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Chapter 10 (Forecasting)
• Month-by-month sales (in thousands) over the initial six months have been
17 25 24 26 30 28
The last-value forecasting method ignores all data points in a time series except
the last one.
Fastchips: Month-by-month sales (in thousands) over the initial six months:
17 25 24 26 30 28
Forecast = 28
The averaging forecasting method uses all the data points in the time series and
simply averages these points.
Fastchips: Month-by-month sales (in thousands) over the initial six months:
17 25 24 26 30 28
Forecast = (17+25+24+26+30+28) / 6 = 25
The moving-average forecasting method averages the data for only the most
recent time periods.
Fastchips: Month-by-month sales (in thousands) over the initial six months:
17 25 24 26 30 28
• It gives the greatest weight to the last month and then progressively smaller
weights to the older months.
• After plotting the sales data, this method finds a line passing through the midst
of the data as closely as possible.
• The extension of the line into future months provides the forecast of sales in
these future months.
• The mean absolute deviation (called MAD) measures the average forecasting
error.
• The mean square error (often abbreviated MSE) measures the average of the
square of the forecasting error.
• The MSE increases the weight of large errors relative to the weight of small
errors.
Since sales are relatively stable through the year except for a substantial increase
during the Christmas season, assume that each quarter’s call volume will be the
same as the preceding quarter, except for adding 25 percent for Quarter 4.
A B C D E
1 CCW's Average Daily Call Volume
2
3 Year Quarter Call Volume
4 1 1 6,809
5 1 2 6,465
6 1 3 6,569
7 1 4 8,266
8 2 1 7,257
9 2 2 7,064
10 2 3 7,784
11 2 4 8,724
12 3 1 6,992
13 3 2 6,822
14 3 3 7,949
15 3 4 9,650
A B C D E F G H I
1 Current Forecasting Method for CCW's Average Daily Call Volume
2
3 Forecasting
4 Year Quarter Data Forecast Error Mean Absolute Deviation
5 1 1 6,809 MAD = 424
6 1 2 6,465 6,809 344
7 1 3 6,569 6,465 104 Mean Square Error
8 1 4 8,266 8,211 55 MSE = 317,815
9 2 1 7,257 6,613 644
10 2 2 7,064 7,257 193
11 2 3 7,784 7,064 720
12 2 4 8,724 9,730 1,006
13 3 1 6,992 6,979 13
14 3 2 6,822 6,992 170
15 3 3 7,949 6,822 1,127
16 3 4 9,650 9,936 286
17 4 1 7,720
18 4 2
19 4 3
20 4 4
• The mean absolute deviation (called MAD) measures the average forecasting
error.
• The mean square error (often abbreviated MSE) measures the average of the
square of the forecasting error.
• The MSE increases the weight of large errors relative to the weight of small
errors.
• When there are seasonal patterns in the data, they can be addressed by
forecasting methods that use seasonal factors.
• The seasonal factor for any period of a year (a quarter, a month, etc.) measures
how that period compares to the overall average for an entire year.
• It is easier to analyze data and detect new trends if the data are first adjusted to
remove the seasonal patterns.
Three-Year Seasonal
Quarter Average Factor
Total = 30,117
A B C D E F G
1 Estimating Seasonal Factors for CCW
2
3 True
4 Year Quarter Value Type of Seasonality
5 1 1 6,809 Quarterly
6 1 2 6,465
7 1 3 6,569
8 1 4 8,266 Estimate for
9 2 1 7,257 Quarter Seasonal Factor
10 2 2 7,064 1 0.9323
11 2 3 7,784 2 0.9010
12 2 4 8,724 3 0.9873
13 3 1 6,992 4 1.1794
14 3 2 6,822
15 3 3 7,949
16 3 4 9,650
A B C D E F
1 Seasonally Adjusted Time Series for CCW
2
3 Seasonal Actual Seasonally Adjusted
4 Year Quarter Factor Call Volume Call Volume
5 1 1 0.93 6,809 7,322
6 1 2 0.90 6,465 7,183
7 1 3 0.99 6,569 6,635
8 1 4 1.18 8,266 7,005
9 2 1 0.93 7,257 7,803
10 2 2 0.90 7,064 7,849
11 2 3 0.99 7,784 7,863
12 2 4 1.18 8,724 7,393
13 3 1 0.93 6,992 7,518
14 3 2 0.90 6,822 7,580
15 3 3 0.99 7,949 8,029
16 3 4 1.18 9,650 8,178
2. Apply this method to the seasonally adjusted time series to obtain a forecast of
the seasonally adjusted call volume for the next time period.
• The last-value forecasting method ignores all data points in a time series
except the last one.
• However, when conditions are changing rapidly, it may be that the last value is
the only relevant data point.
• The averaging forecasting method uses all the data points in the time series
and simply averages these points.
• The averaging forecasting method is a good one to use when conditions are
very stable.
A B C D E F G H I J K
1 Averaging Forecasting Method with Seasonality for CCW
2
3 Seasonally Seasonally
4 True Adjusted Adjusted Actual Forecasting
5 Year Quarter Value Value Forecast Forecast Error Type of Seasonality
6 1 1 6,809 7,322 Quarterly
7 1 2 6,465 7,183 7,322 6,589 124
8 1 3 6,569 6,635 7,252 7,180 611 Quarter Seasonal Factor
9 1 4 8,266 7,005 7,047 8,315 49 1 0.93
10 2 1 7,257 7,803 7,036 6,544 713 2 0.90
11 2 2 7,064 7,849 7,190 6,471 593 3 0.99
12 2 3 7,784 7,863 7,300 7,227 557 4 1.18
13 2 4 8,724 7,393 7,380 8,708 16
14 3 1 6,992 7,518 7,382 6,865 127
15 3 2 6,822 7,580 7,397 6,657 165
16 3 3 7,949 8,029 7,415 7,341 608
17 3 4 9,650 8,178 7,471 8,816 834
18 4 1 7,530 7,003
19 4 2
20 4 3
21 4 4
22 5 1 Mean Absolute Deviation
23 5 2 MAD = 400
24 5 3
25 5 4 Mean Square Error
26 6 1 MSE = 242,876
• The moving-average forecasting method averages the data for only the most
recent time periods.
5.4
5.2
5.0
Trend
line
4.8
• The formula for forecasting the next value in the time series adds the
estimated trend.
Forecast = a (Last value) + (1 – a) (Last forecast) + Estimated trend
a is the smoothing constant between 0 and 1.
• Exponential smoothing also is used to obtain and update the estimated trend.
Estimated trend = b (Latest trend) + (1 – b) (Last estimate of trend)
b is the trend smoothing constant.
• The formula for forecasting n periods from now is
Forecast = a (Last value) + (1 – a) (Last forecast) + n (Estimated trend)
Mean
Year 1 Year 2
• Last value method: Suitable for a time series that is so unstable that even the
next-to-last value is not considered relevant for forecasting the next value.
• Averaging method: Suitable for a very stable time series where even its first
few values are considered relevant for forecasting the next value.
• Exponential smoothing method: Suitable for a time series in the range from
somewhat unstable to rather stable, where the value of the smoothing constant
needs to be adjusted to fit the anticipated degree of stability.
• Exponential smoothing with trend: Suitable for a time series where the mean
of the distribution tends to follow a trend either up or down, provided that
changes in the trend occur only occasionally and gradually.
A B C D E
1 CCW's Average Daily Sales and Call Volume
2
3 Sales Call
4 Year Quarter ($thousands) Volume
5 1 1 4,894 6,809
6 1 2 4,703 6,465
7 1 3 4,748 6,569
8 1 4 5,844 8,266
9 2 1 5,192 7,257
10 2 2 5,086 7,064
11 2 3 5,511 7,784
12 2 4 6,107 8,724
13 3 1 5,052 6,992
14 3 2 4,985 6,822
15 3 3 5,576 7,949
16 3 4 6,647 9,650
A B C D E
1 CCW's Average Daily Sales and Call Volume
2
3 Sales Call
4 Year Quarter ($thousands) Volume
5 1 1 4,894 6,809
6 1 2 4,703 6,465
7 1 3 4,748 6,569
8 1 4 5,844 8,266
9 2 1 5,192 7,257
10 2 2 5,086 7,064
11 2 3 5,511 7,784
12 2 4 6,107 8,724
13 3 1 5,052 6,992
14 3 2 4,985 6,822
15 3 3 5,576 7,949
16 3 4 6,647 9,650
• This linear regression line is drawn on a graph with the independent variable
on the horizontal axis and the dependent variable on the vertical axis. The line
is constructed after plotting a number of points showing each observed value
of the independent variable and the corresponding value for the dependent
variable.
A B C D E F G H I J
1 Linear Regression of Call Volume vs. Sales Volume for CCW
2
3 Time Independent Dependent Estimation Square Linear Regression Line
4 Period Variable Variable Estimate Error of Error y = a + bx
5 1 4,894 6,809 6,765 43.85 1,923 a= -1,223.86
6 2 4,703 6,465 6,453 11.64 136 b= 1.63
7 3 4,748 6,569 6,527 42.18 1,780
8 4 5,844 8,266 8,316 49.93 2,493
9 5 5,192 7,257 7,252 5.40 29 Estimator
10 6 5,086 7,064 7,079 14.57 212 If x = 5,000
11 7 5,511 7,784 7,772 11.66 136
12 8 6,107 8,724 8,745 21.26 452 then y= 6,938.18
13 9 5,052 6,992 7,023 31.07 965
14 10 4,985 6,822 6,914 91.70 8,408
15 11 5,576 7,949 7,878 70.55 4,977
16 12 6,647 9,650 9,627 23.24 540