Ethiopia meteorology institute Issued on November/03/2023

SNNPR Meteorological service center

Meteorology forecast and early warning
Dekadal Bulletin for SNNNPR Meteorological Service center

1. Dekadal Climatology and assessment

1.1 Rainfall am
October third dekade rainfall climatology in most part of the regions received from 15 to 70 mm
of rainfall. Climatologically, western part of south west Ethiopia region (West Omo, Maji and Sheka
zone) received from 30 to 70mm amount of rainfall. Northern tip part of central Ethiopia region
obtain below 20 mm rainfall Figure 1A.

During the third dekade of October, total rainfall observed from 30 to 170 mm of in most part of the
regions. In this dekade the cumulative rainfall have received more than 100mm at station of
Arbaminch 146.4 mm/decade; Burji 117.1mm/dekade, M/Abaya 118 mm/dekade, Sawila 162.6
mm/decade, W/Sodo 176.9 mm/dekade, Tercha 125.4 mm/dekade, Masha 138.1mm/dekade and
Maji 142.5 mm/decade. In addition, based on station, heavy rainfall observed greater than 40mm
per day in south Ethiopia region such as at Arbaminch 48.1mm, W/Sodo 69.7mm, M/Abaya 52mm,
and Sawila 47.5mm on October 28, 24, 31 and 24 respectively. In Western Ethiopia region Maji
40mm, Mash (70.2 and 40.6) mm and Tercha 54.3mm on October 27, (27 and 29) and 27. In
addition Central Ethiopia region Worabe 55.9mm on October 28 (figure 1 B).

When we compare October third dekade current from climatology, Above normal and normal
condition in most part of Bega rainfall benefited areas. Above normal in most part of South west
Ethiopia and south Ethiopia regions in addition, some part of Sidama region and Gurage zone.
Normal condition in most part of Sidama region, most portion of Wolita zone and western part of
south west Ethiopia regions. Whereas, Below Normal condition received most part of central
Ethiopia region, Sheka Zone, northern part of Sidama region and some part of Wolita Zone in the
third Dekade of October 2023 based on percent of Normal rainfall map (figure 1 C).
A. Oct 3rd Climatology B. Oct 3rd Rainfall 2023 C. Percent of normal

Figure 1 October third dekade rainfall assessment

1.2 Number of rainy day in October third dekade

Stations in october third dekade during Bega season, highest number of rain day observed in Jinka,
Bilate, Arbaminch, Sawila, Masha, Hawassa, Burji, Tercha, W/Sodo, Tepi, Dilla, Emidibr and M/Abaya at
meteorological stations received rainfall 10, 9, 9, 9, 9, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 7, 7 and 7 days per dekade respectively.
Generally in all meteorological station received greater number of rainy day than the climatology
except Aman and Maji stations which equal to the climatology (see figure 2 below).

10 NRD_2023
NRD_Clim
8

6
NRD

Meteorological station

Figure 2 Number of rainy day in October third dekade

2.3 Moisture index

During the Third dekade of October 2023 almost all parts of SWE, Central Ethiopia, Sidama and
Southern Ethiopia regions parts have got Humid to Hyper Moist soil moisture see in fig.3 below.
This soil moisture is good for long cycle crops and Bega benefiting areas for agricultural
benefitting areas of the regions. There was Positive impact for crops which cultivated during
October and those are in different stages like cereal crops in SWE and Sidama regions, also good
opportunity to cultivating crops. Generally the last dekade was the good soil moisture for most
agriculturally benefitting areas in water requirement satisfaction and contribution. The soil
moisture in Central Ethiopia region (Gurage, Silte, Werabe and Emdibr) Harvest and post-harvest
activities are practices over most parts of Meher growing areas.

Figure 3 Moisture index During October 3rd dekade 2023

2.4.The vegitation greeness and deviationin the 3rd Dekade of October 2023
In the deviation (bottom map) shows that. Most parts of the Central Ethiopia, South western
Ethiopian and Sidama regions Small increment than the normal, but some pocket area of the
regions Small decrement than the normal condition (figure 4 A).

As we have seen the map, in the most part of the regions Southern Eastern Ethiopia, Central
Ethiopia, Southern Ethiopia and Sidama regions the indication there was very small decrement
condition(figure 4 B).

A B

Figure 4 Vegetation index and its difference during October 3rd dekade 2023
 2. First Dekade of November 2023 forecast and advisory
2.1 Rainfall forecast in the first dekade of November 2023
In the first dekade of November, climatology of rainfall obtain from 3 up to 60 mm in the regions.
Most part of Sidama, south west Ethiopia region and south Ethiopia regions received better
amount of rainfall relative to central Ethiopia region (in figure 5 A).

Based on the reginal and global weather deriving systems, cumulative rainfall of the first dekade
of November will have better distribution in the southern part of the country. During the first
dekade of November, most part of Sidama region, South Ethiopia Region and South west Ethiopia
region will be receive from 20 up 100mm of rainfall. In the other way in Northern part of central
Ethiopia region receive from 10 up to 30 mm amount of rainfall. Particularly, Central part of
Sidama region, South Ethiopia Region (Alle, Konso, Amaaro, Burji, Northern part of south Omo,
Southern part of Gamo and Gofa Zone), South west Ethiopia region (Sheka, and Maji) and
Southern part of Central Ethiopia region (Hadiya and Alaba zone) heavy rainfall per dekads.
Generaly, in this decade of November will expect heavy and above normal rainfall in Sidam,
Southern Ethiopia and South west Ethiopia region figure 5 B.

A Nov 1st Rainfall Climatology B Nov 1st Rainfall 2023

Figure 5 November first dekade rainfall forecast

2.2 Agrometeorological Advisory

In the coming November first dekade 2023, the meteorological forecast information indicates that
moist to Humid soil moisture conditions will be expect over Central part of Sidama region, South
Ethiopia Region (Alle, Konso, Amaaro, Burji, Northern part of south Omo, Southern part of Gamo
and Gofa Zone), South west Ethiopia region (Sheka, and Maji) and Southern part of Central
Ethiopia region (Hadiya and Alaba zone). This condition is a Positive Impact for Bega rainfall
benefit area for Agricultural activity, agro pastoral area and the availability of drinking water. In
the other way above normal and heavy falls have a Negative impact
 on ripen serial crop on the time of harvesting,
 floods in flood affecting area and
 soil erosion due to heavy fall in slant
 Irrigation of agricultural fields
 Early crops may be damaged
 In Generally other way try to pre-harvesting for the ripen crops and protect any damages
from unseasonal and heavy rain fall impact (Flood, malaria and cholera).

Tel:0462206795/7475 Fax0462206797, Mobile 09 P.O.Box 161, Email:

mosestizazu@gmail.com Debubmet@yahoo.com

Hawassa
Ethiopia
Nov 2023