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Assignment On Forecasting
Assignment On Forecasting
The data on the tables below are the demand in dozens of doughnuts of Krispy Doughnuts for the past
six weeks, make a forecast for week 7 using 3 month moving average, exponential smoothing with an
alpha of 0.10, and linear trend.
Exponential Smoothing here, alpha = 0.10 3-week moving average here -------
Jan 200
(256x.10) +
(200x.90)=
205.60 287-205.6 =
March 287
81.40
(287x.10) + 282-
(200+256+287)/3
(205.6x.90)= 247.67=
282-213.74 = = 247.67
April 282 213.74 34.33
68.26
(282x.10) +
(256+287+282)/3 247-275=
(213.74x.90)=
247-220.57 = = 275 28
May 247 220.57
26.43
247x.10) +
(287+282+247)/3 252-272=
(220.57x.90)=
= 272 20
June 252 223.2 252-223 = 28.79
(252x.10) + (282+247+252)/3
(223.21x.90)= = 260.33
July
226.09
10. Using linear trend, what is the forecast for week 7? 276.8