EQUITY RESEARCH

ANTM - Result update - 08 May 2023

CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

BUY
TP: Rp3,000 (+47.1%)
ANTAM
Solid nickel ore segment lifts1Q23 earnings

Sector Mining 1Q23 performance exceeding expectation, despite Rp290.7 bn forex loss
Aneka Tambang (ANTM) reported a net profit of Rp 1.6 tn. This represents a 13.5% YoY in
Bloomberg Ticker ANTM IJ
1Q23, e exceeding our and consensus expectation by meeting 37.6% and 37.3%, of FY23F
respectively. 1Q23 revenue saw a sizeable increase of 18.9% YoY, reaching Rp11.6 tn, and
Share Price Performance
formed 25.4% of our FY23F. We note that an increase in both cost of sales (66.2%) and
Last price (Rp) 2,040 opex (16.4%) resulted in operating profit to only grow by 18.1% YoY, but still forming
Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 163.0/11.1
35.6% of our FY23F. While Rp290.7 bn in forex loss weighed profitability. On a quarterly
basis, the company was excellent with a 39.3% QoQ increase in net profit, largely driven by
3m 6m 12m excellent cost control with cost of revenue and opex both declining by 12.8% and 8.3%,
Absolute (%) -10.1 2.8 -12.4 respectively.

Relative to JCI (%) -8.9 6.5 -15.3 Strong nickel ore performance in 1Q23
52w High/Low price (Rp) 2,670/1,535 The company's nickel ore production and sales volume grew 16.8% and 47.8% YoY,
forming 36.2% and 45.7% of our FY23F, respectively. Ferronickel segment underwhelmed
with production volume decreased by 4.3% YoY and 13.0% QoQ and sales volume
3,000 10% plummeted 24.3% YoY and 38.2% QoQ achieving 19.9% and 15.7% of our FY23, in line with
2,500 0% our expectation as we expect the company to ramp up production in the coming quarters.
2,000 Gold segment recorded positive growth in its sales volume by 9.9% YoY and 172.4% QoQ in
-10%
1,500 line with our expectation forming 22.8% of our FY23F.
-20%
1,000
500 -30% Fine tuning our FY23-24F earnings
- -40% With nickel ore segment exceeding our expectation we increased our FY23-24F nickel ore
sales volume by 18.8% to 8.9 mn tons and 9.0 mn tons. We raised our FY23-24 F nickel ore
May-22

May-23
Feb-23
Nov-22
Aug-22

ASP by 11.1% to USD50/ton as we were too conservative in our previous estimates. While
maintaining our other segments, this raised our FY23-24F revenue by 3.6% and 3.1% to
ANTM 1yr Rel. to JCI (RHS) Rp47.3 tn and Rp54.3 tn. We tweaked our Fy23-24F cost and opex estimates, resulting in
FY23-24F operating profit to increase by 28.4% and 21.8% to Rp6.9 tn and Rp9.7 tn.
Leaving our other income and tax rate intact, this resulted in a 24.9% and 19.7% increase
in our FY23-24F bottom-line to Rp5.5 tn and Rp7.6 tn.
Outstanding shrs (mn) 24,031
Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/USDmn) 49,023/3,341 Maintain our Buy rating with TP of Rp3,000/share
Subsequent to earnings revisions, we maintained our TP at Rp3,000, which was derived
Estimated free float (%) 35.0
from a lower EV/EBITDA valuation of 9.2x (was 10.5x), previously, due to weaker nickel
Major shareholders outlook. Therefore we reiterated our Buy rating on ANTM as our TP still offers a very
Inalum 65.0% attractive 47.1% upside to our current share price. We continue to like ANTM due to its
nickel producing capabilities, ensuring a relatively stable earnings growth from solid
Public 35.0% medium term nickel outlook. We select ANTM as one of our top picks due to due to its
ongoing partnership with IBC and CATL to develop EV battery and its diversified metal
portfolio.
EPS Consensus
Downside risk to our call
Ciptadana Cons. % Diff Possible downside risks to our call; 1) nickel price volatility, 2) relaxing government nickel
2023F 230.0 177.3 29.7 ore export restrictions and 3) delay on EV battery downstream project 4) and operational
2024F 316.8 191.7 65.2
disruption resulting in lower production and sales target.

2025F 391.1 242.2 61.5 Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights

Year to 31 Dec 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Revenue (Rpbn) 38,446 45,930 47,350 54,311 60,153
Operating profit (Rpbn) 2,738 3,942 6,884 9,689 12,095
Net profit (Rpbn) 1,862 3,821 5,526 7,612 9,399
EPS (Rp) 77.5 159.0 230.0 316.8 391.1
EPS growth (%) 62.0 105.2 44.6 37.7 23.5
Thomas Radityo EV/EBITDA (x) 13.7 10.8 6.2 4.3 3.3
+ 2557 4800 Ext.795 PER (x) 26.3 12.8 8.9 6.4 5.2
radityothomas@ciptadana.com PBV (x) 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.5
Dividend yield (%) 0.8 1.9 5.8 8.5 11.6
http://www.ciptadana.com ROE (%) 8.9 16.1 20.9 25.4 27.9
Source : ANTM, Ciptadana Estimates

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
ANTM - Result update - 08 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 2: Financial exhibit

Rp bn 1Q23 1Q22 YoY 1Q23 4Q22 QoQ FY23 1Q23/23F
Revenue 11,593 9,747 18.9% 11,593 12,247 -5.3% 45,725 25.4%
Cost Of Revenue -8,744 -7,299 19.8% -8,744 -10,024 -12.8%
Gross Profit 2,850 2,448 16.4% 2,850 2,223 28.2% 8,883 32.1%
Gross Margin 24.6% 25.1% -0.5% 24.6% 18.2% 6.4%

Operating Expenses -938 -830 13.1% -938 -1,023 -8.3%

Operating Profit 1,911 1,618 18.1% 1,911 1,200 59.2% 5,362 35.6%
Operating Margin 16.5% 16.6% -0.1% 16.5% 9.8% 6.7%

Other Inc/Exp 208 238 -12.5% 208 363 -42.7%

Pretax profit 2,120 1,856 14.2% 2,120 1,564 35.6%
Tax -456 -391 16.9% -456 -369 23.5%

Net Profit 1,663 1,465 13.5% 1,663 1,194 39.3% 4,424 37.6%
Net Margin 14.3% 15.0% -0.7% 14.3% 9.8% 4.6%
Source : ANTM, Ciptadana Estimates

Exhibit 3: Operational exhibit

Production Volume Unit 1Q23 1Q22 YoY 1Q23 4Q22 QoQ FY23F 1Q23/FY23F
Ferronickel Tni 5,437 5,681 -4.3% 5,437 6,246 -13.0% 27,300 19.9%
Nickel Ore Wmt (mn) 3.4 2.9 16.8% 3 2.4 41.5% 9.4 36.2%
Gold t oz (K) 9.8 11.8 -17.2% 10 9.7 1.0% 42.3 23.1%

Sales Volume Unit 1Q23 1Q22 YoY 1Q23 4Q22 QoQ FY23F 1Q23/FY23F
Ferronickel Tni 4,287 5,660 -24.3% 4,287 6,941 -38.2% 27,300 15.7%
Nickel Ore Wmt (mn) 3.4 2.3 47.8% 3.4 2.2 56.5% 7.5 45.7%
Gold t oz (K) 232 211 9.9% 232 85 172.4% 1,020 22.8%

Source : ANTM, Ciptadana Estimates

Exhibit 4: Earnings revision

2023F 2024F
in Rp bn Old New Chg Old New Chg
Revenue 45,725 47,350 3.6% 52,670 54,311 3.1%
Cost of Revenue -36,843 -36,820 -0.1% -40,660 -40,439 -0.5%
Gross profit 8,883 10,530 18.5% 12,010 13,871 15.5%
Gross margin (%) 19.4% 22.2% 2.8% 22.8% 25.5% 2.7%
EBITDA 5,961 7,483 25.5% 8,581 10,316 20.2%
Operating Profit 5,362 6,884 28.4% 7,954 9,689 21.8%
Operating margin (%) 11.7% 14.5% 2.8% 15.1% 17.8% 2.7%
Net Profit 4,424 5,526 24.9% 6,358 7,612 19.7%
Net margin (%) 9.7% 11.7% 2.0% 12.1% 14.0% 1.9%

Nickel ore segment

Nickel ore sales volume (mn tons) 7,535 8,948 18.8% 7,610 9,037 18.8%
Nickel ore ASP (USD/ton) 45 50 11.1% 45 50 11.1%
Source : Ciptadana Estimates

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
ANTM - Result update - 08 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 5: Valuation
Valuation Summary Value
23F EBITDA (Rp bn) 7,483.2
Target Multiple (x) 9.2
EV (Rp bn) 69,144.6
Plus net cash (Rp bn) 2,774.8
Equity Value (Rp bn) 71,919.4
Number of share (mn) 24,030.8
Fair Value (Rp/Sh) 2,992.8
Target Price (rounded up Rp/sh) 3,000
Source : Ciptadana Estimates

Exhibit 6: ESG assessment

Company description Mining Company

Environmental
1. ANTM applies energy efficiency policies in each of its
business segments in its bid to limit its carbon emission.
2. The company is committed to complying with government
regulations regarding waste and good mining practices
3. Mining involves heavy machinery use, road construction,
and the upheaval of rock structures. Subsequently, the
ecology of a mining area is often damaged or destroyed
during and after use.

Social
1. The company possesses an impeccable health and safety
track record
2. ANTM formed a crisis management team to minimize the
impact of the pandemic within the organization
ESG-related 3. The company created a digital library in East Jakarta, to
opportunity or risk promote literacy culture for children
assessment 4. The company improves infrastructures, build clinics,
schools and places of worship to improve the quality of life
surrounding its mining areas.
5. Currently ANTM is embroiled in a litigation case and could
be liable to pay around Rp800 bn in damages.
Government
1. The company has received ISO 37001 Anti-Bribery
management system certification. This highlighted the
company’s commitment to the best implementation of Good
Corporate Governance (GCG)
2. ANTM appointed an audit committee in order to carry out
an overview and maximize the effectiveness of the board of
commissioners on the quality of financial information and
other information including risk control and compliance.
3. Government ownership provides stability but also risk of
intervention.

Source: ANTM

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
ANTM - Result update - 08 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 7 - Income Statement

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Revenue 38,446 45,930 47,350 54,311 60,153
COGS -32,087 -37,720 -36,820 -40,439 -43,426
Gross profit 6,359 8,211 10,530 13,871 16,727
Oper. expenses -3,621 -4,269 -3,646 -4,182 -4,632
Oper. profit 2,738 3,942 6,884 9,689 12,095
EBITDA 3,636 4,514 7,483 10,316 12,749
Interest income 90 85 237 272 301
Interest expense -359 -381 -189 -217 -241
Other income (exp.) 575 1,569 852 978 1,083
Pre-tax profit 3,044 5,215 7,783 10,721 13,238
Income tax -1,182 -1,394 -2,257 -3,109 -3,839
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit 1,862 3,821 5,526 7,612 9,399

Exhibit 8 - Balance Sheet

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Cash & cash equivalent 5,089 4,476 6,335 6,996 8,479
Acct, receivables 1,448 1,833 1,841 1,810 2,005
Inventory 3,107 2,906 2,832 3,110 3,340
Other curr, asset 2,084 2,480 2,417 2,737 3,118
Total current asset 11,728 11,695 13,426 14,654 16,942
Fixed assets - net 16,864 16,472 16,493 16,790 17,087
Other non-curr.asset 2,554 2,763 3,004 3,155 3,292
Total asset 32,916 33,637 36,051 38,353 41,825

ST debt + curr. maturity 2,208 2,004 1,518 903 783

Acct, payable 1,399 1,302 1,315 1,433 1,587
Advances received 1,123 666 836 811 786
Other curr. liab 1,831 2,000 2,007 2,113 2,207
Long term debt 3,703 2,082 2,042 1,405 1,065
Other non-curr, liab, 1,813 1,871 1,835 1,723 1,742
Total liabilities 12,079 9,925 9,554 8,388 8,170
Shareholder equity 20,837 23,712 26,497 29,965 33,655
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0
Total liab + SHE 32,916 33,637 36,051 38,353 41,825

Exhibit 9 - Per Share Data

Year to 31 Dec(Rp) 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
EPS 77.5 159.0 230.0 316.8 391.1
BVPS 867.1 986.7 1,102.6 1,246.9 1,400.5
DPS 16.7 38.7 119.3 172.5 237.6
FCF per share 135.1 27.3 205.1 215.0 301.8

Source : ANTM, Ciptadana Estimates

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
ANTM - Result update - 08 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 10 - Cash Flow

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Net income 1,862 3,821 5,526 7,612 9,399
Depreciation 898 572 600 626 654
Chg in working cap. 614 -739 248 -154 -295
Other 531 -1,725 653 -1,207 -658
CF-Oper activities 3,904 1,929 7,027 6,877 9,100

Capital expenditure -788 -299 -613 -912 -940

Others 132 -974 -1,486 -797 -909
CF-Investing activities -657 -1,273 -2,099 -1,709 -1,849

Net change in debt -2,053 -342 -128 -362 -60

Net change in equity 0 0 0 0 0
Dividend payment -402 -931 -2,866 -4,145 -5,709
Other financing 312 4 -76 0 0
CF-Financing activities -2,143 -1,269 -3,070 -4,507 -5,769

Net cash flow 1,105 -613 1,859 661 1,483

Cash - begin of the year 3,984 5,089 4,476 6,335 6,996
Cash - end of the year 5,089 4,476 6,335 6,996 8,479

Exhibit 11 - Key Ratios

Year to 31 Dec 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Growth
Revenue (%) 40.5 19.5 3.1 14.7 10.8
Operating profit (%) 34.7 44.0 74.6 40.8 24.8
Net profit (%) 62.0 105.2 44.6 37.7 23.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross margin (%) 16.5 17.9 22.2 25.5 27.8
Operating margin (%) 7.1 8.6 14.5 17.8 20.1
EBITDA margin (%) 9.5 9.8 15.8 19.0 21.2
Net margin (%) 4.8 8.3 11.7 14.0 15.6
ROA (%) 5.7 11.4 15.3 19.8 22.5
ROE (%) 8.9 16.1 20.9 25.4 27.9
Liquidity Ratios
Current ratio (x) 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2
Quick ratio (x) 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.5
Cash conversion cycle (days) 38.8 30.4 32.1 31.1 30.5
Activity Ratio
Inventory turnover (days) 35.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1
Receivable turnover (days) 13.3 13.0 14.2 12.3 11.6
Payable turnover (days) 9.8 10.7 10.1 9.2 9.2
Solvency Ratio
Interest cover (x) 10.1 11.8 39.5 47.5 53.0
Debt to equity ratio (x) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Net debt to equity (x) 0.0 Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash

Source : ANTM, Ciptadana Estimates

Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 6
 EQUITY RESEARCH
ANTM - Result update - 08 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

EQUITY RESEARCH

HEAD OF RESEARCH ECONOMIST ANALYST

Arief Budiman Renno Prawira Erni Marsella Siahaan, CFA
Strategy, Automotive, Heavy Equipment, Economist Banking, Hospital
Construction, Oil & Gas and Shipping T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 735 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 919
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 819 E prawirarenno@ciptadana.com E siahaanerni@ciptadana.com
E budimanarief@ciptadana.com

ANALYST ANALYST ANALYST

Yasmin Soulisa Gani Thomas Radityo
Property, Plantations Telco, Tower, Media, Technology Coal, Metal Mining
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 799 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 734 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 795
E soulisayasmin@ciptadana.com E gani@ciptadana.com E radityothomas@ciptadana.com

ANALYST ANALYST ANALYST

Putu Chantika Putri Nicko Yosafat Muhammad Gibran
Consumer, Cigarette Retail, Pharmaceutical Cement, Poultry, Toll road
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 740 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 760 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 798
E putriputu@ciptadana.com E yosafatnicko@ciptadana.com E gibranmuhammad@ciptadana.com

TECHNICAL ANALYST RESEARCH ASSISTANT

Asrul Husni Sumarni
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 780 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 920
E husniasrul@ciptadana.com E sumarni@ciptadana.com

EQUITY SALES

DIRECTOR OF INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY SALES

Dadang Mulyana
Plaza ASIA Office Park unit 2
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59
Jakarta - 12190
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 838
F +62 21 2557 4900
E mulyanadadang@ciptadana.com

BRANCH OFFICES

JAKARTA - MANGGA DUA SURABAYA

Komplek Harco Mangga Dua Intiland Tower Surabaya
Rukan Blok C No.10 Ground Floor Suite 5 & 6
Jl. Mangga Dua Raya Jl. Panglima Sudirman 101-103
Jakarta - 10730 Surabaya - 60271
T +62 21 600 2850 T +62 31 534 3938
F +62 21 612 1049 F +62 31 534 3886

Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 7
 EQUITY RESEARCH
ANTM - Result update - 08 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Analyst Certification

Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the
companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not
and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.

Disclaimer

This report does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security/instrument, invitation to offer or recommendation to enter into any
transaction. Nor are we acting in any other capacity as a fiduciary to you. When making and investment decision, you should determine,
without reliance upon us or our affiliates, the economic risks and merits (and independently determine that you are able to assume these
risks) as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such transaction. In this regard, by accepting this
report, you acknowledge that (a) we are not in the business of providing (and you are not relying on us for) legal, tax or accounting advice,
(b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any transaction, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified
legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) you should apprise senior management in your organization as to such legal, tax and accounting
advice (and any risks associated with any transaction and our disclaimer as to these matters.

The information contained in this report is based on material we believe to be reliable; however, we do not represent that it is accurate,
current, complete, or error free. Assumptions, estimates and opinions contained in this report constitute our judgment as of the date of the
document and are subject to change without notice. Any projections are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and
there can be no guarantee that any projected results will be achieved. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. PT
CIPTADANA SECURITIES AND ITS AFFILIATES SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL LIABILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL OR
OTHER LOSSES OR DAMAGES INCLUDING LOSS OF PROFITS INCURRED BY YOU OR ANY THIRD PARTY THAT MAY ARISE FROM ANY
RELIANCE ON THIS REPORT OR FOR THE RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR TIMELINESS THEREOF.

Disclaimer: This document is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell relevant securities (i.e. securities
mentioned herein or of the same issuer and options, warrants or rights to or interest in any such securities). The information and opinions
contained in this document have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or
warranty, expressed or implied, is made by PT CIPTADANA SECURITIES or any other member of the Ciptadana Capital, including any other
member of the Ciptadana Group of Companies from whom this document may be received, as to the accuracy or completeness of the
information contained herein. All opinions and estimates in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and there can be no
assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or estimates. The information in this document
is subject to change without notice; its accuracy is not guaranteed; and it may be incomplete or condensed.

Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 8