11

Statistics and Probability

Quarter 4 – Module 8
Exploring Regression Analysis

1
Statistics and Probability – Grade 11
Alternative Delivery Mode
Quarter 4 – Module 8: Exploring Regression Analysis

First Edition, 2020

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Published by the Department of Education

Secretary: Leonor Magtolis Briones
Undersecretary: Diosdado M. San Antonio

Development Team of the Module

Writers: Venus A. Boc

Leo Niῇo O. Maniwang
Editor: Marlon S. Jala PhD
Management Team: Bianito A. Dagatan EdD, CESO V
Schools Division Superintendent

Casiana P. Caberte PhD

Assistant Schools Division Superintendent

Felix C. Galacio Jr. PhD

EPS, Mathematics

Josephine D. Eronico PhD

EPS, LRMDS

Printed in the Philippines by Schools Division of Bohol

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E-mail Address: depedbohol@deped.gov.ph

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Learning Competencies:
 Identifies the independent and dependent variables.
M11/12SP-IVi-1
 Calculates the slope and y-intercept of the regression line.
M11/12SP-IVi-3
 Interprets the calculated slope and y-intercept of the regression
line.
M11/12SP-IVi-4
 Predicts the value of the dependent variable given the value of the
independent variable.
M11/12SP-IVj-1
 Solves problems involving regression analysis
M11/12SP-IVj-2

Atthe end of the lesson, you are expected to:

 identify independent and dependent variable;
 calculates the slope and y-intercept of the regression line;
 interprets the calculated slope and y-intercept of the regression line;
 predicts the value of the dependent variable given the value of the
independent variable; and
 solves problems involving regression analysis

Lesson 1: The Independent and Dependent Variable

What is it…

Correlation analysis is a technique used to quantify the associations between

two variables while the regression analysis Is a related technique to assess the
relationship between an outcome variable and one or more risk factors or confounding
variable. The outcome variable is also called the dependent variable and the risk
factors or confounders are called the independent variable.

Examples :

Identify the dependent and independent variables in each of the following pair of
variables:

Pair of Variables Independent Dependent

1. altitude and acceleration due to gravity altitude Acceleration due to

gravity

2. price of goods and the demand demand Price of goods

3. monthly salary and annual income of a Monthly salary Annual income

worker

4. IQ and academic performance of a IQ Academic performance

student

5. Temperature and volume of air in a temperature Volume of air

balloon

Using the letters X and Y, X is normally assigned as the independent variable

and Y is the dependent variable.

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 If two variables are significantly correlated, we can predict the value of the
dependent variable if we know the value of the independent variable. The process is
called regression analysis.
The regression line Y=bX + a is also called the line prediction equation because
we use it to predict the dependent variable Y when the independent variable X is
known. Since in the analysis, only the y distance was considered, the line cannot be
used to predict X from Y.

Examples :

For the given regression line, predict the dependent variable Y, given the values of the
independent variable X.

1. Y= 0.3X + 2.5, (X= 6)

Solution:

Y= 0.3X + 2.5

Y= 0.3(6) + 2.5 (Substitute the value of X which is 6)

Y= 1.8 + 2.5

Y= 4.3

So, from the regression line Y= 0.3X + 2.5, the value of Y when X= 6 is 4.3.

What’s More…

A. For each of the following pairs of variables, Identify the independent and the
dependent variables:

Pair of Variables Independent Dependent

1. Hourly rate and monthly salary of a part-time

professor

2. Total time used and amount of electrical energy

used by a desk lamp

3. Pressure and depth of water

4. Side and area of a square

5. Cost and age of a car

B. For each regression line, predict Y for the given values of X.

1. Y= -0.78X + 23.1, (X= 100) 3. Y= 2.6X + 0.56, (X= 3.5)

2. Y= -3.2X + 6.7, (X= 5) 4. Y= 3.5X + 1.67, (X= 8)

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Lesson 2: The Slope and Y-Intercept of the Regression Line

What is it…
The y-intercept of the regression line is the value of the dependent variable Y
when the independent variable is 0. The slope of the regression line is the change in the
dependent variable Y relative to a one unit change in the independent variable X.
The equation Y=bX + a is the equation of the regression line, where a is the y-intercept and b is
the slope of the regression line.

Examples:

Give the values of the slope b and y-intercept a in the following equation of the
regression line:

1. Y= 1.4X + 3.5 Answer: b= 1.4 (the slope) and a= 3.5 ( the y-intercept)

2. Y= -0.46X + 8.7 Answer: b=-0.46(the slope) and a= 8.7 ( the y-intercept)

The values of a and b can be found using the following formulas: a=

( Σ Y ) ( Σ X 2 )−( Σ X)( Σ XY )
n ( Σ X )−(Σ X )
2 2

n ( ΣX Y )−(Σ X)(Σ Y )
b=
n ( Σ X 2) −(Σ X )2
Examples:

Compute the values of the slope b and y intercept a in the given data. Interpret the
result.
X Y X2 Y2 XY

1 1 1 1 1

1 2 1 4 2

2 4 4 16 8

3 2 9 4 6

4 4 16 16 16

∑X= 11 ∑Y= 14 ∑X2= 31 ∑Y2= 41 ∑XY= 33

n ( ΣX Y )−(Σ X)(Σ Y ) 5 (33 )−(11)(14)

Compute the slope using the formula b= b=
n ( Σ X ) −(Σ X )
2 2 2
5 ( 31 )−(11)
= 0.32

( Σ Y ) ( Σ X 2 )−( Σ X)( Σ XY )
Compute for the y- intercept using the formula a=
n ( Σ X 2 )−(Σ X )2

( 14 ) ( 31 )−(11)(33)
a= 2 = 2.09
5 ( 31 )−(11)
So the slope b is 0.32 which means that every increase of 1 in X there is an increase of .32 in
Y. And the y-intercept a is 2.09, which means that when X is 0, Y is 2.09.

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 What’s More…

A. Give the values of the slope b and the y-intercept a in each of the following equation
of the regression line.

1. Y= 0.3X + 2.5

2. Y= 3.5X + 1.67

3. Y= 2.6X + 0.56

4. Y= -3.2X + 6.7

B. Find the slope b and y-intercept a in the given data below. Interpret the result.
X Y X2 Y2 XY

1 2 1 4 2

2 4 4 16 8

3 3 9 9 9

4 3 16 9 12

5 5 25 25 25

∑X= 15 ∑Y= 17 ∑X2= 55 ∑Y2= 63 ∑XY= 56

Lesson 3: Problems Involving Regression Analysis

What is it…

To determine the regression line or do a regression analysis, we go through the

following steps:
1. Find the value of the correlation coefficient (r).
2. Test the significance of r. If r is significant, proceed to regression analysis (Proceed
to Step 3). If r is not significant, regression analysis cannot be done (Stop).
3. Find the values of a and b.
4. Substitute the values of a and b in the regression line Y= bX + a

Example 1.

The following data shows number of absences and the number of quizzes missed by
five students. If there is a significant relationship between the two variables, predict
the number of quizzes missed by a student who was absent for 6 days.

Student Number of Absences Number of missed Quizzes

1 1 1

2 1 2

3 2 4

6
 4 3 2

5 4 4

Solution:

Steps Solution

1. Identify the dependent and Here, the dependent variable is the number of
independent variables missed quizzes while the independent variable is the
number of absences.

2. Compute the correlation Let us put the data in columns and find the
coefficient (r) using the formula following:

r= ∑X, ∑Y, ∑X2, ∑Y2, ∑XY and substitute them in the

n Σ XY −Σ X ⋅ Σ Y formula:
√[ n Σ X −(Σ X ) ][ n Σ Y −(Σ Y ) ]
2 2 2 2
X Y X2 Y2 XY

1 1 1 1 1

1 2 1 4 2

2 4 4 16 8

3 2 9 4 6

4 4 16 16 16

∑X= 11 ∑Y= 13 ∑X2= 31 ∑Y2= 41 ∑XY= 33

n Σ XY −Σ X ⋅ Σ Y
r=
√[ n Σ X −(Σ X ) ][ n Σ Y −(Σ Y ) ]
2 2 2 2

5(33)−( 11) (13)

r=
√[ 5 (31)−(11) ] [ 5(41)−(13) ]
2 2

r= 0.018

3. Test the significance of r Here n=5 and r= 0.018

using the formula:

t= r
√ n−2
1−r 2
√
t= r
n−2
1−r 2

t= 0.018
√ 5−2
1−(0.018)2
t= 0.054

4. Compare the computed t- Using df= n-2= 5-2=3, α= 0.05, two-tailed test, we
value to the critical value. find from the table that the critical value of t is
3.182

(Note: The t-table is provided on page 13 of this

module.)

5. Make a decision. Since the computed t= 0.054 is less than the critical
t= 3.182, we accept the null hypothesis. So, there is
no significant relationship between the two

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 variables.

6. Summarize the results It appears that there is no significant relationship

between the number of absences and the number of
missed quizzes. Thus, we will not proceed regression
analysis.

Example 2. The following data show the population of the Philippines from 2005 to
2012. If there is a significant relationship between the two variables, find the
regression line and predict the population in 2014.
Year (X) Population (y, in
million)

2005 85.26

2006 86.97

2007 88.71

2008 90.46

2009 91.02

2010 92.6

2011 94.18

2012 95.77

Steps Solution

1. Identify the dependent and Here, the dependent variable is the population while the
independent variables independent variable is the year.

2. Compute the correlation Let us put the data in columns and find the following:
coefficient (r) using the formula
∑X, ∑Y, ∑X2, ∑Y2, ∑XY and substitute them in the
r= formula:
n Σ XY −Σ X ⋅ Σ Y
X Y X2 Y2 XY
√[ n Σ X −(Σ X ) ][ n Σ Y −(Σ Y ) ]
2 2 2 2

2005 85.26 4,020,025 7269.268 170,946.3

2006 86.97 4,024,036 7653.781 174,461.8

2007 88.71 4,028,049 7869.464 178,041

2008 90.46 4,032,064 8183.012 181,643.7

2009 91.02 4,036,081 8284.64 182,859.2

2010 92.6 4,040,100 8574.76 186,126

2011 94.18 4,044,121 8869.872 189,396

2012 95.77 4,048,144 9171.893 192,689.2

∑X= ∑Y= ∑X2= ∑Y2= ∑XY=

16,068 724.97 32,272,620 65,786.69 1,456,163

n Σ XY −Σ X ⋅ Σ Y
r=
√[ n Σ X −(Σ X ) ][ n Σ Y −(Σ Y ) ]
2 2 2 2

r=

8

3. Test the significance of
r using the formula:
t= r
√
n−2
1−r 2
4. Compare the
computed t-value to the
critical value.
5. Make a decision.
6. Summarize the results
7. Compute the values of
a and b in the regression
equation Y= bX + a using
the following formulas
a=
( Σ Y ) ( Σ X 2 )−( Σ X)( Σ XY )
n ( Σ X )−(Σ X )
2 2
n ( ΣX Y )−(Σ X)(Σ Y )
b=
n ( Σ X 2) −(Σ X )2
8. Form the regression
equation
8(1456163)−( 16068 ) (724.97)
√[ 8(32272620)−(16068) ][ 8(65786.69)−(724.97) ]
2 2
r= 0.99
Here n=8 and r= 0.99
t= r
√ n−2
1−r 2
t= 0.99
√ 8−2
1−(0.99)2
t= 17.19
Using df= n-2= 8-2=6, α= 0.05, two-tailed
test, we find from the table that the
critical value of t is 2.447
(Note: The t-table is provided on page 13
of this module)
Since the computed t= 17.19 is greater
than the critical t= 2.447, we reject the
null hypothesis. So, there is significant
relationship between the two variables.
There is a sufficient evidence to conclude
that there is a significant relationship
between the year and the population .
Thus, we will proceed to regression
analysis.
Using the values obtained in Step 2, we
have the following:
( Σ Y ) ( Σ X 2 )−( Σ X)( Σ XY )
a=
n ( Σ X 2 )−(Σ X )2
a=
( 724.97 ) ( 32272620 )−(16068)(1456163)
2
8 ( 32272620 )−(16068)
a= -2814.77
n ( ΣX Y )−(Σ X)(Σ Y )
b=
n ( Σ X 2) −(Σ X )2
8 ( 1456163 )−(16068)(724.97)
b= 2
8 ( 32272620 )−(16068)
b= 1.447
Substitute the values of a and b in the
equation
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 Y= bX + a

Y= 1.447X – 2814.77

The regression equation for predicting the

population of a certain year is Y= 1.44X –
2814.77

9. Predict the population Find the value of Y when X= 2014 in the

in 2014 regression equation

Y= 1.44X – 2814.77

Y= 1.44(2014) – 2814.77

Y= 99.488

So the predicted population in year 2014

is 99.488 (million). Remember that this is
just a predicted value based on the given
data.

What’s More…

A. The following data shows the weight and the average daily allowance of five Grade
11 students. If there is a significant relationship between the two variables, predict the
daily allowance of a student whose weight is 44 kilograms. Show your solution on the
answer sheet provided.

Student Weight in kilograms Average daily allowance

1 39 30

2 40 20

3 41 25

4 42 20

5 43 30

B. The table shows the income of a company for the past 8 years. Answer as directed.

Year 2006 2007 200 2010 2011 2012 201 2014

8 3

Income ( in million pesos) 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.9

a. Find the regression line that will predict the income of the company for a given year.

b. What is the expected income of the company in 2020?

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 Assessment
Direction: Choose the letter that corresponds to the correct answer. Write your
answer in the answer sheet provided.
1. It is a statistical tool that measures the relationship between variables
A. Correlation analysis C. dependent variable
B. Regression analysis D. independent variable

2. Identify the independent variable: amount of fertilizer and the height of a plant
A. amount of fertilizer C. plant growth
B. height of a plant D. none of these
3. Which is the correct independent variable (x) and dependent variable (y)?
A. x- number of study hours and y- grades
B. x- income and y- number of working hours
C. x- body weight and y- food intake
D. none of these

4. Given a regression equation y= 10x + 20, what is y if x= 5?

A. 35 C. 70
B. 110 D. 50

For numbers 5-10, use the data below.

The following data show the age of a car and its average mileage/liter.
Age (in years) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Mileage per liter (in km) 20.6 18.1 16.3 15.5 14.1 13.9 11.2

5. What is the correlation coefficient r?

A. 0.48 C. -0.98
B. -0.48 D. 0.98

6. What is the value of t?

A. 11.01 C. -0.98
B. -11.01 D. 0.98

7.What is the value of the y-intercept a?

A. 19.83 C. 1.39
B. -19.83 D. -1.39

8.What is the value of the slope b?

A. 19.83 C. 1.39
B. -19.83 D. -1.39

9.Find the regression line that will predict the average mileage /liter of the car.
A. y= 1.39x + 19.83 C. y= 19.83x + 1.39
B. y= -1.39x + 19.83 D. y= -19.83x – 1.39

10.Find the average mileage of the car at age 10 years.

A. 5.93 C. 33.73
B. 6.93 D. 4.93

Performance Task # 4
Make a portfolio of all your activity/answer sheets in quarter 4 using a white
folder. Arrange your answer sheets according to module number, module 1 as the top

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and module 8 as the bottom. A Table of Contents is already made for you to fill up,
put it on the topmost part of your compilation.

Reference

Belecina, R. et. al 2016. Statistics and Probability. Manila: Rex

Book Store, Inc.

The t-table

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Source: https://jimgrange.wordpress.com/Statistics Tables:Where do the Numbers
Come From?

TABLE OF CONTENTS

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DATE MODULE / TITLE SCORE
LESSON
Module 1
Lesson 1
Lesson 2
Lesson 3
Module 2
Lesson 1
Lesson 2
Lesson 3
Module 3
Lesson 1
Lesson 2
Lesson 3
Module 4
Lesson 1
Lesson 2
Lesson 3
Module 5
Lesson 1
Lesson 2
Lesson 3
Module 6
Lesson 1
Lesson 2
Lesson 3
Module 7
Lesson 1
Lesson 2
Lesson 3
Module 8
Lesson 1
Lesson 2
Lesson 3
TOTAL SCORE

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 Answer Sheet

Name:
Grade & Section: Score:

Quarter 3 – Module 1
Lesson 1

A.
Independent Dependent

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

B.
1. 2.

3. 4.

Lesson 2

A.
1. 3.

2. 4.
B.

Lesson 3
A.
Steps Solution

1. Identify the dependent and

independent variables

2. Compute the correlation Let us put the data in columns and find the
coefficient (r) using the formula following:

r= ∑X, ∑Y, ∑X2, ∑Y2, ∑XY and substitute them in the

n Σ XY −Σ X ⋅ Σ Y formula:
√[ n Σ X −(Σ X ) ][ n Σ Y −(Σ Y ) ]
2 2 2 2
X Y X2 Y2 XY

1
 ∑X= ∑Y= ∑X2= ∑Y2= ∑XY=

n Σ XY −Σ X ⋅ Σ Y
r=
√[ n Σ X −(Σ X ) ][ n Σ Y −(Σ Y ) ]
2 2 2 2

r=

r=

3. Test the significance of r

using the formula:

t= r
√ n−2
1−r 2
4. Compare the computed t-
value to the critical value.

5. Make a decision.

6. Summarize the results

B.
Steps Solution

1. Identify the dependent and .

independent variables

2. Compute the correlation Let us put the data in columns and find the following:
coefficient (r) using the formula
∑X, ∑Y, ∑X2, ∑Y2, ∑XY and substitute them in the
r= formula:
n Σ XY −Σ X ⋅ Σ Y
X Y X2 Y2 XY
√ [ n Σ X −(Σ X ) ][ n Σ Y −(Σ Y )
2 2 2 2
]

∑X= ∑Y= ∑X2= ∑Y2= ∑XY=

2
 n Σ XY −Σ X ⋅ Σ Y
r=
√[ n Σ X −(Σ X ) ][ n Σ Y −(Σ Y ) ]
2 2 2 2

r=

r=
3. Test the significance of r using
the formula:

t= r
√ n−2
1−r 2
4. Compare the computed t-value
to the critical value.

5. Make a decision.

6. Summarize the results

7. Compute the values of a and b

in the regression equation Y= bX
+ a using the following formulas

( Σ Y ) ( Σ X 2 )−( Σ X)( Σ XY )
a=
n ( Σ X 2 )−(Σ X )2

n ( ΣX Y )−(Σ X)(Σ Y )
b=
n ( Σ X 2) −(Σ X )2
8. Form the regression equation

9. Predict the expected income in

2020

Assessment
1.
2.
3.
4.
5. 6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

3
 Answer Key

Lesson 1
A.
Independent Dependent

1. hourly rate Monthly salary

2. total time used Amount of electrical energy

3. depth of water pressure

4. side of a square Area of a square

5. age of a car cost

B.
1. y= -54.9 2. y= -9.3 3. y= 9.66 4. y= 29.67

Lesson 2
A.
1. b= 0.3 3. b= 2.6
a= 2.5 a= 0.56

2. b= 3.5 4. b= -3.2
a= 1.67 a= 6.7

B. b= 0.5
a= 1.9

Lesson 3

A.
Steps Solution

1. Identify the dependent and Here, the dependent variable is the average daily
independent variables allowance of the student while the independent
variable is the weight in kilograms.

2. Compute the correlation Let us put the data in columns and find the
coefficient (r) using the formula following:

r= ∑X, ∑Y, ∑X2, ∑Y2, ∑XY and substitute them in the

n Σ XY −Σ X ⋅ Σ Y formula:
√[ n Σ X −(Σ X ) ][ n Σ Y −(Σ Y ) ]
2 2 2 2
X Y X2 Y2 XY

39 30 1521 900 1170

40 20 1600 400 800

41 25 1681 625 1025

42 20 1764 400 840

43 30 1849 900 1290

1
 ∑X=205 ∑Y= 125 ∑X2= ∑Y2= ∑XY=
8415 3225 5125

n Σ XY −Σ X ⋅ Σ Y
r=
√[ n Σ X −(Σ X ) ][ n Σ Y −(Σ Y ) ]
2 2 2 2

5 (5125)−( 205 ) (125)

r=
√[ 5 (8415)−(205) ][ 5(3225)−(125) ]
2 2

r= 0

3. Test the significance of r Here n=5 and r= 0

using the formula:

t= r
√n−2
1−r 2
t= r
√ n−2
1−r 2

t= 0
√ 5−2
1−(0)2
t= 0

4. Compare the computed t- Using df= n-2= 5-2=3, α= 0.05, two-tailed test, we
value to the critical value. find from the table that the critical value of t is
3.182

5. Make a decision. Since the computed t= 0 is less than the critical t=

3.182, we accept the null hypothesis. So, there is no
significant relationship between the two variables.

6. Summarize the results It appears that there is no significant relationship

between the weight and the average daily allowance
of the student. Thus, we will not proceed regression
analysis.

B.
Steps Solution

1. Identify the dependent and Here, the dependent variable is income of the company
independent variables while the independent variable is the particular year.

2. Compute the correlation Let us put the data in columns and find the following:
coefficient (r) using the formula
∑X, ∑Y, ∑X2, ∑Y2, ∑XY and substitute them in the
r= formula:
n Σ XY −Σ X ⋅ Σ Y
X Y X2 Y2 XY
√[ n Σ X −(Σ X ) ][ n Σ Y
2 2 2 2
−(Σ Y ) ]
2006 2.2 4,024,036 4.84 4413.2

2007 2.4 4,028,049 5.76 4816.8

2008 2.9 4,032,064 8.41 5823.2

2010 2.5 4,040,100 6.25 5025.0

2011 3.1 4,044,121 9.61 6234.1

2012 3.3 4,048,144 10.89 6639.6

2
 2013 3.6 4,052,169 12.96 7246.8

2014 3.9 4,056,196 15.21 7854.6

∑X= ∑Y= ∑X2= ∑Y2= ∑XY=

16,081 23.9 32,324,879 73.93 48,053.3

n Σ XY −Σ X ⋅ Σ Y
r=
√[ n Σ X −(Σ X ) ][ n Σ Y −(Σ Y ) ]
2 2 2 2

r=
8 (48053.3)−( 16081 ) (23.9)
√[ 8(32324879)−(16081) ] [ 8(73.93)−(23.9) ]
2 2

r= 0.93

3. Test the significance of r using Here n=8 and r= 0.93

the formula:

t= r
√
n−2
1−r 2
t= r
√ n−2
1−r 2

t= 0.93
√ 8−2
1−(0.93)2
t= 6.198

4. Compare the computed t-value Using df= n-2= 8-2=6, α= 0.05, two-tailed test, we find
to the critical value. from the table that the critical value of t is 2.447

5. Make a decision. Since the computed t= 6.198 is greater than the critical
t= 2.447, we reject the null hypothesis. So, there is
significant relationship between the two variables.

6. Summarize the results There is a sufficient evidence to conclude that there is a

significant relationship between the income of the
company and the year. Thus, we will proceed to
regression analysis.

7. Compute the values of a and b
in the regression equation Y= bX +
a using the following formulas
( Σ Y ) ( Σ X )−( Σ X)( Σ XY )
2 a=
a=
n ( Σ X 2 )−(Σ X )2
n ( ΣX Y )−(Σ X)(Σ Y )
b=
n ( Σ X 2) −(Σ X )2
Using the values obtained in Step 2, we have the
following:
( Σ Y ) ( Σ X 2 )−( Σ X)( Σ XY )
n ( Σ X 2 )−(Σ X )2
( 23.9 ) (32324879 )−(16081)(48053.3)
a= 2
8 ( 32324879 )−(16081)
a= -383.25

n ( ΣX Y )−(Σ X)(Σ Y )
b=
n ( Σ X 2) −(Σ X )2

3
 8 ( 48053.3 ) −(16081)(23.9)
b= 2
8 ( 32324879 )−(16081)
b= 0.192

8. Form the regression equation Substitute the values of a and b in the equation

Y= bX + a

Y= 0.192X – 383.25

The regression equation for predicting the height of the

son is Y= 0.192X -383.25

9. Predict the income of the Find the value of Y when X= 2020 in the regression
company in 2020. equation

Y= 0.192X -383.25

Y= 0.192(2020) – 383.25

Y= 4.59

So the predicted income of the company in the year

2020 is 4.59 million pesos. Remember that this is just
a predicted value based on the given data.

Assessment

1. B 6. B
2. A 7. A
3. A 8. D
4. C 9. B
5. C 10. A

Summative Test Module 8

1. A 6. B 11. C
2. B 7. C 12. D
3. C 8. C 13. D
4. D 9. A 14. A
5. A 10. B 15. B

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