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Computers & Industrial Engineering 162 (2021) 107760

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Computers & Industrial Engineering


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/caie

Scheduling of a branched multiproduct pipeline system with robust


inventory management
Zhengbing Li a, Yongtu Liang a, *, Qi Liao a, *, Ning Xu a, Jianqin Zheng a, Haoran Zhang b
a
China University of Petroleum-Beijing, National Engineering Laboratory for Pipeline Safety/MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering/Beijing Key Laboratory of
Urban Oil and Gas Distribution Technology, Fuxue Road No.18, Changping District, Beijing 102249, PR China
b
Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba 277-8568, Japan

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: As the main transportation mode of refined products, multiproduct pipelines play an important role in ensuring
Multiproduct pipeline the downstream energy supply. Before the market-oriented reform of refined products, the construction and
Scheduling management of multiproduct pipelines were monopolized by giant state-owned enterprises, forming the self-
Market-oriented mode
operation mode. However, with the development of refined products market, the market-oriented operation
Demand uncertainty
Robust inventory management
mode has gradually formed. Under the new mode, the market demand presents a stronger uncertainty, resulting
in the scheduling method under self-operation mode may not be able to cope with the supply interruption risk
caused by demand uncertainty. The robustness of the obtained schedule is low. Aiming at above issue, this paper
proposes a method for scheduling of branched multiproduct pipeline system under market-oriented mode. The
method considers market demand uncertainty and robust inventory management. It can not only reduce addi­
tional operation cost caused by demand uncertainty, but also decrease the adjustment frequency of schedule, so
that the schedule is still feasible within a certain fluctuation range. Finally, the proposed model is validated by
applying it to a real-world multiproduct pipeline system.

minimum level. If the market demand deviates from the initial forecast
1. Introduction result during the implementation of the schedule, the schedule can also
be slightly adjusted through internal communication and coordinate of
Multiproduct pipeline is a bridge connecting the upstream refineries the enterprise.
with the downstream markets, along which there are input stations, However, with the development of refined products market, the
receiving depots, dual-purpose depots, pump stations and other types of market-oriented operation mode of multiproduct pipelines has gradu­
stations. Several products are conveyed through the pipeline in sequence ally formed. The requirement of future market can be no longer satisfied
from refineries to distribution centers (Zhou, Zhang, et al. 2020). by the original operation mode. A new system is established, which
Determine how to schedule a multiproduct pipeline is the key for includes multi-agent supply of upstream sources, unified transportation
ensuring oil supply and operation safety. of pipeline networks in intermediate part, and full competition in
The construction and management of multiproduct pipelines were downstream markets. It denotes that the operation mode of multi­
previously monopolized by some giant state-owned enterprises before product pipelines is gradually changing from self-operation mode to
the market-oriented reform of refined products. Based on the self- market-oriented mode(Yuan et al. 2020). Multiple suppliers are allowed
operation mode, multiproduct pipelines are only responsible to pro­ to compete the downstream markets under the new mode. The existence
vide transportation services for their upstream enterprises, and are not of multi-agent competition will increase the difficulty for accurately
open for third-parties(Yuan et al. 2019). The service market of each predicting market demand. At this time, a reasonable initial schedule
corporation is relatively fixed under this mode. The schedules can be may not be obtained if pipeline operators still make the schedule based
pre-made according to the reasonable forecast for market demand. In on the method under the original operation mode. The adjusting fre­
the whole process of schedule formation, pipeline operators ignore the quency for the schedule may also increase due to the influence of market
influence of inventory variation on the schedules, as long as the products demand uncertainty. Moreover, the real-time inventory of products is an
can be timely delivered to the depot when its inventory is at the important factor that cannot be ignored when formulating the schedule

* Corresponding authors.
E-mail addresses: liangyt21st@163.com (Y. Liang), qliao@cup.edu.cn (Q. Liao).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2021.107760
Received 8 February 2021; Received in revised form 30 July 2021; Accepted 18 October 2021
Available online 23 October 2021
0360-8352/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Z. Li et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 162 (2021) 107760

Nomenclature in line l (m3/h)


qsmax
l,i /qsmin
l,i Maximum/minimum flowrate in segment (i, i + 1) of
Sets and indices line l (m3/h)
L Set of lines indexed by l, l

T Set of time nodes indexed by t Binary parameters


O Set of products indexed by o yl,j,o Binary parameter indicating batch j in line l consists of
Il Set of all nodes and segments located on line l indexed by i, product o
i

R
Positive continuous variables
Il Set of refinery nodes located on line l (IlR ⊂Il ) CLt,l,j Left coordinate of batch j in line l at time node t (m3)
D
Il Set of depot nodes located on line l (IlD ⊂Il ) CRt,l,j Right coordinate of batch j in line l at time node t (m3)
JO
Il Set of output nodes located on line l (IlJO ⊂Il ) VBt,l,j Volume of batch j in line l at time node t (m3)
JI
Il Set of input nodes located on line l (IlJI ⊂Il ) VIt,l,i,j Volume of batch j transferred from refinery node i to line l
Jl Set of all batches in line l indexed by j during interval t (m3)
JOl Set of old batches in line l at initial time node(JOl ⊂Jl ) p
VIt,l,i,j,o Volume of batch j of product o transferred from refinery
Continuous parameters node i to line l during interval t (m3)
τt Duration of time interval(h) VDt,l,i,j Volume of batch j transferred from line l to depot node i
dt,l,i,o Daily demand of depot node i located on line l for product o during interval t (m3)
(m3) VDpt,l,i,j,o Volume of batch j of product o transferred from line l to
cp Unit transportation cost (CNY/(m3⋅km)) depot node i during interval t (m3)
crs Restart cost of idle segment(CNY) VJt,l,i,j Input volume of batch j through junction node i in line l
csl,i,o Cost of storing 1 m3 of product o at node i (CNY/m3) during interval t (m3)
dnl,i Distance from depot node i located on line l to refinery VTt,l,i,j Output volume of batch j through junction node i in line l
node(km) during interval t (m3)
vcl Capacity of line l (m3) p
VTt,l,i,j,o Output volume of batch j of product o through junction
vsl,i Volumetric coordinate of node i in line l (m3) node i in line l during interval t (m3)
vbl,j Initial volume of batch j in line l (m3) VSBt,l,i,j Volume of batch j in segment (i, i + 1) of line l at time node
vscl,i Capacity of segment i of line l (m3) t (m3)
vbp min
Minimum injection volume(m3) VSt,l,i Volume in segment (i, i + 1) of line l during interval t (m3)
max min
vtl,i /vtl,i Maximum/minimum volume that can be transferred Vt,l,i,o Inventory of product o at node i line l in at time node t (m3)
through junction node i in line l (m3) VRPt,l,i,o Output of product o at refinery node i line l during interval t
vfomax Maximum volume of product o that can be transferred (m3)
during the time horizon (m3)
Binary variables
vfl,imin Minimum batch volume exists in segment (i, i + 1) of line l
SIt,l,i,j Binary variable indicating refinery node i in line l is
(m3)
max pumping batch j during interval t
vrl,i,o Maximum output of product o at refinery node i in line l
SDt,l,i,j Binary variable indicating depot node i in line l is receiving
(m3)
batch j during interval t
vl,i,o Initial inventory of node i in line l for product o (m3)
STt,l,i,j Binary variable indicating junction node i in line l is
vmax min
l,i,o /vl,i,o Maximum/minimum inventory of product o at node i in transferring batch j during interval t
line l (m3) SBt,l,i,j Binary variable indicating batch j is existing in segment (i,
safe
vl,i,o Safety inventory of product o at node i in line l (m3) i + 1) of line l at time node t
vend Inventory of product o at node i in line l at the end of the SPt,l,i Binary variable indicating segment (i, i + 1) of line l is
l,i,o
horizon(m3) active during interval t
qpmax min NPSt,l,i Binary variable indicating idle segment (i, i + 1) of line l is
l,i /qpl,i Maximum/minimum injection flowrate at refinery node
resuming the flow during interval t
i in line l (m3/h)
qdmax min
l,i /qdl,i Maximum/minimum delivery flowrate at depot node i

of market-oriented mode. The demand fluctuation will result in the in­ oriented mode in detail, including the scheduling model considering
ventory shortage of the depot, so the depot cannot meet the market demand uncertainty and robust inventory management and the solving
demand within the scheduling horizon. Aiming at above issues, this approach. In Section 5 and Section 6, a real case of China is used to test
paper proposes a method for scheduling of branched multiproduct the practicability of the proposed method, and the solutions under
pipeline system under market-oriented mode. The method considers deterministic demand scenario and demand uncertainty scenario are
market demand uncertainty and robust inventory management. It can obtained respectively. Moreover, the influence of uncertain parameter
not only reduce the economic loss caused by data uncertainty, but also on the model is also analyzed in Section 6. Finally, the conclusions are
decrease the adjustment frequency of schedule, so that the schedule is provided in Section 7.
still feasible within a certain fluctuation range.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, the liter­ 2. Literature review
ature review is given. In Section 3, the studied problem and model
requirement are described. Section 4 introduces the proposed method For the past decades, the optimal scheduling of multiproduct pipe­
for scheduling of branched multiproduct pipeline system under market- line system has been widely studied, which mainly focuses on the

2
Z. Li et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 162 (2021) 107760

optimization of injection and delivery schedule (MirHassani and

during the horizon, and suppose

inventory management through


three levels, and achieve robust
Ghorbanalizadeh 2008; Jr and Pinto 2003; Cafaro et al. 2015), pump

Consider demand uncertainty

demand conforms to normal


scheduling optimization(Zhou, Zhang, et al. 2019; Xin et al. 2019; Zhou,

Divide inventory limits into


Liang, et al. 2019) and inventory management (Liao, Castro, Liang, &

the chance constraint


Zhang, 2019c; Relvas, Matos, Barbosa-Povoa, Fialho, & Pinheiro,
2006). Most of the existing studies developed mixed integer linear

Market-oriented
programming (MILP) model or mixed integer nonlinear programming

distribution
Long-term
This work
(MINLP) model to deal with pipeline scheduling problem. Considering

Detailed
flowrate limitations, contamination management, hydraulic constraints

MILP
and so on, the model usually takes minimum makespan(Chen et al.

Branched pipeline system


2019), minimum operation cost (Cafaro, Cafaro, and Cerdá 2013; Liao,

Jahromi (2011); Liao,


Castro, et al. (2019b)
MirHassani and Fani
Liang, et al. 2018; Herrán, de la Cruz, and de Andrés 2012; Xu et al.

Consider upper and


Short-term/Long-
2021), minimum demand deviation (Liao, Zhang, Ning, Liang, & Wang,

Market-oriented
2018; Zhang, Liang, Liao, Shen, & Yan, 2018; Zhang, Liang, Xiao, Meng-

lower limits
Yu, & Shao, 2016) or minimum flowrate fluctuation(Cafaro and Cerdá

Detailed
2012; Chen et al. 2017) as objective function. Aiming at the scheduling

MILP
term
of multiproduct pipelines under self-operation mode, a series of studies
have been carried out on straight pipeline with single refinery and

Tsunoda Meira

limits into five


multiple depots (Zhang, Liang, Liao, Mengyu, & Yan, 2017; Zhang,

et al. (2021)

Straight multisource pipeline

Long-term
Liang, Liao, Shen, & Yan, 2018; Zhang, Liang, Xiao, Meng-Yu, & Shao,

inventory
Detailed

oriented
Market-

Divide
2016). In these studies, the authors developed a MINLP model to

levels
MILP
minimize the deviation between the planed volume and actual delivery
volume for products of each depot. However, their research did not take

Liao, Castro,
inventory management into account, but gave an assumption that the

upper limit
Short-term

Consider
depots had enough capacity to receive products. Relvas et al. (2013),

Detailed

oriented
(2019a)

Market-

MILP
et al.
Yu, Chen, and Xu (2020), Dimas et al. (2018) and Mostafaei et al. (2021)
introduced the upper and lower limits for inventory into their models,
and proposed a series of new MILP models that simultaneously realized

Straight pipeline includes single source with multiple terminals

lower limits
the scheduling optimization of multiproduct pipeline and depot in­

Short-term

upper and
Yu, Chen,

Consider
Detailed

oriented
Market-
ventory management. Combining heuristic method and MILP model,
and Xu
(2020)

MILP
Meira et al. (2021) put forward a generic solution framework to solve
the long-term scheduling on straight multiproduct pipeline with mul­
tiple sources and destinations. They made a more detailed division for
Cerdá (2004)

lower limits
Cafaro and

the inventory range of depot in their model. Besides the physical limits,

Short-term

upper and
Aggregate

Consider
oriented
Market-

each tank was also set with operational range and target range to assist

MILP
the inventory control.
Most of the existing research is carried out in a predictable and
stable environment. Market demand is taken as the fixed value in the
Zhang, Liang, Liao, Shen, &
Yan (2018); Zhang, Liang,

(2016); Liao, Zhang, et al.


The differences among this work and previous studies that consider inventory management.

models. Deterministic scheduling models have certain advantages if


Xiao, Meng-Yu, & Shao

Ignore inventory limits


market environment is predictable and stable. However, under market-
oriented operation mode, unpredictable events such as demand fluc­
tuation and equipment maintenance often occur. If above uncertain
Self-operation

Short-term

factors are not taken into consideration, the solution solved by deter­
Detailed

ministic model may be infeasible. Thus, it is indispensable to carry out


MINLP
(2018)

research on the scheduling of multiproduct pipelines considering un­


certain parameters to enhance the robustness of the schedule and
Cafaro & Cerdá (2008); Dimas, Murata, Neiro,

reduce the risk. Currently, the related work mainly focused on the
(2013); Relvas, Matos, Barbosa-Povoa, Fialho,
Boschetto, Magatão, Barbosa-Póvoa, & Neves

Straight pipeline includes single source with

management of downstream oil supply chain under uncertainty at


Relvas, & Barbosa-Póvoa (2018); Relvas,

strategic and tactical levels, while there are few studies on the optimal
Set market demand as the fixed value

scheduling of multiproduct pipelines under uncertain enviroment at


Consider upper and lower limits

operation level (Oliveira and Hamacher 2012; Oliveira et al. 2013).


Robust optimization approach (Ribas, Hamacher, and Street 2010),
single distribution center

fuzzy mathematical programming (Ghatee and Hashemi 2009) and


Short-term/Long-term

stochastic programming approach (Tong, Feng, & Rong, 2011; Zhang,


& Pinheiro (2006)

Li, Liao, Zhang, & Liang, 2019) are usually used to deal with uncertainty
Market-oriented

in the existing literature. Lima, Relvas and Barbosa-Povoa (2017)


adopted stochastic programming approach to deal with the un­
Detailed

certainties in oil price and demand, and developed a multistage sto­


MILP

chastic model to determine the optimal tactical planning of the


downstream oil supply chain. Asl and MirHassani (2019) proposed a
stochastic two stage MILP model and an accelerated stochastic solution
Scheduling horizon
Pipeline topology
Type of schedule
Operation mode

method to solve the multiproduct pipeline scheduling problem under


Market demand

management

flow rate uncertainty. Based on the reliability theory and pipeline


Formulation

Inventory

scheduling method, Zhou, van Gelder, et al. (2020) developed an inte­


Feature
Table 1

grated supply reliability evaluation methodology to estimate supply


reliability of the pipeline under pump failure.

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Z. Li et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 162 (2021) 107760

Fig. 1. Inventory profile under two modes.

In summary, the previous studies on the scheduling of multiproduct 3.2. Model requirement
pipeline are relatively mature, with a wide range of research directions
and rich achievements. However, few studies have considered demand Given:
uncertainty of downstream market in the scheduling model. Aiming at
this issue, this paper proposes a MILP model for scheduling of the • Initial products in pipeline and sequence of pumping batches.
branched multiproduct pipeline system under market-oriented mode • Depot information, including depots’ locations, limitations of
through taking market demand uncertainty and robust inventory man­ pumping rate and delivery flow rate, inventory limitations and initial
agement into full consideration. Chance-constrained programming inventory of different products at depots.
(CCP) approach is used to solve the model, and the schedule under • Pipeline information, including the segment volume and flowrate
market-oriented mode and inventory profiles of depots considering de­ limitations.
mand uncertainty are obtained. The risk that the depot inventory below • Production limitation of refinery.
its safety limit under different confidence levels is evaluated. The dif­ • Mean value of demand volume at depots.
ferences among this work and previous studies are shown in Table 1. • Cost information, including unit transportation cost and restart cost
of idle segment.
3. Problem description
Determine:
3.1. Scheduling of multiproduct pipeline under market-oriented mode
• Schedule under market-oriented mode.
The purpose of this study is to develop a method for the multiproduct • Inventory profiles of depots considering demand uncertainty.
pipeline scheduling under market-oriented mode. Some previous studies • The risk that the inventory of depots below their safety limits under
ignored the impact of demand uncertainty and inventory variation on the scenario considering demand uncertainty and robust
the schedule. However, the above two factors play an important role in management.
the process of the schedule formation under market-oriented operation
mode. In this study, the inventory limits of storage systems at depot can Objective:
be divided into maximum level, safety level and minimum level. As The objective function is to minimize the sum of transportation cost,
shown on the left of Fig. 1, the scheduling methods under self-operation restart cost in idle segments and inventory cost. To establish and solve
mode proposed by some previous studies paid more attention to two the model effectively, the following assumptions are proposed:
points when making the schedule. One is to ensure that the product
inventory of the depot does not exceed its maximum level to prevent the • The transported products are incompressible.
occurrence of tank overflow accident. The other is to timely deliver the • Pumped batches flow unidirectionally from the initial source to the
product to the depot when its inventory is at the minimum level. downstream depots.
However, the market demand presents a stronger uncertainty under • Due to the physical difference of products, the contamination will
market-oriented mode. The inventory of depot may be just at the min­ occur between two adjacent products when batches move in the
imum level under such a scenario, resulting in the shortage of product pipeline. The mixed oil section is considered as an interface.
storage capacity, which cannot meet the market demand within the
planned horizon. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the robust in­ 4. Methodology
ventory management of depots in the process of the schedule formation,
so that the real-time inventory of each depot is between its safety level 4.1. Framework
and maximum level. Under the scenario of uncertain demand, the depot
can use the product between the safety level and minimum level of in­ The framework of the proposed method for scheduling of the
ventory to ensure the supply of market, thus reducing the economic loss branched multiproduct pipeline system under market-oriented mode is
caused by the shortage of product storage capacity. As shown on the presented in Fig. 2. The detailed procedure can be further summarized as
right of Fig. 1, the blue area is the range of inventory variation under the follows:
scenario of uncertain demand. It can be seen that there is a certain Step 1: Establish detailed scheduling model for the branched pipeline
probability that the inventory will be below the safety level if market system.
demand uncertainty is considered. Additionally, the probability that the Step 2: Acquire the input parameters, including deterministic values
inventory is below its safety level has an impact on the range of in­ mentioned in Section 3.3 and random variables that follow a normal
ventory variation. In the figure, the area enclosed by the two dark blue distribution.
broken lines represents the range of inventory variation when the Step 3: Introduce robust inventory management into the model on
probability is reduced. Therefore, it can control this probability to deal the basis of market demand uncertainty.
with demand uncertainty. Step 4: Convert stochastic chance constraints into deterministic ones
through the CCP approach by giving a certain confidence level (αi) for
each constraint i.

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Z. Li et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 162 (2021) 107760

Fig. 2. The framework of methodology.

Step 5: Reformulate the scheduling model under the scenario of to some extent (Li et al., 2004; Zhang, Engel, et al. 2018). Therefore, the
deterministic demand. CCP approach may be more suitable for the studied problem.
Step 6: Solve the deterministic model and obtain solutions.
Step 7: Repeat steps 4–5 under different confidence levels and obtain
4.2. Mathematical model
final decision solutions.
Note that chance-constrained programming approach is applied in
4.2.1. Objective function
this study to deal with parameter uncertainty, instead of robust opti­
In this section, a MILP model considering demand uncertainty and
mization approach, while they are two major approaches that handle
robust inventory management is proposed for the scheduling of a
parameter uncertainty by introducing conservatism. For robust optimi­
branched multiproduct pipeline system under market-oriented mode.
zation approach, it has been successful in various applications because it
The proposed mathematical model involves ten sets: set of lines(L); set of
does not need to assume the distribution of uncertain parameter.
time nodes(T); set of products (O); set of batches existing in line l (JOl );
However, it may not be appropriate for the scheduling of multiproduct
set of all batches(Jl ); set of all nodes and segments located on line l (Il );
pipeline under market-oriented mode compared to CCP approach for the
set of refinery nodes located on line l (IlR ); set of depot nodes located on
following reason. Robust optimization emphasizes the hard constraints,
line l (IlD ); set of output nodes located on line l (IlJO ); set of input nodes
and its solution needs to guarantee that all constraints are feasible when
the uncertain parameter is arbitrarily valued in a given set. It does not located on line l (IlJI ). The objective function discussed in this study is to
fully consider the feature of depot inventory in the scheduling of minimize the sum of three terms of costs, as shown in Eq.(3). The first
multiproduct pipeline. On the other hand, its optimization is based on term calculates the transportation cost to transfer products from the
the worst case, and the solution is more conservative. CCP approach refinery to all depots. The second term calculates the restart cost in idle
considers that the solution may not meet the constraints under adverse segments. The last term gives an estimation of the inventory cost. We use
circumstances. The obtained solution is allowed to violate the constraint the formula to calculate the inventory cost in ref (Liao, Zhang, et al.
2019).

∑∑∑∑ ∑∑∑ ∑∑∑ ∑ Vt,l,i,o


minf = cp dnl,i VDt,l,i,j + crs NPSt,l,i + csl,i,o (3)
t<|T| l∈L i∈I D j∈Jl t<|T| l∈L i<|I | l∈L i∈Il o∈O t>1
|T| − 1
l l

5
Z. Li et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 162 (2021) 107760

4.2.2. Inventory management by summing the volume of all batches j ⩾j in line(i.e., Eq.(11)), while the

The inventory level of product o at each node must respect the vol­ left coordinate of batch j can be obtained by subtracting its batch volume
ume balance presented by Eq.(4), where parameter vl,i,o represents the in line from the right coordinate(i.e., Eq.(12)). The volume of old
initial inventory of product o at node i along the pipeline l. The inventory batches can be calculated by Eq.(13). Constraint (14) shows that the
at time node t is computed as the inventory at previous time node plus total volume of all batches inside line l should be equal to the line ca­
the input volume and minus the output volume during interval t − 1. For pacity vcl . The volume of each batch should follow the volume balance
the refinery nodes, the input volume is the produced volume of products batch
in Eq.(15). It indicates that the volume of batch j at time node t (Vt,j ) is
(VRPt,l,i,o ), and the output volume is the volume injected into the line
equal to the volume at previous time node(Vt−batch
1,j ) plus the input volume
(VIt−p 1,l,i,j,o ). For the depot nodes, the output volume is the consumed
and minus the output volume during interval t − 1. The input volume of
volume demanded by the local market(dt,l,i,o ), and the input volume is batch includes that the volume injected from the refinery node of line l
the volume delivered from the line(VDpt,l,i,j,o ). The inventory level of (in case of a main line) and the volume transferred from the junction
product o at time node t has to be maintained under specified limits, as node of line l (in case of a branched line). The output volume involves
imposed by Eq.(5). At the end of the scheduling horizon, there should be that the volume dispatched to the depot nodes and the volume trans­
enough inventory to guarantee the optimal run for the next planning ferred through the junction nodes.
period(i.e., (6)). ∑
∑ p CRt,l,j = VBt,l,j′ ∀j ∈ Jl , t ∈ T, l ∈ L (11)

Vt,l,i,o = vl,i,o |t=1 + Vt− 1,l,i,o − VIt− 1,l,i,j,o j ⩾j
j∈Jl
∑ p
+ VRPt− + VDt− − dt− CLt,l,j = CRt,l,j − VBt,l,j ∀j ∈ Jl , t ∈ T, l ∈ L (12)
1,l,i,o 1,l,i,j,o 1,l,i,o
j∈Jl

VBt,l,j ⃒ t=1
= vbl,j ∀j ∈ JOl , l ∈ L (13)
∀i ∈ Il , l ∈ L, t ∈ T, o ∈ O (4)

VBt,l,j = vcl ∀t ∈ T, l ∈ L (14)
vsafe max
l,i,o ⩽Vt,l,i,o ⩽vl,i,o ∀i ∈ Il , l ∈ L, t ∈ T, o ∈ O (5) j∈Jl

∑ ∑ ∑ ∑
vend
l,i,o ⩽V|T|,l,i,o ∀i ∈ Il , l ∈ L, o ∈ O (6) VBt,l,j = VBt− 1,l,j + VIt− 1,l,i,j + VJt− 1,l,i,j − VDt− 1,l,i,j − VTt− 1,l,i,j ∀j
i∈IlR i∈IlJI i∈IlD i∈IlJO
In general, its mathematical expression of CCP approach is as
∈ Jl , t ∈ T, l ∈ L
follows.
(15)
{ minf (x) }
s.t.Pr gj (x, ξ)⩽0 ⩾αj j = 1, 2, …, k (7) 4.2.4. Pumping operation
others; Let the binary variable SIt,l,i,j be equal to one if refinery node i is
injecting batch j into line l during interval t. Because refinery node must
where x is the decision variable, ξ represents the uncertain parameter
be an initial node of a line, its coordinate is set as zero. Therefore, if a
whose probability distribution function is Φ(ξ), f(x) is the objective
new batch is pumped into the line during interval t, its left coordinate
function, gj (x, ξ) is the constraint, αj (0⩽αj ⩽1) is the confidence level, Pr
must be zero at start time of interval t, as seen in Eq.(16). Otherwise, this
{gj (x, ξ)⩽0}⩾αj represents the probability that this constraint is satisfied.
constraint will be relaxed. Constraint (17) indicates that the refinery
The general method to solve chance-constrained programming is to
node can only pump a single batch during any time interval. If refinery
convert the chance constraint into the deterministic constraint accord­
node i is active during interval t, batch j receives the volume at a
ing to the confidence level given in advance, and then use the traditional
pumping rate should be within the range [qpmin max
l,i ,qpl,i ], as imposed by Eq.
method to solve the equivalent deterministic mathematical program­
ming model(Gao and Qin 2016; Jiao et al. 2012). Based on the trans­ (18). During the whole scheduling horizon, the injection volume of
formation method of deterministic model, Eq.(7) is equivalent to Eq.(8). batch j should be greater than the minimum injection volume(i.e., Eq.
(19)). The total volume of batch j pumped into line l can be computed by
p
minf (x) summing the product-disaggregated variable VIt,l,i,j,o , as stated in Eq.
s.t. gj (x, ξ)⩽Φ− 1 (1− αj ) j = 1, 2, …, k (8)
(20).
others;
( )
The constraints related to the uncertain parameter are Eq.(4) and Eq. CLt,l,j ⩽ 1 − SIt,l,i,j vcl ∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlR , j ∈ Jl , t < |T| (16)
(5). Through substituting Eq.(4) into Eq.(5), it can be converted into the ∑
chance-constrained programming form, as shown in Eq.(9). Then, this SIt,l,i,j ⩽1∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlR , t < |T| (17)
constraint can be transformed into deterministic constraint. The model
j∈Jl \JOl

can be solved by substituting the probability distribution function of


τt qpmin max R
l,i SIt,l,i,j ⩽VIt,l,i,j ⩽τt qpl,i SIt,l,i,j ∀l ∈ L, i ∈ Il , j ∈ Jl \JOl , t < |T| (18)
uncertain parameter and the corresponding confidence level. It is
noticed that constraint (10) should be introduced when CCP approach is ∑
adopted to solve the proposed model. It means that the inventory of the vbpmin ⩽ VIt,l,i,j ∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlR , j ∈ Jl \JOl (19)
node can be lower than the safety level but not lower than the minimum
t<|T|

level in a certain probability. ∑ p


VIt,l,i,j = VIt,l,i,j,o ∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlR , j ∈ Jl \JOl , t < |T| (20)
{ }
(9)
o∈O
Pr Vt,l,i,o ⩾vsafe D
l,i,o ⩾αt,l,i,o ∀i ∈ Il , l ∈ L, t ∈ T, o ∈ O
The transfer nodes refer that the junction nodes between consecutive
vmin D
(10) lines. The products are transferred from main line to branched line
l,i,o ⩽Vt,l,i,o ∀i ∈ Il , l ∈ L, t ∈ T, o ∈ O
through junction node i. Thus, each junction is a output node of a line
and an input node of another line. Let the binary variable STt,l,i,j indicate
4.2.3. Batch tracking
that batch j is transferring through junction node i of line l during in­
The variable CRt,l,j /CLt,l,j represents the right/left coordinate of batch
terval t. If STt,l,i,j is equal to one, for any batch j in line l to be transferred
j in line l at time node t. The right coordinate of batch j can be computed
through node i during interval t, its right coordinate at the end of this

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Z. Li et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 162 (2021) 107760

interval must have surpassed the node, contrary to its left coordinate(i. ∑∑ p ∑∑ p ∑∑ p
e., Eqs.(21)- (22)). At the end of next interval, the left coordinate of VIt,l,i,j,o + VDt,l,i,j,o + VTt,l,i,j,o ⩽yl,j,o vfomax ∀l ∈ L, j ∈ Jl , o
batch j should also not surpass node i. Meanwhile, the left coordinate of
t<|T| i∈I R t<|T| i∈I D t<|T|i∈I JO
l l l

batch j in another line l at this time node must be equal to zero, as shown

∈O
in Eq.(24). Otherwise, such constraints are relaxed. For junction nodes, (34)
at most one batch can be transferred during a time interval, as stated in
Eq.(25). The transfer volume of each batch is determined by its left (35)
′ ′ ′
VJt,l′ ,i′ ,j = VTt,l,i,j ∀l, l ∈ L, l > l, i ∈ IlJO , i ∈ IlJI′ , j ∈ Jl ∩ Jl′ , t < |T|
coordinate and the location of junction node, which should be within the
range [vtl,imin , vtl,imax ], as imposed by Eq.(26). The total volume of batch j 4.2.7. Production limitation of refinery
transferred from line l can be computed through Eq.(27). For refinery node i on line l, its output for product o should not
( )( ) exceed its maximum limit during the whole scheduling horizon, see Eq.
CLt,l,j − vsl,i ⩽ 1 − STt,l,i,j vcl − vsl,i ∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlJO , j ∈ Jl , t < |T| (21)
(36).
( ) ∑
vsl,i − CRt,l,j ⩽ 1 − STt,l,i,j vcl ∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlJO , j ∈ Jl , t < |T| (22) max
VRPt,l,i,o ⩽vrl,i,o ∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlR , o ∈ O (36)
t<|T|
( )( )
CLt+1,l,j − vsl,i ⩽ 1 − STt,l,i,j vcl − vsl,i ∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlJO , j ∈ Jl , t < |T| (23)
4.2.8. Flowrate limitations of pipeline segments
( ) ′ ′
CLt,l′ ,j ⩽ 1 − STt,l,i,j vcl′ ∀l, l ∈ L, l > l, i ∈ IlJO , j ∈ Jl ∩ Jl′ , t < |T| (24) The flowrate crossing segment i during interval t can be computed
through the volume balance presented in Eq.(38). The volume entering

STt,l,i,j ⩽1∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlJO , t < |T| (25) the downstream segment can be computed by subtracting the volume
j∈Jl received and transferred by depot node from the volume leaving the
upstream segment. During each interval t, the flowrate in an active
min
vtl,i max
STt,l,i,j ⩽VTt,l,i,j ⩽STt,l,i,j vtl,i ∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlJO , j ∈ Jl , t < |T| (26) segment should be kept in a feasible range [qsmin max
l,i , qsl,i ], as imposed by

∑ p Eq.(39).
VTt,l,i,j = VTt,l,i,j,o ∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlJO , j ∈ Jl , t < |T| (27) ∑(
o∈O VSt,l,i |i=1 = VIt,l,i,j |i=1 + VJt,l,i,j |i=1 )∀l ∈ L, t < |T| (37)
j∈Jl

4.2.5. Delivery operation ∑(


SDt,l,i,j is the binary variable indicating depot node i is receiving batch VSt,l,i − VIt,l,i+1,j + VTt,l,i+1,j ) = VSt,l,i+1 ∀l ∈ L, i < |Il |, t < |T| (38)
j from line l during interval t. The depot node i can receive batch j, if its
j∈Jl

left and right coordinates at the start and end of interval t can satisfy Eqs.
τt qsmin pipe max
l,i SPt,l,i ⩽VSt,l,i ⩽τt qsl,i SPt,l,i ∀l ∈ L, i < |Il |, j ∈Jl , t < |T| (39)
(28)-(30). When SDt,l,i,j is equal to one, the left coordinate of batch j has
not reached depot node i at start time of interval t, but its right coor­
dinate has surpassed the node at end time of interval t. Otherwise, such 4.2.9. Segment stoppage
constraints will be relaxed. Constraint (31) controls the size that can be To reduce the energy consumption of resuming the flow in idle
delivered from batch j to active depot node i on line l. Constraint (32) segments, pipeline operators often try to decrease the number of tem­
denotes that each depot node can only receive at most one batch during porary shut down. If a segment stoppage occurs, the scheduler should
an interval. The total volume of batch j received from line l can be ensure that there is only one batch of one product in the segment, so as to
avoid creating large contamination at the interface between consecutive
computed by summing the product-disaggregated variable VDpt,l,i,j,o , as
products. To achieve above goal, the binary variable SBt,l,i,j is introduced
stated in Eq.(33).
that is equal to one if batch j is inside segment i of line l at time node t.
( )( )
CLt,l,j − vsl,i ⩽ 1 − SDt,l,i,j vcl − vsl,i ∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlD , j ∈ Jl , t < |T| (28) Constraints (40)-(41) are added to determine the existence of batch j
present in each segment. The volume of batch j inside each segment can
( )
vsl,i − CRt,l,j ⩽ 1 − SDt,l,i,j vcl ∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlD , j ∈ Jl , t < |T| (29) be computed through Eqs. (42–44). Constraint (45) denotes that if the
segment is idle during interval t, there is only a single batch inside the
( )( )
CLt+1,l,j − vsl,i ⩽ 1 − SDt,l,i,j vcl − vsl,i ∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlD , j ∈ Jl , t < |T| (30) segment. Let the binary variable NPSt,l,i equal one if the flow of segment i
of line l is resumed and zero otherwise. Its value can be computed
τt qdl,imin SDt,l,i,j ⩽VDt,l,i,j ⩽τt qdl,imax SDt,l,i,j ∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlD , t < |T| (31) through Eq.(46).

∑ CRt,l,j ⩾SBt,l,i,j vsl,i ∀i < |Il |, j ∈ Jl , t ∈ T, l ∈ L (40)


SDt,l,i,j ⩽1∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlD , t < |T| (32)
( )( )
j∈Jl
CLt,l.j ⩽vsl,i+1 + vcl − vsl,i+1 1 − SBt,l,i,j ∀i < |Il |, j ∈ Jl , t ∈ T, l ∈ L (41)
∑ p
VDt,l,i,j = VDt,l,i,j,o ∀l ∈ L, i ∈ IlD , j ∈ Jl , t < |T| (33) SBt,l,i,j vfl,imin ⩽VSBt,l,i,j ⩽SBt,l,i,j vscl,i ∀l ∈ L, i < |Il |, j ∈Jl , t ∈ |T| (42)
o∈O


4.2.6. Mass balance of junction VSBt,l,i,j = VBt,l,j ∀l ∈ L, i < |Il |, j ∈Jl , t ∈ |T| (43)
Let the binary parameter yl,j,o indicate if batch j contains product o. If
i<|Il |

yl,j,o is equal to zero, constraint (34) enforces all disaggregated variables ∑


VSBt,l,i,j = vscl,i ∀l ∈ L, i < |Il |, t ∈ |T| (44)
about volume involving batch j and product o to be zero. The volume of j∈Jl
batch j leaving line l (VTt,l,i,j ) must be equal to the volume entering line l


(VJt,l′ ,i′ ,j ) through their junction node, as stated in Eq.(35). SBt,l,i,j ⩽(|Jl | − 1)SPt,l,i + 1∀l ∈ L, i < |Il |, t < |T| (45)
j∈Jl

NPSt,l,i ⩾SPt,l,i − SPt− 1,l,i ∀l ∈ L, i < |Il |, t < |T| (46)

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Fig. 3. The studied multiproduct pipeline system.

depots, among which N2 to N6 are located on mainline L1 and N7 is


Table 2
located on branched line L2. The branched line L2 is linked to mainline
Basic data of pipeline.
L1 through the junction N3. Due to the great difference in products
Pipeline section Length(km) Upper limit (m3/h) Lower limit (m3/h) properties, the contamination will be generated when different products
N1-N2 130.4 1,250 700 are transported in the pipeline. Therefore, it is necessary to arrange the
N2-N3 89 1,100 500 batch sequence reasonably in advance to reduce the volume of
N3-N4 50.5 1,100
contaminated products. The case considers nine batches transported

N4-N5 66.9 1,100 –
N5-N6 38.7 600 – through the pipeline. At initial time, the pipeline is full of P1 and starts
N3-N7 60 220 – to inject P2. The optimum batch sequence is P2-P3-P2-P1-P2-P3-P2-P1.
The scheduling models under self-operation mode and market-oriented
mode are solved respectively. All cases are solved by Gurobi 9.0.3 MILP
Table 3 solver.
Operation flowrate limitations of depots. Table 2 shows the details of the pipeline system, including the length
and flowrate limitations of each segment. The operation flowrate limi­
Node Upper limit(m3/h) Lower limit(m3/h)
tations of depots are shown in Table 3. In the case, we suppose the de­
N1 1,250 700 mand of each depot conforms to normal distribution, the variance is
N2 750 150
N3 250 100
40% of mean value. Table 4 presents the mean daily demand of each
N4 600 150 depot. The inventory data of each depot is shown in Table 5, including
N5 600 150 initial inventory and limitations of each depot. The costs are shown in
N6 600 150 Table 6 and Table 7.
N7 220 120

Table 6
5. Case study Economic data.
Type Value
To verify the method proposed in this paper, a long-term scheduling 3
Transportation cost(CNY/(m ⋅km)) 0.15
(20-day horizon) of a real branched multiproduct pipeline system in Restart cost(CNY) 10,000
China is taken as an example. The total length of this pipeline system is
433.3 km, involving a mainline and a branched line. As shown in Fig. 3,
three types of products(P1-P3) are conveyed from refinery N1 to six Table 7
Inventory cost.
Table 4 Node Cost(CNY/m3)
Mean demand of each depot for different products.
P1 P2 P3
Node P1(m3/d) P2(m3/d) P3(m3/d)
N1 0.20 0.31 0.42
N2 2,000 2,500 1,300 N2 0.27 0.42 0.49
N3 1,000 600 300 N3 0.60 0.60 0.60
N4 2,000 1,500 800 N4 0.56 0.50 0.55
N5 1,800 2,000 500 N5 0.50 0.52 0.58
N6 3,500 1,200 400 N6 0.49 0.56 0.60
N7 1,300 1,000 600 N7 0.52 0.56 0.55

Table 5
Inventory data of depots.
Node Upper limit (m3) Safety limit (m3) Lower limit (m3) Initial inventory(m3)

P1 P2 P3 P1 P2 P3 P1 P2 P3 P1 P2 P3

N1 114,000 85,500 57,000 24,000 18,000 12,000 6,000 4,500 3,000 54,000 40,500 27,000
N2 95,000 57,000 38,000 20,000 12,000 8,000 5,000 3,000 2,000 45,000 27,000 18,000
N3 9,500 5,700 5,700 2,000 1,200 1,200 500 300 300 4,500 2,700 2,700
N4 19,000 32,300 17,100 4,000 6,800 3,600 1,000 1,700 900 9,000 15,300 8,100
N5 32,300 28,500 13,300 6,800 6,000 2,800 1,700 1,500 700 15,300 13,500 6,300
N6 38,000 19,000 9,500 8,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 500 18,000 9,000 4,500
N7 28,500 19,000 17,100 6,000 4,000 3,600 1,500 1,000 900 13,500 9,000 8,100

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Fig. 4. Schedule under self-operation mode.

6. Results and discussion solutions of the scenario of deterministic demand can be obtained. It can
be concluded that the total cost within the scheduling horizon is
6.1. Results under self-operation mode ¥18,723,399. The schedule under self-operation mode is presented in
Fig. 4. It shows the migration of products in the pipeline system, the
By solving scheduling model under self-operation mode, the injection volume of refinery and delivery volume of depots in the whole

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Z. Li et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 162 (2021) 107760

Fig. 4. (continued).

scheduling cycle. The initial products in pipeline and locations of depots pipeline, and the arrows denote pumping or delivery operation of re­
can be found in the first line of Fig. 4. In this Gantt chart, the vertical axis finery or depots during current interval. As shown in Fig. 4, the shut-
represents the divided time interval and the horizontal axis denotes the down operation occurs in the segment N5-N6 of mainline L1 during
distribution of products in the pipeline during different intervals. The the intervals [216,240]h and [456,480]h, and line L1 always remains
bars with different colors indicate the volume of different products in the active at other times. Within the whole horizon, the number of resuming

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Fig. 5. Inventory profile of products at depots.

the flow in idle segments of line L1 is one. During the interval [0,360]h, minimum limit at time nodes t13(t = 288 h) t17(t = 384 h) respectively,
the branched line L2 always remains active, and the segment stoppages while that of P3 does not. The inventory of P1 at N5 reaches the mini­
occur in the remaining time of the horizon. The flow resumption of idle mum level(1,700 m3) at time node t14(t = 312 h), and the inventory of
segment never occurs in line L2 during the horizon. P2 decreases to the minimum level(1,500 m3) at time nodes t12(t = 264
The inventory variation of each depot is shown in Fig. 5. It can be h) and t18(t = 408 h). The inventory of P3 never appears the above
seen that the inventory of each depot is within its upper and lower limits. situation. At N6, the inventory of P3 reaches the minimum level at time
At time node t11(t = 240 h), the inventory of P1 at N3 decreases to the node t11(t = 240 h), while that of P1 and P2 does not. For N2 and N7,
minimum level(5,000 m3). At time nodes t5(t = 96 h), t10(t = 216 h) and their inventory never falls to the minimum limit during the whole
t17(t = 384 h), the inventory of P2 at N3 decreases to the minimum level horizon.
(2,000 m3). The inventory of P3 never reaches the minimum level in the If the previously obtained schedule is still adopted under the scenario
whole horizon. For N4, its inventory of P1 and P2 reduce to the of demand uncertainty, the inventory of above depots whose inventory

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Z. Li et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 162 (2021) 107760

Fig. 5. (continued).

Fig. 6. The number of times that the inventory of each depot is lower than its minimum level when the sampling times are set 5,000 times.

reaches the minimum level during the horizon may be lower than the this issue, pipeline operators may adopt railway or truck transportation
minimum limit. The scenario of demand fluctuation is simulated by mode to transfer products from adjacent terminals, which brings addi­
random normal sampling for product demand of each depot. Through tional transportation cost. Therefore, the robustness of schedule ob­
substituting the results into the obtained schedule, the number of sce­ tained by this method is low, and the schedule needs to be adjusted
narios that the inventory of each depot is lower than the minimum level several times during the implementation. Meanwhile, this method may
can be obtained, as shown in Fig. 6. The sampling times of this study is bring additional operation cost due to demand uncertainty.
set as 5,000 times. The orange rectangle indicates the number of times
that the inventory is lower than the minimum level, while the blue 6.2. Results under market-oriented mode
rectangle represents the number of times that the inventory satisfies the
limitation. It can be seen that there is a high probability that the in­ 6.2.1. The scenario considering demand uncertainty
ventory of P1, P2 at N3, N4 and N5, P3 at N6 is lower than the minimum This section first sets the product demand of downstream market as
level, while the frequency that the inventory of P3 at N6 is lower than its the mean value. By solving the scheduling model under market-oriented
minimum level is less. There is no such case for N2 and N7. mode, the schedule under the scenario of deterministic demand can be
The above results indicate that the scheduling method under self- obtained, as shown in Fig. 7. Compared with the schedule under self-
operation mode cannot cope with the risks caused by demand uncer­ operation mode, the refinery node R1 injects seven batches into line
tainty. Taking depot node N3 as an example, at time node t11(t = 240 h), L1 during the interval [0,240]h under the obtained schedule of market-
its inventory of P1 reaches the minimum level. When the demand oriented mode. Within the interval [456,480]h, only depot node N2
fluctuation in the downstream market occurs, the depot will not have performs the delivery operation. The shut-down operation occurs in the
enough products to supply market under the execution of previous segment N5-N6 of mainline L1 during the interval [384,456]h, and the
schedule, which will cause the risk of supply interruption. To deal with whole line always remains active at other times. Within the whole

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Fig. 7. Schedule under market-oriented mode.

horizon, the flow resumption of idle segment never occurs in line L1. segment of line L2 is three.
During the intervals [0,72]h, [216,240]h, [360,384]h and [456,480]h, Similarly, we adopt random normal sampling for product demand of
the segment stoppages occur in the branched line L2. At other times, line each depot to simulate the scenario of demand fluctuation. Through
L2 always remains active. The number of resuming the flow in idle substituting the results into the obtained schedule under the scenario of

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Fig. 7. (continued).

deterministic demand, the range of inventory variation under the sce­ considering demand uncertainty. As shown in Fig. 8, it presents the
nario considering demand uncertainty can be obtained. According to the range of inventory of product P1, P2 and P3 at N2. The blue area rep­
results, there is a certain probability that the inventory of each depot is resents the range of inventory considering demand uncertainty, and the
between the safety level and the minimum level under the scenario red dashed line indicates safety inventory level. Taking Fig. 8 (a) as an

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Z. Li et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 162 (2021) 107760

Fig. 8. Inventory profile of products at N2 considering demand uncertainty.

example to analyze, it can be seen that the inventory of P1 will change in lower than the minimum level. The depots can use the products between
the blue area during the whole scheduling horizon when considering the safety level and minimum level of inventory to guarantee the supply
demand uncertainty. During the interval [336,432]h, there is a certain of downstream market. It shows that the schedule obtained through the
probability that the inventory is below the safety level. Similarly, at time proposed method has certain robustness and is still feasible within a
nodes t10(t = 216 h) and t13(t = 288 h), the inventory of P2 may be certain range of demand fluctuation. The proposed method can reduce
below its safety level. The inventory of P3 may also be below its safety additional operation cost caused by demand uncertainty and decrease
level at time node t11(t = 240 h). The range of inventory at other depots the adjustment frequency of schedule. It also indicates that the safety
under the scenario considering demand uncertainty are shown in the limit of inventory may not be satisfied under the scenario considering
appendix. Although the inventory of some depots may be lower than the demand uncertainty. Therefore, we can consider introducing robust
safety level in the case of demand fluctuation, their inventory will not be inventory management to cope with different scenarios of demand

Fig. 9. Costs under the scenario considering demand uncertainty and robust inventory management.

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Z. Li et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 162 (2021) 107760

Fig. 10. The probability that inventory of each depot is lower than its safety level under different confidence levels.

fluctuation. In this section, robust inventory management is introduced into the


model on the basis of market demand uncertainty. That is, let the safety
6.2.2. The scenario considering demand uncertainty and robust inventory limit of inventory be satisfied under a certain confidence level that is
management used to represent the scenario of demand fluctuation. The specific
method is to solve the model by setting different confidence levels and
(1) Comparison of objective function using CCP approach. As shown in Fig. 9, it presents the total costs under
the scenarios of deterministic demand and uncertain demand. The

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Z. Li et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 162 (2021) 107760

Fig. 10. (continued).

orange dot represents the total cost under the scenario of deterministic inventory management, this paper puts forward a MILP model for the
demand, and the black dots represent the total costs corresponding to branched multiproduct pipeline scheduling under market-oriented
different confidence levels. As can be seen from Fig. 9 (a), the cost under mode with the objective function of minimum cost, including trans­
the scenario considering demand uncertainty is higher than that under portation cost, restart cost and inventory cost. Through CCP approach,
the scenario of deterministic demand. With the increase of confidence the model is successfully solved. Finally, a real-world branched multi­
level, the total cost presents an upward trend, as shown in Fig. 9 (b). product pipeline system in China is presented to illustrate the applica­
bility of the proposed model. The results show that the schedule
(2) Comparison of probability obtained through the proposed method has certain robustness and is still
feasible under the scenario considering demand uncertainty. The pro­
Through random normal sampling for product demand of each posed method can reduce additional cost caused by demand uncertainty
depot, the probability that the inventory of products at each depot is and decrease the adjustment frequency of schedule. For the future
lower than the safety level under different confidence levels can be works, the authors intend to consider the actual demand distribution of
obtained. According to the results, except for N2 and N7, the inventory products into model to make the model more realistic.
of other depots are all lower than their own safety levels under different
sampling times and confidence levels. As can be seen from Fig. 10, at a CRediT authorship contribution statement
given confidence level, the probability that the inventory of depot is
lower than its safety level gradually converges when the sampling times Zhengbing Li: Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Validation,
increases. With the increase of confidence level, the probability varia­ Writing – original draft. Yongtu Liang: Supervision, Funding acquisi­
tion shows a downward trend. Taking the probability variation of the tion. Qi Liao: Methodology, Validation, Writing – original draft. Ning
inventory of P1 at N3 as an example to analyze. It can be seen from Xu: Writing – review & editing. Jianqin Zheng: Investigation, Data
Fig. 10 (a) thatthe fluctuation of the probability variation decreases curation. Haoran Zhang: Conceptualization, Data curation,
when the sampling times reaches 1500th. While the sampling times Visualization.
reaches 2500th, the probability value begins to converge. When the
confidence levels are set as 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 0.95, and 0.99, the prob­ Declaration of Competing Interest
ability values of corresponding levels are 0.65, 0.61, 0.57, 0.51, 0.46,
and 0.39, respectively. The probability variation that the inventory of P2 The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
at N3 is lower than the safety level are presented in Fig. 10. It can be seen interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
that its probability decreases from 0.46 to 0.25 as the confidence level the work reported in this paper.
increases from 0.6 to 0.99. As shown in Fig. 10 (c)-(d), when the con­
fidence level increases from 0.6 to 0.99, the probability that the in­ Acknowledgements
ventory of P1 at N4 is lower than its safety level decreases from 0.64 to
0.38, and that of P2 at N4 decreases from 0.46 to 0.24. With the confi­ This work was partially supported by the National Natural Science
dence level increasing, the probability that the inventory of P1 at N5 is Foundation of China (51874325), Science Foundation of China Uni­
lower than the safety level decreases from 0.53 to 0.33, and that of P3 versity of Petroleum, Beijing (2462021BJRC009) and the Grant-in-Aid
decreases from 0.031 to 0.025, as shown in Fig. 10 (e)-(f). For N6, if the for Early-Career Scientists (19K15260) from the Japan Ministry of Ed­
confidence level increases from 0.6 to 0.99, the probability that the in­ ucation, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. The authors are
ventory of P1 is lower than its safety level will decrease from 0.48 to grateful to all study participants.
0.29. It indicates that the products between the safety level and mini­
mum level of inventory can be used to satisfy the market demand by Appendix
lowering the confidence level.
See Figs. A1-A5
7. Conclusion

Considering demand uncertainty of downstream market and robust

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Fig. A1. Inventory profile of products at N3 considering demand uncertainty.

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Z. Li et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 162 (2021) 107760

Fig. A2. Inventory profile of products at N4 considering demand uncertainty.

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Z. Li et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 162 (2021) 107760

Fig. A3. Inventory profile of products at N5 considering demand uncertainty.

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Z. Li et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 162 (2021) 107760

Fig. A4. Inventory profile of products at N6 considering demand uncertainty.

21
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Fig. A5. Inventory profile of products at N7 considering demand uncertainty.

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