SGIA2361: What’s a Model & Michaelmas

Summative Guidance

Dr. Patrick M Kuhn

9/10 October 2022
p.m.kuhn@durham.ac.uk

School of Government and International Affairs

Today’s Agenda

What’s a Model?

Michaelmas Group Summative: How to Build A Model

Conclusion & Outlook

1
What’s a Model?
What’s a Model?

2
A Map is a Model: The London Tube Map

3
A Map is a Model: The London Tube Map
Southern London Midland London Midland First Capital Connect First Capital Connect First Capital Connect Greater Anglia
Milton Keynes Milton Keynes St. Albans Abbey St. Albans, Luton Airport, Welwyn Garden City, Hertford North Broxbourne, Hertford East,
and Northampton Luton and Bedford Stevenage, Letchworth, and Stevenage Harlow, Bishops Stortford,
How Wood Cambridge, Kings Lynn, Stansted Airport and Cambridge
Huntingdon and
M25 Peterborough
Jn22
Chesham M25 Jn21 Cuffley Cheshunt
Jn21a

Bricket Wood Epping

A5
Kings Langley Potters Bar

HIRE
Theobalds

TFORDS
Grove

M1
HER

A1(M)

A10
Jn20

M11
A121
M25 M25
Jn24 Crews Hill Waltham M25
Jn23 Cross
Garston Radlett Jn25
Chiltern Railways Jn26
Aylesbury Jn27
A41
Theydon Bois
Hadley A10 A121
Wrotham Wood 05 Enfield
Turkey
E

0
Amersham Chalfont Park

A101
0
Street Lock

A1

A100
Jn19

A111
& Latimer

5
A105

A12
A112
A404

1
Watford

A10
Gordon Hill Lee Valley

S
M25
Grove North Country

81
A41
Park Park

S
A10
1
E L D
E N F I Enfield
Watford Trent Park
Brimsdown

E
M1 Country
Junction Park Epping M2

X
Cassiobury Town Forest 5
Park A4
Cockfosters
A110 Enfield A110
1 High Greater Anglia

13
A411 Chase
Watford Southend, Chelmsford, Colchester,

A1
Aldenham Barnet Southbury

1
Ipswich and Norwich

A5

M1
Jn18 Watford Park Elstree & Borehamwood Oakwood Loughton Debden
Chorleywood

A10
A404 High Street New Ponders

A105
A110 Grange
Barnet End
E
2 Park Bush Hill
A11
Croxley A41 A411 0
Park Shenfield

10
IR

A411

A11
A411 9

A10
Oakleigh Park Winchmore A106

1
Bushey Elstree Hill

A11
Open Space
SH

Moat Mount
Totteridge & Chingford

12
Open Space

A1055
09
Southgate

A1
M1 Whetstone

37
A109

A105
A51

A10

A1
Jn17 Rickmansworth Edmonton

010
Moor A111 Buckhurst

A112
E T
A413
AM

Park Green Hill

A1000
R N
Carpenders

A409
Park

A41
B A
Palmers A1009 Hainault Forest
Arnos Grove Silver

A404
A41

40
Angel

A41

W A O R
Woodside Park Green Street Roding Country Park Brentwood

A1
Bentley Priory A410

2
Road A406 Chigwell

009
25

A1
GH

Open Space A406 Valley

A1 Weald
Stanmore Mill Hill

M2
New Bounds Grange

5
Broadway Country

M11
Edgware A1003 Green
H
Chiltern Railways West Finchley Southgate Highams Hill

A10
Hatch Park

LT E S T
High Wycombe, Aylesbury,
A410
Bowes White Hart Park Woodford
Banbury and Birmingham Mill Hill East
IN

End Lane A1

A128
Epping Jn28
Park 112
Forest
M25

Northwood Canons Park Northumberland

W
Park

H A
Hainault

A104

A
A5
Headstone

A4
R O
CK

Beaconsfield Wood Green

04
4

A4140
Lane

R
Burnt Oak A12
A41
Northwood A40
Finchley Bruce A406 Fairlop

V
2

M1
Hills Grove
R Central Alexandra 080

E
A10

M
A1 Blackhorse A503 South

A41
Palace Turnpike Lane
A
A1

5
A12

A40
I N G ESevenY
Harrow & Colindale

A40
Road
BU

Woodford

E
64
A504

D
H A RHornsey Harringay Sisters

A5
A504

4
Pinner Wealdstone Walthamstow Harold Wood
H
Seer Tottenham

6
Queensbury Wood

A1112
A1199
Green Hale Central Barkingside 8
Street

R
A504
East Finchley A11

B
Hendon St. James Street

A14

3
A41
A12

A12
03
A4006 Central A1 Walthamstow

A12
00
80
North Harrow A1 Green Queens Road Snaresbrook

A409

I
A4006

A598
Lanes

5
Gerrards A4 Kingsbury A5 Harringay South A12 Gidea A127
04 02
Cross Northwick Kenton Hendon Tottenham Newbury Park Park

N
Crouch Stamford Leyton A12

ID
Park Romford
Preston Brent Highgate Hill Hill Midland Road Redbridge Gants A118 A127
Denham Rayners Wanstead Jn29

A10
Road 3
Cross 4 Hill Emerson

G
Golf Club Lane A50

A41
Harrow- A120

A1006
Denham West

A40
A10 Park
Manor House

A107
Golders 1

A312
6 Stoke Seven A118

A123

G
A41
on-the-Hill

40
Harrow
B
Leytonstone

6
A40

A10
Wanstead
R
A40 Green Hampstead Newington Kings West
Eastcote South Upminster
Wembley ParkE N
Archway Finsbury Park Chadwell A124

A404
Park

3
c2c
Kenton
Heath Leytonstone Goodmayes Upminster Horndon

A5
Rectory Heath Basildon,

T ISLINGTON
Ruislip

E
C A M D E N Tufnell High Road Bridge Southend and

02
Upper Road A124

A40
7
Ruislip Manor Clapton Hackney Ilford

A105
South A40 Shoeburyness

A5
Wanstead

A11
A1083
West Ruislip North A40 Gospel Park Holloway Marsh

90
Harrow 05 Hornchurch

6
Cricklewood Arsenal Flats A1083 A124
Hampstead Oak BARKING

A10
Sudbury Hill Wembley Leyton Wanstead Manor Eastbrookend
Neasden Dollis Hampstead Heath Holloway HACKNEY

M25
Harrow Wembley Park Country Elm Park
AND

A11
South Road Park 8

A112
A41
M40 Northolt Park Sudbury & Stadium Hill Willesden Drayton Park Dalston Hackney A11 Park
Ickenham Ruislip

12
Kentish
A40 Harrow Road West Finchley Woodgrange Park D A G E N H A MDagenham
Road
Green & Frognal
Town Canonbury Kingsland Downs Homerton Forest Gate A124

A123
Hampstead
Ruislip Sudbury Hill Kentish Stratford 4
Wembley Kilburn Belsize Park
Caledonian International Maryland A12 Dagenham East
Jn16 Gardens Central Town Road Highbury & Islington
2 Chalk Farm West Dalston Hackney Hackney Heathway
Sudbury Finchley Camden
Becontree
A40

A31 Stonebridge Park Road Junction

Central Wick Stratford A118 Barking

6
Brondesbury Road

A4127
Town Swiss Cottage Caledonian Essex Road
East Ham

A10
Upney
20

Hillingdon Brondesbury

A10
7
Park Road & London

A40
Northolt A404 Kilburn
Camden
Barnsbury Victoria
Fields
A355

Town

A12
Stratford
A40
Kensal
High Road South Park Upton Park
N
Harlesden Hampstead Haggerston
High Street Hornchurch

00
Uxbridge Alperton Willesden Rise Queen’s Mornington Country

06
St. John’s Wood Crescent A1
A437

Park Plaistow

A120
O
Greenford King’s Cross Park

A4
St. Angel
Cambridge 25
M25
12
Junction Kilburn Pancras Pudding
Abbey Dagenham

A5
Park
Heath Bethnal Mill Lane
West A13

A406
International A1 A1306

5
A3 Road
Perivale Regent’s Hoxton
Dock
D
Maida 12

A117
A4020 South Vale Park A1208 Green Ham A124
Kensal Green Mile

NEWHA
Euston King’s Cross End Bow Church
Greenford North WESTMINSTER
Bethnal Green

G
Great St. Pancras Old Street
Hanger Lane Ockendon

I N G
Baker Portland

M
Acton Warwick Avenue
Marylebone
Street Street
Russell
Shoreditch
High
Bow Road

Park Royal A40 Edgware

Euston
Square Square Farringdon Street Bromley- Rainham A13

ABarLPark

A1020
Moorgate Stepney Green Devons
Road
Wormwood Goodge Street Road by-Bow 06
N

Regent’s Warren Whitechapel Star Lane

2

Royal Oak A13

West Liverpool

A312
Street Tottenham
A41

North Scrubs
E Castle TO WER
Park Street Beckton
A4020 Edgware Court Road Holborn
Ealing Ealing Acton East Acton Westbourne Road
Oxford
Bond Circus Barbican Aldgate
East
A13 Langdon Park
HAMLETS
I

St. Paul’s
A4 Broadway Park Bayswater
Paddington
Street Chancery
Lane Bank
Aldgate Canning Town Riv
Burnham 08
Ladbroke Covent City Fenchurch St. er A13
L

Leicester
Taplow West Mansion Beckton Tha

A4127
Drayton Grove Marble Arch Square Garden Thameslink
House
Tower Shadwell
Limehouse
Poplar All Saints Royal Custom House Prince Royal Park Gallions mes
Green Ealing Acton A40 White City Latimer Lancaster
Charing
Temple Hill
Westferry
Victoria for ExCeL Regent
Albert Reach
Road
Main Line Gate Blackwall East
IL

Wood Lane Queensway Cross Tower Cyprus

Acton Notting
Hyde Piccadilly
Blackfriars Cannon Gateway A1203 West India Quay India
A43

Embankment Street Monument London

A4

A100
West Ealing Central
Hill Gate
Park
Green Park Circus
Canary Wharf A1020 City Airport
Kensington
7

Shepherd’s Bush Holland A2016 Jn30

Crossrail Drayton Hanwell Common A4020 Market Park
Waterloo East
London Bridge
West
Slough Southall Gardens Westminster Wapping Heron Silvertown King

SLO
Maidenhead and Reading Shepherd’s A20 A2016 A13
South Acton Bush A315 Quays George V
H

Pontoon
Hayes & South
Southwark 0
North

A1206
Goldhawk High Street Hyde Park

A1206
Rotherhithe Dock

UG
Knightsbridge South
First Great Western Kensington Kensington Corner Waterloo Thames
Reading, Oxford, Iver Harlington Ealing Acton Turnham Road
(Olympia) Borough Quay
Greenwich Flood Abbey
St. James’s Lambeth North
Canada Water
A408

H
Banbury, Worcester, M4 Langley Northfields Town Green A4 Park Barrier
Woolwich Wood
A3005

A10
and Bedwyn Gloucester Bermondsey
Road Sloane Crossharbour
Chiswick Victoria 6 Belvedere
127

2
Earl’s Square Elephant & Castle
Boston Manor
Hammersmith
Court Surrey Quays A20
Woolwich Woolwich
Chafford
A4

Park Stamford Ravenscourt Barons Mudchute Jn31

Hundred
Brook
Park Court South Island Gardens
Westcombe Dockyard Plumstead

K
M4
KENSINGTON
Kensington
Kennington A2 Arsenal A206
Park Erith

A2041
Jn15 West Purfleet
H

R
Gunnersbury 00 Charlton

A215
M4
Kew West AND
Brompton
Pimlico South Bermondsey

M25
M4 Bridge A4 Kensington
mes
Cutty Sark
CHELSEA Vauxhall c2c

A3
M4 for Maritime Greenwich

W
A3044

A306
Tha Tilbury and
A408

Brentford Chiswick

A32
r Battersea Maze Hill
W
Fulham Nine Elms A2
H Broadway Deptford Southend
Rive

A102

A2
I

H
Oval

A32
20
BatterseaPark
M25

Windsor AM Grays

09
A4 Battersea Greenwich
A31

A220
Slade

20
& Eton Osterley

A219
Queens Road

A205
O M
A4 A315 Park Greenwich Park A207

Y
W
2

Syon Lane Parsons Green E S Green

Riverside A4 A202 Peckham
Queenstown New Deptford

6
Kew New Southeastern

O
A31
M

A206
A23
LHounslow
Bridge
A3044

Imperial Road Cross Ashford International and Kent

IT Stockwell Peckham
Riv

N
Datchet Gardens Barnes Denmark Cross
F U A NWharf
A2

S
East Syon
H A207
er

E
Rye
Windsor & Bridge Hill
Key to lines

A2
Loughborough Gate
S
Elverson Road
Heathrow Park Royal
LH D
Th

E
Isleworth St. Johns Welling Bexleyheath
Eton Central
am

Junction Lewisham Barnehurst

OR

A3
Heathrow Terminals Botanic Putney Bridge A Clapham Junction
Wandsworth Clapham
es

Brixton Nunhead
E

L
1, 2, 3 Hounslow Hounslow
Gardens
Barnes M North Blackheath
Terminal 5

DS
Mortlake Road
N

West Richmond Brockley

Central North Putney Clapham High Street Brixton
R Falconwood London Underground lines

X
A205 Wandsworth Town

WIN ND
A30 Kidbrooke
East

5
Sheen A20

A21
G
U

Sunnymeads A2 A207 Jn1a

D
Clapham

A221
Jn14 Hatton Clapham Common Dulwich Crofton Greenhithe
Common Hither

EA
Hounslow

E
Cross A315 East Putney Park Eltham
A Bakerloo
A20 Dartford
L A M B E T H Green
O

5 Ladywell Crayford Stone Swanscombe

W A N D S W O R T H North

NH
Heathrow St. Margarets Herne Crossing Northfleet

B
Honor Lee
A244

Dulwich
Terminal 4 Clapham South Hill Central
IDE
H

Oak Park

L
Southeastern

A23
Wandsworth Gravesend

E
MA

A21
Feltham Whitton Twickenham Common A205
A2 and Chatham
Circle
Catford

W
A3 Southfields Catford Bridge Mottingham
RICHMOND Richmond Balham Bexley District

IS
A205 A20
Wraysbury

A21
Park Earlsfield West Dulwich A205

A218

M25
A31 New
Tulse
UPON Forest

A219
Hammersmith & City

H
2
A30 Streatham Hill Hill Eltham Albany A2
Jn13 Strawberry Hill Sidcup

A
Ashford Tooting Bec Hill Park A2
THAMES Sydenham Bellingham Jn2 Jubilee

M
Wimbledon Park A217 Hill Grove Park

A24
A313 West
Fulwell Wimbledon
Common Haydons
A214 Norwood
Gipsy Sydenham Metropolitan
Road Hill Beckenham Hill
Lower
A307

Staines Tooting Crystal Northern

A31

A3

A214
Teddington Wimbledon Broadway Sydenham
6

A308

A308 Streatham Palace

A31

Egham Penge Elmstead future

Colliers
M25

Hampton A219 Tooting Streatham A21 East Woods A20

Wood
A311

A30 Kempton Park Wick

Kingston Dundonald Road
Common 5
Kent New
Sundridge A222
Piccadilly
A238 Penge House Ravensbourne Park
Hampton Bushy Park West Beckenham
Victoria

A225
Sunbury Raynes South Wimbledon Norbury
A308 Norbiton Park Merton Farningham
M3 Park Morden Road Beckenham Road
Bromley North
Anerley Road
Upper A3050 8 New Wimbledon M E R T O N Beckenham Waterloo & City

A24
Chislehurst

A23
A30 Chase Clock
Halliford A20 Malden Mitcham Junction Shortlands A22
Birkbeck Avenue Southeastern
A298 Phipps Bridge 2
Interchanges

A21
43
Eastfields
Road House Chatham, Margate,
Morden Canterbury and Dover
A244

M25
Hampton South Merton Belgrave Walk St. Mary
Hampton Court Bickley
A307

South West Trains Bromley South

A240

Ascot, Bracknell, Court Berrylands Mitcham Thornton Harrington Cray Swanley

Reading and Weybridge Mitcham Heath Road Elmers End
A3

Shepperton Motspur Morden South Junction Mitcham

Common Norwood
Petts A20
Jn3
National Rail lines
Virginia Park Selhurst Wood
(cased in black. All routes are shown
es

South West Trains Surbiton KINGSTON Beddington Lane Junction A214

A23
Waters Arena
am

17
M3 Aldershot, Basingstoke,
Eden Park
A2 excluding limited services)
Thames M20
Th

Camden Town Salisbury, Exeter,

A30
Essex Road London Southampton, UPON St. Helier Therapia Lane
Central London Ditton Woodside
er

Fields Bournemouth,Poole, West

A21
Riv

South Weymouth, Guildford,

THAMES Blackhorse Lane West
Croydon Chiltern Railways
Y
Havant, Portsmouth
Kilburn Hampstead Wickham
5
Connections (for Isle of Wight),
Malden
Worcester Ampere Way
Addiscombe

E
High A520
Mornington Chertsey Chertsey and Staines Park Wellesley
A12

Manor c2c
A41

Road A232

S U T T O N
A24

East
L
Road Crescent
00

Waddon Marsh Centrale

M2

Hayes M2
St. John’s Esher A2 Hackbridge Reeves Croydon Sandilands Orpington 0
5

Sutton Common First Capital Connect

M
Corner
Wood St. King’s Cross A3 Tolworth
043
Lebanon A232
A10

Angel Hinchley Wandle Park Church George

Pancras
N O
Road A23 2
17

Wood Street Street

International Cambridge 2
First Great Western
A2

A23
Hersham
A5

Carshalton A232
Heath

D O R
A1208 West
Hoxton
A4210

Maida Regent’s Addlestone 22

A243

M3 Sutton
B
Walton-on- A244 Waddon A212 Lloyd A20
Greater Anglia
Vale
A20

Park Stoneleigh

O Y
A501 Thames Park
Bethnal South

A233
Eynsford
43

A232
7

Chessington North A2 Wallington

A31

Green Croydon

C R
Heathrow Connect

A21
40
Euston King’s Cross
Bethnal Claygate

A235
05 St. Pancras Old Street 07 Coombe
Gravel Addington Village Chelsfield
Green Sutton Heathrow Express
A41

A52 A3 Carshalton Lane

Hill
Great Chessington Beeches Fieldway
A1

Baker

A23
A21

Portland Shoreditch South Ewell Cheam

Street Weybridge West King Henry’s Drive London Midland
7

Warwick Street Russell A5201

High Street 2
Euston
A42

A404 Marylebone
A232

Square A202 New Addington

Avenue Sanderstead Southeastern

T
Square Farringdon
00

A40 Edgware 9
Whitechapel A3 EPSOM A21
M25
Jn4
Road A31 Warren 1
Moorgate Belmont A2022 Purley Knockholt
Southern

N
Regent’s Goodge Street A520
AND Ewell Oaks
Street Byfleet & Liverpool East
Royal Oak Park Tottenham Chancery New Haw Street
Edgware EWELL South West Trains
A4210

A11

E
M25
Road Court Road Lane Barbican Aldgate
A237

East Purley
M25

A240

Bond

K
2
Street Oxford Holborn A40
West St. Paul’s A245 A3 Oxshott Epsom A202 Reedham
Riddlesdown
Shoreham Interchanges
Bayswater Byfleet Aldgate 07
A20

Circus A3 Banstead
A5

22

Bank Fenchurch Smitham (Coulsdon Town)

A243

A4206 Paddington Covent Garden City A2022

Marble Arch Leicester Thameslink Street Crossrail
A24

A217

Square A4
Mansion Tower Shadwell A22
Woodmansterne
4

Lancaster Temple House Hill Epsom Future

S
South West Trains
A40 Gate Charing A245 Guildford Ashtead Downs Kenley
Cross Tower
U
Queensway A1203 Coulsdon
Blackfriars
A42

Cannon Gateway South London Overground

R
Notting Piccadilly A24
02

Street Monument 0
Hill Gate Embankment
RE
Hyde Park Green Park Circus 0 2 4 Miles Future
A3

Kensington A245 Upper

Gardens Waterloo Tattenham Whyteleafe Warlingham
Y
M25 Jn9 Otford
East London Bridge Corner
A24

Wapping
A100

Cobham & Chipstead

Westminster Docklands Light Railway
A3

Woking Stoke D’Abernon 0 3 6 Kilometres

M2

M26
A23
5

A315 Hyde Park Southwark A20

Whyteleafe Southeastern
Maidstone and
High Street Knightsbridge Corner Waterloo 0 South Ashford International
Rotherhithe Dunton
Kensington Leatherhead Tramlink

A233
Borough Jn9 Green
A3

St. James’s Lambeth North Canada Water

02

A2 Woldingham
Park 01 Tadworth
A4
Kingswood Jn5 Bat &
Gloucester South A302 Bermondsey Ball
A3036

Kensington
A22
A2

Earl’s
A3216

A3212

Road A201
Effingham
Court 217 Caterham
Victoria
A217

A3 Elephant & Castle Juction South West Trains M25

Bookham Guildford
London Connections
M2
3
A23

Sloane A20 May 2014

2 Jn8 Jn7 Jn6
M25
Square Southern and Southern
National Rail Kennington
A2 South South West Trains M25 First Capital Connect Redhill, Gatwick Airport, M25 Southern Sevenoaks Southeastern
Tonbridge, Hastings,
Guildford, Havant,
Bermondsey
A22

Dorking and
main line connections Portsmouth and Horsham
Gatwick Airport
and Brighton
Brighton, Eastbourne
and Worthing
East Grinstead
and Uckfield
Ashford, Canterbury,
Folkestone and Dover © Transport for London
Isle of Wight Pimlico

Models are never right or wrong, they can only be useful or not!
3
Types of Models

1. Living models: living organisms used to model human

physiology (e.g., mice in science)
2. Iconic models: visual representations / scaled down versions of
the real thing (e.g., maps, model trains)
3. Symbolic models: represent systems in terms of the way they
function (e.g., critical mass models, fables)
• Verbal: using words
• Formal: using maths

Why focus on formal models?

• Requires conceptual precision

• Makes explicit what assumptions are required (can then
consider justifiability)
• Enforces logical consistency

4
Michaelmas Group Summative:
How to Build A Model
What’s the Michaelmas Summative

Group (2-4 students) project (50% weighted) applying the

models/mechanisms discussed to a political phenomenon of your
choosing.
The end product to be submitted is a 3,000 words essay covering the
following elements:

• Introduction to the topic and puzzle

• Background and political context (Actors, Actions, Outcomes,
Preferences)
• Formal model
• Analysis and discussion of your findings
• Conclusion

Detailed instructions under “Assessments” in the Summative

Guidance document
5
Where do models come from?

6
Step 1: An Empirical Observation/Puzzle

7
Finding a Phenomenon/Empirical Observation of Interest

1. You already found something you are interested in

• Find an empirical illustration for scale and illustration of the issue;
if a specific case/situation has sparked your interest, try to identify
the broader underlying phenomena

Examples:

Lee & Pain 2015 8

Finding a Phenomenon/Empirical Observation of Interest

1. You already found something you are interested in

• Find an empirical illustration for scale and illustration of the issue;
if a specific case/situation has sparked your interest, try to identify
the broader underlying phenomena

Examples:

Mathisen 2023 9
Finding a Phenomenon/Empirical Observation of Interest

1. You already found something you are interested in

• Find an empirical illustration for scale and illustration of the issue;
if a specific case/situation has sparked your interest, try to identify
the broader underlying phenomena

2. Follow the news over the next couple of weeks. For criteria of
suitable news items:
• The story is fundamentally about politics
• The story involves actors engaged in some conflict/disagreement
• The story offers some sign of meaningful interaction, actors are
aware of other actors’ actions and perceptions, and pursue their
own advantage
• The story reports multiple points of view and either refrains from
analytical interpretations/causal claims or those are clearly
separated from the factual reporting

10
Finding a Phenomenon/Empirical Observation of Interest

Example from the News (10 August 2023):

FT Analysis by Burn-Murdoch 2023

11
Illustrative Example: Gender Gap in US House of Representa-
tives

US House of Representatives Archive via Vox 12

Step 2: A Theory/Mechanism

13
Finding an Explanation

1. Start with your own experience/intuition - armchair theorizing

2. See what others think

• Google, read and watch the news, discussions on podcasts…
• Search the (non-formal) academic literature ! you can read other
formal papers and models for inspiration, but DO NOT just
copy/past them, as this would constitute plagiarism! You need to
come up with your own model, which might be informed by or a
simplification of an existing model you properly acknowledge.

14
Illustrative Example: Mechanisms Underlying the US Congres-
sional Gender Gap

• Voter discrimination

• Women differ in ambition and costs of running

• Bias in recruitment

• Perception gap: women/man under-/overestimate qualification

15
Step 3: Creating an Analytical Narrative

16
Creating Analytical Narratives

Bringing together the empirical observation and a specific

mechanism.

An analytical narrative is a “biased/focused” story explaining the

empirical observation of interest.

It involves thinking about:

• Who are the actors involved and what actions can they take?
• What beliefs relevant to their actions do they hold?
• How must actors, actions, and beliefs interact to create the
outcome observed?

17
Illustrative Example: US Congressional Gender Gap Narratives

• Perception gap: women/man under-/overestimate qualification

• Two actors: candidates (men/women) deciding to run or not,
voters voting
• Men overestimate their ability; women underestimate their ability;
voters care about performance= f (ability) not gender
• Candidates decide to run given their perceived likelihood of
winning and voters vote

• Voter discrimination
• Two actors: candidates (men/women) deciding to run or not,
voters voting
• For some voters gender is the most important vote choice criteria
! discriminate against women
• Candidates decide to run given their perceived likelihood of
winning and voters vote

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Selecting a Narrative

• That is up to you…pick the one you find most convincing/are

most interested in exploring

• Often narratives can be combined, but if you are planning on

doing so, model each narrative separately first!

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Step 4: Formal Modelling

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The Most Important Rule

KISS: Keep it Simple, Stupid!

• Limit actors to the absolutely necessary ones

• Simplify the actors choices and sequence of play ! limits
outcomes
• Simplify preference orderings

Remember: Useful models are parsimonious

models!

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Necessary Modelling Elements

1. Actors
2. Actions
3. Outcomes and payoffs
4. Preferences and beliefs of actors over outcomes
5. Sequence of play

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Illustrative Example: Modelling the Perception Gap Narrative

Setup:
1 1
• Continuum of potential candidates: 2 men and 2 women
• Benefit of winning B > 0
• Cost of running c > 0
• Each candidate as an ability ✓ 2 R
• Performance in office is ⇡(✓), increasing in ✓
• Voter care only about performance in office, not gender

Perception gap:
W
• A women with ability ✓ perceives her quality to be (✓) < ✓,
with W increasing
M
• A man with ability ✓ perceives his quality to be (✓) > ✓, with
M
increasing

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Illustrative Example: Perception Gap Model’s Sequence of Play

1. Each candidate decides whether to run or not

2. Candidates running are paired randomly to face each other

3. Voter observes a noisy signal of each candidate’s quality and

chooses a winner

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Analysis, Interpretation, and Discussion of the Model

Analysis and Interpretation of the model, which is what we will cover

throughout this term.

The analysis should include the following:

• choice and justification of the solution concept

• derivation of the model’s equilibrium/a
• interpretation of the model’s equilibrium/a and predictions
• critical discussion of the model’s insights and limitations/
possible extensions

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Next Steps

1. Form groups (2-4 students) and/or complete the survey (to be

matched) by 20th October 2023. All groups will be confirmed and
submitter determined by the end of 24th October 2023.

2. Start to identify interesting political phenomena and discuss

which one to investigate. Topics need to be approved by 10th
November 2023.

3. Once topic has been approved consider theoretical mechanisms

and pick one to develop an analytical narrative. Meet with me
during my office hours or after class over coffee to discuss your
analytical narrative.

4. Latest submission date: 15th December 2023 at noon.

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Submission Requirements

Submitter:

• Throughout the project keeps record of meeting and discussions

via the Group Contribution Form
• Final group project document with completed Group
Contribution Form as appendix

All students (including the submitter in each group):

• Completed Individual Performance Questionnaire (online survey

link in Summative Submission Points folder)

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A final word on group work…

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A final word on group work…

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29
Conclusion & Outlook
Take Home Message

• Models are purpose built (designed) abstractions from reality to

study a specific aspect/mechanism of a political phenomena of
interest.

• In line with Occam’s razor: useful models are parsimonious

models

• Models test, build, and replicate theory and thereby enable

knowledge accumulation.

Analysis requires simplicity; beware of incoherence that

passes itself off as complexity.

Dani Roderik in Little & Pepinski (2016, 425)

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Outlook

This week’s lecture:

• Modelling Basics I: Rationality and Choice

• Essential Reading: Shepsle (2010), chapters 1 and 2 (on
Blackboard Learn Ultra pdf scan in ”Michaelmas Week 2” folder)
• Pre-lecture Video: Preference Axioms and the Rational Choice
Paradigm

Next Seminar:

• Big Q & A and exercise session on all the modelling basics

lectures

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