Lecture 1

Course Coordinator: Dr. Larry Baum

Department of Psychiatry
Music (light green text won’t be on quiz)
— Dr. Larry Baum (Course Coordinator and Tutor)
o BA in Chemistry & Physics (Harvard Univ., USA)
o PhD in Neuroscience (Univ. California, San Diego, USA)
o Research Officer in Department of Psychiatry
o Call me “Dr. Baum” or “Larry”.
— Charis Tang (Tutor)

— Nicole Lau (Tutor)

— Dr. Stacey Cherny created the course. He now

works in Israel.
— Teachers
— Scientific method
— Title
— What is progress?
— History
— Topics
— Administrator
How do we find out things about our subject area
– evolution of civilization?
 — Ask the authorities?
— Search the internet?
— Survey the opinions of many people?
— Discuss with friends to reach an agreement?
— Vigorous debate between adversaries?

The Dialectic Method

1. Formulate the question.
2. Define the terms.
3. Propose different viewpoints (Thesis and Antithesis).
4. Rationally discuss their merits and difficulties.
5. Make a conclusion (Synthesis).
Socrates Plato
 — Imagination generates ideas.
— Ideas should
o be logically consistent.
o generate observable predictions.
o be tested by experiments. “Observation
is the ultimate and final judge of the
truth of an idea”.
Richard Feynman,
The Meaning of It All
http://www.nytimes.com/books/first/f/feynman-meaning.html?pagewanted=all
 — idk
— The Uncertainty of Science
— “All scientific knowledge is uncertain…. Because we
have the doubt, we then propose looking in new
directions for new ideas”
— “freedom to doubt….is to be welcomed as the possibility
of a new potential for human beings”
— The question “Should I do this?” has two parts:
1. “If I do this, what will happen?” Science may answer
this.
2. “Do I want this to happen?” Science can’t answer this
because it depends on personal values.

http://www.nytimes.com/books/first/f/feynman-meaning.html?pagewanted=all
Title
— What is evolution?
— What is civilization?
— What will we cover in the course?
— A process of formation or growth
— A specific example in biology is
survival of the fittest (natural
selection).
o There is natural genetic variation.
o When environment changes, some
variants raise chance of surviving and
reproducing (being selected).
o Individuals with favorable variants
increase. The species changes.
— Natural selection of genes, not really
individuals
— Individuals are just vehicles to
promote survival and spread of
genes
— Richard Dawkins – The Selfish Gene
explained:
— Content of videos will be tested on
quizzes.
— What are properties of successful genes (genes
that survive and spread)?
— Like an ad that goes viral
— Imagine the next slide is a viral ad. Maybe it
can answer the question!
3 Characteristics of Highly Successful Genes
What makes a gene successful?
(Having many copies of itself around)

— Longevity – lives long

— Fecundity – copies often
— Fidelity – copies accurately
— On phone or computer, on the CCGL9042 Moodle page,
go to the Lecture 1 survey
(https://moodle.hku.hk/mod/questionnaire/view.php?id=3039966)
— I’ll show you glimpses of 6 pictures of trees.
— Some pictures have a moth, and some don’t.
— After each picture, click Yes if you saw a moth, No if you
didn’t.
— The moths look like this:

• Ready?
Imagine you are a bird looking for moths to eat.

Grey moths are easier to see than green moths.

Grey moths would get eaten more.

Green moths would become more common.

The species may evolve from grey to green.

— Sometimes, DNA will get an error in its sequence.
o Most of the errors are harmless.
o A few are harmful.
o Rarely, one is helpful. The organism survives, reproduces,
and spreads.
— Genes take generations to spread.
— Memes may spread much faster than genes.
Example:
Example:

But memes are not only funny photos on social media.

— A thought: could be a method, a song, an idea, a
photo, an ad, a philosophy, etc.
— Like helpful genes, attractive memes spread if they
compete in their environment.
o For genes, the environment is the world, with problems
like diseases, famine, and war.
o For memes, the environment is our brains, with
obstacles like emotions and distractions.
— Memes may evolve much faster than genes.
Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene
— Big Bang Theory explains the meme:

o Which memes spread?

o Which memes failed?

— We have a huge capacity for memes and form a

massive collective intelligence, leading to…
— Features such as
o Government
o Writing
o Cities
o Trade
o Money
o Culture
o …
 Go to kahoot.it or the QR code on the following web page
https://play.kahoot.it/v2/?quizId=f1dd6e22-ad70-4f03-8fa1-2ff17f9f04d8

From Max Roser, of Our World in Data

— The journey from simple
hunter-gatherers to
modern society
— The course follows this trek:
o How civilization developed
o Trade & exchange as keys
for economy & knowledge
o Massive improvements in
quality of life
o Learning from history to
improve the future
— Quality of life Health
o Health
o Leisure time
o Entertainment Wealth
o Knowledge
o Happiness
o Security
o Environment
— Quantity of life
o Lifespan
— Building on and combining
previous achievements
— Manipulating the
environment
— Memes
— Specialization and trade
 Life and Death in the USA

https://koshland-science-museum.org/sites/all/exhibits/exhib_infectious/public_health_02.jsp
http://alfin2101.blogspot.hk/2011/09/is-this-historical-reprieve-from.html
From The Rational Optimist
From The Rational Optimist
From The Rational Optimist
now
From The Rational Optimist
Applying the scientific method to the evolution of civilization requires
considering the history of the human species.
But events are so complicated. How can we understand them?
"every complicated Now is simple--once it's Past."--Albert Goldbarth

OK, history is simple. But…

"What we have learned from history is

that we don't learn from history." – George Hegel

Anyway, in this course, let’s try.

Though sometimes we
may make mistakes:
 Hunter-gatherers
Small tribes
Stone tools
Fire
Language
Art

Farming
Settlements
Metal tools

10,000 4,000
 Israel &
Judah

Egypt Mesopotamia

Maya
India

China
 Socrates Confucius

“Do not do to others what angers you if done
to you by others.”
“Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a
hard battle.”
“Wisdom comes to each of us when we
realize how little we understand.”
“What you do not want done to yourself, do not
do to others.”
“To be wronged is nothing unless you continue to
remember it.”
“Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s
ignorance.”
Christianity Judaism

Islam Buddhism Hinduism

 “Measure what is measurable, and
make measurable what is not.”

Galileo (1564-1642)

“I can calculate the motion of the

heavenly bodies, but not the
madness of the people.”

Newton (1642-1726)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Art#/media/File:Art-portrait-collage_2.jpg
 Technological innovations led to machines
that increased output, used less labour,
and raised income.

Gross Domestic Product

— Studying human progress requires both
qualitative and quantitative approaches.
— I’ll review how to understand and work with
amounts.
– Smaller
• deci (d) = 0.1 = 10-1
• centi (c) = 0.01 = 10-2
• milli (m) = thousandth = 10-3
• micro (µ) = millionth = 10-6
• nano (n) = billionth = 10-9
• pico (p) = trillionth = 10-12
• femto (f) = quadrillionth = 10-15
– Bigger
• deka (da) = 10 = 101
• hecto (h) = 100 = 102
• kilo (k) = 1000 = 103
• mega (M) = million = 106
• giga (G) = billion = 109
• tera (T) = trillion = 1012
• peta (P) = quadrillion = 1015
– nanometer (nm): width of several atoms
– micrometer (μm): width of several viruses
– millimeter (mm): thickness of an Octopus card
– meter: a couple of steps
– kilometer (km): size of HKU
– megameter (Mm): Hong Kong to Chongqing or Manila
• 10 megameters from the Equator to a Pole
• 20 Mm to the opposite side of the Earth
– gigameter (Gm): 2-3 times the distance to the Moon from Earth
– microliter (μl): a cubic mm; a raindrop
– milliliter (ml): a cubic cm; a capsule
– liter: a cubic decimeter; a water bottle
– kiloliter (kl): a cubic meter; several bathtubs
– megaliter (Ml): a cubic dekameter; this room
– milligram (mg): a μl of water
– gram (g): a ml of water
– kilogram (kg): a liter of water
– megagram (Mg): a ton; a kl of water
– gigagram (Gg): a kiloton; a Ml of water
– Understanding the meaning of a roughly correct answer is
often better than blindly calculating an exact answer.
– Why? Our goal should often be to know general sizes so that
we can explore major causes or effects, not to show how well
we can perform calculations.
– You can estimate much faster and easier than you can
calculate exactly, and the answer is often just as useful.
– So, let’s practice estimation.
– I want to fly all the way around the world.
• Estimate how far it will be.
– It’s 20 Mm to the other side of Earth, so it’s about 40 Mm.
• The flight times total around 2.5 days. How fast will the planes fly?
– 40 Mm/60 hr = 2/3 x 1 Mm/hr = 0.67 x 1000 km/hr = about 700 km/hr
– How long could all reservoirs in Hong Kong supply everyone
in the world with drinking water?
• How much do people drink?
– A person drinks about 2 liters/day. There are 8 billion people. So about 16 Gl/day.
• How much do the reservoirs hold?
– I have no idea! Therefore, I must give up now.
– No! Don’t give up. Guesstimate!
– How?
– Guess super low and super high. The answer should be somewhere between.
– Um. Okaaaaay. That sounds weird, but I’ll give it a try:
» Low: 1 km long x 1 km wide x 20 m deep = 20 k x k m3 = 20 M kl = 20 Gl
» High: 5 km x 5 km x 100 m = 2500 M kl = 2.5 Tl
» (Actual: 600 M kl = 600 Gl. Our super-crude guess included the right answer!)
• Divide: 20-2500 Gl / 16 Gl/day = 1-150 days
– If sending 1 kg costs HK$10 by air and $1 by ground, how
much more would it cost to send that water by air than
ground?
• The error in volume is much bigger than the small cost by ground, so
just ignore the cost by ground.
• 20-2500 Gl x $10/kg
• A liter of water weighs 1 kg.
• 20-2500 Gl x $10/l = 200-25,000 G$ = 200 billion to 25 trillion HK$
– How do you combine the errors of two estimates?
1. Use the geometric midpoint of all but one range.
2. Average the errors of each estimate.
– Example:
• Estimate carbon dioxide emission caused by gasoline cars.
• Cars: 0.5-2 billion
• Distance/car: 5-50 Mm/yr
• Fuel economy: 5-20 km/l
• CO2: 1-5 kg/l
• CO2/distance: (1-5 kg)/(5-20 km)~(1-5 kg)/(10 km)~(.1-.5 g/m)
• Distance x CO2/distance: (0.5-2 G)(5-50 Mm/yr)(.1-.5 g/m)~
(1 G)(15 Mm/yr)(.1-.5 g/m)~1.5-7.5 Pg/yr
• Actual: 3 Pg/yr
– Now try a quiz: https://play.kahoot.it/v2/?quizId=c2d58674-
5a0a-485e-8789-2d1d3311fe6c
– The actual number of deaths by travel:
• Road: 4 deaths / Tm
• Air: 0.1 deaths / Tm
• Air is 40x safer than road.
– Using correct units helps us understand the situation.
– Example 1:
• Wrong: “The country of Northeastern Slothia’s debt is 150% of its
income.”
• Why? Units of debt are currency, but units of income are currency per
time.
• Fix: Make both sides of the equation currency.
• Right: “The country of Northeastern Slothia’s debt is 18 months of its
income.”
• Advantage: We can see how long it takes for income to repay debt.
– Example 2:
• Wrong: “The capacity of Southwestern Koala Steel Company’s steel
mills is 2 million kilograms.”
• Why? Units of steel production are mass per time, but the sentence
doesn’t state the time. Also, million thousand grams is unnecessarily
complicated.
• Fix: State the time and simplify the amount.
• Right: “The capacity of Southwestern Koala Steel Company’s steel
mills is 2 Gg per year.”
• Advantage: It’s simpler and clearer.
— The Rational Optimist, by Matt Ridley
— Sapiens, by Yuval Noah Harari
— By Matt Ridley
— He introduces the book:
(16:10).
— By Yuval Harari
— A very brief introduction:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y
BRavrP2sgw (47 sec).
— This is a communication-intensive course,
designed to improve your oral and visual
communication abilities.
— Watch the video here, half-way down the
page, on the right: https://cics.hku.hk/ (0:51)
o Course outline: download and read it tonight.
o Tutorial: weekly
o Quiz: in each lecture, starting from Lecture 3
o Presentation: near the end of the course.
— Demonstrate an understanding and awareness of the various
domains of human progress.
— Describe and explain the basic principles of evolutionary
theory as a model for human progress.
— Demonstrate an understanding of how trade and
specialization are central to human advancement.
— Apply knowledge and understanding of evolutionary theory,
psychology, and the scientific method to solving several
societal problems.
— Develop and demonstrate ability to speak effectively, display
data in graphs, and convey messages by integrating text and
graphics.
— Groups of ~13 students
— Meet 50’ each week, starting next Monday or Tuesday.
— Discuss lectures and reading and apply to problems in society.
— No preparation usually needed
— Signup:
o After 10 pm tonight
o Questionnaire on My eLearning tab of HKU Portal
o You can select your timeslot preference: first come, first served.
o Smaller tutorials give you more chance to speak and earn
participation points, so consider choosing the 9:30 AM tutorial.
— 30% tutorial participation (quality and quantity)
o Don’t just attend tutorials.
o Speak up during discussions, with thoughtful answers and questions.

— 30% in-class quizzes

o In every lecture, starting with Lecture 3
o 8 multiple choice questions
o On reading and lectures, including videos, since previous quiz

— 40% group presentation

o Prepared by a group of 3-4 students but graded individually
o Present it near the end of the course
— Added to overall quiz score at end of
semester
— Memes
o See Moodle

o Up to 1 each lecture week

o Funny, original, and relevant to reading or lecture

— Added to overall presentation score at
end of semester
— Improving lecture slides
o See Moodle

o Up to 1 submission per lecture

— SFTL: Student Feedback on Teaching and Learning
— At end of course
— An online questionnaire
— You will rate the course and our performance.
— Your suggestions will help us improve the course in
the future.
— You are also welcome to suggest improvements to
us any time.
— Student volunteers
— Very interested in the Common Core program
— Help advise and enhance the CC program
— If you may want to be one, contact me or the
CC program: Emily Chan (chiting@hku.hk)
— A HKU
Chrome
extension
to remind
you of
school
deadlines
— Optional:
You may
download
and use it if
you want
— Plagiarism is copying published or unpublished text or ideas
without giving credit to the source.
— HKU and many employers consider plagiarism a serious
offence.
— Can’t we use references?
— Yes! You should use information from references.
— But you should assemble it using your own thoughts and words.
— Avoid copying sentences or even long phrases from references. (But if
you must, then use quotes.)
— Don’t use the same or very similar material as current or past students.
— List your sources on presentations.
— The scientific method
— Questions
— Hypotheses
— Discourse
— Experiments

— Human societies have evolved

o from small bands of hunter-gatherers to cities and states supported
by farming, and finally through industrialization to modern mixed
capitalist / socialist economies.
o Specialization and trade drove this process.
The End