EQUITY RESEARCH

GOTO - Company Update - 04 May 2023

CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

BUY GoTo Gojek Tokopedia

Go far, go together
TP: Rp150 (+50.0%)

Sector Technology On-track progress to reach profitability with ample cash balance
After turning into CM positive and cutting adjusted EBITDA loss by half in 1Q23, GOTO is
Bloomberg Ticker GOTO IJ on-track to achieve adjusted EBITDA breakeven by 4Q23F. GOTO’s Rp26.8 tn cash runway
looks ample given the current cash burn of Rp1.9 tn per quarter. As such, GOTO is not
Share Price Performance required to raise any capital whatsoever and perhaps would only do so on opportunistic
Last price (Rp) 100
basis. Route to achieve profitability entails improved monetization and cost efficiency.

Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 356.1/24.2 GTV to continue declining in 2Q23 before sequential recovery in 2H23F
Group GTV should continue to moderate in 2Q23F. The decline in 2Q23F is in part by
3m 6m 12m
design as the Company cuts subsidies and gives incentives only to users deemed to be
Absolute (%) -16.9 -48.5 -59.4 able to turn profitable. Another factor is the high base effect last year that was supported
by tailwinds from Covid Omicron outbreak in 1H22, especially for e-commerce and food
Relative to JCI (%) -16.2 -45.9 -58.8 delivery. Nevertheless, going into 2H23F, the Company expects GTV to sequentially
52w High/Low price (Rp) 416/81 recover as it plans to launch new innovative products that cater to capture the lower end
segment. The idea is to expand to new target market by reducing the cost to serve so that
some of the use cases can capture the segment of affordability. An example that the
Company has been experimenting with is ‘Mode Hemat’ which offers lower cost option to
500 40% consumers that otherwise could not be reached. It works by aggregating nearby orders
400 20% with all orders across the ecosystem so that the cost could be lower, but the consumers
300 0% need to wait longer. It has captured about 10% of transportation and food delivery orders
-20% during the experiment period and the Company has seen good traction in it. The Company
200 -40% will launch this kind of products more aggressively to more cities in 2H23F to support the
100 -60% recovery GTV growth target.
- -80%
Jan-23
Oct-22
Jul-22
Apr-22

Apr-23

Future investments to logistics and consumer lending

In 2023 and going forward, GOTO’s investment focuses on logistic & fulfillment center, and
fintech consumer lending. The former is imperative to improve efficiencies and reduce
GOTO 1yr Rel. to JCI (RHS)
delivery costs. According to the Company, early results have shown that it could reduce
next-day delivery cost by 30%. The ultimate goal is to be able to offer superior services
(faster and more accurate delivery) with structurally lower costs that could serve as long
term competitive advantage for the Company. GOTO has spun Tokopedia’s fulfillment unit
Outstanding shrs (mn) 1,184,364 and Gojek’s e-commerce same-day delivery unit off and inject them into a new GoTo
Logistics (GTL). This also marks ‘Logistics’ as a new separate reporting segment starting
Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/USDmn) 118,436/8,296
from 1Q23 onward. On fintech consumer lending, it is a lucrative business that would
Estimated free float (%) 64.1 provide growth as well as strong profitability. Providing financing as payment options
could also increase consumer loyalty as the Company pointed out that consumers that use
Major shareholders its installment program spend 25% more after its first borrowing. In addition to
Taobao China Holding Limited 8.8% Tokopedia’s products, Gojek currently has three products: 1) PayLater Akhir Bulan, an
end-of-month paylater product, 2) PayLater Cicil, an installment product, and 3) GoPay
SVF GT Subco (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. 7.8% Pinjam, a cash loan product. GOTO sees strong traction with current loan book standing at
GoTo Peopleverse Fund 6.8% around Rp831 bn, growing 40% QoQ. They are well aware of risk from such products and it
is continuously enhancing its credit scoring model by deleveraging its big data capability.
EPS Consensus
Reiterate BUY with a new TP of Rp150/share
Ciptadana Cons. % Diff We update our forecasts by lowering growth but raising profitability assumptions align
with the Company’s current development. Our new valuation model now includes logistic
2023F -10.9 -13.7 -20.7 as a separate unit which we value at 2.0x EV/S. Our new TP is Rp150/share, derived from
2024F -4.3 -8.2 -47.9 SOTP valuation with 2024F as our valuation basis.
2025F -1.1 -3.2 -65.3 Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights
Year to 31 Dec 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Revenue (Rpbn) 4,536 11,349 18,094 21,945 25,291
Operating profit (Rpbn) -22,385 -30,330 -13,725 -5,966 -1,343
Net profit (Rpbn) -21,391 -39,571 -12,892 -5,076 -1,322
EPS (Rp) -18.1 -33.4 -10.9 -4.3 -1.1
EPS growth (%) n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m
Gani EV/EBITDA (x) n/m n/m n/m n/m 632.8
+62 21 2557 4800 ext. 734 PER (x) n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m
gani@ciptadana.com PBV (x) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

http://www.ciptadana.com ROE (%) -15.2 -31.7 -11.5 -4.7 -1.3

Source : GOTO, Ciptadana Estimates

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
GOTO - Company Update - 04 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 3: Group Gross Revenue and Take Rate

Exhibit 2: Group GTV
7 4.1%
6.3
160.9 161.9 5.9 6.0
6 5.5 4.0%
5.2
4.0%
5 3.9% 3.9%
150.5
148.5
4 3.8%

3 3.7% 3.7%
140.0 3.7%
3.7%
2 3.6%

1 3.5%

0 3.4%
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23

GTV (in Rp tn) Gross Revenue (Rp tn, LHS) Gross Take Rate (LHS)

Source: GOTO, Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia Source: GOTO, Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia

Exhibit 4: Group CM, Turning Positive in 1Q23 Exhibit 5: Group Adjusted EBITDA

0.6

1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23

-0.6
-1.6
-1.2

-2 -3.1
-3.7
-2.5
-4.3
-4.9
CM (Rp tn)

Adjusted EBITDA (Rp tn)

Source: GOTO, Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia Source: GOTO, Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia

Exhibit 6: Gopay Pinjam Exhibit 7: Gopaylater

Source: GOTO, Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia Source: GOTO, Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
Company Update - 10 March 2015
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 8: GoFood Mode Hemat

Source: GOTO, Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
GOTO - Company Update - 04 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 9: New Forecasts

Rp tn 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
ODS 61,600 59,444 61,525 63,678
e-commerce 273,100 270,369 283,887 298,082
Fintech 360,400 432,480 508,164 584,389
Logistics - 1 2 3
Others 900 987 1,105 1,225
Eliminations (82,600) (90,585) (101,432) (112,433)
Group GTV 613,400 672,696 753,251 834,944
ODS 13,560 13,226 13,812 14,423
e-commerce 8,649 10,274 11,355 12,519
Fintech 1,663 2,212 2,853 3,574
Logistics - 2,499 2,618 2,741
Others 318 349 391 434
Eliminations (1,264) (1,386) (1,552) (1,720)
Group Gross Revenue 22,927 27,175 29,478 31,971
Gross Take rate 3.7% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8%

Promotion to customers (11,578) (9,081) (7,532) (6,680)

Group Net Revenue 11,349 18,094 21,945 25,291
Net Take rate 1.9% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0%

Cost of revenues (5,480) (6,114) (6,338) (6,554)

Variable expenses (12,169) (7,666) (6,133) (5,519)
CM (6,300) 4,314 9,475 13,218
as percentage of GTV -1.0% 0.6% 1.3% 1.6%

Non-variable expenses (21,117) (16,052) (13,724) (13,049)

Group EBITDA (27,417) (11,738) (4,249) 168
Adjustments 11,417 7,025 5,972 5,374
Group adjusted EBITDA (16,000) (4,713) 1,723 5,543
as percentage of GTV -2.6% -0.7% 0.2% 0.7%

Net profit (loss) (39,571) (12,892) (5,076) (1,322)

Gross take rate 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F

ODS 22.0% 22.3% 22.5% 22.7%
e-commerce 3.2% 3.8% 4.0% 4.2%
Fintech 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
Group 3.7% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8%
Source: GOTO, Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
GOTO - Company Update - 04 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 10: SOTP Valuation

On-demand service: EV/S

2024F gross sales Rp bn 13,812
Target multiple x 3.50
EV Rp bn 48,343

E-commerce: EV/GTV
2024F GTV Rp bn 283,887
Target multiple x 0.20
EV Rp bn 56,777

Fintech: EV/GTV
2024F GTV Rp bn 508,164
Target multiple x 0.075
EV Rp bn 38,112

Logistic: EV/S
2024F gross sales Rp bn 2,618
Target multiple x 2.00
EV Rp bn 5,235

Total core EV Rp bn 148,468

Investment in associates and JVs:

Bank Jago (21.40% stake): our TP at Rp5,100/share Rp bn 15,121
Other associates and JVs: at book value Rp bn 621
Total Value Rp bn 15,742

Other equity investments at FV (BIRD, JD, Gogoro among others)

Level 1 FV measurement: 0% discount Rp bn 2,785
Level 2 FV measurement: 25% discount Rp bn 0
Level 3 FV measurement: 50% discount Rp bn 1,641
Total Value Rp bn 4,426

Net cash (debt) Rp bn 13,126

Less: minority interests Rp bn (4,711)
Total equity value attributable to shareholders Rp bn 177,052
Number of shares bn 1,184
Equity value per share Rp/share 149
TP (rounded) Rp/share 150
Current price Rp/share 100
Upside/downside potential % 50.0%
Source: GOTO, Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
GOTO - Company Update - 04 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 11: ESG Assessment

Company description Technology company

Environmental
1. GOTO is one of the leading Company in Indonesia in term of
ESG adoption. The Company has commitment to achieve zero
emissions, zero waste and zero barriers by 2030.

2. GOTO has multiple initiatives to reduce carbon footprint.

Tokopedia participated in a Gerakan Nasional Sejuta Atap
and has installed rooftop solar panels at Tokopedia Tower.
Going forward, it plans to further scale the use of renewable
enrgy across offices. Gojek partnered with Rekosistem to
sustainably manage the waste generated from some of
GoFood Operations. As a result, 95% of waste generated in
GoFood cloud kitchen has been diverted from landfills. Gojek
also offers sustainable delivery options to its users.
Additionally, GOTO is partnering with TOBA to develop
Electrum, 2W EV manufacturer and to set up battery swap
station across Indonesia.
3. In 2021, GOTO purchased 361 Renewable Energy Certificates
(RECs), equivalent to 361,000 Kwh from PLN. These RECs
will help offset some of GOTO’s carbon footprint and
increase its contribution to renewable energy projects.
These RECs are effective starting January 2022
Social
1. GOTO’s core businesses empower millions of people to have
ESG-related a better livelihood and facilitate thousands of MSMEs with
opportunity or risk support and better access to grow their businesses.
assessment 2. GOTO strive to reduce inequality and improve accessibility
within the organization and across ecosystem. GOTO became
a signatory to the United Nations Women’s Empower
Principles (UN WEP) in 2020, as well as the Valuable 500
alliance for disability inclusion in 2021. This ensures GOTO’s
efforts on building an inclusive and equitable company and
ecosystem are in line with globally recognized standards
and frameworks. Across the ecosystem, the Company also
facilitates access to financial services including credit,
insurance, social protection schemes, and others.

Governance
1. BoD comprises of seven members with a mix of o-founders
and professionals. Two of the members are female. There is
no independent director in the Company. BoD oversees the
day-to-day operations.
2. BoC is in the supervisory role of BoD’s activities. It consists
of six members which are a mixture of shareholder
representatives and professionals. Two members are
independent commissioners. The BoC is assisted by audit,
and nomination and remuneration committee.
3. GOTO has been involved with various related party
transactions previously. However, all of them were disclosed
properly and none is adversely impacting minority
shareholders.

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
GOTO - Company Update - 04 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 12 - Income Statement

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Revenue 4,536 11,349 18,094 21,945 25,291
COGS -3,776 -5,480 -6,114 -6,338 -6,554
Gross profit 760 5,869 11,979 15,608 18,737
Oper. expenses -23,145 -36,199 -25,704 -21,573 -20,080
Oper. profit -22,385 -30,330 -13,725 -5,966 -1,343
EBITDA -19,968 -27,417 -11,738 -4,249 168
Interest income 323 618 684 827 0
Interest expense -264 -233 -259 -290 -334
Other income (exp.) 98 -11,397 17 177 339
Pre-tax profit -22,211 -40,545 -13,283 -5,252 -1,338
Income tax -218 136 45 18 4
Minority interest 1,038 837 346 159 12
Net profit -21,391 -39,571 -12,892 -5,076 -1,322

Exhibit 13 - Balance Sheet

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Cash & cash equivalent 31,151 29,009 18,006 14,958 16,297
Acct, receivables 507 627 645 722 801
Inventory 34 71 47 76 86
Other curr, asset 4,371 4,473 3,921 4,057 4,212
Total current asset 36,064 34,180 22,618 19,812 21,396
Fixed assets - net 1,470 1,457 1,352 1,287 1,244
Other non-curr.asset 106,948 93,665 92,343 91,247 90,351
Total asset 155,137 139,217 123,761 118,520 118,262

ST debt + curr. maturity 1,606 615 690 797 917

Acct, payable 867 1,232 835 716 958
Advances received 179 211 250 271 294
Other curr. liab 9,642 10,104 8,943 8,992 9,453
Long term debt 776 1,826 2,628 3,038 3,495
Other non-curr, liab, 3,043 2,505 931 455 228
Total liabilities 16,113 16,493 14,276 14,269 15,345
Shareholder equity 140,317 124,921 112,029 106,953 105,632
Minority interest -1,292 -2,198 -2,544 -2,702 -2,715
Total liab + SHE 155,137 139,217 123,761 118,520 118,262

Exhibit 14 - Per Share Data

Year to 31 Dec(Rp) 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
EPS -18.1 -33.4 -10.9 -4.3 -1.1
BVPS 118.5 105.5 94.6 90.3 89.2
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FCF per share -104.3 -21.5 -9.7 -2.9 0.7

Source : GOTO, Ciptadana Estimates

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
GOTO - Company Update - 04 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 15 - Cash Flow

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Net income -21,391 -39,571 -12,892 -5,076 -1,322
Depreciation 2,417 2,913 1,986 1,717 1,512
Chg in working cap. 3,493 214 -1,125 -286 485
Other 3,436 -683 -1,672 -533 -270
CF-Oper activities -12,046 -37,128 -13,704 -4,178 405

Capital expenditure -1,332 -715 -752 -791 -833

Others -110,118 12,371 2,922 1,562 1,202
CF-Investing activities -111,451 11,656 2,170 771 370

Net change in debt -288 60 876 517 577

Net change in equity 163,023 17,868 0 0 0
Dividend payment 0 0 0 0 0
Other financing -23,407 5,402 -346 -159 -12
CF-Financing activities 139,328 23,330 530 359 564

Net cash flow 15,832 -2,142 -11,003 -3,048 1,339

Cash - begin of the year 15,319 31,151 29,009 18,006 14,958
Cash - end of the year 31,151 29,009 18,006 14,958 16,297

Exhibit 16 - Key Ratios

Year to 31 Dec 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Growth
Revenue (%) 36.3 150.2 59.4 21.3 15.2
Operating profit (%) n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m
Net profit (%) n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m
Profitability Ratios
Gross margin (%) 16.8 51.7 66.2 71.1 74.1
Operating margin (%) -493.5 -267.2 -75.9 -27.2 -5.3
EBITDA margin (%) -440.2 -241.6 -64.9 -19.4 0.7
Net margin (%) -471.6 -348.7 -71.3 -23.1 -5.2
ROA (%) -13.8 -28.4 -10.4 -4.3 -1.1
ROE (%) -15.2 -31.7 -11.5 -4.7 -1.3
Liquidity Ratios
Current ratio (x) 2.9 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.8
Quick ratio (x) 2.9 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.8
Cash conversion cycle (days) -25.9 -10.8 -5.2 2.8 3.7
Activity Ratio
Inventory turnover (days) 3.3 4.7 2.8 4.4 4.8
Receivable turnover (days) 31.4 18.2 12.8 11.4 11.0
Payable turnover (days) 60.6 33.8 20.8 12.9 12.1
Solvency Ratio
Interest cover (x) -75.7 -117.7 -45.3 -14.6 0.5
Debt to equity ratio (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net debt to equity (x) Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash

Source : GOTO, Ciptadana Estimates

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
GOTO - Company Update - 04 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

EQUITY RESEARCH

HEAD OF RESEARCH ECONOMIST ANALYST

Arief Budiman Renno Prawira Erni Marsella Siahaan, CFA
Strategy, Automotive, Heavy Equipment, Economist Banking, Hospital
Construction, Oil & Gas and Shipping T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 735 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 919
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 819 E prawirarenno@ciptadana.com E siahaanerni@ciptadana.com
E budimanarief@ciptadana.com

ANALYST ANALYST ANALYST

Yasmin Soulisa Gani Thomas Radityo
Property, Plantations Telco, Tower, Media, Technology Coal, Metal Mining
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 799 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 734 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 795
E soulisayasmin@ciptadana.com E gani@ciptadana.com E radityothomas@ciptadana.com

ANALYST ANALYST ANALYST

Putu Chantika Putri Nicko Yosafat Muhammad Gibran
Consumer, Cigarette Retail, Pharmaceutical Cement, Poultry, Toll road
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 740 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 760 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 798
E putriputu@ciptadana.com E yosafatnicko@ciptadana.com E gibranmuhammad@ciptadana.com

TECHNICAL ANALYST RESEARCH ASSISTANT

Asrul Husni Sumarni
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 780 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 920
E husniasrul@ciptadana.com E sumarni@ciptadana.com

EQUITY SALES

DIRECTOR OF INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY SALES

Dadang Mulyana
Plaza ASIA Office Park unit 2
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59
Jakarta - 12190
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 838
F +62 21 2557 4900
E mulyanadadang@ciptadana.com

BRANCH OFFICES

JAKARTA - MANGGA DUA SURABAYA

Komplek Harco Mangga Dua Intiland Tower Surabaya
Rukan Blok C No.10 Ground Floor Suite 5 & 6
Jl. Mangga Dua Raya Jl. Panglima Sudirman 101-103
Jakarta - 10730 Surabaya - 60271
T +62 21 600 2850 T +62 31 534 3938
F +62 21 612 1049 F +62 31 534 3886

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
GOTO - Company Update - 04 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Analyst Certification

Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the
companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not
and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.

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This report does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security/instrument, invitation to offer or recommendation to enter into any
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The information contained in this report is based on material we believe to be reliable; however, we do not represent that it is accurate,
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