Semen Indonesia (Persero) (SMGR IJ) 24 August 2018

Enabling Future Growth

INDONESIA | BASIC INDUSTRY - CEMENT | 1H18 UPDATE BUY (Maintained)
MARKET PRICE IDR 8,750
2Q18 Results TARGET PRICE IDR 11,300
We were somewhat startled by SMGR 2Q18 result in which revenues reached IDR 6.7 bn POTENTIAL UPSIDE +29.1%
(5.9% YoY, 1.1% QoQ), unperturbed by fewer working days due to Eid holiday in June and
lower sales volume (-1.5% QoQ). Margins were expanded substantially with GPM ticked up COMPANY DATA
to 31.1% (vs 25.9% in 1Q18, 30.3% in 2Q17) and OPM to 14.3% (vs 11.3% in 1Q18, 11.9% in O/S SHARES (BN) : 5.93
MARKET CAP (IDR TN) : 51.9
2Q17) while NPM reached 8.4% (vs 6.2% in 1Q18, 5.5% in 2Q17). It seems to us that SMGR
MARKET CAP (USD BN) : 3.55
chose margin improvement over maintaining market share, which at the end of 1H18 52 - WK HI/LO (IDR) : 11,775/6,500
shrunk 189 bps to 39.4%. 3M AVG. VOLUME (MN SHARES): 6.28
PAR VALUE (IDR) : 100
As management explained in 2Q earnings call, this can be considered as an immediate
result of strategic initiatives that SMGR undertook to stay ahead of the game.
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS, %
GOVERNMENT OF RI 51.0
For instance, Marketing and Supply Chains are now centralized on the holding company PUBLIC (<5%) 49.0
level and are directly supervised by one director to achieve supply chain optimization and
to eradicate brand cannibalization.
PRICE VS. JCI

Furthermore, strategic procurement, particularly coal, is also centralized and operational 120
efficiency is attained through transformation in cost structure. Consequently, COGS/ton 110
declined by 4.5% QoQ, meanwhile OPEX decreased by 3% YoY. 100
90
1H18 Results
Accumulatively, 1H18 revenues amounted to IDR 13.3 tn (+4.7% YoY) achieving 45% of 80
consensus and our forecast. The cement segment went up slightly (+1.4% YoY) due to 6% 70
hike in Average Selling Price (ASP), especially in bagged cement which took effect 60
November last year. Blended cement ASP though declined by 1.7%. The non cement
segment grew 14.3%.

COGS rose 7.4% YoY, driven by the cost of coal (+11.7%), thereby bringing down gross SMGR Rebased JCI Rebased
profit to IDR 3.8 tn (-1.5% YoY). Operating profit increased modestly by 0.4% YoY thanks to
declining OPEX (-3% YoY). Source: PSI Research, Bloomberg

KEY FINANCIALS
Soaring finance costs further brought down EBIT and net profit by 11.7% and 11.1%
IDR bn FY17A FY18F FY19F
respectively. Margins in 1H18 remained compressed, GPM was at 28.5% (vs 30.3% in
1H17), OPM was down to 12.8% (vs 13.3%) and NPM dipped to 7.3% (vs 8.6%). Revenue 27,814 29,507 31,212
EBITDA 5,190 5,464 6,239
Sales Volume Net Profit 2,014 2,050 2,564
Sales from Indonesian facilities in 1H18 reached 13.3 mn tonnes (+3% YoY), export was 1.5 EPS, IDR 340 346 432
mn tonnes (+53.5% YoY), whereas domestic sales was 11.8 mn tonnes (-1.2% YoY). Overall, P/E, x 29.16 25.31 20.24
1H18 total group sales volume (including TLCC) was 14.7 mn tonnes (+3.1% YoY) P/BV, x 2.03 1.72 1.63
EV/EBITDA, x 12.84 10.87 9.43
In addition, 7M18 domestic sales figure is up to 14.3 mn tonnes (+0.8% vs industry: 5.1%), EV/Ton,IDR Mn 1.88 1.66 1.54
ROA, % 4.1% 4.1% 4.9%
whereas total SMGR’s sales increased 4.3% to 17.5 mn tonnes.
Div. Yield, % 1.37% 1.58% 1.98%
Source: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia Research
BUY Maintained
We maintained our BUY recommendation on SMGR, with unchanged target price of IDR
Valuation Method: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
11,300 following inline results, which implies 32.7x FY18F P/E ratio and 13.6 FY18F
EV/EBITDA. Downside risks to our call include higher than predicted energy prices, lower
Anugerah Zamzami Nasr (+62 57900800)
sales volume and ASP.
anugerah.zamzami@phillip.co.id

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 SEMEN INDONESIA (PERSERO) UPDATE REPORT

Financial Highlights
IDR Bn 6M18 6M17 YoY 2Q18 2Q17 YoY 1Q18 QoQ %FY18F
Cement 11,523 11,363 1.4% 5,686 5,586 1.8% 5,837 -2.6%
Non Cement 4,723 4,131 14.3% 2,320 2,276 1.9% 2,403 -3.4%
Elimination (2,937) (2,780) 5.6% (1,315) (1,547) -15.0% (1,622) -18.9%
Revenue 13,308 12,714 4.7% 6,691 6,315 5.9% 6,618 1.1% 45.1%
COGS (9,510) (8,857) 7.4% (4,609) (4,402) 4.7% (4,901) -6.0%
Gross Profit 3,799 3,857 -1.5% 2,082 1,914 8.8% 1,717 21.3% 46.4%
GPM 28.5% 30.3% 31.1% 30.3% 25.9%

Operating Expenses (2,098) (2,162) -3.0% (1,128) (1,163) -3.0% (970) 16.3%
Operating Profit 1,701 1,694 0.4% 954 750 27.2% 747 27.7% 48.5%
OPM 12.8% 13.3% 14.3% 11.9% 11.3%

Finance Income 74 66 11.3% 34 34 -0.1% 40 -15.3%

Finance Costs (460) (262) 75.6% (231) (166) 38.8% (229) 0.7%
Share in Associates 3 (5) -152.4% 1 0 577.8% 2 -60.7%
EBT 1,318 1,494 -11.7% 758 618 22.6% 560 35.3% 47.1%
Tax (353) (389) -9.2% (204) (264) -22.6% (149) 37.0%
Non Controlling Interests (6) 12 -152.1% (6) 8 -175.7% (0) 1709.4%
Net Income 971 1,093 -11.1% 560 346 61.6% 412 36.0% 47.4%
NPM 7.3% 8.6% 8.4% 5.5% 6.2%

Total Group Sales (mn tons) 14.7 14.2 3.1% 7.3 7.0 3.4% 7.4 -1.5%

Figure 1 – SMGR Monthly Domestic Cement Sales (Mn tonnes) Figure 2 – Industry Domestic Cement Consumption (Mn tonnes)
3.0 8.0
7.0
2.5 6.0
5.0
2.0
4.0

1.5 3.0
2.0
1.0 1.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2018 2017 2016 2018 2017 2016

Source: PSI Research, Company, ASI (Indonesian Cement Association) Source: PSI Research, Company, ASI

We expect domestic cement consumption to rise 5.5%-6.5% this year and the national utilization rate
is to stabilize at 64%-66%, barely changed from that of 2017. In our view, SMGR is well positioned to
capitalize on government’s plan to increase infrastructure spending in 2019 in order to enhance
connectivity throughout the archipelago. SMGR had built 2 packaging plant in North Maluku and
Bengkulu, each with capacity of 500,000 ton/year. These plants are scheduled to be commercially
operational in 3Q18 at the earliest.

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 SEMEN INDONESIA (PERSERO) UPDATE REPORT

Figure 3 – SMGR Quarterly Margins

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
1Q13

3Q15

1Q18
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12

3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15

1Q16
3Q16
1Q17
3Q17

GPM OPM NPM

Source: Bloomberg, PSI Research, Company

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 SEMEN INDONESIA (PERSERO) UPDATE REPORT

Financials
FYE 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F
Income Statement (IDR bn)
Revenue 26,134 27,814 29,507 31,212 33,418
COGS 16,278 19,854 21,316 22,288 23,576
Gross profit 9,856 7,960 8,191 8,924 9,841
Operating expenses 4,629 4,616 4,686 4,757 4,854
Operating profit / EBIT 5,227 3,344 3,505 4,167 4,988
EBITDA 7,406 5,190 5,464 6,239 7,206
Interest income 184 169 195 207 220
Interest expense 347 704 860 841 808
Other non-operating Income (Loss) 16 53 53 53 53
Share in net profit of associates 37 -10 10 11 10
EBT 5,085 2,747 2,798 3,491 4,359
Tax expenses 550 704 717 894 1,117
Minority Interest 13 29 31 33 35
Net Income 4,522 2,014 2,050 2,564 3,208

Balance Sheet (IDR bn)

Cash and Cash Equivalents 2,834 3,638 3,859 4,082 4,371
Account Receivable 4,018 4,995 5,299 5,605 6,001
Inventories 2,671 3,686 3,958 4,138 4,377
PPE - net 30,847 32,523 33,136 33,779 34,463
Other assets 3,856 4,121 4,195 4,602 5,127
Total assets 44,227 48,964 50,447 52,207 54,340
Account Payable 4,383 5,250 5,636 5,893 6,234
Accrued Expenses 677 630 640 649 663
Other current liabilities 1,281 1,003 1,008 1,070 1,148
Total Debt 6,260 10,019 9,884 9,583 9,111
Other non-current liabilities 1,051 1,622 1,626 1,647 1,674
Total liabilities 13,653 18,524 18,794 18,842 18,828
Shareholders' Equity 2,507 2,182 2,182 2,182 2,182
Minority Interest 1,539 1,524 1,493 1,461 1,426
Retained earnings 26,528 26,733 27,978 29,722 31,904
Total Equity 30,574 30,439 31,653 33,364 35,512

Margins
Gross Margin 37.7% 28.6% 27.8% 28.6% 29.4%
Operating Margin 20.0% 12.0% 11.9% 13.4% 14.9%
Net Profit Margin 17.3% 7.2% 7.0% 8.4% 9.9%

Source: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia Research, Company

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 SEMEN INDONESIA (PERSERO) UPDATE REPORT

FYE 2016A 2017E 2018F 2019F 2020F

Cash Flow Statement (IDR bn)
Net income 4,522 2,014 2,050 2,564 3,208
Depreciation & Amortization 2,178 1,846 1,959 2,072 2,218
Changes in NWC (365) (2,088) (202) (448) (569)
Others (569) 659 (8) (147) (184)
Cash Flow from Operations 5,766 2,431 3,799 4,041 4,673
Capex (7,790) (3,452) (2,500) (2,644) (2,831)
Others 23 215 (106) (19) (21)
Cash Flow from Investing (7,767) (3,237) (2,606) (2,664) (2,853)
Dividends paid (1,809) (1,809) (806) (820) (1,026)
Increases/(decreases) in debt 2,259 3,759 (135) (301) (472)
Others 421 (341) (31) (33) (35)
Cash Flow from Financing 871 1,610 (972) (1,154) (1,532)
Net change in Cash (1,130) 803 221 223 289
CCE Ending 2,834 3,638 3,859 4,082 4,371

Valuation Ratios
P/E (X) 12.04 29.16 25.31 20.24 16.18
P/B (X) 1.87 2.03 1.72 1.63 1.52
Dividend Yield (%) 3.32% 1.37% 1.58% 1.98% 2.47%
EV/EBITDA (X) 8.02 12.84 10.87 9.43 8.06
EV/Tonne (IDR Mn) 1.87 1.88 1.66 1.54 1.42

Growth
Cement Revenue -4.7% 0.2% 6.5% 6.1% 7.8%
Revenue -3.0% 6.4% 6.1% 5.8% 7.1%
Gross profit -7.4% -19.2% 2.9% 9.0% 10.3%
Operating profit -12.1% -36.0% 4.8% 18.9% 19.7%
EBT -13.1% -46.0% 1.9% 24.8% 24.9%
Net Income 0.0% -55.5% 1.8% 25.1% 25.1%

Key ratios
ROA 10.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.9% 5.9%
ROE 14.8% 6.6% 6.5% 7.7% 9.0%
Current Ratio 1.3x 1.6x 1.6x 1.6x 1.6x
DER 0.20x 0.33x 0.31x 0.29x 0.26x
Net Gearing 11.2% 20.9% 19.0% 16.5% 13.3%

Per share data (IDR)

EPS 762 340 346 432 541
DPS 305 136 138 173 216
BVPS 4,895 4,875 5,085 5,379 5,747

Source: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia Research, Company

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 SEMEN INDONESIA (PERSERO) UPDATE REPORT

Ratings History

13,000 PT Semen Indonesia (Persero)

Source: Bloomberg, PSI
12,000

11,000

10,000

9,000

8,000 Market Price

Target Price
7,000

6,000
Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18
Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18
Jan-16
Mar-16

Jan-17
Mar-17

Jan-18
Mar-18

Jan-19
Mar-19
May-16
Jul-16

May-17
Jul-17

May-18
Jul-18

May-19
Jul-19
1

3
PSR Rating System
Total Returns Recommendation Rating
> 10% Buy 1
0% to +10% Hold 2
<-0% Sell 3
Remarks
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative
factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price
appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before
making our final recommendation.

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 SEMEN INDONESIA (PERSERO) UPDATE REPORT

Important Information

Rating for Sectors:

Overweight : We expect the industry to perform better than the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Neutral : We expect the industry to perform in line with the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Underweight : We expect the industry to under-perform the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.

Rating for Stocks:

Buy : The stock is expected to give total return (price appreciation + dividend yield) of > +10% over the next 12 months.
Hold : The stock is expected to give total return of > 0% to ≤ +10% over the next 12 months.
Sell : The stock is expected to give total return of < 0% over the next 12 months.
Outperform : The stock is expected to do slightly better than the market return. Equal to “moderate buy”
Underperform : The stock is expected to do slightly worse than the market return. Equal to “moderate sell”

Analyst Certification:
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this
research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. The research analyst(s) also certify that
no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research
report.

Disclaimers:
This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. But we do not make
any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia (PSI) accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or
consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell any securities. PSI and its directors, officials
and/or employees may have positions in, and may affect transactions in securities mentioned herein from time to time in the open market or
otherwise, and may receive brokerage fees or act as principal or agent in dealing with respect to these companies. PSI may also seek investment
banking business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Disclosure:
Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia, including but not limited to its officers, directors,
employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in
Indonesia and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or
underwriting activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip
Sekuritas Indonesia, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have
participated in or invested in transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, and may have performed services for or
solicited business from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Indonesia, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia,
including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have provided advice or
investment services to such companies and investments or related investments, as may be mentioned in this report.

Country-Specific Disclaimers
Australia: This report is produced by PT Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia and is being distributed in Australia by Phillip Capital Limited (A ustralian
Financial Services Licence No. 246827). This report contains general securities advice and does not take into account your personal objectives,
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Investment Banking and Advisory activities: In the preceding 12 months, Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia and/or an affiliate is not involved in any
investment banking activities with PT. Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.
Market Maker and Liquidity Provider: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia and/or an affiliate is not a market maker / liquidity provider in securities issued by
PT. Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.
Other Financial Interests: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia owns 0 shares in PT. Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.

Analyst’s Disclosure:
Share Ownership: The analyst who wrote and published this report owns 0 shares in PT. Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.
Affiliation: The analyst who wrote and published this report is not affiliated with Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk and any of the affiliates of Semen
Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.

Page | 7 | PHILLIP SEKURITAS INDONESIA


Contact Information (Indonesia Research Team)
Management
Jasa Adhimulya
(Head, Research - Equities)
Banking | Economist
Jasa Adhimulya +62 21 57 900 800
jamulya@phillip.co.id
Retail Trade | FMCG
Mohamad Adityo Nugroho
mohamad.adityo@phillip.co.id
AUSTRALIA
Phillip Capital Limited
Level 10, 330 Collins Street
Melbourne VIC 3000
Australia
Tel (61) 3 8633 9800
Fax (61) 3 9629 8882
Website: www.phillipcapital.com.au
FRANCE
King & Shaxson Capital Limited
3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008
Paris France
Tel (33-1 45633100)
Fax (33-1) 45636017
Website: www.kingandshaxson.com
INDONESIA
PT Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia
ANZ Tower Level 23B,
Jl Jend Sudirman Kav. 33A
Jakarta 10220 – Indonesia
Tel (62-21) 5790 0800
Fax (62-21) 5790 0809
Website:www.phillip.co.id
MALAYSIA
Phillip Capital Management SdnBhd
B-3-6 Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II,
No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450
Kuala Lumpur
Tel (603) 2162 8841
Fax +603 2166 5099
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THAILAND
Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd
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Bangrak
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Tel (66-2) 635 1700 / 268 0999
Fax (66-2) 268 0921
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UNITED STATES
Phillip Capital Inc
141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050
Chicago Board of Trade Building
Chicago, IL 60604 USA
Tel 1 (312) 356 9000
Fax 1 (312) 356 9005
Website: www.phillipcapital.com
SEMEN INDONESIA (PERSERO) UPDATE REPORT
+62 21 57 900 800
jamulya@phillip.co.id
Cement
Anugerah Zamzami Nasr +62 21 57 900 800
anugerah.zamzami@phillip.co.id
Property
Dwi Prisetyowati +62 21 57 900 800
dwi@phillip.co.id
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Websites: www.phillip.com.hk
JAPAN
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Fax (81-3) 36678806
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Tel (65) 6533 6001 (General)
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Plantation
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CHINA
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Page | 8 | PHILLIP SEKURITAS INDONESIA
 SEMEN INDONESIA (PERSERO) UPDATE REPORT

ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl. Jendral Sudirman Kav 33A, Jakarta, 10220 - Indonesia
Telp. (62-21) 57 900 800, Fax. (62-21) 57 900 809, Email: customercare@phillip.co.id
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Komp. Ruko Mega Grosir Cempaka Mas Mangga Dua

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Puri Roxy
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Pantai Indah Kapuk Taman Palem

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Tanah Abang Kelapa Gading

Pusat Grosir Metro Tanah Abang (PGMTA) Zona 3 Lt. 5, No. 001 Jl. K.H Jl. Boulevard Raya Blok WB2/27 Kelapa Gading Jakarta Utara
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Purwokerto Yogyakarta
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Purwokerto - Jawa Tengah, 53110 Jl. Mangkubumi No. 111 Yogyakarta
Telp. (0281) 626 899 Telp. (0274) 557367
E-Mail: haddy1812@gmail.com E-mail: sugiyanto@phillip.co.id

Semarang Tegal
Jl. Karang Wulan Timur No. 2 - 4 Semarang Kompleks Nirmala Square Blok C no.7
Indonesia Jl. YosSudarso - Tegal 52121
Telp. (024) 3555959; Fax. (024) 3513194 Telp. (0283) 340774
E-Mail: adminsmg@phillip.co.id E-mail: ary@phillip.co.id

Bandung Batam
Komp. Paskal Hypersquare Blok D-40 Kompleks Mahkota Raya
Telp. (022) 8606 0765; Fax : (022) 860 61 120 Blok A no. 10 Batam Centre, Kota Batam 29456, Kepri
E-Mail: adminbandung@phillip.co.id; felix@phillip.co.id Telp. (62-778) 748 3337/3030/3131; Fax. (62-778) 7483117
E-Mail: phillip_batam2@yahoo.com

Surabaya Pontianak
Jln. Flores No. 11 Surabaya, 60281 Kantor Perwakilan (KP) BEI Pontianak - Komplek Perkantoran Central
Telp. (031) 5015777; Fax. (031) 5010567 Perdana Blok A2-A3
E-Mail: kadim.phillip@gmail.com Jalan Perdana – Pontianak, 78124
Telp. (0561) 8102257
E-Mail: andi.abdi@phillip.co.id

Jambi Denpasar
Jln. GR. Djamin Datuk Bagindo No. 56A Kantor Perwakilan (KP) BEI Denpasar
Jambi, 36142 Jl. P.B. Sudirman 10 X Kav. 2
Telp. (0741) 7555 699 Denpasar - Bali
E-Mail: mimi.phillip@yahoo.com Telp. (0361) 255 900
E-Mail: phillipdps@gmail.com

Bandar Lampung Palembang

Jl. Pangeran Diponegoro 36A - Bandar Lampung, 35214 Kantor Perwakilan (KP) BEI Palembang
Telp. (0721) 474 234; Fax. (0721) 474 108 Jalan Angkatan 45 No.13 - 14 – Palembang, 30137
E-Mail: kk_lampung@yahoo.com Telp. (0711) 564 092 60
E-Mail: peni@phillip.co.id

Manado Medan
Kantor Perwakilan (KP) BEI Manado – Ruko Mega Style, Blok 1C No. 9, Kompleks Multatuli Indah
Kompleks Mega Mas, Jalan Pierre Tendean Boulevard – Manado, 95000 Jl. Multatuli Blok CC No. 5 & 6, Medan 20151
Telp. (0431) 882 0390 Telp. (061) 457 4033, 457 4055
E-Mail: chlief@phillip.co.id E-Mail: adminmedan@phillip.co.id

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 SEMEN INDONESIA (PERSERO) UPDATE REPORT

Jayapura Banjarmasin
Kantor Perwakilan (KP) BEI Jayapura - Komp. Ruko Pasifik Permai Blok. Jl. A. Yani Km. 5,5 No. 2A
H-19, Jayapura 99112, Papua Banjarmasin 70249
Telp. (0967) 532 414 Telp. (0511) 6744 204
E-Mail: fitria.novita@phillip.co.id E-Mail: yunisasmita@phillip.co.id

Ambon
Kantor Perwakilan (KP)- BEI Ambon
Jln. Philip Latumahina, No. 16, Ruko C.
Kel. Honipopu, Kec. Sirimau, Ambon 97115
Telp. (0911) 382 3336
E-Mail: rahma@phillip.co.id

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