Professional Documents
Culture Documents
021,725,1*'()25(67$7,21$1')25(67'(*5$'$7,2186,1*08/7,
7(0325$/)5$&7,21,0$*(6'(5,9(')520/$1'6$76(1625'$7$,17+(
%5$=,/,$1$0$=21
<RVLR(GHPLU6KLPDEXNXUR
(JLGLR$UDL
(URQH*KL]RQLGRV6DQWRV
$QGHUVRQ-RUJH
1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHIRU6SDFH5HVHDUFK ,13( $YGRV$VWURQDXWDV&(3±6mR
-RVpGRV&DPSRV±63±%UD]LO
^\RVLRHJLGLR`#GVULQSHEU^HURQHVDQWRVDQGHUVRQMRUJH`#LQSHEU
ZLWKIRXUFODVVHVROGGHIRUHVWDWLRQ DUHDVGHIRUHVWHGXS
WR WKH DQDO\]HG \HDU LQ WKLV FDVH QHZ
/DQGVDW70DQG5DSLG(\HLPDJHV GHIRUHVWDWLRQ DUHDVGHIRUHVWHGGXULQJWKHDQDO\]HG\HDU
)RU WKLV ZRUN ZH VHOHFWHG FORXGIUHH /DQGVDW 70 WR GHJUDGDWLRQIRUHVWDUHDVGXHWRIRUHVWILUH
LPDJHVDFTXLUHGLQ DUHDVRIIRUHVWWKDWKDVEHHQEXUQHGEXWQRWFOHDUFXW
DQG DQG RQH 5DSLG(\H LPDJH DFTXLUHG LQ DQG IRUHVWHG DUHDV LQWDFW IRUHVW DQG IRUHVW VHOHFWHG
WKDWZDVXVHGIRUYDOLGDWLRQSXUSRVHV 7DEOH ORJJHG DFFRUGLQJ WR >@ $OWKRXJK WKH VRLO IUDFWLRQ
LPDJHVKLJKOLJKWVHOHFWLYHORJJLQJDUHDVWKHUHLVQRWDQ
7DEOH/DQGVDW70DQG5DSLG(\HGDWDDFTXLVLWLRQ DYDLODEOHDSSURDFKIRUH[WUDFWLQJVXFKLQIRUPDWLRQIURP
/DQGVDW70 -XQ -XO $XJ WKHLPDJHV,QWKLVZRUNZHSURSRVHWRXVHDSL[HOEDVHG
/DQGVDW70 -XQ $XJ 6HS FODVVLILFDWLRQRIIUDFWLRQLPDJHV:HXVHWKHK\SRWKHVLV
/DQGVDW70 -XQ -XO $XJ WKDWVHOHFWLYHORJJLQJSL[HOSUHVHQWVDORZSURSRUWLRQRI
/DQGVDW70 -XQ -XO $XJ VRLOIUDFWLRQDQGPHGLXPYHJHWDWLRQDQGVKDGHIUDFWLRQV
/DQGVDW70 -XQ -XO $XJ ,Q RUGHU WR SHUIRUP WKH VWHSV OLVWHG DERYH VHYHUDO
/DQGVDW70 -XQ -XO 6HS GLIIHUHQWVWXG\VLWHVZHUHVHOHFWHGRYHUWKH/DQGVDW70
/DQGVDW70 -XQ $XJ 6HS RUELWSDWK DVVKRZHGLQILJXUH
5DSLG(\H 6HS
/LQHDUVSHFWUDOPL[LQJPRGHO
/LQHDU6SHFWUDO0L[LQJ$QDO\VLV /60$ DVVXPHVWKDW
SL[HOYDOXHVDUHOLQHDUFRPELQDWLRQVRIUHIOHFWDQFHIURP
D QXPEHU RI FRPSRQHQWV FDOOHG HQGPHPEHUV
0DWKHPDWLFDOO\ WKLV VWDWHPHQW LV H[SUHVVHG IRU HDFK
SL[HO RI WKH LPDJH DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH OLQHDU V\VWHP
HTXDWLRQV 7KH DLP RI VSHFWUDO XQPL[LQJ LV WR VROYH
WKHVH HTXDWLRQV IRU HDFK SL[HO RI WKH LPDJH REWDLQLQJ
WKH SURSRUWLRQ NQRZLQJ WKH UHIOHFWDQFH RI WKH
HQGPHPEHUV ,Q WKLV ZD\ D IUDFWLRQ LPDJH LV REWDLQHG
IRU HDFK HQGPHPEHU FRQVLGHUHG ZKLFK UHSUHVHQWV WKH
SURSRUWLRQRIWKDWHQGPHPEHULQWKHRULJLQDOGDWD
,WLVYHU\LPSRUWDQWWRDGHTXDWHO\VHOHFWWKHHQGPHPEHUV
DQG WKHLU VSHFWUDO VLJQDWXUHV DV WKHLU GHILQLWLRQ KDV D )LJXUH/RFDWLRQRIWKHVWXG\VLWHVXVHGWRSHUIRUPWKH
FRQVLGHUDEOH LQIOXHQFH RQ WKH DFFXUDF\ RI WKH ILQDO ZRUNWKHVDPSOHVLWHIRUDQQXDOPRQLWRULQJLQEOXHWKH
UHVXOW ,I WKH QXPEHU RI HQGPHPEHUV GHILQHG WRJHWKHU H[SHULPHQWVLWHIRU GHILQLQJWKHWKUHVKROGLQJYDOXHVIRU
ZLWK WKHLU VSHFWUDO VLJQDWXUHV KDV EHHQ FRUUHFWO\ VHOHFWLYH ORJJLQJ PDSSLQJ LQ RUDQJH DQG WKH WHVW VLWH
FKDUDFWHUL]HG WKH SURSRUWLRQ ZLOO FRQIRUP WR WKH FRYHUHG E\ 5DSLG(\H LPDJH XVHG IRU FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK
IROORZLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DOO LWV HOHPHQWV DUH JUHDWHU /DQGVDW70GDWDLQ\HOORZ
WKDQRUHTXDOWR]HURDQGOHVVWKDQRUHTXDOWRRQH
WKHVXPRIDOORIWKHPLVWKHXQLWDQG WKHHUURUWHUP 0DSSLQJQHZGHIRUHVWHGDUHDV
ZLOO EH QHJOLJLEOH 7KHUH DUH GLIIHUHQW PHWKRGV IRU ,QLWLDOO\ WKH 70 LPDJHV DFTXLUHG LQ DUH XVHG WR
VROYLQJHTXDWLRQ $SSUR[LPDWLRQXVLQJOHDVWVTXDUHV JHQHUDWH D IRUHVWQRQ IRUHVW PDVN EDVHG RQ ,13(¶V
WHFKQLTXHVLVRQHRIWKHPRVWFRPPRQDQGWKDWXVHGLQ 352'(6GHIRUHVWDWLRQPDSIRU\HDU>@7KHQWKH
WKLV VWXG\ >@ 7KH VRLO YHJHWDWLRQ DQG VKDGH IUDFWLRQ LQFUHPHQWDO GHIRUHVWDWLRQ LV PDSSHG IRU HYHU\ VWXG\
LPDJHV DUH JHQHUDWHG IRU DOO 70 5DSLG(\H LPDJHV \HDUXVLQJDVHPLDXWRPDWHGSURFHGXUHLPSOHPHQWHGE\
DSSO\LQJWKH/60$ 352'(6 SURMHFW RI %UD]LOLDQ ,QVWLWXWH IRU 6SDFH
5HVHDUFK>@
0HWKRGRORJLFDODSSURDFK 7KLV DSSURDFK LV DSSOLHG VXFFHVVLYHO\ IRU HDFK \HDU
7KH SURSRVHG PHWKRG LV SHUIRUPHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH IURP WR DQG WKH DQQXDO UHVXOWV DUH DQDO\]HG
IROORZLQJVWHSV WRJHQHUDWHDIRUHVWPDVNWRSUHYHQW IRU PRQLWRULQJ WKH GHIRUHVWDWLRQ FKDQJHV ZKLFK
PDSSLQJ DUHDV DOUHDG\ GHIRUHVWHG EHIRUH WKH DQDO\]HG RFFXUUHGGXULQJWRWLPHSHULRG
\HDU WR JHQHUDWH IUDFWLRQ LPDJHV IRU DOO LPDJHV 2QFH GHIRUHVWHG DUHDV DUH PDSSHG DQG PDVNHG RXW LQ
VHOHFWHG IRU WKLV VWXG\ WR DSSO\ WKH LPDJH WKHLPDJHVWKHVRLODQGVKDGHIUDFWLRQLPDJHVKLJKOLJKW
VHJPHQWDWLRQ SURFHVV WR D PXOWLWHPSRUDO GDWDVHW GHJUDGHG IRUHVW DUHDV EULJKW GXH WR VHOHFWLYH ORJJLQJ
FRPSRVHG RI VRLO DQG VKDGH IUDFWLRQ LPDJHV IRU WKH )LJD DQGILUH )LJE UHVSHFWLYHO\
DQDO\]HG \HDU WR JHQHUDWH PDS RI QHZ GHIRUHVWHG
DUHDVXVLQJWKHVRLOIUDFWLRQLPDJHV WRJHQHUDWHPDS
RIEXUQHGDUHDVXVLQJWKHVKDGHIUDFWLRQLPDJHVDQG
WR FRPELQH WKH UHVXOWLQJ WZR PDSV WR JHQHUDWH D PDS
&21&/86,216
$ IRUHVW PDVN LV HVVHQWLDO IRU GHYHORSLQJ D SURFHGXUH
IRU GHWHFWLQJ DQG PDSSLQJ IRUHVW GHJUDGDWLRQ DUHDV
7KHQ FKDQJHV LQGXFHG E\ VHOHFWLYH ORJJLQJ DQG IRUHVW
ILUHV FDQ EH LGHQWLILHG LQ WKH VRLO DQG VKDGH IUDFWLRQ
LPDJHV
7KH UHVXOWV LQGLFDWH WKH IHDVLELOLW\ WR PRQLWRU
GHIRUHVWDWLRQDVZHOODVGHJUDGDWLRQE\VHOHFWLYHORJJLQJ
DQG ILUHV LQ D WLPH VHULHV RI PXOWLWHPSRUDO PHGLXP
UHVROXWLRQ/DQGVDW70LPDJHV,QDGGLWLRQWKHSURSRVHG
)LJXUH 'HIRUHVWHG DUHDV PDSSHG GXULQJ WR
DSSURDFK VKRZV WKH SRWHQWLDO WR GLVFULPLQDWH VHOHFWLYH
WLPHSHULRG
ORJJLQJIURPIRUHVWILUHVZLWKLQGHJUDGHGIRUHVWV7KLVLV
YHU\ LPSRUWDQW IRU HVWLPDWLRQ RI FDUERQ HPLVVLRQV
7KHUHIRUH WKH FXUUHQW DYDLODELOLW\ RI KLJK IUHTXHQF\
GD\VLPDJHLQWHUYDO RI P VSDWLDOUHVROXWLRQGDWD
VXFKDV6HQWLQHOLVH[SHFWHGDOORZJUHDWLPSURYHPHQW
LQ WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI GHIRUHVWDWLRQ DQG IRUHVW
GHJUDGDWLRQ SURFHVVHV DQG FRQVHTXHQWO\ IDFLOLWDWH WKH
LPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIDFWLRQVWRSURWHFWWKHIRUHVWV
$&.12:/('*0(176
7KLV ZRUN KDV EHHQ VXSSRUWHG E\ )$3(63 )XQGDomR
GH $PSDUR j 3HVTXLVD GR (VWDGR GH 6mR 3DXOR ±
3URFHVVR 1R 7KH VWXG\ DUHD LV SDUW RI
WKH *OREDO )RUHVW 2EVHUYDWLRQV ,QLWLDWLYH *)2,
3URMHFW
5()(5(1&(6
)LJXUH 6HOHFWLYH ORJJLQJDUHDVPDSSHGGXULQJ
WRSHULRG FODVVLILFDWLRQRYHUWKH70 >@ ,13( 0RQLWRUDPHQWR GD FREHUWXUD IORUHVWDO GD
$PD]{QLD SRU 6DWpOLWHV 6LVWHPDV 352'(6 '(7(5
7DEOH 'HIRUHVWDWLRQ DQG IRUHVW GHJUDGDWLRQ DUHDV IRU '(*5$'H48(,0$'$6,13(S
>@ 6RX]D &0 5REHUWV '$ &RFKUDQH 0$
WKH WR WLPH SHULRG ,Q SDUHQWKHVLV WKH QHZ
&RPELQLQJ VSHFWUDO DQG VSDWLDO LQIRUPDWLRQ WR PDS FDQRS\
GHIRUHVWHGVHOHFWLYHORJJHGDQGEXUQHGIRUHVWDUHDVIRU GDPDJH IURP VHOHFWLYH ORJJLQJ DQG IRUHVW ILUHV 5HPRWH
WKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJDQDO\]HG\HDU 6HQVLQJRI(QYLURQPHQW
/DQGVDW70 'HIRUHVWDWLRQ 6HOHFWLYH >@ 6KLPDEXNXUR <( 'XDUWH 9 $UDL ( )UHLWDV 50
ORJJLQJ NP /LPD $ 9DOHULDQR '0 %URZQ ,)0DOGRQDGR 0/5
)UDFWLRQ LPDJHV GHULYHG IURP 7HUUD 02',6 GDWD IRU
PDSSLQJ EXUQW DUHDV LQ %UD]LOLDQ $PD]RQLD ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
-RXUQDORI5HPRWH6HQVLQJ
>@ (YD +' $FKDUG ) %HXFKOH 5 GH 0LUDQGD (
&DUERQL 6 6HOLJHU 5 9ROOPDU 0 +ROOHU :D 2VKLUR
27 %DUUHQD $UUR\R 9 *DOOHJR - )RUHVW &RYHU
&KDQJHVLQ7URSLFDO6RXWKDQG&HQWUDO$PHULFDIURPWR
DQG 5HODWHG &DUERQ (PLVVLRQV DQG 5HPRYDOV 5HPRWH
6HQVLQJ
,W LV DOVR SRVVLEOH WR HVWLPDWH WKH DUHDV WKDW UHPDLQV LQ >@ 6KLPDEXNXUR <( 6PLWK -$ 7KH OHDVW VTXDUHV
WKH VHOHFWLYH ORJJLQJ DQG EXUQHG IRUHVW FODVVHV LQ WKH PL[LQJ PRGHOV WR JHQHUDWH IUDFWLRQ LPDJHV GHULYHG IURP
IROORZLQJ \HDUV HJ ± NP RI VHOHFWLYH UHPRWH VHQVLQJ PXOWLVSHFWUDO GDWD ,((( 7UDQVDFWLRQV RQ
ORJJHGDQG ± NPLQ *HRVFLHQFHDQG5HPRWH6HQVLQJ
7KH GLUHFW FRPSDULVRQ RI RXU UHVXOWV DQG WKH DYDLODEOH >@6KLPDEXNXUR<(%HXFKOH5*UHFFKL5$FKDUG)
GDWDIURP,13(V352'(6DQG0DWW+DQVHQSURGXFWLV $VVHVVPHQW RI IRUHVW GHJUDGDWLRQ LQ %UD]LOLDQ $PD]RQ
QRW SRVVLEOH GXH WR WKH PHWKRGRORJLFDO SXUSRVH GXHWRVHOHFWLYHORJJLQJDQGILUHVXVLQJWLPHVHULHVRIIUDFWLRQ
352'(6 GRHV QRW FRQVLGHU WKH UHJURZWK DUHDV DV LPDJHVGHULYHGIURP/DQGVDW(70LPDJHV5HPRWH6HQVLQJ
/HWWHUV9RO1R±
+DQVHQ GDWD :H FDQ DOVR QRWH WKDW +DQVHQ GDWD
LQFOXGHV DUHDV RI EXUQHG IRUHVW DQG VHOHFWLYH ORJJLQJ
DUHDVDVDQQXDOGHIRUHVWDWLRQ