SUBJECT

:MATHEMATICS
GRADE : 10

LESSON TOPIC:
PROBABILITY
DATE: 9 - 14 AUGUST 2022
 Focus : Probability

Saturday (14 AUGUST 2022) Tuesday (09 AUGUST 2022)

PROBABILITY PROBABILITY

Friday (13 AUGUST 2022)

PROBABILITY
2
CORE CONTENT TO BE CLARIFIED

BY THE END OF THE LESSON, LEARNERS NEED BE ABLE TO:

• Compare the relative frequency of events with the theoretical
probability.
• Use Venn diagrams as an aid to solving probability problems
• Understand and define mutually exclusive and complementary
events
• Apply the following for any two events A and B in sample space S:
▪ P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
 OUTCOMES FOR THIS TOPIC

IN THIS TOPIC THE FOCUSE WILL BE ON:

• Explaining the Basic Concepts, Terminology and Notation (Part 1)

• Calculating Probability (Part 2)

• Using Venn diagrams in Probability (Part 3)

 PART 1:

BASIC CONCEPTS,
TERMINOLOGY AND
NOTATION
 INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
• Probability measures how likely an event or outcome is. It is
the likelihood of something happening.
Examples:

• The probability that it will rain in Motherwell today is 0,3 = 30%

70
• The probability of contracting corona virus is = 70%
100
1
• The probability of winning the Lotto is = 0,000 007%
13 983 816

Probability can be reported as a fraction, decimal, percentage or

ratio.
INTRODUCTORY REMARKS…
The greater the probability, the more likely the event is to
occur.

Conversely, the smaller the probability, the less likely the

event is to occur.

In the previous examples, there is a strong probability

that you may contract corona virus, a reasonable chance
of rain in Motherwell today, but almost no chance of you
winning the Lotto.
 TERMINOLOGY

Experiment is a method of testing probability. It is the process whereby certain

physical actions are repeated many times to establish frequency (number of times)
that a particular event will occur. An example of an experiment is tossing a coin or
throwing a dice.

The number of times an experiment is carried out is known as a trial. A single

experiment normally involves many trials.
The results of each trial is called an outcome, e.g. heads (H) or tails (T) are the
two possible outcomes in the coin-flipping experiment.
 TERMINOLOGY

The list (set) of all possible outcomes is called the sample space. In coin-flipping
experiment, S = {H;T} is the sample space, while the subsets {H} and {T} are two
possible outcomes.
 TERMINOLOGY
An event is a set of specific outcomes (a subset of the sample space).
Outcomes of the event you are interested in are called favourable outcomes.
Examples:
List the sample space, event and favourable outcomes of the following
probability experiments:

a) Throw a dice and get a 6

b) Throw a dice and get an even number

c) Toss a coin and get a head (H)

 POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
a) The activity is throw a dice
The sample space is 1; 2; 3; 4; 5 and 6
The event you are interested in is get a 6
The favourable outcome is 6

b) The activity is throw a dice

The sample space is 1; 2; 3; 4; 5 and 6
The event you are interested in is to get an even number
The favourable outcomes are 2; 4; 6
 POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
a) The activity is tossing a coin

The sample space is heads (H) and tails (T)

The event you are interested in is getting a head (H)

The favourable outcome is head (H).

 TYPES OF EVENTS
An event is a set of specific outcomes (a subset of the sample space).

In grade 10 you are required to understand the following events:

A. Impossible events: have a probability of 0. An example of impossible

events would be obtaining a 10 when rolling a single die. Impossible
events are represented by a null or empty set.

They are written as follow:

A = {obtaining a 10 when rolling a die}
∴ 𝐴 = ∅ 𝑜𝑟 𝐴 = → 𝑛𝑢𝑙𝑙 𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑦 𝑠𝑒𝑡
 TYPES OF EVENTS…
B. Even Chance Events
Even events which have 50% chance (probability) or occurring.
Tossing a fair coin is an even chance events as there is 50% chance of
obtaining a head or tail.

C. Certain Events
Certain events have a probability of 1(100%). An example of a certain event is
that the sun will rise every morning in South Africa.

D. Mutually Exclusive (disjoint) Events

If two events are mutually exclusive it means that they cannot happen in the
same trial. In other words, they have no elements in common. Mutually
Exclusive events will be discussed in more details further in the chapter.
 TYPES OF EVENTS CONT…
E. Complementary Events

The complementary event of the set A is the same as not obtaining the
set A.
If the sample set S= { 1,2,3,4,5,6} and A is the subset A={1,5} then the
complement of set A is A’ = {2,3,4,6}

For two events to be complementary they have to be mutually exclusive.

 PROBABILITY SCALE
❖ Some events always happen. We say that they are certain to happen
and give them a probability of 1

❖It is certain that the day after Monday is Tuesday. The probability that the
day after Monday is Tuesday is 1

❖Some events never happen. We say that they are impossible and give
them a probability of 0.

❖If you throw an ordinary dice, it is impossible to get a 7. The probability

of getting a 7 when you throw an ordinary dice is 0.

❖ Some events are not certain, but are not impossible either. They may or
may not happen. These probabilities lie between 0 and 1.
 PROBABILITY SCALE
❖If you toss a fair coin it may land on heads or it may not. The chances
are equally likely.
We say that there is a 50-50 chance that the die will land on heads.

❖Below is how represent probability.

Percentage 0% 50% 100%

Decimal 0 0,5 1

Fraction
Words
 ACTIVITY 1
A regular six-sided fair dice is thrown once.

a) List the sample set.

b) How many elements are there in the sample set?

c) List all the favourable outcomes for getting a score of 3 or more.

d) How many favourable outcomes are there?

 ACTIVITY 1 SOLUTION

a) S= { 1,2,3,4,5, 6}

b) 6

c) 3,4,5, 6

d) N = 4
 PART 2:

CALCULATING
PROBABILITY
 THEORETICAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY
FORMULAE:
EXAMPLE 1
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS 1
POSSIBLE SOL CONT….
 EXAMPLE 2

EXAMPLE 2
DISCUSSION AREA
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS 2
 ACTIVITY 2

2.
 DISCUSSION AREA

2.
ACTIVITY 2 SOLUTIONS
ACTIVTY 3
ACTIVITY 3 SOLUTION
ACTIVITY 4
ACTIVITY 4 SOLUTION
ACTIVITY 5
ACTIVITY 5 SOLUTION
ACTIVITY 6
ACTIVITY 6 SOLUTIONS
 PART 3:

VENN DIAGRAMS
VENN DIAGRAM AND DRAWING IT
-It is a graphical way of representing the relationships between sets.

HOW DO WE DRAW IT???

DISCUSSING VENN DIAGRAM
EXAMPLE
SOLUTION
SOLUTION
INTERPRETING VENN DIAGRAMS
ACTIVITY
SOLUTION
SOLUTION CONT..
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENT
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
 MUTUALLY INCLUSIVE EVENTS
(DIAGRAMATIC REPRESENTATION)
EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS
COMPLENTARY EVENTS
EXAMPLE VENN DIAGRAM
DISCUSSION AREA
 SOLUTION

b) i) n(TՈR) = 3

ii) P(T)= 28 = 7
44 11
iii) P(T Ս R)= 42 = 21
44 22
iv) n (R’) = 25+2 =27
v) n(S)= 44
vi) n (Tor R) =28+17-3=42
SUMMARY OF RULES
SUMMARY CONT…
SUMMARY CONT..
SHADED REGION REPRESENTATION
ACTIVITY (NUMERICAL)
SOLUTION (NUMERICAL)
EXAMPLE (NUMERICAL)
DISCUSSION AREA
SOLUTION
ACTIVITY (VARIABLE)
DISCUSSION AREA
SOLUTION
SOLUTION CONT..
EXAM TYPE: EXAMPLE( RULES)
SOLUTION
SOLUTION
EXAM TYPE: ACTIVITY 1
SOLUTION 1
ACTIVITY 2
ACTIVITY 2 CONT
SOLUTION
ACTIVITY 3
SOLUTION
ACTIVITY 3

Which diagram represents mutually exclusive events?

SOLUTION

The last diagram or third venn diagram

ACTIVITY 4
SOLUTION
ACTIVITY 5
SOLUTION
ACTIVITY
SOLUTION
 Concluding Remarks

Following our today lesson, I Repeat this procedure until you are
want you to do the to: confident.

Read through what the learner need to

Do not forget: Practice makes
understand and master in your learner
perfect!
material.

Complete the activities

Attempt as many as possible other similar examples on your own from the
Text-Book and the past exam papers.
90
Thank you