TUGAS 3 JAGAR ERWIN RIZNANDO TAMBUNAN

MANAJEMEN PERAWATAN PESAWAT UDARA 23622029

Quarter
Year Average
I II III IV
1 215 120 150 100 146.25
2 250 175 75 150 162.50
3 300 250 75 165 197.50
4 350 275 100 200 231.25
5 400 300 125 225 262.50
TUGAS 3 JAGAR ERWIN RIZNANDO TAMBUNAN
MANAJEMEN PERAWATAN PESAWAT UDARA 23622029

(a) Determine an appropriate seasonal index for each quarter.

Seasonal Index
Year Quarter
Total
I II III IV
1 1.47 0.82 1.03 0.68 4.00
2 1.54 1.08 0.46 0.92 4.00
3 1.52 1.27 0.38 0.84 4.00
4 1.51 1.19 0.43 0.86 4.00
5 1.52 1.14 0.48 0.86 4.00
Total 7.56 5.50 2.78 4.16 20.00
Average 1.51 1.10 0.56 0.83 4.00

(b) Deseasonalize the data and fit it to an appropriate growth model.

Deseasonalized Data
Year Quarter Forecast
Average Total
I II III IV
1 142.10 109.18 270.22 120.07 160.39 641.57
2 165.24 159.23 135.11 180.10 159.92 639.68
3 198.29 227.47 135.11 198.11 189.74 758.97
4 231.33 250.21 180.14 240.14 225.46 901.83
5 264.38 272.96 225.18 270.15 258.17 1032.68

(c) Predict the quarter value for the 6th and 7th years:
the function from linear regression to forecast (grow component):
X = 120.4 + 26.1t
YEAR 120.40 26.10
6 277.00
7 303.10
QUARTER FORECAST
Year X(t) = Id (120.4 + 26.1(t)
I II III IV TOTAL AVERAGE
6 419.09 304.44 153.77 230.70 1108.00 277.00
7 458.58 333.13 168.25 252.44 1212.40 303.10