Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FOR DEFENSE-RELATED
OR DUAL-USE GOODS AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PORTUGUESE SMES
VOLUME ONE: REPORT
Produced by CH Academy
Commissioned by the Associação Empresarial de Portugal (AEP) and the Industry of Porto
Funded by the European Union (EU), / European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)
Lead authors: Dr Laura J White and Jacob Ford, Marq Consulting Group
Editors: Julie Peterson, Marq Consulting Group, and Carlos Lacerda, CH Academy
Graphic design: Filomena Jorge, CH Academy
January 2017
2 • USA NEXT CHALLENGE
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 7
Acronyms 9
Lists of Figures and Tables 11
Section 1: Introduction 13
1.1 Report Parties 13
1.2 Report Focus 14
1.3 Report Methods 17
1.4 Conclusion 19
Section 2: The Dual-Use Goods Market 21
2.1 Introduction 21
2.2 Characterizing the Market 21
2.3 Political economic changes to the US Market 34
2.4 Security-Related Changes to the US Market 39
2.5 Competitiveness Factors Influence the US Market 43
2.6 Conclusion 47
Section 3: Legal Regulations and Compliance 53
3.1 Introduction 53
3.2 A Practical Overview to Dual-Use Goods
Exports and Imports 54
3.3 International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) 59
3.4 Export Administration Regulations (EAR) 62
3.5 Licenses, Certifications, and Standards 63
3.6 Effects of Legislation 70
There are two primary markets for dual-use goods exports in the
US: the public, government and private, commercial market. The
government market represents the bulk of the market. It is also the
only market for which there are reliable market value indicators,
such as national defense spending. The report identifies in Section
1 that there are complexities and anomalies in statistical reporting
of US and global defense trade, which has shaped the contents of
this report. As such, Section 2 ambitiously aims to characterize the
US defense market through values assigned to the US Department
of Defense spending, cross-references with values from the global
When market distribution characteristics are Opportunities on the commercial market are
taken into the account, the assessment finds, at diverse, and the pace of innovation is rapid. Like
minimum, a $7.7 billion annual import market is other industries assessed in the Next Challenge
open to Portuguese SME. The section finds that USA project, if SMEs have products that are
export competitiveness has led the US to be seen compliant, innovative, and well marketed, the US
as the primary global market for defense, and commercial market offers a plethora of partnership
it is growing. In addition to political economic options. Brand, product, and country of origin
and security-related issues, the policies of the marketing, price and product competitiveness,
new Trump administration affect where growth and technological innovations are the keys to
continues – import or export markets, aerospace or sustainable export development in the commercial
naval, etc – and at this juncture, these policies are market. The section concludes with a table that
in early of stages. The 2018 and 2019 US defense summarizes advantages and disadvantages of
budgets – due to begin negotiations on February entering the US market through these primary
2, 2017 – will provide a better indication of the entry points, as well as highlighting key trade shows
future changes to the US defense market. However, for Portuguese SMEs exporting dual-use goods.
with an annual national defense budget of almost
$600B and the world’s largest single-nation Section 5 concludes the report with a summary
commercial import market, the opportunities for of the previous sections, highlighting key market
Portuguese SMEs on the US remain vast, despite entry points, developments, and sustainable
the scope of any such changes. export development strategy recommendations.
The key finding is that the more resources SMEs
Legal regulations and compliance are the crux have to develop towards export development, the
of Section 3, particularly 1) the International better their chances of success. Although typical
Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and the Export for developing most export markets, this finding is
Administration Regulations (EAR) 2) product particularly true for the US dual-use goods market
licensing, certifications, and standards, 3) relevant where large, US and multinational companies
legislation, such as the Export Control Reform lead with strong, inherit advantages. The goal
(ECR), Buy American Act (BAA), Trade Agreements of the report is to offer SMEs access to the very
Act (TAA), Bayh and Berry Amendments, and resources and knowledge that enables them to
Make It In America Manufacturing Communities compete more effectively and efficiently.
Act (MAMCA), and 4) import and distribution
structure and partnerships. The overall finding of This final section highlights financial, visibility,
the section is that SMEs must first identify where consistency, and competition challenges
they aim to develop exports by identifying and that Portuguese SMEs face in the US market.
targeting final application and in usage in each Comparative advantages in advanced
the governmental and commercial markets to manufacturing, geography, and sophisticated
ensure export readiness in terms of regulation, trade-related infrastructure can be leveraged to
certification, and compliance. build sustainable relationships with potential
partners. Company and product-specific market
Section 4 provides Portuguese SMEs with critical intelligence can help SMEs identify competitive
insight into those two primary US market access advantages to support export development. These
points – the government and commercial markets challenges and advantages reflect the report
– through characterizations of opportunities, parties’ perspectives but also that of US industry
competitors, and partnership tips. The overall experts. Portugal has numerous advantages and
finding of the section reiterates that the bulk of the resources that support SMEs’ export development,
US market is in the public, government contracting and the report finds that investing in the US
sector. Finding one’s niche in the government market offers unprecedented demand and
market – whether in supplying the US military opportunities for growth.
◼ Domestic demand
◼ Exports
◼ GDP (%)
1 The report was written before “Brexit” was negotiated, and the inclusion of the UK among
Portugal’s most similar competitors is subject to change.
2 “Consistently outcompetes” is measured by competition in all 4 or 5 years of the trend
analysis; “occasionally outcompetes” refers to competition within 2 or fewer years.
3 The phrase “military goods and technology” is used here rather than dual-use goods
because this nomenclature is used in the source from which the data is extracted.
4 This figure includes “permanent” and “temporary” exports. Permanent indicates that the
exported product is for “end-use”; whereas, “temporary” exports are products included in
global supply chain that contribute to a finished product but are not, themselves, a finished
product at the point of import.
As the report will reveal, there are unique challenges for Portuguese
SMEs’ export development in the US dual-use goods market –
particularly market dominance by large, multinational companies
and import / export regulations and compliance. Despite the positive
Portuguese export figures in table 1.1, the report parties believe
that these numbers could increase with the attribution to idD –
Portuguese Platform for Defence Industries the responsibility for the
implementation of a national strategy for the external promotion of
5 For example, the Portuguese Ministry of Defense’s report for defense-related trade in 2015
has not yet been released.
1.4 Conclusion
This introductory section has covered the “who”, “what”, and “how”
of this market report on dual-use goods exports. The report is
structured by the six analytical factors presented in Section 1.3. The
first factor (Section 2: the US dual-use goods market) provides a
detailed snapshot of the US defense-related goods market, changes
over the last five years, and extensive competition SMEs face in the
US market.
»» Chemicals-organic
»» Chemicals-inorganic
»» Materials, excluding chemicals
»» Nonmonetary gold
»» Plastic materials
»» Iron and steel, advanced
»» Glass-plate, sheet, etc.
8 As a point of reference and comparison, see US Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas
W. Elmendorf’s March 11, 2015 letter to to US House of Representatives’ Budget Committee
Member Chris Van Hollen confirming the absence of defense-related data and figures
(Congressional Budget Office 2015); see also Schwartz, Sargent, Nelson, and Coral (2016).
9 Interview 5, Appendix 3.
Therefore, the 54% growth rate seen across 2015 would not have
been as significant across 2016. ITA (2016) reports that global
defense spending, however, grew in 2015 for the first time in five
years to approximately $1.7 trillion; this increase is expected to
continue across nations due to shared global security concerns.
The US – the top global defense exporter, explored further below
10 The authors go on to say that as of 2014, the share of DoD contract funds for services
has increased to 44%, but they did not indicate whether increased funding for services
detracted from funding of goods contracts or research and development - only that both
(goods and research and development) had slowed. Schwartz, Sargent, Nelson, and Coral
(2016) found that 44% of contracts went to services, 47% to goods, and 9% to research and
development in 2015.
While the US is not one of the top ten global defense import
markets, it remains a growing dual-use export market. However,
there is a strong concentration of US companies supplying the US
13 Interview 7, Appendix 3.
17 Interview 4, Appendix 3.
18 Interview 5, Appendix 3.
19 Interview 9, Appendix 3.
20 Interview 6, Appendix 3.
21 Ibid.
◼ France
◼ Canada
◼ Japan
◼ UK
◼ Germany
◼ Mexico
◼ Italy
◼ Brazil
◼ China
◼ Israel
22 In 2015, China and Israel were displaced from the top ten by Singapore and Korea.
◼ Korea
◼ Poland
◼ Beligum
◼ Australia
◼ Switzerland
◼ Netherland
◼ Sweden
◼ Turkey
◼ Singapore
Moriarty (2013), also writing for Foreign Affairs, argued that: “even if
that were true, it would be a secondary concern” because the market
is simply accommodating for diverse new suppliers, such as India
or Portugal. The US defense market is a highly sought after export
destination for many companies and countries exporting dual-use
goods, and there is evidence to suggest that cost competitiveness
has become more important than whether a country / company is a
NATO member or partner (Steinbock 2014). However, with a new US
23 To maximize figure readability, exporting countries that were not in the top 20 three or
more years (out of five) are not included in the figure. This includes Taiwan - ranked 20th in
2011 and 19th in 2014 - and Russia - ranked 20th in 2015.
Going forward, any of the strategies that existed in the past are
not going to be the same; we have a new Congress and a new
administration – a very different new administration. The Obama
administration has used things like the Budget Control Act and
a need to raise domestic spending in the past to keep defense
spending in line; they were very successful over the years at
keeping the budget defense down. In most cases, if you look at
Congressional records, you’re going to see that Congress feels
strongly against raising the defense budget.25
26 Interview 8, Appendix 3.
27 See Interview 11, Appendix 3.
28 Interview 2, Appendix 3.
This is particularly the case as the DoD expects the 2018 to 2020
defense budgets to continue to increase at the 1% CAGR, discussed
above. As the second political economic factor discussed in this
section will further below, there are many unknown changes that
will come from President Trump, and the US defense budget and
related market for imported dual-use goods are likely to be affected
whether or not Congress and defense agencies can agree. “A lot of
times what they cut is about finding the path of least resistance;
that will continue to be the case. That maybe is the best strategy
going forward – looking at where there is the least public and
political resistance in the defense budget.”30
29 Interview 8, Appendix 3.
30 Ibid.
31 Ibid.
With the space side, we don’t know so much about what will
happen with the new administration, particularly with NASA,
which is where the money comes from for our – and most others’
– projects. For instance, we’re involved with the new Boeing
space launch rocket. [Trump] could turn that spigot off, and that
would take away about 40% of our sales. It wouldn’t likely happen
overnight; those decisions tend not to happen quickly.32
This shift has seen an increased role from the private sector in the
defense industry, and defense industry expert and former staffer
Several experts agreed that the increased role of the private sector
under President Obama looks to continue under President Trump
given recent rhetoric and campaign pledges. An editor from a
leading defense journal offered: “what everyone is saying that
there will likely be an uptick in defense-related business with the
new administration.”35 While this could signal positive news for
Portuguese SMEs, it is more difficult to say what areas of defense
will be prioritized among the private sector and how open the
US defense market will be to foreign suppliers. President Trump
promised in December an “arms race” and, in particular, to ramp up
the US’ nuclear armaments, and more recently, he seems to have
targeted North Korea for a potential competitor in this arms race.
It’s really fascinating. It’s all about business for him, and so I don’t
know if – and this is speculation – he runs against China and
bullying doesn’t work, does he fall back to more traditional allies?
Does he go more towards Europe in deals that can be made
without having that PR fight first? …It will be very interesting; it’s
so hard to tell right now how much of the new administration’s
manufacturing restoration rhetoric is lip service. I suspect a lot of
it, and it will be hard to move things.”36
34 Interview 4, Appendix 3.
35 Interview 5, Appendix 3.
36 Interview 8, Appendix 3.
37 Interview 5, Appendix 3.
38 Interview 4, Appendix 3.
39 Interview 2, Appendix 3.
40 Interview 9, Appendix 3.
41 Interview 5, Appendix 3.
42 Interview 2, Appendix 3.
»» A strategic shift to the east (China, Russia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, North
Korea) for US security priorities
»» President Trump’s effect on the US defense-related market has
yet to be determined; however, he has already taken action and
pledged to restore American manufacturing. Several interviews
reflected that this could affect the defense industry. President
Trump has also concurred with Congress that defense spending
in certain areas, such as aircraft, needs to be reevaluated with a
priority on reducing spending through increased competition,
although the focus on competition may be exclusively domestic
»» A key issue with US manufacturing, compared to Chinese or
Portuguese, is higher production costs, and with President Trump
and Congress’ displeasure with the size of the US DoD budget,
cost-innovative solutions may find a greater market in the US than
in the past
»» Climate change, cybersecurity, and technological innovation
could stimulate new opportunities for Portuguese SMEs exporting
defense-related goods in diverse new or emerging industries, such
as agriculture, public health and safety, emergency preparedness,
global finance and commerce, and within the sharing economy.
Of the top 100 global defense companies in 2016, the Big Five
ranked first (Lockheed Martin), second (Boeing), fourth (Raytheon),
fifth (General Dynamics), and sixth (Northrop Grumman), and these
rankings have remained fairly consistent for a decade with minor
fluctuation (Defense News 2017).44 US companies occupied 41 of
top 100 defense companies globally in 2016 or 60% of total global
defense revenue, up from 54% in 2014 (Defense News 2017).
43 Interview 4, Appendix 3.
44 See Appendix 1.
45 Interview 1, Appendix 3.
46 See Appendix 2 for a profile of a British defense company ranked in the top 100 global
defense companies.
47 Interview 4, Appendix 3.
From the data in Table 1.1 in Section 1.2, the report calculated that
Portugal’s defense-related exports increased 62% from 2011 to 2014
using Portuguese MoD reports. The analysis found that Portuguese
defense-related exports grew most significantly within Europe, 96%
in four years. On the US market, Portuguese defense-related exports
have increased 66% within this same time period, higher than the
annual growth rate for Portugal’s overall, global defense exports.
This indicated that Portuguese exports were competitive and
growing on the US market.
Considering the limitations that Part 129 of ITAR places on the report
parties’ ability to support SMEs’ defense-related export development,
special analytical importance has been given to identifying markets,
industries, and sectors where Portuguese SMEs can continue to be
competitive on the US dual-use goods market. Section 4 will provide
further detail; however, the analysis of competitiveness factors
shaping the US market, MoD annual reports, and DoD past and
future purchasing assessments indicate that Portuguese SMEs can
be the most competitive in the US defense-related market in the
following categories (in no certain order):
»» Textiles54
»» Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)
»» Aerospace / avionics supply chain parts and construction
»» Biometrics and biosecurity products
»» ICT composite electronics, particularly those in automation,
autonomous communication, GIS, signaling, and laser technology
»» Infrastructure supplies, support, and construction.
54 See the Berry Amendment discussed in Section 3.5 and footnotes 92 and 128 for a further
assessment of textiles competitiveness.
2.6 Conclusion
◼ Goods
◼ Services
The US is not one of the top ten global import markets for defense-
related goods, although it is the largest global exporter and a billion
dollar import market for defense-related goods. To confirm the
initial calculation of a $65B to $100B import market for dual-use
goods, the section conducted a sample analysis of the aerospace
industry, which only comprises part of the US market for dual-use
goods, although a lucrative part. The analysis showed a five-year
average annual import market for aerospace goods of around $53B,
Maybe he’ll really like the F-35 program, and it looks like something
that he can play out in his favor. Maybe he’s going to save only
a million dollars on that or another program, but it looks like a
big PR win. He seems to be more concerned about the public
perspective than the actual savings. Maybe he wants to appear
to win more than he actually does in reality. You could also see a
more adversarial relationship between Congress and the executive,
which could make cutting the defense budget difficult. Overall,
doing anything that would result in job cuts wouldn’t be path of
least resistance, such as cutting the F-35 program. I don’t see a
major change coming in US defense spending.56
56 Interview 8, Appendix 3.
57 Interview 6, Appendix 3.
58 Interview 7, Appendix 3.
59 Interview 11, Appendix 3.
60 See Interview 4, Appendix 3 for better understanding of the US government’s
customization needs.
First, not all countries can export dual-use goods to the US. Portugal
can; at present, Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, and Sudan
cannot. Second, not all defense-related goods can be imported into
the US. There are import restrictions (quotas, tariffs, anti-dumping
and countervailing duties) and / or limitations, such as product
certifications and testing and licensing requirements. One industry
expert believed that licensing requirements may be the biggest
challenge to small or foreign suppliers on the US defense-related
goods market. “It’s very difficult to gain access to the US market, and
in some cases, small or foreign players will partner with the bigger
contractors. The issue is they need certain licenses or accreditations
to work with them, say for a subcontract with the US Army. There
are some hurdles, rules that need to be followed, but it is possible.”62
For items on the USML: “there are two routes [into the US market]…
There’s the military route and the diplomatic route. There’s Foreign
Military Sales or Direct Commercial Sales, the latter of which is based
out of [Department of] State... We have set up end-user controls [for
61 Interview 7, Appendix 3.
62 Interview 5, Appendix 3.
For items on the CCL, which are likely applicable to the majority
of defense-related / dual-use goods SMEs are aiming to export to
the US market, there are end-user checks required before goods
can enter the US. One defense trade expert and former analyst for
the DDTC commented that it would be advantageous for SMEs to
have a thorough understanding of US export controls and offered
that the DDTC has: “set up end-user controls where we train other
countries out of the [local, US] embassy” – highlighting a potential
resource for SMEs looking to export to the US.64 She also added that:
“the US is the model for [the recent] EU export reform.”65 Therefore,
familiarization with US import regulations can also have a positive
impact on SMEs’ EU export processes.
63 Interview 6, Appendix 3.
64 Interview 6, Appendix 3.
65 Ibid.
66 Ibid.
67 Interview 4, Appendix 3.
68 Interview 6, Appendix 3.
69 Interview 9, Appendix 3.
70 Interview 2, Appendix 3.
71 Interview 2, Appendix 3.
72 Interview 1, Appendix 3.
73 Interview 4, Appendix 3.
74 Interview 2, Appendix 3.
To begin, items on the CCL are dual-use, and while there are
significantly high-risk defense-related goods on this list, they are not
regulated as tightly as those on the USML. The CCL is broken into
ten chapters:
75 Interview 7, Appendix 3.
Because there are multiple entry points for new products to enter
the US market – detailed in Section 4 – there are multiple ways to
certify products. A general example of the product certification
process for commercial goods can be understood as follows:
76 Interview 2, Appendix 3.
77 Interview 11, Appendix 3.
78 Interview 4, Appendix 3.
Some steps require three to five business days, and others can
take weeks, such as the full testing phase; all timelines and
documentation requirements are detailed in the Department of
Defense Information Network (DoDIN) APL Process Guide (DISA
2016). SAE International, a global trade association of aerospace,
automotive, and commercial-vehicle industry engineers and
experts, also provides product certification and standards
information and has a dedicated “solutions” key for SMEs.79
After World War II, in heyday of the Cold War, the US released its
technology to allies fighting our mutual causes. At first, this was
a big deal – allowing them to buy our defense manufactured
products – and then we shifted to co-production, where the US
would sell allies some parts. Now, what we are promising allies
is the ability to manufacture defense-equipment themselves
through licensing and also use their own manufactured parts.
There is a lot of talk about this with Japan, allowing them to
There’s the MOU committee at the top, and they are split
between the US DoD and the Swedish Defense Ministry. The
US Army, Navy, Air Force, research labs’ high-ranking officials –
colonels, sergeants, etc – meet with their Swedish counterparts
regularly, and they are interested in new capabilities and
developing new technologies. This will lead to co-development,
co-production between the Swedish military and, say, the US
Army, and then the manufacturing will be outsourced to various
domestic companies from each country, for example, with the
joining of BAE Systems (US) and Bofors (Sweden).82
81 Interview 6, Appendix 3.
82 Interview 11, Appendix 3.
The defense trade expert that provided the history and impact of
co-manufacturing on global markets also referenced 3D printing
as it pertains to defense trade. This is an area of rapid industry
development and regulation of which SMEs should be aware. The
industry expert highlighted a key case where regulation is evolving
called the “Defense Distributed Case”.
83 Interview 2, Appendix 3.
84 See Interview 4 for an explanation of “open source” products.
85 Interview 6, Appendix 3.
SMEs should be aware that they could use ISO resources as well
to help develop their target markets in the US. The ISO conducts
an annual survey of new certifications, allowing SMEs to see how
many entities gained ISO certification, what entities granted those
certifications, what certifications were gained, and where entities
operate. ISO is not the only body that develops certifications; for
example, AS – originally named ARD – develops highly similar
certifications to ISO, such as the AS 9100, which is similar to ISO 9001.
87 This list (and the AS list below) are not exhausted and intended to reflect a sample of
relevant ISO certifications that SMEs may be interested in obtaining.
The BAA, in short, requires that American goods and services be used
for certain federal, state, or local projects. For example, BAA requires
military supplies be contracted and delivered from US businesses.
The exception – and a significant exception at that – is if a country,
typically a strategic ally, has a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)
with the US.90 Portugal also has a MOU with the US, and, therefore,
there are opportunities for SMEs to overcome BAA’s significant
Fourth and related to the BAA, the DoD Appropriation Act of 1973,
known as the Bayh Amendment, was enacted to support US
businesses – particularly when foreign goods and services are available
at a lower cost – for military or government contracts. Fifth and similar
to the Bayh Amendment, the Berry Amendment (1941) – a permanent
feature of the DoD’s appropriations act since 1994 and further
modified in 2007 – established limits on DoD materials contracting,
particularly textiles, to keep US cotton, wool, and silk products
competitive. These textiles are also highly protected in other industries
like home décor (DPAP 2014). There are a number of exceptions to the
Berry Amendment, as there are with BAA, including:
91 This threshold changes to adjust for currency fluctuations, inflation, and other economic
factors; for more detailed guidance, see https://www.fedmarket.com/contractors/Federal-
Acquisition-of-Foreign-Supplies-and-Services.
92 There are a number of additional, detailed exceptions that are generally incorporated
into the last bullet, but SMEs looking for opportunities on the US defense-related market for
textiles should especially understand these exceptions. See citation in bibliography and also
Interview 3, Appendix 3.
93 Interview 1, Appendix 3.
94 Interview 4, Appendix 3.
95 Interview 2, Appendix 3.
96 Interview 7, Appendix 3.
3.8 Conclusion
97 Interview 2, Appendix 3.
98 Interview 4, Appendix 3.
99 Ibid.
100 Interview 1, Appendix 3.
101 Interview 2, Appendix 3.
I can predict that the OCO budget will continue to be funded and
perhaps at a higher level. ERI is a very specific line item because
of everything Trump has said about NATO and continuing
alliances… ERI has come up continually; it’s a new investment. Last
year it was bumped up; whether or not we continue to fund it
hangs in the balance. It pays for a lot of the buildup in the Baltics,
the posturing against Russia. It would require us to change things
significantly in our posturing against Russia to bring that down.
This would be a big decision on [Trump’s] part; it might be one
he chooses to cut, to make a big splash, and play out Russian
relations differently… Ultimately, ERI is in more danger than other
items. I’ll be watching it closely with the EU.104
Most of the time we work with large vendors because they are
reputed to be very secure, which makes things easier, but if you
are good at what you do, there’s always a possibility. Sometimes
parts – specialized aerospace metals, for example – if your
government has access to distribute these resources or can access
your services, you could be competitive for, say, customized
welded pieces at US global outposts. It is possible to supply the
US beyond software and hardware; there is a market for antennas
or parts that go on satellites, as well.106
107 Ibid.
108 Ibid.
The above demonstrates that are many ways to gain access to and
build credibility with US organizations that can contribute to both
short and longer-term sustainable export development strategies.
A record of reliable contracting with US government agencies can
lead to opportunities supplying the US military overseas, just as
supplying NATO, the UN, EDA, or ERI can lead to opportunities with
the US military overseas. It becomes immediately clear that the
opposite is also true. Supplying the US military overseas – in local
(Portuguese or European) projects, when traditional supply lines
are unavailable, or in cases of urgent need – can not only serve as a
point of US market entry with the US military but with other allied
missions and other government agencies. It becomes a regenerative
market, or as the report parties were colloquial told: “once you’re in
with the government, the possibilities are endless”.
This report uncovered that it is not only the Big Five that limit
competition in the US military market. The US military procurement
procedures – intentionally or unintentionally – also deter
competition, something many industry experts argued requires
a complete overhaul. For example, a Californian defense-related
goods company whose primary markets are in naval and aerospace
products said about half of all their business is with the US Navy
because they produce a “niche” product.
With that being half of our business, we feel pretty secure. The
government is reluctant to change suppliers; they are slow to
innovate, but their reluctance is good for us. On the one hand,
it’s easier that we can depend on the business to remain, but it’s
difficult to grow our market share because, we think, we have
most of the market. The government doesn’t want to be sole
source, which is why we don’t have all of the market. They like that
competitiveness or a sense of it.113
The industry expert quoted above believed his company had between
80-85% of the US military market for their particular product. This
demonstrates that – whether at the level of the Big Five or this
114 See Interviews 11, 12, and 13; the report parties also exchanged communications with the
Bulgarian, Czech Republic, Estonian, Irish, Polish, and Spanish embassies in Washington,
DC, although formal interviews were unable to be arranged with the appropriate attachés
within the time frame of the report.
115 See a MOU agreement between the US and Portugal in defense procurement at: http://
www.acq.osd.mil/dpap/Docs/mou-portugal.pdf.
116 Interview 11, Appendix 3.
86 • USA NEXT CHALLENGE
To give another example, the British Embassy in Washington, DC
hosts British MoD staff to conduct this sort of military-to-military,
government-to-government work. A British MoD representative at
the Embassy explained that their work was: “primarily government-
to-government, like the US Department of Commerce overseas; we
do trade and investment promotion, and the defense trade and
general trade policy team work together. We have a somewhat
separate relationship between the trade promotion people and
trade policy people.117
For most countries selling to the US, they won’t be selling an end
product. That’s because that’s where the US is competitive, and
so we won’t try to sell the end system…Be aware that things are
done differently here. For example, even if a product is developed
in the UK, it will probably be made in the US. A good example for
us is Harrier, which in the US is built under license by McDonald
Douglas… That can be a shock for people who are used to just
getting on a train to France to meet and do a deal.
120 Ibid.
121 Interview 13, Appendix 3.
122 Ibid.
The focus of this report and the Next Challenge USA project is
sustainable export development, and there are various strategies
for sustainable dual-use goods export development, demonstrated
through the Swedish, British, and Greek examples.124 Prior to
this report, Portuguese SMEs may have expected supplying the
US military to be far beyond their capabilities. While this may
be the immediate case, this section has demonstrated several
opportunities for SMEs to supply the US military overseas that is
within their capacity, particularly SMEs that are already working with
the Portuguese military, MoD, EDA, ERI, or other defense-related
government and non-government agencies like trade associations.
123 Ibid.
124 See Appendix 2.
As evident from the above list, there are opportunities for SMEs
in defense-related and non-defense agencies. When asked about
which present the greatest market entry options for foreign SMEs,
a senior official replied: “that, again, in my experience, is almost
agency by agency. For example, the Defense Threat Reduction
agency is a huge buyer.”125 There are over a dozen US federal
agencies whose name begins with Defense, such as the Defense
Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Defense Information
Systems Agency, and Defense Security Cooperation Agency.
Surveying all agencies – defense and non-defense specific – and
their needs, the report parties find opportunities for SMEs exporting
dual-use goods related to:
»» Aerospace, aeronautics
»» Aquatic transport and utility
»» Automotive
»» Avionics
»» Biomedical
»» Biometrics
»» Camouflage
»» Cloud networks
»» Cyber security
»» Construction and engineering
»» Electronics
»» Energy technology, storage, and development
»» Environment protection and security
»» Extreme temperature protection systems
»» Geographic information systems
»» Food storage (long-term)
»» Health and human safety, including radiological devices or
devices that use radiation
»» Information, communications, and technology (ICT)
»» Information and data security
»» Personal and physical security, including open air, land, and sea
and buildings
»» Robotics and automation, including unmanned aerial vehicles,
unmanned underwater/aquatic vehicles, and unmanned ground
vehicles
»» Software
»» Storage systems – flexible, dynamic, temporary
126 The report parties continue to encourage SMEs exporting textile-based dual-use goods
to develop their exports for the US market and are aware that the report has also continually
enforced that textiles, specifically, are highly protected in the US defense-related and other
industry markets. This is because the Berry Amendment and, to a lesser extent, the Buy
American Act make specific exceptions for when textiles are and are not permitted to be
sourced from outside the US. For example, SMEs may find there is a market for Kevlar-based
products but not cotton or silk-based textile products or a market for dual-use textiles goods
in the US’ overseas supply chain. Additionally, these exceptions would not apply to the
private, commercial market, which is additionally why the report continues to recommend
these products for SMEs’ export development.
127 The DoD’s acquisitions process for weapons systems is slightly different, and if SMEs are
interested in supplying this demand, they should familiarize themselves with the Defense
Acquisition System. More information on this can also be found in Interview 11, Appendix 3.
128 Interview 6, Appendix 3.
129 Interview 10, Appendix 3.
130 Interview 14, Appendix 3.
131 The report parties reached out to DARPA to inquire further about future trends and
supply needs in the US defense industry. The communications representative responded
that they simply receive too many similar inquires to answer individually and suggested
exploring DARPA’s YouTube channel.
132 Interview 5, Appendix 3.
Each of these resources and the level of detail necessary are highly
individualistic, which is why the report references rather than
discuss them in detail. More essential for SMEs is to know that the
process of becoming a US government contractor is free135 and fairly
simple, and specific guidance is available for foreign companies.
The process begins with registering with the System of Award
Management (SAM) at www.sam.gov. While there is a good amount
of business registration information required throughout the
process – which typically takes between seven to ten days (Grants.
gov 2017) – SMEs will require, generally, two things before they can
register as a government contractor: a Data Universal Numbering
System (DUNS) number and NATO Commercial and Government
Entity (NCAGE) code.
133 See “GSA: Acquisition – Products and Services”, updated October 14, 2016, at https://www.
gsa.gov/portal/category/21027 and “How GSA Buys: Schedules and Contracts”, updated April
8, 2016, at https://www.gsa.gov/portal/content/104109.
134 See “GSA: Acquisition – For Businesses Without GSA Contracts” updated September 15,
2016, at https://www.gsa.gov/portal/content/104121 and the GSA’s Office of Small Business
Utilization, updated on January 10, 2017, at https://www.gsa.gov/portal/category/21015.
135 SMEs should be aware that new SAM registrants can be subjected to phishing scams
where they are contacted by email or phone and prompted to pay for their SAM registration;
SAM is completely free to register and bid.
136 See also the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) portal at https://eportal.
nspa.nato.int/public/eportal.aspx.
140 GSA offers tips for how to generate business with the US government while waiting on
GSA schedule applications to be processed, and most involve some form of subcontracting;
see GSA “How can I do business with the government while I am waiting to get on a GSA
Schedule? at https://www.gsa.gov/portal/category/27115.
141 As with SAM, SMEs should be aware that there are many GSA phishing scams where
companies are contacted by email or phone, offered an unusually low price to get their
goods or services on the GSA schedule. There are websites that list companies that have
been involved in such scams in the past. If SMEs decide to use a GSA schedule application
service – and there are many with excellent reputations and services that ease the burden
the process – they should research the company extensively and ask for past client
references with contact information to cross-check testimonials.
142 The GSA offers a “Vendor Toolkit” to help companies assess whether getting on the
GSA schedule is a good fit for their business; see more at https://vsc.gsa.gov/RA/toolBox.
cfm and a particular assessment tool for small businesses at https://www.gsa.gov/portal/
category/108071. There is also a larger site for GSA vendor support at https://vsc.gsa.gov/.
143 The report parties cannot definitively confirm the accuracy of the following statement,
but in considering several GSA schedule application services, the report parties find this
assessment consistent. “The average GSA contractor makes $2.5M in the first 2-3 years, and
most companies take this long to do business well on GSA; most are doing some business
within 2-3 months of getting on the schedule. The top third of GSA contractors make
$20M annually, and most of these have hired an ex-government employee who has good
connections with the 2-4 agencies that they want to work with. The middle third makes
about $1M annually from GSA goods or services, and this is because they haven’t fully
devoted someone to GSA business development. The bottom third who don’t make up to
$1M annually don’t do so because they are waiting for contracts to come to them. Getting
GSA contracts without actively working the schedule is possible, but it is not as lucrative as
actively seeking business, like any other form of business development.”
To be clear, SMEs do not apply for grants. Rather, SMEs can use these
websites as points of business development research in order to see
where active new project funding is taking place. For example, by
searching grants available for federally subsidized housing for new
projects on or near military or defense-related operations, SMEs could
locate organizations that have received funds and are in need of
dual-use goods and defense-related building supplies in developing
potential partnerships. How SMEs use resources around federal
grant programs depends entirely on their strategies for business
development, potential partner searches, export development
investment resources, goods, and capabilities.
Because the scope of possibilities and opportunities are so
large and requires in-depth knowledge about individual SMEs’
businesses, products, and goals, this section examines one of the
most relevant opportunities for Portuguese SMEs exporting dual-
use goods – the Law Enforcement Support Office (LESO) Program,
better known as the 1033 Excess Property Program. The 1033
program was created though the National Defense Authorization
Act (1997) as part of the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), which
replaced the 1208 program (1990) that was mostly focused on
supplying counter-drug activities (DLA 2017). The US spends over
$100B annually on police agencies, and a US export compliance
specialist suggested that: “for European companies that are looking
to or able to sell to government agencies, I would direct them to
the police and border security agencies; the US is a huge market for
that” (Justice Policy Institute 2012).147
The US controls the third largest police force, globally, behind China
and India. State and local police agencies represent a large market
for dual-use goods, and the 1033 program focuses on supplying law
enforcement with “tactical” goods, including weapons, ammunition,
high-performance uniforms and gear, communications devices,
specialty utility or armored vehicles, crowd control devices, optical
equipment, and robotic equipment. As explained by a state
public safety and 1033 program distribution official, “the Federal
Government has authorized that local governments, including
police agencies, may acquire excess military equipment”.148 The 1033
149 Ibid.
150 Interview 9, Appendix 3.
151 See Interview 9, Appendix 3.
152 Interview 3, Appendix 3.
153 See the end of Section 4.3 for relevant trade shows.
154 Interview 9, Appendix 3.
155 Ibid.
156 Export.gov maintains up-to-date information on where trade flows are occurring in all US
states and major urban areas that are classified by North American Industry Classification System product codes.
157 Ibid.
158 The majority of American city or county transport authorities have specially funded
defense units.
100 • USA NEXT CHALLENGE
response situations, or to deliver emergency provisions to remote
areas. Perhaps when developing new technologies, SMEs should
also consider how public schools and universities could use that
technology to communicate or protect students in emergency
situations. Several defense industry experts suggested to us that
one key area where dual-use goods are growing is in areas where
previously only military applications were conceived. Additionally,
if products can be used to protect schools and universities, the
technology can likely be applied to other public settings, such as
hospitals, cinemas, nightclubs, restaurants, markets, and malls that
often experience the same threats and emergency situations.
One factor that characterizes the strong and growing US market for
dual-use goods is the US’ extensive culture of self-preservation and
emergency preparedness linked to the rugged frontier on which
the country was settled. A cultural component shapes this historical
factor, and SMEs’ ability to understand this culture can guide their
strategies for sustainable export development. The need for self-
preservation and emergency preparedness began, historically, with
major crises that shaped the US, such as the Great Depression or
Cold War. Following the large-scale starvation that occurred in the
There is a strong market for SMEs that are able to think about
emergency preparedness, personal security, and hazard protection
creatively, for example marketing dual-use goods as emergency
preparedness alternatives to weapons, where US demand and
Portuguese exports declined last year. For some, emergency
preparedness is a staple of life, such as in mountainous regions
where heavy snowfall interrupts power and water supply for weeks
at a time. For others, dual-use goods supply hobbies like skeet
shooting and paintball, and this is not exclusive to basic dual-use
goods. In interviews, the report parties learned of an individual in
Colorado that maintains a personal satellite monitoring station in
their basement; there are also several individuals who, as a matter
of necessity, maintain their own radio communication networks in
Nevada farmland.
159 It should be noted that 2 of these examples are run by government, indicated by the
.gov extension.
160 Interview 15, Appendix 3.
163 Bulletproof backpacks are an excellent example of innovating new uses for dual-use goods.
165 Compare the example of Elvior, an Estonian dual-use good exporter on the US market,
to the Bulgarian example, Arsenal AD, in Appendix 2.
166 Interview 2, Appendix 3.
Almost all experts also highlighted that the way the government
approaches procurement and technological innovation is at a
critical point, and slowly, the government is beginning to change.
Some industry experts working with the government are hopeful
that President Trump’s anti-regulatory policy platform may make it
easier for the government to conduct defense-related businesses,
but removing regulatory burdens will be a cumbersome process,
likely to move at a glacial pace. An effect of this government
marketplace procurement and business procedure is that it has, in
some areas, also pervaded the private sector, as they look to pass
administrative and bureaucratic burdens down the supply line.
4.4 Conclusion
This section of the report has helped SMEs become export ready by
characterizing the two primary US markets for dual-use goods: the
public, government and private, commercial markets. For both the
scope of opportunity, trends, demand, products, top companies,
and partnerships were assessed, including cultural factors that
shape demand and business relationships, to help SMEs recognize
the diverse opportunities available. SMEs were encouraged to
be innovative and creative in developing sustainable strategies,
thinking about dual-use goods demands from the perspectives of
different sectors and industries.
173 This list represents a mere sampling; for more US-based trade shows and events, see:
http://www.eventsinamerica.com. The relevant industry SMEs are targeting (medical,
government, business, etc) can be selected from a drop-down menu and further narrowed
as needed for SMEs’ searches.
Market
Advantages Disadvantages
Access Points
Market entry point for majority of du- Competition primarily among the Big
Governmental
al-use Five
Exclusive production / sales rights can Private sector partners may not pro-
drive demand, increase visibility mote products
»» Textiles
»» Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)
»» Aerospace / avionics supply chain parts and construction
»» Biometrics and biosecurity products
»» ICT composite electronics, particularly those in automation,
autonomous communication, GIS, signaling, and laser technology
»» Infrastructure supplies, support, and construction.
Portugal has also grown in: “1) monitoring and controlling national
air, land and sea routes; 2) developing high-bandwidth, real-
time communications and data systems capable of transmitting
information across military echelons and government organizations;
3) and developing unmanned air, land and sea systems” (Kenyon
2010). Simply because a specific defense-related article was not
included in the report by name does not indicate that there is
no significant demand. Indeed, the beauty of the dual-use goods
export industry is that there is such vast demand for diverse goods.
The US is a strong market for a quality products, with competitive
prices, that are well marketed, especially those with multiple uses
and applications.
5.2a Challenges
Portuguese SMEs face significant challenges in the US market;
the report parties are similarly SMEs and know first-hand the
challenges of developing and growing in the dynamic US business
environment, even in government contracting. The most thorough
export development and growth strategies can easily go wrong.
Succeeding at any level of business – in the US, Portugal, or globally
– requires the ability to think strategically and pivot at critical
moments. This requires solid market knowledge about the overall
government structure, buyers, and the many ways to access supply
chains within the system. This requires persistent action and skill,
and the best way to prevent unforeseen events from disrupting
export development strategies is to be resourceful and flexible as
market opportunities evolve.
Over the years it has become difficult for people who want to
do business in the industry, EAR, ITAR – all that creates barriers…
I try to make two points to them; number one: this industry is
incredibly different than when they entered. Number two is that a
lot of rules, regulations, audits, and reports that if you required this
in a real marketplace, this is not something anyone else would
tolerate. It drives up overhead… The result is that fewer people
want to be in this business.174
SMEs should ensure they are fully informed about all their products’
particulars, including compliance (certifications, licensing, etc), as
well as how products fit in the specific distribution structure and
business model for email, phone, or face-to-face meetings with
potential partners. An industry expert mentioned that one of the
most important things for SMEs to know is that they are competing
in the same market with the Big Five, and any potential partner
will expect SMEs to demonstrate the same level of regulatory and
market competency.
176 See Appendix 2 for profiles of Bulgarian and Estonian dual-use goods exporters on the
US market.
177 Interview 11, Appendix 3.
181 The report does not advise analyzing trends beyond 2008, as the export volume and
trade data will not be consistent with continued post-recession economic patterns and
trade flows.
182 The report would recommend conducting a “box and whisker plot” analysis to see
means, medians, and outliers of export volume.
183 The report suggests a highly complex “multivariate regression analysis” to indicate what
variables likely contributed to irregular export volume and to incorporate supply and value
chain analyses.
This brings the report to its final point; SMEs are also encouraged to
utilize work that local and national business chambers and trade
associations have done to support Portuguese development and
growth. For instance:
idD in Action
Evolution of DTIB
222 18 297
No. published opportunities No. clusters reached No. DTIB companies reached
121 16 258
No. published opportunities No. clusters reached No. DTIB companies reached
3 2 47
No. published opportunities No. clusters reached No. DTIB companies reached
1 1 20
35 197
ACIMDA
October 2014
(Colombia)
ABIMDE
April 2015
(Brazil)
FIBRENAMICS
June 2015
(Portugal)
AIP-CCI
August 2015
(Portugal)
AEP
September 2015
(Portugal)
PGZ
November 2015
(Poland)
NKGBS
November 2015
(Japan)
CCILB
November 2015
(Baltic Countries)
ISCTE
January 2016
(Portugal)
Exército Português
October 2016
(Portugal)
AAPJ
December 2016
(Japan)
GAO (2017i), “ITAR - Part 121 - the United States Munitions List”, up-
dated on January 12, 2017, available at: http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/
text-idx?SID=86008bdffd1fb2e79cc5df41a180750a&node=22:1.0.1.13.5
8&rgn=div5.