PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Tbk (TLKM) 15 July 2020

Fairly Steady 1Q20 Results

INDONESIA | TELECOMMUNICATION | COMPANY UPDATE BUY
MARKET PRICE IDR 3,080
Key Highlights TARGET PRICE IDR 4,300
▪ Revenue dipped 1.9% (YoY) to IDR 34.2 tn or 23.8% of our FY20 forecast, dragged down POTENTIAL UPSIDE +39.6%
by the tailspin in legacy services (-21.4% YoY) and network & telco services (-35.6% YoY).
COMPANY DATA
▪ Total Expenses shrunk 2.4% YoY, led by Marketing expenses (-29.3% YoY) and O&M
O/S SHARES (BN) : 99.06
expenses (-22.9% YoY) MARKET CAP (IDR TN) : 317.98
▪ EBITDA grew 7.0% (YoY) to IDR 18.8 tn with EBITDA margin expanded to 54.9% MARKET CAP (USD BN) : 22.80
compared with 50.3% a year ago. 52 - WK HI/LO (IDR) : 4,500/2,450
▪ Net Income fell to IDR 5.9 tn (-5.8% YoY), reflecting 28.3% of our FY20 forecast (IDR 20.7 3M AVG. VOLUME (MN SHARES): 143.898
PAR VALUE (IDR) : 50
tn). Net Income Margin edged down to 17.1% from 17.9% in 1Q19.
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS, %
Searching for A New Equilibrium REPUBLIC INDONESIA 52.09%
Data, Internet & IT Services grew by 7.2% YoY to IDR 17.8 tn driven by strong data traffic of BANK OF NEW YORK 4.49%
1,996 petabytes (+41.7% YoY, +3.5% QoQ). We are concerned that some advantages TLKM VANGUARD GROUP INC 1.71%
enjoyed from greater mobile data usage in the early stages of COVID-19 and PSBB (Large JP MORGAN CHASE & CO 1.23%
BLACKROCK INC 1.21%
Scale Social Restriction) measures would dissipate in 2Q20 as the government gradually VONTOBEL HOLDING AG 1.14%
reopened the economy in early June.
PRICE VS. JCI
Telkomsel introduced Kuota Ketengan as its newest prepaid internet offering specifically to
access Youtube only, Facebook only, Instagram only or main quota only. The package comes
with daily and weekly period options for various quota options.

IndiHome continued its strong growth momentum with revenue jumped 19.7% (YoY) to
IDR5.1 tn on the back of a sizeable increase (+31.4% YoY) in the number of subscribers.
IndiHome posted net additional 252,000 new subscribers during 1Q20 and is relatively on
the track with management’s FY20 target of 700,000 customers.

Revenues from Legacy Services fell 21.4% YoY due to impact of OTT services cannibalization. Source: PSI Research, Bloomberg
Enterprise segment recorded IDR 4.3 trillion (-32.65% YoY) in revenue as COVID-19 prompted
KEY FINANCIALS
a wave of project delay, cancelation, request for amendment, and delay on delivery.
IDR Bn FY18 FY19 FY20F FY21F FY22F
A New Set of Accounting Rules Revenue 130,784 135,567 143,952 152,565 161,040
Starting 1Q20, TLKM adopted new Indonesian accounting standards (PSAK 71, 72 and 73) EBITDA 60,251 65,572 70,559 75,215 79,767
which are mirroring to IFRS 9, 15 and 16. The adoption has impact to lower O&M expenses,
Net Profit 18,032 18,663 20,737 22,057 23,437
lower Marketing expenses, higher Total Assets and higher Total Liabilities. Furthermore,
EPS (IDR) 182 188 209 223 237
both EBITDA and Net Income were also impacted as these new standards resulted in higher P/E (x) 20.6 21.1 15.4 14.5 13.7
depreciation and higher interest charges. Without PSAK adoption, EBITDA stood at IDR 17.7 P/BV (x) 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.4 2.3
tn (+1.2% YoY) and Net Income was IDR 6 tn (-4.0% YoY). DER (x) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8
ROE (%) 23 23.5 24.5 24.6 24.7
The Unblocking of Netflix ROA (%) 13.1 12.5 13 13.2 13.4
TLKM opened access for Netflix in its networks after 4-year negotiation on the ground that Div Yield (%) 4.5 3.4 4.1 4.5 4.8
Netflix now is in full compliance with government regulation. IndiHome would likely stand
to benefit considering that being glued to requires gigantic amount of internet quota. For all Source: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia Research

we know, perhaps Netflix is already in the pipeline to be a replacement for HooQ.

Valuation Method: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Valuation
Stefanus Adrian Chandra (+62 57900800)
We reiterate our BUY rating for TLKM with a 12-month forward target price of IDR 4,300
stefchandra@phillip.co.id
(+39.6% upside) given stellar growth prospect in both data services and non-Telkomsel
business (i.e. IndiHome) would remain intact in foreseeable future. Our DCF-based target
price translates to 2020F EV/EBITDA of 6.8x vs its historical average 5 year of 6.2x. Key risks
to our view: stiffer competition which results in outside Java market share losses over the
next 2-3 quarters, unforeseen regulation changes as well as industry consolidation.

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 PT TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK COMPANY UPDATES

Figure 1 – TLKM 1Q20 Earning Reviews

Source: Company, Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 1 – Telkomsel Sachet Packages

Source: Company

Figure 1 – Big 3 Operators Subscribers (000) Figure 3 – TLKM Quarterly Data Payload (TB) and Yield (IDR/MB)

Source: Companies, Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company, Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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 PT TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK COMPANY UPDATES

Figure 3 -Revenue and EBITDA

Source: Company, Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 4 - EV/EBITDA Band

Source: Company, Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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 PT TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK COMPANY UPDATES

Financials
FYE 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F
Income Statement (IDR Bn)
Revenue 130,784 135,567 143,952 152,565 161,040
COGS (Ex D&A) 61,252 60,315 63,204 66,552 69,876
SG & A and Others (Ex D&A) 9,281 10,420 10,188 10,798 11,398
D&A 21,406 23,178 25,017 26,738 28,470
Operating profit / EBIT 38,845 42,394 45,543 48,476 51,297
EBITDA 60,251 65,572 70,559 75,215 79,767
Interest expense 3,507 4,240 4,881 5,227 5,342
Non-Operating Income 1,067 (246) 0 0 0
EBT 36,405 37,908 40,661 43,249 45,955
Tax expenses (Benefit) 9,426 10,316 10,165 10,812 11,489
Minority Interest 8,947 8,929 9,759 10,380 11,029
Net Income 18,032 18,663 20,737 22,057 23,437

Balance Sheet (IDR Bn)

Cash and equivalents 17,439 18,242 19,083 19,833 20,935
Account Receivable 12,141 12,089 12,837 13,605 14,361
Inventories 717 585 613 645 678
PPE – net 143,248 156,973 169,233 177,425 185,826
Other assets 32,651 33,319 33,633 34,402 35,202
Total assets 206,196 221,208 235,398 245,911 257,002
Account Payable 15,214 14,346 15,033 15,830 16,620
Accrued Expenses 12,769 13,736 13,431 14,234 15,025
Current Maturities 6,296 9,510 10,227 9,330 7,206
Short Term Debt 4,043 8,705 14,389 17,920 20,562
Long Term Debt 33,748 33,869 34,011 32,681 33,475
Other Liability 16,823 23,792 23,724 24,016 24,322
Total liabilities 88,893 103,958 110,815 114,011 117,210
Total Equity 117,303 117,250 124,583 131,900 139,792

Source: PSI Research

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FYE 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F

Cash Flow Statement (IDR Bn)
Net income 18,032 18,663 20,737 22,057 23,437
Depreciation & Amortization 21,406 23,178 25,017 26,738 28,470
Changes in WC (5,369) 6,581 (387) 864 870
Other 9,566 8,513 9,783 10,275 10,920
Cash Flow from Operations 43,635 56,935 55,151 59,935 63,697
Capex (33,797) (36,539) (35,988) (33,564) (35,429)
Other 486 (4,605) (1,702) (1,804) (1,904)
Cash Flow from Investing (33,311) (41,144) (37,690) (35,368) (37,333)
Change in Debt 8,615 7,997 6,543 1,304 1,312
Dividend (16,609) (13,524) (13,064) (14,516) (15,440)
Dividend to Minority Interest (10,134) (9,618) (10,099) (10,604) (11,134)
Other 98 157 0 0 (0)
Cash Flow from Financing (18,030) (14,988) (16,620) (23,816) (25,262)
Net change in cash (7,706) 803 841 751 1,102
Cash Ending 17,439 18,242 19,083 19,833 20,935

Valuation Ratios
P/E (X) 20.6 21.1 15.4 14.5 13.7
P/B (X) 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.4 2.3
EV/EBITDA (X) 6.9 6.8 5.3 5.0 4.7
Dividend Yield (%) 4.5 3.4 4.1 4.5 4.8
Growth & Margins
Growth
Revenue (%) 2.0 3.7 6.2 6.0 5.6
Operating profit (%) (12) 9.1 7.4 6.4 5.8
EBITDA (%) (6.8) 8.8 7.6 6.6 6.1
Net Income (%) (18.6) 3.5 11.1 6.4 6.3
Margins
Operating Margin (%) 29.7 31.3 31.6 31.8 31.9
EBITDA Margin (%) 46.1 48.4 49.0 49.3 49.5
Net Profit Margin (%) 13.8 13.8 14.4 14.5 14.6
Key ratios
ROA (%) 13.1 12.5 13.0 13.2 13.4
ROE (%) 23.0 23.5 24.5 24.6 24.7
Net Gearing (x) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4
Per share data (IDR)
EPS 182 188 209 223 237
DPS 168 137 132 147 156
BVPS 1,184 1,184 1,258 1,331 1,411

Source: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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Important Information

Rating for Sectors:

Overweight : We expect the industry to perform better than the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Neutral : We expect the industry to perform in line with the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Underweight : We expect the industry to under-perform the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.

Rating for Stocks:

Buy : The stock is expected to give total return (price appreciation + dividend yield) of > +10% over the next.12 months.
Hold : The stock is expected to give total return of > 0% to ≤ +10% over the next 12 months.
Sell : The stock is expected to give total return of < 0% over the next 12 months.
Outperform : The stock is expected to do slightly better than the market return. Equal to “moderate buy”
Underperform : The stock is expected to do slightly worse than the market return. Equal to “moderate sell”

Analyst Certification
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research
report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. The research analyst(s) also certify that no part
of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

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consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell any securities. PSI and its directors, officials
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employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in
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Investment Banking and Advisory activities: In the preceding 12 months, Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia and/or an affiliate is not involved in any
investment banking activities with PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk.
Market Maker and Liquidity Provider: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia and/or an affiliate is not a market maker / liquidity provider in securities issued
by PT. Telekomunikasi indonesia Tbk.
Other Financial Interests: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia owns 0 shares in PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk.

Analyst’s Disclosure:
Share Ownership: The analyst who wrote and published this report owns 0 shares in PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk.
Affiliation: The analyst who wrote and published this report is not affiliated with PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia and any of the affiliates of PT.
Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk.

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Macro | Strategy | Banks
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ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl. Jendral Sudirman Kav 33A, Jakarta, 10220 - Indonesia
Telp. (62-21) 57 900 800, Fax. (62-21) 57 900 809, Email: customercare@phillip.co.id Website: www.phillip.co.id | www.poems.co.id | www.poems.web.id

Komp. Ruko Mega Grosir Cempaka Mas Mangga Dua

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Blok D No. 7 Jakarta, 10640 Jl. Mangga Dua Selatan Jakarta 10730
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Puri Roxy
Metro Park Residence Tower Milan LG 16 Pusat Niaga Roxy Mas Blok B2/2
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Pantai Indah Kapuk Taman Palem

Jl. Pantai Indah Barat Rukan Ekslusif BGM Blok B-6 Citypark Business District, Blok B2 No. 12, Cengkareng, Jakbar 11730
Telp. (021) 5694 5791/92/93; Fax. (021) 56945790 Telp. (021) 22522147/48
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Tanah Abang Kelapa Gading

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- Jakarta Pusat 10250 Telp. (62-21) 7070 0050/4587/9264; Fax. (62-21) 453 2939;
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Citra Garden 2 Alam Sutera

Komp. Citra – Blok A/12, Kalideres, JakBar, 11830 Ruko Prominence Blok 38 - G No. 18
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Purwokerto Yogyakarta
Jln. Perintis Kemerdekaan No. 38 Kantor Perwakilan (KP) BEI Yogyakarta
Purwokerto - Jawa Tengah, 53110 Jl. Mangkubumi No. 111 Yogyakarta
Telp. (0281) 626 899 Telp. (0274) 557367
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Semarang Tegal
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Bandung Batam
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Jambi Denpasar
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Bandar Lampung Palembang

Jl. Pangeran Diponegoro 36A - Bandar Lampung, 35214 Kantor Perwakilan (KP) BEI Palembang
Telp. (0721) 474 234; Fax. (0721) 474 108 Jalan Angkatan 45 No.13 - 14 – Palembang, 30137
E-Mail: kk_lampung@yahoo.com Telp. (0711) 564 092 60
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Manado Yogyakarta
Kantor Perwakilan (KP) BEI Manado – Ruko Mega Style, Blok 1C No. 9, Kompleks Mega Mas, Kantor Perwakilan (KP) BEI Yogyakarta
Jalan Pierre Tendean Boulevard – Manado, 95000 Jalan Mangkubumi No. 111, Yogyakarta – Jawa Tengah
Telp. (0431) 882 0390 Telp. (0274) 557 367
E-Mail: chlief@phillip.co.id E-Mail: sugiyanto@phillip.co.id

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Jayapura Banjarmasin
Kantor Perwakilan (KP) BEI Jayapura - Komp. Ruko Pasifik Permai Blok. H-19, Jayapura Jl. A. Yani Km. 5,5 No. 2A
99112, Papua Banjarmasin 70249
Telp. (0967) 532 414 Telp. (0511) 6744 204
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Ambon Medan
Kantor Perwakilan (KP)- BEI Ambon Kompleks Multatuli Indah
Jln. Philip Latumahina, No. 16, Ruko C. Jl. Multatuli Blok CC No. 5 & 6
Kel. Honipopu, Kec. Sirimau, Ambon 97115 Medan 20151
Telp. (0911) 382 3336 Telp. (061) 457 4033, 457 4055
E-Mail: rahma@phillip.co.id E-Mail: adminmedan@phillip.co.id

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