FINAL ASSIGNMENT

Code: 5

Lecturer’s Signature
Program: IB, AC, MIS, BDA
Course Code: MAT 1004
Course Title: Theory of Probability & Mat. Statistics Dr. Nguyễn Văn Hạnh
Date: 26/5/2021
Time allowed: 24 hours
Department’s Signature
Date: 13/6/2021 - 14/6/2021
Starting at 9:00, 13/6/2021
Ending at 9:00, 14/6/2021 Date: …/5/2021

Instructions to students:

1. At 9:00 AM, 13/6/2021, each student is assigned a final assignment with code number that is
identical to the last digit of his / her student code (for example: if a student code is 17071365 the
last digit is 5, and he / she must choose to do Final Assignment MAT1004 Code 5).
2. Final assignment consists of 5 problems, students should write the answers by hand to these
problems in 10 pages. Solution of problem 1 is written in pages 1-2, problem 2 in pages 3-4,
problem 3 in pages 5-6, problem 4 in pages 7-8, problem 5 in pages 9-10. Each page is numbered
clearly by hand writing in the right-top corner. Some pages not used are left with blank space.
Students should write clearly his / her full name and student code in the first row of the first page
(for example: Nguyễn Văn Thao, 17007365).
3. To submit the final assignment, students use CamScanner to scan all the above 10 pages and
save them to a pdf file, starting from page 1, then page 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10.
4. Students should finish submitting the final assignment / the pdf file with the file name: student’s
full name.MAT1004.lecturer’s name (for example: Nguyen_Van_Thao.MAT1004.Thanh) in
due time through MS Teams Assignment (do not be late in submitting the final assignment, since
the final assignment can not be submitted after the due time, 9:00AM, 14/6/2021).
5. Any violation of the above instructions will CAUSE ZERO MARK for the final assignment.
Problem 1 (2 points). Every month a clothing store conducts an inventory and calculates the
losses due to theft. The store would like to reduce these losses and is considering two
methods to do so: the first is to hire a security guard and the second is to install cameras.
The manager of the store has conducted the experiment: During the first 6 months he hired
a security guard (method 1) and during the next 6 months he installed cameras (method 2).
The monthly losses were reported as follows:
Security guard 350 289 407 398 470 259
Cameras 488 301 276 380 421 425
a/ Test with  = 0.05 to determine whether there is enough evidence to conclude that
expected monthly loss when installing cameras differs from 382.
b/ Since the cameras are cheaper than the guard, the manager would prefer to install the
cameras unless there was enough evidence to infer that the guard was better. Conduct a
hypothesis testing to advise what the manager should do? (Assuming equal variances and
using  = 0.05)
Problem 2 (2 points). A supermarket chain performed a survey to help determine desirable
locations for its new stores. The management of the chain wanted to know whether a linear
relationship exists between weekly take-home pay (x) and weekly food expenditures (y). A
random sample of eight households produced the data shown in the following table
Household 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
x 550 450 560 340 510 710 470 660
y 170 100 160 80 120 190 140 140
a/ Find the least square regression line.
b/ Perform the test H0: 1 = 0, HA: 1  0 (using α = 0.05) to determine whether there is
enough evidence to infer that a linear relationship exists between weekly take-home pay (x)
and weekly food expenditures (y).
Problem 3 (2 points). An auditing model correctly predicted bankruptcy of 90% of firms
that in fact did fail and correctly predicted non-bankruptcy of 80% of firms that did not
fail. Besides, the historical data shows that 30% of firms for which the model made its
prediction did fail in the last year.
a/ Find the probability that the model will predict bankruptcy for a firm.
b/ Find the probability that a firm will go bankrupt, given that the model has predicted it
will do so.
Problem 4 (2 points). To examine the effectiveness of its five annual advertising promotions,
a mail-order company has sent a questionnaire to each of its customers, asking how many
of the previous year's promotions prompted orders that otherwise would not have been
made. The following table summarizes the data received, where the random variable X is
the number of promotions indicated in the customers' responses:
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(X=x) y/100 0.25 1- (y/100+0.25+0.2+0.05+z/100) 0.2 0.05 z/100
In the above table: y, z are the last two digits of your student code (for example: if a student
code is 17071365 then y = 6, z = 5).
A previous analysis of historical data found that the mean value of orders for promotional
goods is $20, with the company earning a gross profit of 20% on each order. It is assumed
that customer behavior next year will be the same as last year, and the fixed cost of
conducting the five promotions next year is estimated to be $15000, with a variable cost of
$3 per customer for mailing and handling costs.
a/ Find expected value of X, variance of X and the expected gross profit per customer next year.
b/ How large a customer base must the company have to cover the cost of the promotions?
Problem 5 (2 points). In a public opinion survey, 80 out of a sample of 100 high-income
voters and 55 out of a sample of 80 low-income voters supported the introduction of a new
national security tax.
a/ Estimate, with 95% confidence level, the true proportion of low-income people who will
vote for the introduction of the tax.
b/ Can we conclude at the 5% level of significance that the proportion of high-income voters
favoring the new security tax is 10% higher than that of low-income voters?