Talent Outlook

2023
The most recent talent
data and predictions
for 2023
2023 01 Employees still have the
upper hand

may be the first true post-

pandemic year for recruiting
and talent management.
02 Talent resourcing starts
with retention

Will COVID-era workplace norms persist? How will a

slowdown in hiring affect pay negotiations, quality-
03 Tune your EVP to critical
target groups

of-life benefits, and employee engagement? And

what actions can employers take to boost retention
for key talent segments? 04 Employers try out new
productivity measures

We canvassed recent research, analyst commentary,

05
and business news to bring you the latest insights. Sharpen up your data-driven
In this report, we also highlight some emerging talent decision making
findings from Universum’s annual talent survey.

Click here to watch this year’s

06 What do the findings mean
for employers?

Talent Outlook webinar

01
In 2023, candidates
still have the upper
hand over employers…
but will that last?

After a long period of robust
hiring, the talent market shows
signs of a “pressure release” in 2023.
Manpower’s much anticipated Net Employment Outlook — calculated by subtracting the
share of employers who say they will reduce staffing from the share of employers who say
they plan to hire — is +23% in the first quarter of 2023.1 Despite the positive ratio, that
number is down 6% compared to Q4 2022.
To find evidence of a throttling back in hiring, one need only consult the business media,
where news about layoffs dominates. Big Tech companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta,
and Microsoft were among the first to announce consequential layoffs, but many other
tech companies followed suit. In Europe, tech-related layoffs mount; Aiven, Paddle, Brainly,
and others have announced staffing reductions.2
“ We see a subtle but meaningful pivot in the talent market right now
Says Richard Mosley, global client director at Universum.
1. Manpower Group: “Demand for Skilled Talent Persists for Q1 Despite Global Headwinds,” February 2023. https://go.manpowergroup.com/
hubfs/MPG_MEOS_Report_Q1_2023.pdf
2. Sifted: “Tech company layoffs in Europe in 2023,” January 2023. https://sifted.eu/articles/startup-tech-company-layoffs-2023/
3. UKG: “‘Blue-Collar Boomerang’ Expected in 2023,” January 2023. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230131005472/en/UKG-
%E2%80%9CBlue-Collar-Boomerang%E2%80%9D-Expected-in-2023
Talent Outlook 2023 - Chapter 01 4
“Specific talent segments, such as experienced cybersecurity engineers, have as much
negotiating power as they did 12 months ago — which is to say, a lot. But others who were
in high demand in early 2022 may find it less easy to switch jobs in 2023.”
This demand evolution may ultimately help address the critical talent shortage of
frontline and blue-collar workers, says Dave Gilbertson, vice president at UKG.
As he explains, “Demand for employees, especially for frontline and hourly roles,
remains strong. We expect to see a ‘blue-collar boomerang,’ as recently laid off
white-collar and salary workers take up well-paying, highly skilled frontline jobs in
the year to come, further easing the labor shortage.”
Many COVID-era expectations are now the norm:
Even as hiring cools slightly, workers still think they have the upper hand in the
employer-employee relationship. A recent study of over 90,000 workers found
most (68%) say they are in a strong negotiating position when seeking a new job;
“ just 14% say employers are in the power seat.

What do employees want most when it comes to
offer negotiations?
Compensation:
Pay continues to be one of the most important factors when considering a new
job. Pandemic-era changes haven’t altered that fact. In 2022, global inflation put
upward pressure on compensation.
In Universum’s research, “competitive pay” jumped from #8 to #3 in the
global ranking of the most important attributes for university students
considering a future employer. That matches the 3rd-place importance placed
on competitive pay by young professionals — a ranking that remains unchanged
from last year.
Hybrid and virtual work opportunities:
According a recent study, most people (65%) who can fulfill their job functions
off-site want to work remotely or in a hybrid format. Forrester research shows
some companies may roll back hybrid and remote work in the coming year, but
they risk backlash from employees who regard virtual working as right.
Katy Tynan, principal analyst at Forrester, says half of those who try to tighten
their policies will fail. “In 2023, we predict acute confrontations in the
companies that don’t listen to and collaborate with employees in shaping
hybrid-work policies,” she says.
Talent Outlook 2023 - Chapter 01 5
Work-life balance:
A strong job offer must also address work-life considerations — and this is
especially true for Gen X and millennials. The key is flexibility — the ability to
work at the time and place that best suits their professional and personal needs.
(Some call this trend “anywhere work” or “productivity anywhere.”) A research
report from Korn Ferry underlines this:
“In 2023, more candidates will look for cocmpanies that promote work-
life integration: being able to put in hours during the day when it’s most
convenient to take care of personal responsibilities when needed (think
working a few hours in the morning, taking an afternoon break for an
appointment or to pick up kids, then back to work in the evening.)”
66% of CEOs
know that things need to change, but they are recluctant to pursue work
models and approaches that differ from those used in the past.
68% of high-growth
organizations have enabled productivity anywhere workforce models
(up from 63% in 2021).
Accenture, 2022
Net employment outlook for 2023 is positive despite layoffs: Talent Outlook 2023 - Chapter 01 6

Plan to Hire Expect a Staffing Plan to Keep Workforce Undecided

Decrease Levels Steady

+23%
Net Employment 41% 18% 38% 3%
Outlook Globally

[Manpower Data 2023]

While a positive net employment outlook means hiring activities are increasing in 2023, that does not mean talent will be
rushing to apply. If companies do not prioritize the important factors candidates are looking for, they will not succeed in
talent acquisition. The below chart from a recent PWC survey shows the most important factors for candidates who are
considering a change in their employment.
Meaning matters to employees:

Most important factors when considering a change in work environment, % of respondents. 1

Compensation Meaning Confidence/Competence Autonomy

71% 69% 66% 60% 60% 58% 50% 47%

I am fairly I find my job I can truly My team I can be I can exceed I can choose I can choose
rewarded financially fulfilling be myself cares about creative/innovative what is expected when I work where I work
my well-being in my job of me in my job role

1
Respondents who selected extremely or very important.
Source: PwC’s 2022 Global Workforce Hopes and Fears Survey of 52,195 workers across 44 countries and territories.
02
Talent resourcing
starts with
retention
 Talent Outlook 2023 - Chapter 02 8

Even as rising layoffs cool the talent market, shortfalls in specific roles (think: IT, logistics, and And this is not a US-only phenomenon. European workers did not
finance) mean recruiting mission-critical talent will continue to be a significant challenge for initially join the Great Resignation, because they already enjoyed
most companies. significantly better working conditions: fewer hours, longer vacations,
and more job protections. Yet labor data shows 2022 turnover was
One point of concern: A large share of workers say significantly higher in Germany, the UK, France, and the Netherlands
— a sign that the Great Resignation or Great Reset has affected the
they are open to finding a new job in the near future. European continent.
These so-called passive candidates could fly at a moment’s notice. Universum’s 2022 survey
among young professionals indicated that: High turnover goes hand-in-hand with low engagement — and
engagement has been falling worldwide since 2019, according to Gallup.

37% were considering leaving their current employment within the next year. A similar glo-
bal survey conducted by PwC came to similar conclusions, with 27% of Gen Z workers (18- “ Employee engagement is ultimately not about
25) and 23% of millennial workers (26-41) claiming they were very likely to switch jobs
within the next 12 months. 4
being obsessed with work or living to work
Says Jon Clifton, CEO of Gallup.
“
“It’s about having clear expectations, feeling connected to and
Many analysts believe this willingness to quit is a post-COVID phenomenon. Caitlin Duffy, supported by your team, and finding purpose in your work.
director in the Gartner HR practice, explains that the greater prevalence of remote work models
means job-changing is easier, because geography no longer acts as a barrier: These are universal human needs. The fact that they are not met for
millions of European employees is not a cultural badge of honor but
“ This rising turnover is not a momentary blip, but
rather a fundamental shift for the U.S. workforce.5
a sign of poor leadership and people management. 6 ”

4. Pwc: “Global Workforce Hopes and Fears Survey,” 2022.

https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/hopes-and-fears/downloads/global-workforce-hopes-and-fears-survey-2022-v2.pdf

5. Gartner: “Navigating Today’s Job Churn,” December 2022. https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2022-12-15-

navigating-todays-job-churn

6. Gallup: “Europe Gets Life Right, but Work Wrong,” June 2022. https://www.gallup.com/workplace/393794/europe-gets-life-
right-work-wrong.aspx
 Talent Outlook 2023 - Chapter 02 9

A large share of workers say they may leave

their jobs — as high as 66% in India:
Likelihood that respondents will leave their current job in next 3-6 months, %

Overlall Australia Canada India Singapore UK US

66
14 49
Total likelihood 40 41 38 4 40
Almost Certainly
Very Likely
5
6
4
5
2
5
18 7
11
33
5
6 At risk of
3 6
Likely 7 8 8 12
4 7 attrition
Somewhat likely 22 24 22 22 27 22 20

Not at all likely 60 59 62 34 51 67 60

Note: Figures may not sum to total, because o rounding.

Source: Subset of respondents from McKinsey’s 2022 Great Attrition, Great Attraction 2.0 global survey who were employed at the time of the survey,
wich was coducted between Feb 2022 and Apr 2022 (n= 12,378)

“ What we are seeing is a fundamental mismatch between companies’ demand for talent and the number of
workers willing to supply it. Employers continue to rely on traditional levers to attract and retain people, including
compensation, titles, and advancem However, the COVID-19 pandemic has led more and more people to
reevaluate what they want from a job — and from life — which is creating a large pool of active and potential
workers who are shunning the traditionalist path. ent opportunities. Those factors are important, particularly for a
large reservoir of workers we call “traditionalists.” 7
McKinsey Quarterly
“

7. McKinsey & Company, “The Great Attrition is making hiring harder. Are you searching the right talent pools?,” July 2022. “https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/people-and-organizational-
performance/our-insights/the-great-attrition-is-making-hiring-harder-are-you-searching-the-right-talent-pools
 Talent Outlook 2023 - Chapter 02 10

Another aspect of employee retention is engagement. Employees who are not engaged in their daily tasks are not only operating
at a lower level than they could be, but also provide a greater risk for seeking new employment. The below chart shows employee
engagement rates across different markets globally. This lack of engagement shows just how crucial it is for employers to tune their
EVP and ensure they are providing both existing and future talent with what they desire.

Employee Engagement by Region:

Ranking Region % Engaged

1 United States and Canada 33

2 South Asia 27

3 Southeast Asia 24

4 Latin America and the Caribbean 23

5 Sub-Saharan Africa 21

6 Commonwealth of Independent States 20

7 East Asia 17

8 Australia and New Zealand 17

Middle East and North Africa
9 15

10 Europe 14

Gallup, 2022: State of the Global Workplace: 2022 Report - Get the Data
03
Why you need to
tune your EVP to
critical target groups
 Talent Outlook 2023 - Chapter 03 12

With so many changes in workplace norms since

2020, it’s no wonder many employers are revising and
optimizing their employer value propositions (EVPs).
Probably the most significant turnabout is employers’ involvement in employees’ emotional health —
preventing burnout, boosting satisfaction, and providing a positive work-life experience. The employer
value proposition increasingly reflects this employee-centered approach.
For over a decade, Universum has tracked employee attitudes about work life and career aspirations.
Our World’s Most Attractive Employer survey asks university students in business, engineering, and IT
what attributes they seek in an ideal employer.
To recruit effectively, develop targeted personas:
The Universum research shows every year that global averages hide a
tremendous amount of diversity — diverse career preferences by gender,
age, geography, and area of study. It should surprise no one that what an IT
worker in London looks for in a new job, for example, is different from what
a business major in Texas is searching for. For that reason, a company’s EVP
needs to be tuned to the needs of local markets and specific talent groups.
As a first step, companies should define their critical talent groups — which
are the roles and skills that are mission-critical to the organization. Don’t
forget jobs that may be outside the corporate office, like blue-collar workers
and frontline workers.

Across all groups, competitive salary was a higher priority in 2022 (not surprising given inflation). Yet,
work-life balance and flexible working conditions have bounded quickly up the attribute preference
rankings to become significant priorities. Work-life balance rose six ranking positions to No. 8, and
flexible working rose seven places to No. 10. In some countries, like Canada, Germany, and the US,
quality-of-life factors rank in the top five.
Then develop a customized proposition for each segment: What messages
will resonate with a particular group? Which employee profiles will align
with that group’s career goals? Enlist help from marketing to develop
personalized content for each critical talent group — much like you would
do for customer personas and segments.

Attributes Growing in Importance

Source: Universum Talent Survey 2022

Competitive salary: From No. 8 to No. 3

Work-life balance: From No. 14 to No. 8

Flexible working: From No. 17 to No. 10
04
Employers are keen to
develop new productivity
measures. Some employees
(and job candidates) will push
back at all the attention
 Talent Outlook 2023 - Chapter 04
01 14

Three years into the Great Virtual Work Experiment, corporate leaders It describes a rushing “productivity paranoia” — a fear among company
are now focused on normalizing hybrid and virtual working — and, not leaders that new norms will permanently harm productivity and work ethic.
surprisingly, ensuring workers are productive when they’re not in the office. When candidates consider potential employers, they’re not only looking at
whether the company offers flexible working hours, but whether the culture
“ In remote settings, leaders can’t physically see all the work that
is being done and have less face time with employees, which has
embraces flexibility and mutual respect.
heightened fears that productivity levels are not being met.
Said Kelly Griffith, global director of coaching services for EZRA, a U.K.-
“
based app for staff development.8

87% of employees
Say they are productive at work.
In 2023, tension is rising between company leaders, who want to impose
greater controls and oversight, and employees, who believe they should be
trusted to get their work done.
85% of leaders
A report from Microsoft, which surveyed 20,000 people and analyzed trillions Say the shift to hybrid makes them question employee productivity.
of Microsoft 365 productivity signals, found “the majority of employees
(87%) report that they are productive at work, and productivity signals
across Microsoft 365 continue to climb. [...] At the same time, 85% of Microsoft’s Workforce Trend Index, 2022
leaders say that the shift to hybrid work has made it challenging to have
confidence that employees are being productive.” 9

8. SHRM: “In Hybrid Work, Don’t Rely on Just One Aspect of Productivity,” October 2022. https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/
employee-relations/pages/in-hybrid-work-dont-rely-on-just-one-aspect-of-productivity.aspx
9. Microsoft: “Hybrid Work Is Just Work. Are We Doing It Wrong?,” Sept. 2022. https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/worklab/work-trend-index/
hybrid-work-is-just-work
 Talent Outlook 2023 - Chapter 04 15

What drives productivity?: New work-model decisions should balance the needs
Access to drivers of onsite productivity has increased year over year. of employers and employees:

27%
34%
Access to better technology.

Non-traditional workspace.
23%

23%
29%

31%
35% 29%
Beneficial routine.
22%
30%
Of workers at companies that Only 29% of workers now trust that
More visible for promotions. communicated a long-term work- their company’s leaders have their
More opportunity to 25% model decision, only 35% feel the best interests at heart.
31%
collaborate face to face. decision reflects research, data and
employee needs.
2021 2022

Accenture Future of Work 2022 Study Accenture Future of Work 2022 Study

“ Some CEOs are noticing with approval how Musk is cutting perks and frills at Twitter, and getting away with it, at least so far.
It could indicate a pivot, [Vaco managing director, Taylor] Desseyn suggested, to an ethos that is ‘a little bit of like the old school Silicon Valley: It’s gonna
be a bunch of guys and girls in a garage, just churning out code. There’s been some argument lately that big tech is basically adult daycare.10
“
10. The New Stack: “How Will Working in Tech Change in 2023?,” January 2023. https://thenewstack.io/how-will-working-in-tech-change-in-2023/
05
Data-driven decision
making: Why now is the
time to sharpen up your
metrics
 Talent Outlook 2023 - Chapter 05 17

More and more companies are Al-driven tech can make recruiting and
investing in talent intelligence: talent management more efficient.
Deploying AI-driven technology (and lots of data)
to predict talent needs, uncover inefficiencies,
improve candidate experience, and diversify the
45% of companies worldwide are using AI to improve
recruiting and human resource functions.12

candidate pool.

A profile in Computerworld suggests that between 35% and 45% of companies are
using AI-based talent acquisition software to identify, interview, and hire candidates
in 2023. Given the continuing high rate of turnover and hiring expected in 2023,
Bret Greenstein, a PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) partner and Data Analytics and AI
researcher, expects companies will increasingly lean on AI to lessen the recruiting and
hiring burden. He explains:
In addition to these AI-driven approaches, there is also a more basic and
straightforward need to simply ask your target audiences what drives their
employer preferences. Universum is seeing an uptick in demand for this kind of
research: identifying the specific needs of different categories of students
and the different emphases placed on employer attributes by country.

“ Recruiters need better tools to be efficient in matching candidates and

ensuring interviews are used efficiently by ensuring candidates are well-
matched up front. 11 “
In addition, talent intelligence platforms can help predict looming talent shortages,
giving businesses time to upskill existing employees, or pivot to hiring so-called
“new collar” workers — people without college degrees who can be trained to fill
important, high-demand technology jobs.

11. Computerworld: “Your next job recruiter might be an AI bot,” January 2023. https://www.computerworld.com/article/3685409/
your-next-job-recruiter-might-be-an-ai-bot.html

12. Computerworld: “Your next job recruiter might be an AI bot,” January 2023. https://www.computerworld.com/article/3685409/
your-next-job-recruiter-might-be-an-ai-bot.html
Conclusion
What do the
findings mean
for employers?
 Talent Outlook 2023 - Chapter 06 19

Define what flexible work means for your company:

Is flexibility simply about the opportunity to work from home — but do so on a fixed schedule? Or does it mean
employees can choose their work location and schedule? Does the company culture really support flexibility or only give it
lip service? This distinction is important to job seekers. “When I think of remote, I think of location and time agnostic
but a lot of these jobs have fixed schedules. They don’t adopt asynchronous practices, [and] still have an explicit
or implicit fixed schedule,” says Pilar Orti, founder and director, Virtual not Distant.13 When companies lead with
“flexibility” or “hybrid,” they should think clearly about what it means — practically and culturally.

Build the productivity road map:

With so much talk about flexibility, employers should also be clear about expectations for productivity, and how they
aim to measure it. “While organizations, in general, are maintaining (or even expanding) their productivity
expectations, many are not providing leaders with resources to train, motivate, monitor, coach or mentor their
direct reports,” says Paul Schempp, a leadership speaker and research professor at the University of Georgia.14

Employers have an increasingly broad portfolio of tools and apps to measure productivity — ranging from analysis tools
that take broad measurements of aggregate performance, to fairly intrusive tools that monitor keyboard clicks. Schempp
cautions that employers intent on measuring productivity should think more about whether projects are proceeding on
pace and goals are being met, and less whether a particular employee is active on their computer at 10 a.m.

Ensure the EVP strikes a balance:

Increasingly, employers are asking that an employee-friendly Work Anywhere ethos be balanced against
expectations for productivity and accountability. “If the employer value proposition focuses too much
on flexibility, with no counterweight discussion of work expectations, it’s setting the wrong tone,” says
Universum Global Client Director, Richard Mosley. “Even while employers are scrambling to attract top
talent, their EVP should balance the needs of employees with the expectations of employers.”

13. The New Stack: “How Will Working in Tech Change in 2023?,” January 2023. https://thenewstack.io/how-will-working-in-tech-
change-in-2023/

14. SHRM: “In Hybrid Work, Don’t Rely on Just One Aspect of Productivity,” October 2022. https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/
hr-topics/employee-relations/pages/in-hybrid-work-dont-rely-on-just-one-aspect-of-productivity.aspx
 Talent Outlook 2023 - Chapter 06 20

Consider the nearly-perfect hire:

When top talent is so challenging to hire, employers should remain open-minded about hiring
professionals who ‘almost’ fit the role. As a BCG report explains, employers can consider “hiring candidates
who are a 70% fit and then training them to quickly come up to speed on the remaining requirements.
STARs—people who are “skilled through alternative routes”—can be a great source of talent.” (BCG)

Invest in an employee-experience manager:

The role of employee experience manager — a relatively new position — is now ranked fifth on LinkedIn’s
2023 “fastest-growing jobs” listing. Employee experience managers “track and analyze daily
workflow, office aesthetics, and employee surveys to determine how engaged and satisfied
workers are in their jobs,” says the Wall Street Journal. 15 But primarily, an employee experience
manager can help boost productivity, improve satisfaction, and reduce turnover — a worthwhile
investment for 2023.

Only 26% of CEOs

Have a future-ready strategy that is holistically focused
on changing how, why and where we work.

Accenture, 2022 16

15. The Wall Street Journal: “One of the Hottest New Jobs Aims to Tackle Employee Burnout,” January 2023. https://www.wsj.com/articles/employee-experience-
manager-is-the-hot-new-job-what-does-it-entail-11674048107?mod=Searchresults_pos7&page=1

16. Accenture: “Future of work research,” November 2022. https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insights/consulting/future-work

 Talent Outlook 2023 21

About
Universum
Universum, part of the StepStone Group, is a global thought leader in Employer
Branding. With 30 years of valuable experience in the field of employer branding,
we have established ourselves in 60 markets globally, and our diverse workforce is
physically present in 20 countries.

We are uniquely positioned through our talent surveys to deliver key insights to
recruiters about what future talent is looking for in a company. Our data-led, human
and meaningful output has attracted 1,700 clients, including many Fortune 500
companies, as well as global media partners that publish our annual rankings and
trend reports.

Find out more at:

www.universumglobal.com