Bank Central Asia

Bloomberg: BBCAI.IJ | Reuters: BBCA.JK

Banking Sector
11 February 2021 JCI Index: 6,222

BUY (from BUY) Update on FY20 Results

Target Price (IDR)
Potential Upside (%)
Price Comparison
Cons. Target Price (IDR)
SSI vs. Cons. (%)
40,500 (from 35,300) BBCA's net profit fell by -5% yoy in FY20 (-7.2% yoy in 4Q20 alone). Credit contracted -
17.7 2.5%, while deposits grew by +19.3% yoy. This helped maintain BBCA’s high liquidity,
with LDR at 65.8%. The net profit decline was very low compared to peers, even
though BBCA increased its provision expenses by +152.3% yoy. We project the bank’s
37,510
net profit to increase by +17.2% yoy in FY21F. We maintain our BUY recommendation
107.97
and raise our TP to IDR 40,500 (5.1x FY21F PBV).

Stock Information
Last Price (IDR)
Shares Issued (Mn)
Market Cap. (IDR Bn)
52-Weeks High/Low (IDR)
3M Avg. Daily Value (IDR Bn)
Free Float (%)
Shareholder Structure:
PT Dwimuria I A (%)
Public (%)
Stock Performance
(%) YTD
Absolute 1.6
JCI Return 4.1
Relative (2.4)
Stock Price & Volumes, 12M
A -5% net profit decline in FY20 (-9% qoq in 4Q20). BBCA's net profit fell -5% yoy in
FY20 to IDR 27.1 trillion, in line with SSI's projection. In 4Q20 alone, the bank’s net
34,400
profit decreased -7.2% yoy (-9% qoq) to IDR 7.1 trillion. Historically, 4Q is BBCA’s best
24,655 quarter, but this was not the case in 2020. The net profit decline in 4Q20 was mainly
848,132 caused by weak credit demand and higher provision expenses than usual (+125.7%
36,900/21,625 yoy), even though it was -5.2% lower than 3Q20. For the whole FY20, BBCA’s provision
678.8 expenses was recorded at IDR 11 trillion (+152.3% yoy). We project that BBCA’s net
profit will grow by +17.2% yoy in FY21F.
44.9
Net interest income grew +7.3% yoy. BBCA’s interest income slightly increased in FY20
54.9 (+2.3% yoy), while interest costs declined sharply (-16.3% yoy). This caused the bank’s
45.1 net interest income to increase by +7.3% yoy in FY20 to IDR 54.5 trillion. The bank’s
PPOP also rose +11.2% yoy, supported by higher trading income (+ 26% yoy) and lower
general and administrative expenses (-5.6% yoy). The decline in interest costs was
supported by the decline in CoF (-51bps yoy to 1.42%). On the other hand, BBCA’s
1M 3M 12M
earning assets yield fell by -100bps yoy to 6.92%, causing its NIM to drop by -20bps qoq
(6.3) 5.2 1.5 to 5.4%. The bank’s NIM may decline further in FY21 due to the low decline in CoF
(2.5) 12.9 4.5 when compared to the decline in earning assets yield.
(3.8) (7.7) (3.0)
Credit fell -2.5% yoy, while deposits grew +19.3% yoy. On a consolidated basis, BBCA’s
credit fell by -2.5% yoy, while deposits grew +19.3% yoy. This helped maintain BBCA’s
high liquidity with LDR at 65.8%. The only credit segment that experienced growth was
corporate loans, which rose +7.7% yoy. On the other hand, commercial and SME loans
fell -7.9% yoy while consumer loans declined -10.8% yoy. Housing loans fell -3.7% yoy,
and automotive loans declined -22.6% yoy. Regarding deposits, BBCA’s CASA grew quite
significantly (+21.0%) with current accounts and savings accounts each growing by
+23.7% and +19.6% yoy, respectively. Time deposits also grew, albeit at a lower rate
(+14% yoy). For credit quality, BBCA’s gross NPL was recorded at 1.8%, down -10bps
qoq. Its coverage ratio was also well-maintained at the level of 260.9%, with a LaR
coverage ratio (incl. COVID-19) of 18.8%.

Company Background Forecasts and Valuations (at closing price IDR 34,400 per share)
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk was established in 1955 by the Y/E Dec 18A 19A 20A 21F 22F
name of N.V. Perseroan Dagang Dan Industrie Semarang Net Interest Income (IDR Bn) 45,291 50,477 54,161 57,318 63,385
Knitting Factory and became a public entity in 2000. Pre Provision Profit 35,383 40,880 45,197 47,451 52,606
BBCA is the bank with the third largest asset in Net Profit (IDR Bn) 25,856 28,565 27,131 31,806 37,415
Indonesia. BBCA is also the biggest private bank in Operating Profit (IDR Bn) 32,706 36,289 33,569 39,344 46,288
Indonesia with the largest market capitalization in IDX.
EPS (IDR) 1,049 1,159 1,100 1,290 1,518
EPS Growth (%) 9.8 10.5 (5.0) 17.2 17.6
P/E Ratio (x) 33.0 29.9 31.4 26.8 22.8
BVPS (IDR) 6,151 7,059 7,484 8,224 9,097
P/BV Ratio (x) 5.6 4.9 4.6 4.2 3.8
DPS (IDR) 255 340 555 550 645
Dividend Yield (%) 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.9
Suria Dharma ROAE (%) 18.3 17.5 15.1 16.4 17.5
+62 21 2854 8387 ROAA (%) 3.3 3.3 2.7 2.8 2.9
Suria.dharma@samuel.co.id CAR Tier-I (%) 22.4 22.8 24.8 23.5 24.5
CAR Total (%) 23.4 23.8 25.8 24.5 25.5

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Bank Central Asia
Bloomberg: BBCAI.IJ | Reuters: BBCA.JK
Banking Sector
11 February 2021 JCI Index: 6,222

Table 1. Kinerja FY20

(Reported figures)
IDR Bn 4Q19 3Q20 4Q20 QoQ YoY FY19 FY20 YoY FY20F Ach.

Interest Income 16,984 16,139 16,799 4.1% -1.1% 64,352 65,875 2.4% 65,959 100%
Interest Expenses 3,338 2,687 2,771 3.1% -17.0% 13,528 11,329 -16.3% 12,372 92%
Net Interest Income 13,646 13,452 14,028 4.3% 2.8% 50,824 54,547 7.3% 53,588 102%
Operating Profit 9,955 9,688 4,755 -50.9% -52.2% 36,289 29,433 -18.9% 34,079 86%
Pre Provision Profit 11,049 12,276 11,613 -5.4% 5.1% 40,880 45,420 11.1% 44,434 102%
Net Profit 7,644 7,795 7,096 -9.0% -7.2% 28,565 27,131 -5.0% 27,604 98%

Loan 603,743 581,851 588,672 1.2% -2.5% 603,743 588,672 -2.5%

Current 185,722 205,424 229,821 11.9% 23.7% 185,722 229,821 23.7%
Saving 346,291 391,134 414,041 5.9% 19.6% 346,291 414,041 19.6%
Time Deposit 172,778 184,120 196,890 6.9% 14.0% 172,778 196,890 14.0%
704,791 780,678 840,752 7.7% 19.3% 704,791 840,752 19.3%
Source: SSI Research

Figure 1. Komposisi DPK dan Kredit

Loan Composition Third Party Fund Composition

26% 26% 25% 25% 24%

49% 49% 50% 50% 49%
34% 32% 31% 32% 32%

26% 27% 26% 26% 27%

40% 43% 44% 44% 44%
25% 23% 24% 24% 23%

4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20
Corporate Commercial and SME Consumer Time Deposit Current Account Saving Account

Loan Amount (IDR Bn) Third Party Fund Amount (IDR Bn)
290,000 450,000
260,000 400,000
230,000 350,000
200,000 300,000
170,000 250,000
140,000 200,000
110,000 150,000
80,000 100,000
50,000 50,000
4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20
Corporate Commercial and SME Consumer Saving Account Current Account Time Deposit

Source: SSI Research

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Bank Central Asia
Bloomberg: BBCAI.IJ | Reuters: BBCA.JK
Banking Sector
11 February 2021 JCI Index: 6,222

Key Financial Figures

Profit and Loss Key Ratio (our calculations may differ slightly from actual)
(IDR Bn) 18A 19A 20A 21F 22F (%) 18A 19A 20A 21F 22F
Net Interest Income 45,291 50,477 54,161 57,318 63,385 Profitability
Operating Income 32,706 36,289 33,569 39,344 46,288 NIM 6.3 6.4 6.0 6.1 6.0
Pre Provision Profit 35,383 40,880 45,197 47,451 52,606 ROAE 18.3 17.5 15.1 16.4 17.5
Profit before Tax 32,706 36,289 33,569 39,344 46,288 ROAA 3.3 3.3 2.7 2.8 2.9
Net Profit 25,856 28,565 27,131 31,806 37,415 CIR 43.9 42.9 39.9 41.0 40.8
BOPO 56.1 57.3 61.2 58.5 56.3

Liquidity
LDR 85.4 84.0 68.8 66.5 66.0

Balance Sheet CASA Ratio 76.7 75.9 76.9 77.4 77.5

Yr-end Dec (IDR Bn) 18A 19A 20A 21F 22F
Cash 21,691 25,421 24,322 23,070 59,138 Asset Quality
CA and Placement 83,729 89,018 86,905 138,293 152,154 Gross NPL 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.4
Marketable Securities 109,081 142,983 192,353 211,646 232,779 NPL Coverage 178.7 174.9 217.5 274.6 272.7
Gross Loan 538,099 586,940 574,590 617,684 685,629
Loan Provision (13,569) (14,906) (26,946) (24,255) (25,243) Capital
Other Assets 85,756 89,533 224,345 239,147 256,710 CAR 23.4 23.8 24.4 24.7 25.0
Total Assets 824,788 918,989 1,075,570 1,205,586 1,361,167
Deposits 629,812 698,980 834,944 929,353 1,038,774 Growth Rate
Current Account 166,822 184,918 228,985 256,463 287,238 Gross Loan 15.1 9.1 (2.1) 7.5 11.0
Saving Account 316,182 345,634 413,161 462,741 518,270 Deposits 8.4 11.0 19.5 11.3 11.8
Time Deposit 146,808 168,428 192,798 210,149 233,266 Net Interest Income 7.7 11.5 7.3 5.8 10.6
Dep. from Other Banks 6,494 6,717 10,163 15,376 23,263 Operating Income 11.3 11.0 (7.5) 17.2 17.6
Borrowings 2,093 2,333 1,307 733 411 Net Profit 9.8 10.5 (5.0) 17.2 17.6
Securities Issued 240 1,348 591 620 651
Other Liabilities 34,395 35,468 43,851 56,633 73,679 Macro
Total Liabilities 673,035 744,846 890,856 1,002,715 1,136,778 GDP Growth 5.2 5.2 (3.0) 4.0 4.9
Minority Interest 94 98 103 109 114 BI RR Rate 5.8 5.0 3.8 4.3 4.5
Total Equity 151,660 174,044 184,522 202,763 224,275 USD/IDR, average 14,300 14,200 14,200 14,650 15,075

Peers Comparison
Total Total
Market EPS
YTD Chg. Equity Assets ROE (%) PBV (x) PE (x)
Ticker Cap Growth (%)
(IDR Tn) (IDR Tn)
(IDR Tn) (%) 9M20 9M20 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F
BBCA 853.1 2.2 179.1 1,003.6 13.8 16.6 4.8 4.4 35.3 27.7 (15.4) 27.3
BBRI 573.5 11.5 194.7 1,447.8 14.7 17.0 3.1 2.8 29.6 17.5 (43.7) 69.4
BMRI 303.3 2.8 189.3 1,406.7 12.4 14.3 4.3 3.9 17.7 12.8 (37.7) 38.7
BBNI 115.6 0.4 112.9 915.4 8.7 12.7 1.0 0.9 38.8 9.0 (80.6) 332.5
BBTN 18.4 0.9 17.6 357.0 6.7 11.0 0.8 1.1 13.3 7.2 227.5 84.7
Average 13.0 15.5 3.8 3.4 29.7 20.1 (28.4) 59.6
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg (valuation at last price)

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Bank Central Asia
Bloomberg: BBCA.IJ | Reuters: BBCA.JK
Banking Sector
11 February 2021 JCI Index: 6,222

Research Team
Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking,
Suria Dharma suria.dharma@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8148
Consumer Staples
Ahmad Mikail Zaini Economist ahmad.mikail@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8396
William Mamudi, CFTe, CMT Technical Analyst william.mamudi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129
Cement , Cigarette,Paper, Plantation,Telco
Yosua Zisokhi yosua.zisokhi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387
Infra, Chemical
Dessy Lapagu Aviation, Coal, Metal, Retail dessy.lapagu@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392
Automotive,Construction, Mining Cont.,
Selvi Ocktaviani selvi.ocktaviani@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8393
Precast,Telco, Toll Roads
Ilham Akbar Ind. Estate, Property,Oil & Gas ilham.akbar@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144
Nashrullah Putra Media, Poultry nashrullah.putra@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8739
Olivia Laura Healthcare olivia.laura@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144
Calista Muskitta Research Associate calista.muskitta@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8331

Equity Institutional Team

Benny Bambang Soebagjo Head of Institutional Equity Sales benny.soebagjo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8312
Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8399
Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8325
Henry Sutanto Institutional Equity Sales hensry.sutanto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8329
Sylviawati Customer Service sylviawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8193

Private Wealth Management

Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM Equity Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8380
Clarice Wijana PWM Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395
Gitta Wahyu Retnani PWM Equity Sales gitta.wahyu@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8365
Wahyudi Budiyono Dealer wahyudi.budiyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8152

Equity Retail Team

Kelvin Long Head of Retail Equity Sales kelvin.long@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8150
Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173
Salt World Widjaja Retail Equity Sales salt@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8163

Fixed Income Sales Team

R. Virine Tresna Sundari Head of Fixed Income virine.sundari@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8170
Rudianto Nugroho Fixed Income Sales rudianto.nugroho@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8306
Sany Rizal Keliobas Fixed Income Sales sany.rizal@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8337
Rahmawati Fixed Income Sales rahmawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8385

Online Trading Sales Team

Joseph Soegandhi Head of OLT joseph.soegandhi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8872
Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8371

DISCLAIMER: Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and
no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The
analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any
recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no
circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all
investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot
be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

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