GLY213: EARTH’S RESOURCES:

Population and Geo-resources

Dyson MOSES (Ph.D.)

dmoses@unima.ac.mw or dysonmoses@gmail.com
+265881833015
GEORESOURCES - GLOBAL SUPPLY AND
DEMAND
 POPULATION AND GEO-RESOURCES

※World population is growing faster than at any time in history, and

mineral consumption is growing faster than population as more
consumers enter the market for minerals and as the global standard
of living increases
※What critical thought does this trend invoke?
 Does this mean that we will face a mineral supply crisis in the
21st century?
 If so, can we solve this mineral supply crisis by increased
mineral exploration, and will this exploration require more
geological information and better land access?
 POPULATION AND GEO-RESOURCES
※Historically, the mining industry is one of the oldest documented kinds of
human activity, since mankind for many centuries and even millennia, and also
today, has benefited from acquiring the riches of the earth
※Natural resources that have been mined and used by man have always
conditioned the economic and civilizational development of societies and
states
※At the 18th World Mining Congress, held in 2000 in the USA coined the motto
“Everything begins with mining”
※Max Planck though countered
“Mining is not everything but without mining everything is nothing”
 POPULATION AND GEO-RESOURCES

※World population is
projected to outgrow
the resource production
over time
 GLOBAL GEO-RESOURCE DEMAND
※World demand for minerals will be affected by three general factors:
a. Uses for mineral commodities
b. The level of population that will consume these mineral commodities
c. The standard of living that will determine just how much each person
consumes
※As new materials and applications are found, markets for mineral commodities
can expand considerably
 An example is seen in strontium, which was not widely used until the 1960s,
when it was found to be the most cost-effective means of preventing radiation
from escaping from colour television picture tubes, the market stimulated
extensive exploration and the discovery of many new strontium deposits
 GLOBAL GEO-RESOURCE DEMAND

※World demand for minerals

and energy resources keeps
growing year after year
 HUBBERT’S CURVE: PEAK THEORY

※In 1956 M.K. Hubbert made a bold prediction that oil production in the U.S.
lower 48 states would peak in the early 1970s
※The prediction was based on mathematical analysis of the time histories of
cumulative discoveries, production, and remaining reserves for a finite
resource
※The methodology was later applied to global oil production and other finite
resources such as coal, natural gas, uranium, and other mineral
※Thus, the theory of “peak oil” (and subsequently, of natural resource
scarcity in general) has consequently become associated with Hubbert and
“Hubbert” curves and models.
 HUBBERT’S CURVE: PEAK THEORY
※Hubbert developed his model based on two basic
considerations
1) Finiteness of resources:
 For a finite resource of fixed amount, at
time t = 0 and t = infinite, the production
rate will be zero
 Time, t = 0, refers to the reference time,
when the resource is just being started to
be consumed
 All the fixed resources will be eventually
exhausted; theoretically this time should be
t = infinite
 However for all practical purpose this time
is finite.
 HUBBERT’S CURVE: PEAK THEORY

※The curve plotted by Hubbert in 1956

was compared with the actual
production data and as can be seen
from the figure, the prediction was
fairly close
※Since Hubbert’s prediction, a number
of researchers tried to predict peak-
oil production using more detailed
mathematical formulations
 HUBBERT’S CURVE: PEAK THEORY

2. The second consideration is based on the following mathematical

formulation
 The actual production data up to year 1955 provided the basic trend or
slope of the initial part of the production curve
 Based on the estimated ultimate reserved at that time, Hubbert constructed
a series of curves, matching the area under the curve with the total
estimated ultimate reserve
 Recognizing that the peak-oil production will last for several years, Hubbert
adjusted the maximum in the curve
– Instead of making the maximum a sharp point, he flattened the top
 HUBBERT’S CURVE: ACCURACY

※Hubbert's forecast applied to gold production looks fairly well

predictive
 HUBBERT’S CURVE: ACCURACY

※Hubbert's forecast on oil looked spot-

on with minor deviations
 Production mainly from
conventional reserves
※Even by around 2010, his forecast
looked pretty good
 HUBBERT’S CURVE: ACCURACY

※But after 2010, looking at

US oil production relative to
Hubbert's prediction, the
last decade has been a
dramatic shock
※What happened?
 Technological advances
– unconventional
reserves are now
recoverable by oil
fracking
 HUBBERT’S MODEL CRITICS
※By far the prediction for the timing of a world peak oil
production rate and the subsequent predictions of many
others have proven inaccurate
※Consequently, the two fundamental questions advanced in
the critique are as follows:
1. What is the recoverable amount of the “initially fixed
supply”?
2. Can we predict the timing of the “progressive exhaustion”
of this ultimate resource amount?
 WHAT CAN WE SAY?

※Models are, first of all, methods to help the human mind

understand complex realities
※No model can exactly predict the future, but what a good
model should always do is to give us an idea of what to
expect
※Hubbert, like Thomas Malthus on population and many
others, need not feel alone in making unrealized
predictions concerning world oil production
POLITICS OF RESOURCES: AFRICAN CONTEXT

“The African continent shall never be developed by the generosity

and goodwill of the developed powers. It can become developed
only through a relentless struggle against the forces that have
vested interest in keeping it underdeveloped” Kwame Nkrumah
 POLITICS OF RESOURCES: AFRICAN CONTEXT
※Africa’s political economy has a history of the exploitation and mis-
management of its mineral and natural resources
※Decades after commercial exploitation of Africa’s natural resources began in
1884, Africa continues to host many of the large and unexploited deposits of
minerals globally
※The continent has:
 40 per cent of the world's gold reserves
 15 per cent of petroleum reserves
 80 per cent of platinum reserves
 Much of the planet's diamonds and copper
※However, the economic reality for the masses living in African countries flush
with those sought-after commodities is rather bleak
 POLITICS OF RESOURCES: AFRICAN CONTEXT

※Is it indeed a question of “resource curse”?

※Consider some examples
A. Angola - has an abundance of oil, and sizable diamond mines and
yet 40% of Angolans live in "extreme poverty”
B. Nigeria - extremely oil-endowed but two-thirds live in extreme poverty
C. DRC - vast wealth of gold, cobalt, copper, diamonds and tantalum,
yet extreme poverty is reality for about nine out of 10 people in
Congo
D. In most sub-Saharan countries - great volumes of minerals and
gems in the ground has not at all meant economic security for the
average citizen
 POLITICS OF RESOURCES: AFRICAN CONTEXT

※It is clear that Africa has not harnessed the full potential of its mineral
endowments for sustainable, inclusive development
 Mineral resources are extracted mainly for processing and use
outside the continent, and mineral sectors have remained an enclave,
disconnected from broader economies
※It is fair to say that the resources for development model that puts raw
materials suppliers (the third world countries) at a significant
disadvantage is not working to bring about equity or bring development
to Africa
※What are African political governments doing
 In 2009 the African mining vision (AMV) was born
 AFRICAN MINING VISION
※The vision advocates for “transparent, equitable and optimal
exploitation of mineral resources to underpin broad-based
sustainable growth and socio-economic development
※Major areas of intervention:
a. Improving the quality of geological data
b. Improving contract negotiation capacity
c. Improving the capacity for mineral sector governance
d. Improving the capacity to manage mineral wealth
e. Addressing Africa’s infrastructure constraints
f. Elevating artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM)
 AFRICAN MINING VISION:
IMPLEMENTATION
※Following the establishment of the AMV in 2009, in December 2011,
the Action plan for its implementation was approved by AU ministers
responsible for mineral resources development
※After implementation, for example in the DRC, a government
committee reviewed 61 mining deals over a decade up to 2006
 Found none acceptable
 It recommended renegotiating 39 and cancelling 22
 AFRICAN MINING VISION:
SUSTAINABILITY
※The critical concern is that most African governments do not
have the capacity to take stock of their minerals resources,
relying on transnational corporations to assess commercial
capacities of newly found discoveries

※This lack of capacity to verify data severely compromises

negotiation capacity and the continent’s bargaining power
※Building of human and institutional capacities towards a
knowledge economy that support innovation is key
POLITICS OF RESOURCES: MALAWI CONTEXT

※Since country independence in 1964, an agricultural-led development strategy

was promoted
 Currently the sector accounts, on average, for 30 per cent of national GDP
※For the past 10 years, the country’s mining sector has attracted considerable
interest from investors, fueling intensification of geological exploration
※The work led to the discovery of a range of minerals, including gemstones,
rare earths, uranium, niobium, coal, as well as oil and gas reserves
※The biggest mining venture launched in Malawi to date is the Kayerekera
Uranium Mine, commissioned in 2009
 Mining contributed about 10% of the country’s GDP until its closure in 2014
but now is back to 1%
POLITICS OF RESOURCES: MALAWI CONTEXT
※Malawi made an implementation of the Malawi Country Mining
Vision (MALCMV) – a localised version of the Africa Mining Vision
(AMV)
※The MALCMV featured six broader themes:
a) Geological and mineral information systems management
b) Environmental and social issues
c) Mineral sector governance
d) Artisanal and small scale mining
e) Linkages, investments and diversification
f) Fiscal regime and revenue management
 POST MALCMV IMPLEMENTATION

※Whilst the rhetoric suggests that the government is committed

to the AMV, in practice, the political will to make mining a key
driver of economic growth is still lacking
 A big gap between policy formulation and implementation
 Government sector prioritisation
 Financial and human resources insufficient to make the
MALCMV a realisable goal
SUSTAINABILITY
 GEO-RESOURCE SUSTAINABILITY
※The concept of sustainable development is now a widely used
term in many areas of activity related to the life of man
※In relation to mining, sustainability implies meeting the needs of
the present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their needs
※Seeks to prevent the depletion of natural resources, so that
they will remain available for the long term
※Broadly, it refers to the ability to maintain a process continuously
over time
 GEO-RESOURCE SUSTAINABILITY

※The implementation of sustainable

development means the integration of
activities in the following three key areas:
1. Technical and economic activities
ensuring economic growth
2. Ecological - ensuring the protection of
natural resources and the environment
3. Social - implying care for the employee at
the workplace and community
development in the area of the mining
environment
CHALLENGES IN ACHIEVING SUSTAINABILITY

※A key element of sustainable development within the scope of acquisition

and the use of natural resources is the rational and cost-effective extraction
of minerals
※However, modern man, accustomed to the availability of mineral resources,
forgets a most important fact, which is the inevitable depletion of non-
renewable resources of raw materials
※Recent decades in world history developing countries are attempting to
achieve dynamic economic development
※This is associated with an extremely fast-rising demand for various kinds
of mineral resources
OVERCOMING THE CHALLENGES: FRAMEWORK
 REFERENCES

 Robb L. (2004). Introduction to Ore Forming Processes. Wiley-Blackwell.

ISBN: 978-0-632-06378-9.
 Edwards, R. (2012). Ore Deposit Geology and its Influence on Mineral
Exploration. Springer Science & Business Media. ISBN: 9789401180566
 Carter, G.S., & Bennet, J.D. (1973). The Geology and Mineral Resources
of Malawi.Zomba: Government Print .
 Evans, A. (2010). An Introduction to Ore Geology. Oxford: Blackwell.
 Ridley, J. (2013). Ore deposit geology. Cambridge University Press.