AP Statistics some et ee Period. Unit 08 = HW #47 Chi Square: Goodness of Fit Test 1, Acme Toy Company prints baseball cards. The company cicims that 30% of the cards ore rookies, 60% veterans, and 10% are All-Stars, The cards are sold in packages of 100. Suppose a randomly selected package of cards has 50 rookies, 45 veterans, and 5 All-Stars. Is this consistent with Acme's claim? Use a 0.05 level of significance. Sta: Ho: The Stated dismpunonot Acme Toy Companys baseball Cards is correct. A005 a: The StoHed Cismiourion of Acme Toy Company! Dabo cards W nor Correct. PIN” Random: randomiy suleced package Y I07 COME NON. (Cece Fyry SCOCOLL revEKe Card s/A yess ¥ ers gs) USO < CU Vea CALCU eo J DOL OM ALLSTON COMAY/aiyus Large (OUMS: expected Count: 3075 ¥ rokies Grea 2S Goons v vererons BECAUR Our Condittory art IOVS ¥ A\i-Sters vine we Wil perfor a YZ veer For goodness oF Fit. deez p-valug = 0.000065 42 CONUUAL! BECAULK oUF p-value 0.00005592 15 LSS tan Our SigniAcanw evel 4 +005, We Feet HAR WU There (3 Convineivy emaene Har Hae Sated distmbution oF ACL Toy Companys DasbOU Caras 1S tinconter.dr, TU NST. OF StU WE equity for Slats Cy fe Wy Ae nanw ebuas i a 2. Asludy was performed to determine whether or not the name of G Course Ba SAGHES OF rer student registrations. A statistics course in a lorge schoo! disirict was given 4 different names in ‘a couse catalog. Each name corresponded fo the exact same statistics course. A random sample of student registrations was recorded and the resulis are given below: ‘Course Name _[ Number of Registrations_| € ype ces Statistical Applications 25 Wait, Stalisticai Reasoning 22 21s | [Statistical Analysis 30 2A26 The Practice of Statistics 40 z 2425 TOTAL nz Wt Do these data suggest the name of the course has an effect on siudent registrations? Conduct an appropriate statistical test to support your conclusion. SHAH: Ho! The NaMus oF Sranstes cours AO Not have cay eefeer On tu Number oF Studer WhO register fOr them. a: Te noes of Sans nes COUN AO rave on cheer on fue nunber OF SUGLU Wid register fy tun BION: Random: yanclom Sane of SHdwNr eqitranon.” 1s. CONAINONE yet WO SAU SMOG who TA Syethonic$ Large COUN: GU Vepece COUN Gre WT YA = 24.28 7/5" RaQ, OU CONdIMONY Gre YU, We WIL purvovin A 2 UE fv BNDAKES oF FIt. WE ye 2 o- smash ,(22-2425)* GO-22S, As 2425 24,25 fone aipe vege sranistre = W385 Prva = 9.00435 Contes BECHULK OU PrValue 0044223 WS Greater Man our SigmiPicanw level ¢=0.08, we tan! to reyeck HAL MUL. Thert 16 not COnvinelg OVAL HAE He Names of (tangs Courtes pave an effect on Hie nuunileer of SMALLS WD register fOr Hu A200gy: He pirds Od WET pre eee partrculad tres types vs tt au. 3. Researchers studied the behavior of birds that were searching for seeds and insects in an Oregon forest. In this forest, 54% of the trees were Douglas firs, 40% were ponderosa pines, and 6% were other types of trees. At a randomly selected time during the day, the reseorchers observed 156 red-breasted nuthatches: 70 were in Douglas firs, 79 in ponderosa pines, and 7 in other types of frees. Do these data provide convincing evidence that nuthatches prefer Particular types of irees when they're searching for seeds and insects? State? Ho: The Gismounon oF Ked-preasied nuhatcha is eQual QMdng CU Tree typ (Nan Oregon forcst. dco.es Bat Mu dismpurion Of Ho- preasied nuthatius is Nor CUM Among OWA tree Hypes in ah Liev DIAM: vanclom: randomuy celecita time Y (Aka ISU : (W/, CONAINEN 1602 OU Fed -breanted TARGoMy Coen Nelo NUENAACHLS in An OCGA Hen VET) Large? Counts Iswos4= BUI47, 5 douglas tid ¥ ISW-0HO= Y2.4 % S pondeesa pines 1su'0.0¥* 4.3 7% otuertrees ~ BECaUr our conditons GE Wut, we will pewform OW? eSt for cod OF Ft BBs yas Goud, Ga -624), eased? _ e424 wna ‘chad 7.4182 OF 2 P-VALLUA = 0.024499 ConCude : BeCLUL QU pvaLLt 0.0245 6 ks Man our SIQMIA CANE tewtl A 20.05, we reject Hue Wun. TUE Convindtry euiaunee Har rede preasied Mud hatches prefer panictiar fypur OF ARE WNALN Haye Seorcluing for ; 7 Feed, invects (ihwir AtsmbUHOA tS hot cien, anory Cua ave Hypes).|. Faked numbers in tox retums, invoices, or expense account claims often display patterns that aren't present in legitimate records. Same patterns are obvious and easily avoided by a Clegver crook. Others are subtler. Its a striking fact that the first digits of numbers in legitimate records often follow a model knows and Benford's law. Call the first digit of a randomly chosen record Xfor short. Benford's law gives this probability model for X {note that the first digit cannot be 0). 1" Digit i ry 3 [4 5 16 - 8 9 Probability | 0.301 10.176 [0.125 [0.097 | 0.079 [0.067 | 0.058 | 0.051 0.046 expected 1$-25 AA B25 2H2s 41s Wis MS 21S WS A forensic accountant who is familiar with Benfora’'s law inspects a random sample of 250 invoices from a company that is accused of committing fraud. The table below displays the sample data. Voigt [1 2 3 4 516 7 {8 9 Probability | 61 50143 [34] 25 16 [7 8 é a. Are these data inconsistent with Benford’s law? Carry out on appropriate test where @ = 0.05 level to support your answer. Save: ATW GIGMipwrTdn OF Ast Cligits oa a parmoutar Company Fo\lows Ben fords law. cos TH TAs AismbUtbn OF fist algits at a parnicullar Company coer not follows Benford LAW Plan: random: rondom Samp a 2.50 invois 7 WO/, COndITION: N=296 2500¢Q\\ invoices at rns Company Lage (Oulet: arteypeceed courts (Shown above) ort 7S 4 Because OUV CONaIMOKS are mut we Will ma xt dest for Goodness of Fit to yes (uits25)", BoO-HY J?) (43 325)*y IS. 44 vo $ Bs test SrANTNE= YV.AOTS AFF p-vAWL= 0.00000 2104 CONCUUCe: Beca@uye our p-valur 21a’ is Wy Hran our SIQMMACANLE Hut A =0.05 He Fee CE HAL MULL. There ConMining CIhEnee HAak He Clismburiba ef Ash aig: tt for tuls company (oes hor Follow BenfordsLaw. FRAUDS b. Describe a Type | érror and a Type Il error in this setfing, and give a possible sequence of each. Which do you think is more serious? Carel Gist. QoS Follow Hu Law bur we Hunkit mt SO we ActuKcl tem of fraud wrongly. Typell: Thy Ast. doesnt follow Hu Law Mut we Kune CE does So they ger away with Aqua.