PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY
A quantitative measure of uncertainty
A measure of the strength of belief in the occurrence of an uncertain
event
A measure of the degree of chance or likelihood of occurrence of an
uncertain event
Measured by a number between 0 and 1 (or between 0% and 100%)

2 types of probability
Objective or Classical Probability
 based on equally-likely events
 based on long-run relative
frequency of events
 not based on personal beliefs
 is the same for all observers
(objective)
Subjective Probability
 based on personal beliefs,
experiences, prejudices,
intuition – personal judgment
 different for all observers
(subjective)
Equally-likely Probabilities
(Hypothetical or Ideal Experiments)
Basic Rules for Probability
Combinatorial Concepts
Tree diagram of Combinatorial concepts
Order is not important - Combinations
Order is important - Permutations
Factorials
Conditional Probabilities
Product Rules for Independent events
The Law of Total Probabilities
Bayes’ Theorem
 Contingency Table and Joint Probability Table
- A joint probability table is similar to a contingency table,
except that it has probabilities in place of frequencies
- The row totals and column totals are called marginal
probabilities.
Example: Two groups of individuals were tested the effect of inoculation
in Cholera attack. One group had inoculated medicines, the other had no
medicines. Calculate the probability that an individual has no cholera’
attacked given that individual got inoculated medicines.
Attacked Unattacked Total
Inoculated 11 89 100
Uninoculated 21 79 100
Total 32 168 200
Attacked Unattacked Total
Inoculated 0.055 0.445 0.50
Uninoculated 0.105 0.395 0.50
Total 0.160 0.840 1.00
DISTRIBUTION OF
PROBABILITY
TYPES of RANDOM VARIABLES
A discrete random variable:
 has a countable number of possible
values
 has discrete jumps (or gaps) between
successive values
 has measurable probability associated
with individual values
 counts
A continuous random variable:
 has an uncountably infinite number
of possible values
 moves continuously from value to
value
 has no measurable probability
associated with each value
 measures
100 200 300 400 500 600
spending ($)

50

38

30 31

22

13
100 200 300 400 500 600
spending ($)
100 200 300 400 500 600
spending ($)
Discrete Random Variables
Example
Example
Example
Binomial Distribution
Example
Example
Poisson Distribution
Poisson Distribution
Example
 Examples
1. The probability that the LB medium will not go bad by the next morning is 0.80.
This LB status will affect the growth of E.coli in the next morning. The probability that
the E.coli grow given the LB medium will not go bad is 0.75. And the probability that
the E.coli grow given the LB medium will go bad is 0.30.
Calculate the probability of E.coli population will grow in the next morning?

2. The probability that one person gets tuberculosis is 0.03, while one can be broking
the leg is 0.08. Events tuberculosis and breaking leg are assumed to be independent.
a) Calculate the probability that one person can get both tuberculosis and
leg broken.
b) Calculate the chance that one person can get either tuberculosis or leg
broken.

3. Flip a fair coin 20 times. And analysis the outcomes. (Head or Tail)
a. What kind of this distribution?
b. Find the mean, variance, and sd of this distribution.
c. Find P(5), F(5) and P(x<5).