Tahun Tangkapan (Ct ton) Upaya (F trip) CPUE (Ut) Schaefer

1977 37870.5 27576 1.373314 a 11.843679491

1978 25153.3 27818 0.90421 b -0.000466006
1979 26776.9 32015 0.836386 MSY 75252.650287
1980 17281.2 14003 1.234107 f MSY 12707.647205
1981 20768 21242 0.977686 R2 0.1852101035
1982 37957.1 18393 2.063671
1983 47154.4 15221 3.097983
1984 31847.8 13646 2.333856 a qk 11.8436795
1985 16258.6 9555 1.70158 b q^2k/r 0.0004660
1986 5525.9 6005 0.920216 MSY k/2 75252.65
1987 12649.1 9909 1.276526 k 150505.30
1988 29131.5 10075 2.891464 q 0.0000786928
1989 24042.2 12302 1.954333 r 2
1990 33307.4 17964 1.854119
1991 49679.8 19034 2.610056
1992 49551.8 17450 2.839645
1993 43709.7 1495 29.23726
1994 45844.3 12258 3.739949
1995 18414.3 9030 2.039236
1996 11534.1 9955 1.158624
1997 63056.5 1343 46.95197
1998 76795.5 43272 1.774716
1999 18413.5 10102 1.822758
2000 13229.9 12110 1.092477
2001 7547.5 8201 0.920315
2002 70843.6 21323 3.322403
 k 150505.3
0.000466 r
k/2 q
r/2q
Tahun Tangkapan (Ct ton) Upaya (F trip) CPUE (Ut) ln CPUE Fox
1977 37870.5 27576 1.373314 0.317227 a 1.42519446911
1978 25153.3 27818 0.90421 -0.100694 b -4.3105944E-05
1979 26776.9 32015 0.836386 -0.178665 MSY 35491.344207
1980 17281.2 14003 1.234107 0.210348 fMSY 23198.6566154
1981 20768 21242 0.977686 -0.022567 R2 0.18179906222
1982 37957.1 18393 2.063671 0.724486
1983 47154.4 15221 3.097983 1.130751
1984 31847.8 13646 2.333856 0.847522 q 0.0000431
1985 16258.6 9555 1.70158 0.531557 K 96475.4760256
1986 5525.9 6005 0.920216 -0.083146 r 0.14
1987 12649.1 9909 1.276526 0.244143
1988 29131.5 10075 2.891464 1.061763
1989 24042.2 12302 1.954333 0.670049
1990 33307.4 17964 1.854119 0.61741
1991 49679.8 19034 2.610056 0.959372
1992 49551.8 17450 2.839645 1.043679
1993 43709.7 1495 29.23726 3.375444
1994 45844.3 12258 3.739949 1.319072
1995 18414.3 9030 2.039236 0.712575
1996 11534.1 9955 1.158624 0.147233
1997 63056.5 1343 46.95197 3.849125
1998 76795.5 43272 1.774716 0.57364
1999 18413.5 10102 1.822758 0.600351
2000 13229.9 12110 1.092477 0.088448
2001 7547.5 8201 0.920315 -0.08304
2002 70843.6 21323 3.322403 1.200688
4.310594E-05
 X1 X2 Y
Tahun Tangkapan (Ct ton) Upaya (F trip) CPUE (Ut) ln Ut Et+Et+1 ln Ut+1
1977 37870.5 27576 1.373314 0.317227 55394 -0.100694 SUMMARY OUTPUT
1978 25153.3 27818 0.90421 -0.100694 59833 -0.178665
1979 26776.9 32015 0.836386 -0.178665 46018 0.210348 Regression Statistics
1980 17281.2 14003 1.234107 0.210348 35245 -0.022567 Multiple R
1981 20768 21242 0.977686 -0.022567 39635 0.724486 R Square
1982 37957.1 18393 2.063671 0.724486 33614 1.130751 Adjusted R
1983 47154.4 15221 3.097983 1.130751 28867 0.847522 Standard E
1984 31847.8 13646 2.333856 0.847522 23201 0.531557 Observatio
1985 16258.6 9555 1.70158 0.531557 15560 -0.083146
1986 5525.9 6005 0.920216 -0.083146 15914 0.244143 ANOVA
1987 12649.1 9909 1.276526 0.244143 19984 1.061763
1988 29131.5 10075 2.891464 1.061763 22377 0.670049 Regression
1989 24042.2 12302 1.954333 0.670049 30266 0.61741 Residual
1990 33307.4 17964 1.854119 0.61741 36998 0.959372 Total
1991 49679.8 19034 2.610056 0.959372 36484 1.043679
1992 49551.8 17450 2.839645 1.043679 18945 3.375444
1993 43709.7 1495 29.23726 3.375444 13753 1.319072 a
1994 45844.3 12258 3.739949 1.319072 21288 0.712575 b
1995 18414.3 9030 2.039236 0.712575 18985 0.147233 c
1996 11534.1 9955 1.158624 0.147233 11298 3.849125
1997 63056.5 1343 46.95197 3.849125 44615 0.57364 a
1998 76795.5 43272 1.774716 0.57364 53374 0.600351 b
1999 18413.5 10102 1.822758 0.600351 22212 0.088448 c
2000 13229.9 12110 1.092477 0.088448 20311 -0.08304 r
2001 7547.5 8201 0.920315 -0.08304 29524 1.200688 q
2002 70843.6 21323 3.322403 1.200688 K
MSY
F MSY
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
0.3930399872
0.1544804316
0.0776150163
0.9285390497
25

df SS MS F Significance F
2 3.465555 1.732778 2.009752 0.1578920616
22 18.96806 0.862185
24 22.43362

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
1.5206170146 0.496604 3.062034 0.005709 0.49072432 2.55051 0.490724 2.55051
0.0802771066 0.197222 0.407038 0.687913 -0.3287372883 0.489292 -0.328737 0.489292
-2.662285E-05 1.396E-05 -1.906703 0.069703 -5.557986E-05 2.334E-06 -5.56E-05 2.334E-06

1.5206170146
0.0802771066
2.662285E-05
1.7027536504
9.857786E-05
52997.83866
33194.632213
17273.184933
 Y X1 X2
Tahun Tangkapan (Ct ton) Upaya (F trip) CPUE (Ut) ln(Ut/Ut+1) (Ut/Ut+1/2) (Et/Et+1/2)
1977 37870.5 27576 1.373314 0.4179208082 0.7594001966 0.4956502984
1978 25153.3 27818 0.90421 0.0779707749 0.5405455316 0.4344526003
1979 26776.9 32015 0.836386 -0.3890125805 0.3388628719 1.1431478969
1980 17281.2 14003 1.234107 0.2329146264 0.6311368549 0.3296064401
1981 20768 21242 0.977686 -0.7470534305 0.2368802331 0.5774479422
1982 37957.1 18393 2.063671 -0.4062648535 0.3330668581 0.6041981473
1983 47154.4 15221 3.097983 0.2832294032 0.6637048194 0.5577092188
1984 31847.8 13646 2.333856 0.3159644456 0.6857907445 0.7140763998
1985 16258.6 9555 1.70158 0.6147037473 0.9245543575 0.7955870108
1986 5525.9 6005 0.920216 -0.3272889568 0.3604377055 0.303007367
1987 12649.1 9909 1.276526 -0.8176203238 0.2207404936 0.4917617866
1988 29131.5 10075 2.891464 0.3917141863 0.7397573927 0.4094862624
1989 24042.2 12302 1.954333 0.0526389295 0.5270244952 0.3424070363
1990 33307.4 17964 1.854119 -0.3419617189 0.3551876991 0.4718924031
1991 49679.8 19034 2.610056 -0.0843073802 0.4595743423 0.5453868195
1992 49551.8 17450 2.839645 -2.3317649002 0.0485620906 5.8361204013
1993 43709.7 1495 29.23726 2.0563717511 3.9087771298 0.0609805841
1994 45844.3 12258 3.739949 0.6064969182 0.9169977482 0.6787375415
1995 18414.3 9030 2.039236 0.5653422416 0.880025021 0.4535409342
1996 11534.1 9955 1.158624 -3.7018923047 0.0123383931 3.7062546538
1997 63056.5 1343 46.95197 3.2754849622 13.228026278 0.015518118
1998 76795.5 43272 1.774716 -0.0267103971 0.4868215853 2.1417541081
1999 18413.5 10102 1.822758 0.5119028052 0.8342314682 0.4170933113
2000 13229.9 12110 1.092477 0.1714875774 0.5935346981 0.7383245946
2001 7547.5 8201 0.920315 -1.2837280435 0.1385013475 0.1923040848
2002 70843.6 21323 3.322403 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.859107
R Square 0.738065
Adjusted R 0.714253
Standard Er 0.685068
Observatio 25

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 29.09319 14.5466 30.99515 3.982E-07
Residual 22 10.32501 0.469319
Total 24 39.4182

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
a 0.143715 0.189568 0.758118 0.456426 -0.249425 0.536855 -0.249425 0.536855
b 0.271344 0.054803 4.951269 5.929E-05 0.15769 0.384998 0.15769 0.384998
c -0.547624 0.112907 -4.850205 7.577E-05 -0.781779 -0.313468 -0.781779 -0.313468

a 0.143715
b 0.271344
c 0.547624
r 0.143715
q 0.547624
K 0.967161
MSY 0.034749
FMSY 0.131217
Upper 95,0%
 Y X1 X2
Tahun Tangkapan (Ct ton) Upaya (F trip) CPUE (Ut) Ut+1 (Ut+1/Ut)-1 Ut Et
1977 37870.5 27576 1.373314 0.90421 -0.34158563262 1.373314 27576
1978 25153.3 27818 0.90421 0.836386 -0.0750085409 0.90421 27818
1979 26776.9 32015 0.836386 1.234107 0.475523113994 0.836386 32015
1980 17281.2 14003 1.234107 0.977686 -0.2077787946 1.234107 14003
1981 20768 21242 0.977686 2.063671 1.110771310194 0.977686 21242
1982 37957.1 18393 2.063671 3.097983 0.501200097841 2.063671 18393
1983 47154.4 15221 3.097983 2.333856 -0.24665305214 3.097983 15221
1984 31847.8 13646 2.333856 1.70158 -0.2709146281 2.333856 13646
1985 16258.6 9555 1.70158 0.920216 -0.45919891465 1.70158 9555
1986 5525.9 6005 0.920216 1.276526 0.387202260782 0.920216 6005
1987 12649.1 9909 1.276526 2.891464 1.265103206766 1.276526 9909
1988 29131.5 10075 2.891464 1.954333 -0.32410273293 2.891464 10075
1989 24042.2 12302 1.954333 1.854119 -0.05127749368 1.954333 12302
1990 33307.4 17964 1.854119 2.610056 0.407706407942 1.854119 17964
1991 49679.8 19034 2.610056 2.839645 0.087963260791 2.610056 19034
1992 49551.8 17450 2.839645 29.23726 9.296097090574 2.839645 17450
1993 43709.7 1495 29.23726 3.739949 -0.87208275545 29.23726 1495
1994 45844.3 12258 3.739949 2.039236 -0.45474239062 3.739949 12258
1995 18414.3 9030 2.039236 1.158624 -0.43183433644 2.039236 9030
1996 11534.1 9955 1.158624 46.95197 39.52391544634 1.158624 9955
1997 63056.5 1343 46.95197 1.774716 -0.96220146608 46.95197 1343
1998 76795.5 43272 1.774716 1.822758 0.027070317127 1.774716 43272
1999 18413.5 10102 1.822758 1.092477 -0.40064596092 1.822758 10102
2000 13229.9 12110 1.092477 0.920315 -0.15758926712 1.092477 12110
2001 7547.5 8201 0.920315 3.322403 2.610073179544 0.920315 8201
2002 70843.6 21323 3.322403 0 -1
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.193956
R Square 0.037619
Adjusted R Square -0.04987
Standard Error 8.261198
Observations 25

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 58.6908 29.3454 0.429986 0.655869
Residual 22 1501.443 68.2474
Total 24 1560.134

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
a 4.918341 3.807583 1.291723
b -0.147923 0.179683 -0.823245
c -0.000145 0.000196 -0.739803
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%
0.209859 -2.978103 12.81478 -2.978103
0.419203 -0.520563 0.224716 -0.520563
0.467241 -0.000552 0.000262 -0.000552

a 4.918341
b 0.147923
c 0.000145
r 4.918341
q 0.000145
K 229186.8
MSY 281804.7
FMSY 16951.01
Upper 95,0%
12.81478
0.224716
0.000262
 Schaefer Fox CYP Schnute WH
MSY 75252.65 35491.34 33194.63 281804.7
FMSY 12707.65 23198.66 17273.18 16951.01
R^2 0.18521 0.181799 0.15448 0.037619

SCHAEFER MSY F MSY MEY F MEY OA

p 20 juta/ton 75252.65 12707.65 83194.93 11366.46 15884.56
c 25 juta/trip
k 150505.3 ton F TR TC Rente
q 7.869E-05 MSY 12707.65 1505053 317691.2 1187362
r 2 MEY 11366.46 1488288 284161.6 1204127
OA 22732.93 568323.1 568323.1 0

a* 236.8736
b* 0.00932

Et TR TC F MSY F MEY F OA 1600000

0 0 0 12707.65 11366.46 22732.93
1400000
500 116106.8 12500 12707.65 11366.46 22732.93
1000 227553.5 25000 12707.65 11366.46 22732.93 1200000
1500 334340.1 37500 12707.65 11366.46 22732.93 1000000
2000 436466.7 50000 12707.65 11366.46 22732.93
2550 543423.6 63750 12707.65 11366.46 22732.93 800000
3000 626739.7 75000 12707.65 11366.46 600000
3500 714886.1 87500 12707.65 11366.46
4000 798372.4 100000 12707.65 11366.46 400000
4500 877198.7 112500 12707.65 11366.46 200000
5000 951365 125000 12707.65 11366.46
0
5500 1020871 137500 12707.65 11366.46
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
6000 1085717 150000 12707.65 11366.46 -200000
6500 1145903 162500 12707.65 11366.46
7000 1201429 175000 12707.65 11366.46
7500 1252295 187500 12707.65 11366.46
8000 1298501 200000 12707.65 11366.46
8500 1340047 212500 12707.65 11366.46
9000 1376933 225000 12707.65 11366.46
9500 1409158 237500 12707.65 11366.46
10000 1436724 250000 12707.65 11366.46
10500 1459629 262500 12707.65 11366.46
11000 1477875 275000 12707.65 11366.46
11366 1488277 284150 12707.65 11366.46
12000 1500386 300000 12707.65
12707 1505053 317675 12707.65
13000 1504256 325000
13500 1499202 337500
14000 1489487 350000
14500 1475112 362500
15000 1456077 375000
15500 1432382 387500
16000 1404027 400000
16500 1371012 412500
17000 1333336 425000
17500 1291001 437500
18000 1244006 450000
18500 1192350 462500
19000 1136035 475000
19500 1075059 487500
20000 1009424 500000
20500 939128.2 512500
21000 864172.5 525000
21500 784556.8 537500
22000 700281 550000
22500 611345.1 562500
23000 517749.2 575000
23500 419493.2 587500
24000 316577.1 600000
24500 209001 612500
25000 96764.84 625000
25416 -167.1404 635400
 F OA
22732.93
22732.93

TR
TC
MSY
MEY
OA

0 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Tahun Tangkapan (Ct ton) Upaya (F trip) CPUE (Ut) ln Ut Et ln Ut+1
1977 37870.5 27576 1.373314 0.317227 27576 -0.100694
1978 25153.3 27818 0.90421 -0.100694 27818 -0.178665
1979 26776.9 32015 0.836386 -0.178665 32015 0.210348
1980 17281.2 14003 1.234107 0.210348 14003 -0.022567
1981 20768 21242 0.977686 -0.022567 21242 0.724486
1982 37957.1 18393 2.063671 0.724486 18393 1.130751
1983 47154.4 15221 3.097983 1.130751 15221 0.847522
1984 31847.8 13646 2.333856 0.847522 13646 0.531557
1985 16258.6 9555 1.70158 0.531557 9555 -0.083146
1986 5525.9 6005 0.920216 -0.083146 6005 0.244143
1987 12649.1 9909 1.276526 0.244143 9909 1.061763
1988 29131.5 10075 2.891464 1.061763 10075 0.670049
1989 24042.2 12302 1.954333 0.670049 12302 0.61741
1990 33307.4 17964 1.854119 0.61741 17964 0.959372
1991 49679.8 19034 2.610056 0.959372 19034 1.043679
1992 49551.8 17450 2.839645 1.043679 17450 3.375444
1993 43709.7 1495 29.23726 3.375444 1495 1.319072
1994 45844.3 12258 3.739949 1.319072 12258 0.712575
1995 18414.3 9030 2.039236 0.712575 9030 0.147233
1996 11534.1 9955 1.158624 0.147233 9955 3.849125
1997 63056.5 1343 46.95197 3.849125 1343 0.57364
1998 76795.5 43272 1.774716 0.57364 43272 0.600351
1999 18413.5 10102 1.822758 0.600351 10102 0.088448
2000 13229.9 12110 1.092477 0.088448 12110 -0.08304
2001 7547.5 8201 0.920315 -0.08304 8201 1.200688
2002 70843.6 21323 3.322403 1.200688

Harga 26 juta/ton
Biaya 10 juta/trip
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.158428
R Square 0.025099
Adjusted R Square -0.063528
Standard Error 0.997054
Observations 25

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 0.56307 0.281535 0.283201 0.756073
Residual 22 21.87055 0.994116
Total 24 22.43362

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
a 0.899863 0.507514 1.773081
b 0.071082 0.234931 0.302565
c -1.15E-05 2.384E-05 -0.48309
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
0.090062 -0.152656 1.952382 -0.152656 1.952382
0.765064 -0.416135 0.558298 -0.416135 0.558298
0.633805 -6.1E-05 3.792E-05 -6.1E-05 3.792E-05
 Tahun Tangkapan (Ct ton) Upaya (F trip) CPUE (Ut) ln Ut Et+Et+1 ln Ut+1
1977 37870.5 27576 1.373314 0.317227 55394 -0.100694
1978 25153.3 27818 0.90421 -0.100694 59833 -0.178665
1979 26776.9 32015 0.836386 -0.178665 46018 0.210348
1980 17281.2 14003 1.234107 0.210348 35245 -0.022567
1981 20768 21242 0.977686 -0.022567 39635 0.724486
1982 37957.1 18393 2.063671 0.724486 33614 1.130751
1983 47154.4 15221 3.097983 1.130751 28867 0.847522
1984 31847.8 13646 2.333856 0.847522 23201 0.531557
1985 16258.6 9555 1.70158 0.531557 15560 -0.083146
1986 5525.9 6005 0.920216 -0.083146 15914 0.244143
1987 12649.1 9909 1.276526 0.244143 19984 1.061763
1988 29131.5 10075 2.891464 1.061763 22377 0.670049
1989 24042.2 12302 1.954333 0.670049 30266 0.61741
1990 33307.4 17964 1.854119 0.61741 36998 0.959372
1991 49679.8 19034 2.610056 0.959372 36484 1.043679
1992 49551.8 17450 2.839645 1.043679 18945 3.375444
Upper 95,0% 1993 43709.7 1495 29.23726 3.375444 13753 1.319072
1994 45844.3 12258 3.739949 1.319072 21288 0.712575
1995 18414.3 9030 2.039236 0.712575 18985 0.147233
1996 11534.1 9955 1.158624 0.147233 11298 3.849125
1997 63056.5 1343 46.95197 3.849125 44615 0.57364
1998 76795.5 43272 1.774716 0.57364 53374 0.600351
1999 18413.5 10102 1.822758 0.600351 22212 0.088448
2000 13229.9 12110 1.092477 0.088448 20311 -0.08304
2001 7547.5 8201 0.920315 -0.08304 29524 1.200688
2002 70843.6 21323 3.322403 1.200688

Harga 26 juta/ton
Biaya 10 juta/trip
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.3930399872
R Square 0.1544804316
Adjusted R 0.0776150163
Standard E 0.9285390497
Observatio 25

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 3.465555 1.732778 2.009752 0.157892
Residual 22 18.96806 0.862185
Total 24 22.43362

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

a ln qK 1.5206170146 0.496604 3.062034 0.005709 0.490724 2.55051 0.490724 2.55051
b 0.0802771066 0.197222 0.407038 0.687913 -0.328737 0.489292 -0.328737 0.489292
c -2.662285E-05 1.396E-05 -1.906703 0.069703 -5.56E-05 2.334E-06 -5.56E-05 2.334E-06

r 1.7027536504
q 9.8577863E-05
a 0.9197228934
k -0.1792306583
MSY 1583170.5244