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Assignment On Forecasting
Assignment On Forecasting
The data on the tables below are the demand in dozens of doughnuts of Krispy Doughnuts for the past
six weeks, make a forecast for week 7 using 3 month moving average, exponential smoothing with an
alpha of 0.10, and linear trend.
Exponential Smoothing here, alpha = 0.10 3-week moving average here -------
Jan 200
(256x.10) +
287-205.6
March 287 (200x.90)=
= 81.40
205.60
282-
(200+256+287)/3
(287x.10) + 247.67=
282-213.74 = = 247.67
April 282 (205.6x.90)= 34.33
68.26
213.74
(256+287+282)/3 247-275=
(282x.10) + = 275 28
247-220.57 =
May 247 (213.74x.90)=
26.43
220.57
247x.10) +
(287+282+247)/3
(220.57x.90)=
= 272 252-272=
June 252 223.2 252-223 = 28.79
20
(252x.10) + (282+247+252)/3
(223.21x.90)= = 260.33
July
226.09
10. Using linear trend, what is the forecast for week 7? 276.8