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Market Data Summary* Banks in coverage further narrowed the rate of net income decline in 2M21,
helped by opex savings and low cost of fund. Some of major banks’ CoC in 2M21
2021F 2022F
may appear running below FY21 guidance, but their CoC will trend up in coming
months. YTD loan growth is stronger among banks with higher micro loan mix,
P/E (x) 17.1 14.6
but remains muted among banks with higher consumer loan mix in 2M21. Stay
P/BV (x) 2.1 2.0
OW.
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.1 12.1
Div. Yield (%) 2.2 2.8 Average bank-only net income declined by 10.6% YoY in 2M21. Big-3 SOE
Net Gearing (%) 22.9 19.6 banks narrowed its net income decline from 25.1% YoY in 1M21 to 22.7% YoY in
ROE (%) 12.8 14.0 2M21, helped by slower provision expenses growth in 2M21 than in 1M21.
EPS Growth (%) 39.4 18.4 Meanwhile, BCA boosted its net income growth from 0.3% YoY in 1M21 to 17.8%
EBITDA Growth (%) 14.3 9.2 YoY in 2M21 through cost savings. BDMN and PNBN saw growth reversal as they
Earnings Yield (%) 5.8 6.9 booked >20% net income decline in 2M21 after positive/flat trends in 1M21.
BDMN suffered from non-interest income reduction, while PNBN from higher
* Aggregate of Error! Not a valid link. companies in provision expenses. BBTN and BNLI stood out in terms of net income growth in
MS research universe, representing Error! Not a valid
2M21; BBTN’s strong net income growth was driven by continued interest
link.of JCI’s market capitalization
expense savings, while BNLI benefitted from the integration with Bangkok Bank
Indonesia.
Average PPOP grew by 7.5% YoY in 2M21. In absolute terms, BBRI and BBCA
booked the strongest PPOP growth in 2M21 as they offset income pressures with
material cost savings. Among the small banks, BBTN and BNGA delivered the
strongest PPOP growth (in absolute terms) in 2M21. BBTN continued to benefit
from declining cost of fund, while BNGA through a combination of stronger net
interest income and opex savings.
Average loan growth 0.2% YoY, but down 0.9% YTD in 2M21. On YoY basis,
only BBRI, BBNI, BBTN, BJBR, and BTPS managed to grow its loan book in 2M21.
On YTD basis, only BBRI and BTPS managed to grow their loan books in 2M21.
Other banks still struggled to grow their loan books on YTD basis in 2M21, with
the largest loan contraction in % terms seen at BDMN in 2M21.
Average deposit growth 11.1% YoY, but down 1.6% YTD in 2M21. On YoY basis, all banks in our coverage except
BNGA still managed to grow their deposit base in 2M21 by 4.1%-27.8% YoY. On YTD basis, 6 banks managed to grow their
deposit base by 0.4%-3.8% in 2M21, vs. only 4 banks managed to grow their deposit base in 1M21. As a result, average
LDR mildly decreased to 82.7% in 2M21.
NIM picked up to 5.11% in 2M21, with BBTN, BBRI, BBNI, and BJBR showing monthly NIM improvement in 2M21.
Meanwhile, other banks still saw NIM reduction given lower loan balances on YoY basis and lower asset yield.
Provisioning expenses grew 44.6% YoY, with strongest growth rates coming from BBNI, BNGA, and PNBN in 2M21. In
contrast, BDMN, BNLI, and BJBR saw lower provision charges in 2M21. Average CoC at 2.5% in 2M21, with BBCA’s,
BBNI’s, and BBTN’s CoC running below their FY21 CoC guidance. Though, we expect more provisioning by these banks
from Mar-21 onwards in anticipation of the end of the first round of Covid-19 restructuring period in 1Q21-end.
Gross loans 753,107 886,199 563,593 545,857 105,264 112,943 259,229 88,192 116,325 169,256 9,649
Total deposits 921,882 995,567 839,352 603,700 123,553 133,745 284,777 101,484 148,118 201,113 10,151
Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Research
Results Comment In-line In-line In-line In-line Below Below In-line In-line Above Above In-line In-line
Source: Bloomberg (for consensus estimates) Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Research
BANK VALUATION
Target Net Profit EPS Gr PER P/BV Yield ROE NPL
JCI Price* (Rpbn) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%)
Rating Price
Code (Rp)
(Rp) 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
BBCA Buy 30,825 40,000 33,357 37,145 20.8 11.4 22.8 20.5 3.7 3.3 1.6 2.0 17.1 17.2 1.7 1.8
BBNI Buy 5,825 8,000 14,210 16,049 255.0 12.9 7.6 6.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 3.9 12.4 12.6 3.8 3.9
BBRI Buy 4,200 5,500 32,751 39,703 71.2 21.2 15.8 13.0 2.3 2.1 1.1 3.2 15.5 16.8 2.8 2.9
BBTN Buy 1,735 2,500 2,515 3,011 65.8 19.7 7.3 6.1 0.8 0.8 1.4 2.1 12.2 13.0 3.8 3.6
We hosted a webinar with Batang Industrial Estate (KITB), which included a virtual site visit. KITB is an SOE-owned
industrial estate in Central Java and is seeing considerable government support. On PTPP, we see a potential new
contracts booking of Rp570bn in 2021 to further develop the industrial area and residentials nearby.
Overview and current state. At its completion, Grand Batang City will be a 4,500ha integrated industrial park located in
Batang, Central Java that is built on SOE plantation company PTPN’s land. The first cluster, so called the “Creation” cluster,
will focus on manufacturing and KITB marks its first phase spanning 450ha. KITB is currently in the cut-and-fill stage which
is expected to complete in 2Q20 with all infrastructure complete by end-2021. For access, it is supported by direct
connection to the Trans Java toll road, direct connection to existing double track railway, and is one hour away from
Tanjung Mas and Ahmad Yani International Airport in Semarang, while plans are under way to build KITB’s own sea port
in due course. Notably, KITB’s business structure differs from typical industrial estate companies in that it does not have
the burden of land acquisition, while its construction outlays fall under the government’s infrastructure budget and can
be reimbursed.
Sales mechanism and pricing. KITB offers tenancies in two forms - leasehold right-to-build titles (HGB on HPL) spanning
80 years and land lease on an annual basis. For the former format, ASP ranges between IDR 750k-900k psm, and the
leasehold title is likely a means to get around the restriction banning SOEs from selling assets, and while the 80-year
limitation can tacitly be extended, management sees the tenor as sufficiently length to be a non-issue for potential
tenants. The government has also provided further sweeteners in the form of a 5-year grace period after paying a 20%
down payment upon agreement signing. Meanwhile, the latter format is priced at IDR 55k psm annually with 3.2% annual
rental rate increase. According to management, the industrial park has attracted 51 potential tenants spanning 841ha in
inquiries. Thus far, three foreign entities have committed to setting up bases in KITB – LG Chem, KCC Glass and Wavin
totaling 160ha. KCC Glass in particular is set to finalise its CSPA this month and is expected to break ground in May-21
with its plant completed by 2023. Management is upbeat that the 450ha slated for Phase 1 will be used up in three years.
Positive or negative effect on Industrial effect at Bekasi? Surprisingly, while low labour costs is a key appeal of the
Central Java region at the cost of being further away from larger markets and a lack of supporting production supply
chain, KITB is choosing to target primarily the automotive, ICT and chemical industries, which are predominantly capital-
intensive, and which are well-established in the Cikarang-Karawang industrial corridor in West Java. At this stage, it
remains to be seen KITB’s abilities to grab the share of the pie from said corridor, which is where most listed industrial
estate companies operate, however, threats arise from its considerable government support, from its cost structure being
supported by the state budget, and substantial 5-year grace period which would otherwise be a massive burden on
industrial estate developers’ cash flows sans government support.
Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP.IJ) as the lead contractor of KITB. The first development phase of 450ha industrial
will start the construction works in 2021. The company has booked Rp300bn new contracts, mostly for land-related
works, while potentially booking an additional Rp570bn of new contracts in 2021 to further develop industrial area and
residential nearby. KIK Batang is one of the national strategic projects, thus, we expect an acceleration in construction
works. The management guided net profit margin for KIK Batang project at ca.10%, translating to potential net profit of
approx. Rp100bn in the next two years (MANSEK net profit 2021: Rp220bn, 2022: Rp494bn).
Source: Company
Source: Company
CORPORATE
Adhi Karya: 4Q20 Results - Margin Expansion, Core Profit Above Expectations (ADHI; Rp1,110; Neutral; TP: Rp1,350)
FY20 earnings came below MANSEK/consensus at 54%/49% due to non-core expenses, while core profit reached
Rp65.4tn (-91% YoY)—above. 4Q20 GPM jumped significantly across business segments and was notably the highest
since IPO at 28.0%. Gearing closed at 175%, while the OCF was positive at Rp1.4tn. We have a Neutral rating.
4Q20 earnings came below expectations. 4Q20 net profit came at Rp8.6bn (+108.9% QoQ; -97.3% YoY), with FY20 net
profit at Rp24.0bn (-96.4% YoY), accounting for 54%/49% to MANSEK/consensus. ADHI booked Rp59.2bn of non-core
expenses; thus, the FY20 core profit stood at Rp65.4bn (-91.1% YoY), above MANSEK estimate at Rp30.7bn.
4Q20 revenues came at Rp2.4tn (-19.1% QoQ; -62.8% YoY), with 12M20 revenues of Rp10.8tn (-29.3% YoY), forming
94%/83% of MANSEK/consensus estimates—below. 4Q20 construction revenues (64% of revenues) dropped by 41.6%
QoQ/79.5% YoY, while investment projects (27% of revenues) accelerated by 164.6% QoQ/27.5% YoY, as we suspect they
were driven by the Solo-Yogyakarta Jogja Toll Road, of which ADHI owns 24%, with a total investment worth Rp26.6tn.
GPM significantly improved in 4Q20. Despite a considerably soft 4Q20 revenues booking, 4Q20 GPM after JV income
rose to 28.0% (3Q20: 13.4%; 4Q19: 16.9%), marking the highest GPM since IPO, with significant improvement across
business segments. 4Q20 construction service’s GPM accelerated by 935 bps QoQ/355 bps YoY to 17.2%, while
investment projects’ GPM reached 37.1% (3Q20: 14.7%; 4Q19: 9.6%).
Rising inventory and gearing, positive OCF. Dec-2020’s inventory reached Rp6.3tn (Dec-2019: Rp4.8tn), with notable
increase in available land and building for sale at Rp2.1tn (Dec-2019: Rp54.7bn). Dec-2020’s gearing accelerated to 175%
(Sep-2020: 174%; Dec-2019: 154%). Closing the year, ADHI booked a positive OCF of Rp1.4tn, with sizable payment from
the Greater Jakarta LRT and Aceh–Sigli Toll Roads.
We have a Neutral rating. ADHI booked FY20 new contracts of Rp19.7tn (+32% YoY), of which 44% was from the
government and 40% from internal investment. The company targets new contracts to grow by 15% YoY in 2021. We
have a Neutral rating. Key risks to our call: prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, which would slow down the construction
works and lower the new contracts achievement.
Gross margin (%) 17.5 17.5 28.0 13.4 16.9 13.5 13.3
Operating margin (%) 10.8 11.6 21.1 7.2 11.5 7.4 7.7
Pretax margin (%) 3.3 7.7 6.4 2.8 9.1 3.4 2.7
Net margin (%) 0.2 4.3 0.4 0.1 4.9 0.4 0.4
Source: Bloomberg, Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates
HRUM’s 2020 net profit was above forecast, mainly due to USD 46mn investment gains in Nickel Mines Limited. We see
HRUM’s aggressive acquisition of nickel assets as a good decision, as it can finally monetize its huge cash balance for
more productive assets.
Saved by investment gain from its stake in Nickel Mines. Harum Energy (HRUM) reported a strong 4Q20 net profit of
USD 33.3mn (+1254% YoY/+774% QoQ), mainly driven by investment gain from its stake in Nickel Mines Limited, at
around USD 34mn, bringing the 2020 net profit to USD 59.0mn (+219% YoY), which was above our/consensus estimates
at 206%/159%. Stripping out the investment gains, we estimate HRUM’s coal business actually reported a core net loss of
-USD 3.4mn in 4Q20, driven by higher operating expense, which led to -68% YoY lower core profit of USD 6.5mn in 2020.
Revenue in 2020 declined to USD 158mn (-40% YoY) due to lower ASP of USD 52.4/ton (-14% YoY) and lower sales
volume of 2.8mn tons (-32% YoY). Moreover, the higher-than-expected opex dragged operating margin to 3.9% from
9.1% in 2019, despite lower cash cost ex-royalty (-15% YoY), following lower fuel cost. With benchmark Newcastle coal
price hovering above USD 90/ton, we believe we should expect earnings recovery from HRUM’s coal business this year as
a result of higher sales volume and ASP.
Key points to highlight in 4Q20: 1) 4Q20 ASP rebounded to USD 47.1/ton (-19% YoY/+6% QoQ), in-line with better
Newcastle coal benchmark due to its large exposure to the spot market. 2) Sales volume dropped to 0.4mn tons (-60%
YoY/-43% QoQ) due to lower production (-40% YoY/flat YoY). 3) We estimate lower cash cost (ex. royalty) at USD 33.0/ton
(-14% YoY/-2% QoQ), mainly due to a lower SR of 7.6x vs. 9.7x in 4Q19.
Venturing into nickel sector. HRUM has been aggressively expanding into the nickel sector. It acquired a 4.88% stake
investment for AUD 76.3mn in Australia-listed Company Nickel Mines in 2020, and a 51% stake in PT Position for USD
80.3mn in 2021. We believe HRUM still has ample cash balance after recent acquisition given its USD 226.5mn cash
balance in Dec-2020, which will give it more room and flexibility to expand its nickel business as part of diversifying away
from coal. We have yet to factor in HRUM’s venture into nickel, and our number is still based on its coal-related business.
We have a Neutral call on HRUM at the moment, with Rp3,000/share TP.
Coal sales (Mt) 0.4 1.0 -60% 0.7 -43% 2.8 4.1 -32%
ASP (US$/t) 47.1 58.1 -19% 44.4 6% 52.4 60.6 -14%
Cash cost - Ex Royalty (US$/t) 33.0 38.6 -14% 33.5 -2% 33.8 39.6 -15%
SR (x) 7.6 9.7 -22% 9.0 -16% 8.9 10.8 -17%
Source: Company
Jaya Real Property 4Q20: Weak Margins, Helped by Divestment Gains (JRPT; Rp590; Buy; TP: Rp670)
JRPT booked weak 4Q20, although FY20 revenue was per expectations. Weak margins eroded earnings, however bottom
line was saved by divestment gains over an associate selling its stake in a JORR section. We have a Buy on JRPT.
4Q20 revenue in-line above our forecast, higher than street’s. JRPT booked IDR 403bn in 4Q20 revenue, -47% qoq
and -40% yoy. This weakness was likely due to handover schedules as per its 2018 presales, which fell -19% yoy. FY20
revenue of IDR 2.2tn fell -10% yoy, which was in-line with our forecast but significantly higher than consensus’ at
95%/190% achievement.
Weaker margins due to product mix. 4Q20 gross margin was just 47% and operating margin 25%, significantly below
the company’s norm. 4Q18 saw launches at Discovery Altezza and Fiera Grand Batavia projects, which are lower priced.
This dragged FY20 GM to just 53%, -5 ppt yoy, and OM to 38%, -4 ppt yoy. EBIT was below expectations at 79%/84% of
our/consensus’ expectations.
Boost from divestment gains. In 4Q20, PT Jakarta Marga Raya, 35% owner of the Jakarta Outer Ring Road W2N section
(JSMR:IJ owns the balance 65%), from Kebon Jeruk to Ulujami, sold all its stake to JSMR. Jakarta Marga Raya is in turn 49%
owned by PT Jaya Sarana Pratama, a subsidiary of JRPT’s in which it has 60% stake. JRPT booked IDR 225bn in divestment
gains from Jakarta Marga Raya selling its stake in the JORR W2N toll road.
Bottom line slightly below our target, in-line with street. Due to the one-off divestment gain, JRPT’s PATMI recovere
go IDR 925bn, -9% yoy, broadly in-line with consensus’ full-year forecast, but slightly below ours at 93% achievement.
Revenue breakdown
Revenue 755 403 669 -47% -40% 2,423 2,185 -10%
Land Plots 339 140 304 -59% -54% 1,057 974 -8%
Landed Units 199 82 138 -59% -40% 468 524 12%
Condominium 142 85 98 -40% -14% 395 332 -16%
Inv prop 43 52 84 23% -38% 358 206 -42%
Estate management 32 44 46 37% -4% 145 149 2%
CORPORATE
Testing: Daily specimens tested went up to 78k, daily people tested also went up to 50k yesterday.
Infection rate: Daily national infection rate reached 9% yesterday (3DMA 14%/7DMA 12%). Jakarta daily infection rate
reached to 5% (3DMA 15%/7DMA 10%).
Epicenters: West Java (+964), Central Java (+651), Jakarta (+487). We see upward trend of cases in Bali, South Kalimantan,
Riau, South Sumatera.
Vaccine progress: Total vaccine administered yesterday went down to 307k doses (7DMA 303k). 8.98mn people (22.24%
phase 1 target) have received first shot, 4.38mn people (10.85% phase 1 target) have received second shot. Deceleration
in vaccination pace was due to delayed supply issue following India’s vaccine embargo.
From the news: Update on Private Vaccination (Vaksin Gotong Royong). Ongoing negotiation remains in the supply
commitment topic and hasn’t reached pricing discussion. Biofarma will add Cansino for the vaccine selection, on top of
the confirmed Sinopharm and Moderna vaccines. Initially the vaccination is expected to begin in Apr-21.
JCI 6,002.8 +0.5 +0.4 Rp/US$ 14,464 -0.15 -2.9 Crude Oil, WTI (US$/bl) 59.33 +1.2 +22.3
Dow Jones 33,430.2 -0.3 +9.2 US$/EUR 1.188 +0.53 +2.9 Copper (US$/mt) 9,047 +2.9 +16.5
Nikkei 29,696.6 -1.3 +8.2 YEN/US$ 109.75 -0.39 -5.9 Nickel (US$/mt) 16,740 +3.2 +0.8
Hang Seng 28,938.7 +2.0 +6.3 SGD/US$ 1.339 -0.23 -1.3 Gold (US$/oz) 1,743 +0.9 -8.2
STI 3,207.6 -0.1 +12.8 Tin 3-month (US$/mt) 25,815 +2.8 +27.0
Ishares indo 21.9 +0.7 -6.4 CPO futures (Ringgit/ton) 3,802 +1.7 +5.6
Coal (US$/ton) 94.9 -1.7 +17.8
Foreign YTD
YTD Gov. Bond Chg
Fund Flows Last Chg Last Chg Rubber forward (US¢/kg) 223.1 -0.4 +0.3
Chg Yield (bps)
(US$mn) (bps)
Soybean oil
Equity Flow -6.8 +717 5Yr 5.77 -5 +56 53.92 +2.1 +24.4
(US$/100gallons)
Bonds Flow +70.3 -1,473 10Yr 6.58 -6 +69 Baltic Dry Index 2,072.0 +1.0 +51.7
Equity Valuation
Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield
Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
MANSEK universe 6,003 6,850 14.1 4,167,551 242,560 287,174 17.1 14.6 2.1 2.0 13.1 12.1 39.4% 18.4% 2.2% 2.8%
Banking 1,647,697 100,141 117,893 16.4 14.2 2.1 2.0 N.A. N.A. 54.2% 17.8% 1.4% 2.5%
BBCA Buy 30,825 40,000 29.8 759,991 33,357 37,145 22.8 20.5 3.7 3.3 N.A. N.A. 20.8% 11.4% 1.6% 2.0%
BBNI Buy 5,825 8,000 37.3 108,628 14,210 16,049 7.6 6.8 0.9 0.8 N.A. N.A. 255.0% 12.9% 0.9% 3.9%
BBRI Buy 4,200 5,500 31.0 517,854 32,751 39,703 15.8 13.0 2.3 2.1 N.A. N.A. 71.2% 21.2% 1.1% 3.2%
BBTN Buy 1,735 2,500 44.1 18,374 2,515 3,011 7.3 6.1 0.8 0.8 N.A. N.A. 65.8% 19.7% 1.4% 2.1%
BDMN Buy 2,830 4,100 44.9 27,659 3,538 4,034 7.7 6.7 0.6 0.6 N.A. N.A. 71.5% 14.0% 2.6% 4.5%
BJBR Neutral 1,580 1,700 7.6 15,545 1,744 2,023 8.9 7.7 1.3 1.2 N.A. N.A. 11.3% 16.0% 6.2% 6.3%
BJTM Buy 815 900 10.4 12,227 1,557 1,810 7.9 6.8 1.2 1.1 N.A. N.A. 10.0% 16.3% 6.2% 6.4%
BNGA Buy 1,080 1,300 20.4 27,142 3,309 4,229 8.2 6.4 0.6 0.6 N.A. N.A. 44.6% 27.8% 3.4% 4.9%
BNLI Neutral 2,040 2,900 42.2 93,831 1,170 2,366 56.7 43.5 2.6 3.3 N.A. N.A. 10.5% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0%
PNBN Buy 1,065 1,400 31.5 25,647 3,405 3,829 7.5 6.7 0.7 0.6 N.A. N.A. 12.9% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0%
BTPS Buy 3,470 4,500 29.7 26,732 1,597 2,286 16.7 11.7 3.7 2.9 N.A. N.A. 87.3% 43.1% 0.8% 1.5%
BFIN Buy 675 475 (29.6) 10,101 841 1,196 12.0 8.4 1.4 1.2 N.A. N.A. 7.7% 42.3% 2.3% 2.9%
AMOR Buy 3,570 4,400 23.2 3,967 107 188 37.0 21.1 13.6 13.2 28.6 16.2 28.1% 75.1% 2.6% 4.5%
Construction & materials 185,471 6,093 9,792 30.4 18.9 1.4 1.3 12.4 10.9 N/M 60.7% 0.8% 1.2%
INTP Buy 12,175 14,500 19.1 44,819 2,003 2,586 22.4 17.3 1.8 1.6 10.5 8.4 19.8% 29.1% 1.3% 1.6%
SMGR Buy 10,375 11,020 6.2 61,540 2,825 3,387 21.8 18.2 1.7 1.6 9.2 8.3 12.1% 19.9% 1.6% 1.6%
ADHI Neutral 1,110 1,350 21.6 3,953 261 442 15.2 8.9 0.7 0.6 8.7 7.5 491.0% 69.6% 0.2% 1.3%
PTPP Neutral 1,335 1,600 19.9 8,277 220 494 37.6 16.7 0.7 0.7 9.4 8.1 87.6% 124.8% 0.4% 0.8%
WIKA Neutral 1,475 1,800 22.0 13,216 513 743 25.8 17.8 0.9 0.9 9.0 7.8 213.6% 44.8% 0.8% 1.1%
WSKT Neutral 1,100 1,410 28.2 14,719 -1,957 -1,277 -7.5 -11.5 2.0 2.3 28.2 23.6 44.5% 34.7% -2.7% -1.7%
WTON Buy 308 400 29.9 2,684 201 309 13.3 8.7 0.7 0.7 5.8 4.8 57.2% 53.3% 1.4% 2.3%
WSBP Neutral 200 240 20.0 5,272 71 227 74.5 23.2 0.8 0.8 15.9 12.3 N/M 220.6% 0.0% 0.7%
JSMR Buy 4,270 7,040 64.9 30,991 1,957 2,882 15.8 10.8 1.5 1.4 11.9 11.0 251.0% 47.3% 0.4% 1.3%
Consumer staples 808,519 41,642 48,051 19.4 16.8 3.9 3.6 12.3 11.0 0.4% 15.4% 3.6% 3.7%
ICBP Buy 8,825 12,050 36.5 102,916 6,319 6,940 16.3 14.8 3.2 2.9 9.7 9.0 5.7% 9.8% 2.9% 3.1%
INDF Buy 6,750 9,950 47.4 59,265 6,307 6,849 9.4 8.7 1.3 1.2 5.9 5.6 6.5% 8.6% 5.0% 5.3%
MYOR Buy 2,530 2,600 2.8 56,568 2,190 2,466 25.8 22.9 4.5 4.0 14.8 13.2 -9.2% 12.6% 1.6% 1.5%
UNVR Buy 6,475 8,550 32.0 247,021 7,382 8,419 33.5 29.3 49.0 41.5 23.5 21.3 3.1% 14.0% 2.9% 3.0%
GGRM Buy 36,275 46,550 28.3 69,796 6,337 7,797 11.0 9.0 1.1 1.1 7.4 6.5 -17.1% 23.0% 5.5% 5.5%
HMSP Buy 1,350 1,750 29.6 157,029 8,189 9,964 19.2 15.8 5.3 5.0 13.2 11.1 -4.6% 21.7% 5.5% 5.3%
KLBF Buy 1,555 1,900 22.2 72,891 2,842 3,180 25.6 22.9 3.9 3.5 17.2 15.6 4.1% 11.9% 1.9% 2.2%
SIDO Buy 790 980 24.1 23,700 1,011 1,136 23.4 20.9 7.0 6.8 17.5 15.9 10.9% 12.4% 3.7% 4.2%
MLBI Buy 9,175 13,250 44.4 19,332 1,063 1,299 18.2 14.9 14.8 12.6 11.7 9.8 656.9% 22.1% 0.7% 5.5%
Healthcare 58,860 1,521 1,593 38.7 36.9 4.1 3.8 16.6 15.3 33.8% 4.7% 0.7% 0.9%
MIKA Neutral 2,550 3,200 25.5 36,328 1,099 1,016 33.0 35.7 6.4 5.8 22.4 24.7 30.6% -7.6% 0.9% 1.2%
SILO Buy 5,450 5,950 9.2 8,856 22 55 398.7 160.3 1.5 1.5 9.5 7.7 N/M 148.7% 0.0% 0.0%
HEAL Buy 4,600 4,000 (13.0) 13,676 400 522 34.2 26.2 4.9 4.2 13.9 11.3 17.8% 30.6% 0.3% 0.4%
Consumer discretionary 24,927 29,741 12.5 10.5 1.4 1.3 8.3 7.4 20.7% 19.3% 3.0% 3.3%
ACES Buy 1,585 2,200 38.8 27,183 991 1,153 27.4 23.6 4.6 4.0 18.5 16.2 23.8% 16.4% 0.9% 1.1%
LPPF Buy 1,425 2,000 40.4 3,742 224 839 16.7 4.5 4.6 2.3 4.1 1.6 N/M 274.6% 0.0% 0.0%
MAPA Buy 2,100 4,000 90.5 5,986 314 475 19.0 12.6 1.8 1.6 7.6 5.0 N/M 51.1% 0.0% 0.0%
MAPI Buy 760 1,223 60.9 12,616 550 976 22.9 12.9 2.0 1.8 6.2 4.6 N/M 77.3% 0.0% 0.0%
RALS Buy 775 1,150 48.4 5,499 242 404 22.7 13.6 1.4 1.3 10.0 5.7 N/M 66.9% 0.0% 2.3%
ERAA Buy 505 3,500 593.1 1,611 771 947 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.2 2.9 2.8 53.3% 22.9% 9.6% 11.8%
ASII Buy 5,350 6,300 17.8 216,587 18,098 20,591 12.0 10.5 1.3 1.2 8.8 8.2 1.9% 13.8% 3.7% 3.8%
SCMA Neutral 1,720 2,000 16.3 23,916 1,341 1,515 17.8 15.8 3.9 3.4 12.1 10.6 12.8% 13.0% 2.2% 2.9%
MNCN Buy 940 2,000 112.8 11,637 2,266 2,639 5.1 4.4 0.8 0.7 3.7 3.1 20.3% 16.5% 2.9% 6.8%
PZZA Buy 790 750 (5.1) 2,387 130 202 18.4 11.8 1.7 1.6 7.0 5.5 N/M 55.5% 0.0% 2.7%
Commodities 350,960 23,973 28,069 14.6 12.5 1.4 1.3 5.6 5.0 44.0% 17.1% 2.5% 2.9%
UNTR Buy 22,325 31,700 42.0 83,275 10,603 10,822 7.9 7.7 1.2 1.1 3.4 3.0 47.8% 2.1% 3.8% 3.9%
ADRO* Buy 1,210 1,750 44.6 38,703 256 282 10.7 9.7 0.7 0.7 3.7 3.2 24.0% 10.1% 3.2% 3.5%
HRUM* Neutral 5,350 3,000 (43.9) 13,732 10 11 99.8 85.2 3.0 2.9 33.8 28.5 -66.1% 17.1% 0.6% 0.6%
INDY* Neutral 1,450 910 (37.2) 7,555 6 82 83.5 6.5 0.6 0.5 1.7 1.6 286.9% 1182.5% 0.3% 3.8%
Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield
Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
ITMG* Neutral 12,575 15,000 19.3 13,789 93 128 10.5 7.6 1.1 1.1 4.0 3.1 61.3% 38.1% 8.1% 11.2%
PTBA Buy 2,520 3,100 23.0 29,037 2,917 3,429 9.9 8.4 1.6 1.5 6.4 5.2 29.9% 17.5% 7.5% 8.9%
ANTM Buy 2,330 3,300 41.6 55,992 2,264 2,270 24.7 24.7 2.4 2.2 13.5 12.9 97.0% 0.3% 1.4% 1.4%
INCO* Neutral 4,660 4,000 (14.2) 46,303 106 146 30.7 22.4 1.5 1.4 9.6 7.8 3.7% 37.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TINS Sell 1,610 1,400 (13.0) 11,991 651 706 18.4 17.0 2.1 1.9 10.4 9.8 N/M 8.5% 1.9% 2.1%
MDKA* Buy 2,310 3,300 42.9 50,583 60 115 59.3 30.9 5.8 4.9 17.5 11.9 1.2% 91.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Property & Industrial Estate 126,099 8,875 9,852 14.2 12.8 0.9 0.9 10.9 10.4 54.6% 11.0% 1.4% 1.4%
ASRI Buy 216 210 (2.8) 4,244 683 821 6.2 5.2 0.4 0.4 8.0 7.3 1534.2% 20.3% 0.9% 0.9%
BSDE Buy 1,180 1,160 (1.7) 24,982 2,050 2,103 12.2 11.9 0.7 0.7 11.9 12.3 46.5% 2.6% 0.4% -0.8%
CTRA Buy 1,155 1,120 (3.0) 21,437 1,094 1,024 19.6 20.9 1.3 1.2 12.4 12.5 31.5% -6.4% 0.6% 0.8%
JRPT Buy 590 670 13.6 8,113 1,065 1,191 7.6 6.8 0.9 0.8 6.5 5.8 6.7% 11.8% 0.1% 4.1%
PWON Buy 545 770 41.3 26,247 1,879 2,361 14.0 11.1 1.5 1.4 10.0 8.3 90.7% 25.6% 1.1% 1.1%
SMRA Buy 970 960 (1.0) 13,994 604 682 23.2 20.5 1.7 1.6 11.7 11.3 43.8% 12.9% 0.5% 0.5%
LPKR Neutral 202 200 (1.0) 14,260 391 345 36.4 41.3 0.5 0.5 12.3 13.4 429.7% -11.8% 0.5% 0.5%
DMAS Buy 236 300 27.1 11,375 988 1,158 11.5 9.8 2.0 1.9 11.1 9.2 11.7% 17.2% 8.9% 8.9%
BEST Neutral 150 130 (13.3) 1,447 122 167 11.9 8.7 0.3 0.3 9.6 8.5 14.2% 37.4% 0.6% 1.0%
Telecom 503,156 30,737 31,524 16.4 16.0 3.0 2.8 6.1 5.7 32.1% 2.6% 3.5% 3.5%
EXCL Buy 2,160 3,300 52.8 23,003 1,596 2,066 14.4 11.1 1.1 1.0 4.0 3.7 329.5% 29.5% 0.9% 1.5%
TLKM Buy 3,370 4,200 24.6 333,840 20,506 23,496 16.3 14.2 3.1 2.9 5.8 5.4 7.8% 14.6% 4.5% 4.6%
ISAT Buy 6,900 7,500 8.7 37,494 3,372 439 11.1 85.4 2.5 2.4 4.9 4.6 N/M -87.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LINK Buy 3,260 4,500 38.0 9,250 925 942 10.4 10.2 1.6 1.5 4.9 4.7 0.1% 1.8% 3.0% 3.1%
TBIG Buy 2,050 2,500 22.0 44,344 1,467 1,512 30.2 29.3 6.9 6.1 14.0 13.3 29.9% 3.1% 1.4% 1.4%
TOWR Buy 1,100 1,500 36.4 55,226 2,872 3,068 19.2 18.0 4.7 4.1 10.4 9.8 12.5% 6.8% 2.2% 2.2%
Transportation 3,365 251 303 13.4 11.1 0.6 0.6 5.4 5.4 N/M 20.6% 1.9% 2.2%
BIRD Buy 1,345 1,700 26.4 3,365 251 303 13.4 11.1 0.6 0.6 5.4 5.4 N/M 20.6% 1.9% 2.2%
Poultry 140,867 5,574 6,218 25.3 22.7 3.5 3.2 14.1 13.0 86.5% 11.6% 0.9% 1.7%
CPIN Buy 7,050 6,950 (1.4) 115,606 3,728 4,282 31.0 27.0 4.6 4.2 19.4 17.1 34.3% 14.9% 1.0% 1.6%
JPFA Buy 2,010 1,700 (15.4) 23,570 1,696 1,714 13.9 13.8 1.9 1.7 7.8 7.8 392.5% 1.1% 0.4% 2.2%
MAIN Buy 755 700 (7.3) 1,690 150 222 11.3 7.6 0.8 0.7 5.2 4.4 N/M 48.1% 0.0% 2.0%
Oil and Gas 31,393 -1,175 4,138 -26.7 7.6 1.0 0.9 6.1 5.2 -65.2% N/M 0.0% 4.0%
PGAS* Buy 1,295 2,200 69.9 31,393 -83 292 -26.7 7.6 1.0 0.9 6.1 5.2 65.5% N/M 0.0% 4.0%
Note:
- *) net profit in USD mn
- U/R means Under Review
- n/a means Not Available
- N/M means Not Meaningful
- N.A means Not Applicable
RESEARCH
Adrian Joezer Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Consumer adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9415
Tjandra Lienandjaja Deputy Head of Equity Research tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9617
Ariyanto Kurniawan Automotive, Coal, Metal Mining, Chemical ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9682
Kresna Hutabarat Banking, Telecom kresna.hutabarat@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9542
Robin Sutanto Property, Building Material robin.sutanto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9572
Edbert Surya Construction, Transportation edbert.surya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9623
Silvony Gathrie Banking silvony.gathrie@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9544
Inggrid Gondoprastowo, CFA Healthcare, Consumer, Retail inggridgondoprastowo@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9450
Riyanto Hartanto Poultry, Research Assistant riyanto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9488
Henry Tedja Media, Oil & Gas henry.tedja@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9434
Wesley Louis Alianto Research Assistant wesley.alianto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9510
Leo Putera Rinaldy Chief Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9406
Imanuel Reinaldo Economist imanuel.reinaldo@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9651
INSTITUTIONAL SALES
Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Feliciana Ramonda Institutional Sales feliciana.ramonda@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Henry Pranoto Institutional Sales henry.pranoto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Kevin Giarto Institutional Sales kevin.giarto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi Institutional Sales sharon.tjahjadi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Talitha Medha Anindya Institutional Sales talitha.anindya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Angga Aditya Assaf Institutional Sales angga.assaf@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Ilona Carissa Institutional Sales Ilona.simanungkalit@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Michael Taarea Equity Dealing michael.taarea@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
RETAIL SALES
Andreas M. Gunawidjaja Head Retail Equities andreas@mandirisek.co.id 6221 5296 9693
Boy Triyono Jakarta boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id 6221 5296 5678
Care Center Online Jakarta care_center@mandirisek.co.id 14032
Ruwie Medan ruwie@mandirisek.co.id 6261 8050 1825
Linawati Surabaya linawati@mandirisek.co.id 6231 535 7218
Maulidia Osviana Lampung maulidia.osviana@mandirisek.co.id 62721 476 135
Aidil Idham Palembang aidil.idham@mandirisek.co.id 62711 319 900
Yudhistira Putra Pradana Bandung yudhistira.pradana@mandirisek.co.id 6222 426 5088
Yuri Ariadi Pontianak yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id 62561 582 293
Yogiswara Perdana Yogyakarta yogiswara.perdana@mandirisek.co.id 62274 560 596
Achmad Rasyid Bali achmad.rasyid@mandirisek.co.id 62361 475 3066
www.most.co.id care_center@mandirisek.co.id 14032
INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last
published report, are: Buy (15% or higher), Neutral (-15% to15%) and Sell (-15% or lower).
DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and
supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its
judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its
accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein
to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will
seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number
62-21-5263445 or fax 62-21-5275374.
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the
companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be
influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.