GEO-SD303: Assignment 2

Saeed P. Langarudi∗

Autumn 2023

Requirements
• Please submit your assignment as an electronic, editable text file through
Mitt UiB.

• In your work, please include all the models or any other supplementary
materials developed for the assignment.

• In the homework assignments, you seldom (if at all) need to work with
causal loop diagrams (CLDs). Wherever you are asked to develop and
present a model diagram showing polarity of causal links or feedback
loops, that refers to the stock-flow diagram of your model. If a CLD
is needed, it will be mentioned explicitly.

• In this course, we use InsightMaker as our primary modeling software.

All the models must be developed in this software. Models in other
formats will not be accepted.

∗
saeed.langarudi@uib.no

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Introduction
The logistic models we created during the lectures are not the only ones
that explain an S-shape growth. Although from the same family of logistic
models, there is another generic structure that has been used widely in
the literature to explain the S-shape growth behavior. This structure is
usually called the SI (susceptible-infected) model. This model hypothesizes
the spread of a contagious disease (epidemy) similar to the adoption process
of a new product or technology that we discussed in the class. Table 1
shows the equations of the model, while Figure 1 represents its stock-flow
structure.

Table 1: Equations of the SI model

Equation Description (Unit)
S(t+dt) = S(t) - X(t) dt Susceptible (Person)
I(t+dt) = I(t) + X(t) dt Infected (Person)
X(t) = c P(t) S(t) Infection (Person/Day)
P(t) = I(t)/(I(t) + S(t)) Infection Probability (1)
I(0) = 100 - S(0)1 Initial infected (Person)
S(0) = 95 Initial Susceptible (Person)
c = 0.15 Social contact rate (1/Day)

Figure 1: Stock and flow diagram of SI model

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Note that the initial value of I (I(0)) is a function of S(0) (initial value of S).
Assuming 0 < S(0) <100, this equation guarantees that the initial value of the total
population remains equal to 100 regardless of any changes in S(0).

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 Please try to complete the following exercises and answer the questions
as concisely as possible. These exercises are designed to help you understand
how the diffusion (SI) model works and how it can be applied to real-world
issues of contagious nature. The exercises also help you learn how a model
can be calibrated to data. Finally, you will learn how to design and test
potential policies using a system dynamics model. Each exercise has 10
points.

Exercise 1
1. Recreate the SI model in the software and report the link to it. Your
model must have all the units correctly and consistent [2 points].

2. Determine the polarity of all the causal links and feedback loops [2
points].

3. Explain the logic behind every single equation and the overall causal
and feedback structure of the model. Your report should include a
figure of the model diagram with all the polarities identified [3 points].

4. Your explanation should also include the equations in the form of in-
tegral or differential equations. Follow the best practice of model doc-
umentation and presentation as we practiced in the class and previous
homework [3 points].

Exercise 2
1. Do you agree with the model assumptions? Where can it be improved
without adding too many details to it? Limit your response to 200
words [2 points]?

2. Based on your judgment and general guidelines provided in the lec-

tures, select a preliminary simulation setting, i.e., start and stop times,
DT, and time unit [1 point].

3. Simulate the model and visualize the dynamic behavior of its key vari-
ables (S and I). Based on your observations, adjust the preliminary
simulation setting you previously defined. Describe all the changes
you have made in this step and explain why [2 points].

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 4. Explain the overall dynamic behavior of the model2 [2 points].

5. Using comparative plots, show how the model’s behavior changes as

social contact rate (c) changes. Explain the causes of the behavioral
change [2 points].

6. Can you use the analogy of infection to describe a technology adoption

process? What would be the similarities and differences (less than 200
words) [1 point]?

Exercise 3
The SI model has been applied to many real-world epidemic problems, such
as COVID-19. One example is depicted in Figure 2, which presents COVID-
19 cases in Norway for about a year, from August 14, 2020, to July 27, 2021.

Covid Cases in Norway

1400 140000
New
Cumulative
1200 120000

1000 100000
Case per Day

800 80000

Case
600 60000

400 40000

200 20000

0 0
08/01/20 10/01/20 12/01/20 02/01/21 04/01/21 06/01/21 08/01/21
Time (Day)

Figure 2: Covid cases in Norway from August 2020 to August 2021, World
Health Organization online data repository (link to download: http://u.
pc.cd/75T7)

In this exercise, you are asked to calibrate the SI model to fit this data.
That is, change the model’s parameter values through iterative trial and
error until you achieve a simulation that closely replicates the data. In this
2
To explain the dynamic behavior of a model, you need to break down the simulation
time into small phases. Then for each phase, try to relate a variable’s changes to the
changes in other variables driving it. The best example of such a practice is in chapter 16 of
Jay Forrester’s seminal book: Forrester, Jay W. 1961. Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge,
MA: Productivity Press. In particular, see Figures 16.2 and 16.3.

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case, you have two parameters to play with: initial susceptible (S0 ) and
social contact rate (c). Note that you have the actual value of the other
unknown parameter, initial infected (I0 = 9877), directly from the data.
To facilitate the calibration process, you should bring data into the model
and then create a comparative graph so you can see simulation and data on
the same graph. If you do not know how to import data, post a help request
on our Mitt UiB discussion board.
1. Adjust the model simulation setting so that it is consistent with the
data [1 point].
2. Perform the calibration until you reach a satisfactory result. I have
done the calibration myself and have achieved the result shown in
Figure 3. Your result should not be very different than mine. Post
the graphs of the best fit and report the parameter set that produces
them [3 points].
3. The best fit we have achieved overestimates the initial exponential
growth phase and underestimates the asymptotic growth in the second
phase. Explain this behavior by attributing it to the model’s feedback
structure [2 points]?
4. Can you think of any solution for solving this systematic issue? How
should the model be changed to fix the problem? You do not need to
implement those changes in the model. Just try to hypothesize (less
than 200 words) [2 points].
5. Try to do some more calibration, this time including the initial infected
(I0 ). That is, you can play with I0 as a calibration parameter. This
additional parameter gives the model more flexibility and enables it to
better fit the data. Report the result including the best fit plot and
the parameter values that give you the best fit [1 point].
6. What do you think of this last calibration exercise? Which parameter
settings would you choose for your final model analyses, this last one
or the other one you achieved earlier? Explain why in less than 200
words [1 point].

Exercise 4
1. We usually create models to resolve an ongoing problem or avoid a
potential one. Assuming that the goal is to reduce the total number

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 Simulation vs Covid Cases Data in Norway
New Cases
1200
Data
Simulation
1000

800
Case per Day

600

400

200

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Time (Day)

Cumulative Cases
140000
Data
Simulation
120000

100000

80000
Case

60000

40000

20000

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Time (Day)

Figure 3: My calibration results

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 of infected cases, can you use the current SI model to explore solution
options? What options does the model provide [2 points]?

2. Try potential solution(s) you have in mind on the model. Explain the
solution(s) and why they should work. Your explanation should relate
the solution(s) to their impact on the model’s feedback structure [2
points].

3. Implement your solution(s) in the model. Explain how you have

changed the model to apply them. Report the results using figures
and text. Explain what worked, and what did not work [2 points].

4. Could you prevent the infection outburst within the boundary of this
model? Why (not) [1 point]?

5. What other solutions could help that are outside of the current model’s
boundary. Explain how they can help in terms of their impact on the
system’s feedback [3 points].

Exercise 5
In this exercise, we expand the model boundary to increase our policy (so-
lution) options. The new version of the model you build is called SIR
(Susceptible–Infected–Recovered).
After resetting all the parameters to their original values described in
Table 1, following the steps below to modify the model. Once finished, post
the link to your new model and include the model diagram in your report.

1. Add a stock of recovered people to the model, name it R, and assume

R(0) = 0 [1 point].

2. Connect I to R through a new flow (V), which can be considered as

the recovery rate [1 point].

3. Assume, V(t) = I(t) / d, where d = 14 (days) is the recovery time

(the average time it takes for a typical patient to recover from the
infection) [1 point].

4. Make sure that units are consistent [1 point].

5. Identify the polarity of the new causal links you have added [1 point].

6. Annotate the polarity of the new feedback loop(s) [1 point].

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 7. Initialize the model in equilibrium [1 point].
8. Disturb the equilibrium using a step function. Explain how you have
conceptualized the disturbance and how you have implemented it in
the model [2 points].
9. Explain your observations of how the model behaves in response to
the disturbance [1 point].

Exercise 6
1. Reset the model once again to its original parameter setting. Run
the model with appropriate simulation settings. Explain the reasoning
behind your particular selection of the simulation setting [2 points].
2. Post the graphs of the key model variables, including the recovered
(R) population. Explain the dynamic behavior of the new model. You
should focus your explanation on how feedback loops drive the model’s
behavior. You need to split the time horizon into a few (e.g., three)
phases and explain which feedback loops are dominant in each phase3
[3 points].
3. Using comparative plots, show how the model’s behavior changes as
social contact rate (c) and recovery time (d) change. Use feedback
perspective to explain the causes of the behavioral change [3 points].
4. Can you prevent infection outbursts within the boundary of this model?
Explain how [2 points].

Exercise 7
In the real world, recovered patients can become susceptible after a certain
time (e.g., 90 days). Reformulate the model so that it captures this new addi-
tion. This new model is called SIRS (Susceptible–Infected–Recovered–Susceptible).

1. Send the link to your new model. Report on the changes you have
made to its structure. Follow the best documentation and reporting
practice [5 points].
3
You can find another good example of how a dynamic behavior should be explained
in the following publication: Mass, Nathaniel J., and Peter M. Senge. "Understanding
Oscillations in Simple Systems." D-MEMO Working Paper (D-2045-2). System Dynamics
Group. Cambridge, MA: MIT, 1975.

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 2. Make sure that units are consistent [3 points].

3. Identify the polarity of the new causal links you have added and an-
notate the polarity of the new feedback loop(s) [3 points].

Exercise 8
1. Run the model with appropriate simulation settings. Explain the rea-
soning behind your particular selection of the simulation setting [1
point].

2. Post the graphs of the key model variables, including the recovered
(R) population. Explain the dynamic behavior of the new model. You
should focus your explanation on how feedback loops drive the model’s
behavior [4 points].

3. Using comparative plots, show how the model’s behavior changes as

"social contact rate" (c) and recovery time (d) change. Explain the
causes of the behavioral change [3 points].

4. Can you prevent the infection outburst within the boundary of this
model? Explain how [2 points]?

Exercise 9
1. The new SIRS model gives us a relatively large policy space, which
enables us to exercise more potential solutions. Can you name at
least three policy solutions that could be applied within this model to
prevent or mitigate the spread of the disease [3 points]?

2. Explain how each of the policies you mentioned above can help the
system’s behavior to improve [3 points]?

3. How would you translate these experiments into practical policy im-
plementation? Think of practical challenges each policy might face in
reality [3 points].

4. How would you operationalize the lessons of these experiments in a

real-world situation [1 point]?

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Exercise 10
1. Can you think of any application of the diffusion family models in your
own field of research? Explain in less than 200 words [3 points].

2. Rename the stocks and flows in the SIR/SIRS model to match your
case. Post a picture of your new diagram. Make sure all the vari-
able names are meaningful, and causal links and feedback loops are
annotated [3 points].

3. Simplify the model diagram and present it as a causal loop diagram

(CLD) [2 points].

4. What does the CLD miss compared to the stock-flow diagram? When
do you think the missing detail becomes important [2 points]?4

4
To answer this question, I recommend you read the following papers:
• Richardson, George P. 1986. Problems with Causal-Loop Diagrams. System Dy-
namics Review 2 (2): 158-70.
• Richardson, George P. Problems in Causal Loop Diagrams Revisited. System Dy-
namics Review 13 (3): 247-52.

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