Your Guide To

Assessing In-Transit
Visibility Solutions
Everything you need to consider when selecting an ocean
predictive ETA vendor
Introduction
The COVID-19 pandemic has introduced new levels of complexity for logistics and supply chain, with disruptions
to essential operations and planning, also affecting the suppliers of your suppliers and your customers’ customers.
Supply chain visibility solutions are on the rise, with a growing interest and need in knowing where the shipment
is and what is its expected time of arrival (ETA) at the expected location.

In this data-rich world, access to end-to-end visibility translates into making more informed decisions for your
business, responding to unexpected events with confidence, and reducing costs.

However, while the number of the available visibility solutions in the space is increasing, evaluation between
different offerings is extremely difficult, and decisions end up being based on which provider uses more
marketing hype words such as Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, and cryptic statements
lacking meaningful context such as “our predicted ETA are accurate over 90%”.

In this short guide, we share everything you should consider when assessing a vendor for ocean calculated /
forecasted / predictive ETA, and the top questions you need to ask when selecting your provider.

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Planned ETA vs Predictive ETA vs Actual
Time of Arrival

First things first: let’s clarify some terminology. When it comes to ocean Estimated Time of Arrivals (ETA)
information, there are four important timestamps you should know:

1. Planned Expected Time of Arrival (ETA): The ETA you have used in your supply chain planning as the
expected arrival time at the port of discharge.

2. Actual Time of Arrival (ATA): The time when the vessel actually arrives at the port of discharge.

3. Predictive ETA: This is the vendor’s forecasted time of arrival at the port of discharge.

4. Predictive ETA forecasted at: This is the point in time that the Predictive ETA was forecasted. The further
away from the ATA, the lower the confidence level of an accurate Predictive ETA.

Now with the terminology explained, let’s move on to the next step. It is time to answer the following crucial
questions specifically for your ocean shipments, that will help you during this early stage of the vendor evaluation
process.

Do you know that there is more than one ETA on MarineTraffic?

IN-TRANSIT VISIBILITY
5 things to consider when selecting an ocean
predictive ETA vendor

1. How do you define an ocean shipment delay (to trigger an action) for
your business?

Most probably, if you knew that your ocean shipment would arrive with an one-hour delay, you wouldn’t
change anything in your downstream supply chain planning.

For most supply chain and logistics professionals we’ve spoken with, a delay of over one day would be
actionable, in some cases even two days. Find out where that line is for your business and ask the vendor
how accurate their ETA are against your definition.

For the purpose of this example, let’s assume that you would act if the shipment were to arrive with over one
day delay when compared to the planned ETA.

To help you visualise it, the point here is to identify the minimum amount of A below that would trigger an
action for your business.

Pred. ETA
forecasted at Planned ETA Pred. ETA ATA

A Actionable if over 1 day

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2. How many days in advance would a delay prediction be actionable for
your business?

What if you were informed of the delay prediction just one day before the vessel arrived at the port. Would that
information still be actionable? From what point onwards, would a delay prediction be irrelevant as there
wouldn’t be enough time for changing anything in your downstream supply chain?

For the purpose of this example, let’s assume that you would find this information valuable if provided up to
48 hours before the vessel’s actual time of arrival (ATA).

To make it visual, the point here is to identify the minimum amount of B below that would provide enough time
in advance for a change in your downstream planning.

Pred. ETA
forecasted at Planned ETA Pred. ETA ATA

B Actionable if over 2 days

3. Now flip the question. From what point and earlier would a delay
prediction not add significant extra value?

Would your options change if you knew about the delay 20 days in advance or 10 days in advance
(assuming the cargo is in transit)? Try to keep it real and select the time window that really makes sense for your
business. For the purpose of this example, let’s assume this would be 10 days in advance.

To make it visual, the point here is to identify the maximum amount of B that would add significant extra value
in the sense of giving you more or cheaper options.

Pred. ETA
forecasted at Planned ETA Pred. ETA ATA

B Actionable if over 2 days and up to 10 days before arrival

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4. Which service lines or trade routes are relevant for your business?

The provider’s coverage and route complexity in each trade route affects the predictive ETA accuracy. Let’s
assume for this example that most of your shipments are in the ASIA-EUROPE and ASIA-US regions.

5. What types of cargo are relevant for your business?

Many vendors cover just container tracking, which might require using more than one vendor to cover your
visibility needs if you or other parts of your business use other types of cargo. Let’s assume for this example that
you are interested in both containers and dry bulk vessels.

So, in our example, when you reach out to vendors, you should be looking to assess who is better at
forecasting ETA with deviation from the Actual Time of Arrival (ATA) up to 24 hours max, when forecasted
2-10 days before ATA.

More specifically, this example refers to the ASIA-EUROPE, ASIA-US regions, for containers and dry bulk
carriers. It is important to clarify here that any predictive ETA vs ATA accuracy deviation of less than
24 hours would not add more value to the solution, as it would not trigger any different action.

To put it all together, you identify A and B as explained above and then use that understanding to assess which
vendor’s C is not more than A, as anything over A would be as invalid as the Planned ETA.

Pred. ETA
forecasted at Planned ETA Pred. ETA ATA

A Actionable if over 1 day

B Actionable if over 2 days and up to 10 days before arrival

C < 1 day

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Choosing the right path to supply chain
visibility

Now that you have your business-specific requirements at hand, the next and final step is to reach out to
prospective vendors to determine if they can meet these requirements.

When it comes to claims on their ETA forecasting accuracy, most vendors might not be that transparent. If they
are not, you should look elsewhere. If they actually give you some detailed ETA accuracy information, question
the following:

1. Is accuracy calculated compared to the Actual Time of Arrival (ATA)?

First and foremost, you need to understand what they compare against to calculate ETA accuracy.

1. In some cases the comparison is against the Carriers’ ETA, which traditionally is not that great, and also
makes comparison between vendors impossible as the Carrier also changes their ETA while in-transit,
and you won’t ever know which one they are comparing against. And obviously, if both the Carrier and
vendors ETA are wrong, that doesn’t make the prediction right!

2. In some cases, it is against the ETA reported by the crew through the Automatic Identification
System (AIS). Similarly, this ETA also changes while in-transit and is not exactly comparable. And
obviously, if both the crew reported ETA and vendors ETA are wrong, that doesn’t make the prediction
right!

3. The best option is to compare to the Actual Time of Arrival (ATA). In that case, just verify the ATA
definition used by vendors is comparable. i.e. entrance at outer port limits or docking, and whether
this ATA is calculated by the vendor through geospatial mappings or taken from Carrier EDI messages.
Traditionally, the geospatial mappings are more reliable.

2. How frequently is the ETA recalculated?

Is it refreshed after each milestone such as a vessel’s port arrival/departure or is it more of a real-time
re-calculation?

IN-TRANSIT VISIBILITY
3. How frequently are the vessel’s positions updated?
The more frequent the updates the better, as ETA recalculations can quickly identify a potential delay due to
events such as an engine failure or an accident.

4. Which vessel types and sizes are included in the calculations?

In general, the smaller the vessels, the less predictable. If your cargo is primarily in feeder vessels for example,
it is possible that these vessel types are not included in the provided accuracy information, or that they
represent such a small percentage of the total number of vessels included in the accuracy information, that
accuracy might be skewed positively simply because larger vessels are more easy to predict in general.

5. What is the timeframe of voyages included in the calculations?

Is the timeframe sufficient to have statistically valid results? Is the timeframe recent? What if the voyage
timeframe is the whole of 2019? Historical patterns of previous years might not be sufficient to predict
COVID-19 era voyages, since many patterns were disrupted.

6. Is the port congestion considered?

Is the ETA forecasted to the outer port limits (e.g. anchorage area) or to berth considering when the berth will
become available?

7. Is the weather forecast considered in the ETA forecast?

If so, is it just extreme weather events such as tropical storms, or more? For example, headwinds of 6Bf versus
8Bf means a potential speed drop of 2 knots, which translates into 3 hours delay per day for a typical container
vessel sailing through bad weather at 15 knots. Would this delay be factored in by the forecast model?

8. Does the provider cover all relevant types of cargo you are interested in?
If not, the benefits should be extremely significant to make the business case for having more than one vendor.

9. What is the provider’s range of AIS coverage?

There are certain areas around the world where AIS coverage might differ. You should know whether the
provider’s network covers the area you want to monitor. Are they combining positions received by both
a Terrestrial AIS network as well as by satellite to ensure you have the greatest, real-time visibility and most
valuable intelligence? How many satellite providers are they using? The latest trend is also the roaming stations
i.e. AIS stations on board vessels sharing the AIS traffic around the vessel via the vessels internet connectivity.
Is the provider also fusing such a network?

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10. Are canal delays considered in the ETA forecast?
When vessels pass through a canal such as the Suez or Panama Canals, they have to wait in line, and also
traverse in the Canal slowly. The wait time especially is dependent on the canal traffic which is affected by
seasonalities and other factors.

11. How is the platform uptime promise calculated?

You won’t get any ETA if the system is regularly down. Let’s compare two similar promises of 99% uptime, one
vendor calculating uptime per month and the other per year.

• 99% uptime per year = 3.65 days total downtime per year: Is it acceptable not to get updated
ETA for almost four consecutive days? We believe not.
• 99% uptime per month = 7.2 hours total downtime per month: Is it acceptable not to get
updated ETA for almost seven consecutive hours, every month? We believe yes.

12. How can you access this data?

Ask if your potential vendor is able to deliver the data visibility solution in the form that you need. Can you
only view this data through an online platform and tools or is it possible to pull it into your system using
an API solution? Also, being able to easily use the data is essential, so, remember to also check their level
of support and a demonstration of the solution.

Conclusion
Amid a period of serious resource constraints and great uncertainty, combined with a constant pressure to stay
competitive and continuously move at the speed of the customer, investing in supply chain visibility is the
only safe route for you to take.

Make sure you use this framework when assessing your prospective vendor for ocean predictive ETA, and
get detailed answers to all your questions.

As an industry professional, you will have to choose your In-Transit Visibility Solution, that is easier for you
to understand and use, ensuring the more reliable, secure and faster transfer of data, and eventually helping
you future-proof your business and bring in more advantages.

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 Ready to supercharge your supply
chain visibility?

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enables you to access the best possible information on the status
of all seaborne shipments, updated 24/7/365.

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