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Blended Average Revenue per User (ARPU) increased to IDR31.400, from previously
IDR27.900 in 1H 2019. Data traffic also surged 60.8% YoY to 2,216 petabytes. Average Source: PSI Research, Bloomberg
Minutes of Usage (MOU) per customer shrank to 29.5 minutes (-16.8% YoY), in line with the
negative industry trend of traditional voice services. KEY FINANCIALS
Revenue Breakdown
Data 7,308 9,342 27.8% 4,397 4,945 12.5%
Margins
Operating Margin 6.5% 8.1% 3.0% 12.9%
EBITDA Margin 36.1% 40.4% 36.5% 44.0%
Net Margin (2.7%) (2.5%) (9.3%) 3.8%
Figure 2 – ISAT Quarterly EBITDA (Bn) and EBITDA Margin Figure 3 – ISAT Net Debt to EBITDA
Financials
FYE 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F
Income Statement (IDR Bn)
Revenue 23,140 26,118 28,211 30,229 32,414
COGS (Ex D&A) 12,043 12,343 13,123 14,097 15,086
SG & A and Others (Ex D&A) 4,596 3,919 4,117 4,510 4,658
D&A 8,249 9,570 9,661 10,081 10,873
Operating profit / EBIT (465) 286 1,310 1,541 1,798
EBITDA 7,784 9,856 11,161 11,622 12,670
Interest expense 2,125 2,761 2,779 2,846 2,988
Non-Operating Income (74) 120 0 0 0
EBT 39,128 43,110 48,308 54,433 60,109
Tax expenses (578) (43) (367) (326) (297)
Minority Interest 319 61 141 151 162
Net Income (2,404) 1,569 (1,243) (1,130) (1,054)
Valuation Ratios
P/E (X) (3.8) 10.2 (10.3) (11.3) (12.1)
P/B (X) 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2
EV/EBITDA (X) 4.3 4.2 3.7 3.8 3.6
Dividend Yield 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Growth & Margins
Growth
Revenue (22.7%) 12.9% 8.0% 7.2% 7.2%
Operating profit (111.5%) N/A 357.7% 17.6% 16.7%
EBITDA (39.6%) 26.6% 13.2% 4.1% 9.0%
Net Income (311.6%) 165.3% 179.2% 9.1% 6.7%
Margins
Operating Margin (2.0%) 1.1% 4.6% 5.1% 5.5%
EBITDA Margin 33.6% 37.7% 39.6% 38.4% 39.1%
Net Profit Margin (10.4%) 6.0% (4.4%) (3.7%) (3.3%)
Key ratios
ROA (4.5%) 2.5% (2.0%) (1.7%) (1.6%)
ROE (19.8%) 11.4% (9.9%) (9.7%) (9.8%)
Net Gearing 173.5% 157.6% 174.0% 198.4% 233.1%
Per share data (IDR)
EPS (442) 289 (229) (208) (194)
DPS 73 0 0 0 0
BVPS 2,233 2,523 2,320 2,140 1,975
Important Information
Rating for Sectors:
Overweight : We expect the industry to perform better than the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12
months.
Neutral : We expect the industry to perform in line with the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12
months.
Underweight : We expect the industry to under-perform the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Analyst Certification
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report hereby certify that all of the views expressed
in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. The research
analyst(s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Disclaimers
This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. But
we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia (PSI) accept no liability
whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell
any securities. PSI and its directors, officials and/or employees may have positions in, and may affect transactions in securities
mentioned herein from time to time in the open market or otherwise, and may receive brokerage fees or act as principal or agent
in dealing with respect to these companies. PSI may also seek investment banking business with companies covered in its research
reports. As a result investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this
report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Disclosure
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officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large
number of corporations in Indonesia and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities
(including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Sekuritas
Indonesia, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia, including but not limited to its officers, directors,
employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have participated in or invested in transactions with the issuer(s)
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officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to
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Investment Banking and Advisory activities: In the preceding 12 months, Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia and/or an affiliate is not
involved in any investment banking activities with PT. Indosat Tbk.
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securities issued by PT. Indosat Tbk.
Other Financial Interests: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia owns 0 shares in PT. Indosat Tbk.
Analyst’s Disclosure:
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Affiliation: The analyst who wrote and published this report is not affiliated with PT. Indosat and any of the affiliates of PT. Indosat
Tbk.
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