Professional Documents
Culture Documents
EU plots to regain its competitive edge How to pay less and still get top-flight staff
BIG READ, PAGE 19 PILITA CLARK, PAGE 11
Citadel says onus should be on banks over a 2015 dam disaster in Brazil
worth potentially tens of billions
of dollars of liabilities.— PAGE 10
to stress test risk of Treasury deals Shell boss Wael Sawan has
defended a shift in focus on energy
transition that has led several
senior executives to leave the oil
company’s green divisions in the
past six months.— PAGE 6
3 US basis trade bets soar 3 Regulators signal unease 3 Fears for bond market in event of sell-off i Music copyright fees surge
Growth in streaming and a post-
COSTAS MOURSELAS the hedge funds themselves. The US Hedge fund bets against US Treasur- lators worry it could lead to a collapse fund clients perform under various pandemic resurgence in public
AND HARRIET AGNEW — LONDON
Securities and Exchange Commission, ies futures climbed to new highs in the of the world’s most important bond stresses to make sure they have enough licensing of concerts has
Ken Griffin, founder and chief executive which regulates hedge funds, has pro- seven days to October 24, with record market. collateral to withstand a market shock. generated a surge to $41.5bn
of $62bn US hedge fund Citadel, has posed a new regime for the Treasury net shorts against the two-year and five- The BIS blamed a “disorderly reduc- Griffin said he was not opposed to reg- globally in music copyright
warned regulators they should focus on market that would treat hedge funds year future. Most, but not all, of these tion in margin leverage” as a contributor ulations capping the amount of borrow- annual revenues.— PAGE 6
banks rather than his industry if they like the broker-dealer arms of banks. bets were in the basis trade. to the collapse of the US Treasury mar- ing by hedge funds in the Treasury mar-
want to reduce risks in the financial sys- “The SEC is searching for a problem,” Citadel, alongside rival hedge funds ket in March 2020 at the onset of the ket, provided the proposals were “sub- i Indonesia’s nickel woes
tem stemming from leveraged bets on Griffin said. “If regulators are really Millennium Management and Rokos pandemic. However, in the Fed’s latest ject to sound economic analysis and A nickel mining corruption
US government debt. worried about the size of the basis trade, Capital Management, is among many Financial Stability Report last month, proposed for public comment”. crackdown by Indonesia led to
Global regulators have warned about they can ask banks to conduct stress that routinely use the basis trade. the central bank said risks related to the “If the SEC recklessly impairs the supply shortages and forced the
growing risks emerging from the so- tests to see if they have enough collat- The Bank for International Settle- basis trade “are likely mitigated by basis trade, it would crowd out funding country to import large quantities
called Treasury basis trade — selling eral from their counterparties.” ments and researchers at the US Federal tighter financing terms applied to hedge for corporate America, raising the cost of ore from the Philippines to keep
Treasury futures while buying US gov- Reserve are among those to have funds by dealer counterparties over the of capital to build a new factory or hire smelters operating.— PAGE 4
ernment bonds and extracting gains warned about the risks of a rapid past several quarters”. more employees,” Griffin said. “It would ........................................................................
from the small gap between the two ‘If the SEC recklessly build-up of hedge fund bets in the Treas- The prime brokerage divisions of also increase the cost of issuing new
using borrowed money. impairs the basis trade, it ury market, which is magnified by lev- banks play a key part in the basis trade debt, which will be borne by US taxpay- i Crossword and Lex
But Griffin said they should focus on erage levels that can exceed 100 times. because they lend money to hedge ers to the tune of billions or tens of bil- The Lex column, Business Life
the risk management of banks that ena- would crowd out funding If the trade moves against them and funds while using their Treasury bonds lions of dollars a year.” and the FT crossword can be
ble the trade by lending to hedge funds,
rather than try to increase regulation of
for corporate America’ hedge funds are forced to sell their
Treasury bonds at the same time, regu-
as collateral. Banks are expected to eval-
uate how the portfolios of their hedge
Additional reporting by Kate Duguid
Ruchir Sharma page 21
found inside today.— PAGE 11
INTERNATIONAL
Middle East
Polls show
Gaza war triggers rift among US Democrats Trump ahead
Biden’s stance secures Jewish
ing the conflict between Israel and
Hamas are heightened because five
of Biden in
support but leaves progressives years ago it was the site of the worst
antisemitic attack in US history, when a
five key states
alienated and Muslims outraged white supremacist shot and killed 11
worshippers at the Tree of Life syna-
gogue in Squirrel Hill. FELICIA SCHWARTZ — WASHINGTON
JAMES POLITI — PITTSBURGH
Last week, antisemitic graffiti was
Two polls yesterday showed US Presi-
From a hotel lobby in Pittsburgh, Mira- found in the local park, and police have
dent Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump
cle Jones had a warning for Joe Biden: increased patrols. “People are more on
as concerns over the economy and
the US president's staunch backing for edge,” said Feldstein.
splits within the Democratic party over
Israel in its war against Hamas is erod- “How can we call for a ceasefire when
the Gaza war drag down the president’s
ing support on the left and hurting his there are over 200 hostages being held
2024 re-election prospects.
re-election chances in 2024. and when Israel has a right to self-
“The White House has lost a lot of defence? What should be called for is the A New York Times/Siena poll found
people,” said Jones, a 35-year-old pro- surrender of Hamas,” said Zipin. Biden trailing Trump in five of the six
gressive political activist in the western Avigail Oren, a liberal US-Israeli his- most important battleground states,
Pennsylvania city where Biden will need torian in Pittsburgh, said political fuelled by doubts about his handling of
a strong turnout if he is to carry the dynamics were shifting rapidly and the the economy, questions about his age
swing state next year. unity within the community since the and discontent on other issues such as
Jones has seen Muslim-Americans in synagogue attack was at risk of coming the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
her area mobilising to ensure “anyone apart. She did not believe in standing by A CBS News poll also showed Trump
but Biden” wins in 2024, while black Israel “at all costs”, but she also felt ahead of Biden a year before the 2024
voters fear multiple international con- “alienated” from those who refused to presidential election. The poll found
flicts will jeopardise domestic priorities condemn Hamas and did not under- more voters thought they would be bet-
and liberal Jewish people feel “hurt and stand that Israel had a “right to exist”. ter off financially if Trump won in 2024,
isolated”. “I think you're going to see a “I think that every voter in the Jewish and that Biden had failed to win over
lot of people going to non-traditional community is currently reassessing Democrats in the way that Trump had
parties,” she said. where they were. Unless your head is convinced Republicans.
Since October 7, when Hamas buried in the sand, you have been forced American voters tend to focus on
launched the deadliest attack on Israeli to face the stakes, evaluate where politi- domestic concerns such as the economy
civilians since the creation of the Jewish cians decide if they are aligned with you, more than on foreign policy. But both
state — and Biden rushed to offer Amer- and if they are not what your polls show that Biden faces widespread
ica's strongest possible military and dip- priorities are.” discontent across a range of issues
lomatic support for its ally — the presi- Pro-Palestine in its response to the Hamas attack. “I now endorsing “pauses” in the hostili- ‘I think the In the Muslim community in Pitts- including national security.
dent's approval ratings have remained supporters in think a lot of people in the community ties to allow more aid to Gaza and nego- burgh, there is palpable outrage at Voters said they trusted Trump over
essentially flat. But beneath the surface, Pittsburgh also feel that Israel needs to defend itself,” tiate the release of hostages, it believes president Biden's stance. “We are the leader of the Biden on the economy by 59 per cent to
a rift has opened up among Democrats held a moment said David Feldstein, the owner of the that a full-blown halt to Israel's assault is correct free world, we are the ones who are sup- 37 per cent, the widest gap on any issue,
over the Middle Eastern conflict that is of silence for the Bagel Factory in the largely Jewish will benefit Hamas. posed to be protecting kids,” said one 41- according to the New York Times poll.
threatening to shatter the electoral coa- Israeli victims of neighbourhood of Squirrel Hill. Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic con- in what he year-old Palestinian-American tech Across the electorate Trump got bet-
lition that helped Biden defeat Donald Hamas’s attack “No matter what you do ,both sides gresswoman from California and is doing. engineer with family in Gaza, who ter marks on the economy, regardless of
Maranie R Staab/Anadolou via
Trump in 2020. are losing, I don't think it's a win-win sit- former House Speaker, acknowledged declined to be named out of fear that his gender, age, education or income level.
Israel's ferocious retaliatory offensive
Getty Images
uation for anybody but if you're going to that Biden was taking “a little hit” due to But it’s not relatives could be targeted. “How many If the election were held now, Biden
on Gaza, which is controlled by Hamas go in and slaughter some of the Jewish his Israel position, but she still backed without kids have to die before our president would lose to Trump by margins of
and home to 2.3mn people, has trig- people, something has to be done or it him. “I think the president is correct in thinks that it is necessary to call a cease- three to 10 percentage points in the bat-
gered outrage in the Muslim world. will continue forever.” what he is doing. But it's not without its its cost. fire? Is it going to take that every single tleground states of Arizona, Georgia,
More than 9,400 people have been Jill Zipin, founder and chair of Demo- cost. And that is called courage.” And that member of our community swears that Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania,
killed, according to Palestinian health cratic Jewish Outreach Pennsylvania, Other Democrats have distanced they are not going to vote for him?” the New York Times poll found.
officials, as Israeli forces have laid siege said: “I think the Jewish community is themselves from the White House posi- is called With the presidential election still a Biden was ahead in Wisconsin by only
to and bombarded the coastal enclave. very supportive of Biden — and the Jew- tion. Dick Durbin, the second-highest courage’ year away political operatives in Penn- two percentage points. Biden carried all
In the US, a Gallup poll released on ish community votes.” ranking Democrat in the Senate, told sylvania and nationally say that it is too of these states in 2020.
October 26 showed an 11-percentage- But Summer Lee, the progressive CNN he thought it was time for a early to draw any firm conclusions The New York Times poll found that
point drop in backing for Biden among Democrat representing Pittsburgh in ceasefire. “An effort should be made to about the outcome of the race. demographic groups that had backed
Democrats over the course of just one the House of Representatives, has called engage in conversation between the But Jones said it suddenly feels like an Biden by significant margins in 2020
month, tumbling from 86 per cent in for a ceasefire to allow more humanitar- Israelis and Palestinians.” uphill struggle to rally voters to back were now much more closely contested.
September to 75 per cent. ian assistance to be delivered. Chris Murphy, a Democratic senator Biden. “I do think that Biden might have Voters under 30 preferred Biden by
That split has been apparent in the “The only path to peace, the only path from Connecticut, asked Israel to enough votes to squeak out but there only a single percentage point, his lead
Pittsburgh area. Pennsylvania's two to saving more innocent Palestinian and “reconsider its approach and shift to a has to be serious work. It's like we're among Hispanic voters had dropped sig-
Democratic senators, Bob Casey and Israeli children and hostages is de-esca- more deliberate and proportionate back in the ‘war on terror' all over again nificantly and he had less of an advan-
John Fetterman, have remained in line lation,” Lee said last month. counter-terrorism campaign”. with no lessons learned. I think that's tage in urban areas than Trump did in
with the White House and backed Israel While the Biden administration is In Pennsylvania, emotions surround- what people are frustrated about.” rural areas, the poll found.
Agriculture
INTERNATIONAL
INTERNATIONAL
Indonesia
Turkey’s opposition ousts longtime leader forced to
Republican People’s party local elections scheduled for March next
year. The decision marks the most sig-
second round, which stretched into the
early hours yesterday.
Kılıçdaroğlu led a six-party coalition
in the May 2023 presidential vote,
group of senior officials and consultants
rather than seeking counsel from a
import nickel
votes out Kılıçdaroğlu in
aftermath of loss to Erdoğan
nificant shift in power in Turkey’s oppo-
sition since Kılıçdaroğlu became CHP
The vote for party chair will set the
stage for how the CHP, the secularist
which was seen as the opposition’s best
shot in years at unseating Erdoğan after
broader group of stakeholders.
Erdoğan has said that his Justice and
amid illegal
ADAM SAMSON
leader in 2010.
“I have been proposing a bold and
determined policy against the embar-
party of Turkey’s founding father Mus- two decades in power.
His loss, after an unprecedented run-
off, prompted widespread frustration
Development party (AKP) will fight vig-
orously to win back control of Turkey’s
two biggest cities, Istanbul and Ankara,
operations
TURKEY CORRESPONDENT
rassing and passive politics pursued by
‘I have been proposing a among opposition members, some of the capital, in next year’s local races.
Turkey’s main opposition party has our party for a while,” Özel told local bold policy against the whom have questioned whether the The AKP lost control of both mayoral MERCEDES RUEHL — SINGAPORE
HARRY DEMPSEY — LONDON
ousted its longtime leader Kemal media as the CHP party congress got soft-spoken 74-year-old was the right seats in 2019.
Kılıçdaroğlu following his comprehen- under way in Ankara on Saturday.
embarrassing and passive candidate to challenge Erdoğan, who is Özel, a 49-year-old former pharma- Supply shortages caused by Indonesia’s
sive loss against Recep Tayyip Erdoğan The first round of the vote for party politics pursued by [CHP]’ known for his fiery rhetoric. cist, is a longtime party grandee and had crackdown on illegal nickel mining
in a presidential election this year. chair was inconclusive, with neither Some party insiders have also said been seen as an ally of Kılıçdaroğlu. He have forced the country to import large
Members of the Republican People’s Kılıçdaroğlu nor Özel, the favourites in that Kılıçdaroğlu made too many con- is now calling for reform both in how the quantities of ore from the Philippines
party (CHP) voted early yesterday to the race, garnering a majority of votes tafa Kemal Atatürk, will prepare for cessions to smaller political groups that party is managed and how it approaches to keep smelters operating.
replace Kılıçdaroğlu with Özgür Özel, a among the more than 1,300 party dele- next year’s municipal elections. It joined the six-party opposition alliance, the upcoming elections, vowing on Sat-
veteran lawmaker who vowed to shake gates who took part in the poll. Özel comes when many analysts warn that while others have complained that he urday to take an inclusive approach. Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel
up the organisation’s strategy ahead of clinched a majority with 812 votes in the Erdoğan is sliding towards autocracy. delegated party management to a small Additional reporting by Funja Güler producer, has in recent months pursued
a corruption investigation across the
government that has led to delays in the
issuance of quotas for nickel mining.
Exports. Seafood More than 53,000 tonnes of nickel ore
and concentrates were shipped in May
and June from the Philippines to Indo-
China ban shakes up Japan’s scallop industry nesia’s Morowali region, where Tsing-
shan, the world’s largest stainless steel
producer, runs a large nickel smelting
complex, official Indonesian customs
data shows.
Those imports continued until at least
Beijing’s move seen as chance September, including a single shipment
to accelerate consolidation and of 39,500 tonnes from the Philippines to
Weda Bay, another large nickel smelting
shift focus to other markets complex, according to industry execu-
tives and a customs document seen by
the Financial Times.
LEO LEWIS AND KANA INAGAKI — TOKYO
Indonesia has rapidly risen to pro-
The jumbo scallops from the northern duce half the world’s nickel, a material
Japanese fishing town of Betsukai, on vital to stainless steel and the batteries
the island of Hokkaido, have a reputa- used in electric vehicles, but carmakers
tion for being among the most delicious and other customers are concerned the
on the planet, a cherished ingredient on ferocious growth has come at a high
a classic sushi plate. cost.
But for the past month, the Japanese Nickel ore contains more than 98 per
government has exhorted the public to cent waste and shipping it internation-
consume at least five of the delicacies ally is rare, given the expense. Indone-
daily to help draw down stocks that sia’s sudden pausing of quota issuance
have piled up after Beijing banned highlights how its regulation and
imports of the bivalves in August. enforcement have struggled to keep up
Last week, the US military bases in with the searing pace of the industry’s
Japan bought up hundreds of tonnes of growth.
scallops, crustacean casualties in what The Indonesian government has set
Washington’s ambassador to Tokyo up a task force to attempt to restart
Rahm Emanuel called the “economic quota issuance. The mining ministry
wars” with China. last month held discussions with mining
“It’s probably the biggest industry companies that had run out of quota
shock we’ve had in a decade,” Takeshi and could not operate normally, accord-
Ise, president of Marui Sato Kaisan, a ing to a letter seen by the FT. However,
scallop processing company in Betsu- industry executives said no real solu-
kai, said of the embargo, which China tions had emerged from the talks.
introduced after Japan began releasing “Whether the approvals will come in
filtered water from the Fukushima time is still left to be seen,” said the head
nuclear disaster. of one nickel company in Indonesia who
But even as businesses reel from the met the government, referring to the
aftermath, investors said that Beijing’s urgent need to source supplies to keep
ban could deliver an unexpected boost Japanese chain over the past year as it snapped up anese authorities began the gradual ‘It’s scores of small companies were already their smelter running to the end of the
for the industry, offering an opportunity Kura Sushi is smaller rivals. release of 1.3mn tonnes of treated but close to collapse. year.
to accelerate consolidation and redirect selling thick “The challenge for us from next year still mildly radioactive water from the probably But as with other corners of corporate French miner Eramet last month cut
supply chains to sell directly into mar- scallops to prop is whether the fishermen, processing Fukushima Daiichi nuclear meltdown the biggest Japan, rivalry and hostility have pre- its forecast for 2023 nickel ore produc-
kets such as the US. up the fishing companies and trading houses can agree in 2011. The International Atomic vented consolidation among scallop tion from its flagship Weda Bay mine by
Scallops are Japan’s most exported sector. Scallops on an appropriate price so that Japan, Energy Agency approved Tokyo’s plan, industry companies, impeding one solution to 5mn tonnes to 30mn tonnes because of
food product, worth ¥91bn ($611mn) are Japan’s most the US and countries outside China can but China responded by imposing a flat shock we’ve the industry’s ills. the lack of quota.
last year, up 42 per cent on the year exported food buy the scallops,” said Ise. ban on imports of Japanese seafood, One company has begun to change The case that started the government
before. China is the biggest buyer, but product — Kimimasa The molluscs became a geopolitical sending prices tumbling and causing had in a that. Yoshimura Food has over the past crackdown relates to Aneka Tambang,
Mayama/EPA-EFE; Mei Coo
industry chiefs said that only about Teo/Alamy
target in July, one month before the Jap- inventories to pile up as fisheries decade’ eight years acquired a portfolio of more the state-owned miner, after neighbour-
10-15 per cent was consumed domesti- received low offers for unsold stock. than 30 regional food companies, and ing mines that ran out of nickel reserves
cally, while the rest was processed and The embargo, which included Hong recently two big scallop-processing were found to have illegally mined in
exported to the US and south-east Asia. Kong, also hit the crucial processing groups. It has also managed to build a areas assigned to the company.
Exports of Hokkaido-based seafood industry in China. Lost amid the trade reputation as a gentle corporate consoli- Prices of Philippine nickel ore have
products directly to the US jumped to furore, however, is how bad business dator and a friendly home for compa- jumped 23 per cent to $65 per wet met-
¥1.6bn in September from ¥1mn the was before the ban, investors said. nies with succession struggles, by ric tonne since August and the premium
year before, as sales to China, much of Despite the global appetite for scal- retaining the targets’ staff. for Indonesian nickel ore over the local
which was previously for processing and lops, the industry was suffering many- In doing so, it has raised hopes for the price benchmark has surged from about
re-export, fell to zero, according to cus- macroeconomic and demographic emergence of a Japanese scallop cham- $5 to $20 per wet metric tonne on panic
toms figures. issues plaguing Japanese business. pion with a far greater global market buying, according to Mysteel, a Chinese
“Japanese scallops are said to be one Fisheries and processing companies share and purchasing power. steel consultancy.
of the world’s finest so . . . we will defi- are suffering from a chronic staff short- “For us to hold the same bargaining Some analysts believe the supply
nitely be able to sell them,” said Moto- age, current workers are ageing and power as the large processing compa- issues could feed through to global
hisa Yoshimura, chief executive of many groups have no successor in place nies in China, we need to have a bigger nickel prices. Citi turned from bearish
Yoshimura Food, which controls about for elderly founders. Coupled with ris- scale,” Yoshimura said. “We want to cre- to neutral, predicting prices could rise
10 per cent of the country’s scallop mar- ing costs and lack of funds to invest in ate a market where we can negotiate for to $20,000 a tonne, up from $18,100 at
ket and whose share price has doubled modernising outdated equipment, appropriate prices.” present, on supply constraints.
Sovereign debt dilemma Political leaders beware, a new era of high interest rates has awoken bond vigilantes y RUCHIR SHARMA
3 Buffett unloads shares worth $5bn Since he took the top job in January,
Sawan has outlined plans to boost
Imagine your advert here immensity of the task facing the new
board and management team at Qantas
to restore its reputation.
line in August, accusing it of charging for
“ghost flights”, selling thousands of tick-
ets for flights that had already been can-
feral and seeking restitution,” he says.
Rachel Waterhouse, chief executive of
the Australian Shareholders’ Associa-
and board will be a rapid restoration of
Qantas’s reputation. They will at least
do so from a position of financial
Andrew Charlton, a former Qantas celled. tion, a retail-investor body, said share- strength — with the airline’s balance
executive and managing director of con- Shareholders criticised the “ghost holders were “very disappointed” with sheet bolstered by debt reduction and
sultancy Aviation Advocacy, said Aus- flights” defence offered by the airline, Qantas and needed to hear how the cost-cutting under Joyce — and in a
tralians used to be proud of Qantas. “If namely its argument that it did not sell a company would get back on track. domestic market where it still com-
you take that loyalty for granted mands a market share of more than 60
. . . that starts to chip away. The seem- per cent.
ingly ceaseless scandals and service If they fail to turn it around within a
lapses mean that now Qantas has even year, then they risk further turbulence
lost Australia,” said Charlton. The carrier, at next year’s meeting. Australia’s “two
The carrier, known as the “Flying known as the strikes” law dictates that investors
Kangaroo”, managed to fall out of favour ‘Flying Kangaroo’, could push to dissolve the board after a
with unions, regulators, customers and has fallen out of second vote against the company’s exec-
now shareholders during the 15-year favour with utive pay proposal.
Business for Sale, Business Opportunities, Business Services,
Business Wanted, Legal Notices, Company Notices, Public Notices, Floating Rates Notes,
tenure of Alan Joyce, who stepped down unions, Mayne said he was hopeful that Qan-
Shareholder Messages, Property For Sale, Tender Notices early two months ago. regulators, tas could overcome the turmoil, espe-
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Joyce’s steely focus on the carrier’s customers and cially now that Joyce, and soon Goyder,
Classified Business Advertising balance sheet meant that the airline now shareholders had moved on. Investors felt they have
Tel: +44 20 7873 4000 | Email: advertising@ft.com David Gray/Getty Images
exited the pandemic in good financial had enough “red meat” for now, he said.
Monday 6 November 2023 ★ 7
8 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 6 November 2023
Financials
Mining Technology
Tech giants
BHP aims to settle over Brazil dam disaster pour billions
Joint venture faces alleged south-eastern state of Minas Gerais. It
killed 19 people and devastated villages
Brazil that settles everything,” said Cal-
luf, adding that negotiations were
Calluf said BHP hoped that a settle-
ment with Brazilian prosecutors would
BHP said it would “continue to defend
the UK action and denies the claims in
into cloud
liabilities in the tens of
billions of dollars
and swaths of countryside because of an
avalanche of mud that contaminated
“pretty advanced”. “If the right condi-
tions were there and the legal certainty
cover all outstanding legal cases: “We
believe that the London lawsuit is dupli-
their entirety”. It denied that a deal in
Brazil would mislead shareholders
capacity
hundreds of kilometres of waterways. and releases, we would be willing to do a cating efforts in Brazil.” because it was hard to know at the time
MICHAEL POOLER — SÃO PAULO In the wake of the accident, which deal by the end of the year.” Thomas Goodhead, global managing of the accident its full extent and effects.
HARRY DEMPSEY — LONDON ranks as one of the country’s worst envi- The executive declined to quantify partner of Pogust Goodhead, the law Calluf said BHP had discussed reach- CAMILLA HODGSON — SAN FRANCISCO
ronmental catastrophes, federal prose- the possible compensation bill but said a firm behind the claim, said that BHP ing a potential final settlement with
Amazon, Microsoft and Google parent
BHP, the world’s largest mining group, cutors filed a lawsuit demanding deal could also include further repara- seeking a settlement in Brazil amounted both Vale and Samarco, a 50-50 joint
Alphabet look set to intensify capital
has said publicly for the first time that it R$155bn ($32bn) in compensation from tion works. Brazil’s Federal Prosecution to “misleading” shareholders since a venture between the mining groups.
spending, as the world’s biggest cloud
wants to reach a final settlement over a Samarco and its joint owners, BHP and Service was not immediately available London court found in July 2022 that “Samarco is and will remain the pri-
computing groups build up capacity to
dam disaster in Brazil worth potentially the Brazilian miner Vale. for comment. BHP also faces a case in there was minimal overlap between the mary party at any settlement on this
serve the growth of generative artificial
tens of billions of dollars of liabilities. BHP’s vice-president for legal affairs the UK brought by 700,000 claimants British and Brazilian cases. issue,” said Calluf.
intelligence.
The Australian company is on the for the Americas, Emir Calluf, told the seeking compensation for harm to “The time has come for BHP to stop “BHP’s role, as well as Vale’s, is to sup-
hook financially for the collapse of a tail- Financial Times that it aimed to soon homes and livelihoods. Their lawyers attempting to cut sweetheart deals in plement resources that may be needed The Big Tech groups, which together
ings dam that stored mining waste at the come to an agreement with public estimated maximum potential damages Brazil, without the involvement of the for the company to fulfil the terms of a dominate the global cloud market, have
Samarco iron ore complex in November authorities in the South American of £36bn this year. A trial is scheduled victims, and to face up to its liabilities,” settlement — which will certainly be the boosted investment in computing infra-
2015, near the town of Mariana in the nation. “The idea is to get a final deal in for October 2024. he added. case here.” structure over the past few years.
Capital spending rose to a combined
$42bn in the three months to Septem-
ber, almost 20 per cent more than the
Market questions. Week ahead same period in 2021. That figure, which
comprises reported corporate capex
from Alphabet and Microsoft and Ama-
Eurozone retail sales set to fall amid low consumer confidence zon’s businesswide investment in prop-
erty and equipment, marked a 10 per
cent rise from the quarter to June. Ana-
lysts expect the pace of cloud-related
spending to accelerate next year.
Will consumer sentiment in the Executives from the companies said
eurozone remain bearish? last month that significant chunks of
Consumer sentiment in the eurozone capital spending were going towards the
has been in the doldrums for much of generative AI systems that required
the past two years and this is unlikely to huge amounts of computing power and
change when the latest retail sales data data-crunching. Amazon chief execu-
is published on Wednesday, despite an tive Andy Jassy predicted that genera-
easing of price pressures. tive AI would drive “tens of billions in
The volume of retail sales across the revenues”.
20 countries that share the euro is likely The three tech giants are vying to
to have fallen for a third consecutive increase their shares of the cloud mar-
month in September as high interest ket — the business drives Amazon’s
rates, falling house prices and a deterio- overall profits in particular — and must
rating economic outlook weighed on remain competitive in AI to hold on to
spending. their customers. Each wants to win new
National data published in the past
week showed German retail sales fell
0.8 per cent in September from the pre-
The rivals ‘have to
vious month, which looks set to more compete on generative AI
than offset 0.2 per cent increases in the
equivalent figures for France and Spain.
or they’ll lose relevance
Consumer confidence in the EU has and market share’
been dropping since August, and the
European Commission’s latest survey customers with a suite of state of the art
found sentiment among companies in AI tools and services, and use the tech-
the retail sector had “decreased mark- nology to enhance other core products.
edly” in October. The rivals “have to compete on gener-
“While consumers are worrying less ative AI or they’ll lose relevance and
about inflation than in early 2023, they market share”, said Jeff Pearson, manag-
are now becoming more concerned ing director at technology consultancy
about the overall economic outlook,” Slalom. “All that is going to require a tre-
said Holger Schmieding, chief econo- mendous amount of capex”, for equip-
mist at German investment bank Beren- ment such as servers and data centres.
berg. Bank of America analysts predict the
Separate figures to be published collective cloud-related capex of Ama-
tomorrow will detail how quickly the zon, Alphabet and Microsoft will rise at
price of goods produced by eurozone an accelerated 22 per cent next year to
companies fell in September, providing $116bn. This year they raised their 2023
a signal about how quickly inflationary forecast from no growth to 14 per cent.
pressures are easing in the bloc. A fur- Last year the companies’ combined
ther sharp fall looks likely after German Shoppers cross a Such a contraction “would put the UK monetary policy that has been needed Sentiment inflation, rising house prices and low investment increased 20 per cent from
producer prices fell 14.7 per cent in Sep- road junction in economy into the early stages of what to combat high inflation,” it added. unemployment suggest the economy is 2021 to $84bn, BofA said.
tember, the fastest annual rate since central Berlin. we think will be a shallow recession, Valentina Romei among at full capacity — meaning interest rates Microsoft is “ramping up” investment
records began. Martin Arnold Germany is set extending until the first quarter of companies should rise. Bullock, in her first public at the fastest pace to support “an uptick
to weigh heavily 2024”, said Sandra Horsfield, an econo- Will Australia’s central bank keep rates speech as governor, reiterated her pred- in AI workloads” and their broader
How is the UK economy coping under on eurozone mist at Investec. on hold for a fifth straight month? in the retail ecessor Philip Lowe’s view that the bank cloud business, said BofA analyst Justin
the weight of higher interest rates? economic data Horsfield’s forecast, which is in line The first Tuesday of November is a spe- sector had had a “low tolerance” for high inflation, Post. All three groups, however, were
Investors will look at the UK’s gross this week after with consensus, is marginally below cial day for Australians as it is the date of rather than changing tone on the bank’s “investing ahead of future revenues”.
domestic product figures for the third its retail sales that of the Bank of England in its the Melbourne Cup horse race, also ‘decreased aim to get inflation, currently 5.4 per Amazon’s quarterly investment fig-
quarter published on Friday for an indi- fell 0.8 per cent November monetary policy report. known as ‘the race that stops a nation’ markedly’ cent, back to the 2-3 per cent target. ures include assets for its retail business,
cation of how the economy is coping in September The bank expects that the UK econ- due its popularity. Gareth Aird, head of Australian eco- which it invested heavily in during the
under the weight of higher borrowing from the omy flatlined in the third quarter after Michele Bullock, the recently in October nomics at Commonwealth Bank, said he pandemic. Analysts said the fall in Ama-
costs. previous month growing by 0.2 per cent in the three appointed governor of the Reserve Bank now ascribed an 80 per cent chance of a zon’s third-quarter investments, com-
Surprisingly negative news could Jacobia Dahm/Bloomberg months to June. The bank also expects a of Australia, may be ready to play party 0.25 percentage point rise in interest pared with last year, reflected a pullback
prompt investors to adjust when they marginal 0.1 per cent increase in the pooper, however, as the board of the rates to 4.35 per cent on Melbourne Cup in ecommerce spending. Amazon said
think the Bank of England will start cut- final quarter and no growth in 2024. By central bank meets and decides Day and expected the bank to raise its its retail capex would fall this year while
ting interest rates, which is not priced in the third quarter of 2025, UK GDP will whether to raise rates or to hold for a 2023 and 2024 inflation targets as well. its cloud-related investment would rise.
until mid-2024. Economists polled by be only 0.9 per cent higher than in the fifth straight month. “For households on a floating rate Microsoft said AI-related demand
Reuters forecast that the UK economy same period last year, according to the Recent data on inflation and retail mortgage, another rate rise just before delivered an unexpected boost to cloud
shrank 0.1 per cent in the third quarter bank’s projections. sales have put pressure on the RBA to Christmas would further tighten budg- growth in the most recent quarter.
compared with the previous three “UK economic growth is slowing,” the take a more hawkish stance. Even the ets. And it would also send a clear signal Alphabet and Amazon were vaguer in
months. They also expect a 0.1 per cent BoE said. “Some of this slowing is likely IMF has waded in, saying that govern- that the tightening cycle is not necessar- their earnings reports about the impact
month-on-month drop in September. to reflect the impact of the tightening in ment spending on infrastructure, sticky ily over,” Aird said. Nic Fildes of their AI investment.
Age is no barrier
Why older people are jumping
on the start-up bandwagon
Z WORK & CAREERS
How to hire
the best for less { Workplace diversity:
class mobility is needed }
CEOs from the working class paid less than affluent peers
Estimated class pay gap* (£’000)
CEOs
Finance managers
Management consultants
Solicitors
Accountants
Academics
Police/fire/army
IT
Doctors
Social workers/welfare
Teachers
Engineers
-16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
Pilita Clark *The difference in pay between people in the same job who came from professional-managerial
backgrounds and those who have working class backgrounds
Business Life Source: The Social Mobility Foundation Note: 2022 data
I
Singing from the same hymn sheet is suffer a double disadvantage. They
Kenneth Andersson
one way to speed up interminable took 21 per cent longer to progress to
magine running a company that well as the non-cognitive abilities the researchers. Does it matter that it — typically by about 6.5 per cent — the meetings. But groupthink at senior senior roles compared with a 13 per cent
consistently attracts smart, skilled employers increasingly value: came from a country with a long following year. levels can be dangerous. The progress gap for men from similar
staff willing to work harder and perseverance, motivation, social skills. history of environmental action? You might say there is some justice complacency of the banking sector backgrounds.
longer for 15 per cent less than So what, if anything, does this mean Perhaps, though a 2021 survey by the in these firms paying a penalty, in the came crashing home during the 2008- Lack of talent and low productivity
what they could earn doing the for today’s business leaders? IBM Institute for Business Value form of higher wages, for being 2009 financial crisis. are not to blame, says Nik Miller, boss of
same job elsewhere. We already know that people are suggests the green wage gap exists well environmentally or socially harmful. Since then, UK ministers and the Bridge Group, a consultancy that
I’m talking about lawyers, more likely to accept lower wages for beyond Sweden. But there is also a darker side to the regulators have pushed companies to worked on both reports. A 2018 study
receptionists, HR employees and IT work they think is meaningful. It showed more than two-thirds of sustainability wage gap. improve diversity. Fairness aside, the of early career lawyers found more
workers. Jobs that exist in all sorts of The research that Krueger and his workers in nine nations including the It turns out staff in more sustainable aim is to reflect the wider society and state school-educated trainees received
companies across all sorts of sectors. colleagues have done suggests this US, China, Germany and Brazil were sectors work longer and more extreme cut risk while better understanding the highest performance ratings than
Sounds unlikely? Not if you believe includes environmentally meaningful more likely to take jobs with socially hours, often 50 or 60 a week. It is consumer needs. Campaigners have those who attended private school.
academics in Europe, who have work, and it puts a number on the and environmentally responsible possibly no accident, therefore, that focused on raising female and ethnic “Affinity bias” is often the culprit.
uncovered what they call the magnitude of the pay cuts. organisations — and nearly half would they also have more sick days and are minority representation on boards. Senior staff tend to help people in their
sustainability wage gap: notably lower But might the green wage gap be accept a lower salary to do so. more likely to end up in hospital. They have left class diversity own image to rise up the ranks. Project
salaries earned by people in more explained by something other than a So what exactly is an Still, I think the overall message here neglected. Socio-economic background allocation can be opaque. It may rely on
environmentally friendly firms. desire to save the planet? environmentally sustainable firm? is clear. Recruiting and keeping smart, is a greater block to career progression relationships made through alumni or
These employees earned between The research, yet to be published in Krueger and co used three measures: industrious staff is likely to be easier than gender and ethnicity, according to family networks.
9 per cent and 15 per cent less than a peer-reviewed journal, is based on an organisation’s greenhouse gas and cheaper, at least as far as wages are a recent study of nearly 150,000 Yet this is not well reported. The UK’s
similar workers doing the same job in highly detailed data from employers emissions; environmental scores from concerned, if a business is genuinely financial services staff for diversity Prudential Regulation Authority and
oil companies, mining groups or other and employees in Sweden, home to MSCI, the global index provider; and a environmentally sustainable. group Progress Together. Financial Conduct Authority are on a
less sustainable businesses, the Greta Thunberg and the flygskam, or survey of what people deemed to be an Pretending to be greener than you Similar research involving 16,500 drive to improve diversity in financial
researchers found. And interestingly, flight shame, anti-flying movement. environmentally sustainable industry. actually are, on the other hand, may be KPMG workers showed that staff from services firms.
the gap has widened since 2001. The richness of the data, which goes The sectors rated most sustainable in more fraught than you think. lower socio-economic backgrounds Proposals include requiring larger
“It is growing, which is consistent back to the 1990s, made it attractive to the survey included recycling, research A legal firm that, say, flaunts its took nearly a fifth longer to progress to firms to report on metrics such as
with the idea preferences for protecting and health. The least green included oil concern for the environment and the next level of seniority than affluent sexual orientation and religion.
the environment are strengthening “ Pretending your drillers, coal miners and carmakers. belongs to one of the ballooning peers. KPMG’s efforts to support other Reporting on socio-economic
over time,” says co-author Philipp company is greener Each of the three measures produced number of net zero lawyers’ groups will groups had paid off. Female or ethnic background would be only voluntary.
Krueger, professor of responsible the same finding: workers in firms with have a lot of disappointed insiders if it minority workers in general progressed There is a danger in diversity
finance at Geneva university. than it actually is may higher environmental scores, or lower also helps oil companies quash climate faster than the firm’s average. discussions that one metric is played off
The wage gap is also larger for be more fraught emissions, all earned lower wages. lawsuits. A firm taking on the climate The Progress Together study against another. But class divides must
workers with high cognitive skills, such Conversely, firms that suffered an lawsuits, on the other hand, may be showed that working-class women can not be left out of the debate.
as memory and problem solving, as than you think ” ESG scandal tended to increase wages enjoying precisely the opposite effect.
CROSSWORD
No 17,567 Set by BOBCAT
ACROSS
MARKET DATA
S&P 500 New York S&P/TSX COMP Toronto FTSE 100 London Xetra Dax Frankfurt Nikkei 225 Tokyo Kospi Seoul
4,360.45 19,820.22
15,197.40 31,949.89
4,258.19 15,070.22 31,237.94 2,403.60 2,368.34
19,034.81 7,451.54 7,417.73
Day 0.99% Month 3.11% Year 17.23% Day 0.99% Month 4.20% Year 3.01% Day -0.39% Month -0.88% Year 3.01% Day 0.30% Month 3.42% Year NaN% Day 1.10% Month 0.35% Year 15.50% Day 1.08% Month -3.92% Year 1.35%
Nasdaq Composite New York IPC Mexico City FTSE Eurofirst 300 Europe Ibex 35 Madrid Hang Seng Hong Kong FTSE Straits Times Singapore
13,448.19 51,812.54
13,219.83 50,732.69 9,293.90 17,664.12
1,750.83 1,759.15 9,157.70 3,155.10 3,143.66
17,213.87
Day 1.16% Month 2.99% Year 30.04% Day 4.07% Month 2.85% Year 3.15% Day 0.02% Month 0.59% Year 8.53% Day 0.36% Month 1.40% Year 18.11% Day 2.52% Month -0.65% Year 11.80% Day 1.98% Month -2.05% Year 0.06%
Dow Jones Industrial New York Bovespa São Paulo CAC 40 Paris FTSE MIB Milan Shanghai Composite Shanghai BSE Sensex Mumbai
34,082.24 28,674.83
118,108.68 3,107.32
33,119.57 6,998.25 7,052.08 3,030.80 65,226.04
113,419.04 27,490.81 64,363.78
Day 0.72% Month 3.28% Year 6.51% Day 2.66% Month 4.17% Year 1.07% Day -0.19% Month 0.72% Year 12.88% Day 0.69% Month 4.34% Year 26.29% Day 0.71% Month -2.56% Year 0.91% Day 0.44% Month -2.25% Year 5.65%
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16 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 6 November 2023
B
you find that in the angel investor com-
munity but I think that is a potential
ernie Marcus launched bias in the system.”
Home Depot when he was 50. Eileen Burbidge, partner of early-
Donald Fisher had recently stage technology fund Passion Capital,
celebrated his 41st birthday says investors believe younger people
when he co-founded Gap with are more willing to take lower salaries
his 38-year-old wife. And though until a venture is profitable, and better
Steve Jobs was 21 when he unveiled able to handle failures. “Conventional
Apple’s earliest technology, it was not wisdom would say that once someone
until his fifties that he launched the has responsibilities such as a mortgage,
iPhone, transforming the company into partner or children, they might be less
one of the world’s most valuable. likely to take a leap of faith.”
When it comes to creating successful The complications of mid-life have
businesses, it pays to have a few grey proved challenging for Laura Harnett,
hairs. And, in the past decade, the trend who set up cleaning brand Seep when
for older people to create and run thriv- she was 42, after 20 years in consulting
ing ventures has accelerated. and senior executive roles at the depart-
Since 2020, the percentage of busi- ment store chain Selfridges. Three years
nesses founded by people aged 55 later, the company generates an annual
to 64 has increased in the US, the UK, £1mn in revenue, employs five people
France and Germany, according to the and is stocked by outlets such as Whole-
Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, an foods and Amazon. But Hartnett admits
annual measure of start-up activity. she struggles to juggle family responsi-
Founders aged 45-plus now account for Kay Miller was experience fortified our passion and our Yet older people to defy stereotypes — earlier. But his roles in investment and bilities with building the business.
between a quarter and a third of all new a headteacher knowledge,” she says. more so since the Covid-19 pandemic. as a chief financial officer proved indis- While older founders have more to
entrepreneurial activity. before she set up It also helped in times of adversity. “Making people work from home for pensable to the new venture. Without it, lose, there is evidence their risk is more
“The rise in the number of older a business Den Kit has grown to a company with long periods left many wondering he says, the pair may not have made likely to pay off. According to the 2018
entrepreneurs is about the growth in the selling outdoor revenue of £1mn and is stocked by big whether they might as well set up in vital business decisions — such as asking NBER study, a 50-year-old entrepre-
asset rich in this age group,” says activity kits for retailers. But it has battled rising costs, business,” says Hart. customers online to pay ahead of orders neur was almost twice as likely to have a
Mark Hart, deputy director of the children. Below: and sales have fallen as inflation has Husband and wife Ricardo and being commissioned, rather than look- runaway success as a 30-year-old. Expe-
Enterprise Research Centre at Aston Bernie Marcus, squeezed consumer spending. Since the Marina Larroudé founded their epony- ing only to investors for capital. rience in an industry was one of the best
University and GEM report author. who founded pandemic, the workforce of 14 has more mous New York-based shoe brand aged “We got friends and family to stump indicators of whether a person would
He sees “no lack of aspiration” among Home Depot at than halved. “We have fumbled through 42 and 41 respectively, after being up about $700,000, but that would not create a high-growth business, it found.
older founders. Many have enjoyed the age of 50 with pure determination,” Miller says. laid off from their jobs in finance and have been enough to get to where we are “People conflate the fact that some-
successful careers, with experience in Andrew Fox/FT The business was, and remains, profita- fashion in early 2020. Having emigrated now,” he says. “If we were younger, we ‘People one has a successful idea and they are
areas such as fundraising, and have ble. “It is that backing yourself, proba- to the US from Brazil, they were stuck might have gone out to raise several young,” says Jones, co-author of the
enough contacts to source seed backers bly because you have . . . been in diffi- inside with two young children and a million from investors and regretted it.” conflate report. “Some people are just good at
and hire dynamic founding teams. cult situations before.” long way from home. What they did According to GEM, Britain has that entrepreneurship, even when they are
When Kay Miller quit her job as a Older founders do face additional have, however, were thick contacts recorded the biggest jump in older young. What we found was that they
primary school headteacher at 57 to obstacles. Insiders say a prevailing books to source backers and customers. founders since the pandemic, with the someone also get better with age.”
build the Den Kit Company, selling out- mood among venture capitalists, partic- By May 2020 they had decided to percentage of businesses started by Hartnett felt she was “becoming
door activity sets for children, she drew ularly in tech, is that entrepreneurship launch Larroudé. By June they had their those aged 45 to 64 increasing from 25
has a a dinosaur” in her senior role at
on decades of experience seeing her own ability peaks in a person’s thirties. first set of samples for potential buyers. per cent in 2020 to 33 per cent last year. successful Selfridges. Her husband qualified as a
pupils benefit from outside play. “There’s this idea that young people are Ricardo, who had been an analyst at The average age of directors in British surgeon, so she was no longer the
Years of leadership gave her confi- just more likely to have more valuable Lehman Brothers and held senior roles tech start-ups is 40, according to private idea [with family’s main breadwinner. And
dence after she started the company as a
side hustle with a friend. “We’d been
ideas,” Benjamin Jones, strategy prof-
essor at Northwestern University’s
at Apollo Global Management and
Anheuser-Busch InBev, says he would
company data provider Beauhurst.
However, Sherry Coutu, a 59-year-old
being] a breast cancer scare gave her a fresh
perspective on life and its possibilities.
teachers and mothers and that life Kellogg School of Management, says. have liked to have started a business entrepreneur and angel investor based young’ “I just lost the fear,” she says.
Monday 6 November 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 17
The
Henry Mance
Interview
Charlie Bibby/FT
O
ut of centuries of Jewish Einstein, Hannah Arendt and other really grabs me. I feel much closer to Centre for Antiracist Research raised erals and leftists need to join together.” an intellectual “who walked the walk”:
suffering have come two leading Jewish figures wrote to the New people from completely different back- $55mn but has now been criticised for Even so, the promise of universalism supporting the civil rights movement
contrasting philosophical York Times, criticising a future Israeli grounds who share my values than I do low academic output and management can feel naive at a time of war. “You say and refugees, and standing up to McCa-
impulses. One focuses on prime minister’s party as “fascist”. By to a whole bunch of Israelis.” She issues. “I’ve got to confess, sometimes it’s naive. Every other alternative is dis- rthyism.
the need for the Jewish contrast, “calling the Israeli far right fas- returned to Berlin in 2000. schadenfreude is pleasant,” she laughs astrous. The security concept of the How would Einstein deal with events
people to protect themselves against cist today would not just bring accusa- Neiman notes that figures on the far about the latter. She returns to what she state of Israel for most of its 75 years, today? “Sometimes you’re glad for cer-
inevitable attacks. It is supported by the tions of antisemitism, it would carry a right — the Alternative for Germany sees as urgent: proto-fascism in India, and particularly of Benjamin Netan- tain people that they died before they
biblical verses that urge Jews to remem- professional death sentence,” says Nei- party (AfD), Viktor Orbán in Hungary, Russia, Israel and the US. “While liber- yahu, just fell apart . . . All kinds of could see certain developments. He
ber the Amalekites, the tribe who once man. and Steve Bannon in the US — often als and leftists are arguing about pro- things have been seen as naive in the would see this as a disaster for everyone,
killed their ancestors. It is epitomised To many Germans, criticism of Israel strongly embrace Israel. She argues it nouns and cultural appropriation, the past.” Her style of philosophy is engaged and the result of a tribalism that he just
by the nationalism of Benjamin Netan- clashes with the paramount importance works as a cover: “as long as we support right share strategies . . . As in 1932, lib- with the world. Einstein, she notes, was didn’t share.”
yahu. given to remembering the Holocaust. To the state of Israel, we can’t be Nazis, but
The second emphasises Jews’ respon- many Jews today, universalism itself we can be as racist as we want to any-
sibility to other oppressed peoples. This feels hollow, when parts of the left have body else.”
was the tradition Susan Neiman shown little compassion for Jews’ own In the current war, European Com-
imbibed as a child in 1960s Georgia. She suffering. mission president Ursula von der Leyen
attended an Atlanta synagogue whose “ I ’m s c a r e d a b o u t r i s i n g has supported Israel’s government
rabbi supported Martin Luther King. antisemitism,” says Neiman. “But I more strongly than member states
When she was three, it was bombed, don’t think the way to solve the problem agreed. For Neiman, Von der Leyen rep-
most likely by white supremacists. She is to become more anti-Muslim. That is resents “a very mainstream German
recited Passover verses with her one direction that people are going in, approach: the way not to be a Nazi, and
mother, remembering those that urged particularly in Germany.” not to have inherited your parents’ or
Jews not to oppress strangers because Neiman is best known for her work on grandparents’ guilt, is to say ‘Israel,
they were once “strangers in the land of historical memory. In 2019 she wrote right or wrong’”.
Egypt”. “That was the central experi- Learning from the Germans, which Other voices are muffled. After the
ence of growing up — if you’re a Jew, you praised the country’s coming to terms Hamas attacks on October 7, the Frank-
care about social justice and the civil with its Nazi history. It documented furt Book Fair postponed a ceremony
rights movement.” how, after the second world war, (West) for the novelist Adania Shibli, seemingly
Now an outspoken philosopher, Nei- Germans saw themselves as victims, because she is Palestinian and her
man wants to reclaim Jewish universal- rather than accepting responsibility. award-winning novel includes abuse by
ism as a radical act. Israel’s war with From the 1980s, a new mindset took Israeli soldiers in 1949. Many pro-Pales-
Hamas has pushed the world to pick hold. Germany became “the first nation tinian demonstrations have been
sides. “People have, differently in so ever that put its crimes in the centre of banned in Germany, as in France, partly
many places across the world, become its national narrative”. Neiman con-
so tribalist. I hate the words pro-Israel trasted its state-backed self-criticism
and pro-Palestinian: they make it look with the US and UK’s reluctance to con-
‘I don’t think the way to
as if we’re talking about a football front their respective racist and colonial solve the problem is
match. I’m pro-peace.” pasts. Some said she overestimated the
She has the advantage of being able to sincerity of Germans’ contrition. to become more
invoke Albert Einstein. For 23 years, she Just as Learning from the Germans was anti-Muslim’
has led the Einstein Forum in Potsdam, sparking debate, Neiman started to
Germany, a research institute based at doubt its thesis. Germany’s historical
his one-time summer home. “Einstein memory came with a caveat. “The Ger- because of the risk of antisemitic
was a total universalist Jew . . . We do mans have decided ‘we are the perpetra- incidents and public disorder.
tor nation’, and the Jews are the victim Neiman is not impervious to that. She
nation. That leads to this statement that gave one of her twin daughters a
‘If peaceful means are ‘we stand for Israel on every occasion, Hebrew name; the other an Arabic
so vilified . . . what do right or wrong, and any criticism of name. Today, in their early thirties, both
Israeli politics quickly will veer into twins are being confronted about the
you expect young antisemitism, therefore we will only say war — by opposing sides. “This sense of
people to do?’ the mildest things’ . . . The United
States is the most powerful ally of the
hope that one could still have in the
early nineties is now so much in doubt.”
state of Israel, but Germany is the sec- She herself lives in Berlin near a
care about his politics and his biography ond.” neighbourhood with a large Muslim
because that’s why he became a cultural For Neiman, this crushed free speech. population. Friends have warned her
icon. The second half of his life, he spent After the German parliament declared not to go out at night, or even at all. “I
more time as a public intellectual than in 2019 that the Boycott, Divestment don’t know whether to be afraid or not.
he did working on physics.” and Sanctions (BDS) campaign against But I’m also worried about my Muslim
Einstein became convinced of the Israel was antisemitic, she and the heads neighbours and colleagues.”
need for a Jewish national home, but he of other cultural organisations wrote a Moreover, she worries that the Ger-
feared the cost if it came without peace. letter of objection. man right “is using what’s going on in
“Should we be unable to find a way to “I don’t support BDS, but I ask myself: the Middle East to raise new demands
honest co-operation and honest pacts BDS was formed as an alternative to ter- that we shouldn’t allow immigration,”
with the Arabs, then we have learned rorism, if peaceful means are so vilified even though official data shows 80 per
absolutely nothing from our 2,000 years and have no impact, what do you expect cent of antisemitic incidents in Ger-
of suffering and will deserve our fate,” young people who have grown up in the many are committed by rightwingers.
he warned in 1929. occupation their entire lives to do?” Neiman’s struggle is not just with the
Today Neiman echoes Einstein’s con- It turned into her “first real shit- right. In her book Left Is Not Woke, pub-
cerns. “[Netanyahu’s] policies are creat- storm”. The organisations were accused lished this year, she chastises the left for
ing anger and frustration all over the of antisemitism. A large project that she abandoning Enlightenment ideals.
world, they will rebound on Jews, see had been working on for two years “was Wokeness, she argues, runs counter to
Dagestan [where an antisemitic mob suddenly cancelled”. the Enlightenment’s commitment to
stormed an airport].” The “carpet The experience continued Neiman’s universalism and justice and its belief in
bombing . . . of Gaza is not in Israeli ambivalent relationship with Germany. progress. It is defined by reducing peo-
interests, even if you just care about She first lived in Berlin for six years in ple to the most marginalised parts of
Jewish lives.” the 1980s, experiencing a place where their identity, whereas, for Neiman, “it’s
She strives to see the mistreatment of being Jewish was so rare and where the way less important to me that I’m a Jew
Jews and non-Jews through the same Holocaust was “just in your face all the than I’m a universalist.”
eyes. “Discrimination and oppression of time . . . I didn’t think it was a place Black Lives Matter “started as a very
any group of people on the basis of their where one could raise a normal Jewish universalist movement”, but ended up
ethnic heritage is racism.” She con- child, and I left, mostly for that reason.” “a tribalist movement about ‘more
demns Hamas’s “pogrom” against She spent the 1990s in the US and power for our people’”.
Israeli Jews and the ensuing “pogroms” Israel. In Tel Aviv, she hoped to contrib- Neiman doesn’t shy from arguments.
against Palestinians in the occupied ute to the peace process, but even in the Sucking on a cigarette, she attacks her
West Bank. period’s relative optimism, she felt “a academic opponents including Steven
Yet a strong universalist commitment nationalist undercurrent. I realised that Pinker, the evolutionary psychologist,
faces a difficult context. In 1948, there’s no form of nationalism that and Ibram X. Kendi, the author whose
18 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 6 November 2023
ARTS
A
poster-painter up a ladder
daubs a likeness of a Bolly-
wood heroine on a cinema
facade, oblivious to a riot-
ous mob, cudgels raised,
stripping a man below the waist to
determine his religion. The chillingly
counterpointed scenes, in blood reds
and livid greens, are in “City for Sale”, a
large-scale oil painting by the Indian
artist Gulammohammed Sheikh. Made
in Baroda, Gujarat, in the early 1980s as
pogroms against Muslims engulfed his
home state, the artist’s anguished
wake-up call has hung largely unseen in
a backroom of the Victoria and Albert
Museum in London until now.
The monumental painting is among
the surprising works on show in Beyond
the Page: South Asian Miniature Painting
and Britain, 1600 to Now, at MK Gallery
in Milton Keynes until January 28 (then
at The Box in Plymouth). Curated by
Hammad Nasar and Anthony Spira, this
rare exhibition juxtaposes exquisite tra-
ditional miniatures from sacred and
Chronicle of empire, power and art
secular texts (some so light-sensitive
they can be shown only once every 10 epic the Hamzanama. Yet the hot colour- in the catalogue, as the artist, in his own from “The delivery of presents for Mughal portraits superimposed with
years) with modern and contemporary fields of Hodgkin’s small oil-on-wood words, discovered “treasure after treas- Prince Dara-Shikoh’s Wedding” (c1640) the artist’s passport photo. Karkhana
works they inspired, from sculpture to abstract paintings rather invite compar- ure”. His large urban canvas might seem are poignantly detached from their gifts. (2003), a collaborative series of 12 small
film and installation. ison with Rajput miniatures placed to owe nothing to the tiny, intricate Artistic homage often proves ambiva- paintings, was inspired by, and named
A complex story of art, imperial nearby: “Radha and Krishna” landscapes and interiors on the hand- lent. Rashid Rana’s irreverent “I Love after, the Mughal workshops. Qureshi
power and cross-cultural encounters (c1730-35), attributed to Manaku, with made paper known as wasli. Yet their Miniatures” (2002) appears to be a pixi- and five other Lahore alumni each
emerges through 180 works, tracing beetle-wing cases glued on as emeralds. multiple scenes in a flat plane, with lated portrait of a Mughal emperor, but added elements before couriering the
how a courtly tradition that flowered in In the catalogue essay Emily Han- frames that draw in the viewer and ele- is a digital composite of advertising bill- works on around the diaspora. Recur-
Mughal, Rajput and Deccani royal nam, adviser to the exhibition, writes ments that spill out of borders, pose boards — mocking the viewer’s expecta- ring images of stamps and maps reflect
workshops before the 1700s still capti- that there are “tens of thousands” of beguiling alternatives to Renaissance tions of both work and artist. Repurpos- anxiety about a post-9/11 world where
vates and challenges cutting-edge art- such works in public collections in Brit- fixed-point perspective. ing princely art, Qureshi’s painting “The travellers are harassed at frontiers.
ists (of various heritages) today. ain. The show’s radical premise is that As Sheikh noted, such art, stemming Artist’s Younger Brother” (1995) por- The Order of Things, a section that
The first of five thematic sections south Asian miniature painting is an from a world in flux, demands of the trays his sibling in profile in retro mauve shows the work of Company School nat-
begins with sumptuous folios from the “important but overlooked area of Brit- viewer an “active participation rather uralists alongside ironic rejoinders, has
Padshahnama (1656-7), its processional ish art history”. While East India “Com- than cool contemplation”. By contrast, the fruit of another collaboration. In The
elephants splendid in watercolour and pany School” artists pandered to Euro- Akhlaq was more fascinated by minia-
A courtly tradition that Gardens of England (2017-23), David
metallic paint. This Mughal chronicle pean tastes, the mass export of highly tures’ formal aspects, deconstructing flowered before the Alesworth, a British artist who lived in
was gifted to King George III as British portable historic works — as diplomatic them in acrylic paintings such as “Unti- Pakistan, worked with Shakila Haider, a
power waxed in India. Some folios are gifts and purchases or as plunder — tled (2)” (1990): a gestural blue horse 1700s still captivates and Lahore-based miniaturist, to reverse
by signed artists such as Murar, who
portrayed himself in a corner. The
nourished European art yet sundered
generations from a vital inheritance.
viewed through a window frame.
Akhlaq created a seminal department
challenges cutting-edge the coldly classificatory gaze. Among
watercolours based on Alesworth’s pho-
Dutch artist Willem Schellinks copied Both Sheikh and Pakistani artist Top: section of Nusra Latif Qureshi’s in 1985 at the National College of Arts in artists today tographs are surreally clinical images of
another album (also studied by Rem- Zahoor ul Akhlaq studied at the Royal ‘Did You Come Here to Find Lahore (founded by Rudyard Kipling’s “exotic” flora in Milton Keynes.
brandt) for his drawing “Shah Jahan College of Art in the 1960s, and were History?’ (2009). Above: ‘Prince father) that still nurtures stellar alumni. flairs. Yet the Liverpool-based Singh Similarly, the ethnographic floating
hawking” (c1657-60). William Morris astounded by the V&A’s originals after Khurram on his return from the Among those on show is Imran Qureshi, Twins’ “past-modern” style both heads of “Forty-one portraits” (c1780-
and the avid Indian miniature collector muted reproductions at home. Sheikh’s Deccan’ (c1636) by Abdul Hamid globally renowned for his large-scale adheres to and expands tradition. In 1800), made in West Bengal, are subtly
Howard Hodgkin hymned the Persian work “changed in London”, Nasar writes Lahori — Royal Collection Trust installations. The red splatter and gold “Because You’re Worth It? II” (2022), a subverted in Ali Kazim’s tenderly
leaf of his painting “Blessings Upon the digital fabric lightbox that impugns con- observant Children of Faith (2023) series,
Land of My Love” (2011) reference both sumerism and ecological disaster, death and Abbas’s Every Color (2022): tiny por-
terrorist violence and traditional hunt- rides a composite elephant made of traits of transgender Lahorites painted
ing scenes — notably “Wild animals are brand logos. on silk. Appearing to peep through the
let loose” (c1840), with its blood-red, The most compelling section com- cloth, these faces force the viewer up
almost floral spray. bines portraiture with politics in the close in an act of intimacy and recogni-
In the intimately panoramic “The wake of the September 11 attacks. Nusra tion that speaks volumes about the min-
Scroll” (1989-90) by New York-based Latif Qureshi’s “Did You Come Here to iature’s enduring power.
Shahzia Sikander, another Lahore Find History?” (2009), a nine-metre
alumna, a woman in white wafts scroll of digital prints, is a disturbing, To January 28, mkgallery.org. In Plymouth
through interiors. Such feminist fragmented palimpsest of Venetian and February 17-June 2, theboxplymouth.com
reclaiming echoes throughout the show.
In Hamra Abbas’s resin sculpture “Les- ‘Lessons on
sons on Love” (2007-8), a moustachioed Love’ (2007) by
prince makes acrobatic love while Hamra Abbas
Rob Harrie
grasping a hunting rifle — an absurdist
lampooning of martial values and
courtly erotica.
Abanindranath Tagore pioneered the
neo-miniaturist “Bengal School” in the
1900s, whose anti-colonial thrust also
finds echoes. Sikander’s “The Explosion
of the Company Man” (2006) defaces a
colonial officer in a diptych resembling
an outsize album. Abbas’s four-panel
installation “All Rights Reserved”
(2004) raises ironic questions about
ownership and access with reference to
King of the World, a selective 1997 tour of
the Padshahnama (now owned by King
Charles III). In her take, the bearers
T
this time, Wakefield was living in Texas today’s fractious discourse.
and making a living on the speaking Also like Ronson, who makes a point
wenty-five years ago, in circuit through which he attracted an of trying to understand his subjects
advance of a paper being ever more devoted following. rather than pass judgment, Mostrous
published in the medical Many listeners will know Mostrous takes an empathetic approach towards
journal The Lancet, a panel from Sweet Bobby, the hit true-crime Wakefield’s supporters, particularly the
of researchers including series about catfishing, and he brings parents of autistic children, many of
gastroenterologist Andrew Wakefield the same rigour and storytelling flair to whom were desperate for an
gave a press conference at London’s this story of a man who made a career explanation. He is less sympathetic,
Royal Free Hospital at which they raised though certainly curious, about
the possibility that the MMR (measles, Wakefield, who thrives on criticism; the
mumps and rubella) vaccine was linked more his reputation takes a beating, the
to autism. Wakefield’s advice was that more he casts himself as a victim of a
parents should give children the three conspiracy between the media, big
vaccines separately. Stories soon began pharma and the medical establishment.
appearing in the press featuring parents A chill runs down the spine as
who claimed their children had been Mostrous reveals how Wakefield, once a
damaged by the MMR jab. Vaccination fringe figure, not only won over
rates started to drop and measles cases celebrities including Jim Carrey, Robert
rose. For Wakefield, it was the start of a De Niro and Elle Macpherson (whom he
new phase in his career as a prominent briefly dated) regarding concerns about
figure in the anti-vax movement. vaccinations, but found a fan in former
In Dr Anti-Vax, a three-part podcast US president Donald Trump, who
from Tortoise Media, the journalist invited him to one of his inauguration
Alexi Mostrous tells of the rise of balls. Not for nothing does Mostrous tell
Wakefield and his role in a broader us at the start: “If the anti-vax
movement against vaccines which, movement is burning out of control, this
amplified by social media and guy is the original fire-starter.”
politicians trying to foster anti- Andrew Wakefield talks to reporters
establishment credentials, reached at the General Medical Council, 2010 tortoisemedia.com/audio/the-fall
Monday 6 November 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 19
Brussels is trying to devise a new competitiveness strategy amid fears of being left behind by the US and
China. Fixing the bloc’s longstanding economic problems will need unprecedented co-operation.
By Henry Foy and Ian Johnston
The FT View
The great American spending spree
the gloomy economic backdrop — 18 the US Federal Reserve’s tightening. The Though the hangover. The latest confidence data
Pay growth, savings and months of high inflation, rising interest lowest paid Americans have experi- jobs market showed that while buying plans for
rates and plenty of uncertainty. enced the strongest pay growth too. items such as cars, homes and appli-
‘fomo’ help the US economy What explains the robustness? Bank Many have also tapped into savings
is cooling,
ances had fallen, as expected with high
defy a gloomy backdrop of America thinks a phenomenon that it accumulated during the pandemic, employment borrowing costs, vacation intentions
calls “funflation” is responsible. It notes which were bolstered by government and wages have were at their highest since 2020.
As the pumpkins, sweet-wrappers and a greater willingness to spend on live stimulus checks. This has driven stellar held up better Generational preferences are a factor.
ghostly garbs are cleared away, forecast- entertainment and experiences, stem- spending on electronics, furniture and than expected A recent survey by Experian, a credit
ers expect American Halloween spend- ming from pent-up demand, savings home equipment since 2020. Mean- despite the scoring company, found that around 60
ing bills to have broken records. The and changing consumer preferences. while, the prevalence of long-term per cent of young Americans — the so-
average shopper was projected to spend Indeed, over the summer, the dual fixed-rate mortgages has sheltered Federal called Gen Z and Millennials — would
$108 on sweets, costumes and decora- release of movies Barbie and Oppenhe- homeowners from higher rates. Reserve’s prefer to spend money on “life experi-
tions during this trick-or-treating season imer, dubbed “Barbenheimer”, became There are signs of strain. Consumer tightening ences” now rather than save. As they
— with total expenditure set to exceed one of the biggest openings on record, confidence has dipped, partly on the age, they will exert a greater influence
$12bn. But even before the October 31 despite scepticism over the cinema back of higher gasoline prices. Credit on spending patterns.
festivities, it has been clear that the US industry’s prospects following Covid-19. card delinquency rates are rising, lock- Yet, targeted social media marketing,
consumer is experiencing a sugar rush. Morgan Stanley estimated that Barben- down savings are being drained, and the rapid growth in celebrity fan bases via
America’s economy grew at a 4.9 per heimer and concert tours by Taylor student loan repayments are back, after apps such as TikTok, and the faster
cent annualised rate in the third quar- Swift and Beyoncé added $8.5bn to the a three-year pause. Higher interest rates online transmission of the “fomo” effect
ter; the fastest since 2021. With con- US economy in the third quarter. will bite more in the coming months and suggests that demand for experiences —
sumer spending accounting for two- But consumer resilience comes down squeeze spending on goods, and services including travel, concerts and dining out
thirds of the economy, much of the to more than the “fear of missing out” — which account for the bulk of per- — could be more intergenerational and
jump is down to a surprise shopping on the buzz surrounding box office sonal consumption. price inelastic than economists expect. If
spree. Retail sales registered their sixth- events. Though the jobs market is now Beyond the inevitable Fed-induced that is indeed the case, the Fed will need
straight month of growth in September. cooling, employment and wages have economic slowdown, “funflation” could to add another one to the list of potential
ft.com/opinion The resilience of the US consumer defies held up better than expected, despite prove to be more than just a pandemic long-term inflationary pressures.
Y
technology to release agriculture from entrenching the power of Narendra deserves to RIP” (Markets Insight, partnership.
its subsistence stranglehold. African Modi and his Bharatiya Janata party October 25). A second study of mine also showed
ou could call it “the cult farmers, she says, typically cultivate (BJP). He challenges the narrative that says that this increase in female non-equity
of the small”, the idea less than two hectares and produce In reality, the ruling government in that the incorporation of partners was not mirrored in the hiring
that small enterprises and gross value added of about $2,000, New Delhi is anything but a environmental, social and governance of new female associates, which often
smallholder farmers are one-fiftieth of the average American centralising autocracy. The BJP has thinking into an investment portfolio lagged behind, and the research
the backbone of poor farmer. The “cult of the smallholder witnessed an erosion in its control of may increase returns without suggested that firms, in signalling their
economies, the key to social resilience farmer”, she says, is as damaging as state governments over the past five materially elevating risk. In short, he values to clients, may substitute pro
and the best hope for eliminating pov- the cult of the micro-entrepreneur. years. At its peak in March 2018, the writes that “if an asset is less risky, it bono work or racial diversity for
erty. You see it in the emphasis on China’s economic miracle was built BJP and its allies were governing 21 should have lower expected returns”. gender diversity.
microloans, small businesses and on moving unproductive farmers into Indian states, encompassing 70 per While this is conventional wisdom it is So the cautious counsel in evaluating
funding community projects. factories. Research by the African cent of India’s population and more not always true. law firms’ claim of progress in
These interventions are all very Centre for Economic Transformation, than three-quarters of its area. Since To take a contemporary example: promoting more women to partners is
well. Safety nets, telephone banking an Accra-based think-tank, shows then, Modi’s coalition has experienced investors in UK gilts or US Treasuries akin to the advice law firms often
and rural roads can help the income how African economies have failed to a cavalcade of electoral defeats, most Citroën 2CV releases tiny amounts are today benefiting from much higher provide to clients: pay close attention
prospects of the very poorest. By some do this. Many not only score poorly recently in Karnataka, home to the of rubber dust compared with EVs returns than were available a year ago. to the fine print.
estimates, small and medium enter- but are going backwards. Acet’s meas- tech metropolis of Bengaluru. Has risk increased concomitantly? Well Lionel Paolella
prises account for 80 per cent of ure of economic diversity fell by The BJP alliance is now in power in certainly the rating agencies do not Associate Professor, Judge Business School
Africa’s economic output. But the cult almost 6 points between 2000 and only 16 states, covering less than half flexibility to prevent the inappropriate seem to think so. University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
of the small needs a corrective. Africa 2020 while export competitiveness the country’s population and land public capital allocation we have Separately the article propounds a
needs to think big. failed to rise over that period from a mass. The peaceful transfer of power, witnessed for too long. dubious “everything is nothing” Let’s needle the professor
In cities across the continent, a dismal 13.8. On average the top five the cardinal feature of a democracy, is Glenn Nielsen argument. “The truth is that ESG
“micro-entrepreneur”, as the develop- exports of African countries account alive and well in Modi’s India. Copenhagen, Denmark scores today measure everything — on his cavalier claims
ment jargon has it, might just be the for a dangerously concentrated 70 per This is far from the rhetorical consequently they measure nothing,” Professor Willy Shih (“What the
owner of a tanning works, a metal- cent of the total. sophistry of Professor Kaul’s assertions Hold dementia at bay, the he says. Or again, he writes that “as for ubiquitous syringe tells us about US
bashing business or a tile-making fac- Successful Asian and Latin American of a majoritarian political project G(overnance), its presence in ESG has supply chains”, Opinion, October 31)
tory. More likely she is a woman dodg- economies built complex industrial subverting the nation’s democratic Marshall McLuhan way always been puzzling, since it replaces says he is willing to spend a dime (10
networks. They were sometimes linked values. Your “Glimmers of hope in tackling the original notion of corporate cents) more on every medical syringe
to raw materials like Chilean copper or Nathan Punwani dementia” editorial (FT View, governance, where managers are to maintain a domestic US supply of
If the antidote is Malaysian palm oil, but often to an edu-
cated workforce, reliable infrastruc-
Scottsdale, AZ, US November 1) is more than a glimmer.
An easy way to avoid the onset of
accountable to shareholders, with one
where managers are accountable to all
the product. One would think it passing
strange for a Harvard professor of
big and complex, ture and deep pools of savings. A radical idea for keeping horrible brain cells decline — a stakeholders, effectively making them management to be so cavalier with the
the African continent In Africa, Lesotho and Mauritius condition that shows up as a slowing accountable to none of them.” multiplicative effect of very large
developed competitive textile indus- a lid on public debt recall of word sounds from brain stores This viewpoint is at best debatable numbers. For his suggestion would
is not doing well tries, Ethiopia established a shoe and Gita Gopinath’s opinion piece on how — is literally in front of our eyes. That is and at worst meaningless. increase US healthcare costs by $1mn
apparel industry based on home-pro- fiscal policy in many countries is on an to read briskly, out loud, and for some May I as an alternative quote Bruce each day ($3.65bn in a decade), with no
ing traffic with a tray on her head hawk- duced leather and Benin is trying to unsustainable path (Opinion, October hours each day. Springsteen, recalling how the “Boss” appreciable improvement in health
ing food to a tiny four-wheel-drive- transform raw cashew nuts into items 27) suggests a minimum corporate tax Many years ago I read in Canadian once introduced a live performance of outcomes. At this price it would appear
owning elite. Or a man with a that can go on a supermarket shelf. rate and a more efficient wealth tax is philosopher Marshall McLuhan’s The “Born to Run”: “Remember that in the that a national emergency stockpile
“shoeshine business” consisting of a But such efforts are too few. the way to achieve more balanced Gutenberg Galaxy book that medieval end nobody wins unless everybody would be a far cheaper alternative. A
rag, a broken box and half a tin of shoe If the antidote to small is big and public finances. medics claimed that, to enhance blood wins.” one year supply would cost roughly
polish. The region’s cities are full of peo- complex, the continent is not doing It is a fact that Switzerland, as a circulation to and from our hearts, Simon Rostron $550mn, but since stocks would be
ple with no formal jobs, hustling for a well. There is not a single African com- confederation, is governed in a reading out loud was as good as Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK rotated into the market to avoid
living. They are survivors who work pany in the world’s Fortune 500. Still, decentralised way with internal walking. I experimented. I put a little expiration, after the initial outlay the
long hours scrabbling together a pit- there are bigger businesses than meet competition, including in areas such as pulsimeter on a fingertip and, sure Headline shocker real cost would be paying for the
tance. If Africa’s future depends on the eye, many family-owned. McKin- taxation. Despite this, there is a enough, immediately up went my pulse storage.
their labour, then Africa is in trouble. sey listed 400 African companies with significant difference in the tax rate by 20 per cent as I read out loud. I am a long-term subscriber and Guy Wroble
No amount of access to finance is going annual revenue above $1bn in 2018. structure between the cantons in The brisker I read, the higher it went. admirer of the FT’s journalism. This is Denver, CO, US
to turn such “enterprises” into the Yasmin Kumi’s African Foresight Switzerland, and Switzerland is, Furthermore, in accordance with why I was shocked to see the headline,
building blocks of a modern economy. Group has a database of 2,000 compa- despite this, an exceptionally McLuhan’s “the medium is the “Police Shoot Veiled Woman in Paris Deux Chevaux owner’s
Paul Collier, author of The Bottom Bil- nies with revenue of $20mn-$100mn. successful country on several message”, it will happen independently Train Station” (Report, FT.com,
lion, says of the transformative effect of More are needed. So is aggressive important and decisive measures. of what we are reading and whether October 31). Ulez refund plea
complex businesses: “Companies per- competition law to ensure they do not It is also a fact that Norway recently the words are on screens or pages. It This headline implied the woman My 602cc Citroën 2CV is rightly
form a productivity miracle by organis- rest on their laurels or gouge custom- increased its wealth tax and several precludes and slows brain was shot because she was wearing a penalised under London’s ultra-low
ing workers to reap gains from scale ers. Policies required to facilitate job- wealthy Norwegians as a consequence deterioration of the precise sort that veil and the police action was somehow emission zone rules for having a
and specialisation.” The roadside hus- creating businesses are not the normal decided to leave Norway. shows up as faulty recall from cells that racially motivated. primitive carburettor, which costs me
tler is neither specialised nor produc- development fare. They involve tasks My point is that every economic store word sounds. There is nothing in the story that £12.50 every time I drive it. But the car
tive. To romanticise such an atomised like rationalising electricity supply, decision has consequences that need to Medics recommend that we maintain follows that suggests she was shot only weighs 560kg and has very skinny
workforce is to accept poverty in perpe- deepening capital markets, reducing be carefully evaluated by asking “and social interaction to preclude because she is wearing a veil or that the tyres. So reading the guest column by
tuity. If many urban jobs are so unpro- capital costs through establishment of then what”. Remedies may differ from dementia. That works by getting us to veil is even important to the story, but the CEO of Emissions Analytics
ductive, perhaps people should stay in pension funds, channelling develop- country to country. What I would exercise the recall of words as we listen yet this is a main feature of the (“Forget Dieselgate — ‘tyregate’ is a
the countryside? That was the view of ment into large-scale businesses and suggest, instead of a one-size-fits-all and talk or sing. We can’t organise headline. bigger emissions scandal”, Opinion,
Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria’s former nurturing professionally run farms. solution, is that it should be social interaction 24/7. But we can get In fact, while the lead paragraph says October 31), I wondered does this
president, who told young people “to go A starting point may be jettisoning constitutionally determined that a that exercise by reading briskly, out the woman was shouting “jihadi mean I can get a refund due to the tiny
back to the farm”. romantic notions that smallholder sitting government was automatically loud, 24/7 to our heart’s content, slogans” — really they were threats, not amount of rubber dust I create, at least
But the life of most smallholders is farmers and micro-entrepreneurs are removed from power with a ban on including while sitting or lying in bed slogans — the fact that she told those compared to the dust from a toxic
less Thomas Hardy and more John the route out of poverty. They are not. holding public office for a given period when outdoors walking isn’t possible around her she had a bomb and they 2-tonne electric car that is “2,000
Steinbeck. Without irrigation, ferti- Their existence in large numbers is the thereafter if the public debt and the due to work, location, weather, road or were going to die is not revealed until times greater than the mass of particles
liser, modern seeds or tractors, pro- definition of poverty itself. annual deficit on the public finances other neighbourhood factors. the fifth paragraph! from a modern exhaust pipe”?
ductivity across the continent is dis- exceeded a certain level. Joseph Foyle Peter Schwartz Patrick Uden
mally low. The poorest farmers can’t david.pilling@ft.com It would create accountability and Dublin, Ireland London NW3, UK London NW1. UK
Monday 6 November 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 21
Opinion
A battle looms between world leaders and bond vigilantes The Kremlin’s
stance on Israel
MARKETS
tion spending splurges. But if the money
flows too freely, the newly alert vigilantes
where the deficit has nearly doubled
from its pre-pandemic trend to around
rate and showed fiscal restraint through
the pandemic. But many state leaders
tion and higher rates. Since then, the
vigilantes have targeted nations all over reveals problems
Ruchir
Sharma
will show up to spoil the fun, selling off
the nation’s bonds and currency. Many
governments, having run up massive
6 per cent of GDP, the largest deficit
among major developed countries.
South Africa is also at high risk. It has
have of late been engaging in a game of
competitive populism. If prime minister
Narendra Modi’s party suffers setbacks
the world. They helped force UK prime
minister Liz Truss out of office, by sell-
ing off the UK’s bonds and currency in
at home
debts during the pandemic, are particu- an unpopular candidate for re-election in this month’s state polls, then he too response to a budget-busting tax
larly vulnerable to these attacks now. managing a widening deficit and a large may feel compelled to step up spending scheme. They compelled two old popu-
A
Battles are most likely in nations where share of government bonds — 25 per cent on popular schemes. Meanwhile, Mex- list warhorses, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of
leaders are under the heaviest pressure — owned by foreigners. Facing power ico’s deficit is rising rapidly towards 5 per Turkey and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Alexander
n epic clash is brewing in to increase spending, because their own outages and rising inflation, President cent of GDP, the highest since the 1990s, Brazil, to embrace fiscal restraint. Baunov
2024. In a boom year for popularity is so low. The rub: that is most and the popular president, Andrés Erdoğan shelved bizarrely unorthodox
elections, with national countries. I track polls in 10 developed Manuel López Obrador, is passing on the policies and appointed financial market
O
contests from the US to
India, incumbents seeking
and 10 developing countries; approval
ratings have fallen over the past year in
In a boom year for elections, problem to an untested successor. While
several frontier economies from Ghana
veterans to restore investor confidence.
Notice the pattern. Financial markets
another term will be tempted as always three out of four, and the median rating is incumbents will be tempted to Sri Lanka have been forced over the are now so large, dwarfing any national n October 29, several thou-
to ramp up public spending before the now just 45 per cent in developing coun- to ramp up public spending past couple of years to cut spending as economy, that the vigilantes usually pre- sand angry men stormed
vote. That puts them on course to col- tries, and a near-record low 36 per cent they faced bankruptcy, their leaders will vail. Leaders take them on at their own the airport at Makhachkala,
lide with the global bond vigilantes who, for the 10 developed countries. before the vote find it increasingly hard to stay the risk. In the US, where complacency is capital of Dagestan in Rus-
reawakened from a long slumber by the Bond vigilantes, usually triggered by course in an election year. high and many seem to think the global sia’s mainly Muslim north
new era of high interest rates, will be inflation, will also be quick to act in Cyril Ramaphosa’s approval rating fell No country is immune. Going back to investors will never tire of buying Ameri- Caucasus. They were looking for Jews
quick to punish profligate politicians. countries where a free-spending leader nearly 10 points in the past year to just at least 1960, research shows, leaders can debt, it’s worth pondering the fate of believed to have arrived from Israel. The
As I noted early this year, ballots in is making a bad fiscal situation worse. over 40 per cent, and the country’s deficit have often raised spending or cut taxes the losers. Brazil, Turkey and the UK police seemed inactive, much like during
more than 30 nations will offer a say to Six leaders face a 2024 election in coun- has tripled since the 2000s to more than to improve their re-election prospects. changed their wayward ways under vigi- Yevgeny Prigozhin’s abortive mutiny in
two out of every three adults in the demo- tries where the deficit has been rising 5 per cent. Recent steps to restrain spend- In recent decades, they tended to get lante pressure and are so far better for it. June. In a second Dagestani city,
cratic world — a record year of voting steadily and is now in what many bond ing have also shifted it to targets likely to away with it. Borrowing costs were so Taking on the bond vigilantes is mostly a Khasavyurt, a mob searched for Jewish
since data collection began in the early investors would consider a danger zone please voters, such as higher public cheap through the 2010s that bond losing battle but that won’t stop many refugees allegedly placed in local hotels.
1960s. This historic pageant of democ- — above 5 per cent of gross domestic wages, and public debt is still growing. investors looked the other way, except politicians from trying. In Karachay-Cherkessia, protesters
racy will be an occasion for parties to product. They range from India and India’s risks are partially offset by the in extreme cases like Argentina. That demanded the eviction of all Jews from
indulge in their usual tactic of pre-elec- Bangladesh to South Africa and the US, fact that it has a higher economic growth changed in 2022 with the return of infla- The writer is chair of Rockefeller International the republic. In Nalchik, also in the north
Caucasus, a Jewish cultural centre under
construction was set on fire and antise-
mitic graffiti scrawled on its walls.
Matt Kenyon
As happened after the Prigozhin
mutiny, Vladimir Putin appeared to
capitalism
openly supporting Palestinians in defi-
ance of the west and Israel. The current
war in the Middle East is not the first
during Putin’s long rule, but the conse-
quences are different. The reason lies in
Russia’s fundamentally changed foreign
and domestic policy.
After 9/11, Putin was the first foreign
son for that is that “you can’t regulate leader to phone his US counterpart,
BUSINESS what you don’t understand,” says Tim George W Bush, to express his condo-
O’Reilly, CEO of O’Reilly Media and visit- lences. Twenty-two years later, after
Rana ing professor of practice at the UCL Insti-
Foroohar tute for Innovation and Public Purposes.
In a paper on rents in the “attention
economy” released last week with Mari-
This war in the Middle East
is not the first during
A
ana Mazzucato and Ilan Strauss, O’Reilly
argues that “the more fundamental Putin’s long rule, but the
rtificial intelligence has been problem that regulators need to address
at the centre of the global is that mechanisms by which platforms consequences are different
conversation in recent days, measure and manage user attention are
with a major summit in the poorly understood.” For O’Reilly and such metrics are proprietary and would executive order has provisions that monopoly suits. There’s an argument to Hamas’s attack on Israel, Putin was care-
UK and a new executive his co-authors, “effective regulation allow third parties to game their systems would force AI developers of “dual-use be made that we need a bit less focus on ful, even ambiguous, in his words, even
order from the White House. Much of the depends on enhanced disclosures.” if they are known. But, as current anti- foundation models” — meaning those Terminator-style worst-case scenarios though Israel has not joined western
discussion has centred on how compa- Set aside AI for a moment and con- trust cases involving Big Tech companies that could be used for either military or for AI and much more specific economic sanctions against Russia and has limited
nies and regulators might prevent futur- sider the metrics used by giant search aim to demonstrate, such parties, along civilian purposes — to provide updates to data disclosure to curb the new technol- its aid to Ukraine. One reason is that the
istic disasters triggered by AI, from engines, ecommerce platforms and with customers, have been hurt them- federal government officials on security ogy in the here and now, before it has war against Ukraine has changed Russia
nuclear war to a pandemic. But there’s a social media companies to monetise selves. The trouble in gauging harm is testing. Such testing would have to be already gained too much power. For so much that it has a different approach
real time problem that’s getting far less attention. These include the number of that so much about digital business mod- “robust, reliable, repeatable and stand- example, White House proposals don’t to the Arab-Israeli conflict and domestic
attention: how to insure that AI doesn’t users and the time they spend on a site, els and how they work is opaque. And ardised.” The US Department of Com- deal specifically with immediate eco- antisemitism. By disputing Ukraine’s
eat everyone’s economic lunch. how much they buy and in response to this is even more true when we shift the merce is tasked with developing stand- nomic harms such as the use of copy- right to exist, Russia is acting as the arbi-
I’m not referring just to the AI-related which ads, the ratio of organic clicks to focus to large language models and gen- ards for detecting and labelling AI-gener- righted data in training models. ter of and successor to the Soviet and
job disruption that may be coming ad clicks, how much traffic is sent to out- erative AI. While their operational mod- ated content. There has been a robust debate about tsarist empires. Their legacy includes
down the road. That, at least, is a known side sites, the volume of commerce in a els are different to those of search engines It’s a good start but it’s not enough. how to balance safety and innovation friendships with Arab states, directed
challenge. I’m talking instead about the given industry and what percentage of or ecommerce, they do also depend on White House deputy chief of staff Bruce when it comes to AI. If the commerce against Israel and the west, and unofficial
way in which AI will both replicate and fees go to third party sellers. user attention and algorithmic authority Reed, who led efforts on the executive department is smart, it might use the antisemitism in Soviet institutions that
increase the problems of surveillance Any surveillance business model will And as the regulatory conversations of order, told me last week that “we wanted executive order as a lever to force AI marked out domestic opponents in eth-
capitalism. By this we mean the way in make use of these key metrics. And yet, the past few days have shown, these are to do everything we could with the tools developers, which include many large nic and cultural terms. This is not to men-
which user data and attention is control- as the authors note, it is only the more poorly understood, both alone and in that we have” and the administration platforms, to open up their black boxes tion the pogroms of the late tsarist era.
led and monetised by a handful of large traditional financial metrics that are relation to each other. The White House hopes the order will “help build consen- and show us how these businesses really In foreign policy, this legacy manifests
technology players who are able to reported regularly and consistently in sus around what we can do.” That might work. That would be a step towards iden- itself in the Kremlin’s attempts to rally
extract economic rents that are dispro- public documents. This results in obfus- include Federal Trade Commission cases tifying key metrics for a public disclosure countries against the world order under
portionate to the value that they add.
As any number of antitrust actions in
cation because those financial reports
are “almost completely disconnected
We need less focus on on AI monopoly power; the order explic-
itly calls for a “fair, open and competitive
scheme — a must for good regulation. We
failed to come up with a better account-
the banner of anti-westernism and anti-
imperialism. Inside Russia, it labels crit-
the US and Europe show, we have yet to from the operating metrics that are used Terminator-style scenarios AI ecosystem”. ing system for surveillance capitalism. ics of the war, many of whom went
tackle this problem in areas like internet to actually manage so much of the busi- and more on economic But 30 years after the advent of the Let’s not make that mistake with AI. abroad, including to Israel, as insuffi-
search, digital advertising and social ness.” consumer internet, Big Tech platforms ciently patriotic. The Kremlin sees ordi-
media, let alone AI. A big part of the rea- Companies will, of course, argue that data disclosure themselves are only now facing major rana.foroohar@ft.com nary people in and outside Russia as
having a natural hostility towards liber-
als, gay people, intellectuals and politi-
cal, cultural and financial elites, as well
as imbued with a certain antisemitism.
After the failure of Russia’s blitzkrieg
West must not prevaricate when it comes to seizing Russian reserves attack on Ukraine in early 2022, the
Kremlin became consumed with the
idea of opening a second front. It tried a
gas front against Europe last winter, and
a grain front stoking fears of world food
Canada, uniquely, has done), and were to react to seizure by pulling out Other large reserve holders do at least fit to join the EU. It would also set a salu- shortages and migration crises. It hoped
ECONOMICS endorsing prominent lawyers’ argu- their reserves, that horse would have have an alternative to the west, namely tary precedent, suggesting that a coun- for a flare-up over Taiwan, or domestic
ments that Moscow has no legal already bolted on at least two occasions: to place their official savings in China. try that flagrantly attacks the interna- political problems in the US. Now that a
Martin recourse against asset seizures after its the blocking order itself, and the G7 That would come at an economic cost: a tional order cannot expect to enjoy its second front has opened in the Israel-
violations of international law. announcement that accounts will not be non-convertible currency is no choice protections. Hamas war, Moscow may hope to pro-
Sandbu That this is not happening reveals the unblocked until Russia compensates for prudent reserve management. Nor Other economic arguments are har- pose a bargain to the west: “We’ll help
legal qualms as vicarious arguments for Ukraine for its destruction. would it make much sense politically. boured in private. One goes: Europe you get out of the mess in Palestine, you
W
more self-interested objections to sei- Yet IMF data shows no subsequent However hypocritical or self-serving knows from its history that exacting help us do the same in Ukraine.” This
zure. The most important is the fear shift of reserves out of the western fold. emerging countries may find the payments from a defeated wartime foe accounts for a Hamas delegation’s visit
ithin days of Vladimir that confiscating Russia’s assets will Where would they go? The largest west, surely no one believes Xi Jinping can make things a lot worse. A hundred to Moscow on October 26.
Putin’s full-scale assault make other non-western countries pull is less tempted to weaponise financial years ago, war reparations imposed on However, Russia’s decision-making is
on Ukraine, western their own reserves out of the west, in dependence. Germany were so large that attempting too degraded for its leaders to use such
capitals acted with
remarkable determin-
case one day the same treatment could
be meted out to them.
Deploying these The only realistic prospect is that non-
western economies decide not to accu-
to pay them destabilised the German
economy.
opportunities. They are in the grip of
destructive emotions, obsessed with
ation in blocking Russia’s access to more The concern is that this could destabi- assets for Ukraine’s mulate such large reserves in the first But the transfer problem does not grievances and fixated on revenge. This
than $300bn of foreign exchange lise the global financial system and in benefit is morally the place, and marginally diversify those apply today. Russia’s reserves are accu- reduces their ability to play a construc-
reserves. In the 20 months since, how- particular diminish the dollar’s and the they retain. There is some sign of the mulated surpluses from the past. Tak- tive role in the Middle East. While con-
ever, the western sanctions coalition has euro’s captive investors among central obvious next step former. In 2022, global reserves fell by 8 ing them would not require the Russian ducting its aggressive geopolitical game,
got itself into ever more contortions bank reserve managers. The European per cent in dollar terms before recover- economy to produce impossible sur- the Kremlin has overlooked the conse-
trying to avoid the morally obvious next Central Bank has issued a strong warn- reserves belong to Beijing, and reflect ing somewhat. Excessive surpluses pluses in the future. Call it the Weimar quences at home. Its intense anti-west-
steps: seizing the reserves and deploy- ing to European policymakers against accumulated Chinese trade surpluses being a source of international instabil- fallacy: there is no parallel here to the ern sentiment has generated violence in
ing them for Ukraine’s benefit. even taxing EU companies making with western commercial partners. ity, this is not something to fear. And Versailles treaty’s mistakes. the north Caucasus which contradicts
The ostensible justification is legal windfall profits on blocked Russian Claims on the west will remain denomi- slow diversification is bound to happen That such thoughts circulate is a sign of the image of domestic harmony that
obstacles. But if those were really the assets — which seems the most that the nated in western currencies and gov- anyway as the global economy changes. the west’s unreliable intentions. However Putin aims to project.
reason for such timidity, western gov- sanctions coalition is currently willing erned by its laws. If Beijing wanted to The supposed cost of seizing Russia’s the war ends, calls to treat Russia “rea-
ernments would have been doing all to contemplate. sell out of western assets altogether, it reserves, then, is limited. It must in any sonably” will suddenly multiply. All the The writer is senior fellow at the Carnegie
they could to overcome them: pursuing The argument looks superficially would struggle to find alternatives. The case be held against the economic gains. more reason to seize its reserves now. Russia Eurasia Center, Berlin and visiting
compensation claims under existing sound. But it unravels upon a closer look rest of the world is too small to house the They include giving Ukraine the finan- fellow at the European University Institute,
law, pushing legislative changes (as at the facts. If non-western governments scale of claims China wants to rack up. cial means to win, recover and become martin.sandbu@ft.com Florence
22 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 6 November 2023*