Question 4.

4 a)
Weeks Actual no: of patient Wieght Patient*Weight
1 65
2 62
3 70 0.167 12
4 48 0.25 12
5 63 0.25 16
6 52 0.333 17
7 57 57

Question 4.4 b)
Weeks Actual no: of patient Wieght Patient*Weight moving average
1 65
2 62
3 70 0.1 7
4 48 0.15 7
5 63 0.15 9 61
6 52 0.2 10 61
7 34 34 58

Question 4.4 b)
Weeks Actual no: of patient Wieght Patient*Weight moving average
1 65
2 62
3 70 0.1 7
4 48 0.2 10
5 63 0.3 19 61
6 52 0.4 21 61
7 56 56 58
Question 4.12 a)
Month Price Moving Average
Januarary 1.80
February 1.67
March 1.70 1.73
April 1.85 1.69
May 1.90 1.78
June 1.87 1.88
July 1.80 1.89
August 1.83 1.84
September 1.70 1.82
October 1.65 1.77
November 1.70 1.67
December 1.75 1.67
1.77 1.73
Average 1.77

Question 4.12 b)
Month Price Moving Average
Januarary 1.80
February 1.67
March 1.70
April 1.85 1.72
May 1.90 1.74
June 1.87 1.82
July 1.80 1.87
August 1.83 1.86
September 1.70 1.83
October 1.65 1.78
November 1.70 1.73
December 1.75 1.68
1.77 1.70
average 1.77

Question 4.12 c)
3-months moving average
Month Price Moving Average
Januarary 1.80
February 1.67
March 1.70 1.73
April 1.85 1.69
May 1.90 1.78
June 1.87 1.88
July 1.80 1.89
August 1.83 1.84
September 1.70 1.82
October 1.65 1.77
November 1.70 1.67
December 1.75 1.67
1.77 1.73
Averge 1.77
Mean Absolute deviation

Month Price Moving Average

Januarary 1.80
February 1.67
March 1.70
April 1.85 1.72
May 1.90 1.74
June 1.87 1.82
July 1.80 1.87
August 1.83 1.86
September 1.70 1.83
October 1.65 1.78
November 1.70 1.73
December 1.75 1.68
1.77 1.70
Averge 1.77
Mean Absolute Deviation

Using the mean absolute deviation 3-months average is better because it give us the MAD of 0.00000 mean that it most accur

Question 4.12 d)

Month Price Exponentail Smoothing at α 0.1 Mean absolute deviation

Januarary 1.80 1.80 0.03
February 1.67 1.68 (0.09)
March 1.70 1.70 (0.07)
April 1.85 1.83 0.07
May 1.90 1.89 0.13
June 1.87 1.87 0.10
July 1.80 1.81 0.04
August 1.83 1.83 0.06
September 1.70 1.71 (0.06)
October 1.65 1.66 (0.11)
November 1.70 1.70 (0.07)
December 1.75 1.74 (0.02)
average 1.77 0.0005
Exponentail Smoothing with α 0.1 is better because Mean absolute deviation is minimize to 0.0005 while other optio
valleys are smoothed out.
 4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0

Average-Moving average

(0.04)
(0.09)
0.00
0.10
0.11
 0.06
0.04
(0.01)
(0.10)
(0.10)
(0.05)
(0.00327)
(0.00000)

Average-Moving average

(0.05)
(0.03)
0.04
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.00
(0.05)
(0.09)
(0.07)

(0.00000)

00000 mean that it most accurate method to find averages.

Exponentail Smoothing at α 0.3 Mean absolute deviation Exponentail Smoothing at α 0.5

1.80 0.03 1.80
1.71 (0.06) 1.73
1.70 (0.07) 1.72
1.81 0.04 1.78
1.87 0.10 1.84
1.87 0.10 1.86
1.82 0.05 1.83
1.83 0.06 1.83
1.74 (0.03) 1.76
1.68 (0.09) 1.71
1.69 (0.08) 1.70
1.73 (0.04) 1.73
0.0024
e to 0.0005 while other options have higher MAD comparatevely. It is because smaller the alpha, more peaks and
 Prices and 2 Months Moving Averages
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
ry ry ch ril ay ne Ju
ly us
t
be
r er be
r
be
r
ara r ua ar Ap M Ju ug m tob m m
nu b M A e c e e
Fe pt O v
De
c
Ja Se No

Month Price Moving Average

Prices and 3 Months Moving Averages

4
3.5
3
2.5 Moving Average
Price
2 Month
1.5
1
0.5
0
Mean absolute deviation
0.03
(0.03)
(0.05)
0.02
0.07
0.09
0.06
0.06
(0.00)
(0.06)
(0.06)
(0.04)
0.0061
pha, more peaks and
Question 3,

Table 1 - Sales for J.R.

Dime Department Store, Department Store Sales for Dime's sales monthly
In $ Millions
Months Sept 2008-Aug 2002 County Sep 2008-Dec 2012 growth rate
in %age
Sep-08 1.71 55.80
Oct-08 1.90 56.40 111%
Nov-08 2.74 71.40 144%
Dec-08 4.20 117.60 153%
Jan-09 1.45 46.80 35%
Feb-09 1.80 48.00 124%
Mar-09 2.03 60.00 113%
Apr-09 1.99 57.60 98%
May-09 2.32 61.80 117%
Jun-09 2.20 58.20 95%
Jul-09 2.13 56.40 97%
Aug-09 2.43 63.00 114%
Sep-09 1.90 57.60 78%
Oct-09 2.13 53.40 112%
Nov-09 2.56 71.40 120%
Dec-09 4.16 114.00 163%
Jan-10 2.31 46.80 56%
Feb-10 1.89 48.60 82%
Mar-10 2.02 59.40 107%
Apr-10 2.23 58.20 110%
May-10 2.39 60.60 107%
Jun-10 2.14 55.20 90%
Jul-10 2.27 51.00 106%
Aug-10 2.21 58.80 97%
Sep-10 1.89 49.80 86%
Oct-10 2.29 54.60 121%
Nov-10 2.83 65.40 124%
Dec-10 4.04 102.00 143%
Jan-11 2.31 43.80 57%
Feb-11 1.99 45.60 86%
Mar-11 2.42 57.60 122%
Apr-11 2.45 53.40 101%
May-11 2.57 56.40 105%
Jun-11 2.42 52.80 94%
Jul-11 2.40 54.00 99%
Aug-11 2.50 60.60 104%
Sep-11 2.09 47.40 84%
Oct-11 2.54 54.60 122%
Nov-11 2.97 67.80 117%
Dec-11 4.35 100.20 146%
Jan-12 2.56 48.00 59%
Feb-12 2.28 51.60 89%
Mar-12 2.69 57.60 118%
Apr-12 2.48 58.20 92%
May-12 2.73 60.00 110%
Jun-12 2.37 57.00 87%
Jul-12 2.31 57.60 97%
Aug-12 2.23 61.80 97%
Sep-12 2.32 69.00 104%
Oct-12 2.41 75.00 104%
Nov-12 2.51 85.20 104%
Dec-12 2.61 121.80 104%
 Country's Departmenal County's Department Store Sales Contry department
Store Sales growth rates Sep -Dec 12 (no Hurricane) store's Excess sales
in %age In $ million

101%
127%
165%
40%
103%
125%
96%
107%
94%
97%
112%
91%
93%
134%
160%
41%
104%
122%
98%
104%
91%
92%
115%
85%
110%
120%
156%
43%
104%
126%
93%
106%
94%
102%
112%
 78%
115%
124%
148%
48%
108%
112%
101%
103%
95%
101%
107%
104% 64.44 4.56
104% 71.95 3.05
104% 78.21 6.99
104% 88.85 32.95
Dime's sale as % of
countrys dep store sales Dime's excess lost sales
in %age In $ Million
3.06%
3.37%
3.84%
3.57%
3.10%
3.75%
3.38%
3.45%
3.75%
3.78%
3.78%
3.86%
3.30%
3.99%
3.59%
3.65%
4.94%
3.89%
3.40%
3.83%
3.94%
3.88%
4.45%
3.76%
3.80%
4.19%
4.33%
3.96%
5.27%
4.36%
4.20%
4.59%
4.56%
4.58%
4.44%
4.13%
4.41%
4.65%
4.38%
4.34%
5.33%
4.42%
4.67%
4.26%
4.55%
4.16%
4.01%
3.61%
4.05% 0.18
4.05% 0.12
4.05% 0.28
4.05% 1.34
Question 3,
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.894739414606917 Sep-12
R Square 0.800558620051128 Oct-12
Adjusted R Square 0.796222937878326 Nov-12
Standard Error 0.276305931770982 Dec-12
Observations 48

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1 14.0966564751358 14.0966564751358
Residual 46 3.51186852486421 0.076344967931831
Total 47 17.608525

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 0.357040944167045 0.157947593707666 2.26050258687617
X Variable 1 0.0343045063941021 0.0025245462123092 13.588385202394

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals Standard Residuals

1 2.27123240095794 -0.561232400957942 -2.05315879744492
2 2.2918151047944 -0.391815104794403 -1.43337880708123
3 2.80638270070593 -0.0663827007059341 -0.242848106630884
4 4.39125089611345 -0.19125089611345 -0.699653938732557
5 1.96249184341102 -0.512491843411023 -1.87485101559016
6 2.00365725108395 -0.203657251083945 -0.745040158074881
7 2.41531132781317 -0.385311327813171 -1.40958601303932
8 2.33298051246733 -0.342980512467326 -1.25472701740402
9 2.47705943932255 -0.157059439322554 -0.574571191927733
10 2.35356321630379 -0.153563216303787 -0.561780944898944
11 2.2918151047944 -0.161815104794403 -0.591968862455247
12 2.51822484699548 -0.0882248469954767 -0.322753320109131
13 2.33298051246733 -0.432980512467326 -1.58397438704027
14 2.1889015856121 -0.0589015856120967 -0.215479912557639
15 2.80638270070593 -0.246382700705934 -0.901342845903395
16 4.26775467309468 -0.107754673094682 -0.394199363138207
17 1.96249184341102 0.347508156588977 1.27129051648961
18 2.02423995492041 -0.134239954920407 -0.491090578418148
19 2.39472862397671 -0.374728623976709 -1.3708712641305
20 2.35356321630379 -0.123563216303787 -0.45203182168686
21 2.43589403164963 -0.0458940316496315 -0.167894324473824
22 2.25064969712148 -0.110649697121481 -0.404790241425509
23 2.10657077026625 0.163429229733748 0.597873822350176
24 2.37414592014025 -0.164145920140248 -0.600495693807771
25 2.06540536259333 -0.175405362593329 -0.64168615837719
26 2.23006699328502 0.0599330067149806 0.219253164614437
27 2.60055566234132 0.229444337658678 0.839377162800584
28 3.85610059636546 0.183899403634542 0.672759943603877
29 1.85957832422872 0.450421675771284 1.64777946638721
30 1.9213264357381 0.0686735642618994 0.251228782186408
31 2.33298051246733 0.0870194875326744 0.318343748635866
32 2.1889015856121 0.261098414387904 0.955177401704602
33 2.2918151047944 0.278184895205597 1.01768494465533
34 2.16831888177564 0.251681118224365 0.920726068472037
35 2.20948428944856 0.190515710551442 0.696964406371603
36 2.43589403164963 0.0641059683503684 0.23451912730382
37 1.98307454724748 0.106925452752516 0.391165822954794
38 2.23006699328502 0.309933006714981 1.13382919138181
39 2.68288647768717 0.287113522312834 1.05034857787223
40 3.79435248485607 0.555647515143925 2.03272758673398
41 2.00365725108395 0.556342748916055 2.03527096329794
42 2.12715347410271 0.152846525897287 0.559159073441349
43 2.33298051246733 0.357019487532674 1.30608585754463
44 2.35356321630379 0.126436783696213 0.462544205080515
45 2.41531132781317 0.31468867218683 1.15122686190933
46 2.31239780863086 0.0576021913691358 0.210726333261913
47 2.33298051246733 -0.0229805124673255 -0.084069703141779
48 2.47705943932255 -0.247059439322554 -0.903818561563987
 X Variable 1 Residual Plo
Dime's sales forcast Country's dep store sales 12
2.72 69.00 10
2.93 75.00 8

Residuals
3.28 85.20 6
4.53 121.80 4
2
0
- 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.0
X Variable 1
F Significance F
184.64421240864 1.02336094511957E-17

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
0.0285664616411056 0.0391089329237873 0.674973 0.039109 0.674973
1.02336094511956E-17 0.0292228585138466 0.039386 0.029223 0.039386

PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Percentile Y
1.04166666666667 1.45
3.125 1.71
5.20833333333333 1.8
7.29166666666667 1.89
9.375 1.89
11.4583333333333 1.9
13.5416666666667 1.9
15.625 1.99
17.7083333333333 1.99
19.7916666666667 2.02
21.875 2.03
23.9583333333333 2.09
26.0416666666667 2.13
28.125 2.13
30.2083333333333 2.14
32.2916666666667 2.2
34.375 2.21
36.4583333333333 2.23
38.5416666666667 2.23
40.625 2.27
42.7083333333333 2.28
44.7916666666667 2.29
46.875 2.31
48.9583333333333 2.31
51.0416666666667 2.31
53.125 2.32
55.2083333333333 2.37
57.2916666666667 2.39
59.375 2.4
61.4583333333333 2.42
63.5416666666667 2.42
65.625 2.43
67.7083333333333 2.45
69.7916666666667 2.48
71.875 2.5
73.9583333333333 2.54
76.0416666666667 2.56
78.125 2.56
80.2083333333333 2.57
82.2916666666667 2.69
84.375 2.73
86.4583333333333 2.74
88.5416666666667 2.83
90.625 2.97
92.7083333333333 4.04
94.7916666666667 4.16
96.875 4.2
98.9583333333333 4.35
1 Residual Plot X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00 Y

Y
1.00
-
40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00
00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 X Variable 1
X Variable 1

Normal Probability Plot

5
4
3
2
Y

1
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Sample Percentile