Assignment

Course: Business Research Methodology

Course code: ALD 4201

Submitted to:

Dr. Md. Abdul Hannan Mia

Professor

Department of Management Studies

Faculty of Business Studies

Bangladesh University of Professionals

Submitted by:

Kazi Imamuzzaman Imon

Roll: 19241144

Section: B

Batch: 2019

Department of Management Studies

Faculty of Business Studies

Bangladesh University of Professionals

Date of Submission: 10th August, 2023

Question: Ex post facto versus prior evaluation.

Answer:

Ex post facto evaluation and prior evaluation are two different approaches to assessing the
effectiveness of alternative research proposals in addressing the poor inventory management
situation of Company A. Let's delve into each approach and discuss the issues associated with
them:

(a) Ex Post Facto Evaluation:

Ex post facto evaluation, also known as retrospective evaluation, involves assessing the
outcomes and impacts of a decision or action after it has been implemented. In the context of
the alternative research proposals:

1. Advantages:

Real-world Results: Ex post facto evaluation provides insights into the actual outcomes and
consequences of implementing Proposal 1 or Proposal 2.

Historical Data: An audit of last year's transactions (Proposal 1) would allow for a
comprehensive understanding of past inventory management practices and their effects.

Informed Decision-making: It provides the opportunity to learn from past experiences and
make informed decisions for the future.

2. Issues and Challenges:

Limited Control: Since the evaluation is conducted after the fact, there might be limited
control over the factors that influenced the outcomes.

Confounding Variables: External factors or changes that occurred between the time of
implementation and evaluation could confound the results, making it difficult to attribute
outcomes solely to the proposals.

Delayed Insights: Ex post facto evaluation might lead to delayed identification of problems
or issues, making it challenging to address them promptly.

(b) Prior Evaluation:

Prior evaluation, also known as prospective evaluation or ex ante evaluation, involves

assessing the potential outcomes and impacts of different options before implementing any of
them. In the context of the alternative research proposals:
1. Advantages:

Informed Planning: Prior evaluation helps in making more informed decisions by

considering potential outcomes, risks, and benefits before implementing a proposal.

Risk Mitigation: Identifying potential issues and challenges in advance allows for proactive
risk mitigation strategies.

Resource Allocation: It assists in allocating resources more efficiently by choosing the

proposal that is likely to have the most positive impact.

2. Issues and Challenges:

Predictive Accuracy: Predicting future outcomes based on theoretical models or

assumptions might not always accurately reflect real-world results.

Incomplete Information: It can be challenging to accurately forecast the complex and

dynamic interactions involved in inventory management, potentially leading to incomplete
evaluation.

Implementation Bias: There could be a bias towards a particular proposal due to various
factors, including personal preferences or organizational politics.

In conclusion, the choice between ex post facto evaluation and prior evaluation depends on
Company A's goals, timeline, and risk tolerance. Ex post facto evaluation provides insights
based on historical data and real-world outcomes, while prior evaluation offers the advantage
of proactive planning and risk mitigation. A comprehensive evaluation approach may involve
a combination of both methods to account for past experiences and potential future impacts.
Question: (b) Evaluation using option analysis and decision theory.

Answer:

In the context of evaluating the alternative research proposals for improving inventory
management at Company A, let's discuss how option analysis and decision theory could be
applied. Specifically, we'll focus on Proposal 1 (audit of last year's transactions) and Proposal
2 (study and recommend changes to materials department procedures and systems).

Option Analysis:

Option analysis involves assessing and comparing different options or alternatives based on
their potential outcomes and associated risks. In this case, Company A can use option
analysis to evaluate the two research proposals.

1. Proposal 1 (Audit of Last Year's Transactions):

 Potential benefits: The audit can provide a comprehensive overview of past

inventory management practices, highlighting areas of inefficiency, discrepancies,
and potential improvements.
 Risks and limitations: The audit may not capture current or future challenges, and its
recommendations might be based solely on historical data, which may not be relevant
in changing business environments.
 Flexibility: The audit might have limited flexibility in adapting to emerging trends or
technology advancements.

2. Proposal 2 (Changes to Materials Department Procedures and Systems):

 Potential benefits: Studying and recommending changes to procedures and systems

can address current issues and provide adaptable solutions for on going and future
inventory management challenges.
 Risks and limitations: Implementing new procedures and systems can be resource-
intensive and may face resistance from employees. It may also take time to see
substantial improvements.
 Flexibility: This proposal offers flexibility to incorporate innovative practices and
technology as the business landscape evolves.
Decision Theory:

Decision theory provides a structured framework for making decisions under uncertainty. It
involves assigning probabilities to various outcomes and considering potential payoffs.

1. Proposal 1:

 Probabilities: The probability of the audit accurately identifying all areas of concern
is uncertain, as it relies on historical data that might not fully capture current
complexities.
 Payoffs: If the audit identifies significant improvements, the payoff could be
substantial in terms of reduced costs and streamlined operations. However, if the audit
overlooks critical issues, the payoff could be limited.

2. Proposal 2:

 Probabilities: The probability of successful implementation and adoption of new

procedures and systems depends on factors such as employee training, resistance, and
integration challenges.
 Payoffs: If the changes lead to effective inventory management, the payoff could be
long-term efficiency gains. On the other hand, if implementation is difficult or doesn't
yield the desired results, the payoff may be lower than expected.

Ultimately, Company A should carefully evaluate the risks, benefits, probabilities, and
potential payoffs associated with each proposal. They might also consider a hybrid approach
that leverages insights from both proposals. Decision-makers could assign weights to various
factors and conduct a quantitative analysis to determine which proposal aligns better with the
company's goals, resources, and risk tolerance. It's important to note that the evaluation
process should be iterative and adaptive, considering new information and adjusting the
analysis as necessary.