GOTO Initiation 01072022 en

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia
Bloomberg: GOTO.IJ | Reuters: GOTO.JK

Technology Sector
1 July 2022 JCI Index: 6,912
HOLD (Initiation) Premium Growth Amidst Low Take Rate

Target Price (IDR) 420 (Initiation) We initiate our coverage on GOTO with HOLD recommendation and a TP of IDR 420,
implying FY23F EV/GTV of 0.45x. With the implementation of hyperlocal and cross-
Potential Upside (%) 8.2
pollination strategies by GOTO, we expect the company to record a GTV of IDR 710
Price Comparison
trillion (+54% yoy) in FY22F. However, we estimate that GOTO's take rate will be
Cons. Target Price (IDR) 359 relatively low for the foreseeable future, mainly due to the difficulty in increasing
SSI vs. Cons. (%) 117.0 Tokopedia's take rate and the fact that the potential of GoTo Financial still hasn't
been fully explored. We project GOTO to record net revenue of IDR 7.6 trillion
Stock Information (+67% yoy) in FY22F, implying a net take rate of 1.1%.
Last Price (IDR) 388 Three main business segments. PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia is a company established in
Shares Issued (Mn) 1,184,364 2021 through the merger of Gojek and Tokopedia. The company focuses on three
Market Cap. (IDR Bn) 452,427 business segments, on-demand (Gojek), e-commerce (Tokopedia), and fintech (GoTo
52-Weeks High/Low (IDR) 442/181
Financial). We project that GOTO’s businesses will grow with a CAGR of >20% over the
next five years, supported by the rapid growth of internet ecosystem and GOTO’s
3M Avg. Daily Value (IDR Bn) n.a
user base.
Free Float (%) 1.2
Shareholder Structure: Substantial GTV growth potential. In FY21, GOTO reported a GTV of IDR 461 trillion
Kreatif Media Karya (%) 23.93 (+40% yoy), with e-commerce as the largest contributor (46.5%). Going forward, we
Publik (%) 25.00 believe GOTO has massive GTV growth potential (FY22f projection: IDR 710 trillion),
supported mainly by the implementation of hyperlocal and cross-pollination
strategies.
Stock Performance
(%) YTD 1M 3M 12M
The difficulty in increasing take rate. Despite its massive growth potential, GOTO has
Absolute n.a 25.7 n.a n.a to deal with the problem of relatively low take rates, especially from Tokopedia and
JCI Return 4.7 (3.6) (2.6) 14.8 GoTo Financial. In our view, it will be difficult for Tokopedia to increase its take rate
Relative n.a 29.2 n.a n.a without causing adverse effects on its users and merchants, which will undoubtedly
affect the growth of its GTV. For GoTo Financial, we believe that its main problem is
Stock Price & Volumes, 12M
the fact that its services are still limited to digital payments (which has not fully
reached every part of the community), and it lacks comprehensive integration with
other financial service providers (such as banks).
HOLD with a TP of IDR 420. We expect GOTO to book net revenue of IDR 7.6 trillion
(+67% yoy) in FY22F, with a net loss of -IDR 23.1 trillion. We initiate our coverage on
GOTO with HOLD recommendation and a SOTP-based TP of IDR 420. Our TP reflects
FY23F EV/GTV of 0.45x.
Forecasts and Valuations (at closing price IDR 450 per share)
Y/E Dec 20A 21A 22F 23F 24F
Company Background
Revenue (IDR Bn) 3,328 4,536 7,586 12,467 19,519
GoTo Group is the largest digital ecosystem in Indonesia.
GoTo's mission is to “drive progress” by offering EBITDA (IDR Bn) (8,920) (21,623) (22,630) (21,636) (14,517)
technology infrastructure and solutions for everyone to EV/GTV (x) 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3
access and thrive in the digital economy. GoTo’s Net Profit (IDR Bn) (14,209) (21,391) (23,106) (22,774) (15,799)
ecosystem offers on-demand transportation services, e- EPS (IDR) (105) (159) (171) (169) (117)
commerce, food delivery, logistics, as well as financial
EPS Growth (%) na na na na na
and payment services through Gojek, Tokopedia, and
GoTo Financial. P/Sales (x) 35.6 26.1 58.7 35.7 22.8
BVPS (IDR) 18 117 110 125 112
P/BV Ratio (x) 5.7 0.9 3.4 3.0 3.4
Muhammad Farras P/GTV (x) 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3
EV/Sales 31.7 19.8 55.6 32.5 21.6
Farhan
+62 21 2854 8346
ROAE(%) (80) (27) (17) (16) (11)
farras.farhan@samuel.co.id ROAA (%) (55) (23) (15) (14) (10)
EV/EBITDA (12) (4) (19) (19) (29)
Net Gearing (x) - - - - -
www.samuel.co.id Page 1 of 22
Technology Sector
Company Overview
GOTO was established through a merger of two startup companies: Gojek (founded in 2010) and Tokopedia (2009). During its initial
years, Gojek was a platform that provided motorcycle taxi services by telephone, while Tokopedia started as a C2C e-commerce
company. In 2015, Gojek launched a mobile app that provides various services, including on-demand, mobility, logistics, and food
delivery services. Then, in 2018, Gojek launched GoPay, an e-wallet platform that simplifies transactions with Gojek's partners, while
also began expanding outside Indonesia (Vietnam and Singapore). In 2021, the two companies merged (Gojek acquired 99.9% of
Tokopedia shares) and formed a new company called PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia.
GOTO is the first listed Indonesian company to implement Multiple Voting Shares (MVS). The holders of GOTO’s MVS shares include
Andre Soelistyo (CEO of GoTo and GoTo Financial, Co-founder of Gojek), Kevin Aluwi (Director of GoTo, CEO and Co-founder of Gojek),
William Tanuwijaya (Commissioner of GoTo, CEO and Co-founder of Tokopedia), Melissa Siska Juminto (Chief of Human Resource
Officer and Chief Operating Officer) and PT Saham Anak Bangsa. According to post-IPO calculations, though these parties only control
6.29% of GOTO shares, they have the majority (59.17%) of voting rights. OJK regulations stated that GOTO’s pre-IPO shareholders IPO
are not allowed to sell their shares for eight months (for non-MVS shareholders) and 24 months (for MVS shareholders).
During its IPO, GOTO managed to raise approximately USD 1 billion (IDR 14.4 trillion), which was then distributed to its businesses,
including e-commerce (Tokopedia), on-demand (Gojek), fintech (GoTo Financials), and to its subsidiaries in Southeast Asia.
Figure 1. GOTO’s Shareholder Structure
Ownership Voting
No Name Series Number of Shares
(%) Rights (%)
MVS Holder A&B 71,995,886,487 6.29% 59.17
1 Andre Soelistyo A 3,247,530,184 0.28% 0.12
B 6,734,025,100 0.59% 7.77
2 Kevin Bryan Aluwi A 5,790,223,535 0.51% 0.22
B 3,272,789,432 0.29% 3.78
3 William Tanuwijaya A 8,393,044,541 0.73% 0.32
B 12,588,634,432 1.10% 14.52
4 Melissa Siska Juminto A 3,993,358,227 0.35% 0.15
B 1,087,292,195 0.10% 1.25
5 PT Saham Anak Bangsa B 26,888,988,841 2.35% 31.02
Non MVS Holder A 1,061,488,321,399 92.81% 40.83
1 Garibaldi Thohir A 1,054,287,487 0.09% 0.04
2 Goto Peopleverse Fund A 106,908,291,844 9.35% 4.11
3 SVF GT Subco (Singapore) Pte. Ltd A 103,120,303,128 9.02% 3.97
4 Taobao China Holding Limited A 104,731,124,993 9.16% 4.03
5 Others (<5%) A 745,674,313,947 65.20% 28.68
Total A&B 1,133,484,207,886 99.10% 100.00
Treasury Share A 10,264,665,616 0.90% -
Shares Issued and PIC 1,143,748,873,502 100% 100.00
Shares in Portfolio 2,856,251,126,498
Source: Company
Technology Sector
Key Investment Opportunities and Risks

There are several opportunities and risks that investors should be aware of prior to investing in GOTO, including:
Key Investment Opportunities
1) Young, up-and-coming industry: All of GOTO's main business segments (on-demand, e-commerce, and fintech) are relatively
young industries in Indonesia. According to RedSeer, in 2021, e-commerce only accounted for 8.7% of Indonesia's total retail
sales. The same is true for on-demand logistics (with a penetration rate of 8.3%), and mobility (5.2%). These figures illustrate
the large growth room for these industries. Furthermore, RedSeer also projects that GOTO may record total addressable
market (TAM) growth of 20-36% in 2021-2025.
2) More complete, superior ecosystem: GOTO has a more complete ecosystem than its two main competitors, SEA Ltd and Grab;
SEA Ltd lacks on-demand services, while Grab does not have e-commerce. In addition, according to RedSeer, GOTO reported
better GTV than the other two companies in 1H21.
Key Investment Risks
1) The difficulty in increasing take rate: In FY21, Tokopedia reported a gross take rate of 1.9% and net take rate of 0.9%, lower
than its competitors in both the domestic (BUKA: 1.7%) and regional markets (SEA Ltd: 6.9%). The fact that Tokopedia is still
trying to increase its market share (which means focusing on improving GTV and average transacting users (ATU) was the
main factor causing such low figures. Though Tokopedia contributed 46.5% of GOTO’s GTV in FY21, its take rate was low, and
it will be quite challenging to increase Tokopedia’s take rate without causing adverse impacts on its users. Given that there
have been no further product innovations or initiatives to expand its business outside Indonesia, coupled with the large
promotional expenses, we estimate that Tokopedia will continue to record relatively low net take rates for some time to
come (FY23F projection: 1.1%), despite significant GTV growth (FY23F: +43% yoy).
2) Long way to profitability: GOTO's business model relies heavily on commission fees from its services. At the moment, only its
on-demand business has a relatively equal take rate with its competitors; however, it also indicates that there’s less growth
room for GOTO’s on-demand business than before. Meanwhile, GOTO is still trying to increase the market share of its e-
commerce and fintech businesses which, although positive, may negatively impact the company's finances. To support its
expansion efforts, we estimate that GOTO will still have to spend big on promotional & marketing over the next few years, not
to mention the costs of expanding GOTO's internal team. This situation is exacerbated by the low take rates of GOTO’s e-
commerce (FY21: 0.9%) and fintech businesses (FY21: 0.5%). We also have not seen any indication of further innovation or
efforts to increase the take rate significantly in the coming years. Taking these factors into account, we project that GOTO will
only start to record positive EBITDA (IDR 3 trillion) in 2027 and net profit (IDR 1.8 trillion) in 2028.
Technology Sector
Growing Internet Ecosystem

According to a report released by Google, Temasek, and Bain, from early 2020 to mid-2021, internet users in Indonesia increased by 21
million within 1.5 years (early 2020 to mid-2021). About 72% of those new users come from rural areas, which shows the growing
reach of internet services in Indonesia. By 2021, approximately 201 million people in Indonesia have used the internet, and the figure
is projected to reach 233 million by 2025. The rapid growth in the number of users is accompanied by the fact that more and more
Indonesian people plan to continue using the internet in the future, since they believe that the digital ecosystem currently available in
Indonesia is sufficient to help them meet daily needs. In addition, COVID-19 pandemic ‘forced’ Indonesians to stay at home and use
various digital services to access daily necessities, which became a blessing in disguise for digital players, who experienced a massive
surge in user traffic.
Figure 2. Indonesia’s Internet Users and Penetration Rate Figure 3. GMV of Indonesia’s Digital Economy (USDbn)
250 233 160

226 146
219
211
201 140
200 191
179
171 120
143 100
150
80 70
100
60
40 44
50 40
20
0
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 0
2019 2020 2021 2025
Number of Users (mn) Penetration Rate (%)
Source: Statista, SSI Research Source: Google, Temasek, Bain, SSI Research
The growth of internet users has boosted digital economic transaction value in Indonesia. According to Google, Temasek and Bain, the
GMV of Indonesia's internet economy has reached USD 70 billion (+49% yoy) and is projected to reach USD 146 billion by 2025 (CAGR:
+20%). Sectoral GMV also experienced substantial growth; e-commerce GMV rose +52% yoy to USD 53 billion, as did transportation
and food delivery services GMV (+36% yoy to USD 6.9 billion), online travel agency GMV (+29% yoy to USD 3.4 billion), and online
media GMV (+48% yoy to USD 6.4 billion). We believe the positive trend will continue in the long term, given Indonesia's high internet
usage retention rate.
Figure 4. GMV of Indonesia’s Digital Economy (Sectoral; USDbn)

120
104
100
80
60 53
40 35
21
16.8 15.8
20 10.1 9.7
5.7 3.5 5.1 4.3 6.9 3.4 6.4
2.6
0
2019 2020 2021 2025
E-commerce Transport and Food Delivery Online Travel Agent Online Media
Source: Google, Temasek, Bain, SSI Research
Technology Sector
E-Commerce: The Trump Card of Digital Economy

Despite its young age, e-commerce sector has become the main driver of Indonesia's digital economy. According to Google, Temasek,
and Bain, e-commerce contributed USD 53 billion of Indonesia's internet economy GMV in 2021 (USD 69.7 billion). Furthermore,
according to Statista, Indonesia's e-commerce sector has a market value of USD 32 billion, and the figure is expected to reach USD 83
billion by 2025. In terms of user base, Indonesia’s e-commerce sector has 159 million users (penetration rate: 57%). We believe that
the Indonesian e-commerce industry will grow even further as more and more Indonesians use internet.
Figure 5. E-commerce Users In Indonesia (millions) Figure 6. Indonesian E-commerce Revenue Breakdown (USDmn)
250
221
209 60,000
197
200 179 50,000
159
40,000
150 138
30,000
100
20,000
10,000
50
0
2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
0
Electronics and Media Fashion
2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F Food and Personal Care Furniture and appliances
Toys, Hobby & DIY
Users (in millions) Penetration Rate (%)
Source: Statista, SSI Research Source: Google, Temasek, Bain, SSI Research
One of the main drivers of e-commerce growth in Indonesia is the increase of the middle-class population. BCG revealed that 115
million of Indonesia’s population (total: 273 million) could be considered middle class. Meanwhile, according to Hootsuite and
Wearesocial, in 2021 Indonesians spent 23% more time in cyberspace than the previous year. Furthermore, the majority of middle-
class e-commerce comes from tier 1 regions (Jabodetabek etc.), which are the main targets of e-commerce companies. Another
driving factor for e-commerce growth is the development of digital payment; according to Asianbanker, in 2021, digital payment
transactions in Indonesia reached USD 18.5 billion, with 15% of them coming from e-commerce.
Figure 7. Indonesia GDP Forecast Figure 8. E-money Transaction Value in Indonesia
14,000 20 18.47 1.2

18
12,000 11,634 1
10,949 11,122 16
10,722 13.95
10,426
9,913 14
10,000 9,435 0.8
12
10.07
8,000 10 0.6
6,204 8
5,651
5,936 5,780 5,932 6.18
6,000 5,380 0.4
5,126 6
4 2.92
4,000 2.08 0.2
2
2,000 0 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
- Value of E-money Transaction (USDbn) Growth

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
GDP (IDRtn) Household Consumption (IDRtn)
Source: Bank Indonesia, Asian Banker

Source: BPS, SSI Research
Technology Sector
Mobility and Food Delivery: Key Drivers of On-Demand

The Indonesian mobility industry is currently dominated by two players (Gojek and Grab), which offer similar services: Ride-Hailing,
Food Delivery, and Logistics. Meanwhile, several other startups have also started their own food delivery (ShopeeFood & Traveloka
Eats) and logistics services (Anteraja, Deliveree, Lalamove, etc.). According to a report from Google, Bain, and Temasek, in 2021,
transportation and food delivery services accounted for USD 6.9 billion of Indonesia's digital economy GMV, +36% higher than the
previous year. Google, Bain, and Temasek project that the industry will continue to grow in the future with an estimated GMV of USD
16.8 billion, implying 5-year CAGR of +25%.
Figure 9. GMV of Food Delivery and Logistics in Indonesia
Source: Google, Bain, Temasek
Food delivery contributed USD 4.6 billion to Indonesia’s GMV in 2021, beating the previous year’s figure (2020: USD 3.7 billion, +24%
yoy). The speedy growth of food delivery GMV was partly driven by COVID-19 restrictions imposed in Indonesia in 2Q21 and 3Q21.
Statista estimates that the total revenue of the Indonesian food delivery industry in 2021 reached USD 803 million, which translates to
a 17% take rate. By 2025, the figure is expected to reach USD 1.5 billion, about 13.7% of the projected GMV (USD 11.2 billion).
Figure 10. Food Delivery Revenue (Indonesia)
Source: Statista
Technology Sector
The Indonesian food delivery industry has seen significant growth in users (2021: 20.6 million), with average revenue per user (ARPU) of
USD 84.57 (IDR 1.2 million) per year. However, there is still actually ample room for growth, considering that the penetration rate of
food delivery services in Indonesia only reached 7.4% in 2021. This condition prompted several companies to their own food delivery
services such as Traveloka. (Traveloka Eats) and Shopee (Shopeefood); even restaurants such as Pizza Hut (PHD) and Mcdonald’s
(McDelivery) have developed their own delivery app. Going forward, we see the penetration rate of food delivery services in Indonesia
may reach 13.6% by 2025, with 39.2 million users and an ARPU of
USD 83.33.
Figure 12. ARPU of Food Delivery in Indonesia
Figure 11. Food Delivery User Penetration Rate (Indonesia)
Source: Statista, SSI Research
Another factor boosting the development of food delivery industry in Indonesia is the increase in internet and smartphone penetration
due to COVID-19 pandemic. The results of a survey conducted by Statista show that 78.8% of food delivery service users in Indonesia
come from middle class and above, and 51.9% of food delivery service users are between 18-34 years old. So far, Gojek and Grab still
dominate the food delivery market, with Gojek having a 25% market share and Grab 20%. The rest is held by Yum! Brands (KFC, Pizza
Hut, Taco Bell) (15%) and Zomato (10%). We believe that the industry still has massive future growth prospects, in line with the increase
in internet and smartphone penetration and public consumption
Figure 13. Food Delivery Market Share (Indonesia)
Technology Sector
Fintech: The Future of Transactions

Fintech industry is currently being developed by a number of parties in Indonesia, one of which is the government as an effort to
reduce the gap between banked and unbanked populations. In 2020-2021, Indonesia received 26% or around USD 940 million of total
fintech funding to Southeast Asia (USD 3.5 billion). The Indonesian fintech industry is currently dominated by digital payments (FY22F
transaction value: USD 71.4 billion. average transaction per user: USD 4,556). However, another sector that should be considered is
neobanking, which is projected to record revenue growth of up to +40% yoy in 2023, thanks to the expansion of the neobanking
ecosystem. However, we believe that digital payments will dominate the fintech industry for some time to come (estimated number of
users in 2026: 233.94 million).
Figure 14. Indonesia Fintech Transaction Value (USDmn)
One of the main goals of fintech development in Indonesia is to help banks overcome topographical limitations. In addition, many
Indonesians are reluctant to access banking services due to their complexity, especially financing. Fintech provides alternative financing
solutions for those who find it difficult or reluctant to access banking services.
There are several factors that we believe will help drive the development of the fintech industry. First, many consumers now prioritize
ease of access. Second, fintech services are considered inexpensive, with easier terms than conventional banks. Lastly, fintech is
essential to support the government's efforts to increase financial inclusion in Indonesia.
Technology Sector
Business Overview & Outlook

GOTO runs three businesses at the moment; on-demand (Gojek), e-commerce (Tokopedia), and fintech (GoTo Financials).
1.) On-Demand
GOTO's on-demand business, which is run by Gojek, started as a call center for motorcycle taxi and food delivery services. The business
now offers three types of services; Mobility, Food Delivery, and Logistics. These three services are offered in the Gojek super-app,
which has been downloaded 190 million times from the App Store and Play Store and currently has 29.2 million monthly active users
(MAU) (Statista). GOTO offers various types of mobility services, including 2W (GoRide) and 4W (GoCar) ride-sharing. Gojek set a
minimum service charge of IDR 9,000 and IDR 2,500 for every additional km for GoRide, while for GoCar, the minimum service charge is
IDR 10,000 and IDR 3,500 for every extra km.
Figure 15. GOTO’s On-Demand Products
Main Product/Services Products/ Services Description

Mobility
GoRide 2W Ride Sharing
GoCar 4W Ride Sharing
GoTaxi (Bluebird) Taxi service collaborating with Blue Bird)
GoCorp Corporate-centric platform to enable corporations monitor business trips
GoTransit Planner solution for multimodal transportation
Food Delivery
GoFood Food Delivery Service with two subservice include self-pickup and subcription based
GoMart e-groceries platform
Cloud Kitchen Shared kitchen for delivery-only meals
Logistic
GoSend C2C business offering instant and same day delivery services with usage of various vehicle modes
GoKilat B2B2C business catered for online goods deliveries from merchants to consumers
GoShop Personal concierge service enabling users to shop for various items from various stores
GoBox Truck Logistics services
Source: Company, SSI Research
Gojek is often compared to Grab since they offer relatively similar services. Nevertheless, RedSeer stated that Gojek has a larger market
share than Grab (GoRide 63%, GoCar 64%, GoFood 41%), which strengthens Gojek's position as the market leader.
In terms of performance, Gojek is currently GOTO’s most profitable GOTO business, with a gross take rate of 20.4% and net take rate of
4.1% in FY21. The main factor enabling Gojek to record relatively high take rates is its monetization strategy. Gojek takes a 20% cut
from every GoRide and GoCar trip while also charging IDR 1,000 per trip from GoRide (2W) and IDR 4,000 per trip from Gocar (4W) and
GoBluebird. In addition, Gojek also takes a commission of around 20% per transaction made by GoFood merchants. This strategy allows
Gojek to contribute 37.6% of GOTO's total net revenue.
However, if we dig deeper into GOTO's FY21 GTV data, the contribution of on-demand was surprisingly low (10.8%). Such a small figure
might be caused by Gojek's low average order value (AOV), which, based on Statista data, is only around IDR 224 thousand per order, in
contrast to e-commerce (Tokopedia) (IDR 605,500). Furthermore, increasing Gojek's take rate further will negatively impact both
merchants and driver-partners, because they will get a smaller commission which will eventually trigger price hikes and increase the
risk of ‘exodus’ to other platforms, as explained in Wang’s (2014) research entitled Understanding online consumer stickiness in e-
commerce environment: a relationship formation model.
Technology Sector
We think that we will not see significant growth in the take rate of Gojek in the near future; Also, its GTV growth might be smaller than
GOTO’s other businesses. We project Gojek to record a GTV of IDR 77 trillion (+23% yoy) in FY23F, with a gross take rate of 21.5% (+238
bps yoy) and net take rate of 4.0% (+255 bps yoy), implying FY23F gross revenue of IDR 16.5 trillion (+26% yoy) and net revenue of IDR
3.09 trillion (+26% yoy).
Figure 16. On-Demand GTV Growth Figure 17. On-Demand Gross and Net Take Rate
Source: Company, SSI Research Source: Company, SSI Research
When compared with Grab, both have relatively similar net take rate (Gojek 4.1%; Grab 4.2%). However, it should be noted that
Gojek’s current operating area (5 countries) is smaller than Grab's (8 countries), meaning that Gojek still has a fairly large room for
expansion. However, it will take large capital to expand to new countries, not to mention the demographic problem. Therefore, we
believe that it will be quite challenging for Gojek to increase its take rate in the near future without adversely impacting its business
ecosystem.
Figure 18. Grab vs Gojek Market Share (FY21) Figure 19. Grab Operational Highlights
Grab Ltd. Sea Ltd
In Million of USD FY20 FY21 In Millio
GMV 12,492 16,061 GMV
Revenue 469 675 Revenu
Take Rate 3.8% 4.2% Take Ra
EBITDA (780) (842) EBITDA
Net Profit/Loss (2,745) (3,555) Net Pro
Cash 617 2,869 Cash
Asset 17,178 14,337 Asset
Liabilities 11,736 3,159 Liabiliti
Equity 5,442 11,178 Equity
Source: Measurable AI Source: Company, SSI Research
Technology Sector
2.) E-commerce
GOTO’s second business segment is e-commerce, currently run by Tokopedia. Tokopedia itself is an e-commerce company founded by
William Tanuwijaya and Leontinus Alpha Edison on February 6, 2009, and its application was first introduced in August 2009. In 2014,
Tokopedia managed to secure USD 100 million in funding from various well-known investors, including Sequioa and Softbank.
Figure 20. Tokopedia Products
Source: Company
Tokopedia offers a wide variety of products to both its consumers and merchants. Aside from being a platform connecting merchants
with consumers, Tokopedia also provides opportunities for large corporations and brands to market their products on Tokopedia’s
platform with ‘Official Store’ label. Tokopedia also competes with Bukalapak in the O2O sector with Mitra Tokopedia, although the
program is currently lagging behind Mitra Bukalapak, particularly in rural areas. Tokopedia is also one of the e-commerce platforms
that often promotes its platform through collaboration with several well-known KOLs; a famous South Korean boyband, BTS is one of
them. These initiatives help drive the growth of Tokopedia users; Tokopedia currently has around 100 million active users, with more
than 600 million SKUs and 12 million merchants on its platform. On the other hand, Tokopedia’s aggressive promotion severely eroded
its net take rate (FY21: 0.9%).
Figure 21. Tokopedia’s Promotion Banner Figure 22. Tokopedia’s Promotion
Source: Company Source: Company, SSI Research
Technology Sector
According to Similarweb, Tokopedia’s website is one of the most visited websites in Indonesia, with 472.3 million visitors. Tokopedia
adopts 3P e-commerce business model; meaning that Tokopedia only acts as an intermediary who will take fees from transactions
made by buyers and sellers on its platform. The model is different from Lazada or Blibli, which adopt 1P (they have their own
warehouse and sell goods directly from their warehouse). By implementing the 3P model, Tokopedia does not need to have its own
warehouse while eliminating the risk of aging inventory. However, the model carries a huge risk of low take rates, as reflected by
Tokopedia’s take rate (0.9%), which is lower than Bukalapak (1.7%).
Figure 23. E-commerce Monthly Visits
Source: Similarweb, SSI Research
Like any other 3P business, Tokopedia monetizes every transaction on its platform. Therefore, the take rate metric is very crucial in
judging Tokopedia’s performance because it measures the monetization level of the marketplace. Tokopedia takes commissions from
merchants, which are divided into four categories; Regular Merchant, Power Merchant, Power Merchant Pro, and Official Store. Each of
these categories has its own advantages and disadvantages; the more features a merchant receives, the higher the fees charged by
Tokopedia. More details on the fees and features available for each category are available in the following table:
Figure 24. Tokopedia Merchant Category
Regular Merchant Power Merchant Power Merchant Pro Official Store

2%-15%/Product Sold,
0.5%/Product Sold after
Commission Fees 1.25%/Product Sold 1.5%/Product Sold depending on product
100 transactions
type
2.25%/product, 1.5%/product, exclusive
3%/product, exclusive for Free with optional
Free Delivery Cost exclusive for free for free shipping product
free shipping product sold courier for store
shipping product sold sold
Merchant Statistics limited features Sales data and graphics feature, market movement monitoring
Pasti Ready, Pasti Ori, 7-
Product Insurance - - -
day guarantee
Merchant Discount - - PM PRO Expert only Available
Merchant Capital - Revolving credit limit loan facility
Source: Company
Tokopedia recorded a massive jump in GTV in FY21 (+46% yoy to IDR 230 trillion), thanks in part to the recovery of people's purchasing
power as the COVID-19 pandemic subsided. This year, we believe Tokopedia will be able to record a GTV of IDR 334 trillion (+24% yoy),
and in 2024, the figure will reach IDR 669 trillion, around 46% of GOTO's total GTV. Some of the factors that we identify as supporters
of Tokopedia’s future GTV growth are the hyperlocal and cross-pollination strategies adopted by GOTO, and the trend of quick
commerce (Tokopedia Now).
Technology Sector
Figure 25. Tokopedia GTV Growth
However, despite its massive growth potential, we think it will be difficult for Tokopedia to increase its take rate significantly. As
mentioned earlier, Tokopedia adopts 3P business model; in the model, an increase in take rate will cause huge impacts on merchants
and consumers. If Tokopedia increases its take rate significantly, merchants and consumers may switch to other e-commerce sites
offering lower commission fees. Therefore, we project that Tokopedia’s gross take rate will only increase by +5bps per year.
Figure 26. Tokopedia Take Rate Trajectory
Technology Sector
3.) Fintech
GOTO’s third business segment is financial technology (fintech), currently operated by GoTo Financial. GoTo Financial itself has several
businesses that are divided into four categories; consumer payment, merchant payment, merchant solutions, and lending platform.
Consumer payment is run under the GoPay brand, which has a 25% market share in Indonesia, the second largest after OVO (31%).
GoPay is also part of the cross-pollination strategy implemented by GOTO. GoPay recently launched a loyalty program called GoPay
Coin which can be obtained and used in Tokopedia and Gojek apps. For merchant payment, GoTo Financial uses the Midtrans and IRIS
brands, which offer payment integration solutions for merchants. For merchant solutions, GoTo Financial uses GoBiz and Moka brands,
which offer POS (Point of Sale) services that make it easier for merchants to access digital payments from consumers. Finally, for
lending platform, GoTo Financial offers GoPaylater and GoModal services, which provide access to capital loans (GoModal) and a buy
now pay later (GoPaylater) scheme in exchange for subscription fees and interest income.
Figure 27. GoTo Financial Products
Source: Company
GoTo Financial mostly relies on transaction fees as its main source of revenue. However, it’s different for GoBiz and Moka POS; both
charges a subscription fee of IDR 299,000 per month. Meanwhile, GoPaylater imposes a take rate of 2.5% - 7% for its services
(GoPaylater and GoPaylater Cicil), while for GoModal, GoTo Financial imposes an interest rate of 3% per month.
Figure 28. GoTo Financial Monetization Scheme
Main Product/Services Main Operator Monetization Model Take Rate

Consumer Payments GoPay Transaction fees 1.0% - 5.0%
Merchant Payments Midtrans & IRIS Transaction fees 0.8% & IDR 1,000/trx
Merchant Solutions GoBiz & Moka Subscription fees IDR 299,000/month
Subscription fees & Subscription Fee: 2.5% - 7.5% per month,
Lending GoPaylater & GoModal
Interest Income Interest Income: 3% per month
Technology Sector
GOTO’s fintech business booked a GTV of IDR 214 trillion (+80% yoy) in FY21. The yoy growth was much better than FY20 (+1% yoy),
though it has to be considered that aside from being dragged down by the COVID-19 pandemic, GoTo Financial had not been integrated
with Tokopedia by FY20, meaning it had to rely solely on Gojek. When Gojek experienced a decline in GTV, GoTo Financial also suffered.
We believe that there are still lots ot things that has not been done by GoTo Financial that might help boost its GTV, one of which is
integration with Bank Jago (ARTO IJ). We project that GoTo Financial will experience GTV growth of +65% yoy in FY22F to IDR 354
trillion, and there might be no significant growth going forward until GoTo Financial innovates or makes substantial efforts to increase
its take rate further.
Figure 29. GoTo Financial GTV Growth
GoTo Financial has the lowest gross and net take rates among GOTO’s businesses; quite reasonable, considering that the majority of
GoTOo Financial’s GTV comes from GoPay and merchant solutions (GoBiz & Moka POS). Going forward, we believe that GoTo
Financial's take rate growth will rely mainly on GoPay, merchant solutions, and Go/Paylater. We project that GoTo Financial will post a
gross and net take rate of 0.7% and 0.6% in FY22F, respectively. Regarding promotional expenses, we think that GoTo Financial won’t
spend much on promotional expenses, since the focus of GoTo Financial's development is to provide comprehensive services for its
users.
Figure 30. GoTo Financial Gross and Net Take Rate
Technology Sector
Financial Outlook
We project GOTO to book a GTV of IDR 710 trillion (+54% yoy) in FY22F, with e-commerce (Tokopedia) and fintech (GoTo Financial) as
the largest contributors. We believe that GOTO’s GTV will grow even further in the future (projected 10-year CAGR of 32%), largely
thanks to its dominance in the market. However, despite its substantial GTV growth, its take rate growth might be slow, given the
various monetization challenges that GOTO has to face, especially for e-commerce and fintech. We expect GOTO to record a gross take
rate of 3.0% and a net take rate of 1.1% in FY22F; the huge difference between the gross take rate and the net take rate is mainly
caused by the massive surge in promotional expenses, particularly from e-commerce.
Figure 31. GOTO GTV and Take Rate Trajectory
Using the aforementioned take rate as a basis, we project GOTO to generate IDR 21.2 trillion (+40% yoy) in gross revenue and IDR 7.6
trillion (+67% yoy) in net revenue in FY22F. We think GOTO will be able to keep its status as a ‘giant’ in the Indonesian tech sector while
recording premium revenue growth (income growth above 20% per year) for the next ten years with a CAGR of 35%.
Figure 32. GOTO Gross and Net Revenue Growth
Technology Sector
Despite its massive growth potential, we think GOTO still has a long way to go to achieve profitability. We project that GOTO will only
be able to record positive EBITDA in 2027 (IDR 3 trillion) and net profit in 2028 (IDR 1.8 trillion) since GOTO might still have to spend big
on promotion, sales, marketing, etc. to increase its market share. However, this may change if GOTO starts initiatives that require
relatively low expenses, like a comprehensive integration with Bank Jago. In FY22F, we project that GOTO will record a net loss of -IDR
23 trillion with an EBITDA loss of -IDR 22.6 trillion.
Figure 33. GOTO EBITDA and Net Profit (Loss) Trajectory
We project GOTO to record a negative free cash flow of -IDR 19.6 trillion in FY22F, and it might continue to record negative free cash
flow until 2028.
Figure 34. GOTO Cash Position and Free Cash Flow Projection
Technology Sector
Valuation
To determine our valuation for GOTO, we used EV/GTV metric since we believe that although GOTO’s monetization rate is lower than
its peers, it recorded substantial GTV growth. Thus, we consider the EV/GTV metric a relevant metric for measuring GOTO’s valuation.
We used the SOTP method, meaning that we compared each of GOTO’s businesses with their global and regional peers. We also
provided the following multiple targets for each business:
1.) E-commerce (Tokopedia): 0.4x EV/GTV, in-line with global and regional peers
2.) On-Demand (Gojek): 0.6x EV/GTV, in-line with global and regional peers
3.) Fintech (GoTo Financial): 0.4x EV/GTV, 10% lower than global and regional peers
The reasoning behind our decision to provide a low multiple target for fintech is the fact that the business is still in the development
stage, with lots of untapped potential. In addition, we also calculated that GOTO has a 21.4% stake in ARTO, which is in line with our
projection for ARTO’s enterprise value of IDR 140 trillion. (Click Here to Download Our Full Report on ARTO TP: IDR 10,100).
Our calculation to determine GOTO’s valuation is presented in the following table.
Figure 35. GOTO Valuation Method
Multiple 2023 GTV Valuations Value to GOTO

Business Method Stake Notes
(x) (IDRbn) (IDRbn) (IDRbn)
E-commerce EV/GTV 0.4 478,147 171,824 100.00% 171,824 In-line with peers average
On-Demand EV/GTV 0.6 77,004 42,353 100.00% 42,353 In-line with peers average
Fintech EV/GTV 0.4 514,165 214,435 100.00% 214,435 10% Discount from peers average
ARTO Enterprise Value 140,296 21.40% 30,023 In-line with our ARTO TP at IDR 10,100
Enterprise Value 458,635
(-) Debt -
(+) Cash 40,391
(-) Minority Interest (5,434)
Equity Value 493,593
Shares Outstanding 1,184
Value per Share 420
Source: SSI Research
By using the aforementioned multiple targets and aligning them with the GTV of each segment, as well as GOTO's ownership in ARTO,
we obtained an enterprise value of IDR 458.6 trillion, reflecting a target price of IDR 420/share (0.45x EV/GTV and 36.7x EV/Sales).
Technology Sector
Figure 36. GOTO Peers Comparison
Market P/GMV EV/GMV EV/Sales P/S Sales Growth

Company EV(USD mn)
Cap (mn)
2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
On-demand 103,690 101,051 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 3.5 2.7 3.7 2.8 31% 30%
Mobility
Uber 42,356 50,237 0.6 0.5 0.71 0.59 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.2 72% 21%
Lyft 5,275 4,091 0.4 0.3 0.28 0.24 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.0 33% 25%
Grab 9,330 4,251 0.8 0.6 0.36 0.27 3.5 1.7 7.7 3.8 80% 104%
Delivery
Meituan 149,594 143,044 0.7 0.6 0.67 0.57 4.5 3.4 4.7 3.6 16% 32%
Deliveroo 1,954 270 0.2 0.2 0.03 0.02 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 8% 22%
Delivery Hero 9,196 11,573 0.2 0.2 0.27 0.24 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.7 40% 37%
DoorDash 23,205 19,388 0.8 0.7 0.67 0.58 3.1 2.5 3.8 3.0 26% 24%
E-commerce 191,840 148,528 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.9 1.6 2.2 1.9 13% 17%
MercadoLibre 31,584 33,239 1.6 1.3 1.68 1.37 3.2 2.4 3.0 2.3 48% 30%
Sea 39,529 35,888 0.9 0.6 0.82 0.54 2.7 2.0 2.9 2.2 35% 32%
eBay 24,034 26,335 0.5 0.4 0.55 0.44 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 -7% 4%
Alibaba 267,079 203,414 0.2 0.2 0.15 0.15 1.5 1.3 1.9 1.7 5% 13%
Bukalapak 1,873 487 0.2 0.2 0.05 0.05 2.6 1.7 9.3 6.3 55% 49%
Fintech 53,020 57,183 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 5.7 4.6 5.8 4.6 4% 20%
Wallets
Pay pal 85,371 86,434 0.1 0.1 0.10 0.10 3.1 2.6 3.0 2.6 11% 16%
Payment Gateway
Block 36,432 36,709 0.2 0.2 0.20 0.20 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.8 -2% 19%
Fiserv 59,126 80,203 0.8 0.7 1.10 0.96 4.8 4.5 3.6 3.3 2% 8%
Square 36,520 36,796 0.6 0.6 0.65 0.57 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.8 1% 15%
Nu Holding 16,414 12,285 0.8 0.7 0.56 0.49 3.3 2.2 4.4 2.9 119% 53%
Adyen 39,443 34,348 0.1 0.1 0.09 0.09 23.9 17.9 27.1 20.3 -79% 34%
StoneCo 2,529 2,741 0.1 0.1 0.11 0.11 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.2 97% 19%
BNPL
Humm 319 2,764 0.0 0.0 0.29 0.25 5.9 4.8 0.7 0.6 6% 21%
Zip 363 2,887 0.1 0.0 0.44 0.38 4.6 3.3 0.6 0.4 58% 41%
Sezzle 48 9 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.1 0.3 46% -100%
Affirm 5,133 5,546 0.8 0.5 0.86 0.54 4.1 2.9 3.8 2.7 54% 44%
Enbler / SaaS
Shopify 39,531 33,479 0.5 0.4 0.42 0.34 5.8 4.4 6.8 5.2 26% 30%
Source: Bloomberg (Valuation at Last Price)
Technology Sector
Management
GOTO has a strong management team, led by Andre Soelistyo as CEO and Co-Founder, Kevin Bryan Aluwi as Director and Co-Founder,
and Wei-Jye Jacky Lo as CFO. GOTO still retains some of its founders as stakeholders; Andre and Kevin were the founders of Gojek,
while William Tanuwidjaya (Commissioner) was the founder of Tokopedia. In our opinion, having founders in management is good,
since it might help align GOTO’s vision with Gojek and Tokopedia’s..
Figure 37. GOTO Board of Directors
Source: Company
Technology Sector
Key Financial Figures

Profit and Loss Cash Flow
Y/E Dec (IDR Bn) 20A 21A 22F 23F 24F Y/E Dec (IDR Bn) 20A 21A 22F 23F 24F
Revenues 3,328 4,536 7,586 12,467 19,519 Net Profit (14,209) (21,391) (23,106) (22,774) (15,799)
Cost of Revenues (2,439) (3,776) (5,098) (6,244) (7,134) D&A 1,451 2,235 2,673 3,097 3,590
Gross Profit/Loss 889 760 2,488 6,224 12,386 Changes in Working Capital (57) 4,915 3,878 104 (1,300)
SGA Expense (11,056) (23,145) (27,791) (30,957) (30,493) Operating Cash Flow (7,361) (14,691) (16,555) (19,573) (13,509)
Operating Profit/Loss (10,167) (22,385) (25,302) (24,734) (18,107) Capital Expenditure (1,446) (12,814) (3,065) (3,548) (4,110)
EBITDA (8,920) (21,623) (22,630) (21,636) (14,517) Others (3,860) (78,437) - - -
Finance Income 212 323 1,081 810 1,402 Investing Cash Flow (5,305) (91,251) (3,065) (3,548) (4,110)
Finance Expenses (186) (264) - - - Net - Borrowing 1,530 (131) (2,382) - -
Pre-tax Profit/Loss (16,789) (22,211) (24,145) (23,799) (16,510) Other Financing 22,257 121,662 14,180 40,183 561
Income Tax 53 (218) 77 76 53 Financing Cash Flow 23,787 121,531 11,798 40,183 561
Profit/Loss for Period (16,735) (22,429) (24,068) (23,723) (16,457) Net - Cash Flow 11,121 15,588 (7,822) 17,062 (17,057)
Minority Interest (2,527) (1,038) (963) (949) (658) Cash at beginning 6,104 15,319 31,151 23,329 40,391
Net Profit (14,209) (21,391) (23,106) (22,774) (15,799) Cash at ending 15,319 31,151 23,329 40,391 23,334
Balance Sheet Key Ratios

Y/E Dec (IDR Bn) 20A 21A 22F 23F 24F Y/E Dec (IDR Bn) 20A 21A 22F 23F 24F
Cash & equivalents 15,319 31,151 23,329 40,391 23,334 Gross Profit Margin (%) 26.7 16.8 32.8 49.9 63.5
Receivables 833 2,937 3,214 5,283 8,271 Operating Margin (%) (305.5) (493.5) (333.5) (198.4) (92.8)
Others 3,373 1,976 2,051 2,076 2,095 EBITDA Margin (%) (268.0) (476.7) (298.3) (173.5) (74.4)
Total Current Assets 19,526 36,064 28,595 47,750 33,700 Pre-Tax Margin (%) (504.5) (489.7) (318.3) (190.9) (84.6)
Net Fixed Asset 827 1,470 1,477 1,486 1,496 Net Profit Margin (%) (427.0) (471.6) (304.6) (182.7) (80.9)
Other Non-Current Asset 9,756 117,603 117,988 118,431 118,940 Debt to Equity (%) - - - - -
Total Assets 30,109 155,137 148,060 167,666 154,135 Net Gearing (%) - - - - -
ST. Bank loan 697 1,606 - - -
Payables 1,970 5,546 9,776 11,974 13,681 Major Assumption
Other current Liabilities 3,097 5,142 5,142 5,142 5,142 20A 21A 22F 23F 24F
Total Current Liabilities 5,764 12,294 14,919 17,116 18,823 Blended GTV Growth 48.2% 44.1% 43.0% 40.0% 37.0%
LT.Debt 1,816 776 - - - Blended Gross Take Rate 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 2.0%
Other LT Liabilities 1,729 3,043 3,043 3,043 3,043 Blended Net Take Rate Rate -112.4% -87.7% -69.3% -65.4% -62.8%
Total Liabilities 9,309 16,113 17,961 20,159 21,866 E-commerce GTV Growth -5% 46% 45% 43% 40%
Minority Interest 683 (1,292) (4,792) (5,434) (4,872) On-Demand GTV Growth -28% 25% 24% 23% 22%
Total Equity 20,799 139,024 130,099 147,507 132,269 Fintech Service GTV Growth 1% 80% 65% 45% 35%
Bukalapak.com
Bloomberg: BUKA.IJ | Reuters: BUKA.JK
Technology Sector
Research Team
Suria Dharma Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking suria.dharma@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8148
Lionel Priyadi Macro Equity Strategist lionel.priyadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8854
Fikri C Permana Senior Economist fikri.permana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144
Muhamad Alfatih, CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Analyst m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129
William Mamudi, CFTe, CMT Senior Technical Analyst william.mamudi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382
Yosua Zisokhi Cement , Cigarette, Paper, Plantation,Telco Infra, Chemicals yosua.zisokhi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387
Andreas Kristo Saragih Construction, Toll Roads andreas.kristo@samuel.co.id +6221 2864 8303
Paula Ruth Telco, Digital Banks paula.ruth@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8332
Olivia Laura Anggita Healthcare, Property, Industrial Estate olivia.laura@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8346
M. Farras Farhan Media, Poultry, Oil & Gas, Technology farras.farhan@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8346
Pebe Peresia Automotive, Consumer Staples, Retail pebe.peresia@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8339
Adolf Richardo Editor adolf.richardo@samuel.co.id +6221 2864 8397
Ashalia Fitri Yuliana Research Associate ashalia.fitri@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8389
Muhammad Gibran Research Associate Muhammad.gibran@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392
Equity Institutional Team

Benny Bambang Soebagjo Head of Institutional Equity Sales benny.soebagjo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8312
Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8399
Anthony Yunus Institutional Equity Sales anthony.yunus@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8314
Widya Meidrianto Institutional Equity Sales widya.meidrianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8317
Fachruly Fiater Sales Trader fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8325
Lucia Irawati Sales Trader lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173
Muhammad Faisal Dealer m.faisal@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173
Private Wealth Management

Hisdi Liem Head of PWM Equity Sales hisdi.liem@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8188
Clarice Wijana PWM Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395
Gitta Wahyu Retnani PWM Equity Sales gitta.wahyu@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8365
Vincentius Darren PWM Equity Sales darren@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8348
Wahyudi Budiyono Dealer wahyudi.budiyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8152
Fixed Income Sales Team

R. Virine Tresna Sundari Head of Fixed Income virine.sundari@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8170
Rudianto Nugroho Fixed Income Sales rudianto.nugroho@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8306
Sany Rizal Keliobas Fixed Income Sales sany.rizal@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8337
Julio Simangunsong Fixed Income Sales julio.natanael@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8384
Nadya Attahira Fixed Income Sales Associate Nadya.attahira@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8305
Equity Retail / Online Team

Joseph Soegandhi Head of OLT joseph.soegandhi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8872
Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8372
Damargumilang Head of Equity Retail damargumilang@samuel.colid +6221 2854 8309
Andry Sukanto, AWP,CSA,CTA Head of Private Group & Individual Sales andry.sukanto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8308
Salt World Widjaja Retail Equity Sales salt@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8163
Michael Alexander Equity Retail michael.alexander@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8369
DISCLAIMER: Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no
part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s)
principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be
considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the
information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by
PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

GOTO Initiation 01072022 en

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

GOTO Initiation 01072022 en

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia

Bloomberg: GOTO.IJ | Reuters: GOTO.JK

HOLD (Initiation) Premium Growth Amidst Low Take Rate

Figure 1. GOTO’s Shareholder Structure

Key Investment Opportunities and Risks

Key Investment Opportunities

Key Investment Risks

Growing Internet Ecosystem

250 233 160

Figure 4. GMV of Indonesia’s Digital Economy (Sectoral; USDbn)

Source: Google, Temasek, Bain, SSI Research

E-Commerce: The Trump Card of Digital Economy

Figure 7. Indonesia GDP Forecast Figure 8. E-money Transaction Value in Indonesia

14,000 20 18.47 1.2

- Value of E-money Transaction (USDbn) Growth

GDP (IDRtn) Household Consumption (IDRtn)

Source: Bank Indonesia, Asian Banker

Mobility and Food Delivery: Key Drivers of On-Demand

Figure 9. GMV of Food Delivery and Logistics in Indonesia

Source: Google, Bain, Temasek

Figure 10. Food Delivery Revenue (Indonesia)

Source: Statista, SSI Research

Source: Statista, SSI Research

Figure 13. Food Delivery Market Share (Indonesia)

Source: Statista, SSI Research

Fintech: The Future of Transactions

Figure 14. Indonesia Fintech Transaction Value (USDmn)

Source: Statista, SSI Research

Business Overview & Outlook

Figure 15. GOTO’s On-Demand Products

Main Product/Services Products/ Services Description

Source: Company, SSI Research Source: Company, SSI Research

Source: Measurable AI Source: Company, SSI Research

Figure 20. Tokopedia Products

Figure 21. Tokopedia’s Promotion Banner Figure 22. Tokopedia’s Promotion

Source: Company Source: Company, SSI Research

Figure 23. E-commerce Monthly Visits

Source: Similarweb, SSI Research

Figure 24. Tokopedia Merchant Category

Regular Merchant Power Merchant Power Merchant Pro Official Store

Figure 25. Tokopedia GTV Growth

Source: Company, SSI Research

Figure 26. Tokopedia Take Rate Trajectory

Source: Company, SSI Research

Figure 27. GoTo Financial Products

Figure 28. GoTo Financial Monetization Scheme

Main Product/Services Main Operator Monetization Model Take Rate

Source: Company, SSI Research

Figure 29. GoTo Financial GTV Growth

Source: Company, SSI Research

Figure 30. GoTo Financial Gross and Net Take Rate

Source: Company, SSI Research

Figure 31. GOTO GTV and Take Rate Trajectory

Source: Company, SSI Research

Figure 32. GOTO Gross and Net Revenue Growth

Source: Company, SSI Research

Figure 33. GOTO EBITDA and Net Profit (Loss) Trajectory

Source: Company, SSI Research

Source: Company, SSI Research

Our calculation to determine GOTO’s valuation is presented in the following table.

Figure 35. GOTO Valuation Method

Multiple 2023 GTV Valuations Value to GOTO

Source: SSI Research