The Evolution of Civilization

CCGL 9042

Lecture 1: Introduction
Course Coordinator:
Dr Larry Baum
Faculty Of Medicine
Introduction of teachers

Method of inquiry and the scientific method

Title

What is progress?
Lecture
Human history Outline
Topics

Administration
Introduction of Teachers
Dr Larry Baum (Course coordinator)
o From US
o BA in Chemistry & Physics from Harvard University, United States
o PhD in Neuroscience from University of California, San Diego, US
o Former associate professor in School of Pharmacy, CUHK
o Now a research officer in Faculty of Medicine, HKU
o Teaches and does research on genetics and molecular biology of depression
o An author on over 147 scientific articles: http://bit.ly/1iDhY4D
o Call me “Dr. Baum” or “Larry”.
o Contact me at lwbaum@hku.hk
Introduction of Teachers
Dr Jack Tsao (Tutor)
Born in Taiwan, grew up in Australia. Bachelor of Economics and Science
(Biochemistry), Masters in Applied Finance, and PhD in Education from University of
Queensland, Australia. Over 12 combined years of experience within business banking
and sales and leadership consulting, working with Fortune 500 companies such as JP
Morgan Chase and BNP Paribas. Ex-entrepreneur and CEO in a USD40+ million per
annum distribution startup until 2017.

Dr Stacey Cherny (Course creator)

Thanks to Dr Cherny for creating this course and teaching it until 2017. He now works
at Tel Aviv University in Israel. He previously worked at HKU, Oxford, and King’s College
London, and received his PhD & MA in Psychology at University of Colorado Boulder.
Method of
How do we fi nd out
things about our
subject area –
Inquiry evoluti on of
civilizati on?
How to find truth?
Ask the authorities?
Search the internet?
Survey the opinions of many people?
Discuss with friends to reach an agreement?
Vigorous debate between adversaries?
The Dialectic Method
1. Formulate the question.
2. Define the terms.
3. Propose different viewpoints (Thesis
and Antithesis).
4. Rationally discuss their merits and
difficulties.
5. Make a conclusion (Synthesis).

Socrates Plato
The Method of Science
 Imagination generates ideas.
 Ideas should:
• be logically consistent.
• generate observable predictions.
• be tested by experiments. “Observation is the ultimate and
final judge of the truth of an idea”.

 Science relies on research methods such

as empirical observations, experiments,
formulate theories, and using tools such
as mathematics to make sense of
observations.
Richard Feynman (1918 – 1988)
Theoretical Physicist, Nobel Prize in Physics 1965
Limits of science

idk
◦ The Uncertainty of Science

◦ “All scientific knowledge is uncertain…. Because we have the doubt,

we then propose looking in new directions for new ideas”

◦ “freedom to doubt….is to be welcomed as the possibility of a new

potential for human beings”

The question “Should I do this?” has two parts:

1. “If I do this, what will happen?” Science may answer this.

2. “Do I want this to happen?” Science can’t answer this

because it depends on personal values.

http://www.nytimes.com/books/first/f/feynman-meaning.html?pagewanted=all
 The discovery of
ignorance
The scientific method is unique because it does not declare
itself as the final and absolute truth. The assumption is that
we do not know everything.
“The willingness to admit ignorance has made modern
science more dynamic, supple, and inquisitive” compared to
other sociopolitical orders.
Scientific revolution is a revolution of ignorance, not a
revolution of knowledge.

Reference: Chapter 14 of Harari YN, 2015, Sapiens: a brief history of

Photo by Jeremy Thomas (@jeremythomasphoto). humankind.
 Politics and science
Politico-economic systems often start with a belief.
• They may then find a scientific theory to support the
belief, but don’t use science, which would conduct
experiments to modify the theory.
o For example, Nazis used racial theories to support their genocidal
policies.
o Or Communists used Marx’s theories to validate their economic
principles and political agendas.
• Or they may not involve science.
o For example, the liberal humanist idea of the intrinsic worth and
rights of all human beings
Nazi racial charts used theories unscientifically to o Or religious systems
argue that Slavs, Black, Arabs, and Jews were inferior
to White Nordic people. Photo courtesy of Bezirk
Unterfranken Hauptverwaltung.

Reference: Chapter 14 of Harari YN, 2015, Sapiens: a brief history of humankind.

 Title

CCGL9042
Global Issues

The Evolution of
Civilization
Street graffiti, Paris, France.
Meaning of the
title

What is evolution?
What is civilization?
What will we cover in
the course?

Machu Picchu, Aguas Calientes, Peru. Photo by

Babak Fakhamzadeh (@mastababa).
What is evolution?
A process of formation or growth
A specific example in biology is survival of the
fittest (natural selection).
o There is natural genetic variation.

o When environment changes, some variants raise chance of

surviving and reproducing (being selected).

o Individuals with favorable variants increase. The species

changes.
The Selfish Gene
Natural selection of genes, not individuals
Individuals are just vehicles to promote survival and
spread of genes
Richard Dawkins – The Selfish Gene explained:
https://youtu.be/j9p2F2oa0_k?t=9 (to 2:54)
Which genes spread?
What are properties of successful genes
(genes that survive and spread)?
Like an ad that goes viral
Imagine the next slide is a viral ad.
Maybe it can answer the question!
3 Characteristics
of Highly
Successful
Genes
What makes a gene successful?
(Having many copies of itself around)

Longevity – lives long

Fecundity – copies often
Fidelity – copies accurately
Example of biological evolution
The moths look like this: On phone or computer, on the CCGL9042
Moodle page, go to the Lecture 1 survey.
I’ll show you glimpses of 6 pictures of trees.
Some pictures have a moth, and some don’t.
After each picture, click Yes if you saw a moth,
No if you didn’t.

Ready?
Picture 1
Picture 2
Picture 3
Picture 4
Picture 5
Picture 6
Example of biological
evolution
Imagine you are a bird looking for moths to eat.

Grey moths are easier to see than green moths.

Grey moths would get eaten more.

Green moths would become more common.

The species may evolve from grey to green.

Rainbow bee-eater with moth.

Photo by David Clode(@davidclode)
Example of
biological
evolution

Peppered moth mystery solved

(BBC News)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndD7XtLraFw (2:12)
How do genes evolve?
Sometimes, DNA will get an error in its sequence.
• Most of the errors are harmless.

• A few are harmful.

• Rarely, one is helpful. The organism survives, reproduces, and spreads.

Genes take generations to spread.

Memes

Memes may spread

much faster than genes.

Doge meme – much popular and

wow meme.
Memes
Example:
唐英年 (Henry Tang) x 非常好
破壞之王 (Very Good Love on
Delivery)
But memes are not only funny
photos on social media.
Memes
Example:
Confused Nick Young
The Meme

A thought: could be a method, a song, an idea, a

photo, an ad, a philosophy, etc.
Like helpful genes, attractive memes spread if
they compete in their environment.
o For genes, the environment is the world, with
problems like diseases, famine, and war.
o For memes, the environment is our brains, with
obstacles like emotions and distractions.

Memes may evolve much faster than genes.

Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene

The Meme
Big Bang Theory explains the meme:
• Which memes spread?
• Which memes failed?

Big Bang Theory explains Meme Hypothesis

(from Series 4 Episode 20 – The Herb Garden Germination)
http://youtu.be/onVxp40MisI (3:49)
Memetic evolution

Memes (ideas, and culture) are like mental infections or parasites that
use human minds as unwitting hosts, multiplying and spreading from
one host to another.
Memes may be beneficial or harmful to the host. For example:
• The meme of heaven may induce humans to sacrifice their lives.
• The meme of language can help people coordinate and improve their lives.
We have a huge capacity for memes and form a massive collective
intelligence, leading to…

Reference: Chapter 14 of Harari YN, 2015, Sapiens: a brief history of humankind.

 Civilization
Government
Writing
Cities
Trade
Money
Culture

Pyramids of Giza and the Sphinx, Egypt.

Human History
Applying the scientific method
to the evolution of civilization
requires considering the history
of the human species.

洛神賦圖 (Nymph of the Luo River).

Painted by Gu Kaizhi of Eastern Jin Dynasty.
 Early developments
Hunter-gatherers
Small tribes
Stone tools
Fire
Language
Art

Farming
Settlements
Metal tools

10,000 years ago 4,000 years ago

Stages of Human Evolution

Reference: Chapter 1 of Harari YN, 2015, Sapiens: a brief history of humankind.

Early developments
Egypt Mesopotamia India

Israel & Judah

China
Maya
 Philosophy
Socrates Confucius

“Do not do to others what angers you if done to you by
others”
“Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard
battle”
“Wisdom comes to each of us when we realize how
little we understand”
“What you do not want done to yourself, do not do to others”
“To be wronged is nothing unless you continue to remember
it”
“Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance”
Religion
Christianity Judaism

Islam Buddhism Hinduism

Literature
“All the world's a stage, and all the men and
women merely players: they have their exits and
their entrances; and one man in his time plays
many parts, his acts being seven ages.”

William Shakespeare (1564-1616)

“A day wasted on others is not wasted on one's

self.”

Charles Dickens (1812-1870)

Prosperity
“All mankind … being all equal and independent, no one
ought to harm another in his life, health, liberty or
possessions”

John Locke (1632-1704)

Philosopher

“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the

brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from
their regard to their self interest”

Adam Smith (1723-1790)

Economist
Science
“Measure what is measurable, and make
measurable what is not”

Galileo (1564-1642)
Astronomer

“I can calculate the motion of the heavenly bodies,

but not the madness of the people”

Isaac Newton (1642-1726)

Mathematician
Industrialisation
Technological innovations
led to machines that
increased output, used less Change in real income (1500 - 1950)
labour, and raised income.

Gross Domestic Product

Hindsight Fallacy
Looking back on history, the path we
took seems inevitable. But the future
has many paths. Why did we take
one path but not another?
Biology, geography, and economics
influence the path, but randomness
plays a big role.
Knowing more about history The Dormition of the Virgin at Chora Museum in Istanbul, Turkey.

introduces more doubt and makes it

In 313 AD, Emperor Constantine made Christianity the official
harder, not easier, to explain why an religion of the Roman Empire. Christianity was previously regarded
outcome was inevitable. as just an Eastern sect, and believers were highly persecuted.

Reference: Chapter 13 of Harari YN, 2015, Sapiens: a brief history of humankind.

Chaos makes history hard to predict
o Level one chaos systems
 Small variations in initial conditions can drastically
change the outcome.
 Butterfly effect
 We can build better models to forecast more
accurately.
 Example: weather
o Level two chaos systems
 Influenced by predictions about it.
 Thus cannot predict accurately.
 Examples: political movements and revolutions,
Butterfly and mirror the stock market
https://www.maxpixel.net/Butterfly-Png-Butterfly-Transparent-Background-3192713

Reference: Chapter 13 of Harari YN, 2015, Sapiens: a brief history of humankind.

What is
progress?
Evolution of
civilization
The journey from simple hunter-
gatherers to modern society
The course follows this trek:
• How civilization developed
• Trade & exchange as keys for economy &
knowledge
• Massive improvements in quality of life
• Learning from history to improve the
future

Judge Harry Pregerson Interchange, Los Angeles USA.

Photo by Denys Nevozhai (@dnevozhai)
 Why does economy matter?
Health
Leisure time Health
Quality of Entertainment Quantity
Knowledge
life Happiness of life
Security Wealth Lifespan
Environment
 How did society
progress?

Building on and combining

previous achievements
Manipulating the
environment
Ideas / Memes
Specialization and trade

Ocean clouds seen from space.

Photo by NASA
The course book
The course is based on the book The Rational
Optimist by Matt Ridley.
He introduces the book:
https://www.ted.com/talks/matt_ridley_when_ideas_have_sex (17 min).
Optional book
You may also read the book Sapiens by Yuval
Harari.
A very brief introduction:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBRavrP2sgw (47 sec).
Progress in longevity
Life and Death in the USA

https://koshland-science-museum.org/sites/all/exhibits/exhib_infectious/public_health_02.jsp
Progress in peace

http://alfin2101.blogspot.hk/2011/09/is-this-historical-reprieve-from.html
Progress in food

From The Rational Optimist

Progress in overpopulation

From The Rational Optimist

Progress in pollution

From The Rational Optimist

Projections for the economy

now
From The Rational Optimist
Topics
Lecture 1: Introduction to evolutionary theory and overview of civilization
Lecture 2: Putting our heads together: Exchange after 200,000 years ago
Lecture 3: Trading emotions: Trust and rules after 50,000 years ago
Lecture 4: Growing agriculture: Farming after 10,000 years ago
Lecture 5: Rising cities: Market places after 5,000 years ago
Lecture 6: Population explosion: Malthus’s trap after 1,000 years ago
Lecture 7: Measures of success: The goals of government
Lecture 8: Energy: Release of slaves after 1700
Lecture 9: Invention: Accelerating returns after 1800
Lecture 10: Turning points: Perennial pessimism after 1900
Lecture 11: Climate change: Causes, consequences, and solutions after 2000
Lecture 12: The future: Rational optimism
Administration

Photo by Marven Meyer (@marvelous)

 Course Learning
Outcomes
Demonstrate an understanding and awareness of the various domains
of human progress.

Describe and explain the basic principles of evolutionary theory as a

model for human progress.

Demonstrate an understanding of how trade and specialization are

central to human advancement.

Apply knowledge and understanding of evolutionary theory,

psychology, and the scientific method to solving several societal
problems.

Develop and demonstrate ability to speak effectively, display data in

graphs, and convey messages by integrating text and graphics.

Photo by David Travis (@dtravisphd).

Communication-intensive Course

Introduction to CIC:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-s-EjZhP90I&rel=0 (2:13)
 Moodle
Course outline: download and read it tonight.
Tutorial: select one from 9 pm today (first come,
first served).
Quiz: in each lecture, starting from Lecture 3
Presentation: near the end of the course.

Photo by Mia Baker (@miabaker).

Tutorials
Groups of ~12 students
Meet 1 hour per week.
Discuss lectures and reading and apply to problems in
society.
No preparation is needed.
Sign up 9 pm tonight until 9 pm this Saturday.
• Questionnaire on Moodle

• You can select your timeslot preference.

• Smaller tutorials give you more chances to speak and earn participation
points, so consider choosing the timeslots which fewer students
selected.
Assessment of you
30% tutorial participation (quality and quantity)
• Don’t just attend tutorials.

• Speak up during discussions, with thoughtful answers and questions.

30% in-class quizzes

• In every lecture, starting with Lecture 3

• 6 multiple choice questions

• On reading and lectures (including videos) since previous quiz

40% group presentation

• Prepared by a group of 3-4 students but graded individually

• Present it near the end of the course

Assessment of us

SFTL: Student Feedback on Teaching and Learning

(An online questionnaire at the end of course)
Anonymous feedback through course Moodle
page.
Email or talk to us directly in class or during
consultation hours.
Your suggestions will help us improve the course
in the future.
 CC Student
Consultants
Student volunteers very interested in the Common
Core program to help advise and enhance the CC
program
If you may want to be one, contact me or the CC
administrative staff:
Emily Chan
Senior Executive Assistant
chiting@hku.hk
(852) 2219 4957

Prof. Gray Kochhar-Lindgren Dr. Nicol Pan

Director of Common Core Associate Director of Common Core
AssignTrack@HKU
HKU Chrome extension to remind you of
school deadlines
Optional: You may download and use it
if you want
Don’t plagiarize
o What is plagiarism?
• Plagiarism is copying published or unpublished text or ideas without
giving credit to the source.
• HKU and many employers consider plagiarism a serious offence.
o Can’t we use references?
• Yes! You should use information from references.
• But you should assemble it using your own thoughts and words.
o How can we use references?
• Avoid copying sentences or even long phrases from references. (But if
you must, then use quotes.)
• Don’t use the same or very similar material as current or past students.
• List your sources on reports or presentations.
Photo by Mathew Schwartz (@cadop)

Conclusion
The scientific method
• Questions
• Hypotheses
• Discourse
• Experiments

Human societies have evolved

• From small bands of hunter-gatherers to cities and states supported
by farming, and finally through industrialization to modern mixed
capitalist / socialist economies.
• Specialization and trade drove this process.
The End