3/18/2021 New studies show cultivated meat can benefit climate and be cost-competitive by 2030 - The Good Food

2030 - The Good Food Institute

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New studies show

cultivated meat can have
massive environmental
bene ts and be cost-
competitive by 2030
Cultivated meat can compete on costs and
have a lower environmental footprint compared
to conventional meat production.

March 9, 2021

Elliot Swartz, Ph.D.

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3/18/2021 New studies show cultivated meat can benefit climate and be cost-competitive by 2030 - The Good Food Institute

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If renewable energy is used in its production, cultivated meat could compete on costs and have
a lower environmental footprint compared to conventional meat production in under 10 years.

Sound too good to be true? A new pair of studies analyzing the life cycle and techno-economics
of commercial-scale cultivated meat production support the claim.

These newly released reports, a life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic assessment
(TEA), are the rst-ever reports to be informed by data contributed by companies involved in
the cultivated meat supply chain. Over 15 companies and one government scienti c body (from
Singapore) participated, including ve cultivated meat manufacturers. The studies used
industry data to model how cultivated meat may be produced by the year 2030 and assessed
the costs and environmental impacts of a commercial-scale facility that produces 10,000
metric tons of a ground cultivated meat product per year.

Read the CE Delft TEA Report Read the CE Delft LCA Report
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3/18/2021 New studies show cultivated meat can benefit climate and be cost-competitive by 2030 - The Good Food Institute

Renewable energy is critical to realizing the full

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potential of cultivated meat
The LCA was the rst study to analyze scenarios of cultivated meat production powered by an
average conventional energy mix versus a renewable energy mix. If renewables are used, the
carbon footprint of cultivated meat production drops by 80 percent. Even when compared to an
extremely optimistic scenario projecting reduced environmental impacts of conventional
animal agriculture (including renewable energy at farm and feed operations), cultivated meat
produced using renewable energy reduces global warming impacts by 17 percent, 52 percent,
and 85 to 92 percent compared to conventional chicken, pork, and beef production,
respectively. These conclusions are expected to be highly robust, as the study also accounts for
uncertainty in cultivated meat production by conservatively assuming high energy use at the
facility, which is representative of an upper estimate.

Cultivated meat environmental impact comparison (when produced via renewable energy)

Similar gains are not expected in the conventional meat industry, where fossil fuels account for
only approximately 20 percent of carbon emissions throughout the supply chain. Countries that
aim to reduce their carbon footprint can thus achieve a greater rate of emissions reductions if
they increasingly replace their meat sourcing or production with cultivated meat.

Bene ts extend beyond carbon emissions

The LCA shows that cultivated meat is 3.5 times more ef cient than conventional chicken (the
most ef cient form of conventional meat production) at converting feed into meat. As a
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consequence, cultivated meat production reduces land use by 63 to 95 percent compared to
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conventional meat. If this land is carefully repurposed to rebuild ecosystems and sequester
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3/18/2021 New studies show cultivated meat can benefit climate and be cost-competitive by 2030 - The Good Food Institute

carbon or simply grow more human-edible food, we can signi cantly offset carbon emissions (a
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bene t not incorporated into the LCA) and address global food security challenges.

Reproduced from Table 6 in the LCA report. *The feed conversion ratio is < 1 because of the
difference in water content between inputs and outputs. **Does not include human inedible
grasses in the calculation.

In alignment with previous studies, cultivated meat is also expected to be less polluting (29 to
93 percent reduction) compared to all forms of conventional meat and use signi cantly less (51
to 78 percent reduction) blue water (found in surface and groundwater reservoirs) than
conventional beef production (about the same as chicken and pork). Switching to cultivated
meat could bring other positive bene ts, including mitigation of antibiotic resistance,
foodborne illness, and zoonotic disease risk associated with conventional animal agriculture,
restoration of terrestrial and marine habitats, and a decreased rate of biodiversity loss.

Cultivated meat can compete on costs

The TEA found that cultivated meat can compete with some conventional meats on costs, with
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production costs in the study as low as $5.66 per kilogram, or $2.57 per pound, from this
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hypothetical production facility in 2030. (Note that this gure strictly reflects the cost of goods
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sold and does not include markup by the manufacturer or retailer, so this is the production cost
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3/18/2021 New studies show cultivated meat can benefit climate and be cost-competitive by 2030 - The Good Food Institute

rather than the price that consumers would see.) Hybrid products that combine plant-based
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meats with cultivated meat as an ingredient offer a compelling near-term opportunity to further
reduce costs and more thoroughly biomimic the meat-eating experience.

This cost reflects the lowest-cost scenario in the model, and achieving it will require concerted
research effort to improve the process and inputs in addition to securing favorable nancing
arrangements. The baseline model production facility has an estimated capital cost of $450
million USD, but this is projected to decrease to $250 million USD with improved production
ef ciencies. This lower-cost facility would be required to achieve the $5.66 per kilogram or
$2.57 per pound production cost estimate. Additionally, to realize this competitive production
cost, relaxed payback periods and a menu of nancing strategies and incentives will be needed
to lower the cost burden on cultivated meat manufacturers and enable them to install new
infrastructure at high rates.

Importantly, new technological developments not featured in the study—such as specialized

and automated cultivators for meat production, cell culture media recycling, and improved
methods for growth factor production—can reduce the costs of cultivated meat production
even further.

A roadmap for success

These studies paint the most complete picture of the costs and environmental impacts of
large-scale cultivated meat production to date. However, data gaps exist and assumptions may
change as the nascent cultivated meat industry matures. The ndings should not be taken as
unchanging truths or as the absolute lower bounds of costs and environmental impacts of
cultivated meat. Rather, the insights from the reports can be used to address technical and
economic bottlenecks and serve as guidance for stakeholders to further the development and
deployment of cultivated meat.

We’ve created the roadmap for entrepreneurs and scientists to address the technical
challenges that will accelerate the industry and for stakeholders to capitalize on the potential
for cultivated meat to mitigate massive global challenges related to climate change, antibiotic
resistance, and other areas of human, animal, and planetary health.

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Let’s get going! Explore GFI’s summaries of the reports for both technical audiences and key
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stakeholders.
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3/18/2021 New studies show cultivated meat can benefit climate and be cost-competitive by 2030 - The Good Food Institute

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About the study’s partners and roles: The LCA study was commissioned by GFI and GAIA, who lent
their expertise to assist in the research process and connect to data partners. CE Delft was
independent in carrying out the analysis and writing the reports. Raw data from companies was not
shared with GFI or GAIA. The TEA study was commissioned by GFI. All other project roles were the
same as stated above. These reports were made possible thanks to the support of GFI’s donor family.

Author

Elliot Swartz, Ph.D.

SENIOR SCIENTIST

Elliot Swartz analyzes scienti c progress and bottlenecks in cultivated meat. Areas of
expertise: stem cell biology, neuroscience, cultivated meat.

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