26/10/2023, 10:52 Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) | U.S.

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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 a.m. EDT, Thursday, October 26, 2023
BEA 23–49

Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2023

(Advance Estimate)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in
the third quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released
by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased
2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or
subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to “Source Data for the
Advance Estimate” on page 2). The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based
on more complete data, will be released on November 29, 2023.

(/system/files/gdp3q23_adv.PNG)

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The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, private

inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, federal
government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset
by a decrease in nonresidential fixed investment (table 2). Imports, which are a
subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and

goods. Within services, the leading contributors were housing and utilities,
health care, financial services and insurance, and food services and
accommodations. Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were
other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs) as well as recreational goods
and vehicles. The increase in private inventory investment reflected increases in
manufacturing and retail trade. Within nonresidential fixed investment, a
decrease in equipment was partly offset by increases in intellectual property
products and structures.

Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third
quarter reflected accelerations in consumer spending, private inventory
investment, and federal government spending and upturns in exports and
residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by a downturn
in nonresidential fixed investment and a deceleration in state and local
government spending. Imports turned up.

Current dollar GDP increased 8.5 percent at an annual rate, or $560.5 billion, in
the third quarter to a level of $27.62 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP
increased 3.8 percent, or $249.4 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.0 percent in the third
quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the second quarter (table
4). The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.9
percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent. Excluding food and energy
prices, the PCE price index increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of
3.7 percent.

Personal Income
Current-dollar personal income increased $199.5 billion in the third quarter,
compared with an increase of $239.6 billion in the second quarter. The increase
reflected increases in compensation, proprietors’ income, personal income
receipts on assets, and rental income of persons that were partly offset by a
decrease in personal current transfer receipts (table 8).

Disposable personal income increased $95.8 billion, or 1.9 percent, in the third
quarter, compared with an increase of $296.5 billion, or 6.1 percent, in the
second quarter. Real disposable personal income decreased 1.0 percent, in
contrast to an increase of 3.5 percent.

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Personal saving was $776.9 billion in the third quarter, compared with $1.04
trillion in the second quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a
percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.8 percent in the third quarter,
compared with 5.2 percent in the second quarter.

Source Data for the Advance Estimate

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or
subject to further revision by the source agency. Information on the source data
and key assumptions used in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical
Note (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-10/tech3q23_adv.pdf) and a
detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions
(https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-
10/GDPKeySource_3q23_adv.xlsx)" file posted with the release. The "second"
estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on
November 29, 2023. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the "Additional
Information" section that follows.

* * *

Next release, November 29, 2023, at 8:30 a.m. EST

Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate)
Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate)
Third Quarter 2023

* * *

Release Dates in 2024

2023 Q4
2024
Estimate and 2024 Q2 2024 Q3
Q1
Year 2023

Gross Domestic
Product

April
January 25, October 30,
Advance Estimate 25, July 25, 2024
2024 2024
2024

February May 30, August 29, November

Second Estimate
28, 2024 2024 2024 27, 2024

June
March 28, September December
Third Estimate 27,
2024 26, 2024 19, 2024
2024

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26/10/2023, 10:52 Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Release Dates in 2024

2023 Q4
2024
Estimate and 2024 Q2 2024 Q3
Q1
Year 2023

Gross Domestic June

March 28, September December
Product by 27,
2024 26, 2024 19, 2024
Industry 2024

Corporate Profits

Preliminary May 30, August 29, November

---
Estimate 2024 2024 27, 2024

June
March 28, September December
Revised Estimate 27,
2024 26, 2024 19, 2024
2024

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