Question 1

The AON network below shows various activities in the execution of the project in weeks;
a) Which are the critical bottleneck activities where any delays must be avoided to prevent
delaying project completion?
b) What is the total time required to complete the project if no delays occur?
c) For the other activities, how much delay can be tolerated without delaying project
completion?

[25 Marks]

a)
Critical path:
START A B C E F J L N FINISH

b) START A B C E F J L N FINISH
2 + 4 + 10 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 5 + 6 = 44 weeks
c)
Activity Slack (LF – On Critical Path
EF)
A 0 Yes

B 0 Yes

C 0 Yes

D 4 No

E 0 Yes

F 0 Yes

G 4 No
 H 4 No

I 2 No

J 0 Yes

K 1 No

L 0 Yes

M 4 No

N 0 Yes

Each activity with zero slack is on a critical path through the project network such that any
delay along this path will delay project completion.

START A B C E F J L N FINISH
Question 2

a) You have determined the process capability of a process and found that tolerance
proposed by the designer are tight and fear to produce some nonconforming product.
What action will you take to avoid scrap and rework?
b) What is the purpose of LCLp on a p-chart?
c) The following are 𝑋̅ and 𝑅 values for 20 subgroups of 5 readings, the specification limits
for the components are 40.37 ± 0.10. Assume the reasons for out-of-control points on 𝑋̅
and 𝑅 charts are known.
𝑋̅ 34.0, 31.6, 30.8, 33.0, 35.0, 33.2, 33.0, 32.6, 33.8, 37.8,
35.8, 38.4, 34.0, 35.0, 33.8, 31.6, 33.0, 28.2. 31.8, 35.6

𝑅 4, 4, 2, 3, 5, 2, 5, 13, 19, 6, 4, 4, 14, 4,7, 5, 5, 3, 9, 6

i. Establish the control limits for 𝑋̅ and 𝑅 charts. Will the product meet us
specification?
ii. What is the process capability?
iii. What is variance?
[25 Marks]

a) The best solution to avoid scrap and rework is to produce the work within tolerance limits.
Since the tolerance limits are tighter than process capability of 6𝜎 ′ , we should use more precise
method to reduce the value of 𝜎 ′ , and of course this will have a bearing on the production cost.
b) When a process makes less number of rejects than normally expected, it is a welcome situation.
More and more points will fall near the 𝐿𝐶𝐿𝑃 . But it may also be true that the process has not
changed but there is less relaxation in inspection and thereby number of rejects. In any case
the causes of low rejects are to be investigated. If the process has really changed to produce
less rejects, the changes in process must be studied for future control limits. If there is a
deliberate attempt on the part of the inspector to show less rejects, h must be warned to report
correctly.
c) Solution:
i.
34.0 + ⋯ + 35.6 671.0
𝑋̿ = = = 33.6
20 20
4 +⋯+ 6 124
𝑅̅ = = = 6.2
20 20
For subgroup of 5, Table B of Appendix A4 gives, 𝐴2 = 0.577, 𝐷3 = 0, 𝐷4 = 2.115

𝑋̅ − 𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑡

𝑈𝐶𝐿𝑋̅ = 𝑋̿ + 𝐴2 𝑅̅ = 33.6 + 0.577(6.2) = 37.2

𝐿𝐶𝐿𝑋̅ = 𝑋̿ − 𝐴2 𝑅̅ = 33.6 − 0.577(6.2) = 30.0

𝑅 − 𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑡

𝑈𝐶𝐿𝑅 = 𝐷4 𝑅̅ = 2.115 (6.2) = 13.11

𝐿𝐶𝐿𝑅 = 𝐷3 𝑅̅ = 0 (6.2) = 0

With the above control limits, 𝑋̅ values of 37.8, 38.4 and 28.2 will fall outside the control limits.
Since the reasons for these can be eliminated to get revised out of control of these points are
known, these point 𝑋̿.

671.0 − (37.8 + 38.4 + 28.2)

𝑋̿𝑅𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑑 = = 33.3
17
Similarly on R-chart, R value of 19 and 14 will fall outside the control limits. Eliminating these
points gives,

124.0 − (19 + 14)

𝑅̅ = = 5.06
18
Hence,
 𝑅̅𝑅𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑑 5.06
𝜎 ′ 𝑅𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑑 = = = 2.175
𝑑2 2.326

New control limits:

𝑋̅ − 𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑡

𝑈𝐶𝐿𝑋̅ = 𝑋̿ + 𝐴2 𝑅̅ = 33.3 + 0.577(6.2) = 36.2

𝐿𝐶𝐿𝑋̅ = 𝑋̿ − 𝐴2 𝑅̅ = 33.3 − 0.577(6.2) = 30.4

𝑅 − 𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑡

𝑈𝐶𝐿𝑅 = 𝐷4 𝑅̅ = 2.115 (5.06) = 10.7

𝐿𝐶𝐿𝑅 = 𝐷3 𝑅̅ = 0 (5.06) = 0
′
Since (𝑈 − 𝐿) < 6𝜎 , the process is not able to meet the specification.

ii. Process capability = 6𝜎 ′ = 6(2.175) = 13.05

iii. Variance = (𝜎 ′ )2 = (2.175)2 = 4.73

Question 3

A small project is composed of the following activities whose time estimates are given below
(estimated activity duration in weeks);

Activities 1-2 1-3 1-4 2–5 3-5 4–6 5-6

Optimistic 1 1 2 1 2 2 3

Most likely 1 4 2 1 5 5 6

Pessimistic 7 7 8 1 14 8 15

a) Draw the network and find the critical path

b) Find the expected duration and variance for each activity
c) Calculate the standard deviation of project length
d) What is the probability that the project will be completed
i. At least 4 weeks earlier than expected time?
ii. No more than 4 weeks later than expected time
iii. If the project duration due date is 19 weeks, what is the probability of not meeting
the due date?
 iv. Find the project duration at 95% probability
[25 Marks]
a)

Critical path: 1 - 3 - 5 - 7

b)

Expected Time 𝒕𝒆 Variance

Activity 𝑡𝑜 + 4𝑚 + 𝑡𝑝 (𝑡𝑝 − 𝑡𝑜 )
6 𝜎=
6

1–2 2 1

1–3 4 1

1–4 3 1

2–5 1 0

3–5 6 4

4–6 5 1

5–6 6 4

Expected time of the project = 4 + 6 + 7 = 17 weeks

c) Standard deviation of the project = Variance = 9 = 3 weeks

d) Probability
 i. 17 – 4 = 13 weeks
𝐷𝑢𝑒 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒−𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒 13−17
∴𝑍= = = −1.33
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑑𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 3

From the normal table, value of Z = -1.33 is 0.0918

Hence, the probability that the project will be completed 4 weeks earlier than expected time is
9.18%
21−17 4
ii. 𝑍= = = 1.33
3 3

Ref. to normal table, the value of Z = 90.82 %, i.e. the probability is 90.82%

iii. If the project due date is 19 weeks, probability of not meeting the schedule is
19 − 17 2
𝑍= = = 0.67
3 3
Ref. to normal table, the value of Z = 0.2514

∴ Probability of not meeting the schedule = 1 − 0.2514 = 𝟕𝟒. 𝟓𝟔%

iv. If the probability is 95%, Z value from the table = 1.65

𝑋 − 17
∴ 1.65 =
3
𝑿 = 𝟐𝟐 𝒘𝒆𝒆𝒌𝒔

Question 4

a) Why is it important to understand the environment in which the project takes place?
b) How are projects planned and controlled?
c) The following table gives the data on normal cost and time, crash cost and time for a
project. The indirect cost is N 50/week.
Activity Time (week) Normal Cost (N) Crash Cost (N) Cost (N)

1–2 3 300 2 400

2–3 3 30 3 30
2–4 7 420 5 580
2–5 9 720 7 810
3–5 5 250 4 300
4–5 0 0 0 0
 5–6 6 320 4 410
6–7 4 400 3 470
6–8 13 780 10 900
7–8 10 1000 9 1200

i. Draw the network diagram and label it.

ii. Identify critical path
iii. Find out normal project duration and corresponding cost
[25 Marks]

a) It is important for two reasons. First, the environment influences the way a project is
carried out, often through stakeholder activity. Second, the nature of the environment in
which a project takes place is the main determinant of the uncertainty surrounding it.
b) Project can be defined in terms of their objectives (the end state which project
management is trying to achieve), scope (the exact range of the responsibilities taken on
by project management), and strategy (how project management is going to meet the
project objectives).
c)
Activity ∆𝑻 ∆𝑪 ∆𝑪⁄
∆𝑻

1–2 1 100 100

Legend:
2–3 0 0 0
2–4 2 160 80
2–5 2 90 45
3–5 1 50 50
4–5 0 0 0
5–6 2 90 45
6–7 1 70 70
6–8 3 120 40
7–8 1 200 200

∆𝑻 = 𝑵𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒂𝒍 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆 − 𝑪𝒓𝒂𝒔𝒉 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆

 ∆𝑪 = 𝑪𝒓𝒂𝒔𝒉 𝒄𝒐𝒔𝒕 − 𝑵𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒂𝒍 𝑪𝒐𝒔𝒕

𝑪𝒐𝒔𝒕 𝒔𝒍𝒐𝒑𝒆 = ∆𝑪⁄∆𝑻

The critical path is

1 2 5 6 7 8

The project duration is 32 weeks. The cost of the normal project is the sum of direct and indirect
cost.

∴ Total project cost = Direct cost of all activities + Indirect cost of 32 weeks

= 4220 + 32 + 50 = N 5820

Tutorials 2
Question
1. Why is it important to understand the environment in which project takes place?
Hints: It is important for two reasons. First, the environment influences the way
a project is carried out, often through stakeholder activity. Second, the nature of
the environment in which a project takes place is the main determinant of the
uncertainty surrounding it.
2. What are the managerial decisions involved with implementation of a project?
3. How are projects planned and controlled?
Hints: Project can be defined in terms of their objectives (the end state which
project
management is trying to achieve), scope (the exact range of the responsibilities
taken on by
project management), and strategy (how project management is going to meet
the project
objectives).
4. Describe briefly three time estimate for PERT.