JOURNAL SUMMARY

DOCTOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

GSDP8134 - STRATEGIC PLANNING AND PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

FORUM DISCUSSION 1

Scenario Planning Involves Making Assumptions About the Future and How the Business
Environment Will Evolve In Response To That Future.

LECTURER: DR WAN NORBANI

Team Members Matric No.

Norhafida Binti Ahmad Hafiz MC230120433

Submission Date: 20th July 2023 (Thursday)

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Question:
Scenario planning is making assumptions on what the future is going to be and how your business
environment will change overtime in light of that future. More precisely, Scenario planning is
identifying a specific set of uncertainties, different “realities” of what might happen in the future of
your business.

What are your views on the following questions:

1. What is scenario planning in strategic management?
2. What are the steps in scenario planning process?
3. Provide an example of scenario planning based on your experience or other experiences.

ANSWER
Scenario planning is indeed a valuable strategic management tool used to prepare for an uncertain
future by exploring different possible scenarios and their potential impacts on a business. It involves
creating a set of plausible and diverse future scenarios that can help organizations make informed
decisions, develop strategies, and adapt to various circumstances. Here are my views on the
questions raised:

1. What is Scenario Planning in Strategic Management?

Scenario planning in strategic management is a structured approach that organizations use to
anticipate and prepare for a range of possible future developments. It goes beyond traditional
strategic planning, which often assumes a single, linear future, by acknowledging the inherent
uncertainty and complexity in the business environment. Scenario planning aims to provide
decision-makers with a broader perspective on potential outcomes, allowing them to identify
risks, opportunities, and strategic responses.

Key elements of scenario planning include:

a) Multiple Scenarios:
It involves creating several different scenarios, each representing a distinct, plausible future
based on various critical uncertainties.

b) Exploration of Uncertainties:
Identifying and analyzing the key uncertainties and driving forces that could shape the future of
the business.

c) Strategic Insights:
Using these scenarios to gain insights into potential challenges and opportunities, helping
organizations make more robust and adaptable strategies.

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d) Adaptive Decision-Making:
Scenario planning encourages organizations to be flexible and adaptive in their decision-making
processes, as they are better prepared for a wider range of circumstances.

2. What are the Steps in the Scenario Planning Process?

The scenario planning process typically involves the following steps:

a. Define the Scope: Identify the specific issue, question, or area of concern that need to be
addressed through scenario planning.

b. Identify Key Uncertainties: Identify the critical factors or uncertainties that could significantly
impact the future. These could be technological, economic, social, political, or environmental
factors.

c. Develop Scenarios: Create a set of distinct scenarios that represent different combinations
of the identified uncertainties. These scenarios should be internally consistent and plausible.

d. Analyse Scenarios: Assess the implications of each scenario in the organization. What are
the risks and opportunities associated with each one?

e. Develop Strategies: Based on the insights gained from analysing the scenarios, develop
strategies that are robust across a range of possible futures.

f. Monitor and Adjust: Continuously monitor the external environment and compare it to the
scenarios you've developed. Adjust your strategies as needed to align with the emerging
reality.

3. Provide an Example of Scenario Planning Based on Your Experience or Other

Experiences:

Let's consider an example of a global technology company that is engaged in manufacturing

smartphones. In recent years, the smartphone market has been highly competitive and rapidly
evolving. The company wants to use scenario planning to prepare for potential future
developments. Here are simplified scenarios they might create:

a) Scenario 1: "Market Dominance of Established Brands"

In this scenario, the smartphone company assumes that established smartphone brands with
variance specifications and models continue to dominate the market. Competition remains
fierce, and innovation is incremental. Apple's success, for example in the smartphone market

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can be attributed to several factors, including innovation, marketing, leadership, and

ecosystem. One of the key reasons for Apple's success is its focus on innovation.

b) Scenario 2: "Disruption by New Technology"

This scenario envisions the emergence of a disruptive technology, such as augmented reality
glasses, that threatens traditional smartphones. The company faces challenges in adapting
to this new landscape. Apple company has leveraged the integration of AI and Machine
learning to enhance its camera features, natural language processing, and language
transition. The augmentation features can be witnessed in the A16 Bionic core processor.

c) Scenario 3: "Sustainable Tech Revolution"

Here, the company assumes a significant shift towards sustainability and environmentally
friendly products. They need to pivot their strategies to align with this growing trend. Apple
remains committed to its goal of being carbon neutral for every product that it makes by 2030,
and is allocating $4.7 billion in Green Bonds to help finance the expansion of clean energy
solutions and emissions reductions around the world.

By exploring these scenarios, the company can identify strategies to thrive in each possible
future, such as investing in R&D for new technologies in Scenario 2 or developing eco-friendly
product lines in Scenario 3. This approach helps them prepare for a range of uncertainties in
the smartphone market.

Scenario planning is a powerful tool for strategic management, as it encourages proactive

thinking and flexibility in a constantly changing business environment.