Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Plastics in The Global Environment Assessed Through Material Ow Analysis, Degradation and Environmental Transportation
Plastics in The Global Environment Assessed Through Material Ow Analysis, Degradation and Environmental Transportation
H I G H L I G H T S G R A P H I C A L A B S T R A C T
A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Editor: Paromita Chakraborty Knowledge on environmental plastic emission and spatial and temporal accumulation is vital for the development of
successful mitigation strategies and risk assessments of plastics. In this study, emissions of both micro and macro plas-
Keywords: tic from the plastic value chain to the environment were assessed on a global level through a mass flow analysis (MFA).
Mass flow analysis All countries, 10 sectors, 8 polymers and 7 environmental compartments (terrestrial, freshwater or oceanic) are distin-
Plastic pollution
guished in the model. The results assess a loss of 0.8 million tonnes (mt) of microplastics and 8.7 mt of macroplastics to
Microplastics
Accumulation
the global environment in 2017. This is respectively 0.2 % and 2.1 % of plastics produced in the same year. The pack-
Degradation aging sector contributed most for macroplastic emissions, and tyre wear for microplastic emissions. With the MFA re-
Environment sults, accumulation, degradation and environmental transportation are considered in the Accumulation and dispersion
model (ADM) until 2050. This model predicts macro- and microplastic accumulation in the environment to 2.2
gigatonnes (Gt) and 3.1 Gt in 2050 respectively (scenario: yearly consumption increase of 4 %). This will be 30 %
less when a yearly production reduction of 1 % until 2050 is modeled to 1.5 and 2.3 Gt macro and microplastics respec-
tively. Almost 2.15 Gt of micro and macroplastics accumulate in the environment until 2050 with zero plastic produc-
tion after 2022 due to leakage from landfills and degradation processes. Results are compared to other modeling
studies quantifying plastic emissions to the environment. The current study predicts lower emissions to ocean and
higher emissions to surface waters like lakes and rivers. Non aquatic, terrestrial compartments are observed to accumu-
late most plastics emitted to the environment. The approach used results in a flexible and adaptable model that ad-
dresses plastic emissions to the environment over time and space, with detail on country level and environmental
compartments.
⁎ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: Anna.Schwarz@tno.nl (A.E. Schwarz).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162644
Received 30 October 2022; Received in revised form 31 January 2023; Accepted 1 March 2023
Available online 7 March 2023
0048-9697/© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
A.E. Schwarz et al. Science of the Total Environment 875 (2023) 162644
2
A.E. Schwarz et al. Science of the Total Environment 875 (2023) 162644
Fig. 1. Simplified visualization of the Mass Flow analysis model of plastics and their littering pathways to the environment and potential human exposure. Dotted lines
represent flows within the plastic value chain, dotted lines represent flows to the environment. Waste water treatment is abbreviated to WWT. Full model flows are
visualized in supplementary material C.
data from the OECD global plastics outlook dataset per region was used for construction plastics, which include abrasion and wear of 1 % to
2017 (OECD, 2022). When country specific data was not available, the microplastics, are based on the full lifetime. For the yearly MFA, these
available regional datasets were scaled to country using the Gross Domestic are therefore divided over 35 years (Table 2). In the ADM, lifetimes
Product (GDP). Flows covering export and import of plastic polymers, prod- are addressed differently and are discussed in Section 2.4.
ucts and waste were excluded from the assessment. The availability of im-
port and export data of plastic and other materials on a global scale is 2.3. Mass flow analysis- flows
currently lacking which makes it difficult to include this type of data. How-
ever, the authors are aware of the potential significant role of import and 2.3.1. Country dependent flows
export on plastic production, consumption and waste management data. The plastic flows, representing emissions to the environment, from the
A division of plastics into polymer type and sector was made using available MFA of Kawecki and Nowack, 2019 are specific for Switzerland. To make
datasets (EUROMAP, 2016; Geyer et al., 2017; PlasticsEurope, 2018). Miss- the model applicable to all countries, the flows were divided between coun-
ing data points were added using single and multiple regression analyses try dependent flows and standardized flows. The country dependent flows
further described in supplementary material A. Several sectors were not ad- are variable depending on circumstances in a specific country. The data col-
dressed separately in the MFA from Kawecki and Nowack (2019) and were lection for the country dependent flows and data gap standardizations are
included. These include: consumption of rubber tyres, plastics in personal discussed in supplementary material B. The flows that were made country
care and cosmetic products (PCCP) and fishing gear. For these sectors, sep- dependent are listed below.
arate assessments on consumption data were included in the MFA. Missing
flows that were included are emissions from production, recycling, packag- 1. Municipal plastic waste collection rates
ing use. The background on the plastic consumption calculations per coun- 2. Municipal plastic waste treatment - Landfill
try are elaborated in supplementary material A. 3. Municipal plastic waste treatment - Incineration
4. Municipal plastic waste treatment - Recycling and re-use
2.2.1. Correction for lifetime 5. Wastewater treatment
Plastic product lifetimes depend on use of the products, strongly linked 6. Sludge treatment and application
to the sector in which the plastic is used. For several plastic products in sec- 7. Tyre abrasion, infill and road types
tors, especially in automotive, electronical equipment and construction, the
time that products are in use, or the lifetime, exceeds one year. As a result, 2.3.2. Standardized flows; production, manufacturing and transportation
the plastic remains ‘in stock’ and is released as waste after multiple years. During production, manufacturing and transportation, emissions to the
An annual MFA, without corrections for stocks and product lifetimes, environment occur. Emissions in the production phase are included in the
doesn't assess the emissions on a yearly basis but on a lifetime (cohort) model of Kawecki and Nowack, 2019, and were assumed to have a value
basis instead. This can result in a biased view on the emissions from a sec- between 0.0001 and 0.01 %. These loss values during production and trans-
tor, especially in end of life. For example, specific construction plastics have port were adapted using literature values and are summarized in supple-
a lifetime of 35 years on average, and a product produced in 2017 is re- mentary material C. These quantities were assumed to be excluded from
leased for end of life in 2052. Plastics in the packaging sector produced in the consumption quantities reported by the OECD. With this approach,
2017 is also released in 2017 due to the lifetime <1 year. To correct for emissions during production are allocated to the country where the plastic
product lifetime, the plastics associated with a specific sector are averaged product is consumed. Higher use phase emissions occur in countries with a
to a yearly emission, where it is assumed that all plastic products within a high plastic production, while these do not occur in the country that import
sector have similar lifetimes. This approach results in generalized lifetimes most of their plastics. In the current MFA model, plastic emissions prior to
which apply on average to products within the sector, a similar approach the use phase are assigned to the country of consumption, however these
was applied by Geyer et al., 2017 (Table 2). The lifetime correction was ap- emissions could be assigned to the country of production in order to assess
plied to waste treatment and emissions that occur during production, use the spatial distribution of these plastics more accurately. What country is re-
phase and the end of life. For example, the flows during the use phase of sponsible for the occurring plastic emissions to the environment along the
3
A.E. Schwarz et al. Science of the Total Environment 875 (2023) 162644
Table 1
Defined end compartments for both microplastic (MP) and macroplastics. Types that are included are three types of environment, compartments where plastics is ‘stored' and
can be leaked from, and technical end compartments where plastics receive either a second life or are eliminated.
End compartment name Type Description
value chain is a discussion that has to be executed, since the of these emis- These flows to the environment are fully covered in supplementary mate-
sions occur might vary. Furthermore, it was assumed that the emissions in rial C. From littering and through other flows, both micro and macro plastic
the phase prior to the use face are similar for all polymers. These loss rates potentially end up in surface water and wastewater flows. In various coun-
might vary depending on polymer type, production method and transport tries, wastewater treatment is available. The degree of wastewater treat-
distances. However, little information is available on pre- production and ment and hence micro and macroplastic removal from Industry and
how this varies per process and polymer type, which is why similar flow Wastewater is assessed per country (Peano, 2020). Additionally, sludge is
data for all sectors and polymers is applied. used for various applications, including agricultural and natural land fertil-
ization. A country based estimate on sludge application is used which is
2.3.3. Standardized flows; use phase elaborated in supplementary material C.
During the use phase of products, microplastics are released to the envi-
ronment due to abrasion, wear and tear of materials. These microplastic 2.3.5. Standardizes flows; human uptake and exposure
emissions are included in the MFA for several products, including textiles, Human exposure was modeled to identify the main sources and origi-
packaging, agricultural foils and construction plastics. Most of these were nating sectors of potential human intake of microplastics. Two pathways
already included in the model of Kawecki and Nowack, (2019). Packaging were included, through indoor and outdoor air to lungs, and through inges-
microplastic release and tyre abrasion were included as well. Additionally, tion to intestines. From these human compartments, fractions are assumed
macroplastic emissions occur during the use phase and include all emis- to be potentially taken up in human tissue. In supplementary material C, a
sions related to littering. Littering was kept limited to the packaging and ag- description of the assumptions is given.
ricultural sector, and are similar to Kawecki and Nowack, (2019).
Additionally, emissions from fishing gear to the ocean were included. All 2.3.6. Missing flows
loss quantities defined in the flows cover the full lifetime of the products Excluded in the assessment are emissions from marine coatings, paint
and are allocated to the country the plastics are produced in. This includes and road abrasion. Also, polymer diversity within sectors are limited to
fishing gear, which most likely will occur in international waters. All added eight polymers which are most widely used, together covering about
flows are summarized in supplementary material C. 73 % of polymers used in the EU (PlasticsEurope, 2019). Any plastics
from other polymers, such as engineering plastics and high-end plastics,
2.3.4. Standardized flows; end-of-life
The plastic emissions during end-of-life are adapted for municipal waste
Table 2
as waste practices are variable per country. All plastic from different sectors
Lifetimes of sectors and subsectors that are defined in the model. Sources: (Geyer
are collected through their respective waste collection system. For mixed
et al., 2017; Jan Kole et al., 2017).
waste collection for municipal waste, adaptations were possible with data
provided by the World Bank (Kaza et al., 2018). This dataset also provides Sector Product examples Estimated lifetime
(average and spread in years)
information on collection for waste from other sectors, such as electronics,
construction and agriculture. However, this data was found to be too lim- Automotive Composites, dashboards 13
Electrical equipment Computer parts, 8 (6–10)
ited to use for a global assessment and skewed to specific countries.
fridge parts, cables
Hence, this was left similar to original MFA, hereby risking underestimation Construction Isolation plastic, pipes 35 (28–42)
of end of life waste from these sectors as it is assumed that waste treatment Agriculture Pipes, films, nets 1 (0.5–1.5)
in Switzerland has higher recycling and recovery rates than the global aver- Packaging Bottles, films 1 (0.5–1.5)
Other plastics Household products 3 (2–4)
age. The statistics of The World Bank do provide uncollected waste fraction
Textiles Clothing, geotextiles 5 (4–6)
of municipal waste per country based on the statistic ‘total waste not col- Tyres Car and lorry tyres 6 (5–7)
lected’. From this uncollected fraction, there are flows towards the environ- Fishery equipment Nets 3
ment. From the actual collected waste, several waste management options (part of agriculture)
are available and depend on the country. Per country, collected waste is ei- Primary microplastics Microbeads 1 (0.5–1.5)
(PCCP) (part of others)
ther recycled, landfilled (sanitary, unsanitary, open dump) or incinerated.
4
A.E. Schwarz et al. Science of the Total Environment 875 (2023) 162644
are excluded in the assessment as these are used in smaller quantities within transport from compartments defined in the MFA. In terms of transport, it
the sectors. These polymers are mostly used in medical applications, textiles is known that plastics are displaced from land to freshwater, and back.
(e.g. nylon), electronic equipment (e.g. polycarbonates) and the automotive Both these processes are strongly affected by type of land, weather condi-
sector (PlasticsEurope, 2019). Due to the higher production costs of these tions, and flood frequencies (Liro et al., 2020; Mellink et al., 2022;
plastics, emissions are likely lower compared to cheaper, commodity plas- Roebroek et al., 2021). Additionally, plastics can be stored within rivers
tics. Furthermore, polymers of these plastics are found in limited quantities in vegetation or sediment (Van Emmerik and Schwarz, 2019). This depends
in the environment (Schwarz et al., 2019). on effects of plastic properties such as density and shape, but also biofilm,
formation aggregation with sediment, human activity and presence of veg-
2.4. Accumulation and dispersion model (ADM) etation and structures (Amaral-Zettler et al., 2021; Kaiser et al., 2017; Liro
et al., 2020; Rangel-Buitrago et al., 2021; Schreyers et al., 2021; Schwarz
2.4.1. Modeling framework et al., 2019). Even microplastics are found to retain in river sediments,
The accumulation and dispersion model (ADM) was developed to assess especially high density polymers and in low stream velocity locations (He
micro and macro plastic accumulation over time in the environment. An ad- et al., 2021; Koutnik et al., 2021b; Nizzetto et al., 2016). However,
ditional set of coefficients was developed to include three types of plastic microplastics are transported further and faster than macroplastic, and
behavior in the environment: also fibers are found to be more easily transported than fragments
(He et al., 2021; Koutnik et al., 2021a). A fraction of plastics is transported
– Dispersion in the environment, from one environmental compartment
from freshwater to oceanic environments (Meijer et al., 2021). Here, plas-
to another
tics can remain afloat, beach, or sink to sediments (Kaandorp et al.,
– Degradation from macro to microplastics in the environment
2020). These rates are affected by biofilm formation and particle properties
– Degradation and macroplastic emissions from stored plastics; open
as well as oceanic and sea currents (De La Fuente et al., 2021; Kaandorp
dumps, controlled landfills and sanitary landfills
et al., 2020; van Sebille et al., 2015). With literature information available,
estimated on plastic transportation in the environment are made, focusing
The removal of micro and nanoplastics due to mineralization or sedi- on plastic transport between freshwater and oceanic compartments for
mentation is left out of scope due to missing data and information on the both micro and macroplastics (Table 3). Transport from terrestrial environ-
timeframe, quantities and formation of intermediate products in the envi- ments to freshwater and oceanic environments is excluded from the ADM
ronment (Baensch-Baltruschat et al., 2021; Du et al., 2021). The input for due to lack of available data. Environmental fate assumptions for the
the ADM is the output of the yearly MFA model for the year 2017. The model are fully described in supplementary material D.
mass input per year is scaled based on the production of plastics. For the With that, also degradation rates and effects of the environment on deg-
years 1950–2022, production data is known (Geyer et al., 2017; Plastics radation speed have been studied, but studies are still limited in numbers.
Europe, 2018). For 2022–2050, growth factors are used based on future From available studies and data, assumptions were made on degradation
scenarios (see Section 2.4.3). The total mass within the end compartment speeds in different environment. Terrestrial, freshwater and marine
is a result of the following sum: compartments were distinguished, and a link is made to UV and no UV
exposure, which is found to be one of the main degradation mechanisms
!
X
N X
N for plastics (Chamas et al., 2020). Degradation processes are described
M Ci ;y ¼ ACi ;y þ M Ci ;y−1 1− DCi ;Cj þ M Ck ;y−1 DCk ;Ci in supplementary material D.
j¼1 k¼1
where there are N compartments, and i, j and k are indices = 1, 2, …, N re- 2.4.3. Future scenarios
ferring to compartments 1 to N, and where To model the future situation after 2022, three scenarios for plastic pro-
duction are assumed. In the first scenario, the business-as-usual growth in
ACi ,y is the added mass from input (from MFA model) in compartment Ci plastic production is used, where plastic production and consumption con-
at year y. tinues to grow as in 2010–2020, which is 4 % yearly (OECD, 2022). No
M Ci ,y is the mass in compartment Ci at year y. changes in composition of polymers and sectors are assumed for this sce-
DCi ,Cj is the degradation coefficient from compartment Ci to nario. In the second scenario, a plastic reduction scenario is applied with
a 1 % decrease in plastic consumption. This scenario assumed limitations
compartment Cj.
on plastic production by policy, such as the EU single plastic ban (EU,
Where the total (t) mass in compartment x (Cx) in year y is the sum of
2021). In the last scenario, a strict zero plastic production scenario is
new (n) mass added to the compartment that year (Cxn,y), the mass in com-
assessed, where plastic production equals zero after 2022. Plastics already
partment C from the previous year (Cx,y-1) which still remains in the com-
accumulated up to that point and in use by society will remain as such.
partment after degradation and dispersion processes have taken place on
this mass. For lifetime, it is assumed that plastic products will be in use
until the lifetime has elapsed, after which the material enters the end-of- 3. Results
life. Like the MFA, the ADM was developed using python v3.10.1.
3.1. Plastic emissions per country
2.4.2. Environmental transport and degradation processes
Due to their lightweight properties, plastics have a high tendency to be The global MFA resulted in a total plastic emission of 0.8 million tonnes
transported and dispersed through the environment. Within a yearly MFA, (mt) of microplastics and 8.7 mt of macroplastics entering the environment
the transport through the environment is difficult to assess. Therefore, the in 2017. Respectively, this corresponds to 0.2 % and 2.0 % of global plastic
legacy of emitted plastics and location of accumulation zones in environ- consumption in 2017 (432 mt). Full flowcharts of the MFA are available in
mental compartments are not properly identified. Furthermore, level of supplementary material E. There is a strong variation in quantities of plastic
degradation is highly dependent on the type of environment due to differ- lost to the environment per country, both for macro and microplastics
ences in UV exposure, mechanical degradation potential, and presence of (Fig. 2a and b). For macroplastics, most plastics are leaked from Southeast
bacteria. For the environmental transport, much information is still lacking Asian countries, of which most are lost in China, India, Thailand and
on how macro and microplastics are transported throughout the environ- Indonesia. Also larger countries with high population and high income
ment. A multimedia modeling approach can be used to assess fate of parti- have high macroplastic emissions, including United states, Russia and
cles and chemicals in the environment, including plastics (Koelmans et al., Italy. Microplastic emissions are highest in higher income countries (HIC)
2019). This modeling approach can be used to assess environmental and upper middle income countries (UMC), including USA, China, Japan
5
A.E. Schwarz et al. Science of the Total Environment 875 (2023) 162644
Table 3
Environmental transport of plastics between freshwater and oceanic environments, for both microplastics and macroplastics. Assumptions and literature are discussed in sup-
plementary material D.
From and to compartments Percentage division over compartments
and several European countries. Also Brazil, India, Thailand and Russia up in residential soil and in surface waters through stormwater drainage
have high emissions of microplastics to the environment. (Fig. 3b). Although the fishery sector has a relatively low plastic consump-
To investigate the contribution per sector, the results were analyzed tion, the emissions of macroplastic to the oceanic environment has a contri-
based on global income class of the country (Kaza et al., 2018). For bution of about 6 % of total macroplastics lost. For microplastics, most
macroplastics, mainly packaging plastics (90 %) and other plastic products emissions are caused by tyre wear (Fig. 4a). These are mostly emitted to
(5 %) end up into the environment, especially in Upper middle income roadsides, but in smaller quantities to surface water and natural soil, as
countries (UMC) and Lower middle income countries (LMC) (Fig. 3a). these microplastic are transported through air as well. A similar pattern is
LMC and UMC plastic emissions are higher compared to low income coun- visible as for macroplastics, as HIC and UMC have higher consumption
tries (LIC) and high income countries (HIC). This is a result from two numbers and hence higher microplastic emissions. Additionally, the agri-
factors. The first factor is a higher plastic consumption due to higher eco- cultural sector contributes to the total microplastic emissions, where film
nomic activities and GDP. This in combination with poor waste manage- degradation contribute most (7 %). Also packaging degradation is signifi-
ment, including low collection rates and mismanaged waste, results in cant in HIC and UMC countries. In total, automotive, construction and
significant plastic emissions to the environment. For HIC, waste collection EEE plastic contribute in small amounts to total plastic emissions for both
is high and macroplastic emissions are mostly from littering of packaging micro and macroplastics (>1 %). It should be considered that automotive,
and agricultural plastics. However, end-of-life of products from industrial EEE and construction plastic have a longer lifetime and have more value, re-
sectors is not properly mapped in this study, resulting in lower emissions sulting in lower emissions in the yearly assessment. Additionally, the swiss
and likely an underestimation from these sectors. In LIC and LMC, emis- based waste management for automotive, construction and EEE which is
sions mostly originate from the non-collected waste fraction, which end used for all countries, could lead to an underestimation of plastic emissions
Fig. 2. Plastic emissions to the environment in 2017 for 241 countries, on a logarithmic scale. a) macroplastic emissions. b) microplastic emissions (MP).
6
A.E. Schwarz et al. Science of the Total Environment 875 (2023) 162644
Fig. 3. Macroplastic emissions to the environment, per sector, environmental compartment and per country type. A) per sector, based on the mean value per income class
(Kaza et al., 2018) B) sum of all lost plastic per environmental compartment.
7
A.E. Schwarz et al. Science of the Total Environment 875 (2023) 162644
Fig. 4. Microplastic emissions (MP) to the environment, per sector, environmental compartment and per country type. A) per sector, based on the mean value per income class
(Kaza et al., 2018) B) sum of all lost plastic per environmental compartment.
8
A.E. Schwarz et al. Science of the Total Environment 875 (2023) 162644
Fig. 5. Accumulation of a) macroplastics and b) microplastics (MP), from 1950 to 2050, divided by the final environmental compartment the plastics end up, including
transport between the compartments. No degradation processes for microplastic is included in the analysis.
9
A.E. Schwarz et al. Science of the Total Environment 875 (2023) 162644
Table 4
Summary of studies assessing plastic emission to the environment and comparison to the current study with values in the final column.
Study Scope Value of study (in tonnes) Value from current study (tonnes)
(Ryberg et al., 2019) Global, all compartments 6.2 mt macroplastics (CI: 2.0–20.4 mt) 8.7 mt Macroplastic
3.0 mt. microplastics (CI: 1.5–5.2 mt) 0.8 mt Microplastic in 2017
(Lobelle et al., 2022) Netherlands, beach and shoreline (riverbank) macroplastic 0.02 kt on beaches 0.35 kt on beaches
0.08 kt on shoreline 2.01 kt on shoreline
(Navarre et al., 2022) Netherlands, packaging only, including export of waste 6.5 kt to oceans 11.2 kt to the environment (in NL)
(Kawecki and Nowack, 2019) Switzerland, excluding rubber 4.42 kt macroplastic 28.42 kt macroplastic
0.60 kt microplastic for all polymers combined 3.98 kt microplastic
for all polymers combined (excluding rubber)
(Sieber et al., 2020) Rubber from tyres, Switzerland, including accumulation 8.227 kt per year 3.4 kt per year
218 kt accumulated since 1988
(Luan et al., 2022) China, all compartments, excluding rubber 12.7 mt macroplastic 1.09 mt macroplastics
0.35 mt microplastic 0.03 mt microplastic in 2017
(Meijer et al., 2021) Plastics in rivers to ocean 1.75 mt (Average of 0.8–2.7 mt) 0.92 mt from surface waters to ocean.
(Borrelle et al., 2020) Global, aquatic environments 21 mt (Average of 19–23 mt) in 2030 16.1
mt ‘new’ plastics to aquatic compartments
in 2030
(Jambeck et al., 2015) Global, land (50 km coastline) to ocean in 2015 8.75 mt (Average of 4.8–12.7 mt) 1.8 mt ‘new’ plastics to ocean in 2015
10
A.E. Schwarz et al. Science of the Total Environment 875 (2023) 162644
Lobelle et al., 2022, the current study predicts significantly higher quanti- perspective of plastic pollution and impacts from ocean to freshwater and
ties on shoreline and beaches in 2020. This means that either fewer plastics terrestrial environments.
end up on river shorelines than predicted by the ADM, or additional trans-
portation methods are in place that transport plastics from these environ- 4.2. Uncertainties and limitations of the model outcomes
mental compartments elsewhere. The ADM model predicts accumulation
of plastics in these compartments, and except for degradation, no In this study, a yearly MFA modeling approach was used to model plas-
removal processes for plastics are included. The observational data tic emissions to the environment, with an additional transport and accumu-
highlights these transport processes, including burial in sediments, lation model, the ADM. However, often few data points on emissions of
cleanup, re-introduction in waterways and sinking. Floods can have a plastics to the environment are available. With that, these values often
significant impact on plastics on shorelines, and should be mapped occur with high uncertainties and large spreads, both temporal and spa-
properly per country to assess the mechanism of floods on plastic trans- tial. Due to the lack of data points, the spread and uncertainty on a
port (Roebroek et al., 2021). Furthermore, influx from Germany and global level are not included in this study. Therefore, the values pre-
Belgium is not taken into account in the ADM, which means that plastic sented in this study do not include uncertainty estimates, as uncertainty
mass along shorelines should be higher in observational data than pre- results often in over 50 % more or less as shown in other studies
dicted. Through item identification, it was observed that along Dutch (Kawecki and Nowack, 2019; Ryberg et al., 2019). The results therefore
rivers, a significant quantity (>55 %) of large fragments which could lack uncertainty assessments and should not be treated as facts but as an
not be related to consumer packaging are identified (Van Emmerik average approximation based on probabilities, to show contribution of
et al., 2020). This might indicate an underestimation from industrial different compartments and accumulation zones. Before this can
plastics in the model as the ADM predicts >95 % contribution of the occur, more observational and measurement studies on plastic emis-
packaging sector. sions, transport, degradation and accumulation are required for more
Navarre et al., 2022 assessed the plastic emissions from Dutch consumer accurate model estimates and validation.
packaging waste, which is about 40 % of plastics used in the Netherlands With that, some of the key transfers of plastic pollution have very lim-
(Navarre et al., 2022). However, export of plastic waste is included in this ited data points in terms of emission to the environment. Several model
study, where waste is processed in different countries with different (mostly flows with highest uncertainty and missing data are highlighted. One of
poorer) waste management systems. Mapping export of waste results in these is the uncertainty around the end of life of more industrial sectors. In-
lower emissions of packaging to the oceanic environments compared to dustrial waste from agriculture, construction, automotive and EEE are more
the full environment in the current study (Navarre et al., 2022). The likely to be collected separate from municipal waste. However, accurate
study of Navarre et al., 2022 lacks detail in emission to different envi- waste treatment options are often unclear for these sectors. This lack of
ronmental compartment, and assumes 25 % of mismanaged waste to data skews the results significantly to municipal waste, and as a results,
ocean, similar to Jambeck et al., 2015. More recent studies have the blame and responsibility of plastic pollution is pushed towards con-
shown that transfers of plastic from land to ocean are significantly sumers and governments, while industrial sectors may play a more signifi-
lower (Kaandorp et al., 2020; Kawecki and Nowack, 2019; Meijer cant role than predicted. Additionally, fate of uncollected waste and
et al., 2021; Onink et al., 2021). This precision of environmental emissions from (un) controlled landfills to the environments are poorly
compartment in line with state of the art research is included more accu- studied but expected to be significant, especially from open dump locations.
rately in the ADM. As a result, lower emissions to oceanic compartments In the ADM, values used are assumptions based on expert guesses and as-
and higher transfers to soil and freshwater aquatic compartments are sumptions done in literature. Furthermore, flows are limited to 8 polymers
observed. Borelle et al., 2020 included plastic emissions to all aquatic and few sectors and the MFA and ADM exclude accuracy on polymer types,
environments and has an estimate higher compared to the ADM. In aquaculture sources, marine coatings, paint and road abrasion. Accurate
the current study, it is assumed that 70 % of mismanaged and uncol- data on polymer use, and sectors will improve and likely increase emission
lected waste are burned through open burning, which results in lower estimates. Environmental transport of plastics, including fate, degradation,
emissions to the environment. An alternative explanation is that poten- sinking and more, are simplified and not country specific. Accuracy can be
tially, plastics beach and sink quicker than previously assumed and this improved per country depending on natural data, climate and available en-
environmental transport is often not addressed in (yearly) emission vironmental compartments are to be included. The last and likely most sig-
studies. This is in line with studies that assess significant removal of nificant flows that are not included in the model are import and export
floating ocean plastics towards beaches, shoreline and sediments plastic products and waste. As shown in Navarre et al., 2022 and when com-
(Kaandorp et al., 2020; Koelmans et al., 2017; Onink et al., 2021). pared to results from Kawecki and Nowack, 2019, export of plastic waste
Interestingly, almost all studies summarized in Table 4 focus on aquatic can have significant impact on the plastic emission estimates for a country.
environments. Soil ecosystems and impacts on terrestrial ecosystems of Consumption data of a country does not equal the production data, and the
both micro and macroplastics have been studied significantly less com- highly globalized plastic market results in a difficult mapping of plastic
pared to both marine and riverine plastic pollution. According to the results emissions from the system and allocation to a specific country. In the
of the ADM, most micro and macroplastic pollution will be observed in soil current study, consumption data from the OECD, 2021 are used. However,
and terrestrial compartments. Studies that have addressed terrestrial plastic a lot of plastic products produced in China but are exported, and these plas-
pollution also show high levels of microplastics in residential soil, agricul- tics might be assessed as ‘consumption’ and hence the emission of the plas-
tural soil and negative effects on soil communities (Cohen et al., 2021; tic might not take place here although the model predicts so. This is a result
Rehm et al., 2021; Rillig and Bonkowski, 2018; Tian et al., 2022). This of improper definition of ‘consumption’ versus ‘production’, and unclear
study highlights the importance of including plastic pollution on land and import and export data for plastic, both raw materials, products and
effects to soil communities and terrestrial ecosystems. waste. It is likely HIC countries have a higher contribution to plastic emis-
To summarize, most studies that use a modeling approach to plastic pol- sions to the environment than predicted in the current study, and these
lution exclude variations in environmental compartment and the sensitivity emissions most likely occur in LMC and LIC countries (Navarre et al., 2022).
of transport of plastics in the environment. This results in variations among About the size of plastics, the model differentiates in size of plastics be-
studies in plastic emission estimates to different environments. Often, oce- tween micro (<5 mm) and macroplastic (>5 mm). The size of microplastic
anic plastic pollution is overestimated, while terrestrial plastic pollution is particles after degradation is key for various processes, including dispersion
overlooked. Furthermore, the effects of transport and degradation of plas- in water and air, and risk assessment for biota and human health. The size
tics are often not addressed. In this study, a modeling approach is presented and shape of microplastic formation through degradation varies strongly
that includes plastic emissions to the environment, degradation and trans- per polymer and product type, and therefore the degradation patterns
port. The results of this model present the importance of a shift in vary as well. Adding these dimensions such as the size classes and polymer
11
A.E. Schwarz et al. Science of the Total Environment 875 (2023) 162644
properties on degradation will improve the model significantly, especially microplastics on a local level can vary strongly. This depends also on
for the degradation and environmental fate modeling, as also mass, density local population and habits, environment characteristics, and economic
and buoyancy are affected (Waldschläger and Schüttrumpf, 2019). A link activity. Hence, if precise regional risk assessments are desired, more lo-
can be made to removal processes of microplastics, such as subsurface calized monitoring data and studies are required. For oceanic environ-
and sediment accumulation, nanoparticle formation and mineralization. ments, a risk assessment for microplastics was executed (Everaert
Due to uncertainty, mineralization and decay are excluded from the assess- et al., 2020). From this study, a minimal area is at risk, 0.52–1.62 % in
ment, but for more realistic results, these should be included in the assess- 2050 under business as usual. However, as this study shows, oceanic
ment. In conclusion, it should be noted that the model cannot give accurate environments are the environmental compartment with lowest total
predictions on total emissions per year at a local or regional level. However, microplastic quantities, as opposed to freshwater and terrestrial ecosys-
the model is very capable of identifying main sources of plastic pollution, tems which coincidentally also cover a smaller surface area on the
accumulation areas in the environment and hence can give insight in globe. For soil environments, risk assessments have shown considerable
most effective mitigation strategies. risk (Jacques and Prosser, 2021). With increasing plastic pollution in es-
pecially soil environments, environmental risks will likely increase.
4.3. Future outlook Hence, the ADM model can provide data input to support environment
based risk assessment studies in the future.
4.3.1. Mitigation strategies for plastic emissions
The three scenarios sketch the effect of reducing plastic consumption on 5. Conclusions
plastic emissions to the environment. From the results, significant plastic
pollution can be avoided through limiting the plastic production, showing In this study, a yearly MFA was used to estimate direct plastic emissions
a decrease of 30 % micro and macroplastic emissions in the reduction sce- to the environment from the value chain. Based on the yearly MFA,
nario compared to the Business as usual scenario. This results highlights the ADM was developed including plastic accumulation, degradation,
that with a significant growth of plastic production, effects of mitigation transport and dispersion in the environment until 2050. Globally, 0.8 mt
measures will likely be limited. This was also highlighted by Borelle of microplastics and 8.7 mt of macroplastics entered the environment in
et al., 2020 showing that a growth scenario for plastic products will be 2017. Packaging was the main contributing sector for macroplastics, and
the most important factor in plastic pollution quantities (Borelle et al., tyre wear for microplastics. Most macro and microplastics end up along
2020). Limiting plastic production can include but is not limited to a roadsides, natural and residential soils. Depending on the scenario chosen,
focus on circular plastics through rethinking products to multi-use, better micro and macroplastics accumulate in the environment to respectively
recycling, re-use and refurbishment. Additionally, also other potential mit- 2.2 Gt and 3.1 Gt (BAU) and 1.5 and 2.3 Gt (reduce) in 2050. With zero
igation strategies that affect parts of the life cycle of plastic products can be plastic production after 2022, 0.8 and 1.3 Gt macro and microplastics re-
assessed on effectiveness using probabilities in the MFA and ADM. This can spectively accumulated in the environment in 2050. Significant growth of
include the single use plastic ban, cleanups, material and design choices, fil- the plastic production sector will heavily contribute to the total quantities
ters in water and improved waste management systems. To address these of plastic lost to the environment. Reduction of plastic production until
mitigations, the sectors or products that are affected need to be mapped, 2050 will limit plastic pollution by >30 %. However, even with a strict
in combination with (yearly) effectivity and year of installation, which zero plastic production scenario, over 2.15 Gt of plastics will accumulate
can expand over a specific timeframe. The ADM can assess effective and in the environment, potentially posing risks to human and ecosystem
less effective mitigation strategies for plastic reduction in the environment health. Most micro and macro plastics will accumulate in natural soils,
can already be identified through tackling the most significant plastic loss subsurface soils, freshwater and ocean sediments. Most studies that
pathways. These include improving waste collection, addressing emissions use a modeling approach to estimate plastic emissions to the environ-
from open dumps, reducing tyre emissions and air filters to reduce exposure ment, the plastic accumulation, degradation and transport on a global
to human tissue. The zero emission scenario assessed highlights the impor- level are not addressed. This study presents a first outlook on plastic
tance of cleanups, as the legacy of littered (macro) plastics is significant. Im- accumulation and transport in the environment, which can be used to
portance of effective cleanups on terrestrial and freshwater environments is assess risks of plastic emissions to the environment, both over time
highlighted here. Additionally, cleanups are easiest when executed on these and in space addressing different environmental compartment.
environments. Once in freshwater and ocean sediments, or once degraded
to microplastics, cleanup efforts will become more difficult, expensive CRediT authorship contribution statement
and less efficient. In combination with costs, cost curves can be used
to assess mitigation costs against its effectiveness. A.E. Schwarz: Conceptualization, Methodology, Formal analysis,
Data curation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review
4.3.2. Applicability in risk assessments or concentration studies & editing. S.M.C. Lensen: Methodology, Formal analysis, Software,
The ADM estimates that in all scenarios, significant quantities of plastic Writing – review & editing. E. Langeveld: Conceptualization, Investiga-
will find its way to the environment by 2050, exposing not only humans but tion, Writing – review & editing. L.A. Parker: Data curation, Investiga-
also other organisms to microplastics. Exposure can result in health implica- tion, Writing – review & editing. J.H. Urbanus: Conceptualization,
tions and ecosystem impacts. Toxicity data such as used in REACH or ECHA Investigation, Writing – review & editing.
rely on concentration data, including lethal dose and effect dose. These
values are additionally used in life cycle impact studies through the UseTOX Data availability
software (Fantke et al., 2017). The results of the MFA and ADM are mass
based, aggregated to country level and environmental compartment. The Data is attached as 2 supplementary files (CSV)
model distinguished polymer type, which is relevant for risk assessment,
but still lacks sensitivity on shape and size of microplastics, which are Declaration of competing interest
also important parameters (Jacques and Prosser, 2021). Therefore, several
additional steps are required for concentration assessments for risk as- The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relation-
sessment utilization. Translation steps towards plastic emissions based ships which may be considered as potential competing interests:
on a grid level have to be developed to obtain concentration data for Anna Schwarz reports financial support was provided by TNO Circular
risk assessments. Potentially, available data on environmental compart- economy and environment. Anna Schwarz reports a relationship with
ment area (m2) per country can be used to improve these statistically. TNO Circular economy and environment that includes: employment, speak-
However, as this study focuses on a global outlook, concentrations of ing and lecture fees, and travel reimbursement.
12
A.E. Schwarz et al. Science of the Total Environment 875 (2023) 162644
Acknowledgement Geyer, R., Jambeck, J.R., Law, K.L., 2017. Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made -
Supplementary Information. Sci. Adv., 25–29 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1700782.
He, B., Smith, M., Egodawatta, P., Ayoko, G.A., Rintoul, L., Goonetilleke, A., 2021. Dispersal
This research was funded by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and and transport of microplastics in river sediments. Environ. Pollut. 279, 0–25. https://doi.
Climate Policy of the Netherlands in the demand-driven program Circu- org/10.1016/j.envpol.2021.116884.
Ivar do Sul, J., Costa, M.F., Silva-Cavalcanti, J.S., Barbosa De Araújo, M.C., 2018. Plastic De-
lar Economy. bris Retention and Exportation by a Mangrove Forest Patch. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
marpolbul.2013.11.011.
Appendix A. Supplementary data Jacques, O., Prosser, R.S., 2021. A probabilistic risk assessment of microplastics in soil
ecosystems. Sci. Total Environ. 757, 143987. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.
SCITOTENV.2020.143987.
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi. Jambeck, J.R., Geyer, R., Wilcox, C., Siegler, T.R., Perryman, M., Andrady, A., Narayan, R.,
org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162644. Law, K.L., 2015. Plastic waste inputs from land into the ocean. Am. Assoc. Adv. Sci.
347, 768–771. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1260352.
Jan Kole, P., Löhr, A.J., Van Belleghem, F.G.A.J., Ragas, A.M.J., 2017. Wear and tear of tyres:
References a stealthy source of microplastics in the environment. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health
14, 1265. https://doi.org/10.3390/IJERPH14101265 2017, Vol. 14, Page 1265.
Kaandorp, M.L.A., Dijkstra, H.A., Van Sebille, E., 2020. Closing the mediterranean marine
Amadei, A.M., Sanyé-Mengual, E., Sala, S., 2022. Modeling the EU plastic footprint: exploring floating plastic mass budget: inverse modeling of sources and sinks. Cite This Environ.
data sources and littering potential. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 178, 106086. https://doi. Sci. Technol. 54, 11980–11989. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c01984.
org/10.1016/J.RESCONREC.2021.106086. Kaiser, D., Kowalski, N., Waniek, J.J., 2017. Effects of biofouling on the sinking behavior of
Amaral-Zettler, L.A., Zettler, E.R., Mincer, T.J., Klaassen, M.A., Gallager, S.M., 2021. Biofoul- microplastics. Environ. Res. Lett. 12. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8e8b.
ing impacts on polyethylene density and sinking in coastal waters: a macro/micro tipping Kawecki, D., Nowack, B., 2019. Polymer-Specific Modeling of the Environmental Emissions of
point? Water Res. 201, 117289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2021.117289. Seven Commodity Plastics as Macro-and Microplastics. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.
Baensch-Baltruschat, B., Kocher, B., Kochleus, C., Stock, F., Reifferscheid, G., 2021. Tyre and 9b02900.
road wear particles - a calculation of generation, transport and release to water and soil Kaza, S., Yao, L.C., Bhada-Tata, P., Van Woerden, F., 2018. What a Waste 2.0. What a
with special regard to German roads. Sci. Total Environ. 752, 141939. https://doi.org/ Waste 2.0 A Glob. Snapshot Solid Waste Manag. to 2050. https://doi.org/10.
10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2020.141939. 1596/978-1-4648-1329-0.
Bai, M., Li, D., 2020. Quantity of plastic waste input into the ocean from China based on a ma- Koelmans, A.A., Kooi, M., Law, K., Van Sebille, E., 2017. All is not lost: fragmentation of plas-
terial flow analysis model1. Anthr. Coasts https://doi.org/10.1139/anc-2018-0028. tic at sea. Environ. Sci. Technol. 12, 114028.
Bergmann, M., Collard, F., Fabres, J., Gabrielsen, G.W., Provencher, J.F., Rochman, C.M., van Koelmans, A.A., Quik, J., Meesters, J., Verschoor, A., 2019. Multimedia Modeling of Nano-
Sebille, E., Tekman, M.B., 2022. Plastic pollution in the Arctic. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 3, and Microplastics in the Environment. 31, p. 6700. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-
323–337. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00279-8 2022 35. 319-61615-5.Meesters.
Borrelle, S.B., Ringma, J., Lavender Law, K., Monnahan, C.C., Lebreton, L., McGivern, A., Kooi, M., Besseling, E., Kroeze, C., Van Wezel, A.P., Koelmans, A.A., 2018. Modeling the
Murphy, E., Jambeck, J., Leonard, G.H., Hilleary, M.A., Eriksen, M., Possingham, H.P., fate and transport of plastic debris in freshwaters: review and guidance. Handbook
De Frond, H., Gerber, L.R., Polidoro, B., Tahir, A., Bernard, M., Mallos, N., Barnes, M., of Environmental Chemistry, pp. 125–152 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-
Rochman, C.M., 2020. Predicted growth in plastic waste exceeds efforts to mitigate plas- 61615-5_7.
tic pollution. Science 369, 1515–1518. https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIENCE.ABA3656. Koutnik, V.S., Leonard, J., Alkidim, S., DePrima, F.J., Ravi, S., Hoek, E.M.V., Mohanty, S.K.,
Boucher, J., Billard, G., Simeone, E., Sousa, J., 2020. The marine plastic footprint. The Marine 2021a. Distribution of microplastics in soil and freshwater environments: global analysis
Plastic Footprint https://doi.org/10.2305/iucn.ch.2020.01.en. and framework for transport modeling. Environ. Pollut. 274. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.
Candido, G.M., Santolia, F., De Melo, M.R.F., Dos Santos, G.A.B., 2006. Methodology of plastic ENVPOL.2021.116552.
parts development in the automotive industry. SAE Tech. Pap https://doi.org/10.4271/ Koutnik, V.S., Leonard, J., Alkidim, S., DePrima, F.J., Ravi, S., Hoek, E.M.V., Mohanty, S.K.,
2006-01-2626. 2021b. Distribution of microplastics in soil and freshwater environments: global analysis
Chamas, A., Moon, H., Zheng, J., Qiu, Y., Tabassum, T., Jang, J.H., Abu-Omar, M., Scott, S.L., and framework for transport modeling. Environ. Pollut. 274, 116552. https://doi.org/10.
Suh, S., 2020. Degradation rates of plastics in the environment. ACS Sustain. Chem. Eng. 1016/J.ENVPOL.2021.116552.
8, 3494–3511. https://doi.org/10.1021/ACSSUSCHEMENG.9B06635/ASSET/IMAGES/ Lebreton, L., Slat, B., Ferrari, F., Sainte-Rose, B., Aitken, J., Marthouse, R., Hajbane, S.,
LARGE/SC9B06635_0009.JPEG. Cunsolo, S., Schwarz, A., Levivier, A., Noble, K., Debeljak, P., Maral, H., Schoeneich-
Cohen, Q.M., Glaese, M., Meng, K., Geissen, V., Huerta-Lwanga, E., 2021. Parks and recrea- Argent, R., Brambini, R., Reisser, J., 2018. Evidence that the Great Pacific Garbage
tional areas as sinks of plastic debris in urban sites: the case of light-density microplastics Patch is rapidly accumulating plastic. Sci. Rep. 8, 4666. https://doi.org/10.1038/
in the City of Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Environments 9, 5. https://doi.org/10.3390/ s41598-018-22939-w.
ENVIRONMENTS9010005 2022, Vol. 9, Page 5. Lechner, A., Keckeis, H., Lumesberger-Loisl, F., Zens, B., Krusch, R., Tritthart, M., Glas, M.,
De La Fuente, R., Drótos, G., Hernández-García, E., López, C., Van Sebille, E., 2021. Sinking Schludermann, E., 2014. The Danube so colourful: a potpourri of plastic litter outnumbers
microplastics in the water column: simulations in the Mediterranean Sea. Ocean Sci. fish larvae in Europe's second largest river. Environ. Pollut. 188, 177–181. https://doi.
17, 431–453. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-431-2021. org/10.1016/J.ENVPOL.2014.02.006.
Derraik, J.G., 2002. The pollution of the marine environment by plastic debris: a review. Mar. Leslie, H.A., van Velzen, M.J.M., Brandsma, S.H., Vethaak, A.D., Garcia-Vallejo, J.J., Lamoree,
Pollut. Bull. 44, 842–852. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-326X(02)00220-5. M.H., 2022. Discovery and quantification of plastic particle pollution in human blood. En-
Deshpande, P.C., Philis, G., Brattebø, H., Fet, A.M., 2020. Using material flow analysis viron. Int. 163, 107199. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENVINT.2022.107199.
(MFA) to generate the evidence on plastic waste management from commercial fish- Liro, M., van Emmerik, T., Wyzga, B., Liro, J., Mikuś, P., 2020. Macroplastic storage and remo-
ing gears in Norway. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. X 5, 100024. https://doi.org/10. bilization in rivers. Water (Switzerland) 12, 22–29. https://doi.org/10.3390/
1016/j.rcrx.2019.100024. w12072055.
Du, H., Xie, Y., Wang, J., 2021. Microplastic degradation methods and corresponding degra- Lobelle, D., Shen, L., van Huet, B., van Emmerik, T., Kaandorp, M., Iattoni, G., Baldé, K., Law,
dation mechanism: research status and future perspectives. J. Hazard. Mater. 418, K.L., van Sebille, E., 2022. Knowns and unknowns of plastic waste flows in the
126377. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHAZMAT.2021.126377. Netherlands. SSRN Electron. J. https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.4050390.
van Emmerik, T., Kieu-Le, T.-C., Loozen, M., Oeveren, K., Strady, E., Bui, X.-T., Egger, M., Luan, X., Kou, X., Zhang, L., Chen, L., Liu, W., Cui, Z., 2022. Estimation and prediction of plas-
Gasperi, J., Lebreton, L., Nguyen, P.-D., Schwarz, A., Slat, B., Tassin, B., 2018. A method- tic losses to the environment in China from 1950 to 2050. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 184,
ology to characterize riverine macroplastic emission into the ocean. Front. Mar. Sci. 5. 106386. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESCONREC.2022.106386.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00372. Martin, J., Lusher, A., Thompson, R.C., Morley, A., 2017. The deposition and accumulation of
van Emmerik, T., Mellink, Y., Hauk, R., Waldschläger, K., Schreyers, L., 2022. Rivers as plastic microplastics in marine sediments and bottom water from the Irish continental shelf. Sci.
reservoirs. Front. Water 3. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2021.786936. Rep. 7, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11079-2.
Espi, E., Salmeron, A., A.F.-J. of P., 2006. . undefined, 2006Plastic Films for Agricultural Meijer, L.J.J., van Emmerik, T., van der Ent, R., Schmidt, C., Lebreton, L., 2021. More than
Applications. 22, pp. 85–102. https://doi.org/10.1177/8756087906064220 1000 rivers account for 80% of global riverine plastic emissions into the ocean. Sci.
journals.sagepub.com. Adv. 7. https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIADV.AAZ5803/SUPPL_FILE/AAZ5803_SM.PDF.
EU, 2021. EU single plastic ban [WWW Document]. 2021. URL https://environment.ec. Mellink, Y., van Emmerik, T., Kooi, M., Laufkötter, C., Niemann, H., 2022. The plastic path-
europa.eu/topics/plastics/single-use-plastics/eu-restrictions-certain-single-use- finder: a macroplastic transport and fate model for terrestrial environments. Front. Envi-
plastics_en#:~:text=From_3_July_2021%2C_single,made_of_oxo-degradable_plastic ron. Sci. 10, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.979685.
(accessed 12.12.22). Napper, I.E., Davies, B.F.R., Clifford, H., Elvin, S., Koldewey, H.J., Mayewski, P.A., Miner,
EUROMAP, 2016. Plastics Resin Production and Consumption in 63 Countries Worldwide K.R., Potocki, M., Elmore, A.C., Gajurel, A.P., Thompson, R.C., 2020. Reaching new
2009-2020, p. 80. heights in plastic pollution—preliminary findings of microplastics on Mount Everest.
Everaert, G., De Rijcke, M., Lonneville, B., Janssen, C.R., Backhaus, T., Mees, J., van Sebille, One Earth 3, 621–630. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ONEEAR.2020.10.020.
E., Koelmans, A.A., Catarino, A.I., Vandegehuchte, M.B., 2020. Risks of floating Navarre, N., Mogollón, J.M., Tukker, A., Barbarossa, V., 2022. Recycled plastic packaging
microplastic in the global ocean. Environ. Pollut. 267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. from the Dutch food sector pollutes Asian oceans. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 185,
envpol.2020.115499. 106508. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESCONREC.2022.106508.
Fantke, P., Bijster, M., Guignard, C., Hauschild, M.Z., Huijbregts, M.A.J., Jolliet, O., Kounina, Nizzetto, L., Bussi, G., Futter, M.N., Butterfield, D., Whitehead, P.G., 2016. A theoretical
A., Magaud, V., Margni, M., McKone, T.E., Posthuma, L., Rosenbaum, R.K., van de Meent, assessment of microplastic transport in river catchments and their retention by soils
D., van Zelm, R., 2017. USEtox 2.0 Documentation (Version 1). https://doi.org/10. and river sediments. Environ. Sci. Process. Impacts 18, 1050–1059. https://doi.org/
11581/DTU:00000011. 10.1039/c6em00206d.
13
A.E. Schwarz et al. Science of the Total Environment 875 (2023) 162644
OECD, 2022. Global Plastics Outlook. Glob. Plast. Outlook. https://doi.org/10.1787/ Schreyers, L., van Emmerik, T., Nguyen, T.L., Castrop, E., Phung, N.A., Kieu-Le, T.C.,
aa1edf33-en. Strady, E., Biermann, L., van der Ploeg, M., 2021. Plastic plants: the role of water hy-
Onink, V., Jongedijk, C.E., Hoffman, M.J., van Sebille, E., Laufkötter, C., 2021. LETTER • acinths in plastic transport in tropical rivers. Front. Environ. Sci. 9, 1–9. https://doi.
OPEN ACCESS Global simulations of marine plastic transport show plastic trapping org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.686334.
in coastal zones global simulations of marine plastic transport show plastic trapping Schwarz, A., van Emmerik, T., 2022. Deconstructing the plastic soup. Plast. Ocean,
in coastal zones. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 64053. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748- 77–98 https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119768432.ch3.
9326/abecbd. Schwarz, A.E., Ligthart, T.N., Boukris, E., van Harmelen, T., 2019. Sources, transport, and ac-
Peano, L., 2020. Pleastic Leak Project, Methodological Guidelines. Quantis and EA. cumulation of different types of plastic litter in aquatic environments: a review study.
PlasticsEurope, 2018. Plastics-The Facts 2018 An Analysis of European Plastics Production, Mar. Pollut. Bull. 143, 92–100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.04.029.
Demand and Waste Data. van Sebille, E., Wilcox, C., Lebreton, L., Maximenko, N., Hardesty, B.D., van Franeker,
PlasticsEurope, 2019. Plastics, the Facts. J.A., Eriksen, M., Siegel, D., Galgani, F., Law, K.L., 2015. A global inventory of
Ragusa, A., Notarstefano, V., Svelato, A., Belloni, A., Gioacchini, G., Blondeel, C., Zucchelli, E., small floating plastic debris. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 124006. https://doi.org/10.
De Luca, C., D’avino, S., Gulotta, A., Carnevali, O., Giorgini, E., 2022. Raman 1088/1748-9326/10/12/124006.
microspectroscopy detection and characterisation of microplastics in human breastmilk. Sieber, R., Kawecki, D., Nowack, B., 2020. Dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis of
Polymers (Basel) 14. https://doi.org/10.3390/POLYM14132700. rubber release from tires into the environment. Environ. Pollut. 258, 113573. https://
Rangel-Buitrago, N., Mendoza, A.V., Mantilla-Barbosa, E., Arroyo-Olarte, H., Arana, V.A., doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2019.113573.
Trilleras, J., Gracia, C.A., Neal, W.J., Williams, A.T., 2021. Plastic pollution on the Tian, L., Jinjin, C., Ji, R., Ma, Y., Yu, X., 2022. Microplastics in agricultural soils: sources,
Colombian central Caribbean beaches. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 162, 111837. https://doi.org/ effects, and their fate. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sci. Health 25, 100311. https://doi.org/
10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111837. 10.1016/J.COESH.2021.100311.
Rehm, R., Zeyer, T., Schmidt, A., Fiener, P., 2021. Soil erosion as transport pathway of Tramoy, R., Gasperi, J., Dris, R., Colasse, L., Fisson, C., Sananes, S., Rocher, V., Tassin, B.,
microplastic from agriculture soils to aquatic ecosystems. Sci. Total Environ. 795, 2019. Assessment of the plastic inputs from the Seine basin to the sea using statistical
148774. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148774. and field approaches. Front. Mar. Sci. 6, 151. https://doi.org/10.3389/FMARS.2019.
Rillig, M.C., Bonkowski, M., 2018. Microplastic and soil protists: a call for research. Environ. 00151/BIBTEX.
Pollut. 241, 1128–1131. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENVPOL.2018.04.147. Van Emmerik, T., Schwarz, A., 2019. Plastic Debris in Rivers. https://doi.org/10.1002/
Roebroek, C.T.J., Harrigan, S., Van Emmerik, T.H.M., Baugh, C., Eilander, D., Prudhomme, C., wat2.1398.
Pappenberger, F., 2021. Plastic in global rivers: are floods making it worse? Environ. Res. Van Emmerik, T., Roebroek, C., De Winter, W., Vriend, P., Boonstra, M., Hougee, M., 2020.
Lett. 16. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd5df. Riverbank macrolitter in the Dutch Rhine-Meuse delta. Environ. Res. Lett. 15. https://
Royer, S.-J., Ferrón, S., Wilson, S.T., Karl, D.M., 2018. Production of methane and ethylene doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb2c6.
from plastic in the environment. PLoS One 13, e0200574. https://doi.org/10.1371/jour- Waldschläger, K., Schüttrumpf, H., 2019. Effects of particle properties on the settling and rise
nal.pone.0200574. velocities of microplastics in freshwater under laboratory conditions. Environ. Sci.
Ryberg, M.W., Hauschild, M.Z., Wang, F., Averous-Monnery, S., Laurent, A., 2019. Global en- Technol. 53, 1958–1966.
vironmental losses of plastics across their value chains. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 151,
104459. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESCONREC.2019.104459.
14