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When The Sea Rises

Minerva University

NS50: Empirical Analyses

Prof. Gale

December 6, 2021
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Background research

The sea is rising

In the 20th century, the global mean sea level rose 11-16 cm, and predictions for this

century estimate an increase of up to 2 meters (Kulp & Strauss, 2019). According to NASA

(2021), melting ice sheets and glaciers and the expansion of seawater as it warms lead to sea-

level rise. It is predicted that by 2100, the sea will rise 0.6 to 1.1 meters, about 15 millimeters per

year (Earth Observatory, 2021).

Greenland and Antarctica

It is estimated that there are 24-30 million cubic kilometers of ice on land, being 90% of

this ice in Antarctica and the remaining 10% in Greenland (UCAR, 2021). The Australian

Antarctic Program describes Antarctica as a “pure” continent due to its remoteness with a mean

thickness in ice sheets of 2.16 km (Australian Antarctic Program, 2021). Greenland, in

comparison, is closer to the Equator and has higher temperatures on average, making it more

likely to melt completely than Antarctica.

Figure 1 indicates how ice has been melting in the past years, contributing to sea-level

rise.
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Figure 1. Graph indicates how Greenland and Antarctica have lost ice mass compared

to 200. The x-axis represents the year and the y-axis represents the ice mass decrease in Gt.

However, it is important to note that not all melting ice causes sea level rise. Like ice

cubes in a cup of water, sea ice does not affect the volume of water in the oceans because ice is

less dense than liquid water. When the ice melts, it becomes denser but the same mass fits into a

smaller volume (UCAR, 2021 )1.

On Pier 39

Built in 1977, Pier 39 became the “premiere entertainment destination with delightful sea

lion guests, stores and restaurants”, being named the most visited attraction in the city for the 9th

consecutive year (Pier 39, 2021).

1 #dataviz: I analyzed the decrease of mass in Greenland and Antarctica over the years using a line graph to better
visualize the change. I also included a grid to make it clear that these regions lost mass.
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If San Francisco is 16 meters above sea level (USGS, 1981) 2, Pier 39 is 2 meters above

sea level, considerably low compared to the city but high compared to other piers — the Ferry

Building is less than 30 centimeters above sea level.

Figure 2 is a snapshot of Climate Central’s model on the sea-level rise (2021) and

illustrates how Pier 39 may be affected if the sea level rises up to 1.5 meters. It is clear that there

are barely any red spots on the pier, meaning that the chances of it surviving an increase in sea

level are relatively high.

2 #sourcequality: I included a source from the USA’ government that indicates the elevation of the Pier 39. Even
though it is from 1981, the elevation has not changed since then.
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Difference in the impact of sea level rise due to melting

in Antarctica and Greenland in Pier 39

Greenland Antarctica
Contribution to Average Sea Level: 1.5m

Figure 2. A prediction of how the sea level will affect Pier 39 in San Francisco

in the future, taking into account the melting in ice sheets. On the left side is how

the pier will be affected if Greenland melts and increases the sea level by 1.5

meters. The right predicts how Antarctica melting will affect the pier. Both

images indicate that the pier is predicted to stay above sea level.

This model allows for a visual representation of the prediction, but it fails to predict the

increase in sea level given that both Antarctica and Greenland are melting simultaneously. It also

does not permit us to zoom in further to understand how it may affect businesses and tourism3.

3 #modeling: I assessed how effective the model is in visualizing the prediction, claiming it would be greatly
improved if it indicated how the sea level rise will increase due to the melting of ice sheets in both Antarctica and
Greenland and could be more detailed by zooming in the map.
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Making predictions

Overall predictions claim that the sea level will rise up to 2 meters in the next 100 years.

With this in mind, if Greenland and Antarctica 4 melt at their current rates for the next 100 years,

then Pier 39 will not be under the tideline because its structure, being around 2 meters above the

current sea level as well as its double-decker, was built to avoid complications with the seawater

and maximize the tourists’ experience5.

Word count: 498

4 #plausibility: It is a consensus, as explained in the first paragraph, that the increase in sea level rise is not due to
one cause, but many. This hypothesis is based on the assumption that the ice will melt at a steady rate and that 2
meters is high enough to not affect the pier.
5 #hypothesisdevelopment: I purposefully chose to include the hypothesis at the end because it is a product of prior
knowledge from the research background. The justification for the prediction comes from the fact that both
Greenland and Antarctica decrease in mass affect how the sea level will increase.
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References

Australian Antarctica Program. (2021). Ice sheets. Retrieved 7 December 2021, from
https://www.antarctica.gov.au/about-antarctica/ice-and-atmosphere/ice-sheet/

Climate Change. (2021). Sea level rise and coastal flood risk maps -- a global screening tool by
Climate Central. Retrieved 7 December 2021, from
https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/13/-73.53/41.0416/?
theme=sea_level_rise&map_type=ice_sheet&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=true&elevatio
n_model=best_available&ice_loss_level=3.0&ice_sheet=antarctic&refresh=true&water_unit
=ft

Earth Observatory. (2021). Anticipating Future Sea Levels. Retrieved 7 December 2021, from
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148494/anticipating-future-sea-levels

Kulp, S., & Strauss, B. (2019). New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-
level rise and coastal flooding. Nature Communications, 10(1). doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-
12808-z

NASA. (2021). Sea Level | NASA Global Climate Change. Retrieved 7 December 2021, from
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

Pier 39. (2021). PIER 39 on the San Francisco Waterfront - Learn About PIER 39. Retrieved 7
December 2021, from https://www.pier39.com/pier-info/about/

UCAR. (2021). Rising Sea Level | UCAR Center for Science Education. Retrieved 7 December
2021, from https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/rising-sea-level

USGS. (1981). Feature Details. Retrieved 7 December 2021, from

https://edits.nationalmap.gov/apps/gaz-domestic/public/summary/277593