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Equity Research INDIA

August 25, 2022


BSE Sensex: 59085
Tata Power Company ADD
ICICI Securities Limited Downgrade from BUY
is the author and
distributor of this report
Analyst meet highlights Rs230
We attended Tata Power Company’s (TPWR) analyst meet during which the company
Company update and highlighted the growth strategy for its several businesses over FY23-FY27. TPWR has a
clear focus toward clean and green growth as evident from the fact that 80% of the
rating revision
estimated Rs1trn capex over FY23-FY27 will be on green businesses. With this, the
company aims to grow its revenue and PAT 3x and 4x from the FY22 levels of Rs426bn
Utilities and Rs23bn respectively, and simultaneously improve shareholder returns. Apart from
the 5-year green business targets to improve its leadership positions (helped by the
Target price: Rs262 receipt of Rs20bn from TPREL stake sale), we expect TPWR to be among the key players
in the T&D space, participating in upcoming discom privatisation as well as transmission
TBCB bids. Debt reduction and elevated coal prices paint a positive picture for CGPL
and coal businesses currently (company may eventually sell off its coal mines). Since
provisioning and write-offs are now complete for both Tata Projects and TPSSL, we
Shareholding pattern believe they should turnaround from Q2FY23E onward. Easing of commodity prices and
Dec Mar Jun
‘21 ‘22 ‘22
domestic contract manufacturing arrangements for TPSSL will also help.
Promoters 46.8 46.9 46.9  Targets 4x growth in PAT by FY27 with much healthier returns profile: Over FY23-
Institutional
investors 26.2 26.7 24.8
FY27, TPWR targets capex of Rs1trn, taking its capital employed from Rs656bn at FY22-
MFs and others 4.5 4.8 3.8 end to >Rs1.6trn by FY27. 80% of the capex is targeted at green businesses including utility-
FI & Banks 0.1 0.1 0.0 scale RE and solar manufacturing, while 17% is intended to be spent in the T&D businesses.
Insurance Co 10.8 10.8 10.7
FIIs 10.8 11.0 10.3 With this, the company aims to increase its revenue and PAT 3x and 4x from FY22 levels of
Others 27.0 26.4 28.3 Rs426bn and Rs23bn respectively. Simultaneously, TPWR is focusing on improving both
Source: NSE RoE and RoCE to >13% and >11% from the current 8.5% and 8.9% respectively. Debt
sustainability will be key to ensure that the company’s growth strategy leads to good returns
Price chart to investors. TPWR’s aim is to keep its debt/equity at <1.5x and debt/EBITDA <3.5x.
 Clear transition towards clean energy; aims to further improve its leadership position
350 in several green businesses: TPWR targets to increase its utility-scale capacity to >20GW
300 by FY27, adding 3GW of capacity annually over the next five years (2GW utility scale and
250 1GW rooftop and C&I). With the company’s green platform, TPREL, now established and
200 cash-rich post the recent investment, we expect its RE bidding success rate to improve. For
(Rs)

150 the solar EPC business, the target is to increase the revenue from Rs60bn p.a. currently to
100 Rs200bn p.a. by FY27 with a market share of 23% (15% in FY22). For solar rooftop, pump
50 and EVC businesses, the aim is to further improve its current market leadership position.
0  TPWR to be a key player in the T&D segment: TPWR targets to expand its distribution
Feb-20

Feb-21

Feb-22
Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22

footprint to 40mn customers by CY27. It will also pursue smart meter opportunities and
distribution services. Company will leverage its turnaround experience in upcoming
privatisation opportunities in states including Jharkhand, MP, Rajasthan, UP, and the UTs
of J&K and Ladakh. It will also be a key participant in the transmission sector (expected bid
pipeline of Rs870bn over the next three years), as it has Tata Projects as its EPC partner
which has strong credentials in executing transmission projects.
 Valuations and outlook: We maintain our SoTP-based target price of Rs262 on TPWR, but
downgrade the stock to ADD (from Buy) due to stock price run-up (12.3% over past 6M).
We believe, the long-term potential of the company's businesses is good, especially its
renewables and distribution businesses, and that the company is the best-placed private
player in the power sector, with businesses across the value chain and backward integration.
Research Analysts: Market Cap Rs733bn/US$9.2bn Year to March FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Reuters/Bloomberg TOPO.BO/TPWR IN Revenue (Rs mn) 329,973 424,353 461,111 507,807
Rahul Modi Shares Outstanding (mn) Net Income (Rs mn)
rahul.modi@icicisecurities.com 3195.3 14,387 21,556 24,221 29,452
+91 22 6807 7373 52-week Range (Rs) 298/124 EPS (Rs) 4.7 6.7 7.6 9.2
Anshuman Ashit Free Float (%) 53.1 % Chg YoY 9.3 49.8 12.4 21.6
anshuman.ashit@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6807 7419 FII (%) 10.3 P/E (x) 51.0 34.0 30.3 24.9
Daily Volume (US$'000) 88046 CEPS (Rs) 13.1 16.5 17.8 20.4
Absolute Return 3m (%) 1.1 EV/E (x) 15.0 16.6 14.6 12.8
Absolute Return 12m (%) 82.4 Dividend Yield 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Sensex Return 3m (%) 10.1 RoCE (%) 7.0 7.8 8.9 9.1
Sensex Return 12m (%) 7.0 RoE (%) 6.9 9.6 9.9 11.0

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report


Tata Power, August 25, 2022 ICICI Securities

Key takeaways from the analyst meet


Table 1: Key business targets for FY27; focus mainly on clean and green growth
Particulars Current position (FY22) Target for FY27
Generation capacity 13.5GW, with 66% thermal 30GW, with 27% thermal
Grid-connected RE 5.5GW development portfolio of pure >20GW development portfolio of assets
capacity solar and wind assets including hybrid, RTC and peak
generation capacity
Utility-scale EPC Revenue of Rs60bn p.a. with a market Revenue of Rs200bn p.a. with a market
share of 15% share of 23%
Solar manufacturing 500MW solar cell & 635MW module >4.6GW of solar cell & module
capacity
Rooftop solar Revenue of Rs15bn p.a. for 385MW of Revenue of Rs100bn p.a. for >2.4GW of
solar rooftop capacity solar rooftop capacity
Solar pumps Revenue of Rs7bn in FY22 for 27,500 Revenue of >Rs50bn p.a. targeting sale of
solar pumps sold >0.25mn solar pumps
EVC infrastructure 2,600 EV charging points installed in >25,000 EV charging points across India
473 cities & towns (over and above
home chargers)
Home chargers 13,107 home chargers installed >125,000 home chargers p.a.
cumulatively
Distribution business Rs270bn annual revenue; 12.3mn Rs600bn annual revenue; 40mn
customers customers
T&D consultancy FY22 revenue of Rs260mn Rs9bn annual revenue
Tata Power Trading EBITDA of Rs790mn To grow EBITDA by 3x
Source: Company, I-Sec research

Targets 3GW p.a. growth in utility-scale RE capacity


TPWR’s current RE portfolio of 5,524MW comprises of 2,927MW/932MW of operational
solar/wind capacity, 785MW of under-construction solar and 900MW of under-
construction hybrid capacity. Company aims to increase this to >20GW by FY27E,
adding 3GW of capacity annually over the next five years. To achieve this, it will focus
on ~20GW of opportunity annually in the areas of solar (including floating), hybrid, RTC
and peak generation capacity and engage with high-pedigree offtakers – SECI, NTPC,
A+ and above states. For RTC power, it will tie up with C&I customers, and spare
thermal & hydro capacities. By CY30, the company targets ~50% RE capacity to be
equipped with storage-based solutions for RTC power supply.
With the company’s green platform, TPREL, now established and cash-rich post the
investment by Blackrock & Mubadala, TPWR aims to improve its bidding success rate
with mid-teen threshold returns. To achieve its utility-scale RE target, company’s
strategy is to pre-prepare for better execution and growth by tying up: 1) for resources
including land, 2) with partners including storage providers and wind OEMs, and 3) for
debt tie-up and refinancing to optimise its interest cost and repayment.
Operationalisation of 4GW solar modules manufacturing unit by Dec’23 and in-house
solar EPC proficiency of TPSSL provide additional benefit. TPWR also plans to
generate additional revenue through carbon credits, sale of excess generation, and
provide RTC solutions to C&I customers.

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Tata Power, August 25, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 1: FY27 capacity mix (target is to reach total capacity of 30GW)

Source: Company

Chart 2: Transitioning towards RTC RE power supply

Source: Company

Utility-scale solar EPC:


TPSSL, TPWR’s in-house solar EPC company, currently has an orderbook of Rs140bn
for 3.7GW of projects (>50% external) and manages O&M for 1.5GW of projects (60%
third-party). Company will continue to target CPSU bids and niche projects, which will
provide market share growth and better margins. Target is to grow the solar EPC
revenue from Rs60bn p.a. currently to Rs200bn p.a. by FY27 with a market share of
23% (vs 15% in FY22). Company will work towards increasing its EPC margins through
improved execution capabilities, providing competitive offering to customers, helped by:
1) contract manufacturing of modules until Dec’23 when in-house module supplies
come on-stream), 2) technological initiatives, 3) forex hedging, and 4) tie-ups with
OEMs and suppliers.

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Tata Power, August 25, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 3: TPSSL targets to increase its utility-scale solar EPC market share

Source: Company

Chart 4: 4GW solar cell & module manufacturing unit in Tamil Nadu to be
operational by Dec’23

Source: Company

Chart 5: TPWR’s captive module requirement is expected to reach 13GW by


FY27; in-house supplies will help significantly

Source: Company

Aims to maintain market leadership in the solar rooftop, pump and EVC
segments:
TPWR estimates the solar rooftop market to increase from ~3GW in CY21 to ~9.5GW
by FY27. Company had a market share of 13% in CY21 (increasing by 520bps YoY)
and has an ambitious target to take it to 42% by FY27. In the solar pump segment,
TPWR expects the market to expand from cumulative installation of 0.3mn solar pumps

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Tata Power, August 25, 2022 ICICI Securities
currently to 4mn by FY27, and targets a market share of 30% (19% market share out
of the Rs130bn market in FY23). In both these businesses, the company will expand
its channel partner network to increase its product offerings to a larger customer base.
Even beyond FY27, the growth potential of both the businesses in the country will be
substantial.
In the EV charging infrastructure space, TPWR is currently the largest player with
>2,300 pubic & semi-public charging points, >400 charging points on various National
& state highways, >18,500 home chargers installed, and currently has presence in >430
cities & towns vs <30 cities for other players. Company will be partnering with several
players to provide destination charging (within cities), highway charging and home
charging facilities through an integrated cloud-based platform. TPWR will provide
multiple hardware as well as tariff and payment options to customers. It also plans to
enter the mass 2-wheeler EV charging market.
Chart 6: TPWR’s strategy for its EV-charging business segments

Source: Company

T&D segment to provide substantial growth opportunities:


TPWR targets to expand its distribution footprint to 40mn customers by CY27. It will
also pursue smart meter opportunities and distribution services. Company believes that
passage of the Electricity Amendment Bill will mark the turnaround of the distribution
sector and will be positive for the company, especially since it will provide privatisation
opportunities in select areas of states including Jharkhand, MP, Rajasthan, UP, and the
UTs of J&K and Ladakh, either through PPP or through franchisee modes (30mn
customers expected over the next 15-18 months, as per the company). Company’s
experience in this segment, especially of success of the recent takeover of the four
circles in Odisha, will be key.

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Tata Power, August 25, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 7: TPWR has been able to turnaround key levers of Odisha discoms
earlier than the scheduled trajectory

Source: Company

TPWR will be a key participant in the upcoming leg of growth in the transmission sector.
Its strategy is to grow the transmission business through TBCB projects and M&As.
Company will leverage its transmission project execution and O&M experience.
Innovative, low-cost finance will be key and the company may look to monetise the
assets as well in the future.
Chart 8: Transmission bid pipeline is worth Rs870bn over the next three years

Source: Company

Targets carbon net-zero by 2045


One of the key sustainability-related targets of the company is to transition towards
carbon neutrality by the year 2045. In the medium term, it aims to become 100% water-
neutral and 100% zero waste to landfill – biodegradable waste by CY27.

Targets 4x growth in PAT by FY27 with much healthier returns profile


Over FY23-FY27, TPWR targets capex of Rs1trn, taking its capital employed from
Rs656bn at FY22-end to >Rs1.6trn by FY27. 80% of the capex is targeted for the green
businesses including utility-scale RE and solar manufacturing, while 17% is intended to
be spent in the T&D businesses. With this, the company aims to grow its revenue and
PAT 3x and 4x from FY22 levels of Rs426bn and Rs23bn respectively. Simultaneously,
TPWR is focusing on improving both RoE and RoCE to >13% and >11% from the
current 8.5% and 8.9% respectively. Debt sustainability will be key to ensure that the
company’s growth strategy results in good returns to the investor. TPWR’s aims to keep
its debt/equity at <1.5x and debt/EBITDA <3.5x.

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Tata Power, August 25, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 9: 80% of the FY23-FY27 capex of Rs1trn will be in green businesses;
capital employed to increase >2.4x to Rs1.6trn

Source: Company

Chart 10: Key financial targets for FY27

FY22 actual performance FY27 target

Revenue: Rs426bn 3x FY22 revenue

PAT: Rs23bn 4x FY22 PAT

Capital employed: Rs656bn Capital employed: Rs1.6trn

RoE: 8.5% RoE: >13%

RoCE: 8.9% RoCE: >11%

Debt : Equity of 1.53x Debt : Equity of <1.5x

Debt : EBITDA of 3.92x Debt : EBITDA of <3.5x

Source: Company

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Tata Power, August 25, 2022 ICICI Securities

Financial summary (consolidated)


Table 2: Profit and Loss statement
(Rs mn, year ending March 31)
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Operating Income (Sales) 272,883 289,214 294,927 286,634 329,973 424,353 461,111 507,807
Operating Expenses 220,510 229,743 231,359 211,936 255,404 353,045 382,102 418,557
EBITDA 52,372 59,471 63,568 74,698 74,569 71,308 79,009 89,250
% margins 19.2% 20.6% 21.6% 26.1% 22.6% 16.8% 17.1% 17.6%
Depreciation & Amortisation 19,886 23,981 23,931 26,336 27,449 31,222 32,792 35,643
Gross Interest 31,140 37,230 41,700 44,937 40,104 38,590 42,197 42,340
Other Income 2,022 4,327 3,958 5,626 4,392 9,200 4,500 4,000
Recurring PBT 3,369 2,587 1,895 9,051 11,408 10,695 8,520 15,266
Add: Extraordinaries (6,515) 11,025 17,458 2,262 (1,093) (1,503) - -
Less: Taxes (458) 1,643 6,561 3,572 4,201 2,386 5,215 7,230
Less: Minority Interest (2,031) (2,026) (2,495) (2,991) (3,113) (4,142) - -
Net Income (Reported) 7,455 24,756 21,909 10,174 11,274 17,415 24,221 29,452
Recurring Net Income 11,226 16,240 24,404 13,164 14,387 21,556 24,221 29,452
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 3: Balance sheet


(Rs mn, year ending March 31)
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Assets
Total Current Assets 189,299 210,802 222,610 237,553 266,586 323,102 341,154 344,501
of which cash & cash eqv. 9,543 11,858 7,875 20,942 61,127 66,407 95,404 86,020
Total Current Liabilities & Provisions 133,222 127,622 121,837 121,811 186,828 217,262 217,262 217,262
Net Current Assets 56,077 83,180 100,774 115,742 79,758 105,841 123,892 127,240
Investments 119,570 124,289 130,181 145,348 131,491 141,603 141,603 141,603
of which
Other Marketable 23,769 13,173 10,284 13,322 12,284 15,803 15,803 15,803
Net Fixed Assets 486,313 481,339 468,806 492,779 554,891 620,245 622,953 630,811
of which
Capital Work-in-Progress 21,779 16,526 25,757 16,115 35,998 46,351 56,351 36,351
Non CA/Goodwill 26,181 20,943 20,023 21,802 35,545 43,895 43,895 43,895
Total Assets 688,141 709,751 719,783 775,671 801,684 911,584 932,344 943,548

Liabilities
Borrowings 503,154 500,892 500,060 498,759 446,709 515,900 514,688 498,473
Deferred Tax Liability 48,503 36,103 30,845 72,931 117,480 135,400 135,400 135,400
Equity Share Capital 2,705 2,705 2,705 2,705 3,196 3,196 3,196 3,196
Face Value per share (Rs) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Reserves & Surplus 115,090 149,897 164,507 177,955 205,027 221,220 240,488 264,986
Net Worth 117,795 152,602 167,212 180,660 208,223 224,416 243,683 268,182
Total Liabilities 688,141 709,751 719,783 775,671 801,684 911,584 932,344 943,548
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 4: Cashflow statement


(Rs mn, year ending March 31)
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Operating Cashflow 25,281 28,391 25,137 31,686 33,967 42,273 52,513 61,095
Working Capital Changes 7,165 (24,788) (21,577) (1,901) 76,169 (20,802) 10,945 (12,732)
Capital Commitments (72,694) (34,323) (20,178) (62,438) (76,741) (103,170) (35,500) (43,500)
Free Cashflow (40,247) (30,720) (16,618) (32,653) 33,394 (81,700) 27,958 4,863
Cashflow from Investing Activities (36,285) 20,162 6,847 2,588 5,430 5,681 4,500 4,000
Issue of Share Capital 642 - - - 30,441 - - -
Buyback of shares - - - - - - - -
Inc (Dec) in Borrowings 86,946 (2,262) (832) (1,301) (52,050) 69,191 (1,212) (16,215)
Dividend paid (3,526) (4,236) (4,237) (4,244) (4,192) (4,953) (4,953) (4,953)
Extraordinary Items (6,515) 11,025 17,458 2,262 (1,093) (1,503) - -
Chg. in Cash & Bank balance (2,565) 2,315 (3,983) 13,067 40,185 13,630 28,997 (9,384)
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Tata Power, August 25, 2022 ICICI Securities
Table 5: Key ratios
(Year ending March 31)
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS(Basic Recurring) 4.2 6.0 9.0 4.9 4.5 6.7 7.6 9.2
Diluted Recurring EPS 4.2 6.0 9.0 4.9 4.7 6.7 7.6 9.2
Recurring Cash EPS 11.5 14.9 17.9 14.6 13.1 16.5 17.8 20.4
Dividend per share (DPS) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Book Value per share (BV) 43.5 56.4 61.8 66.8 65.2 70.2 76.3 83.9

Growth Ratios (%)


Operating Income (25.2) 6.0 2.0 (2.8) 15.1 28.6 8.7 10.1
EBITDA (34.5) 13.6 6.9 17.5 (0.2) (4.4) 10.8 13.0
Recurring Net Income 8.1 44.7 50.3 (46.1) 9.3 49.8 12.4 21.6
Diluted Recurring EPS 8.1 44.7 50.3 (46.1) (3.8) 44.1 12.4 21.6
Diluted Recurring CEPS (8.9) 29.3 20.2 (18.3) (10.3) 26.2 8.0 14.2

Valuation Ratios (x)


P/E 55.3 38.2 25.4 47.2 51.0 34.0 30.3 24.9
P/CEPS 20.0 15.4 12.8 15.7 17.5 13.9 12.9 11.3
P/BV 5.3 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.7
EV / EBITDA 21.3 18.7 17.5 14.7 15.0 16.6 14.6 12.8
EV / Operating Income 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.3
EV / Operating FCF (27.7) (36.1) (67.0) (33.6) 33.5 (14.5) 41.2 235.6

Operating Ratios
Operating expenses / Revenue 80.8 79.4 78.4 73.9 77.4 83.2 82.9 82.4
Other Income / PBT (%) 60.0 167.2 208.9 62.2 38.5 86.0 52.8 26.2
Effective Tax Rate (%) 42.1 22.8 15.3 20.9 32.6 19.3 17.4 24.1
NWC / Total Assets (%) 6.8 10.0 12.9 12.2 2.3 4.3 3.1 4.4
Inventory Turnover (days) 21.4 20.5 21.1 22.3 20.8 25.0 25.0 25.0
Receivables (days) 76.4 55.5 75.2 74.8 86.5 80.0 80.0 80.0
Payables (days) 146.8 137.3 119.8 124.2 124.2 115.0 115.0 115.0
D/E Ratio (x) 4.2 3.2 2.9 2.6 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.5

Return/Profitability Ratios (%)


Recurring Net Income Margins 4.1 5.6 8.3 4.6 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.8
RoCE 4.8 7.0 9.1 7.4 7.0 7.8 8.9 9.1
RoNW 9.5 10.6 14.6 7.3 6.9 9.6 9.9 11.0
Dividend Payout Ratio 31.3 21.7 14.4 31.8 33.1 23.0 20.5 16.8
Dividend Yield 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
EBITDA Margins 19.2 20.6 21.6 26.1 22.6 16.8 17.1 17.6
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Tata Power, August 25, 2022 ICICI Securities

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BUY: >15% return; ADD: 5% to 15% return; HOLD: Negative 5% to Positive 5% return; REDUCE: Negative 5% to Negative 15% return; SELL: < negative 15% return

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