World Climate Simulation, EDHEC, May 31st 2023

C-ROADS

Developed Countries
The United States, European Union, Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South
Korea, and other former Soviet Republics and eastern European countries.

Emerging Countries (Developing A Nations)

China, India, South Africa, Mexico, Brazil, and Indonesia - large rapidly emerging economies.

Developing Countries
Over 100 nations in Southeast Asia, Central and South America, Africa, the small islands, and the
Middle East. Developing economies, excluding the major rapidly developing nations.

2022 : Fossil fuel and cement emissions = 37,5 Gt CO2 (Gigatonnes of carbone dioxyde)
Land Use and Deforestation emissions = 3,9 Gt CO2

If we take in account the other greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) then global emissions in
2021 are around 58 Gt CO2eq

To use and download C-ROADS:

https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/c-roads

www.albedoclimat.org
albedo@albedoclimat.org
ROUND #1

Temperature Rise:
After the first round of negotiation, temperature is reduced from 3.6°C to 2.5°C.
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere keep rising as long as emissions are bigger than capture and storage by the ocean
and the biosphere. In 2100, with the 1st round scenario, CO2 concentration reaches 647 ppm in 2100.
For the temperature not to overpass the 2°C limit, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere should stabilize between 400
et 450 ppm as soon as possible. To limit global warming to 1.5°C, concentration should decrease to around 350 ppm.
In 2021, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is 415ppm.

Emissions per capita:

The graph shows CO2 emissions per capita in each region. In 2000, global emissions per capita are around 5 tons per
person. In 2100, emissions per capita are still at 1 ton per person. Some estimate that emissions should be 2 tons per
person around 2050.
On the graph we can see that Developed countries emissions per capita are almost two times higher than global
emissions per capita and 3 times higher than developing countries emissions per capita.
Land Use Net Emissions:
We can see on the graph that land use and deforestation emissions are located in the emerging and developing
countries. This is why policies to reduce deforestation are only efficient in these two regions. We should underline that
deforestation and land use emissions are mainly due to the consumption of the developed countries. At the end of this
negotiation, after the 2nd round, the land use and forestry emissions are negative. The carbon sink store around 0.5
Gigatons per year.

Sea Level Rise (SLR):

Sea Level Rise, in a "business as usual" scenario, is 0.70 m at the end of this century. After this first round,
sea level rise is 0.62 m. After the 2nd round, SLR will still be over 0.6 m.
The inertia of the ocean and of the ice caps are the reasons why most of the sea level rise that will happen this
century is in a large part unavoidable.

Capture and Storage by Afforestation:

Afforestation policies are a tool to mitigate net emissions as trees can capture atmospheric CO2. Nonetheless annual
removals due to afforestation only have an effect after 2040. Therefore, afforestation can only limit global warming
during this century by about 0.1°C. Here, after the 1st round, around 2.5-3 gigatons CO2 will be remove after 2050
every year thanks to the policies implemented by the developed, emerging and developing countries.

Ocean Acidification:
On the right graph, we can see that decisions on emissions reduction have an impact that can be important on ocean
acidification and can mitigate the impacts on the ocean ecosystems.
ROUND #2
2°C SCENARIO

1.5°C SCENARIO

We can notice, that whatever we do the temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C during this century. But
the goal is still to limit global warming to 1.5°C at the end of this century. Indeed, in a 1.5°C
scenario, the temperature rise will stabilize and then decrease during the second half of the
century.
LINKS :

Books, Websites, Links:

http://www.albedoclimat.org/bibliographie-liens

Climate Science, Risk & Solutions

Climate Knowledge for Everyone. The goal of this site is to summarize the most important lines of
evidence for human-caused climate change. By Dr. Kerry Emanuel, Professor of Atmospheric
Science at MIT.
https://climateprimer.mit.edu/

Climate Analytics: a multidisciplinary and culturally diverse team composed of experts in climate
science and impacts, including authors of the IPCC, experts in climate finance, adaptation, climate
negotiation, mitigation policies and climate policy analysis. Climate Analytics provide state-of-the-
art solutions to global and national climate change
https://climateanalytics.org/

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is an independent scientific analysis produced by two
research organisations tracking climate action since 2009. CAT tracks progress towards the
globally agreed aim of holding warming well below 2°C, and pursuing efforts to limit warming to
1.5°C. Find out more Looking for data on decarbonisation?
https://climateactiontracker.org/

Carbone history
http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/fr/outreach

Laurent Richard
www.albedoclimat.org
albedo@albedoclimat.org