Introduction: Changing Seas

As our world warms, global sea levels are rising, and the coasts as we know them
are changing.
More than half of the world's population Coastal development has boomed in the last 50
lives within 40 miles (60 kilometers) of the years. This growth at the coasts has occurred
coast, where fertile land, port access, and without regard to rising seas.
recreation abound. In the U.S. alone, roughly
3.7 million people live within a few feet of
high tide.
But as tides and storm surges encroach inland, and coastal land sinks or subsides, the people
and environment of the coastal zone face a wide range of impacts.
Changes in sea level are nothing new. Global sea
level has fluctuated throughout Earth's history
because of changes in land and sea topography,
growth or melting of polar ice caps, fluctuations
in seawater density, and other factors.
Over the roughly 2,000 years from 0 AD to
the 20th century, sea level changed relatively
little. But in the last 100 years or so, average
global sea levels rose dramatically.
 Researchers use two different
measurements of sea level.
"Relative sea level" is the height of
the ocean relative to the land
elevation at a particular location.
"Absolute sea level" measures the
height of the ocean surface above
the center of the Earth. In recent
years the rate of sea level rise
appears to have accelerated. When
averaged over all the world's
oceans,
using mainly tide gauge measurements, absolute sea level has increased at an average rate of
0.06 in. (0.15 cm) per year from 1870 to 2008. From 1993 to 2008, using satellite altimetry data,
average sea level rose roughly twice as fast as the long-term trend, at a rate of about 0.12 in. (0.3
cm) per year.
 Many processes contribute to
changing sea level, and several of
these are associated with climate
variability and change. They include:

• Thermal expansion of ocean

water—when water warms, it
takes up more space.
• Inputs of water to the ocean from
melting glaciers, ice caps, and ice
sheets.
• Modifications in terrestrial water
storage, from processes like ground
water extraction.
• Shifts in the land caused by, for example, sediment compaction, erosion, or land lifting when
heavy glaciers melt. These cause local or regional sea level changes.
Ocean currents also influence a coast's sea level by pushing water toward the land or pulling it
away. For example, changes in the Florida Current and the Gulf Stream transport are known to
affect coastal water levels. Currents also have normal seasonal and decadal oscillations in
response to long-term variations in the global wind fields and climate oscillations.
Tools and Research
To understand sea level change, researchers
compare multiple global datasets taken over several
decades. They use various tools, including satellites
that measure the topography of the ocean, Earth's
gravity field, sea surface temperature, ice sheets,
ocean salinity, and more.

Since 1993, scientists have relied on a series of records

from the TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and Jason-2
satellite missions to construct a global and regional sea
level trend composite.
Tide gauges, electronic
sensors that measure
and record sea level
height, are another
important tool. Gauges
are preferably co-
located with continuous
GPS systems.

Historical records and

radiocarbon dating of sea floor
A global array of sediments and corals offer
3,000 drifting important clues about past sea
profiling floats, called levels. This data informs our
ARGO floats, measure understanding of present and
the temperature and future sea heights.
salinity of the upper
ocean.
Observed Changes

Climate models, satellite data,

and hydrographic observations
all demonstrate that, while
absolute sea level has
increased steadily, relative sea
level is not rising uniformly
everywhere. This figure reflects
the spatial variability of global
sea level trends from satellite
altimeter data.

Sea level does not rise or fall uniformly as shown in this map. Sea level trends
are also reflected in patterns of ocean heat storage.
In the United States, relative
sea levels have risen unevenly
along the coasts over the past
50 years. On the Mid-Atlantic
coast and parts of the Gulf
coast, sea levels rose by as
much as 8 in. (20 cm). In Alaska
and the Pacific Northwest,
tectonic plates lift the land up
faster than the sea is rising, so
relative sea level has fallen in
this region. Other geologic
processes can also impact sea
level. For example, post-glacial
rebound causes continental
uplift, and sediment deposits in
large river deltas cause
continental sinking.
 About 90% of the warming the Earth has
experienced has been absorbed by the oceans,
causing thermal expansion.

Thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers and

small ice caps caused most of 20th century sea
level rise. But Earth has nearly 160,000 glaciers,
each one capable of responding in its own way to
climate change. While nearly all glaciated regions
on Earth are showing signs of ice loss, forecasting
how glaciers will contribute to sea level in the
coming century is a challenging task.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet extends more than 5 million
square miles (14 million square kilometers), while the
Greenland Ice Sheet spreads over about 656,000
square miles (1.7 million square kilometers).
(Earth surface 509,805,891 million square kilometers)
Researchers can now measure average rates of snowfall
and ice flow from the large ice sheets, but they are still
working to understand how, where, when, and how
much the ice sheets will melt.
Changes in these large ice sheets are critical for
forecasting sea level rise. Since its launch in January
2003, the ICESat satellite has been measuring the ice
sheets' changing thickness. This data visualization
illustrates changes in elevation over the Greenland ice
sheet between 2003 and 2006.
Future Projections

Projected higher global air temperatures are

expected to cause increased melting of glaciers
and ice caps and will lead to higher ocean
water temperatures that will further raise sea
levels.
 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
produces the most robust reports on climate change, which
are summaries of thousands of peer-reviewed studies. In
their 2007 report, the IPCC estimated that the global average
sea level will rise by about 9 to 20 in. (22-50 cm) by 2100
relative to 1980-1999 under a range of greenhouse gas
emissions scenarios. It is important to note that these
estimates assumed that melting from Greenland and
Antarctica would continue at the same rates as observed
from 1993-2003. However, new research suggests that the
IPCC predictions may be too low, and that sea level rise could
be closer to 3 ft (1 m).

One unknown is what will happen in the coming years to the planet's major
ice sheets. Meltwater contributions from Greenland and Antarctica have
increased in recent years, which could also make the IPCC's projections too
low.
Potential Impacts
Higher sea levels directly impact coastal areas, which
are the most densely populated and economically
active land areas on Earth.

Infrastructure such as ports and harbors,

industry, and an extensive built environment
are all concentrated in coastal regions.
 Even a small amount of sea level rise can produce
major changes for coasts. In low-lying areas, a foot
and half of vertical rise (0.5 m) can cause inundation
far from the present shoreline. This image illustrates
how Charleston, South Carolina would be impacted
by that magnitude of sea level rise.

Impacts of rising sea levels will be felt most acutely

through changes in the intensity and frequency of
extreme events and from the combined effects of
high spring tides, storm surges, surface waves, and
flooding rivers.
In some areas, projections of sea level rise mean tidal
flooding that was once an occasional nuisance can become
a frequent hazard to residents and their property. In this
image from NOAA's Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding
Impacts viewer, the red color indicates shallow coastal
flooding areas. The graph shows predictions of changes in
the frequency and duration of current coastal flood events
for half-meter and one-meter sea level rise scenarios
compared to today's conditions.
More than 200 million people around the globe are already
vulnerable to coastal flooding. Rising population and
migration could increase this number to 800 million by the
2080s.
 This map highlights regions that are most vulnerable to
coastal flooding. These projections of people at risk are
based on a scenario for the 2080s that assumes a global
sea level rise estimate of 18 in. (45 cm).

The coasts support important ecosystems that are

sensitive to sea levels and other changes. Rising sea
levels cause wetland loss, erosion of soft ground,
saltwater intrusion, rising water tables, and poor
drainage. Coastal infrastructure impedes
ecosystems' ability to adapt to rising sea levels. For
example, sea walls and jetties make it difficult for
mudflats and beaches to migrate inland as they have
during past periods of sea level rise.
Uncertainty about future emissions of greenhouse gases and
the associated climate response make it difficult to estimate the
timescales, magnitude, and rates of future sea level rise.
Because we don't know the details of how sea level rise will play
out in the future, and it is unclear which strategies people will
use to deal with changing sea levels, the actual consequences of
sea level rise remain uncertain.
How to Prepare

The two potential responses to sea level

rise are mitigation and adaptation. To be
most effective, mitigating, or reducing,
greenhouse gas emissions should occur on a
global scale, but individuals can start in
their homes and communities. Adaptation
happens locally or nationally. The IPCC
offers three approaches to adapting to
relative sea level rise: planned retreat,
accommodation, and protection.
 With a planned retreat, humans exit the coast and let
natural systems respond without interference. Sea level
rise is already forcing some island populations to consider
moving to higher ground. The president of Kiribati, a low-
lying Pacific island nation threatened by rising seas, is
negotiating a land purchase in Fiji to help secure a future
for his people.

With accommodation, humans don't interfere

with natural systems but instead adjust how
they inhabit the coastal zone. Stilted homes are
one example of implementing this strategy.
The protection strategy relies on soft or hard
engineering, like the storm wall pictured here. East
Asia and Europe have the most developed and
extensive artificial protective systems.

Adaptation can mean both adjusting to the negative

effects of climate change as well as taking advantage
of any positive consequences of change. Adaptation
will require action from federal, state, tribal, and local
governments, the private sector, non-governmental
organizations, and community groups. Planners and
policy makers will need to consider a range of
possibilities since the risk of global mean sea level
rising by more than 3 ft (1 m) by 2100 cannot be
excluded.
Each nation's experience in managing and protecting its inhabitants, resources, and
infrastructure has been based on our relatively stable historic climate. But adaptation to climate
change requires an appreciation of possible conditions that lie outside our current experience.
In the short term, adaptation actions that can be most easily
implemented are low-cost strategies with win-win
outcomes—ones that offer immediate benefits and/or
reverse poor policies and practices. Often adaptations make
ecological and human structural systems more resilient and
healthy. Decision makers should also consider the relationship
between adaptive actions and mitigation. Adaptive actions
that increase greenhouse gas emissions should be evaluated
carefully to ensure that their benefits outweigh the risks.

Planners and decision makers need long-term forecasts of

global sea level rise, and information on short-term variability
and long-term sea level change on regional and local scales.
Perhaps more importantly, they need to know how future sea
levels will affect their community and their way of life.
Researchers are working to identify and quantify the causes
contributing to sea level change and to develop better models
with more reliable predictions.
 PROYEKSI KENAIKAN MUKA LAUT INDONESIA

Kenaikan Muka Laut

Year
Luas Area yang Hilang (km2) (m)
2010 7,408 0.4
Sumber : 2050 30,120 0.56
Susandi,dkk. 2008
2100 90,260 1.1
> Terganggunya Batas Wilayah
Indonesia
> Gangguan terhadap Jaringan
Jalan Lintas dan Kereta Api
> Menggenangnya Air Laut
> Rusaknya Ekosistem Pantai
• Peningkatan Jumlah Pengungsi
• Hilangnya Habitat dan Spesies
• Hilangnya lahan-lahan budidaya
• Berkurangnya Produktivitas Lahan
• Berkurangnya Produktivitas Pertanian
• Berkurangnya Produktivitas Perikanan
• Masalah Sumber Daya Air
 Hilangnya Pulau-Pulau Sedang pada 2100

115 pulau
Sumatera Utara : Pulau Batu
Sumatera Barat : Pulau Sipora, Pulau Bagai Utara, Pulau Bagai Selatan
Kepulauan Riau : Pulau Singkep, Pulau Sebangka, Pulau Lingga, Pulau Abang Besar, Pulau Panuba, Pulau Benuwa, Pulau Tambelan, Pulau
Pinangseribu
Bangka Belitung : Pulau Belitung
Kalimantan Barat : Pulau Karimata ; Kalimantan Selatan : Pulau Laut, Pulau Sebuku
Jawa Timur : Pulau Giliraya, Pulau Gili-genteng, Pulau Puteran, Pulau Sapudi, Pulau Raas, Pulau Kangean
Bali : Pulau Nusa Penida ; NTB : Pulau Giligede,Sangeang; NTT : Pulau Solor, Pulau Pantar, Pulau Adonara
Sulawesi Selatan : Pulau Selayar, Pulau Tanah Pulau Jampea, Pulau Bonerate, Pulau Kaloatoa
Sulawesi Tenggara : Pulau Tukang Besi ; Sulawesi Tengah : Pulau Banggai
Maluku Utara : Pulau Mangole, Pulau Tubulai, Pulau Obi, Pulau Obilatu, Pulau Damar, Pulau Gebe
Maluku : Pulau Watubela, Pulau Wetar, Pulau Tanibar, Pulau Babar, Pulau Kai
West Papua : Pulau Rumberpon, Pulau Gag
Sumber : Susandi,dkk. 2008
Proyeksi Kenaikan Muka Laut
BANJARMASIN
Susandi. dkk, 2008
KERUGIAN EKONOMI AKIBAT
KENAIKAN MUKA LAUT DI BANJARMASIN

• Kerugian ekonomi di Banjarmasin (TH. 2050-2100)

Tahun Kerugian*) (106 US$)
2050 0,14
2100 0,69
*) Lahan
• Jumlah Pengungsi (TH. 2050-2100)
Tahun Jumlah Pengungsi (jiwa)

2050 13.509

2100 40.270

Susandi. dkk, 2008

Proyeksi Kenaikan Muka Laut
di Wilayah Bali
Kenaikan Muka Laut di Bali (2009 –
Base Line)

Luas Bali = 5.632 km2, Luas Terendam = 0 km2 Susandi. dkk, 2010
 Kenaikan Muka Laut di Bali (2010)

Luas Bali = 5.632 km2, Luas Terendam = 0 km2 Susandi. dkk, 2010
 Kenaikan Muka Laut di Bali (2020)

Luas Bali = 5.345 km2, Luas Terendam = 287 km2 Susandi. dkk, 2010
 Kenaikan Muka Laut di Bali (2030)

Luas Bali = 5.269 km2, Luas Terendam = 363 km2 Susandi. dkk, 2010
 Kenaikan Muka Laut di Bali (2040)

Luas Bali = 5.207 km2, Luas Terendam = 425 km2 Susandi. dkk, 2010
 Kenaikan Muka Laut di Bali (2050)

Luas Bali = 5.143 km2, Luas Terendam = 489 km2 Susandi. dkk, 2010
 Kenaikan Muka Laut di Bali (2080)

Luas Bali = 5.075 km2, Luas Terendam = 557 km2 Susandi. dkk, 2010
Weather Shifts
Climate and weather events now take place
in a world that is different from the one our
grandparents knew. The average
temperature of the atmosphere is warmer.
Oceans are also heating up, and polar ice is
melting, as are many glaciers. Heavy bouts
of rain and snow are becoming more
frequent, with longer dry spells in between.
Ecosystems are also changing. While day-
to-day weather generally remains familiar,
it plays out against a backdrop of change,
and the mix of weather is slowly evolving as
some events become more likely and
others less common.
Extreme weather is a bit relative. For
example, a hot day in Wyoming would be
considered a mild one in Arizona. And we
don't generally notice changes in climate
because most weather falls within the
range of what is expected. It is mainly the
extreme events that get our attention—
events that are outside our normal
experience and that often inflict human
suffering. So how might global warming
affect climate extremes and extreme
weather? There are several possible ways.
Let's look at temperature as one example.
The normal distribution of temperature can be
thought of as a bell-shaped curve like this, with
the majority of the observations in the middle,
but with rare events of extremely cold or
extremely warm temperatures at the ends.

Global warming could shift the distribution to

the right—decreasing the frequency of very
cold weather events, but greatly increasing the
occurrences of hot weather.
 Another possibility is that climate change increases
the variance in the distribution of temperature—in
other words, it increases the range of possibilities at
both ends of the distribution.

Or climate change could result in a combination of

the two types of distributions. We don't know
exactly how the distribution of temperature will
change, but most climate scientists strongly agree
that, on the average, the global climate will
continue to warm. However, the effects of this
warming in specific locations are less known.
 Nonetheless, we are already seeing the effects of climate
change. For example, in the United States, record high
temperatures are now occurring more than twice as often
as record low temperatures, and similar patterns have
been observed across the planet.

The increase in temperatures leads to other changes

throughout the climate system, such as precipitation
patterns. For example, warmer air holds more moisture,
which leads to changes in both the distribution of
precipitation and in precipitation intensity. Since
temperature and moisture drive most of the planet's
weather, it makes sense that these changes also change the
odds of an extreme event turning up.
Natural Variability and Extreme Weather

Extremes in weather are nothing

Sometimes, the same general climate pattern can produce
new. Weather varies naturally
drastically different weather conditions in different
because of many factors, and
locations or different years. For example, the unusually
those factors can combine to
cold winter of 2010-2011 in the contiguous U.S. was
produce an extreme drought or a
influenced by a La Niña pattern—a quasi-cyclic cooling of
devastating flood, stronger
the eastern tropical Pacific ocean.
hurricanes or record snowfalls.
 It is very likely that this pattern contributed to an unusually
cold spring with heavy precipitation in the Upper Missouri
River Basin. Heavy rains in May fell on deep late-spring
snow pack, which caused flooding that devastated parts of
several states.

No two El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation events are

alike, however. The La Niña pattern persisted through
the winter of 2011-2012, although it was somewhat
weaker. Surprisingly, that winter was one of the
warmest on record in the U.S. A number of factors
conspired to produce the two dramatically different
results. Part of the difference related to the high latitude
pressure patterns (called the Arctic Oscillation) that
dominated in the two winters. In the warmer 2011-2012
winter, the pattern tended to trap the cold air near the
poles, but why that was the case is still being studied.

Departures of temperature (anomalies) from average 2000-
2008 conditions during the month of March.
We have a good understanding that
natural modes of climate variability affect
the probability and intensity of weather
extremes. So how does global warming
come into the mix? In some cases it can
mitigate extremes. For example, a record
cold winter might be a little less cold than
it otherwise would have been. However,
climate change could also amplify the
effects of a natural cycle, producing more
severe extremes. So, for example, a
natural pattern that produces warmer-
than-normal annual conditions could be
enhanced by global warming and result in
increased night-time temperatures and
more frequent heat waves.
Climate is determined by a complicated
interplay of many factors that affect the
oceans, land surfaces, and the atmosphere. A
change in one of them—such as increasing
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases—can ripple throughout the system.
 Of course, extreme weather events can
have some positive effects. The warm
winter of 2011-2012 in the U.S. resulted in
lower heating bills, and many
communities also saved by not needing
snow removal services.

It is an individual's or community's vulnerability

to the adverse effects of extremes that largely
determines whether a particular event is a
disaster or something beneficial.
Role of Climate Change

Is a particular weather event—such as a tornado outbreak or a record heat wave—caused by

natural variability or global warming? There are no definitive answers yet, but scientists are
beginning to provide insight into the effect climate change might have on the chances of an
extreme event occurring.
 Using computer models and sophisticated
statistical techniques, researchers in the field of
attribution science are able to estimate the
odds that global warming increased (or
decreased) the chances for certain extreme
events.

Computer models simulate climate change by

dividing the world into 3-dimensional grid boxes,
measuring physical processes such as temperature
at each grid point.
 The science of attributing extreme water and weather events to climate
variability and change is relatively new. Several recent case studies have
shed light on unusual events such as the 2003 European heat wave and
the 2010 Russian heat wave. And, as seen in this image, some scientists
are even producing forecasts of the changes in the odds of occurrence
for hotter, colder, wetter, and drier events.

Number of days with temperatures hotter than normal during

Forecast of the change in the odds of a warmer April (2012)
the 2003 European Heat Wave
due to greenhouse gas emissions

The summer of 2003 was the warmest in at least the past 500 years in
Europe. European Community scientists correlate the 2003 summer European
heat wave with 70,000 deaths above what would normally be expected.
Researchers wanted to know if this heat wave was simply an extremely
unusual natural event or whether climate change created an environment
that altered the pattern of natural variability. Using a climate model, they
analyzed the probabilities of exceeding the 2003 seasonal mean temperature
under 2003 conditions, including the build-up of greenhouse gases from
human activities. They then ran the model again without those greenhouse
gases. Their conclusion is that global warming probably at least doubled the
chances of the heat wave.
 In the case of the 2010 Russian heat wave,
researchers found the magnitude of that event
was primarily caused by natural factors. Other
scientists, who used a different approach,
found that the risk of these types of events in
western Russia has increased greatly due to
global warming. It appears that, even if natural
factors were the main cause of this particular
weather extreme, the added strength produced
by climate change pushed it to a new and
dangerous level.

These early studies show promise, but much more work needs to be done to expand the regional
areas and the types of weather events for which these studies are conducted. Researchers hope
that improvements in attribution techniques will eventually lead to developing improved early
warning capabilities.
Changes in Extreme Events
We know that all weather results
from a combination of
interdependent factors, one of which
is the warmer temperatures observed
in the last 50 years. And computer
models show that human emissions
of greenhouse gases do account for
much of that warming. So what does
this mean for extremes in the US?
Based on observations, model
projections, and expert judgments,
we can be confident of the following:
Cold Weather: Warmer and fewer cold days and nights

Observations indicate that cold extremes are

less frequent and milder. Climate models
predict that trend is very likely to continue
throughout this century.

Hotter and more frequent hot days and nights and heat waves

Most of North America has experienced more

frequent and intense heat extremes, which are
also very likely to continue through the 21st
century.
More frequent and intense heavy rainfall

Many areas in the U.S. have seen an increase in the

heaviest downpours, and that pattern is very likely to
continue in the future.

Increases in areas affected by drought

Regions that already experience long-duration

droughts, such as the Southwestern U.S. and
parts of Mexico and the Caribbean, will likely
see the area affected increase.
More intense hurricanes

Observations indicate an increase in

hurricane intensity in the Atlantic and West
Pacific (but a decrease in the eastern Pacific).
Experts and models project those tendencies
are likely to continue in the future.
 Fires in Greece

• August 26, 2007

Source: REUTERS/John Kolesidis

 Tonimbuk, Australia

• February 7, 2009

Photo: AP
 Labertouche, Australia

• February 7, 2009

Photo: Reuters/Mick Tsikas

 Kalimantan, Indonesia

• 1997/1998
 Anhui Province, China

• June 22, 2005

Photo: Rueters/China News Photo

 Ahmadabad, India

• May 9, 2006

Photo: AP Photo/Ajit Solanki

 Banten, Indonesia

• July, 2009
Sumber: BNPB, 2010
Dampak Perubahan Iklim
pada Kesehatan
• Cuaca yang lebih hangat akan mengubah
habitat dan siklus hidup berbagai hama
penyebab penyakit.
• Air laut yang lebih hangat memperbesar
peluang timbulnya penyakit tifus di sekitar
pantai.
• Cuaca yang hangat & lembab memperluas
penyebaran nyamuk pembawa malaria.
• Cuaca yang hangat meningkatkan penyebaran
penyakit demam.
Dampak Perubahan Iklim
pada Pemukiman
• Wilayah yang paling rentan terhadap dampak kenaikan
muka air laut adalah pulau-pulau dan delta di muara
sungai besar.
• Meningkatnya bencana tanah longsor.
• Badai di daerah pantai mengancam 200 juta orang pada
2080.
• Perkiraan kerugian akibat kerusakan infrastruktur di
pantai mencapai 10 milyar dollar tiap negara.
Dampak Perubahan Iklim
pada Pengairan
• Dampak pada sektor pengairan akan
bergantung pada perubahan curah hujan
masing-masing wilayah.
• Saat ini 1.7 milyar orang tinggal di daerah
yang rawan bencana karena air dan akan
terus bertambah.
• Perubahan iklim akan menurunkan suplai air
di beberapa wilayah dan meningkat pada
wilayah yang lain.
Dampak Perubahan Iklim
di Bidang Energi & Industri

• Cuaca yang hangat dan musim panas yang panjang dapat

mengurangi suplai air untuk mesin-mesin yang menggunakan
tenaga air.
(Contoh : Berkurangnya pasokan listrik di Indonesia)
• Kegiatan industri/ekonomi terhambat akibat kurangnya pasokan
listrik.
 Dampak Perubahan Iklim
di Bidang Pertanian
• Dampak yang terjadi kompleks dan bervariasi terhadap wilayah dan tingkat
perubahan iklim.
• Faktor yang mempengaruhi adalah perubahan temperatur regional, curah hujan,
dan adaptasi oleh petani.
• Umumnya, peningkatan suhu akan mempengaruhi kondisi pertanian di wilayah
lintang tengah.
• Pemanasan beberapa derajat celcius akan memberikan dampak yang signifikan
bagi sektor pertanian (penurunan produktivitas pertanian).
Dampak Perubahan Iklim
di Bidang Pertanian (lanjutan)
• Peningkatan temperatur akan menyebabkan
pergeseran musim dan mengubah pola musim
tanam di beberapa daerah.
• Petani di daerah tadah hujan akan mengubah
pola panen atau membiarkan lahan mereka
jika curah hujan regional dan limpasan
berkurang atau bertambah.
• Pada beberapa wilayah, berkurangnya
produktivitas lahan akan memaksa petani
untuk membuka lahan pertanian baru di
tempat lain.
Dampak Perubahan Iklim
pada Bidang Kehutanan
• Perubahan pola cuaca dan ketersediaan air di kawasan hutan dapat
mengancam kelangsungan hidup pohon dan flora & fauna yang di hidup
di dalamnya.
• Peningkatan temperatur akan menyebabkan timbulnya kebakaran hutan.
Beberapa Contoh Kepunahan dan Perubahan Spesies
(NaturalNews.com)

• Kira-kira 400 tanaman obat terjadi resiko punah, termasuk magnolia (obat
penyakit jantung).
• Terjadinya migrasi hewan secara besar-besaran.
a) 30 Spesies reptil dan amfibi berpindah ke tempat yang lebih tinggi (lebih
dingin).
b) 2 spesies (katak dan tokek) berada pada bahaya punah.
c) 10 spesies burung Australia sudah punah dan tinggal 60 spesies lainnya
dalam kondisi bahaya.
d) Anjing laut sudah sekitar 50 tahun tidak terlihat lagi, yang sedianya
melimpah di laut Karibia, Teluk Meksiko, dan sebelah barat Atlantik.
e) Perubahan perilaku burung Gelatik, bertelur 3 minggu lebih awal
dibanding setengah abad yang lalu.
 ADAPTASI
PERUBAHAN IKLIM
 Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim
• Adaptasi adalah berbagai tindakan
penyesuaian diri terhadap kondisi
perubahan iklim yang terjadi.

• Menyesuaikan kegiatan ekonomi pada

sektor-sektor yang rentan sehingga
mendukung pembangunan berkelanjutan.
 Pelaku Adaptasi
Pemerintah :
 Mendorong pemangku kepentingan
untuk melakukan kajian
kerentanan dan adaptasi;
 Menyusun strategi dan kebijakan
nasional untuk kegiatan adaptasi
perubahan iklim
Masyarakat :
 Mengurangi konsumsi air bersih;
 Membiasakan diri dengan makanan
pokok lain (selain beras);
 Merelokasi industri yang berlokasi di
tepi pantai ke tempat yang lebih tinggi
 Adaptasi di Daerah Pantai
Dampak Perubahan Iklim: Peningkatan muka air laut

KEGIATAN ADAPTASI :
 Pembangunan tanggul-tanggul di daerah pantai
 Perlindungan terhadap pelabuhan, bangunan atau infrastruktur
lainnya yang rentan terhadap kenaikan air laut
 Konservasi air a.l . melalui kampanye publik untuk mencegah
kontaminasi oleh air laut
 Penerapan teknologi untuk memperoleh air bersih dari air yang
telah tercemar
 Perubahan pola penangkapan ikan oleh nelayan
 Adaptasi di Sektor
Pertanian
Dampak Perubahan Iklim:
• Erosi pada daerah dataran tinggi
• Gangguan pada sistem pertanian

KEGIATAN ADAPTASI :
 Konservasi air dan tanah
 Aforestasi melalui agroforestry dengan tanaman pengikat nitrogen
 Penyesuaian waktu tanam yang dilakukan oleh petani
 Penanaman jenis tanaman yang lebih tahan terhadap perubahan iklim
 Adaptasi di Sektor Kesehatan
Dampak Perubahan Iklim:
Peningkatan kasus-kasus akibat
 Malaria
 Demam berdarah
 diare

KEGIATAN ADAPTASI :
 Pemusnahan tempat perkembangbiakan nyamuk
 Peningkatan pengetahuan masyarakat terhadap lokasi-lokasi perkembangbiakan
nyamuk
 Peningkatan akses terhadap air bersih
 Peningkatan imunisasi dan kampanye ASI
 Peningkatan kebersihan diri dan sanitasi perorangan
 Peningkatan system drainase dan pengelolaan banjir
 Pemetaan pola dan proyeksi
perubahan iklim
• Peta Rawan longsor • Peta Rawan banjir

Sumber : BMG, 2008 Sumber : Walhi, 2007

Mitigasi Perubahan
Bidang Energi
Iklim
Apa yang dimaksud dengan Mitigasi ?

Mitigasi : berbagai tindakan aktif untuk mencegah/

memperlambat terjadinya perubahan iklim/ pemanasan
global & mengurangi dampak perubahan
iklim/pemanasan global (melalui upaya penurunan emisi
GRK, peningkatan penyerapan GRK, dll.)
 Upaya Penurunan Emisi CO2

INDUSTRI ENERGI
TERBARUKAN
Bauran energi dan
PEMBANGKIT
LISTRIK penghematan
energi
Carbon capture TRANSPORTASI
& storage
RUMAH TANGGA &
KOMERSIAL
 Emisi non-energi Emisi energi
Emisi global per sektornya
Perubahan Lahan
Industri 14%
18%
Pembangkit listrik
Pertanian 14% 24%

Sampah 3%

Transportasi 14%
Disebut juga LULUCF (landuse, landuse
change, forestry atau penggunaan lahan,
perubahan peruntukkan lahan, kehutanan)
Gedung/
emisi total tahun 2000 = Energi terkait bangunan 8%
Sumber: Stern’s Slide
42GtCO2e lainnya 5%
sumber: slide Stern
Pengembangan Energi
Terbarukan
Energi Angin

Sumber: Susandi, dkk., 2008

Energi Angin
Energi Matahari

Sumber: Susandi, dkk., 2008

Energi Angin
Energi Matahari
Energi Biodiesel

Sumber: Susandi, dkk., 2008

Energi Angin
Energi Matahari
Energi Biodiesel
Energi Panas Bumi
Sumber: Susandi, dkk., 2008
Energi Angin
Energi Matahari
Energi Biodiesel
Energi Panas Bumi
Energi Batu Bara Sumber: Susandi, dkk., 2008
Energi Angin
Energi Matahari
Energi Biodiesel
Energi Panas Bumi
Energi Batu Bara Sumber: Susandi, dkk., 2008
Sumber Energi Angin
 Wind velocity (Dec-Jan-Feb)

8 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9

6 5 4 5 6 7 7 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7

3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5

5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4

5 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5

5 4 4 3 3 4 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 4

4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 4 4

5 4 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3

7 7 7 6 5 4 3 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3

1000 mB
 Wind velocity (Mar-Aprl-May)

2 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6

2 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4

3 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3

3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2

2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1

2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2

3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2

5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 4

7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6

1000 mB
 Wind velocity (Jun-Jul-Augt)

6 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 0 0

4 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0

2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 1

0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3

2 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 1 3 4

5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 3 4

7 4 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 3 4 4

8 8 8 8 7 8 6 5 5 6 6 8 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 6

8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 7

1000 mB
 Wind velocity (Sep-Oct-Nov)

2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0

3 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0

2 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1

2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2

4 4 4 6 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 1 2 2

7 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3

7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 3 4 5 5 5 5 5

8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 1 1 2 1 1 3 4 5 5 6 6

1000 mB
 Wind Energy Potential (Dec-Jan-Feb)

31 21 21 13 21 31 45 45 31 21 13 21 21 13 13 13 21 31 31 31 45 45 45

13 7,7 3,9 7,7 13 21 21 21 7,7 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 1,7 3,9 7,7 7,7 7,7 13 21 21 21

1,7 1,7 3,9 1,7 1,7 3,9 3,9 3,9 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 3,9 3,9 3,9 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 3,9 3,9 7,7

7,7 3,9 3,9 3,9 1,7 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 1,7 1,7 1,7 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 7,7 7,7 3,9

7,7 3,9 1,7 1,7 1,7 3,9 7,7 7,7 7,7 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 7,7 7,7 7,7

7,7 3,9 3,9 1,7 1,7 3,9 13 13 13 13 7,7 7,7 7,7 7,7 7,7 7,7 13 7,7 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9

3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 7,7 13 21 21 21 21 13 13 13 21 21 21 21 7,7 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9

7,7 3,9 3,9 1,7 1,7 3,9 7,7 13 13 13 13 13 13 21 21 31 31 21 13 7,7 3,9 3,9 1,7

21 21 21 13 7,7 3,9 1,7 7,7 13 13 13 13 21 21 21 13 13 7,7 7,7 3,9 1,7 1,7 1,7

1 MW
1000 mB
 Wind Energy Potential (March-Apr-Mei)

0,5 0,5 0,5 0,1 0,5 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 3,9 3,9 3,9 7,7 7,7 13 13

0,5 0,5 0,1 0,5 0,5 1,7 1,7 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,5 1,7 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 1,7 1,7 3,9 3,9 3,9

1,7 0,5 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,5 0,5 0,1 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,5 0,5 1,7 1,7

1,7 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,5 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,5 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,5

0,5 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,1 0,1

0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,5 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,5

1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,5 0,5 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 0,5 0,5 0,5

7,7 7,7 7,7 7,7 3,9 3,9 1,7 1,7 1,7 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 1,7 1,7 1,7 3,9 7,7 7,7 7,7 3,9 3,9

21 21 13 13 13 13 7,7 7,7 7,7 13 13 7,7 3,9 3,9 1,7 1,7 1,7 3,9 7,7 13 13 13 13

16 1 MW
1000 mB
 Wind Energy Potential (Jun-Jul-Augt)

13 7,7 3,9 1,7 1,7 1,7 3,9 7,7 3,9 1,7 0,1 0 0 0 0,1 0,1 0,5 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,1 0 0

3,9 1,7 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 1,7 1,7 1,7 0,5 0 0,1 0,1 0 0 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0 0 0 0

0,5 0,1 0 0 0 0 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0 0,1 0,1 0,1 0 0,1 0,1 0,1 0 0,1 0,5 0,1 0,1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0,1 0,1 0,1 0 0 0 0,1 0,1 0,1 0 0 0 0 0,1 0,5 1,7 1,7

0,5 0,5 0,1 0 0 0,1 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,1 0 0 0,1 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,1 0 0 0,1 1,7 3,9

7,7 7,7 3,9 1,7 0,5 0,5 0,5 1,7 1,7 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,5 1,7 3,9 3,9 3,9 1,7 0,5 0,1 0,1 1,7 3,9

21 3,9 21 13 7,7 3,9 3,9 1,7 3,9 3,9 1,7 3,9 3,9 7,7 7,7 7,7 13 13 7,7 3,9 1,7 3,9 3,9

31 31 31 31 21 31 13 7,7 7,7 13 13 31 13 7,7 7,7 7,7 13 21 21 21 13 13 13

31 21 31 31 31 31 31 21 21 31 31 21 13 3,9 1,7 1,7 3,9 7,7 13 21 21 21 21

191 MW
1000 mB
 Wind Energy Potential (Sept-Oct-Nov)

6.1 6.1 4.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1

8.2 6.1 4.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 4.5 6.1 6.1 6.1 4.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1

6.1 6.1 4.5 4.5

Potential = 73 GW
3.1 3.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.1 3.1 4.5 4.5 3.1

4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5

Installed capacity (optimum) = 25 MW
4.5 4.5 4.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.1 3.1 4.5 4.5 4.5

6.1 4.5 4.5 3.1 Recent capacity = 0.6 MW

3.1 3.1 3.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 4.5 6.1

11 11 11 17 6.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 4.5 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 4.5 3.1 4.5 6.1 6.1

21 13 13 13 11 8.2 6.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 8.2 8.2 11 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2

21 21 21 21 17 13 11 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 6.1 4.5 4.5 8.2 11 13 13 13 13 13

25 25 25 25 21 21 17 13 11 8.2 8.2 8.2 4.5 4.5 6.1 4.5 4.5 8.2 11 13 13 17 17

181 MW
1000 mB
Peta Distribusi Kecepatan Angin (dalam m/s) Bulan : (a) Juni-Juli-
Agustus di P. Jawa

Sumber: Susandi, 2007

Peta Distribusi Kecepatan Angin (dalam m/s) Bulan : (b)
September-Oktober-November di P. Jawa

Sumber: Susandi, 2007

Peta Distribusi Kecepatan Angin (dalam m/s) Bulan: (c) Desember-
Januari-Februari

Sumber: Susandi, 2007

Peta Distribusi Kecepatan Angin (dalam m/s) Bulan: (d) Maret-
April-Mei

Sumber: Susandi, 2007

Sumber Energi Matahari
Potensi Energi Matahari di Indonesia

Intensitas Radiasi Matahari

di Indonesia mencapai
4.8 kWh/m2/hari

Sumber: Susandi dkk., 2008

Daya Radiasi Matahari di Permukaan Bumi Indonesia

W/m2

Sumber: Susandi dkk., 2008

 Grafik Reduksi CO2 dari Substitusi Energi Fosil oleh Energi
Angin
0.05
Substitution of Gas
0.04 Substitution of Oil
MtCO2 per tahun

Substitution of Coal
0.03

0.02

0.01

0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Tahun

Sumber: Susandi, dkk., 2008

 Grafik Reduksi CO2 dari Substitusi Energi Fosil oleh
Energi Surya
0.15
Substitution of Gas
0.12 Substitution of Oil
MtCO2 per tahun

Substitution of Coal
0.09

0.06

0.03

0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Tahun
Sumber: Susandi, dkk., 2008
 Grafik Reduksi CO2 dari Substitusi Energi Fosil oleh
Energi Biodiesel

4.5 Substitution of Gas

4 Substitution of Oil
Substitution of Coal
3.5
MtCO2 per tahun

3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Tahun
Sumber: Susandi, dkk., 2008
 Grafik Reduksi CO2 dari Substitusi Energi Fosil oleh
Energi Panas Bumi
150

130 Substitution of Gas

Substitution of Oil
110
MtCO2 per tahun

Substitution of Coal
90

70

50
30

10

-10 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Tahun
Sumber: Susandi, dkk., 2008
Proyeksi Nilai Karbon bagi
Pendapatan Nasional
 Proyeksi Model MERGE untuk Harga CO2 per Ton dalam
USD

700
$600/ton CO2
600

500
$/ton CO2

400

300

200

100

0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Sumber: Susandi, dkk., 2008

 Proyeksi Jumlah Reduksi CO2 di Indonesia
oleh Substitusi Energi Terbarukan

300 268,68 Juta ton CO2

Jumlah CO2 (juta ton)

250
200
150
100
50
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Tahun

Sumber: Susandi, dkk., 2008

 Pendapatan Nasional dari Substitusi Energi Fosil oleh
Energi Terbarukan
80
73,4 milyar USD
70
from Gas
from Oil 60,2 milyar USD
60 from Coal

50
$US per year
*109

40

30
22,2 milyar USD
20

10

0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Tahun
Sumber: Susandi, dkk., 2008
TERIMA KASIH