IST 618

Final Exam

Instructions: Upload a single master report file (in pdf format) which should include all your
answers, graphs, diagrams, Vensim stock-flow screen shots, equations, explanations for each
question. Make sure you include the names of all group members in the master pdf file. Use
Vensim to develop the simulation models for all the questions. Include all the Vensim files
related to each question and name them appropriately. The Vensim models (.mdl) files and
Excel files should be placed in one single folder. Then compress the folder in .zip or .rar format
and upload the compressed file. Do not e-mail me your answers. Follow this instruction strictly
otherwise points will be taken off. Late submission will be penalized @ - 5 points/hr.

1. Campus police are investigating a hit-and-run accident in which the driver of a late-
model sports car has run down the statue of a popular mathematics professor. The
accident took place at 8:00 P.M., and using a tip from a bystander, police go to a
dormitory and at 10:00P.M. make an arrest. At that time, they measure the percent of
alcohol in the suspect's blood and find it to be 0.07%. Two hours later, at 12:00 A.M.,
while the suspect is being dried out at police headquarters, the police again measure
the percentage of alcohol in the suspect's blood and determine it to be 0.05%. (See
figure below). If the legal limit for alcohol content in the blood is 0.10%, was the
suspect legally drunk at the time of the accident? Explain your reasons. Use Euler’s
method (in a spreadsheet) to model the problem and then answer the question. What
is the effect of time step? (Hint: first, determine the exponential decay rate r from the
successive measures the percentage of alcohol)
2. Suppose two IT firms, x and y, are engaged in a cyber-warfare modeled by the
System:
𝑑𝑦
= −𝑐𝑥
𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑥
= −𝑏𝑦
𝑑𝑡
where x (t) and y (t) represent the number of active nodes (or servers) in organization x
and y, respectively. Solving this system yields the relationship

𝑐(𝑥 2 − 𝑥02 )
𝑦=√ + 𝑦02
𝑏

Parameters c and b are the combat effectiveness coefficients of organizations x and y,

respectively. They represent the strengths of the respective organizations. Assume that
firm y is more powerful than firm x (i.e., b > c).
𝑦0
Assume that c = λb for some λ < 1. Define 𝑛 = ⁄𝑥0 , (i.e., n is the ratio of initial nodes).

(a) Create a Vensim model and graph y (t) vs. x (t) for different values of λ and n.

(Suggestions: Use x0 = 100. Also initially take b = 1.5. Try different values of b. Does
the value of b really make a difference? Develop a stock-flow model, generate relevant
graphs and explain the results.
(b) Create a Causal Loop Diagram for the above scenario.
3.
a. Consider the Vensim model “Tragedy of the Commons” posted in the Blackboard (see
the folder “Some Illustrative Models”). There is a system of differential equations
underlying this model. Write down the differential equations in mathematical
(symbolic) form underlying this model. Make sure to define all the symbols with
respect to the model variables. (Use MS Word Equation Editor to write the equations)

b. Implement the model “Tragedy of the Commons” in Excel using Euler’s Method.
Make related plots. Assume time step =0.10

4. In a software organization, the number of programmers hired is one per $200K of

expected revenue per year. Based on this, construct a stock and flow model of staff
recruitment, using the stock flow structure, that takes the following into consideration.

– There are three kinds of programmer: Rookie, Experienced and Expert.

– All hires are done at the Rookie level, and programmers progress to Experienced with
an average delay of 50 weeks for rookies, and a delay of 150 weeks before experienced
become expert.

– On average, there is attrition from each programmer category. This is 5 % for Rookies,
2 % for Experienced and 1 % for Expert (per year).

- Assume annual expected revenue of the company is $50 million.

- Develop a stock-flow model, generate relevant graphs and explain the result.

5. Sociologists recognize a phenomenon called social diffusion, which is the spreading

of a piece of information, a technological innovation, or a cultural fad among a
population. The members of the population can be divided into two classes: those who
have the information and those who do not. In a fixed population whose size is known,
it is reasonable to assume that the rate of diffusion is proportional to the number who
have the information times the number yet to receive it. If X denotes the number of
individuals who have the information in a population of N people, then a
mathematical model for social diffusion is given by
 𝑑𝑋
= 𝑘𝑋(𝑁 − 𝑋)
𝑑𝑡

where t represents time and k is a positive constant.

a. Solve the model using stock & flow in Vensim and show that it leads to a logistic
curve.
b. At what time is the information spreading fastest?
c. How many people will eventually receive the information?

6. Suppose the employees of a sales division of a hardware company earn commission

which is dependent on the growth of sales revenue given by the following dynamics:

𝑑𝑠 𝑠
= 𝑟𝑠 (1 − ) − 𝑐𝑠
𝑑𝑡 𝐾
Where, s(t) is the sales revenue at time t, r is the intrinsic growth rate of sales revenue, and
the commission earned is a certain fraction of s which is c * s, where c is commission rate
(c =0.04), K is maximum possible sales revenue = $200 million, and initial sales, s0 = $20
million. The intrinsic growth rate r = 0.05 if s /K < 0.5, otherwise r = 0.03.
(a) Model the sales growth by using stock-flow in Vensim. What is the critical value
of c greater than which the sales revenue becomes unsustainable?
(b) Extend the above problem assuming that sales revenue growth is subject to
another threshold variable (represented by a).

𝑑𝑠 𝑠 𝑠
= 𝑟𝑠 (1 − ) ( − 1) − 𝑐𝑠
𝑑𝑡 𝐾 𝑎
Develop strategies for sustainable revenue and commission policy under various
condition of µ and c. Assume that a = µK, where 0.08> µ >0.02.

7. Draw a causal loop diagram reflecting the following set of equations associated with
logistic dynamics:
Where x1, x2 are two companies engage in competition. Here, α12 represents the effect
company 2 has on the company 1 and α21 represents the effect company 1 has on the
company 2. These values do not have to be equal. All interactions must be harmful
(competition) and therefore all α-values are positive. Also, note that each company can
have its own growth rate and resource constraints (K1, K2).

8. The spread of a computer virus in a network of computers can be modeled by the

following equation:

𝑑𝑉
= 2𝑉(1 − 𝑉)(1 − 3𝑉)
𝑑𝑡

where V is the fraction of the computers in the network that is infected.

(This means that 0 ≤ V ≤1.)

a) Develop a stock-flow model to find the equilibrium points of this model and
determine the stability.

b) If 5% of the computer is infected (so V = 0.05) initially, then what fraction of the
computers in the network will be infected in the long run?

9. Consider the Vensim model “Tourism and Environment” posted in the Blackboard
(see the folder “Some Illustrative Models”). There is a system of differential equations
underlying this model. Write down the differential equation in mathematical
(symbolic) form underlying this model. Make sure to define all the symbols with
respect to the model variables. (Use MS Word Equation Editor to write the equations)

10. Extend the stock & flow model of Predator-Prey (available in the Blackboard)
assuming that there exist two sets of prey (A & B) populations instead of one. In this
case, the predator ‘s gains are additive from the both prey populations. Assume that
growth rate of A > growth rate of B. Also, assume that prey population growth is
constrained by capacity (𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒, 𝐾𝐴 = 𝐾𝑏 ). Develop a stock-flow model. Generate
relevant graphs and explain the result. Also generate phase plots.