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  • Excel D Đoán PL3

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    The document compares four different forecasting methods - forecasting by last value, averaging, moving average, and seasonal adjustment. It provides actual data values, forecasts made by each method, and the errors between forecasts and actual values for various quarters from 2019 to 2021. Based on the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean squared error (MSE) values shown, the document indicates that the seasonal adjustment method results in the lowest errors and is therefore the best forecasting method to use.

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    EXCEL DỰ ĐOÁN PL3

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    The document compares four different forecasting methods - forecasting by last value, averaging, moving average, and seasonal adjustment. It provides actual data values, forecasts made by each method, and the errors between forecasts and actual values for various quarters from 2019 to 2021. Based on the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean squared error (MSE) values shown, the document indicates that the seasonal adjustment method results in the lowest errors and is therefore the best forecasting method to use.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    6 views9 pages

    Excel D Đoán PL3

    Uploaded by

    kenkoro
    The document compares four different forecasting methods - forecasting by last value, averaging, moving average, and seasonal adjustment. It provides actual data values, forecasts made by each method, and the errors between forecasts and actual values for various quarters from 2019 to 2021. Based on the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean squared error (MSE) values shown, the document indicates that the seasonal adjustment method results in the lowest errors and is therefore the best forecasting method to use.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 9

    FORECASTING FORECASTING BY

    YEAR QUARTER DATA BY LAST-VALUE LAST-VALUE


    METHOD METHOD ERROR
    2019 1 242.00
    2019 2 282.00 244.00 38.00
    2019 3 254.00 284.00 30.00
    2019 4 345.00 256.00 89.00
    2020 1 253.00 347.00 94.00
    2020 2 290.00 255.00 35.00
    2020 3 262.00 292.00 30.00
    2020 4 352.00 264.00 88.00
    2021 1 270.00 354.00 84.00
    2021 2 286.00 272.00 14.00
    2021 3 271.00 288.00 17.00
    2021 4 378.00 273.00 105.00
    ESTIMATE FOR
    QUARTER
    SEASONAL FACTOR
    1 0.8780
    2 0.9848
    3 0.9033
    4 1.2339
    FORECASTING FORECASTING BY FORECASTING BY FORECASTING BY
    BY AVERAGING AVERAGING MOVING-AVERAGE MOVING-AVERAGE
    METHOD METHOD ERROR METHOD METHOD ERROR

    242.00 40.00
    262.00 8.00
    259.33 85.67
    280.75 27.75 280.75 27.75
    275.20 14.80 283.50 6.50
    277.67 15.67 285.50 23.50
    275.43 76.57 287.50 64.50
    285.00 15.00 289.25 19.25
    283.33 2.67 293.50 7.50
    283.60 12.60 292.50 21.50
    282.45 95.55 294.75 83.25
    MAD (LAST-VALUE METHOD) 56.73
    MSE (LAST-VALUE METHOD) 4,321.45

    MAD (AVERAGING METHOD) 35.84


    MSE (AVERAGING METHOD) 2,329.12
    MAD (MOVING-AVERAGING MAD, MSE NHỎ
    METHOD WITH N = 4)
    MSE (MOVING-AVERAGING 31.72 NHẤT => NÊN
    METHOD WITH N = 4) 1,668.05 CHỌN PP NÀY
    SEASONALLY SEASONALLY
    ACTUAL
    YEAR QUARTER DATA ADJUSTED ADJUSTED
    FORECAST
    DATA FORECAST
    2019 1 242.00 275.61
    2019 2 282.00
    286.35 277.63 273.40
    2019 3 254.00 281.19 288.36 260.47
    2019 4 345.00 279.61 283.20 349.43
    2020 1 253.00 288.14 281.60 247.26
    2020 2 290.00 294.48 290.14 285.73
    2020 3 262.00 290.05 296.48 267.81
    2020 4 352.00 285.28 292.05 360.35
    2021 1 270.00 307.50 287.28 252.24
    2021 2 286.00 290.42 309.48 304.78
    2021 3 271.00 300.01 292.42 264.14
    2021 4 378.00 306.36 302.00 372.63
    308.38 270.77
    FORECASTING
    ERROR

    SEASONAL
    QUARTER
    8.60 FACTOR
    6.47 1 0.8780
    4.43 2 0.9848
    5.74 3 0.9033
    4.27 4 1.2339
    5.81
    8.35
    17.76
    18.78
    6.86
    5.37

    MAD 8.40
    MSE 93.98
    SEASONALLY SEASONALLY
    ACTUAL
    YEAR QUARTER DATA ADJUSTED ADJUSTED
    FORECAST
    DATA FORECAST
    2019 1 242.00 275.61
    2019 2 282.00
    286.35 275.61 271.42
    2019 3 254.00 281.19 280.98 253.81
    2019 4 345.00 279.61 281.05 346.78
    2020 1 253.00 288.14 280.69 246.46
    2020 2 290.00 294.48 282.18 277.89
    2020 3 262.00 290.05 284.23 256.75
    2020 4 352.00 285.28 285.06 351.73
    2021 1 270.00 307.50 285.09 250.32
    2021 2 286.00 290.42 287.58 283.21
    2021 3 271.00 300.01 287.86 260.03
    2021 4 378.00 306.36 288.97 356.55
    290.42 255.00
    FORECASTING
    ERROR

    SEASONAL
    QUARTER
    10.58 FACTOR
    0.19 1 0.8780
    1.78 2 0.9848
    6.54 3 0.9033
    12.11 4 1.2339
    5.25
    0.27
    19.68
    2.79
    10.97
    21.45

    MAD 8.33
    MSE 118.90
    SEASONALLY SEASONALLY
    ACTUAL
    YEAR QUARTER DATA ADJUSTED ADJUSTED
    FORECAST
    DATA FORECAST
    2019 1 242.00 275.61
    2019 2 282.00
    286.35
    2019 3 254.00 281.19
    2019 4 345.00 279.61
    2020 1 253.00 288.14 280.69 246.46
    2020 2 290.00 294.48 283.82 279.51
    2020 3 262.00 290.05 285.85 258.21
    2020 4 352.00 285.28 288.07 355.44
    2021 1 270.00 307.50 289.49 254.18
    2021 2 286.00 290.42 294.33 289.85
    2021 3 271.00 300.01 293.31 264.95
    2021 4 378.00 306.36 295.80 364.98
    301.07 264.35
    FORECASTING
    ERROR

    SEASONAL
    QUARTER
    FACTOR
    1 0.8780
    2 0.9848
    6.54 3 0.9033
    10.49 4 1.2339
    3.79
    3.44
    15.82
    3.85
    6.05
    13.02

    MAD 7.87
    MSE 81.27

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