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MONDAY 6 NOVEMBER 2023 EUROPE

EU plots to regain its competitive edge How to pay less and still get top-flight staff
BIG READ, PAGE 19 PILITA CLARK, PAGE 11

Beyond war Briefing


US seeks PA i Biden trails Trump in
latest US presidential polls
role in Gaza Joe Biden trailed Republican
challenger Donald Trump in two
opinion polls yesterday as splits
A Palestinian woman looks out from the within the Democratic party over
rubble of a residential building follow- US policy on the Israel-Hamas war
ing a blast at Al-Maghazi refugee camp and concerns over the American
in the central Gaza Strip yesterday. economy drag down the
US secretary of state Antony Blinken incumbent president’s 2024
told Palestinian Authority president re-election prospects.— PAGE 2
Mahmoud Abbas during an unan-
nounced visit to the occupied West Bank i New rival for Erdoğan
yesterday the US wanted the PA to play Longtime Turkish opposition
a “central role” in the future govern- leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has
ment of Gaza, as the Arab world and been ousted in favour of veteran
some western capitals pressed for a halt lawmaker Özgür Özel after his
in Israel’s war on Hamas in the enclave. election defeat to President Recep
Health officials in Gaza, run by Tayyip Erdoğan this year.— PAGE 4
Hamas since 2007, said 9,770 people had
died in Israeli attacks since the October i Buffet’s cash pile swells
7 rampage into Israel by Hamas, in Warren Buffett’s decision to sell
which 1,400 Israelis were killed. stakes in publicly traded groups in
Gazan officials said more than 30 died the third quarter amid a dearth of
in what they said was an Israeli air strike appealing investments has grown
on Al-Maghazi. The Israeli military said Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile to
it could not confirm it had hit the camp. a record $157bn.— PAGE 6
News & analysis pages 2&3
Haitham Imad/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock i BHP dam settlement aim
Australian miner BHP has said
publicly for the first time that it
wants to reach a final settlement

Citadel says onus should be on banks over a 2015 dam disaster in Brazil
worth potentially tens of billions
of dollars of liabilities.— PAGE 10

i Shell boss defends shift

to stress test risk of Treasury deals Shell boss Wael Sawan has
defended a shift in focus on energy
transition that has led several
senior executives to leave the oil
company’s green divisions in the
past six months.— PAGE 6
3 US basis trade bets soar 3 Regulators signal unease 3 Fears for bond market in event of sell-off i Music copyright fees surge
Growth in streaming and a post-
COSTAS MOURSELAS the hedge funds themselves. The US Hedge fund bets against US Treasur- lators worry it could lead to a collapse fund clients perform under various pandemic resurgence in public
AND HARRIET AGNEW — LONDON
Securities and Exchange Commission, ies futures climbed to new highs in the of the world’s most important bond stresses to make sure they have enough licensing of concerts has
Ken Griffin, founder and chief executive which regulates hedge funds, has pro- seven days to October 24, with record market. collateral to withstand a market shock. generated a surge to $41.5bn
of $62bn US hedge fund Citadel, has posed a new regime for the Treasury net shorts against the two-year and five- The BIS blamed a “disorderly reduc- Griffin said he was not opposed to reg- globally in music copyright
warned regulators they should focus on market that would treat hedge funds year future. Most, but not all, of these tion in margin leverage” as a contributor ulations capping the amount of borrow- annual revenues.— PAGE 6
banks rather than his industry if they like the broker-dealer arms of banks. bets were in the basis trade. to the collapse of the US Treasury mar- ing by hedge funds in the Treasury mar-
want to reduce risks in the financial sys- “The SEC is searching for a problem,” Citadel, alongside rival hedge funds ket in March 2020 at the onset of the ket, provided the proposals were “sub- i Indonesia’s nickel woes
tem stemming from leveraged bets on Griffin said. “If regulators are really Millennium Management and Rokos pandemic. However, in the Fed’s latest ject to sound economic analysis and A nickel mining corruption
US government debt. worried about the size of the basis trade, Capital Management, is among many Financial Stability Report last month, proposed for public comment”. crackdown by Indonesia led to
Global regulators have warned about they can ask banks to conduct stress that routinely use the basis trade. the central bank said risks related to the “If the SEC recklessly impairs the supply shortages and forced the
growing risks emerging from the so- tests to see if they have enough collat- The Bank for International Settle- basis trade “are likely mitigated by basis trade, it would crowd out funding country to import large quantities
called Treasury basis trade — selling eral from their counterparties.” ments and researchers at the US Federal tighter financing terms applied to hedge for corporate America, raising the cost of ore from the Philippines to keep
Treasury futures while buying US gov- Reserve are among those to have funds by dealer counterparties over the of capital to build a new factory or hire smelters operating.— PAGE 4
ernment bonds and extracting gains warned about the risks of a rapid past several quarters”. more employees,” Griffin said. “It would ........................................................................
from the small gap between the two ‘If the SEC recklessly build-up of hedge fund bets in the Treas- The prime brokerage divisions of also increase the cost of issuing new
using borrowed money. impairs the basis trade, it ury market, which is magnified by lev- banks play a key part in the basis trade debt, which will be borne by US taxpay- i Crossword and Lex
But Griffin said they should focus on erage levels that can exceed 100 times. because they lend money to hedge ers to the tune of billions or tens of bil- The Lex column, Business Life
the risk management of banks that ena- would crowd out funding If the trade moves against them and funds while using their Treasury bonds lions of dollars a year.” and the FT crossword can be
ble the trade by lending to hedge funds,
rather than try to increase regulation of
for corporate America’ hedge funds are forced to sell their
Treasury bonds at the same time, regu-
as collateral. Banks are expected to eval-
uate how the portfolios of their hedge
Additional reporting by Kate Duguid
Ruchir Sharma page 21
found inside today.— PAGE 11

Musk enters AI arena saying chatbot


Grok will answer ‘spicy questions’
TIM BRADSHAW — LONDON “It will also answer spicy questions Grok, which will be available to sub-
HANNAH MURPHY — SAN FRANCISCO that are rejected by most other AI sys- scribers of the app’s new “Premium+”
tems,” xAI said as it announced a “very service, costing around $16 a month.
Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence early” testing version of Grok. In September, social media rival Meta
start-up xAI has released its first AI So-called generative AI companies, announced that it was launching nearly
Goldman’s new unit forms model as the tech billionaire looks to whose technology can create humanlike 30 AI chatbots, including one AI assist-
take on OpenAI, Google and Meta with text, code and imagery in seconds, have ant designed to answer user questions,
heart of Solomon strategy a chatbot tightly integrated with X, for- raised billions of dollars this year as and others based on the personas of
Boss bets big i PAGE 8 merly Twitter. investors pile in to an industry that pro- celebrities as an entertainment play.
Grok, the new AI system, has “real time ponents say could be as transformative Musk’s team has been racing to catch
access” to information from X, the as the internet. Others, however, fear a up with more established rivals such as
Austria €4.50 Morocco Dh50
Bahrain Din1.8 Netherlands €4.50
social media platform Musk bought for new tech bubble is inflating as commer- OpenAI, which he co-founded in 2015
Belgium €4.50 Norway NKr45 $44bn a year ago, he said in a post on cialisation of the technology remains at but left three years later.
Croatia Kn33.91/€4.50 Oman OR1.60 Saturday night. He said this gave it a an early stage. Experts warned that the chatbot had
Cyprus €4.20 Pakistan Rupee350
Czech Rep Kc125 Poland Zl 25
“massive advantage over other models” xAI’s ability to release a capable the potential to display biases or spread
Denmark DKr46 Portugal €4.20 that have largely relied on older model with what it says was just two harmful material or false information.
Egypt E£80 Russia €5.00 archives of internet data. months of training shows how new Other AI players have struggled with
France €4.50 Serbia NewD530
Germany €4.50 Slovenia €4.20
The chatbot “loves sarcasm” and entrants are beginning to eat away at the these issues, “even after various trust
Greece €4.20 Spain €4.20 responds with “a little humour”, Musk huge lead established by OpenAI, which and safety teams from those companies
Hungary Ft1450 Switzerland SFr6.70 added, hoping that giving Grok more released its breakthrough chatbot Chat- have worked to make them safer”, said
India Rup220 Tunisia Din7.50
Italy €4.20 Turkey TL110
personality will allow it to stand out in GPT almost a year ago. Reid Blackman, an AI ethics adviser at
Luxembourg €4.50 UAE Dh24 an increasingly crowded market. Users of X can apply now to try out Virtue Consultants.
Malta €4.20

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2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 6 November 2023

INTERNATIONAL

Middle East

Blinken sees key Abbas role in any post-Hamas rule


Top US official meets Hamas has controlled since 2007, only cials in Gaza accused Israel of launching tory late last month and have now encir- end from officials in Egypt, Jordan and Biden's administration turns its atten-
as part of a “comprehensive political an air strike on a refugee camp in the cled Gaza City, Hamas's main base. the United Arab Emirates also calling tion to what will happen to Gaza — and
Palestinian Authority head solution” to the conflict, the Palestini- besieged strip that they said killed doz- Fierce street battles have been for a ceasefire. who will run it — if Israel achieves its
in surprise West Bank visit ans' official Wafa news agency said. ens of people. reported between IDF troops and Israel's prime minister, Benjamin war aim of dismantling Hamas.
Blinken, who also held recent meet- Gazan health officials say 9,770 people Hamas militants. Aid agencies have Netanyahu, has flatly ruled out a cease- One idea being discussed in Washing-
GUY CHAZAN — JERUSALEM ings in Tel Aviv and the Jordanian capi- have been killed in the war that was expressed mounting concern over the fire unless Hamas returns all hostages. ton is a possible interim government
MAI KHALED — KHAN YOUNIS tal, Amman, is on his second trip to the humanitarian situation in Gaza, which The US is also against a ceasefire, saying run by Arab states or the UN before “an
region since Israel declared war on is desperately short of food, drinking that it would merely allow Hamas to effective and revitalised Palestinian
US secretary of state Antony Blinken Hamas. His tour came as the Arab world
The Palestinian Authority water, medicines and fuel. Aid is trick- regroup and launch further attacks. Authority” takes over governance of the
told the Palestinian Authority president and some western capitals pressed for a president called for an ling through the Rafah crossing between Blinken has instead proposed a series territory.
Mahmoud Abbas that the US saw the PA ceasefire in the conflict — a demand that Gaza and Egypt, but NGOs operating in of localised “humanitarian pauses” that Hours before Blinken arrived in Ram-
as “playing a central role” in any post- Israel and the US have rejected.
‘immediate halt to the the strip say it is not nearly enough. would make it easier to bring humani- allah, Wafa said that Israeli warplanes
Hamas government in Gaza, a US offi- Wafa said that Abbas used the meet- devastating Israeli war’ Catherine Colonna, French foreign tarian aid into Gaza and get foreign had attacked Gaza's Al-Maghazi refugee
cial said. ing with Blinken to call for an “immedi- minister, said after meeting the emir of nationals out. camp. Ashraf al-Qudra, a spokesperson
The official, who briefed reporters ate halt to the devastating Israeli war on unleashed by Israel in response to the Qatar that the two had agreed on the Yesterday Blinken told Abbas that the for the Palestinian health ministry in
travelling with Blinken, was speaking Gaza” and to push for the “swift provi- October 7 rampage by the militant need for a ceasefire. “An immediate US was committed to getting aid into Gaza, said that more than 30 people had
yesterday after the US's most senior dip- sion of humanitarian aid, including group Hamas. That attack killed 1,400 humanitarian truce, lasting and sus- Gaza and restoring essential services, been killed in the strike.
lomat held talks with Abbas in the occu- medical supplies, food, water, electric- people, according to Israeli officials. tained, is absolutely necessary and must according to a readout of the meeting The IDF did not immediately com-
pied West Bank. But Abbas said the PA ity and fuel” to the enclave. After an aerial bombardment of Gaza, be able to lead to a ceasefire,” she said. from the state department. ment on the reports.
would assume power in Gaza, which The meeting came as Palestinian offi- Israel Defense Forces entered the terri- Her words echoed calls over the week- The talks come as US president Joe Alexander Baunov Opinion

Conflict. Political fallout Presidential election

Polls show
Gaza war triggers rift among US Democrats Trump ahead
Biden’s stance secures Jewish
ing the conflict between Israel and
Hamas are heightened because five
of Biden in
support but leaves progressives years ago it was the site of the worst
antisemitic attack in US history, when a
five key states
alienated and Muslims outraged white supremacist shot and killed 11
worshippers at the Tree of Life syna-
gogue in Squirrel Hill. FELICIA SCHWARTZ — WASHINGTON
JAMES POLITI — PITTSBURGH
Last week, antisemitic graffiti was
Two polls yesterday showed US Presi-
From a hotel lobby in Pittsburgh, Mira- found in the local park, and police have
dent Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump
cle Jones had a warning for Joe Biden: increased patrols. “People are more on
as concerns over the economy and
the US president's staunch backing for edge,” said Feldstein.
splits within the Democratic party over
Israel in its war against Hamas is erod- “How can we call for a ceasefire when
the Gaza war drag down the president’s
ing support on the left and hurting his there are over 200 hostages being held
2024 re-election prospects.
re-election chances in 2024. and when Israel has a right to self-
“The White House has lost a lot of defence? What should be called for is the A New York Times/Siena poll found
people,” said Jones, a 35-year-old pro- surrender of Hamas,” said Zipin. Biden trailing Trump in five of the six
gressive political activist in the western Avigail Oren, a liberal US-Israeli his- most important battleground states,
Pennsylvania city where Biden will need torian in Pittsburgh, said political fuelled by doubts about his handling of
a strong turnout if he is to carry the dynamics were shifting rapidly and the the economy, questions about his age
swing state next year. unity within the community since the and discontent on other issues such as
Jones has seen Muslim-Americans in synagogue attack was at risk of coming the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
her area mobilising to ensure “anyone apart. She did not believe in standing by A CBS News poll also showed Trump
but Biden” wins in 2024, while black Israel “at all costs”, but she also felt ahead of Biden a year before the 2024
voters fear multiple international con- “alienated” from those who refused to presidential election. The poll found
flicts will jeopardise domestic priorities condemn Hamas and did not under- more voters thought they would be bet-
and liberal Jewish people feel “hurt and stand that Israel had a “right to exist”. ter off financially if Trump won in 2024,
isolated”. “I think you're going to see a “I think that every voter in the Jewish and that Biden had failed to win over
lot of people going to non-traditional community is currently reassessing Democrats in the way that Trump had
parties,” she said. where they were. Unless your head is convinced Republicans.
Since October 7, when Hamas buried in the sand, you have been forced American voters tend to focus on
launched the deadliest attack on Israeli to face the stakes, evaluate where politi- domestic concerns such as the economy
civilians since the creation of the Jewish cians decide if they are aligned with you, more than on foreign policy. But both
state — and Biden rushed to offer Amer- and if they are not what your polls show that Biden faces widespread
ica's strongest possible military and dip- priorities are.” discontent across a range of issues
lomatic support for its ally — the presi- Pro-Palestine in its response to the Hamas attack. “I now endorsing “pauses” in the hostili- ‘I think the In the Muslim community in Pitts- including national security.
dent's approval ratings have remained supporters in think a lot of people in the community ties to allow more aid to Gaza and nego- burgh, there is palpable outrage at Voters said they trusted Trump over
essentially flat. But beneath the surface, Pittsburgh also feel that Israel needs to defend itself,” tiate the release of hostages, it believes president Biden's stance. “We are the leader of the Biden on the economy by 59 per cent to
a rift has opened up among Democrats held a moment said David Feldstein, the owner of the that a full-blown halt to Israel's assault is correct free world, we are the ones who are sup- 37 per cent, the widest gap on any issue,
over the Middle Eastern conflict that is of silence for the Bagel Factory in the largely Jewish will benefit Hamas. posed to be protecting kids,” said one 41- according to the New York Times poll.
threatening to shatter the electoral coa- Israeli victims of neighbourhood of Squirrel Hill. Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic con- in what he year-old Palestinian-American tech Across the electorate Trump got bet-
lition that helped Biden defeat Donald Hamas’s attack “No matter what you do ,both sides gresswoman from California and is doing. engineer with family in Gaza, who ter marks on the economy, regardless of
Maranie R Staab/Anadolou via
Trump in 2020. are losing, I don't think it's a win-win sit- former House Speaker, acknowledged declined to be named out of fear that his gender, age, education or income level.
Israel's ferocious retaliatory offensive
Getty Images
uation for anybody but if you're going to that Biden was taking “a little hit” due to But it’s not relatives could be targeted. “How many If the election were held now, Biden
on Gaza, which is controlled by Hamas go in and slaughter some of the Jewish his Israel position, but she still backed without kids have to die before our president would lose to Trump by margins of
and home to 2.3mn people, has trig- people, something has to be done or it him. “I think the president is correct in thinks that it is necessary to call a cease- three to 10 percentage points in the bat-
gered outrage in the Muslim world. will continue forever.” what he is doing. But it's not without its its cost. fire? Is it going to take that every single tleground states of Arizona, Georgia,
More than 9,400 people have been Jill Zipin, founder and chair of Demo- cost. And that is called courage.” And that member of our community swears that Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania,
killed, according to Palestinian health cratic Jewish Outreach Pennsylvania, Other Democrats have distanced they are not going to vote for him?” the New York Times poll found.
officials, as Israeli forces have laid siege said: “I think the Jewish community is themselves from the White House posi- is called With the presidential election still a Biden was ahead in Wisconsin by only
to and bombarded the coastal enclave. very supportive of Biden — and the Jew- tion. Dick Durbin, the second-highest courage’ year away political operatives in Penn- two percentage points. Biden carried all
In the US, a Gallup poll released on ish community votes.” ranking Democrat in the Senate, told sylvania and nationally say that it is too of these states in 2020.
October 26 showed an 11-percentage- But Summer Lee, the progressive CNN he thought it was time for a early to draw any firm conclusions The New York Times poll found that
point drop in backing for Biden among Democrat representing Pittsburgh in ceasefire. “An effort should be made to about the outcome of the race. demographic groups that had backed
Democrats over the course of just one the House of Representatives, has called engage in conversation between the But Jones said it suddenly feels like an Biden by significant margins in 2020
month, tumbling from 86 per cent in for a ceasefire to allow more humanitar- Israelis and Palestinians.” uphill struggle to rally voters to back were now much more closely contested.
September to 75 per cent. ian assistance to be delivered. Chris Murphy, a Democratic senator Biden. “I do think that Biden might have Voters under 30 preferred Biden by
That split has been apparent in the “The only path to peace, the only path from Connecticut, asked Israel to enough votes to squeak out but there only a single percentage point, his lead
Pittsburgh area. Pennsylvania's two to saving more innocent Palestinian and “reconsider its approach and shift to a has to be serious work. It's like we're among Hispanic voters had dropped sig-
Democratic senators, Bob Casey and Israeli children and hostages is de-esca- more deliberate and proportionate back in the ‘war on terror' all over again nificantly and he had less of an advan-
John Fetterman, have remained in line lation,” Lee said last month. counter-terrorism campaign”. with no lessons learned. I think that's tage in urban areas than Trump did in
with the White House and backed Israel While the Biden administration is In Pennsylvania, emotions surround- what people are frustrated about.” rural areas, the poll found.

Agriculture

Denmark calls for EU farmers to pay for carbon emissions


MAKE A WISE ALICE HANCOCK — LONDON was cut. “We need to find a way we can port sector and a 31 per cent drop in Hague's efforts to cut nitrous oxide pol-
INVESTMENT EU farmers should pay for their green-
transform the agricultural sector like emissions from buildings over the same lution, which is exacerbated by the use
other industries, and it's not easy. It will period. Reductions are not expected to of nitrogen fertilisers.
Subscribe today at house gas emissions, Denmark’s cli-
not be done in the short term,” he said. increase before 2030 on the basis of Attempts to add transport in the agri-
ft.com/subscribetoday mate minister has said, as Brussels
EU officials have said that policymak- measures currently in place in member cultural sector to the ETS when it was
struggles to rein in a sector projected to
ers are looking at ways to include agri- states. revised last December failed, and an
become the bloc’s biggest polluter by
culture in the ETS, which since 2005 has Farming is seen as a politically sensi- effort by Brussels to include large farms
2040.
helped reduce emissions in the power tive sector given the strength of the in the bloc's new rules on industrial
FINANCIAL TIMES 28821, Coslada, Madrid. Legal Deposit Number
(Deposito Legal) M-32596-1995; Lars Aagaard said in an interview that sector by 37 per cent, according to the lobby in Brussels and fears that forcing emissions are likely to be diluted after
Bracken House, 1 Friday Street, London EC4M 9BT.
Publishing Director, Roula Khalaf; the farmers deserving “most success on European Commission. it to become more sustainable will resistance from EU members.
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Monday 6 November 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 3

INTERNATIONAL

Hamas’s ‘dead ‘He’s not


a humble
person.

man walking’ He has an


enormous
ego and

leader played sees himself


as if on
some sort

Israel for years of mission


in this
world’
Hebrew-speaking Sinwar had been seen
as biddable until the attack on October 7
NERI ZILBER — TEL AVIV Sinwar during his time in prison
attempted to capture his character:
Decades before he orchestrated the “cruel . . . authoritative, influential,
October 7 attacks by Hamas on Israel, accepted by his friends and with unu-
Yahya Sinwar was jailed by an Israeli sual abilities of endurance, cunning and Yahya Sinwar,
military tribunal for multiple murders. manipulative, content with lit- pictured left,
His response: to study Hebrew. tle . . . keeps secrets even inside prison spent 22 years in
“[Vladimir] Jabotinsky and [Men- amongst other prisoners . . . has the an Israeli prison
achem] Begin and [Yitzhak] Rabin — he ability to carry crowds.” Below: students
read all the books that came out about Raised in a slum in Khan Younis in in Gaza show
prominent Israeli figures,” said Micha southern Gaza, Sinwar first entered the their support for
Kobi, who interrogated Sinwar for the political scene in Gaza during the early the Hamas chief
Ahmed Zakot / SOPA Images/
Shin Bet intelligence service. “He learnt 1980s as a “whisperer” advising SIPA USA /Mohammed
us from the bottom to the top.” Hamas’s wheelchair-bound founder, Talatene
Then, 15 years into his sentence, he Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, who was revered
deployed his pitch-perfect Hebrew in an within the movement.
Israeli television interview. Rather than Sinwar’s neighbour in Khan Younis
war, he urged the Israeli public to sup- was Mohammed Deif, now Hamas’s
port a hudna, or truce, with the Hamas shadowy military chief.
militant group. In addition to helping establish the
“We understand that Israel sits on group’s military wing, Sinwar was put in
200 nuclear warheads and it has the charge of its feared internal security
most advanced . . . air force in the apparatus, the Majd (Glory) Force,
region. We know that we don’t have the charged with eliminating suspected col-
ability to dismantle Israel,” said the Pal- laborators. It earned him the nickname
estinian. “the butcher of Khan Younis”, which
Yet for all that, Sinwar, 61, is today some Palestinians use to this day.
Israel’s most wanted man; Benjamin Sinwar has become an almost mythi-
Netanyahu, Israel’s premier, simply cal figure for Palestinians, particularly
refers to him as a “dead man walking”. within Gaza. “Many Palestinians feel
The leader of the Hamas militant pride, and Sinwar is very popular on the
group in Gaza is deemed the single fig- Palestinian street,” said one prominent
ure most responsible for the October 7 Palestinian activist in East Jerusalem.
attack that killed more than 1,400 Israe- “But moderate Palestinians under-
lis. His elimination is the primary objec- stand that he has sent us back to the
tive of the escalating Israeli campaign to stone age [because of October 7 and its
“destroy” Hamas. aftermath].”
Palestinian officials estimate that Above all, those who know him say
some 9,770 people have been killed in that his rise within Hamas has relied on
Gaza since Israel began its retaliation, cultivating a reputation for ruthlessness
destroying large areas of the territory in and violence, which holds sway even
attacks from land, air and sea. among the top ranks of Hamas.
On the eve of war, Israel viewed Sin- “It’s the difference between how
war as a dangerous extremist who was [Hamas officials] act when they’re alone
nevertheless biddable, more concerned and when they’re with him,” said one
with solidifying Hamas rule in Gaza and non-Israeli who has years of experience
dealing with Sinwar directly. “It’s fear,
they’re afraid of him. None of them
‘Many Palestinians stood up to him before he decided to
feel pride, and Sinwar execute this barbarity [on October 7]. It
was the perfect military operation but
is very popular on the the consequences will be biblical.”
Palestinian street’ Sinwar was released in 2011 after
serving 22 years in an Israeli prison. He
extracting economic concessions than was part of an exchange in which more
the group’s professed aim of destroying than 1,000 Palestinians were released
the Jewish state. for one Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, held
“We didn’t understand him at all, in by Hamas in Gaza.
an insane way. Zero,” said Michael Mil- By 2017 he was elected leader of the
stein, a former Israeli military intelli- group for all of Gaza, replacing Ismail
gence officer and expert on Palestinian Haniyeh, who was, according to multi-
affairs. ple people familiar with relations
The portrait of Sinwar given by sev- between the two men, “demoted
eral people who have spent time with upwards” to become Hamas’s political
him, stretching back decades, is of a leader and then outwards to Qatar.
charismatic man of few words, a quick Now clad in a politician’s uniform of
temper and commanding presence. slacks and button-down shirts, Sinwar
Sinwar, widely known as Abu Ibra- hosted foreign diplomats and held fiery
him, had helped build Hamas’s military rallies.
wing, the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, Under his leadership, Hamas cali-
from its early days. But when he was brated its use of force — border protests,
detained in the late 1980s, it was for his incendiary balloons, and especially
special role within Hamas: hunting rocket fire — to prod Israel into further
down Palestinians suspected of collabo- indirect talks via Egyptian, Qatari and
rating with Israel. UN mediators.
Kobi recounts interrogating Sinwar Sinwar’s motives for his explosive
back in 1989 when he confessed to a turn on October 7 remain something of a
murder. He said that Sinwar boasted riddle. “He’s not a humble person. He
about a punishment meted out to one has an enormous ego and sees himself as
suspected informer from a rival faction. if on some sort of mission in this world,”
Sinwar summoned the man’s brother, a said the non-Israeli with long experi-
Hamas member, and “made him bury ence with Sinwar. “He’s a sociopath. I
his own brother alive”. don’t mean this as an insult.”
Sinwar was convicted by a secret According to Israeli intelligence,
Israeli military tribunal for the murder Hamas’s assault required at least a year
of 12 Palestinians, including the man of planning. Sinwar’s outwardly prag-
buried alive, according to two people matic facade, Israeli officials and ana-
familiar with the case. lysts now maintain, was pure deception
He rose to become the leader of all the meant to buy time.
Hamas prisoners in Israeli jails, an influ- Gaza is now facing a devastating
ential post within the group’s hierarchy. onslaught, with Sinwar the principal
At one point, in 2004, Israeli doctors target. But Israel is humbled and the
removed an abscess lodged next to his fate of the region hangs in the balance.
brain, saving his life, according to Israeli That alone may be victory enough for
authorities. Sinwar. “He won’t surrender. He will die
An Israeli intelligence assessment of there in Gaza,” said Kobi.
4 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 6 November 2023

INTERNATIONAL

Middle East Mining

Indonesia
Turkey’s opposition ousts longtime leader forced to
Republican People’s party local elections scheduled for March next
year. The decision marks the most sig-
second round, which stretched into the
early hours yesterday.
Kılıçdaroğlu led a six-party coalition
in the May 2023 presidential vote,
group of senior officials and consultants
rather than seeking counsel from a
import nickel
votes out Kılıçdaroğlu in
aftermath of loss to Erdoğan
nificant shift in power in Turkey’s oppo-
sition since Kılıçdaroğlu became CHP
The vote for party chair will set the
stage for how the CHP, the secularist
which was seen as the opposition’s best
shot in years at unseating Erdoğan after
broader group of stakeholders.
Erdoğan has said that his Justice and
amid illegal
ADAM SAMSON
leader in 2010.
“I have been proposing a bold and
determined policy against the embar-
party of Turkey’s founding father Mus- two decades in power.
His loss, after an unprecedented run-
off, prompted widespread frustration
Development party (AKP) will fight vig-
orously to win back control of Turkey’s
two biggest cities, Istanbul and Ankara,
operations
TURKEY CORRESPONDENT
rassing and passive politics pursued by
‘I have been proposing a among opposition members, some of the capital, in next year’s local races.
Turkey’s main opposition party has our party for a while,” Özel told local bold policy against the whom have questioned whether the The AKP lost control of both mayoral MERCEDES RUEHL — SINGAPORE
HARRY DEMPSEY — LONDON
ousted its longtime leader Kemal media as the CHP party congress got soft-spoken 74-year-old was the right seats in 2019.
Kılıçdaroğlu following his comprehen- under way in Ankara on Saturday.
embarrassing and passive candidate to challenge Erdoğan, who is Özel, a 49-year-old former pharma- Supply shortages caused by Indonesia’s
sive loss against Recep Tayyip Erdoğan The first round of the vote for party politics pursued by [CHP]’ known for his fiery rhetoric. cist, is a longtime party grandee and had crackdown on illegal nickel mining
in a presidential election this year. chair was inconclusive, with neither Some party insiders have also said been seen as an ally of Kılıçdaroğlu. He have forced the country to import large
Members of the Republican People’s Kılıçdaroğlu nor Özel, the favourites in that Kılıçdaroğlu made too many con- is now calling for reform both in how the quantities of ore from the Philippines
party (CHP) voted early yesterday to the race, garnering a majority of votes tafa Kemal Atatürk, will prepare for cessions to smaller political groups that party is managed and how it approaches to keep smelters operating.
replace Kılıçdaroğlu with Özgür Özel, a among the more than 1,300 party dele- next year’s municipal elections. It joined the six-party opposition alliance, the upcoming elections, vowing on Sat-
veteran lawmaker who vowed to shake gates who took part in the poll. Özel comes when many analysts warn that while others have complained that he urday to take an inclusive approach. Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel
up the organisation’s strategy ahead of clinched a majority with 812 votes in the Erdoğan is sliding towards autocracy. delegated party management to a small Additional reporting by Funja Güler producer, has in recent months pursued
a corruption investigation across the
government that has led to delays in the
issuance of quotas for nickel mining.
Exports. Seafood More than 53,000 tonnes of nickel ore
and concentrates were shipped in May
and June from the Philippines to Indo-

China ban shakes up Japan’s scallop industry nesia’s Morowali region, where Tsing-
shan, the world’s largest stainless steel
producer, runs a large nickel smelting
complex, official Indonesian customs
data shows.
Those imports continued until at least
Beijing’s move seen as chance September, including a single shipment
to accelerate consolidation and of 39,500 tonnes from the Philippines to
Weda Bay, another large nickel smelting
shift focus to other markets complex, according to industry execu-
tives and a customs document seen by
the Financial Times.
LEO LEWIS AND KANA INAGAKI — TOKYO
Indonesia has rapidly risen to pro-
The jumbo scallops from the northern duce half the world’s nickel, a material
Japanese fishing town of Betsukai, on vital to stainless steel and the batteries
the island of Hokkaido, have a reputa- used in electric vehicles, but carmakers
tion for being among the most delicious and other customers are concerned the
on the planet, a cherished ingredient on ferocious growth has come at a high
a classic sushi plate. cost.
But for the past month, the Japanese Nickel ore contains more than 98 per
government has exhorted the public to cent waste and shipping it internation-
consume at least five of the delicacies ally is rare, given the expense. Indone-
daily to help draw down stocks that sia’s sudden pausing of quota issuance
have piled up after Beijing banned highlights how its regulation and
imports of the bivalves in August. enforcement have struggled to keep up
Last week, the US military bases in with the searing pace of the industry’s
Japan bought up hundreds of tonnes of growth.
scallops, crustacean casualties in what The Indonesian government has set
Washington’s ambassador to Tokyo up a task force to attempt to restart
Rahm Emanuel called the “economic quota issuance. The mining ministry
wars” with China. last month held discussions with mining
“It’s probably the biggest industry companies that had run out of quota
shock we’ve had in a decade,” Takeshi and could not operate normally, accord-
Ise, president of Marui Sato Kaisan, a ing to a letter seen by the FT. However,
scallop processing company in Betsu- industry executives said no real solu-
kai, said of the embargo, which China tions had emerged from the talks.
introduced after Japan began releasing “Whether the approvals will come in
filtered water from the Fukushima time is still left to be seen,” said the head
nuclear disaster. of one nickel company in Indonesia who
But even as businesses reel from the met the government, referring to the
aftermath, investors said that Beijing’s urgent need to source supplies to keep
ban could deliver an unexpected boost Japanese chain over the past year as it snapped up anese authorities began the gradual ‘It’s scores of small companies were already their smelter running to the end of the
for the industry, offering an opportunity Kura Sushi is smaller rivals. release of 1.3mn tonnes of treated but close to collapse. year.
to accelerate consolidation and redirect selling thick “The challenge for us from next year still mildly radioactive water from the probably But as with other corners of corporate French miner Eramet last month cut
supply chains to sell directly into mar- scallops to prop is whether the fishermen, processing Fukushima Daiichi nuclear meltdown the biggest Japan, rivalry and hostility have pre- its forecast for 2023 nickel ore produc-
kets such as the US. up the fishing companies and trading houses can agree in 2011. The International Atomic vented consolidation among scallop tion from its flagship Weda Bay mine by
Scallops are Japan’s most exported sector. Scallops on an appropriate price so that Japan, Energy Agency approved Tokyo’s plan, industry companies, impeding one solution to 5mn tonnes to 30mn tonnes because of
food product, worth ¥91bn ($611mn) are Japan’s most the US and countries outside China can but China responded by imposing a flat shock we’ve the industry’s ills. the lack of quota.
last year, up 42 per cent on the year exported food buy the scallops,” said Ise. ban on imports of Japanese seafood, One company has begun to change The case that started the government
before. China is the biggest buyer, but product — Kimimasa The molluscs became a geopolitical sending prices tumbling and causing had in a that. Yoshimura Food has over the past crackdown relates to Aneka Tambang,
Mayama/EPA-EFE; Mei Coo
industry chiefs said that only about Teo/Alamy
target in July, one month before the Jap- inventories to pile up as fisheries decade’ eight years acquired a portfolio of more the state-owned miner, after neighbour-
10-15 per cent was consumed domesti- received low offers for unsold stock. than 30 regional food companies, and ing mines that ran out of nickel reserves
cally, while the rest was processed and The embargo, which included Hong recently two big scallop-processing were found to have illegally mined in
exported to the US and south-east Asia. Kong, also hit the crucial processing groups. It has also managed to build a areas assigned to the company.
Exports of Hokkaido-based seafood industry in China. Lost amid the trade reputation as a gentle corporate consoli- Prices of Philippine nickel ore have
products directly to the US jumped to furore, however, is how bad business dator and a friendly home for compa- jumped 23 per cent to $65 per wet met-
¥1.6bn in September from ¥1mn the was before the ban, investors said. nies with succession struggles, by ric tonne since August and the premium
year before, as sales to China, much of Despite the global appetite for scal- retaining the targets’ staff. for Indonesian nickel ore over the local
which was previously for processing and lops, the industry was suffering many- In doing so, it has raised hopes for the price benchmark has surged from about
re-export, fell to zero, according to cus- macroeconomic and demographic emergence of a Japanese scallop cham- $5 to $20 per wet metric tonne on panic
toms figures. issues plaguing Japanese business. pion with a far greater global market buying, according to Mysteel, a Chinese
“Japanese scallops are said to be one Fisheries and processing companies share and purchasing power. steel consultancy.
of the world’s finest so . . . we will defi- are suffering from a chronic staff short- “For us to hold the same bargaining Some analysts believe the supply
nitely be able to sell them,” said Moto- age, current workers are ageing and power as the large processing compa- issues could feed through to global
hisa Yoshimura, chief executive of many groups have no successor in place nies in China, we need to have a bigger nickel prices. Citi turned from bearish
Yoshimura Food, which controls about for elderly founders. Coupled with ris- scale,” Yoshimura said. “We want to cre- to neutral, predicting prices could rise
10 per cent of the country’s scallop mar- ing costs and lack of funds to invest in ate a market where we can negotiate for to $20,000 a tonne, up from $18,100 at
ket and whose share price has doubled modernising outdated equipment, appropriate prices.” present, on supply constraints.

Legal Notices Maritime safety West Africa

Shipowners urged to bolster Guinea coup leader recaptured after jailbreak


protection against EV fires AANU ADEOYE — LAGOS that it is the responsibility of the state to media reports. All of the escapees were
ensure the safety of detainees. By the on trial for the killing of opposition
OLIVER TELLING AND IAN SMITH according to the International Energy An army captain who seized power in grace of God, President Moussa Dadis protesters holding a rally in 2009
LONDON Agency. “Lithium batteries have been Guinea in a coup in 2008 has been Camara is safe and sound despite,” to demand democratic rule and
recognised as potentially hazardous recaptured after escaping from prison Lamah said on Facebook. oppose Camara’s attempts to run for
Recent fires on board ships carrying when it comes to fire risk,” she said. “So in the early hours of Saturday morning Wright said that Guinea’s borders had president in elections scheduled for the
electric cars have prompted a rush to we need to ensure that the regulations following heavy gunfire in the capital. been sealed and that no deaths were following year.
boost the protection of vessels, with a take into account those risks.” Justice minister Charles Alphonse reported during the jailbreak, although About 50,000 people had gathered at
regulatory official warning that growing Her comments follow recent fires on Wright told radio that armed men took videos published on social media sug- the main football stadium in Guinea’s
exports of battery-powered vehicles board electric-car carriers. In July, one control of the Maison Centrale de gested otherwise. capital, Conakry, when soldiers fired
pose a significant safety risk. crew member died after a blaze off the Conakry, a federal prison, and freed He added that Colonel Moussa Tiég- live bullets and sexually assaulted
Heike Deggim, head of safety at the Dutch coast on a ship reportedly carry- Moussa Dadis Camara and the other boro Camara, a former government women. Camara denied any knowledge
UN’s International Maritime Organiza- ing thousands of cars, including several suspected masterminds of a massacre of minister and head of presidential secu- of the sexual assaults and blamed the
tion, said member states would draw up electric vehicles. An investigation into at least 150 pro-democracy supporters rity, had been recaptured. Blaise Gou- killings on out-of-control soldiers, say-
new rules next spring for shipping the cause of the fire has begun, accord- at a stadium in 2009. mou, another Camara ally, was also ing that he was “immensely saddened”.
groups that transport vehicles powered ing to the Dutch coastguard. “We will find them and those respon- back in custody, according to local The trial of 11 men suspected to have
by lithium-ion batteries. On all types of ships, the number of sible will be held accountable,” Wright orchestrated the stadium massacre,
Industry participants said shipowners fires reported last year increased 17 per said. “We wonder how armed men could who all deny the allegations, began in
were also looking to redesign car carri- cent to 209, the highest level for a dec- break the security cordon of the prison 2022. It was suspended for almost two
ers, upgrade fire prevention measures ade, according to a report published in and release prisoners. The escapees will months this year after defence lawyers
and mitigate the threat to lives and glo- May by Allianz. The insurer warned be hunted down.” demanded payment from the govern-
bal trade posed by the batteries, whose that hazardous cargoes were increas- Pepe Antoine Lamah, Camara’s law- ment. The trial resumed in July.
flames can be harder to keep extin- ingly being transported on larger ves- yer, claimed his client was the victim of Guinea has been under military rule
guished than those caused by conven- sels, deepening potential financial a kidnapping by “heavily armed indi- since 2021 when a junta led by
tional vehicles. losses and delays to trade. viduals who forced him into a vehicle Colonel Mamady Doumbouya ousted
Deggim said shipping faced a “huge Prices for insuring electric vehicles as towards an unknown destination” and Alpha Condé in a coup after he changed
problem” as more goods containing lith- cargo, whether on sea or land, are one that he had been returned to prison. the constitution to run for a third term.
ium-ion batteries were transported by and a half times as expensive as for com- “It is still unacceptable and even inap- It is one of several countries across
sea, with electric models making up bustion engines, according to one insur- propriate to describe a kidnapping as an Moussa Dadis Camara had seized west and central Africa that has
about 14 per cent of car sales in 2022, ance market participant. escape. There is no need to remind you power in Guinea amid a 2008 coup endured a coup since 2020.
Monday 6 November 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 5
6 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 6 November 2023

Sovereign debt dilemma Political leaders beware, a new era of high interest rates has awoken bond vigilantes y RUCHIR SHARMA

Berkshire sells Chart topper Streaming helps power annual


revenues from music copyright to hit $41.5bn
Shell boss
backs ‘leaner’
stocks as cash renewables
operation
pile surges to TOM WILSON — LONDON

Chief executive Wael Sawan plans to


make Shell “leaner” and more selective

record $157bn about how it invests in the energy tran-


sition as he defended a shift in focus
that has led several senior executives to
leave the company’s green divisions in
the past six months.

3 Buffett unloads shares worth $5bn Since he took the top job in January,
Sawan has outlined plans to boost

3 Dearth of attractive investments returns by maintaining oil output,


growing the gas business and trimming
less profitable parts of the company’s
low-carbon portfolio established under
ERIC PLATT — NEW YORK wider public alike for clues as to where his predecessor Ben van Beurden.
the 93-year-old investor sees attractive “We need to get leaner, we need to get
Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile surged returns. He directed the proceeds from more focused, we need to get more disci-
to a record $157bn in a quarter in which the stock sales, as well as the cash flows plined,” Sawan told the Financial Times.
chief executive Warren Buffett contin- Berkshire’s many businesses generated, “That inevitably will include choices
ued to sell stakes in publicly traded into cash and Treasury bills. The com- around where we are going to operate
companies, as the so-called Oracle of pany’s cash pile surged during the quar- but also importantly how we operate.”
Omaha found a dearth of appealing ter by nearly $10bn to a record $157.2bn, Last month the UK-listed energy
investments. a sum that gives it formidable firepower major, which is the largest company on
The company sold US and foreign for acquisitions. the FTSE 100, confirmed it would cut
stocks worth more than $5bn in the Berkshire has been one of the big ben- 200 jobs in its low-carbon solutions
third quarter, according to results eficiaries of rising US interest rates, division and place another 130 positions
released on Saturday. The sales lifted which have climbed above 5 per cent under review, representing at least
Berkshire’s divestments of listed shares this year. The company disclosed that 15 per cent of the workforce in that unit.
to nearly $40bn over the past year. the interest income it was earning on its The cuts followed a decision to scale
Investors must wait a further two insurance investments climbed to back Shell’s work on hydrogen technol-
weeks before they can see how Buffett $1.7bn in the three-month period, lifting ogy for passenger cars to focus on
adjusted Berkshire’s portfolio. But Sat- the sum to $5.1bn over the past 12 hydrogen for heavy goods vehicles and
urday’s results filing indicated the com- months. That eclipsed the total interest industry. Shell is building Europe’s larg-
Berkshire earned on its cash reserves in est green hydrogen production plant in
the preceding three years combined. the Netherlands.
The value of Berkshire’s Buffett disclosed that the company Hitmaker: US pop star Miley Cyrus in concert in Brazil last year post-Covid restrictions — Mauricio Santana/Getty Images This year Shell has also agreed to sell
portfolio of shares shrank repurchased $1.1bn worth of Berkshire its retail energy business in the UK and
stock in the quarter, down from $1.4bn DANIEL THOMAS — LONDON resurgence as restaurants, shops and if the rebound in performing rights in Germany and is seeking to exit some of
from $353bn at the in the second quarter. However, the fil- concerts bounced back strongly fol- particular was “a blip or a trend”. its investments in renewable power gen-
Annual revenues generated by music
end of June to $319bn ing showed that purchases had acceler-
copyright have grown to $41.5bn glo-
lowing worldwide lockdowns. He said this growth should continue eration and storage in Europe. Senior
ated in August and again in September, The value of music copyrights to given the popularity of live music and executives, who have left Shell because
bally on the back of continued
pany sold more than 12mn Chevron in a sign that the billionaire investor labels, the artists and the streaming inflation embedded into music of the shift, told the FT it had become
growth in streaming and a post-
shares before it bought Hess for $53bn believed shares of the company were services can vary, with consumers licences. But labels’ digital income clear internally the company’s ambition
pandemic resurgence in public
in an all-stock deal last month. undervalued. paying for music as well as commer- growth showed signs of slowing, Page in some of these areas had changed. “It’s
licensing in concerts and hospitality.
The value of Berkshire’s portfolio of The company’s operating businesses, cial enterprises such as TV shows and added, especially in more mature not what he’s said, it’s what he hasn’t
shares shrank from $353bn at the end of which span the BNSF railroad, Geico A report by Will Page, a former chief restaurants. western markets. said,” said one recently departed execu-
June to $319bn, a decline fuelled by the insurer and aircraft-parts maker Preci- economist at Spotify, analysed reve- Companies have in recent years This slowdown was, however, being tive, referring to a perceived lack of sup-
slide in the broader stock market as sion Castparts, reported a 41 per cent nue streams from various sources and attempted to turn music rights into partly offset by the resurgence in port from Sawan for parts of Shell’s
investors came to believe that the Fed- rise in profits to $10.8bn. The gains were found that they grew by about a sixth tradable investments, buying up large income from physical copies of music, Renewables and Energy Solutions busi-
eral Reserve would keep interest rates fuelled by its insurance unit, which in 2022, with record labels and their portfolios of music catalogues in the which has increased by $1bn since ness. “The silence was deafening.”
higher for longer. reported strong underwriting profits of artists accounting for about two- hope of seeing both capital value 2020 owing to accelerating demand Sawan said he remained committed
That has weighed on the valuations of $2.4bn, offsetting weakness at BNSF thirds of this money, a share that has appreciation as well as income from for compact discs in Asia and vinyl in to transforming Shell into a “multi-
publicly traded companies and and reserves for losses tied to wildfire increased from about half in 2014. revenues such as streaming. Europe and America. energy” company, while cutting emis-
prompted some portfolio managers to litigation against its utility. The growth in streaming platforms But one of the groups at the van- Revenues from physical music for- sions to net zero by 2050, but that Shell
search for better returns in fixed income Berkshire on Saturday reported that such as Spotify — which helped tackle guard of this push — the UK-listed mats in the UK overtook that of Ger- would no longer “pretend to lead” in
markets. The value of Berkshire’s stake significant catastrophe losses — individ- the widespread piracy during the Hipgnosis Songs Fund — has been hit many, Page said, as the British started parts of the energy transition where it
in Apple alone dropped by more than ual insurance losses that top $150mn — early years of digital music — has ena- by issues as the value of music rights buying more vinyl while Germans did not have the right competencies and
$20bn, as shares of the iPhone maker had reached only $590mn in the first bled labels to take a greater share of has stalled. Interest rates have made bought fewer CDs. capabilities. “In transport and industry
fell 12 per cent in the three months to nine months of the year. overall revenue. other investments more attractive, Page is the author of the book Tar- we already have a significant market
the end of September. That figure is down from $3.9bn in the The remainder of this money was sparking questions over the market zan Economics. The annual study uses share and we think it is only natural for
Buffett’s investment shifts are closely same period last year, when Hurricane earned by publishers and songwrit- for music rights. data from groups representing record us to lead as we support the decarboni-
scrutinised by fund managers and the Ian pummelled Florida. ers, with performing rights staging a Page said the big question would be labels, artists and publishers. sation of those sectors,” he said.

Contracts & Tenders


Airlines. Stock value
Investors turn against scandal-hit Qantas
health, with Qantas chair Richard Goy- ticket when the customer booked a That task has fallen to new chief exec-
New chief faces uphill battle der praising the former chief for navi- flight but a “bundle of rights”. utive Vanessa Hudson, who has been
to restore carrier’s battered gating the company through “the most In September, a court ruled that Qan- with the airline for almost three decades
challenging and tumultuous period in tas had illegally sacked 1,700 workers and replaced Joyce. In response to
reputation as its shares plunge the airline’s history” in May. during the pandemic, leaving it facing a aggrieved shareholders, Hudson said
In August, Qantas reported an mammoth compensation bill. Goyder, that the “customer is now our number
A$2.5bn ($1.6bn) underlying pre-tax who alongside two long-serving board one focus” and detailed plans to refund
NIC FILDES — SYDNEY
profit for the year ending in June and members is standing down this year, customers, improve training for staff
In the past three months, Qantas has announced an A$500mn share buyback described the annual meeting vote as and improve the standard of food on its
been found guilty of illegally sacking to reward shareholders for their sup- “overwhelming”. long-haul flights.
1,700 workers, accused of offering ghost port. But customers were fed up with “We hear the message,” he said as The damage done to the Qantas brand
flights to its customers and has lost lost bags and cancelled flights as a result investors lined up at the meeting to take was evident at the annual meeting when
20 per cent of its stock market value. of cost-cutting measures introduced by potshots. One investor demanded to a third of investors voted against the re-
So when investors were asked at the Joyce, who was lambasted after describ- know if any of the people on stage had election of Todd Sampson, a former
airlines annual meeting on Friday ing travellers as “not match fit” last year travelled economy class on an interna- advertising executive.
whether they would back a pay package when there were long queues at air- tional Qantas flight in the past year. Sampson said that he had considered
for its executives, the result was a ports. He later clarified: “the simple fact Stephen Mayne, a Qantas shareholder standing down but felt his experience
resounding “no”. is our operational performance hasn’t and activist investor, said that share- rebuilding brands should come to the
In a severe snub to Australia’s flag car- been up to the standard”. holders had been the “bedrock” of sup- fore now. “Our brand and reputation
rier, 83 per cent of shareholders voted It is now shareholders who have port during the Joyce era but that the have suffered considerable damage,
against the proposal. The fiery meeting turned on Qantas as the company has company had now lost that constitu- damage we will repair,” he told share-
at the Melbourne Convention and Exhi- been hit by scandals. ency too. “Shareholders were the last to holders.
bition Centre has underlined the The consumer regulator sued the air- fold, but collectively they are now quite The job for Hudson and a new chair

Imagine your advert here immensity of the task facing the new
board and management team at Qantas
to restore its reputation.
line in August, accusing it of charging for
“ghost flights”, selling thousands of tick-
ets for flights that had already been can-
feral and seeking restitution,” he says.
Rachel Waterhouse, chief executive of
the Australian Shareholders’ Associa-
and board will be a rapid restoration of
Qantas’s reputation. They will at least
do so from a position of financial
Andrew Charlton, a former Qantas celled. tion, a retail-investor body, said share- strength — with the airline’s balance
executive and managing director of con- Shareholders criticised the “ghost holders were “very disappointed” with sheet bolstered by debt reduction and
sultancy Aviation Advocacy, said Aus- flights” defence offered by the airline, Qantas and needed to hear how the cost-cutting under Joyce — and in a
tralians used to be proud of Qantas. “If namely its argument that it did not sell a company would get back on track. domestic market where it still com-
you take that loyalty for granted mands a market share of more than 60
. . . that starts to chip away. The seem- per cent.
ingly ceaseless scandals and service If they fail to turn it around within a
lapses mean that now Qantas has even year, then they risk further turbulence
lost Australia,” said Charlton. The carrier, at next year’s meeting. Australia’s “two
The carrier, known as the “Flying known as the strikes” law dictates that investors
Kangaroo”, managed to fall out of favour ‘Flying Kangaroo’, could push to dissolve the board after a
with unions, regulators, customers and has fallen out of second vote against the company’s exec-
now shareholders during the 15-year favour with utive pay proposal.
Business for Sale, Business Opportunities, Business Services,
Business Wanted, Legal Notices, Company Notices, Public Notices, Floating Rates Notes,
tenure of Alan Joyce, who stepped down unions, Mayne said he was hopeful that Qan-
Shareholder Messages, Property For Sale, Tender Notices early two months ago. regulators, tas could overcome the turmoil, espe-
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Joyce’s steely focus on the carrier’s customers and cially now that Joyce, and soon Goyder,
Classified Business Advertising balance sheet meant that the airline now shareholders had moved on. Investors felt they have
Tel: +44 20 7873 4000 | Email: advertising@ft.com David Gray/Getty Images
exited the pandemic in good financial had enough “red meat” for now, he said.
Monday 6 November 2023 ★ 7
8 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 6 November 2023

COMPANIES & MARKETS

Goldman boss bets big on wealth management


Solomon is banking on the newly merged division to close the Wall Street titan’s valuation gap — and secure his position
BROOKE MASTERS AND Nachmann said AWM is on a path to
JOSHUA FRANKLIN — NEW YORK
reaching $225bn in alternatives fund-
A year ago, Goldman Sachs’s chief exec- raising by the end of this year, one year
utive pinned his hopes for reviving the earlier than planned, and up from
Wall Street bank’s stock market valua- $40bn in 2020.
tion on a newly merged asset and wealth But the division’s performance is
management division. As David Solo- muddied by the fact that it manages a
mon has faced down unrest inside the chunk of investments left over from
bank, his job security may depend on it. when Goldman boosted its bottom line
Goldman executives said they “see a by making private equity-style invest-
path” to generating a quarter of profits ments with its own capital.
from the division by the end of 2025. These holdings are disliked both by
AWM could contribute $4bn-$5bn in regulators, which force Goldman to hold
pre-tax earnings by then, John Waldron, a high amount of loss-absorbing capital
president, told the Financial Times. against them, and by shareholders who
That would be more than three times view them as volatile and unpredicta-
the $1.3bn the unit generated in 2022, ble. The bank is selling them down,
which was about 10 per cent of the from $64bn in 2019 to $30bn last year
bank’s total. Pre-tax earnings across with a goal of eventually disposing of the
Goldman have averaged $17.7bn during entire portfolio.
the past three years. The timing of the selldown has been
Investors have largely welcomed awkward: Goldman has suffered almost
Solomon’s latest plan, cheering the $500mn in losses and writedowns on its
focus on asset and wealth management equity investments this year, particu-
after years of losses from its six-year larly from its real estate holdings.
effort to become a digital retail bank. Sceptics doubt organic growth will
But the bank is in a race against time ever be fast enough to make the division
to show it can expand AWM fees quickly a genuine counterweight to the bank’s
enough to balance investment banking top-notch investment banking and
and trading, while Solomon, chief exec- trading businesses: Morgan Stanley
utive since 2018, has had to deal with supercharged its wealth strategy by
discontent among both rank-and-file buying ETrade and Eaton Vance.
employees and the executives displaced But Goldman’s record with acquisi-
in last year’s restructuring. CEO David Solomon has pinned hopes on the asset and wealth management division to improve Goldman Sachs’s stock market valuation — Brendan McDermid/Reuters tions has been patchy. The sale of online
Goldman Sachs has long been Wall lender GreenSky this month for 70 per
Street’s gold standard for trading and cent less than it paid 18 months ago is
investment banking. But the 2008 Morgan Stanley's growth in wealth and asset management Equity investments have at times made up a significant the latest example, even if executives
financial crisis and the regulatory opens up valuation gap with Goldman Sachs portion of asset management revenues at Goldman are more optimistic about the 2021
response to it have damped investor Price/book Revenues ($bn) acquisition of Dutch insurer NN Group’s
enthusiasm for these highly cyclical 5 investment management arm.
businesses in favour of a steadier stream 1.6 And more than a decade after Morgan
of management fees. Revenue without equity investments 4 Stanley made its move, competition in
Morgan Stanley moved to a wealth- 1.4 Total asset management revenue wealth management has increased, with
driven strategy in 2009 and has gener- Morgan Stanley 3 everyone from Citigroup to Charles
ated 58 per cent of pre-tax income from 1.2 Schwab trying to emulate its success.
asset and wealth management this year. 2 Goldman stands out by aiming for the
1.0
It now trades at 1.37 times its book Goldman Sachs richest clients, those with at least
value, says Capital IQ, while Goldman 1 $20mn, to Morgan Stanley’s target cus-
0.8
lags behind at about 1 times. 0
tomers’ $5mn-$10mn. Such clients
Solomon’s new strategy relies on the require white-glove service and can take
bank building up stable, fee-generating 2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2019 2020 2021 2022 years to woo, so growth will require the
business while unwinding billions in Source: Morningstar Source: Bloomberg bank to add to the ranks of its 1,000
proprietary investments to free up advisers, as well as support staff.
Goldman has also struggled to foster
collaborative ties both within divisions
capacity to do more for clients. The man and internal morale, and earnings and and across the bank at times. The pri-
charged with doing it is Marc Nach- compensation at Goldman overall are vate banking and wealth teams are
mann, one of Solomon’s trusted fixers, down. Three of the four people high- known in the industry for using screen
who previously boosted trading reve- lighted along with Nachmann on last protectors on their computers so col-
nues and was elevated to the position of year’s new organisation chart — includ- leagues cannot see anything about their
global head of asset and wealth manage- ing Julian Salisbury, chief investment clients.
ment during last year’s restructuring. officer, have gone or announced plans to “It’s a very dog-eat-dog culture,” said
Guidance that Nachmann gave to leave. a senior private banker at a rival.
investors earlier this year suggests Gabriel Denis, who analysed Goldman Attitudes towards the private wealth
AWM could account for about a third of for Morningstar before stepping down business have changed, insiders said.
the bank’s annual net revenues within last month, said: “Executive instability Historically investment “bankers
two years. In February, he indicated the is one of the primary characteristics we looked down on private wealth guys”,
division was aiming for pre-tax margins have observed from Goldman . . . Lead- said one former Goldman private
in the mid-20 per cents. Combined with ers come and leaders go and they all banker. Now, while the bank has been
Waldron’s profit figures, that translates have ambitious goals. It can be very “executing in the ultra-high net worth
to annual net revenue between $16bn tiring.” Denis added: “There are pockets space for a very long time . . . we have
and $20bn, compared with Goldman’s of strength, but overall they are just the benefit of internally having more of
three-year group average of $50bn. average.” a highlight on it”, said Kristin Olson, a
“It’s an exciting business because Goldman, with $2.7tn in assets under partner who heads alternatives within
you’ve got secular growth and a pretty supervision, is already very large in wealth.
fragmented marketplace when you traditional asset management. It has Still, industry competitors wonder
compare it to banking,” said Nachmann. also become a top-five alternatives whether enough has changed and
Bank leaders said AWM is hitting tar- operator during the past four years by whether AWM will ever be able to
gets ahead of schedule and building up banging together three different depart- expand fast enough to keep up with
their client offerings of “alternatives”: ments that were all investing in private Goldman’s investment bankers.
private credit, private equity and infra- markets. AWM “has always been ‘the other
structure funds among others. They business’”, said a very senior banker
argue that their relationships with who has worked at several rivals.
super-wealthy individuals position the
‘Executive instability is “Fifteen years ago it was 8, 9, 10 per
bank to benefit from a predicted rush one of the primary cent of earnings and they wanted to get
into alternative investments. it to 15, 20 per cent. That’s still true
But years of repeated reorganisations
characteristics we have now . . . They should accept they don’t
and turnover at the top of AWM have observed from Goldman’ know how to expand the business and
taken their toll on investor confidence hire a big cheese.”

Financials

Consulting firms freeze graduate starting pay


STEPHEN FOLEY — NEW YORK got considerably softer over the past 18 letters. The base salary for a candidate
to 24 months will get softer again before with an undergraduate degree is
The world’s most prestigious consult-
it starts recovering,” she said. $112,000.
ing firms have frozen US starting sala-
“Firms want to make sure that their Bain & Co offers the same, and BCG
ries for new graduates, as a war for
partners are retained by having suitably pays $2,000 less, according to Manage-
talent that sent pay soaring after the
high profits, and one way to do that is to ment Consulted. Signing and perform-
pandemic gives way to tougher compe-
put a brake on salary inflation and to ance bonuses can swell year-one pay to
tition for jobs.
stop starting salaries going up in a spiral $267,000 or more for MBAs and
McKinsey and BCG are among the firms like the last year or two.” $140,000 or more for undergraduate
holding salaries at 2023 levels for under- McKinsey pays a base salary of hires, it found. The firms do not publicly
graduate and MBA students taking up $192,000 for a new recruit from busi- disclose their pay.
positions next year, according to people ness school, according to Management Namaan Mian, chief operating officer
familiar with the matter. Consulted, a company that coaches stu- of Management Consulted, said that he
That stands in stark contrast with the dents through consulting firms’ inter- had seen no firm raising its base salaries.
situation a year ago, when firms raised view processes and tracks pay via offer “It’s the toughest, most competitive
salaries by the largest amount in more market I have seen in 10 years. You’ve
than two decades. The persistence of got fewer open spots this year and more
historically high inflation means the people applying for those spots because
real-terms value of a new consulting job of the flight to safety from investment
will be sharply lower next year. banking and tech.”
“It is the hangover after the party,” Some firms had asked their 2023 hires
said Fiona Czerniawska, chief executive to push back their start dates to 2024,
of Source Global Research, a consulting further slimming down the need for
sector analyst. Faced with declining cus- additional hiring on campuses this year,
tomer demand in some areas of their he added.
business, and pricing pressure across A person familiar with McKinsey’s
the board, consulting firms are trying to recruiting said that it was not unprece-
shore up profits by curtailing hiring and dented to hold starting salaries flat, and
holding down pay, she said. Reality check: McKinsey is keeping it had done so in about 10 of the past 20
“There’s a worry that a market that base salaries flat as growth slows years.
Monday 6 November 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 9
10 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 6 November 2023

COMPANIES & MARKETS

Mining Technology

Tech giants
BHP aims to settle over Brazil dam disaster pour billions
Joint venture faces alleged south-eastern state of Minas Gerais. It
killed 19 people and devastated villages
Brazil that settles everything,” said Cal-
luf, adding that negotiations were
Calluf said BHP hoped that a settle-
ment with Brazilian prosecutors would
BHP said it would “continue to defend
the UK action and denies the claims in
into cloud
liabilities in the tens of
billions of dollars
and swaths of countryside because of an
avalanche of mud that contaminated
“pretty advanced”. “If the right condi-
tions were there and the legal certainty
cover all outstanding legal cases: “We
believe that the London lawsuit is dupli-
their entirety”. It denied that a deal in
Brazil would mislead shareholders
capacity
hundreds of kilometres of waterways. and releases, we would be willing to do a cating efforts in Brazil.” because it was hard to know at the time
MICHAEL POOLER — SÃO PAULO In the wake of the accident, which deal by the end of the year.” Thomas Goodhead, global managing of the accident its full extent and effects.
HARRY DEMPSEY — LONDON ranks as one of the country’s worst envi- The executive declined to quantify partner of Pogust Goodhead, the law Calluf said BHP had discussed reach- CAMILLA HODGSON — SAN FRANCISCO
ronmental catastrophes, federal prose- the possible compensation bill but said a firm behind the claim, said that BHP ing a potential final settlement with
Amazon, Microsoft and Google parent
BHP, the world’s largest mining group, cutors filed a lawsuit demanding deal could also include further repara- seeking a settlement in Brazil amounted both Vale and Samarco, a 50-50 joint
Alphabet look set to intensify capital
has said publicly for the first time that it R$155bn ($32bn) in compensation from tion works. Brazil’s Federal Prosecution to “misleading” shareholders since a venture between the mining groups.
spending, as the world’s biggest cloud
wants to reach a final settlement over a Samarco and its joint owners, BHP and Service was not immediately available London court found in July 2022 that “Samarco is and will remain the pri-
computing groups build up capacity to
dam disaster in Brazil worth potentially the Brazilian miner Vale. for comment. BHP also faces a case in there was minimal overlap between the mary party at any settlement on this
serve the growth of generative artificial
tens of billions of dollars of liabilities. BHP’s vice-president for legal affairs the UK brought by 700,000 claimants British and Brazilian cases. issue,” said Calluf.
intelligence.
The Australian company is on the for the Americas, Emir Calluf, told the seeking compensation for harm to “The time has come for BHP to stop “BHP’s role, as well as Vale’s, is to sup-
hook financially for the collapse of a tail- Financial Times that it aimed to soon homes and livelihoods. Their lawyers attempting to cut sweetheart deals in plement resources that may be needed The Big Tech groups, which together
ings dam that stored mining waste at the come to an agreement with public estimated maximum potential damages Brazil, without the involvement of the for the company to fulfil the terms of a dominate the global cloud market, have
Samarco iron ore complex in November authorities in the South American of £36bn this year. A trial is scheduled victims, and to face up to its liabilities,” settlement — which will certainly be the boosted investment in computing infra-
2015, near the town of Mariana in the nation. “The idea is to get a final deal in for October 2024. he added. case here.” structure over the past few years.
Capital spending rose to a combined
$42bn in the three months to Septem-
ber, almost 20 per cent more than the
Market questions. Week ahead same period in 2021. That figure, which
comprises reported corporate capex
from Alphabet and Microsoft and Ama-

Eurozone retail sales set to fall amid low consumer confidence zon’s businesswide investment in prop-
erty and equipment, marked a 10 per
cent rise from the quarter to June. Ana-
lysts expect the pace of cloud-related
spending to accelerate next year.
Will consumer sentiment in the Executives from the companies said
eurozone remain bearish? last month that significant chunks of
Consumer sentiment in the eurozone capital spending were going towards the
has been in the doldrums for much of generative AI systems that required
the past two years and this is unlikely to huge amounts of computing power and
change when the latest retail sales data data-crunching. Amazon chief execu-
is published on Wednesday, despite an tive Andy Jassy predicted that genera-
easing of price pressures. tive AI would drive “tens of billions in
The volume of retail sales across the revenues”.
20 countries that share the euro is likely The three tech giants are vying to
to have fallen for a third consecutive increase their shares of the cloud mar-
month in September as high interest ket — the business drives Amazon’s
rates, falling house prices and a deterio- overall profits in particular — and must
rating economic outlook weighed on remain competitive in AI to hold on to
spending. their customers. Each wants to win new
National data published in the past
week showed German retail sales fell
0.8 per cent in September from the pre-
The rivals ‘have to
vious month, which looks set to more compete on generative AI
than offset 0.2 per cent increases in the
equivalent figures for France and Spain.
or they’ll lose relevance
Consumer confidence in the EU has and market share’
been dropping since August, and the
European Commission’s latest survey customers with a suite of state of the art
found sentiment among companies in AI tools and services, and use the tech-
the retail sector had “decreased mark- nology to enhance other core products.
edly” in October. The rivals “have to compete on gener-
“While consumers are worrying less ative AI or they’ll lose relevance and
about inflation than in early 2023, they market share”, said Jeff Pearson, manag-
are now becoming more concerned ing director at technology consultancy
about the overall economic outlook,” Slalom. “All that is going to require a tre-
said Holger Schmieding, chief econo- mendous amount of capex”, for equip-
mist at German investment bank Beren- ment such as servers and data centres.
berg. Bank of America analysts predict the
Separate figures to be published collective cloud-related capex of Ama-
tomorrow will detail how quickly the zon, Alphabet and Microsoft will rise at
price of goods produced by eurozone an accelerated 22 per cent next year to
companies fell in September, providing $116bn. This year they raised their 2023
a signal about how quickly inflationary forecast from no growth to 14 per cent.
pressures are easing in the bloc. A fur- Last year the companies’ combined
ther sharp fall looks likely after German Shoppers cross a Such a contraction “would put the UK monetary policy that has been needed Sentiment inflation, rising house prices and low investment increased 20 per cent from
producer prices fell 14.7 per cent in Sep- road junction in economy into the early stages of what to combat high inflation,” it added. unemployment suggest the economy is 2021 to $84bn, BofA said.
tember, the fastest annual rate since central Berlin. we think will be a shallow recession, Valentina Romei among at full capacity — meaning interest rates Microsoft is “ramping up” investment
records began. Martin Arnold Germany is set extending until the first quarter of companies should rise. Bullock, in her first public at the fastest pace to support “an uptick
to weigh heavily 2024”, said Sandra Horsfield, an econo- Will Australia’s central bank keep rates speech as governor, reiterated her pred- in AI workloads” and their broader
How is the UK economy coping under on eurozone mist at Investec. on hold for a fifth straight month? in the retail ecessor Philip Lowe’s view that the bank cloud business, said BofA analyst Justin
the weight of higher interest rates? economic data Horsfield’s forecast, which is in line The first Tuesday of November is a spe- sector had had a “low tolerance” for high inflation, Post. All three groups, however, were
Investors will look at the UK’s gross this week after with consensus, is marginally below cial day for Australians as it is the date of rather than changing tone on the bank’s “investing ahead of future revenues”.
domestic product figures for the third its retail sales that of the Bank of England in its the Melbourne Cup horse race, also ‘decreased aim to get inflation, currently 5.4 per Amazon’s quarterly investment fig-
quarter published on Friday for an indi- fell 0.8 per cent November monetary policy report. known as ‘the race that stops a nation’ markedly’ cent, back to the 2-3 per cent target. ures include assets for its retail business,
cation of how the economy is coping in September The bank expects that the UK econ- due its popularity. Gareth Aird, head of Australian eco- which it invested heavily in during the
under the weight of higher borrowing from the omy flatlined in the third quarter after Michele Bullock, the recently in October nomics at Commonwealth Bank, said he pandemic. Analysts said the fall in Ama-
costs. previous month growing by 0.2 per cent in the three appointed governor of the Reserve Bank now ascribed an 80 per cent chance of a zon’s third-quarter investments, com-
Surprisingly negative news could Jacobia Dahm/Bloomberg months to June. The bank also expects a of Australia, may be ready to play party 0.25 percentage point rise in interest pared with last year, reflected a pullback
prompt investors to adjust when they marginal 0.1 per cent increase in the pooper, however, as the board of the rates to 4.35 per cent on Melbourne Cup in ecommerce spending. Amazon said
think the Bank of England will start cut- final quarter and no growth in 2024. By central bank meets and decides Day and expected the bank to raise its its retail capex would fall this year while
ting interest rates, which is not priced in the third quarter of 2025, UK GDP will whether to raise rates or to hold for a 2023 and 2024 inflation targets as well. its cloud-related investment would rise.
until mid-2024. Economists polled by be only 0.9 per cent higher than in the fifth straight month. “For households on a floating rate Microsoft said AI-related demand
Reuters forecast that the UK economy same period last year, according to the Recent data on inflation and retail mortgage, another rate rise just before delivered an unexpected boost to cloud
shrank 0.1 per cent in the third quarter bank’s projections. sales have put pressure on the RBA to Christmas would further tighten budg- growth in the most recent quarter.
compared with the previous three “UK economic growth is slowing,” the take a more hawkish stance. Even the ets. And it would also send a clear signal Alphabet and Amazon were vaguer in
months. They also expect a 0.1 per cent BoE said. “Some of this slowing is likely IMF has waded in, saying that govern- that the tightening cycle is not necessar- their earnings reports about the impact
month-on-month drop in September. to reflect the impact of the tightening in ment spending on infrastructure, sticky ily over,” Aird said. Nic Fildes of their AI investment.

Profile. Hiromi Yamaji

Banker turned stock exchange boss is rattling Japan’s listed groups


the head of an exchange would so Europe (19 per cent of Stoxx Europe momentum beyond his tenure as JPX shortcomings, but now with a quarter of marketwide conversion remains a gar-
The regulator is exerting openly try to reform the behaviour and 600). But he will not stop there: once chief executive, which is expected to be Japanese above pensionable age and gantuan task.
complacencies of companies listed on it. companies have got their PBRs above at least four years. assets under pressure to work harder, Yamaji’s plan, which he explained to
‘unprecedented’ influence on That such an assault should be happen- the low hurdle of one, he says, they must Yamaji believes corporate Japan has even domestic funds are pushing for the Financial Times in a recent inter-
management to unlock value ing in Japan, where the exchange has keep pushing for higher valuations. historically been allowed far too much improvement. view, is to exploit actively the size of that
traditionally been passive and some For the bulk of his career, Yamaji was latitude and that management has not Speaking privately, asset managers huge bloc and use two aspects of Japa-
former chief executives have generally a high flyer at Nomura, Japan’s biggest been sufficiently focused on either good and financial executives in Tokyo, say nese business culture to do so.
LEO LEWIS AND DAVID KEOHANE
TOKYO used the role as a low-stress precursor to investment bank. Having entered the governance, efficient use of capital or that although the focus on PBR might be First, he will establish a “name and
retirement, is extraordinary. new millennium as its head of global raising their corporate value. Foreign simplistic — and the exchange, with its shame” regime by creating a rolling list
For Hiromi Yamaji, the clubhouse is not “To have a regulator exerting this investment banking, he continued to investors have always balked at those own PBR of 3.4, has said it is targeting of companies that have made stated
what it used to be. The former Nomura much influence on Japanese corporate rise though further international posts corporate valuations more widely — commitments to improvement, in the
banker and head of the Japan Exchange management is completely unprece- as Nomura made its disastrous acquisi- Yamaji’s push is working. hope of embarrassing those that have
Group (JPX) still plays golf with many of dented,” said Bruce Kirk, chief Japan tion of post-collapse Lehman Brothers. Some companies are responding by not reformed. Second, he hopes that
Japan’s most senior corporate leaders. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. Yamaji left in 2013 to run the Osaka launching share buybacks, selling non- corporate Japan’s tendency to fly in for-
But, he says, these days they are often “This really is a game-changer for cor- Securities Exchange. core assets and appointing independent mation means that once his push
furious with him. porate governance in Japan”. He then went on to head the Tokyo board directors. Those changes are achieves critical mass, all the companies
As many of the executives see it, an Early in his term as head of JPX, which Commodity Exchange and later the expected to pull in the kind of foreign will fall in line.
old friend has turned both on them and controls the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Stock Exchange. He arrived in capital needed to supercharge Japanese The crude mechanics of the name and
the corporate establishment he was (TSE), Yamaji pointed out that roughly April 2023 as chief executive of JPX with equities. The Topix, Japan’s main stock shame regime, which will be launched
once part of. The 68-year-old’s late half the companies listed in the top tier a decade of running markets. index, is up 20 per cent so far this year. on January 15, are currently referred to
career drive to get Japanese companies of the TSE have undervalued stocks, Executives in Tokyo are starting to The sum of buybacks and dividends across corporate Japan as “the list”. Eve-
to achieve higher valuations and call out with price-to-book ratios below 1.0. The wonder whether Yamaji could eventu- in Japan is close to an all-time annual- ryone can guess whether they will or
those failing to address the issue repre- PBR is a ratio that measures the market ally target a bigger issue: that there are ised high of ¥25tn, according to Morgan won’t be on it, but the mere threat of the
sents a form of disruption that nobody value relative to its book value. probably a good many companies on the Stanley. And the bank expects Japanese list is already having an impact.
expected. Yamaji’s stock response to He has made it his mission to signifi- TSE that just should not be listed at all. price-to-book ratios to hit an average of Yamaji said some of Japan’s top busi-
Japan’s corporate elite is characteristi- cantly reduce the proportion of compa- For now, Yamaji seems sanguine 1.8 by 2025, versus 1.4 at the moment ness leaders use their time with him at
cally succinct: “We didn’t target you, we nies with languishing PBRs, to bring the about the pushback he faces. The ques- and just 0.95 in late 2012. But with 2,200 the golf course to mutter a pre-emptive
target everybody.” TSE to levels closer to those in the US tion is if his push to unlock corporate Hiromi Yamaji says he receives companies listed on the Prime section apology if their price-to-book ratio is
It is rare, anywhere in the world, that (5 per cent of S&P 500 companies) and value in Japan can grow and sustain its apologies from corporate leaders and 3,800 on the TSE as a whole, a below one.
Monday 6 November 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 11

Age is no barrier
Why older people are jumping
on the start-up bandwagon
Z WORK & CAREERS

How to hire
the best for less { Workplace diversity:
class mobility is needed }
CEOs from the working class paid less than affluent peers
Estimated class pay gap* (£’000)

CEOs
Finance managers
Management consultants
Solicitors
Accountants
Academics
Police/fire/army
IT
Doctors
Social workers/welfare
Teachers
Engineers
-16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

Pilita Clark *The difference in pay between people in the same job who came from professional-managerial
backgrounds and those who have working class backgrounds

Business Life Source: The Social Mobility Foundation Note: 2022 data

I
Singing from the same hymn sheet is suffer a double disadvantage. They
Kenneth Andersson
one way to speed up interminable took 21 per cent longer to progress to
magine running a company that well as the non-cognitive abilities the researchers. Does it matter that it — typically by about 6.5 per cent — the meetings. But groupthink at senior senior roles compared with a 13 per cent
consistently attracts smart, skilled employers increasingly value: came from a country with a long following year. levels can be dangerous. The progress gap for men from similar
staff willing to work harder and perseverance, motivation, social skills. history of environmental action? You might say there is some justice complacency of the banking sector backgrounds.
longer for 15 per cent less than So what, if anything, does this mean Perhaps, though a 2021 survey by the in these firms paying a penalty, in the came crashing home during the 2008- Lack of talent and low productivity
what they could earn doing the for today’s business leaders? IBM Institute for Business Value form of higher wages, for being 2009 financial crisis. are not to blame, says Nik Miller, boss of
same job elsewhere. We already know that people are suggests the green wage gap exists well environmentally or socially harmful. Since then, UK ministers and the Bridge Group, a consultancy that
I’m talking about lawyers, more likely to accept lower wages for beyond Sweden. But there is also a darker side to the regulators have pushed companies to worked on both reports. A 2018 study
receptionists, HR employees and IT work they think is meaningful. It showed more than two-thirds of sustainability wage gap. improve diversity. Fairness aside, the of early career lawyers found more
workers. Jobs that exist in all sorts of The research that Krueger and his workers in nine nations including the It turns out staff in more sustainable aim is to reflect the wider society and state school-educated trainees received
companies across all sorts of sectors. colleagues have done suggests this US, China, Germany and Brazil were sectors work longer and more extreme cut risk while better understanding the highest performance ratings than
Sounds unlikely? Not if you believe includes environmentally meaningful more likely to take jobs with socially hours, often 50 or 60 a week. It is consumer needs. Campaigners have those who attended private school.
academics in Europe, who have work, and it puts a number on the and environmentally responsible possibly no accident, therefore, that focused on raising female and ethnic “Affinity bias” is often the culprit.
uncovered what they call the magnitude of the pay cuts. organisations — and nearly half would they also have more sick days and are minority representation on boards. Senior staff tend to help people in their
sustainability wage gap: notably lower But might the green wage gap be accept a lower salary to do so. more likely to end up in hospital. They have left class diversity own image to rise up the ranks. Project
salaries earned by people in more explained by something other than a So what exactly is an Still, I think the overall message here neglected. Socio-economic background allocation can be opaque. It may rely on
environmentally friendly firms. desire to save the planet? environmentally sustainable firm? is clear. Recruiting and keeping smart, is a greater block to career progression relationships made through alumni or
These employees earned between The research, yet to be published in Krueger and co used three measures: industrious staff is likely to be easier than gender and ethnicity, according to family networks.
9 per cent and 15 per cent less than a peer-reviewed journal, is based on an organisation’s greenhouse gas and cheaper, at least as far as wages are a recent study of nearly 150,000 Yet this is not well reported. The UK’s
similar workers doing the same job in highly detailed data from employers emissions; environmental scores from concerned, if a business is genuinely financial services staff for diversity Prudential Regulation Authority and
oil companies, mining groups or other and employees in Sweden, home to MSCI, the global index provider; and a environmentally sustainable. group Progress Together. Financial Conduct Authority are on a
less sustainable businesses, the Greta Thunberg and the flygskam, or survey of what people deemed to be an Pretending to be greener than you Similar research involving 16,500 drive to improve diversity in financial
researchers found. And interestingly, flight shame, anti-flying movement. environmentally sustainable industry. actually are, on the other hand, may be KPMG workers showed that staff from services firms.
the gap has widened since 2001. The richness of the data, which goes The sectors rated most sustainable in more fraught than you think. lower socio-economic backgrounds Proposals include requiring larger
“It is growing, which is consistent back to the 1990s, made it attractive to the survey included recycling, research A legal firm that, say, flaunts its took nearly a fifth longer to progress to firms to report on metrics such as
with the idea preferences for protecting and health. The least green included oil concern for the environment and the next level of seniority than affluent sexual orientation and religion.
the environment are strengthening “ Pretending your drillers, coal miners and carmakers. belongs to one of the ballooning peers. KPMG’s efforts to support other Reporting on socio-economic
over time,” says co-author Philipp company is greener Each of the three measures produced number of net zero lawyers’ groups will groups had paid off. Female or ethnic background would be only voluntary.
Krueger, professor of responsible the same finding: workers in firms with have a lot of disappointed insiders if it minority workers in general progressed There is a danger in diversity
finance at Geneva university. than it actually is may higher environmental scores, or lower also helps oil companies quash climate faster than the firm’s average. discussions that one metric is played off
The wage gap is also larger for be more fraught emissions, all earned lower wages. lawsuits. A firm taking on the climate The Progress Together study against another. But class divides must
workers with high cognitive skills, such Conversely, firms that suffered an lawsuits, on the other hand, may be showed that working-class women can not be left out of the debate.
as memory and problem solving, as than you think ” ESG scandal tended to increase wages enjoying precisely the opposite effect.

CROSSWORD
No 17,567 Set by BOBCAT
        ACROSS

1 Ongoing dispute affected disgruntled


seamen lacking form of ID (7,8)
 
9 Seemingly more aristocratic in the past
(7)
10 Theatrical assistant is one used to
display (7)
11 Current in hooter giving rise to
  interference (5)
12 Willing directors first capitalised
monopoly? (5,4)
13 Primarily, I’ve helped stop plight at sea
   (9)
15 Animals apparently half horse and half
seal (5)
16 Man follows dog going back to border?
    (5)
18 Fragrant stuff to rip up or combine in a
mix (9)
20 Replace last of clues in puzzle with leads
   
to balancing act (like tightrope walking) (9)
23 Cinders in thrall to It Girl? (5)
24 Reorganisation of NT group creates
opening on board (7)
25 Sort of out-of-body process beginning
  around six (2,5)
26 Cannibalistic suggestion that’s
impossible to decline? (3,4,5,3)
 DOWN

1 Relationship that’s not Platonic could be


Euclidean (7,8)
2 Perhaps Grace’s century’s not recognised
in Northern town (7)
JOTTER PAD 3 Hub of activity could indicate onset of
pandemonium (9)
4 Abandon vineyard in southern Belgium
Solution 17,565 (5)
5 Reprimand from communist for VIP’s
6 : - 2 3 / : , treatment (3,6)
3 + , / $ 1 ' ( 5 $ * $ , 1 6 Turn over and finish in reverse order (5)
$ 5 0 , ( : 6 7 7 Directions to Carroll’s quarry almost lead
6 7 ( 7 6 2 1 ) 8 1 ) $ , 5 to early capture (7)
0 / ( ( % $
8 Construct a new home in better area to
get classic view of the Thames (5,3,2,1,4)
6 + ( 6 8 % 7 5 $ & 7 , 2 1
14 Condition of organ pipe that is losing
6 6 $ 0 + ( power when blown (9)
6 8 6 + , 1 ( ( ( , * + 7 15 Cover up defeat admitted by 50% of
$ 2 $ 1 $ 5 government (5,4)
6 3 , 1 1 , 1 * 7 2 3 $ , 5 17 Rising tenor occasionally delivers a piece
+ 1 $ 6 3 2 that goes over one’s head (7)
$ 1 1 ( $ / 6 0 $ . ( + $ < 19 Hamburger, perhaps topped with a bit of
< $ : . ( $ , $ relish, is a tasty dish (7)
You can now solve our crosswords 21 Admit supporting British Queen and
( 6 7 ( 5 , ' ( 1 7 , & $ / in the FT crossword app at Premier once (5)
' ( < 1 . ( 6 6 ft.com/crosswordapp 22 Fancy ignoring a god in the Ring! (5)
12 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 6 November 2023

MARKET DATA

WORLD MARKETS AT A GLANCE FT.COM/MARKETSDATA


Change during previous day’s trading (%)
S&P 500 Nasdaq Composite Dow Jones Ind FTSE 100 FTSE Eurofirst 300 Nikkei Hang Seng FTSE All World $ $ per € $ per £ ¥ per $ £ per € Oil Brent $ Sep Gold $

-0.39% -0.744% -0.459% -0.14%


0.99% 1.16% 0.72% 0.02% 1.10% 2.52% 1.34% 1.036% 1.643% 0.76%
Stock Market movements over last 30 days, with the FTSE All-World in the same currency as a comparison
AMERICAS EUROPE ASIA
Oct 04 - - Index All World Oct 04 - Nov 03 Index All World Oct 04 - Nov 03 Index All World Oct 04 - Nov 03 Index All World Oct 04 - Nov 02 Index All World Oct 04 - Nov 03 Index All World

S&P 500 New York S&P/TSX COMP Toronto FTSE 100 London Xetra Dax Frankfurt Nikkei 225 Tokyo Kospi Seoul
4,360.45 19,820.22
15,197.40 31,949.89
4,258.19 15,070.22 31,237.94 2,403.60 2,368.34
19,034.81 7,451.54 7,417.73

Day 0.99% Month 3.11% Year 17.23% Day 0.99% Month 4.20% Year 3.01% Day -0.39% Month -0.88% Year 3.01% Day 0.30% Month 3.42% Year NaN% Day 1.10% Month 0.35% Year 15.50% Day 1.08% Month -3.92% Year 1.35%

Nasdaq Composite New York IPC Mexico City FTSE Eurofirst 300 Europe Ibex 35 Madrid Hang Seng Hong Kong FTSE Straits Times Singapore
13,448.19 51,812.54
13,219.83 50,732.69 9,293.90 17,664.12
1,750.83 1,759.15 9,157.70 3,155.10 3,143.66
17,213.87

Day 1.16% Month 2.99% Year 30.04% Day 4.07% Month 2.85% Year 3.15% Day 0.02% Month 0.59% Year 8.53% Day 0.36% Month 1.40% Year 18.11% Day 2.52% Month -0.65% Year 11.80% Day 1.98% Month -2.05% Year 0.06%

Dow Jones Industrial New York Bovespa São Paulo CAC 40 Paris FTSE MIB Milan Shanghai Composite Shanghai BSE Sensex Mumbai
34,082.24 28,674.83
118,108.68 3,107.32
33,119.57 6,998.25 7,052.08 3,030.80 65,226.04
113,419.04 27,490.81 64,363.78

Day 0.72% Month 3.28% Year 6.51% Day 2.66% Month 4.17% Year 1.07% Day -0.19% Month 0.72% Year 12.88% Day 0.69% Month 4.34% Year 26.29% Day 0.71% Month -2.56% Year 0.91% Day 0.44% Month -2.25% Year 5.65%

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Monday 6 November 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 13

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16 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 6 November 2023

WORK & CAREERS

Why more older people are founding start-ups


Research suggests in the UK tech hub of Cambridge,
believes there is a problem in the British
experienced founders are venture capital community.
more likely to succeed “There is a preponderance of subscale
VC funds that employ twenty-some-
despite investors’ biases, things and think about twenty-some-
writes Jonathan Moules thing founders,” she says. “I don’t think

B
you find that in the angel investor com-
munity but I think that is a potential
ernie Marcus launched bias in the system.”
Home Depot when he was 50. Eileen Burbidge, partner of early-
Donald Fisher had recently stage technology fund Passion Capital,
celebrated his 41st birthday says investors believe younger people
when he co-founded Gap with are more willing to take lower salaries
his 38-year-old wife. And though until a venture is profitable, and better
Steve Jobs was 21 when he unveiled able to handle failures. “Conventional
Apple’s earliest technology, it was not wisdom would say that once someone
until his fifties that he launched the has responsibilities such as a mortgage,
iPhone, transforming the company into partner or children, they might be less
one of the world’s most valuable. likely to take a leap of faith.”
When it comes to creating successful The complications of mid-life have
businesses, it pays to have a few grey proved challenging for Laura Harnett,
hairs. And, in the past decade, the trend who set up cleaning brand Seep when
for older people to create and run thriv- she was 42, after 20 years in consulting
ing ventures has accelerated. and senior executive roles at the depart-
Since 2020, the percentage of busi- ment store chain Selfridges. Three years
nesses founded by people aged 55 later, the company generates an annual
to 64 has increased in the US, the UK, £1mn in revenue, employs five people
France and Germany, according to the and is stocked by outlets such as Whole-
Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, an foods and Amazon. But Hartnett admits
annual measure of start-up activity. she struggles to juggle family responsi-
Founders aged 45-plus now account for Kay Miller was experience fortified our passion and our Yet older people to defy stereotypes — earlier. But his roles in investment and bilities with building the business.
between a quarter and a third of all new a headteacher knowledge,” she says. more so since the Covid-19 pandemic. as a chief financial officer proved indis- While older founders have more to
entrepreneurial activity. before she set up It also helped in times of adversity. “Making people work from home for pensable to the new venture. Without it, lose, there is evidence their risk is more
“The rise in the number of older a business Den Kit has grown to a company with long periods left many wondering he says, the pair may not have made likely to pay off. According to the 2018
entrepreneurs is about the growth in the selling outdoor revenue of £1mn and is stocked by big whether they might as well set up in vital business decisions — such as asking NBER study, a 50-year-old entrepre-
asset rich in this age group,” says activity kits for retailers. But it has battled rising costs, business,” says Hart. customers online to pay ahead of orders neur was almost twice as likely to have a
Mark Hart, deputy director of the children. Below: and sales have fallen as inflation has Husband and wife Ricardo and being commissioned, rather than look- runaway success as a 30-year-old. Expe-
Enterprise Research Centre at Aston Bernie Marcus, squeezed consumer spending. Since the Marina Larroudé founded their epony- ing only to investors for capital. rience in an industry was one of the best
University and GEM report author. who founded pandemic, the workforce of 14 has more mous New York-based shoe brand aged “We got friends and family to stump indicators of whether a person would
He sees “no lack of aspiration” among Home Depot at than halved. “We have fumbled through 42 and 41 respectively, after being up about $700,000, but that would not create a high-growth business, it found.
older founders. Many have enjoyed the age of 50 with pure determination,” Miller says. laid off from their jobs in finance and have been enough to get to where we are “People conflate the fact that some-
successful careers, with experience in Andrew Fox/FT The business was, and remains, profita- fashion in early 2020. Having emigrated now,” he says. “If we were younger, we ‘People one has a successful idea and they are
areas such as fundraising, and have ble. “It is that backing yourself, proba- to the US from Brazil, they were stuck might have gone out to raise several young,” says Jones, co-author of the
enough contacts to source seed backers bly because you have . . . been in diffi- inside with two young children and a million from investors and regretted it.” conflate report. “Some people are just good at
and hire dynamic founding teams. cult situations before.” long way from home. What they did According to GEM, Britain has that entrepreneurship, even when they are
When Kay Miller quit her job as a Older founders do face additional have, however, were thick contacts recorded the biggest jump in older young. What we found was that they
primary school headteacher at 57 to obstacles. Insiders say a prevailing books to source backers and customers. founders since the pandemic, with the someone also get better with age.”
build the Den Kit Company, selling out- mood among venture capitalists, partic- By May 2020 they had decided to percentage of businesses started by Hartnett felt she was “becoming
door activity sets for children, she drew ularly in tech, is that entrepreneurship launch Larroudé. By June they had their those aged 45 to 64 increasing from 25
has a a dinosaur” in her senior role at
on decades of experience seeing her own ability peaks in a person’s thirties. first set of samples for potential buyers. per cent in 2020 to 33 per cent last year. successful Selfridges. Her husband qualified as a
pupils benefit from outside play. “There’s this idea that young people are Ricardo, who had been an analyst at The average age of directors in British surgeon, so she was no longer the
Years of leadership gave her confi- just more likely to have more valuable Lehman Brothers and held senior roles tech start-ups is 40, according to private idea [with family’s main breadwinner. And
dence after she started the company as a
side hustle with a friend. “We’d been
ideas,” Benjamin Jones, strategy prof-
essor at Northwestern University’s
at Apollo Global Management and
Anheuser-Busch InBev, says he would
company data provider Beauhurst.
However, Sherry Coutu, a 59-year-old
being] a breast cancer scare gave her a fresh
perspective on life and its possibilities.
teachers and mothers and that life Kellogg School of Management, says. have liked to have started a business entrepreneur and angel investor based young’ “I just lost the fear,” she says.
Monday 6 November 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 17

WORK & CAREERS

The
Henry Mance
Interview

‘I hate the words


pro-Israel and
pro-Palestinian.
I’m pro-peace’
S U SA N N E I M A N

American philosopher criticises tribalist


politics and pushes for Jewish universalism as
the way forward to a peaceful resolution

Charlie Bibby/FT

O
ut of centuries of Jewish Einstein, Hannah Arendt and other really grabs me. I feel much closer to Centre for Antiracist Research raised erals and leftists need to join together.” an intellectual “who walked the walk”:
suffering have come two leading Jewish figures wrote to the New people from completely different back- $55mn but has now been criticised for Even so, the promise of universalism supporting the civil rights movement
contrasting philosophical York Times, criticising a future Israeli grounds who share my values than I do low academic output and management can feel naive at a time of war. “You say and refugees, and standing up to McCa-
impulses. One focuses on prime minister’s party as “fascist”. By to a whole bunch of Israelis.” She issues. “I’ve got to confess, sometimes it’s naive. Every other alternative is dis- rthyism.
the need for the Jewish contrast, “calling the Israeli far right fas- returned to Berlin in 2000. schadenfreude is pleasant,” she laughs astrous. The security concept of the How would Einstein deal with events
people to protect themselves against cist today would not just bring accusa- Neiman notes that figures on the far about the latter. She returns to what she state of Israel for most of its 75 years, today? “Sometimes you’re glad for cer-
inevitable attacks. It is supported by the tions of antisemitism, it would carry a right — the Alternative for Germany sees as urgent: proto-fascism in India, and particularly of Benjamin Netan- tain people that they died before they
biblical verses that urge Jews to remem- professional death sentence,” says Nei- party (AfD), Viktor Orbán in Hungary, Russia, Israel and the US. “While liber- yahu, just fell apart . . . All kinds of could see certain developments. He
ber the Amalekites, the tribe who once man. and Steve Bannon in the US — often als and leftists are arguing about pro- things have been seen as naive in the would see this as a disaster for everyone,
killed their ancestors. It is epitomised To many Germans, criticism of Israel strongly embrace Israel. She argues it nouns and cultural appropriation, the past.” Her style of philosophy is engaged and the result of a tribalism that he just
by the nationalism of Benjamin Netan- clashes with the paramount importance works as a cover: “as long as we support right share strategies . . . As in 1932, lib- with the world. Einstein, she notes, was didn’t share.”
yahu. given to remembering the Holocaust. To the state of Israel, we can’t be Nazis, but
The second emphasises Jews’ respon- many Jews today, universalism itself we can be as racist as we want to any-
sibility to other oppressed peoples. This feels hollow, when parts of the left have body else.”
was the tradition Susan Neiman shown little compassion for Jews’ own In the current war, European Com-
imbibed as a child in 1960s Georgia. She suffering. mission president Ursula von der Leyen
attended an Atlanta synagogue whose “ I ’m s c a r e d a b o u t r i s i n g has supported Israel’s government
rabbi supported Martin Luther King. antisemitism,” says Neiman. “But I more strongly than member states
When she was three, it was bombed, don’t think the way to solve the problem agreed. For Neiman, Von der Leyen rep-
most likely by white supremacists. She is to become more anti-Muslim. That is resents “a very mainstream German
recited Passover verses with her one direction that people are going in, approach: the way not to be a Nazi, and
mother, remembering those that urged particularly in Germany.” not to have inherited your parents’ or
Jews not to oppress strangers because Neiman is best known for her work on grandparents’ guilt, is to say ‘Israel,
they were once “strangers in the land of historical memory. In 2019 she wrote right or wrong’”.
Egypt”. “That was the central experi- Learning from the Germans, which Other voices are muffled. After the
ence of growing up — if you’re a Jew, you praised the country’s coming to terms Hamas attacks on October 7, the Frank-
care about social justice and the civil with its Nazi history. It documented furt Book Fair postponed a ceremony
rights movement.” how, after the second world war, (West) for the novelist Adania Shibli, seemingly
Now an outspoken philosopher, Nei- Germans saw themselves as victims, because she is Palestinian and her
man wants to reclaim Jewish universal- rather than accepting responsibility. award-winning novel includes abuse by
ism as a radical act. Israel’s war with From the 1980s, a new mindset took Israeli soldiers in 1949. Many pro-Pales-
Hamas has pushed the world to pick hold. Germany became “the first nation tinian demonstrations have been
sides. “People have, differently in so ever that put its crimes in the centre of banned in Germany, as in France, partly
many places across the world, become its national narrative”. Neiman con-
so tribalist. I hate the words pro-Israel trasted its state-backed self-criticism
and pro-Palestinian: they make it look with the US and UK’s reluctance to con-
‘I don’t think the way to
as if we’re talking about a football front their respective racist and colonial solve the problem is
match. I’m pro-peace.” pasts. Some said she overestimated the
She has the advantage of being able to sincerity of Germans’ contrition. to become more
invoke Albert Einstein. For 23 years, she Just as Learning from the Germans was anti-Muslim’
has led the Einstein Forum in Potsdam, sparking debate, Neiman started to
Germany, a research institute based at doubt its thesis. Germany’s historical
his one-time summer home. “Einstein memory came with a caveat. “The Ger- because of the risk of antisemitic
was a total universalist Jew . . . We do mans have decided ‘we are the perpetra- incidents and public disorder.
tor nation’, and the Jews are the victim Neiman is not impervious to that. She
nation. That leads to this statement that gave one of her twin daughters a
‘If peaceful means are ‘we stand for Israel on every occasion, Hebrew name; the other an Arabic
so vilified . . . what do right or wrong, and any criticism of name. Today, in their early thirties, both
Israeli politics quickly will veer into twins are being confronted about the
you expect young antisemitism, therefore we will only say war — by opposing sides. “This sense of
people to do?’ the mildest things’ . . . The United
States is the most powerful ally of the
hope that one could still have in the
early nineties is now so much in doubt.”
state of Israel, but Germany is the sec- She herself lives in Berlin near a
care about his politics and his biography ond.” neighbourhood with a large Muslim
because that’s why he became a cultural For Neiman, this crushed free speech. population. Friends have warned her
icon. The second half of his life, he spent After the German parliament declared not to go out at night, or even at all. “I
more time as a public intellectual than in 2019 that the Boycott, Divestment don’t know whether to be afraid or not.
he did working on physics.” and Sanctions (BDS) campaign against But I’m also worried about my Muslim
Einstein became convinced of the Israel was antisemitic, she and the heads neighbours and colleagues.”
need for a Jewish national home, but he of other cultural organisations wrote a Moreover, she worries that the Ger-
feared the cost if it came without peace. letter of objection. man right “is using what’s going on in
“Should we be unable to find a way to “I don’t support BDS, but I ask myself: the Middle East to raise new demands
honest co-operation and honest pacts BDS was formed as an alternative to ter- that we shouldn’t allow immigration,”
with the Arabs, then we have learned rorism, if peaceful means are so vilified even though official data shows 80 per
absolutely nothing from our 2,000 years and have no impact, what do you expect cent of antisemitic incidents in Ger-
of suffering and will deserve our fate,” young people who have grown up in the many are committed by rightwingers.
he warned in 1929. occupation their entire lives to do?” Neiman’s struggle is not just with the
Today Neiman echoes Einstein’s con- It turned into her “first real shit- right. In her book Left Is Not Woke, pub-
cerns. “[Netanyahu’s] policies are creat- storm”. The organisations were accused lished this year, she chastises the left for
ing anger and frustration all over the of antisemitism. A large project that she abandoning Enlightenment ideals.
world, they will rebound on Jews, see had been working on for two years “was Wokeness, she argues, runs counter to
Dagestan [where an antisemitic mob suddenly cancelled”. the Enlightenment’s commitment to
stormed an airport].” The “carpet The experience continued Neiman’s universalism and justice and its belief in
bombing . . . of Gaza is not in Israeli ambivalent relationship with Germany. progress. It is defined by reducing peo-
interests, even if you just care about She first lived in Berlin for six years in ple to the most marginalised parts of
Jewish lives.” the 1980s, experiencing a place where their identity, whereas, for Neiman, “it’s
She strives to see the mistreatment of being Jewish was so rare and where the way less important to me that I’m a Jew
Jews and non-Jews through the same Holocaust was “just in your face all the than I’m a universalist.”
eyes. “Discrimination and oppression of time . . . I didn’t think it was a place Black Lives Matter “started as a very
any group of people on the basis of their where one could raise a normal Jewish universalist movement”, but ended up
ethnic heritage is racism.” She con- child, and I left, mostly for that reason.” “a tribalist movement about ‘more
demns Hamas’s “pogrom” against She spent the 1990s in the US and power for our people’”.
Israeli Jews and the ensuing “pogroms” Israel. In Tel Aviv, she hoped to contrib- Neiman doesn’t shy from arguments.
against Palestinians in the occupied ute to the peace process, but even in the Sucking on a cigarette, she attacks her
West Bank. period’s relative optimism, she felt “a academic opponents including Steven
Yet a strong universalist commitment nationalist undercurrent. I realised that Pinker, the evolutionary psychologist,
faces a difficult context. In 1948, there’s no form of nationalism that and Ibram X. Kendi, the author whose
18 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 6 November 2023

ARTS

South Asian miniatures are


shown alongside modern
works they inspired in a
surprising show in Milton
Keynes, writes Maya Jaggi

A
poster-painter up a ladder
daubs a likeness of a Bolly-
wood heroine on a cinema
facade, oblivious to a riot-
ous mob, cudgels raised,
stripping a man below the waist to
determine his religion. The chillingly
counterpointed scenes, in blood reds
and livid greens, are in “City for Sale”, a
large-scale oil painting by the Indian
artist Gulammohammed Sheikh. Made
in Baroda, Gujarat, in the early 1980s as
pogroms against Muslims engulfed his
home state, the artist’s anguished
wake-up call has hung largely unseen in
a backroom of the Victoria and Albert
Museum in London until now.
The monumental painting is among
the surprising works on show in Beyond
the Page: South Asian Miniature Painting
and Britain, 1600 to Now, at MK Gallery
in Milton Keynes until January 28 (then
at The Box in Plymouth). Curated by
Hammad Nasar and Anthony Spira, this
rare exhibition juxtaposes exquisite tra-
ditional miniatures from sacred and
Chronicle of empire, power and art
secular texts (some so light-sensitive
they can be shown only once every 10 epic the Hamzanama. Yet the hot colour- in the catalogue, as the artist, in his own from “The delivery of presents for Mughal portraits superimposed with
years) with modern and contemporary fields of Hodgkin’s small oil-on-wood words, discovered “treasure after treas- Prince Dara-Shikoh’s Wedding” (c1640) the artist’s passport photo. Karkhana
works they inspired, from sculpture to abstract paintings rather invite compar- ure”. His large urban canvas might seem are poignantly detached from their gifts. (2003), a collaborative series of 12 small
film and installation. ison with Rajput miniatures placed to owe nothing to the tiny, intricate Artistic homage often proves ambiva- paintings, was inspired by, and named
A complex story of art, imperial nearby: “Radha and Krishna” landscapes and interiors on the hand- lent. Rashid Rana’s irreverent “I Love after, the Mughal workshops. Qureshi
power and cross-cultural encounters (c1730-35), attributed to Manaku, with made paper known as wasli. Yet their Miniatures” (2002) appears to be a pixi- and five other Lahore alumni each
emerges through 180 works, tracing beetle-wing cases glued on as emeralds. multiple scenes in a flat plane, with lated portrait of a Mughal emperor, but added elements before couriering the
how a courtly tradition that flowered in In the catalogue essay Emily Han- frames that draw in the viewer and ele- is a digital composite of advertising bill- works on around the diaspora. Recur-
Mughal, Rajput and Deccani royal nam, adviser to the exhibition, writes ments that spill out of borders, pose boards — mocking the viewer’s expecta- ring images of stamps and maps reflect
workshops before the 1700s still capti- that there are “tens of thousands” of beguiling alternatives to Renaissance tions of both work and artist. Repurpos- anxiety about a post-9/11 world where
vates and challenges cutting-edge art- such works in public collections in Brit- fixed-point perspective. ing princely art, Qureshi’s painting “The travellers are harassed at frontiers.
ists (of various heritages) today. ain. The show’s radical premise is that As Sheikh noted, such art, stemming Artist’s Younger Brother” (1995) por- The Order of Things, a section that
The first of five thematic sections south Asian miniature painting is an from a world in flux, demands of the trays his sibling in profile in retro mauve shows the work of Company School nat-
begins with sumptuous folios from the “important but overlooked area of Brit- viewer an “active participation rather uralists alongside ironic rejoinders, has
Padshahnama (1656-7), its processional ish art history”. While East India “Com- than cool contemplation”. By contrast, the fruit of another collaboration. In The
elephants splendid in watercolour and pany School” artists pandered to Euro- Akhlaq was more fascinated by minia-
A courtly tradition that Gardens of England (2017-23), David
metallic paint. This Mughal chronicle pean tastes, the mass export of highly tures’ formal aspects, deconstructing flowered before the Alesworth, a British artist who lived in
was gifted to King George III as British portable historic works — as diplomatic them in acrylic paintings such as “Unti- Pakistan, worked with Shakila Haider, a
power waxed in India. Some folios are gifts and purchases or as plunder — tled (2)” (1990): a gestural blue horse 1700s still captivates and Lahore-based miniaturist, to reverse
by signed artists such as Murar, who
portrayed himself in a corner. The
nourished European art yet sundered
generations from a vital inheritance.
viewed through a window frame.
Akhlaq created a seminal department
challenges cutting-edge the coldly classificatory gaze. Among
watercolours based on Alesworth’s pho-
Dutch artist Willem Schellinks copied Both Sheikh and Pakistani artist Top: section of Nusra Latif Qureshi’s in 1985 at the National College of Arts in artists today tographs are surreally clinical images of
another album (also studied by Rem- Zahoor ul Akhlaq studied at the Royal ‘Did You Come Here to Find Lahore (founded by Rudyard Kipling’s “exotic” flora in Milton Keynes.
brandt) for his drawing “Shah Jahan College of Art in the 1960s, and were History?’ (2009). Above: ‘Prince father) that still nurtures stellar alumni. flairs. Yet the Liverpool-based Singh Similarly, the ethnographic floating
hawking” (c1657-60). William Morris astounded by the V&A’s originals after Khurram on his return from the Among those on show is Imran Qureshi, Twins’ “past-modern” style both heads of “Forty-one portraits” (c1780-
and the avid Indian miniature collector muted reproductions at home. Sheikh’s Deccan’ (c1636) by Abdul Hamid globally renowned for his large-scale adheres to and expands tradition. In 1800), made in West Bengal, are subtly
Howard Hodgkin hymned the Persian work “changed in London”, Nasar writes Lahori — Royal Collection Trust installations. The red splatter and gold “Because You’re Worth It? II” (2022), a subverted in Ali Kazim’s tenderly
leaf of his painting “Blessings Upon the digital fabric lightbox that impugns con- observant Children of Faith (2023) series,
Land of My Love” (2011) reference both sumerism and ecological disaster, death and Abbas’s Every Color (2022): tiny por-
terrorist violence and traditional hunt- rides a composite elephant made of traits of transgender Lahorites painted
ing scenes — notably “Wild animals are brand logos. on silk. Appearing to peep through the
let loose” (c1840), with its blood-red, The most compelling section com- cloth, these faces force the viewer up
almost floral spray. bines portraiture with politics in the close in an act of intimacy and recogni-
In the intimately panoramic “The wake of the September 11 attacks. Nusra tion that speaks volumes about the min-
Scroll” (1989-90) by New York-based Latif Qureshi’s “Did You Come Here to iature’s enduring power.
Shahzia Sikander, another Lahore Find History?” (2009), a nine-metre
alumna, a woman in white wafts scroll of digital prints, is a disturbing, To January 28, mkgallery.org. In Plymouth
through interiors. Such feminist fragmented palimpsest of Venetian and February 17-June 2, theboxplymouth.com
reclaiming echoes throughout the show.
In Hamra Abbas’s resin sculpture “Les- ‘Lessons on
sons on Love” (2007-8), a moustachioed Love’ (2007) by
prince makes acrobatic love while Hamra Abbas
Rob Harrie
grasping a hunting rifle — an absurdist
lampooning of martial values and
courtly erotica.
Abanindranath Tagore pioneered the
neo-miniaturist “Bengal School” in the
1900s, whose anti-colonial thrust also
finds echoes. Sikander’s “The Explosion
of the Company Man” (2006) defaces a
colonial officer in a diptych resembling
an outsize album. Abbas’s four-panel
installation “All Rights Reserved”
(2004) raises ironic questions about
ownership and access with reference to
King of the World, a selective 1997 tour of
the Padshahnama (now owned by King
Charles III). In her take, the bearers

When misinformation spreads like a virus


fever pitch during the Covid-19 from stoking a culture war over one of
PODCASTS pandemic. In 2010, 12 years after that the most life-saving inventions of the
first press conference, Wakefield was modern era. There’s a flavour of Jon
Fiona struck off the UK medical register by the Ronson’s podcast Things Fell Apart in the
Sturges General Medical Council which found
he had acted dishonestly; that same
way Mostrous chases down the origin
story of a divisive topic and seeks to
year, The Lancet retracted his paper. By understand the battles that have shaped

T
this time, Wakefield was living in Texas today’s fractious discourse.
and making a living on the speaking Also like Ronson, who makes a point
wenty-five years ago, in circuit through which he attracted an of trying to understand his subjects
advance of a paper being ever more devoted following. rather than pass judgment, Mostrous
published in the medical Many listeners will know Mostrous takes an empathetic approach towards
journal The Lancet, a panel from Sweet Bobby, the hit true-crime Wakefield’s supporters, particularly the
of researchers including series about catfishing, and he brings parents of autistic children, many of
gastroenterologist Andrew Wakefield the same rigour and storytelling flair to whom were desperate for an
gave a press conference at London’s this story of a man who made a career explanation. He is less sympathetic,
Royal Free Hospital at which they raised though certainly curious, about
the possibility that the MMR (measles, Wakefield, who thrives on criticism; the
mumps and rubella) vaccine was linked more his reputation takes a beating, the
to autism. Wakefield’s advice was that more he casts himself as a victim of a
parents should give children the three conspiracy between the media, big
vaccines separately. Stories soon began pharma and the medical establishment.
appearing in the press featuring parents A chill runs down the spine as
who claimed their children had been Mostrous reveals how Wakefield, once a
damaged by the MMR jab. Vaccination fringe figure, not only won over
rates started to drop and measles cases celebrities including Jim Carrey, Robert
rose. For Wakefield, it was the start of a De Niro and Elle Macpherson (whom he
new phase in his career as a prominent briefly dated) regarding concerns about
figure in the anti-vax movement. vaccinations, but found a fan in former
In Dr Anti-Vax, a three-part podcast US president Donald Trump, who
from Tortoise Media, the journalist invited him to one of his inauguration
Alexi Mostrous tells of the rise of balls. Not for nothing does Mostrous tell
Wakefield and his role in a broader us at the start: “If the anti-vax
movement against vaccines which, movement is burning out of control, this
amplified by social media and guy is the original fire-starter.”
politicians trying to foster anti- Andrew Wakefield talks to reporters
establishment credentials, reached at the General Medical Council, 2010 tortoisemedia.com/audio/the-fall
Monday 6 November 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 19

FT BIG READ. EUROPE

Brussels is trying to devise a new competitiveness strategy amid fears of being left behind by the US and
China. Fixing the bloc’s longstanding economic problems will need unprecedented co-operation.
By Henry Foy and Ian Johnston

The EU’s plan to regain its edge


W
hen the heads of cab- had carte blanche to do what they
inets of the EU’s 27 com- wanted,” says one official who partici-
missioners huddled in pated in critical meetings where deci-
the Belgian countryside sions were taken to effectively relax the
in late August for their rules given the unprecedented crises.
back-to-work retreat, all were invited to “Some of the French and German
talk about what they thought should be actions were outrageous in terms of
the priority for the autumn. state aid. And the single market is now
The standout theme was clear and really, really frayed,” the official adds.
unexpected. “People mentioned ongo- But commission officials defend their
ing support for Ukraine, but it wasn’t decisions on state aid given the threat
top of anyone’s list,” says one person they say is posed by the US’s green subsi-
present in the room. “Everyone, over dies, which they say could prompt an
and over again, kept on coming back to exodus of EU companies across the
competitiveness, and fixing the state Atlantic if Brussels is not able to at least
of the EU’s economy.” compete with the cash handouts on
Three weeks later, Ursula von der offer from Washington.
Leyen, the commission president, took Such was the panic around the threat
to the dais in the European parliament posed by the IRA that the commission
in Strasbourg and delivered her annual has been in more than six months of still
State of the Union speech, a laundry unresolved talks with the White House
list of past accomplishments and future over how to give EU companies access to
ambitions for the EU’s executive some of the subsidies.
branch. “The rules of the game have changed.
The headline announcement was a Pressing economic security concerns,
surprise initiative: former Italian prime energy politics and subsidy races have
minister and European Central Bank compounded our competitiveness chal-
chief Mario Draghi was returning to the lenges,” says Donald Ricketts, chair of
fray to write a report on the state of the corporate advisory company Fleish-
EU’s competitiveness and how to fix it. manHillard’s EU office. “The defining
While acknowledging “the birth of a question for Europe will not just be how
geopolitical Union”, citing support for countries adapt their current operating
Ukraine and a tougher line against models, but whether their answers are
China, von der Leyen dedicated around collective or national.”
a third of her speech to reshaping the
EU’s economy. Finding consensus
“We need to look further ahead and Before Draghi and Letta, there was a
set out how we remain competitive,” she third Italian technocrat who sought
said, introducing Draghi by rehashing to fix the ailments afflicting the EU’s
his 2012 declaration that is seen as the competitiveness. That was more than
turning point in the eurozone sovereign 12 years ago. Mario Monti, who would go
debt crisis. “Because Europe will do on to become prime minister of Italy
‘whatever it takes’ to keep its competi- just over a year after presenting his
tive edge.” report in May 2010, set out 12 recom-
The headline numbers are stark. The mendations to relaunch the single mar-
EU economy, in dollar terms, is 65 per ket. This led to several proposals but, in
cent of the size of the US economy. a telling indictment of the EU’s ability to
That’s down from 91 per cent in 2013. acknowledge its weaknesses but inabil-
Per capita, US gross domestic product is ity to address them, few were actually
more than twice the size of the EU’s, and implemented.
the gap is increasing. A suggestion to develop a “European
Drill down into the details and the professional card” to enable workers’
story is the same. Take the list of the glo- qualifications to be recognised across
bal top 20 technology companies; or the the EU — key to making the internal
world’s top universities; or semiconduc- market more integrated — was intro-
tor manufacturing capacity: Europe lags Former Italian prime minister, Enrico Letta, is prepar- field and free competition, which has and pledging new laws that would ‘The duced for just six professions in 2016.
behind. prime minister ing a separate report on the state of the been very, very important until now.” reduce “by 25 per cent” the reporting But it has not been expanded beyond
Longstanding structural issues Mario Draghi internal market, due in March. regulations at an EU level for compa- challenge this select few groups.
Disunity in the union
undermining the effectiveness of the
EU’s single market, which is theoreti-
has been asked
by the European
Letta, the president of the Jacques
Delors institute, has embarked on a tour One moment of truth for the EU was
nies. now is to Brussels has also failed to implement
the recommendations of more focused,
cally supposed to make 27 individual Commission and of European capitals to, as he puts it, in the early 2000s, when the internet State aid unleashed corral all smaller internal reports. In 2020, the
markets into a single frictionless one, its president “come out of the Brussels bubble to technology boom created dozens of To some member state diplomats, the these commission published a “communic-
have been compounded by years of Ursula von der listen to worries on the ground”. major US conglomerates but hardly biggest challenge to the bloc’s competi- ation on single market barriers” that
crisis. The Covid-19 pandemic, which Leyen (below Europe’s dilemma is preserving the any in Europe. In the decades since, EU tiveness has not been long-term trends countries identified several issues relating to
bled into Russia’s war against Ukraine, right) to strength of the single market, and the companies have failed to come even or the inexorable rise of external rivals. services, goods and free movement.
pushed up energy prices and costs. compile a report freedoms of movement, capital, goods close to the likes of Apple, Alphabet or Instead, the threat comes from internal which have “If we implemented this 2020 report
Demographic pressures and educa- on the state of and services, while competing with Amazon, or challenge the scale of decisions made in the heat of crises. had two or on barriers there would be really signifi-
tional bottlenecks have created a skilled the EU’s America, China, India and others, says Chinese rivals such as Alibaba. The Covid-19 pandemic and then cant progress in this area,” says Ieva
labour shortage. And there is a burden competitiveness Letta. “How do we push on the power Now EU policymakers are very con- Russia’s war against Ukraine posed three years Valeškaitė, vice minister of innovation
of red tape and bureaucracy that small and how to fix it
FT montage; Getty Images
button while developing the four cerned that the next technology revolu- threats to the EU’s economy, society of doing for Lithuania. “But the commission
and medium business owners and EU freedoms and not destroying the spirit tion — in artificial intelligence and and physical borders that Brussels had chose . . . to find another way to write a
diplomats both say crushes growth of the four freedoms? Because we want quantum computing — will similarly never before experienced. what they report. It kind of adds to the pile.”
potential. to work on European sovereignty, on a pass Europe by and further widen the Von der Leyen responded by assum- want Finding political consensus for the
“There needs to be seriousness [in new industrial policy, on a strong capac- gulf with the world’s two economic ing a more external-facing role than necessary reforms proposed by Draghi
Brussels] about fixing the single mar- ity for Europe to flourish and be power- superpowers. any of her predecessors, taking unprec- back into and Letta is likely to be the toughest
ket, because you cannot just talk about
it as the ‘crown jewels’ of the union with-
ful,” he says.
The desire for Europe to compete
Part of the reason for that gulf, say
officials and analysts, is a question of
edented control of the commission’s
power levers, and promising a “geopolit-
formation’ challenge for any competitiveness over-
haul, EU diplomats warn.
out treating it like that,” says Markus with the US, China and emerging powers scale and of failing to fully realise the ical” commission that would see Europe The state aid explosion has given
Beyrer, director-general of Business like India, makes it “easy to destroy potential of the EU’s population of throw its weight around more than ever. member states, particularly richer ones,
Europe, which represents business what we have built”, he adds. That is in 450mn — a group larger than the US “This geopolitical commission means the incentive to keep the rules as they
lobby groups from across the EU. “Peo- Letta’s view, “this idea of a level playing population of 332mn. Another part is a it hasn’t been an economic commission, are. “The challenge now is to corral all
ple don’t understand at the moment lack of co-operation between EU inno- and there’s also a lack of natural inter- these countries which have had two or
how important it is . . . both the general Economic growth in the EU has been slower vators, companies and finance from est and competence in economic three years of doing what they want
public and policymakers. than in the US and Japan across the 27-country bloc. areas at the top of the machine,” back into formation to work in uni-
“We will need to find a narrative and a Both are about the failure of the single says one senior EU diplomat. son,” says one official involved in
Real GDP (1973=100)
way to make it exciting again,” adds market to truly function as one entity, “Which means areas like competi- negotiations between EU capitals.
Beyrer. “Because the real technical work Global US Japan EU* rather than 27 individual markets tiveness, single market, etc, The most far-reaching impact of
is unexciting, to go through all the regu- 500 bridged by various agreements but held haven’t been taken care of.” both Draghi and Letta’s reports will
400
lations, and the barriers, and work out 300
apart by national bureaucracy, protec- To support the fight against Covid probably be on the priorities of the
the things that would reverse the nega- 200 tionist policies and poorly implemented and the war against Russia’s invasion next commission, which will start
tive trends.” 100 EU rules. of Ukraine, Brussels threw the eco- work in 2025. It is unclear whether
At the same time, efforts to help the 1973 80 90 2000 10 23 Every industry has its bugbears. nomic rule book into the fire. Rules on von der Leyen will remain in office as
EU weather the worst short-term * Current composition throughout Retailers say barriers are ultimately hit- the permissibility of state aid and president.
impacts of the twin Covid and Ukraine ting consumer prices. Ahold Delhaize, a national subsidies were lifted and EU Whoever runs the Berlaymont from
crises have created medium-term risks. The productivity gap between the EU and Netherlands-based supermarket active oversight of its members’ deficits and 2025-29 will be expected to take on
An outpouring of state aid and finan- other developed economies has widened across seven European countries, told debts were suspended. many of the two Italians’ recommend-
cial support from Brussels to European Labour productivity per person employed the Financial Times in May that it regu- The EU’s state aid rules were drawn ‘Some of the ations when drawing up the legislative
companies has radically altered the (constant 2022 $’000*) larly noticed different purchase prices up to protect poorer states with less focus of that term.
“level playing field” between countries US Mature economies EU27 Global on branded products made in the same fiscal firepower from the richer states French and Letta is set to present his report in
and their businesses once guarded as
the central pillar of the single market.
150
factories but sold in different countries.
Top of the list of corporate gripes,
that would otherwise be able to pump
cash into their national champions and
German March during the Belgian presidency of
the Council of the EU, a role that passes
100
EU state aid expenditure rose from 50 alongside a shortage of skilled labour give them an unfair advantage. actions from country to country. Belgium has
€102.8bn in 2015 to €334.54bn in 2021. 0 and high energy prices, is the regulatory That, say some officials from mainly were pledged to use its six months starting in
Between March 2022 and August this 1990 2000 10 20 23 burden imposed by Brussels, says southern and eastern countries, is January to focus on competitiveness
year, Europe approved €733bn in state * At purchasing power parity Beyrer. Many cite an increasing number exactly what has happened. Govern- outrageous and the single market. Hungary, which
support, according to unofficial com- of reporting restrictions they face as ments in countries such as Germany will follow in July, has said it will do the
mission figures seen by the FT. Staggering increase in EU state aid part of the bloc’s “Green Deal” — a push and France, in the name of economic in terms of same. They will have the job of selling
That push has been exacerbated by a Total state aid by EU27 countries (€bn) to rapidly transition the EU to environ- stability, have given their own compa- state aid. the reforms to capitals.
desire to speed up the continent’s green mentally-friendly technologies. nies the financial clout to outcompete In commissioning the Draghi and
transition away from fossil fuels and to
400
“‘Let’s cut red tape!’ they say, and their EU rivals, trampling on the safe- And the Letta reports, the EU has shown a will-
invest in new, low-carbon technologies. 300 then a day later pass a new set of due guards of the single market. single ingness to acknowledge the problems
It is also a response to competing 200 diligence legislation,” says one senior Of the €733bn in state support that facing its competitiveness. But remedy-
programmes such as Joe Biden’s $369bn EU diplomat with a smile and a shrug. Europe approved between March 2022 market is ing the situation — and catching up with
100
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and In her State of the Union speech, von and August this year, Germany now really, ever more competitive rivals — will
longstanding state support offered by 0 der Leyen acknowledged this com- accounted for almost half. require far greater political will.
Beijing to Chinese rivals. 2000 10 20 plaint, promising that each new piece of “All of the states did some pretty really “Europe needs an overhaul,” says one
As such, while Draghi assesses com-
petitiveness, another former Italian
Sources: The Conference Board; European Commission
EU legislation required “a competitive-
ness check by an independent board”,
strange things during the pandemic and
the war, and basically all realised they
frayed’ economy official inside the commission.
“Root and branch.”
20 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 6 November 2023

The FT View
The great American spending spree
the gloomy economic backdrop — 18 the US Federal Reserve’s tightening. The Though the hangover. The latest confidence data
Pay growth, savings and months of high inflation, rising interest lowest paid Americans have experi- jobs market showed that while buying plans for
rates and plenty of uncertainty. enced the strongest pay growth too. items such as cars, homes and appli-
‘fomo’ help the US economy What explains the robustness? Bank Many have also tapped into savings
is cooling,
ances had fallen, as expected with high
defy a gloomy backdrop of America thinks a phenomenon that it accumulated during the pandemic, employment borrowing costs, vacation intentions
calls “funflation” is responsible. It notes which were bolstered by government and wages have were at their highest since 2020.
As the pumpkins, sweet-wrappers and a greater willingness to spend on live stimulus checks. This has driven stellar held up better Generational preferences are a factor.
ghostly garbs are cleared away, forecast- entertainment and experiences, stem- spending on electronics, furniture and than expected A recent survey by Experian, a credit
ers expect American Halloween spend- ming from pent-up demand, savings home equipment since 2020. Mean- despite the scoring company, found that around 60
ing bills to have broken records. The and changing consumer preferences. while, the prevalence of long-term per cent of young Americans — the so-
average shopper was projected to spend Indeed, over the summer, the dual fixed-rate mortgages has sheltered Federal called Gen Z and Millennials — would
$108 on sweets, costumes and decora- release of movies Barbie and Oppenhe- homeowners from higher rates. Reserve’s prefer to spend money on “life experi-
tions during this trick-or-treating season imer, dubbed “Barbenheimer”, became There are signs of strain. Consumer tightening ences” now rather than save. As they
— with total expenditure set to exceed one of the biggest openings on record, confidence has dipped, partly on the age, they will exert a greater influence
$12bn. But even before the October 31 despite scepticism over the cinema back of higher gasoline prices. Credit on spending patterns.
festivities, it has been clear that the US industry’s prospects following Covid-19. card delinquency rates are rising, lock- Yet, targeted social media marketing,
consumer is experiencing a sugar rush. Morgan Stanley estimated that Barben- down savings are being drained, and the rapid growth in celebrity fan bases via
America’s economy grew at a 4.9 per heimer and concert tours by Taylor student loan repayments are back, after apps such as TikTok, and the faster
cent annualised rate in the third quar- Swift and Beyoncé added $8.5bn to the a three-year pause. Higher interest rates online transmission of the “fomo” effect
ter; the fastest since 2021. With con- US economy in the third quarter. will bite more in the coming months and suggests that demand for experiences —
sumer spending accounting for two- But consumer resilience comes down squeeze spending on goods, and services including travel, concerts and dining out
thirds of the economy, much of the to more than the “fear of missing out” — which account for the bulk of per- — could be more intergenerational and
jump is down to a surprise shopping on the buzz surrounding box office sonal consumption. price inelastic than economists expect. If
spree. Retail sales registered their sixth- events. Though the jobs market is now Beyond the inevitable Fed-induced that is indeed the case, the Fed will need
straight month of growth in September. cooling, employment and wages have economic slowdown, “funflation” could to add another one to the list of potential
ft.com/opinion The resilience of the US consumer defies held up better than expected, despite prove to be more than just a pandemic long-term inflationary pressures.

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it comes to development UK sick pay regime is no longer fit for purpose


Law firm gender progress
is not quite what it seems
Your article on efforts to improve the
Your article “Is the UK workforce really and found workers are more likely to infectious illnesses into the office. gender balance in law firms (Work &
Ben Hickey off sick?” (Report, November 1) get injured in a manual occupation It doesn’t need to be this way. Careers, October 30) rightly points out
suggests the Office for National with low sick pay. One study of cancer Increasing sick pay and introducing it that law firms are “notoriously quiet”
Statistics’s unreliable data is giving the patients found higher numbers were from day one would enable workers to about how profits are divvied up
Bank of England a headache. likely to exit their job after a period of rest and return to work safely, to the among partners.
Let’s hope it is temporary given the treatment due to inadequate sick pay. benefit of employers and the wider Yet the issue for women partners
context of rising mental health Mental health charity Mind economy. runs deeper, as many big law firms
challenges and long-term health separately found that mental problems Chancellor Jeremy Hunt should take have a two-tier structure with some
conditions in the wider UK workforce. get far worse when workers are forced the opportunity to get this right in this partners holding equity and others
But the evidence of the harm done to take time off on the UK statutory month’s Autumn Statement. holding no equity.
by the inadequate statutory sick pay sick pay rate of just £109 a week. Other Amanda Walters In our recent study of 167 top US law
regime is clear. US research points to a lack of sick pay Director, Centre for Progressive Change firms (co-authored with colleagues
A recent study by WPI Economics causing a rise of contagious Leader, Safe Sick Pay campaign from the HEC Paris business school),
reviewed the international evidence presenteeism with workers carrying London E1, UK we found that firms may recruit more
females to match the gender-parity
expectations of prospective clients but
In Modi’s India, we see the ESG critique and The this often shows up only in the non-
equity ranks of two-tiered firms. So
grow enough to keep their families peaceful transfer of power Boss’s onstage patter while such two-tiered firms may use
David properly fed, let alone send their kids
to school.
Author Nitasha Kaul (Opinion,
October 30) overstates her claims that
May I question some of the logic
employed by Professor Aswath
gender diversity to help their
competitive position with clients, this
Pilling Aubrey Hruby, a seasoned investor
in Africa, advocates the intense use of
India’s electoral bond system is having
a pernicious effect on its democracy by
Damodaran in his interesting article
“ESG is beyond redemption and
often occurs without disrupting what
we termed the “top echelons” of the

Y
technology to release agriculture from entrenching the power of Narendra deserves to RIP” (Markets Insight, partnership.
its subsistence stranglehold. African Modi and his Bharatiya Janata party October 25). A second study of mine also showed
ou could call it “the cult farmers, she says, typically cultivate (BJP). He challenges the narrative that says that this increase in female non-equity
of the small”, the idea less than two hectares and produce In reality, the ruling government in that the incorporation of partners was not mirrored in the hiring
that small enterprises and gross value added of about $2,000, New Delhi is anything but a environmental, social and governance of new female associates, which often
smallholder farmers are one-fiftieth of the average American centralising autocracy. The BJP has thinking into an investment portfolio lagged behind, and the research
the backbone of poor farmer. The “cult of the smallholder witnessed an erosion in its control of may increase returns without suggested that firms, in signalling their
economies, the key to social resilience farmer”, she says, is as damaging as state governments over the past five materially elevating risk. In short, he values to clients, may substitute pro
and the best hope for eliminating pov- the cult of the micro-entrepreneur. years. At its peak in March 2018, the writes that “if an asset is less risky, it bono work or racial diversity for
erty. You see it in the emphasis on China’s economic miracle was built BJP and its allies were governing 21 should have lower expected returns”. gender diversity.
microloans, small businesses and on moving unproductive farmers into Indian states, encompassing 70 per While this is conventional wisdom it is So the cautious counsel in evaluating
funding community projects. factories. Research by the African cent of India’s population and more not always true. law firms’ claim of progress in
These interventions are all very Centre for Economic Transformation, than three-quarters of its area. Since To take a contemporary example: promoting more women to partners is
well. Safety nets, telephone banking an Accra-based think-tank, shows then, Modi’s coalition has experienced investors in UK gilts or US Treasuries akin to the advice law firms often
and rural roads can help the income how African economies have failed to a cavalcade of electoral defeats, most Citroën 2CV releases tiny amounts are today benefiting from much higher provide to clients: pay close attention
prospects of the very poorest. By some do this. Many not only score poorly recently in Karnataka, home to the of rubber dust compared with EVs returns than were available a year ago. to the fine print.
estimates, small and medium enter- but are going backwards. Acet’s meas- tech metropolis of Bengaluru. Has risk increased concomitantly? Well Lionel Paolella
prises account for 80 per cent of ure of economic diversity fell by The BJP alliance is now in power in certainly the rating agencies do not Associate Professor, Judge Business School
Africa’s economic output. But the cult almost 6 points between 2000 and only 16 states, covering less than half flexibility to prevent the inappropriate seem to think so. University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
of the small needs a corrective. Africa 2020 while export competitiveness the country’s population and land public capital allocation we have Separately the article propounds a
needs to think big. failed to rise over that period from a mass. The peaceful transfer of power, witnessed for too long. dubious “everything is nothing” Let’s needle the professor
In cities across the continent, a dismal 13.8. On average the top five the cardinal feature of a democracy, is Glenn Nielsen argument. “The truth is that ESG
“micro-entrepreneur”, as the develop- exports of African countries account alive and well in Modi’s India. Copenhagen, Denmark scores today measure everything — on his cavalier claims
ment jargon has it, might just be the for a dangerously concentrated 70 per This is far from the rhetorical consequently they measure nothing,” Professor Willy Shih (“What the
owner of a tanning works, a metal- cent of the total. sophistry of Professor Kaul’s assertions Hold dementia at bay, the he says. Or again, he writes that “as for ubiquitous syringe tells us about US
bashing business or a tile-making fac- Successful Asian and Latin American of a majoritarian political project G(overnance), its presence in ESG has supply chains”, Opinion, October 31)
tory. More likely she is a woman dodg- economies built complex industrial subverting the nation’s democratic Marshall McLuhan way always been puzzling, since it replaces says he is willing to spend a dime (10
networks. They were sometimes linked values. Your “Glimmers of hope in tackling the original notion of corporate cents) more on every medical syringe
to raw materials like Chilean copper or Nathan Punwani dementia” editorial (FT View, governance, where managers are to maintain a domestic US supply of
If the antidote is Malaysian palm oil, but often to an edu-
cated workforce, reliable infrastruc-
Scottsdale, AZ, US November 1) is more than a glimmer.
An easy way to avoid the onset of
accountable to shareholders, with one
where managers are accountable to all
the product. One would think it passing
strange for a Harvard professor of
big and complex, ture and deep pools of savings. A radical idea for keeping horrible brain cells decline — a stakeholders, effectively making them management to be so cavalier with the
the African continent In Africa, Lesotho and Mauritius condition that shows up as a slowing accountable to none of them.” multiplicative effect of very large
developed competitive textile indus- a lid on public debt recall of word sounds from brain stores This viewpoint is at best debatable numbers. For his suggestion would
is not doing well tries, Ethiopia established a shoe and Gita Gopinath’s opinion piece on how — is literally in front of our eyes. That is and at worst meaningless. increase US healthcare costs by $1mn
apparel industry based on home-pro- fiscal policy in many countries is on an to read briskly, out loud, and for some May I as an alternative quote Bruce each day ($3.65bn in a decade), with no
ing traffic with a tray on her head hawk- duced leather and Benin is trying to unsustainable path (Opinion, October hours each day. Springsteen, recalling how the “Boss” appreciable improvement in health
ing food to a tiny four-wheel-drive- transform raw cashew nuts into items 27) suggests a minimum corporate tax Many years ago I read in Canadian once introduced a live performance of outcomes. At this price it would appear
owning elite. Or a man with a that can go on a supermarket shelf. rate and a more efficient wealth tax is philosopher Marshall McLuhan’s The “Born to Run”: “Remember that in the that a national emergency stockpile
“shoeshine business” consisting of a But such efforts are too few. the way to achieve more balanced Gutenberg Galaxy book that medieval end nobody wins unless everybody would be a far cheaper alternative. A
rag, a broken box and half a tin of shoe If the antidote to small is big and public finances. medics claimed that, to enhance blood wins.” one year supply would cost roughly
polish. The region’s cities are full of peo- complex, the continent is not doing It is a fact that Switzerland, as a circulation to and from our hearts, Simon Rostron $550mn, but since stocks would be
ple with no formal jobs, hustling for a well. There is not a single African com- confederation, is governed in a reading out loud was as good as Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK rotated into the market to avoid
living. They are survivors who work pany in the world’s Fortune 500. Still, decentralised way with internal walking. I experimented. I put a little expiration, after the initial outlay the
long hours scrabbling together a pit- there are bigger businesses than meet competition, including in areas such as pulsimeter on a fingertip and, sure Headline shocker real cost would be paying for the
tance. If Africa’s future depends on the eye, many family-owned. McKin- taxation. Despite this, there is a enough, immediately up went my pulse storage.
their labour, then Africa is in trouble. sey listed 400 African companies with significant difference in the tax rate by 20 per cent as I read out loud. I am a long-term subscriber and Guy Wroble
No amount of access to finance is going annual revenue above $1bn in 2018. structure between the cantons in The brisker I read, the higher it went. admirer of the FT’s journalism. This is Denver, CO, US
to turn such “enterprises” into the Yasmin Kumi’s African Foresight Switzerland, and Switzerland is, Furthermore, in accordance with why I was shocked to see the headline,
building blocks of a modern economy. Group has a database of 2,000 compa- despite this, an exceptionally McLuhan’s “the medium is the “Police Shoot Veiled Woman in Paris Deux Chevaux owner’s
Paul Collier, author of The Bottom Bil- nies with revenue of $20mn-$100mn. successful country on several message”, it will happen independently Train Station” (Report, FT.com,
lion, says of the transformative effect of More are needed. So is aggressive important and decisive measures. of what we are reading and whether October 31). Ulez refund plea
complex businesses: “Companies per- competition law to ensure they do not It is also a fact that Norway recently the words are on screens or pages. It This headline implied the woman My 602cc Citroën 2CV is rightly
form a productivity miracle by organis- rest on their laurels or gouge custom- increased its wealth tax and several precludes and slows brain was shot because she was wearing a penalised under London’s ultra-low
ing workers to reap gains from scale ers. Policies required to facilitate job- wealthy Norwegians as a consequence deterioration of the precise sort that veil and the police action was somehow emission zone rules for having a
and specialisation.” The roadside hus- creating businesses are not the normal decided to leave Norway. shows up as faulty recall from cells that racially motivated. primitive carburettor, which costs me
tler is neither specialised nor produc- development fare. They involve tasks My point is that every economic store word sounds. There is nothing in the story that £12.50 every time I drive it. But the car
tive. To romanticise such an atomised like rationalising electricity supply, decision has consequences that need to Medics recommend that we maintain follows that suggests she was shot only weighs 560kg and has very skinny
workforce is to accept poverty in perpe- deepening capital markets, reducing be carefully evaluated by asking “and social interaction to preclude because she is wearing a veil or that the tyres. So reading the guest column by
tuity. If many urban jobs are so unpro- capital costs through establishment of then what”. Remedies may differ from dementia. That works by getting us to veil is even important to the story, but the CEO of Emissions Analytics
ductive, perhaps people should stay in pension funds, channelling develop- country to country. What I would exercise the recall of words as we listen yet this is a main feature of the (“Forget Dieselgate — ‘tyregate’ is a
the countryside? That was the view of ment into large-scale businesses and suggest, instead of a one-size-fits-all and talk or sing. We can’t organise headline. bigger emissions scandal”, Opinion,
Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria’s former nurturing professionally run farms. solution, is that it should be social interaction 24/7. But we can get In fact, while the lead paragraph says October 31), I wondered does this
president, who told young people “to go A starting point may be jettisoning constitutionally determined that a that exercise by reading briskly, out the woman was shouting “jihadi mean I can get a refund due to the tiny
back to the farm”. romantic notions that smallholder sitting government was automatically loud, 24/7 to our heart’s content, slogans” — really they were threats, not amount of rubber dust I create, at least
But the life of most smallholders is farmers and micro-entrepreneurs are removed from power with a ban on including while sitting or lying in bed slogans — the fact that she told those compared to the dust from a toxic
less Thomas Hardy and more John the route out of poverty. They are not. holding public office for a given period when outdoors walking isn’t possible around her she had a bomb and they 2-tonne electric car that is “2,000
Steinbeck. Without irrigation, ferti- Their existence in large numbers is the thereafter if the public debt and the due to work, location, weather, road or were going to die is not revealed until times greater than the mass of particles
liser, modern seeds or tractors, pro- definition of poverty itself. annual deficit on the public finances other neighbourhood factors. the fifth paragraph! from a modern exhaust pipe”?
ductivity across the continent is dis- exceeded a certain level. Joseph Foyle Peter Schwartz Patrick Uden
mally low. The poorest farmers can’t david.pilling@ft.com It would create accountability and Dublin, Ireland London NW3, UK London NW1. UK
Monday 6 November 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 21

Opinion
A battle looms between world leaders and bond vigilantes The Kremlin’s
stance on Israel
MARKETS
tion spending splurges. But if the money
flows too freely, the newly alert vigilantes
where the deficit has nearly doubled
from its pre-pandemic trend to around
rate and showed fiscal restraint through
the pandemic. But many state leaders
tion and higher rates. Since then, the
vigilantes have targeted nations all over reveals problems
Ruchir
Sharma
will show up to spoil the fun, selling off
the nation’s bonds and currency. Many
governments, having run up massive
6 per cent of GDP, the largest deficit
among major developed countries.
South Africa is also at high risk. It has
have of late been engaging in a game of
competitive populism. If prime minister
Narendra Modi’s party suffers setbacks
the world. They helped force UK prime
minister Liz Truss out of office, by sell-
ing off the UK’s bonds and currency in
at home
debts during the pandemic, are particu- an unpopular candidate for re-election in this month’s state polls, then he too response to a budget-busting tax
larly vulnerable to these attacks now. managing a widening deficit and a large may feel compelled to step up spending scheme. They compelled two old popu-

A
Battles are most likely in nations where share of government bonds — 25 per cent on popular schemes. Meanwhile, Mex- list warhorses, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of
leaders are under the heaviest pressure — owned by foreigners. Facing power ico’s deficit is rising rapidly towards 5 per Turkey and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Alexander
n epic clash is brewing in to increase spending, because their own outages and rising inflation, President cent of GDP, the highest since the 1990s, Brazil, to embrace fiscal restraint. Baunov
2024. In a boom year for popularity is so low. The rub: that is most and the popular president, Andrés Erdoğan shelved bizarrely unorthodox
elections, with national countries. I track polls in 10 developed Manuel López Obrador, is passing on the policies and appointed financial market

O
contests from the US to
India, incumbents seeking
and 10 developing countries; approval
ratings have fallen over the past year in
In a boom year for elections, problem to an untested successor. While
several frontier economies from Ghana
veterans to restore investor confidence.
Notice the pattern. Financial markets
another term will be tempted as always three out of four, and the median rating is incumbents will be tempted to Sri Lanka have been forced over the are now so large, dwarfing any national n October 29, several thou-
to ramp up public spending before the now just 45 per cent in developing coun- to ramp up public spending past couple of years to cut spending as economy, that the vigilantes usually pre- sand angry men stormed
vote. That puts them on course to col- tries, and a near-record low 36 per cent they faced bankruptcy, their leaders will vail. Leaders take them on at their own the airport at Makhachkala,
lide with the global bond vigilantes who, for the 10 developed countries. before the vote find it increasingly hard to stay the risk. In the US, where complacency is capital of Dagestan in Rus-
reawakened from a long slumber by the Bond vigilantes, usually triggered by course in an election year. high and many seem to think the global sia’s mainly Muslim north
new era of high interest rates, will be inflation, will also be quick to act in Cyril Ramaphosa’s approval rating fell No country is immune. Going back to investors will never tire of buying Ameri- Caucasus. They were looking for Jews
quick to punish profligate politicians. countries where a free-spending leader nearly 10 points in the past year to just at least 1960, research shows, leaders can debt, it’s worth pondering the fate of believed to have arrived from Israel. The
As I noted early this year, ballots in is making a bad fiscal situation worse. over 40 per cent, and the country’s deficit have often raised spending or cut taxes the losers. Brazil, Turkey and the UK police seemed inactive, much like during
more than 30 nations will offer a say to Six leaders face a 2024 election in coun- has tripled since the 2000s to more than to improve their re-election prospects. changed their wayward ways under vigi- Yevgeny Prigozhin’s abortive mutiny in
two out of every three adults in the demo- tries where the deficit has been rising 5 per cent. Recent steps to restrain spend- In recent decades, they tended to get lante pressure and are so far better for it. June. In a second Dagestani city,
cratic world — a record year of voting steadily and is now in what many bond ing have also shifted it to targets likely to away with it. Borrowing costs were so Taking on the bond vigilantes is mostly a Khasavyurt, a mob searched for Jewish
since data collection began in the early investors would consider a danger zone please voters, such as higher public cheap through the 2010s that bond losing battle but that won’t stop many refugees allegedly placed in local hotels.
1960s. This historic pageant of democ- — above 5 per cent of gross domestic wages, and public debt is still growing. investors looked the other way, except politicians from trying. In Karachay-Cherkessia, protesters
racy will be an occasion for parties to product. They range from India and India’s risks are partially offset by the in extreme cases like Argentina. That demanded the eviction of all Jews from
indulge in their usual tactic of pre-elec- Bangladesh to South Africa and the US, fact that it has a higher economic growth changed in 2022 with the return of infla- The writer is chair of Rockefeller International the republic. In Nalchik, also in the north
Caucasus, a Jewish cultural centre under
construction was set on fire and antise-
mitic graffiti scrawled on its walls.
Matt Kenyon
As happened after the Prigozhin
mutiny, Vladimir Putin appeared to

AI and the woes have temporarily lost control. This


time, it occurred in the Caucasus, where
Putin’s rise to power began with ruthless
military campaigns. In both cases the
explanation is the same: enthusiasts

of surveillance attempt to help the government carry


out its policy more decisively, as they
interpret it. With the Wagner group, this
meant fighting Ukraine with full force.
With the Dagestani mob, it meant

capitalism
openly supporting Palestinians in defi-
ance of the west and Israel. The current
war in the Middle East is not the first
during Putin’s long rule, but the conse-
quences are different. The reason lies in
Russia’s fundamentally changed foreign
and domestic policy.
After 9/11, Putin was the first foreign
son for that is that “you can’t regulate leader to phone his US counterpart,
BUSINESS what you don’t understand,” says Tim George W Bush, to express his condo-
O’Reilly, CEO of O’Reilly Media and visit- lences. Twenty-two years later, after
Rana ing professor of practice at the UCL Insti-
Foroohar tute for Innovation and Public Purposes.
In a paper on rents in the “attention
economy” released last week with Mari-
This war in the Middle East
is not the first during

A
ana Mazzucato and Ilan Strauss, O’Reilly
argues that “the more fundamental Putin’s long rule, but the
rtificial intelligence has been problem that regulators need to address
at the centre of the global is that mechanisms by which platforms consequences are different
conversation in recent days, measure and manage user attention are
with a major summit in the poorly understood.” For O’Reilly and such metrics are proprietary and would executive order has provisions that monopoly suits. There’s an argument to Hamas’s attack on Israel, Putin was care-
UK and a new executive his co-authors, “effective regulation allow third parties to game their systems would force AI developers of “dual-use be made that we need a bit less focus on ful, even ambiguous, in his words, even
order from the White House. Much of the depends on enhanced disclosures.” if they are known. But, as current anti- foundation models” — meaning those Terminator-style worst-case scenarios though Israel has not joined western
discussion has centred on how compa- Set aside AI for a moment and con- trust cases involving Big Tech companies that could be used for either military or for AI and much more specific economic sanctions against Russia and has limited
nies and regulators might prevent futur- sider the metrics used by giant search aim to demonstrate, such parties, along civilian purposes — to provide updates to data disclosure to curb the new technol- its aid to Ukraine. One reason is that the
istic disasters triggered by AI, from engines, ecommerce platforms and with customers, have been hurt them- federal government officials on security ogy in the here and now, before it has war against Ukraine has changed Russia
nuclear war to a pandemic. But there’s a social media companies to monetise selves. The trouble in gauging harm is testing. Such testing would have to be already gained too much power. For so much that it has a different approach
real time problem that’s getting far less attention. These include the number of that so much about digital business mod- “robust, reliable, repeatable and stand- example, White House proposals don’t to the Arab-Israeli conflict and domestic
attention: how to insure that AI doesn’t users and the time they spend on a site, els and how they work is opaque. And ardised.” The US Department of Com- deal specifically with immediate eco- antisemitism. By disputing Ukraine’s
eat everyone’s economic lunch. how much they buy and in response to this is even more true when we shift the merce is tasked with developing stand- nomic harms such as the use of copy- right to exist, Russia is acting as the arbi-
I’m not referring just to the AI-related which ads, the ratio of organic clicks to focus to large language models and gen- ards for detecting and labelling AI-gener- righted data in training models. ter of and successor to the Soviet and
job disruption that may be coming ad clicks, how much traffic is sent to out- erative AI. While their operational mod- ated content. There has been a robust debate about tsarist empires. Their legacy includes
down the road. That, at least, is a known side sites, the volume of commerce in a els are different to those of search engines It’s a good start but it’s not enough. how to balance safety and innovation friendships with Arab states, directed
challenge. I’m talking instead about the given industry and what percentage of or ecommerce, they do also depend on White House deputy chief of staff Bruce when it comes to AI. If the commerce against Israel and the west, and unofficial
way in which AI will both replicate and fees go to third party sellers. user attention and algorithmic authority Reed, who led efforts on the executive department is smart, it might use the antisemitism in Soviet institutions that
increase the problems of surveillance Any surveillance business model will And as the regulatory conversations of order, told me last week that “we wanted executive order as a lever to force AI marked out domestic opponents in eth-
capitalism. By this we mean the way in make use of these key metrics. And yet, the past few days have shown, these are to do everything we could with the tools developers, which include many large nic and cultural terms. This is not to men-
which user data and attention is control- as the authors note, it is only the more poorly understood, both alone and in that we have” and the administration platforms, to open up their black boxes tion the pogroms of the late tsarist era.
led and monetised by a handful of large traditional financial metrics that are relation to each other. The White House hopes the order will “help build consen- and show us how these businesses really In foreign policy, this legacy manifests
technology players who are able to reported regularly and consistently in sus around what we can do.” That might work. That would be a step towards iden- itself in the Kremlin’s attempts to rally
extract economic rents that are dispro- public documents. This results in obfus- include Federal Trade Commission cases tifying key metrics for a public disclosure countries against the world order under
portionate to the value that they add.
As any number of antitrust actions in
cation because those financial reports
are “almost completely disconnected
We need less focus on on AI monopoly power; the order explic-
itly calls for a “fair, open and competitive
scheme — a must for good regulation. We
failed to come up with a better account-
the banner of anti-westernism and anti-
imperialism. Inside Russia, it labels crit-
the US and Europe show, we have yet to from the operating metrics that are used Terminator-style scenarios AI ecosystem”. ing system for surveillance capitalism. ics of the war, many of whom went
tackle this problem in areas like internet to actually manage so much of the busi- and more on economic But 30 years after the advent of the Let’s not make that mistake with AI. abroad, including to Israel, as insuffi-
search, digital advertising and social ness.” consumer internet, Big Tech platforms ciently patriotic. The Kremlin sees ordi-
media, let alone AI. A big part of the rea- Companies will, of course, argue that data disclosure themselves are only now facing major rana.foroohar@ft.com nary people in and outside Russia as
having a natural hostility towards liber-
als, gay people, intellectuals and politi-
cal, cultural and financial elites, as well
as imbued with a certain antisemitism.
After the failure of Russia’s blitzkrieg
West must not prevaricate when it comes to seizing Russian reserves attack on Ukraine in early 2022, the
Kremlin became consumed with the
idea of opening a second front. It tried a
gas front against Europe last winter, and
a grain front stoking fears of world food
Canada, uniquely, has done), and were to react to seizure by pulling out Other large reserve holders do at least fit to join the EU. It would also set a salu- shortages and migration crises. It hoped
ECONOMICS endorsing prominent lawyers’ argu- their reserves, that horse would have have an alternative to the west, namely tary precedent, suggesting that a coun- for a flare-up over Taiwan, or domestic
ments that Moscow has no legal already bolted on at least two occasions: to place their official savings in China. try that flagrantly attacks the interna- political problems in the US. Now that a
Martin recourse against asset seizures after its the blocking order itself, and the G7 That would come at an economic cost: a tional order cannot expect to enjoy its second front has opened in the Israel-
violations of international law. announcement that accounts will not be non-convertible currency is no choice protections. Hamas war, Moscow may hope to pro-
Sandbu That this is not happening reveals the unblocked until Russia compensates for prudent reserve management. Nor Other economic arguments are har- pose a bargain to the west: “We’ll help
legal qualms as vicarious arguments for Ukraine for its destruction. would it make much sense politically. boured in private. One goes: Europe you get out of the mess in Palestine, you

W
more self-interested objections to sei- Yet IMF data shows no subsequent However hypocritical or self-serving knows from its history that exacting help us do the same in Ukraine.” This
zure. The most important is the fear shift of reserves out of the western fold. emerging countries may find the payments from a defeated wartime foe accounts for a Hamas delegation’s visit
ithin days of Vladimir that confiscating Russia’s assets will Where would they go? The largest west, surely no one believes Xi Jinping can make things a lot worse. A hundred to Moscow on October 26.
Putin’s full-scale assault make other non-western countries pull is less tempted to weaponise financial years ago, war reparations imposed on However, Russia’s decision-making is
on Ukraine, western their own reserves out of the west, in dependence. Germany were so large that attempting too degraded for its leaders to use such
capitals acted with
remarkable determin-
case one day the same treatment could
be meted out to them.
Deploying these The only realistic prospect is that non-
western economies decide not to accu-
to pay them destabilised the German
economy.
opportunities. They are in the grip of
destructive emotions, obsessed with
ation in blocking Russia’s access to more The concern is that this could destabi- assets for Ukraine’s mulate such large reserves in the first But the transfer problem does not grievances and fixated on revenge. This
than $300bn of foreign exchange lise the global financial system and in benefit is morally the place, and marginally diversify those apply today. Russia’s reserves are accu- reduces their ability to play a construc-
reserves. In the 20 months since, how- particular diminish the dollar’s and the they retain. There is some sign of the mulated surpluses from the past. Tak- tive role in the Middle East. While con-
ever, the western sanctions coalition has euro’s captive investors among central obvious next step former. In 2022, global reserves fell by 8 ing them would not require the Russian ducting its aggressive geopolitical game,
got itself into ever more contortions bank reserve managers. The European per cent in dollar terms before recover- economy to produce impossible sur- the Kremlin has overlooked the conse-
trying to avoid the morally obvious next Central Bank has issued a strong warn- reserves belong to Beijing, and reflect ing somewhat. Excessive surpluses pluses in the future. Call it the Weimar quences at home. Its intense anti-west-
steps: seizing the reserves and deploy- ing to European policymakers against accumulated Chinese trade surpluses being a source of international instabil- fallacy: there is no parallel here to the ern sentiment has generated violence in
ing them for Ukraine’s benefit. even taxing EU companies making with western commercial partners. ity, this is not something to fear. And Versailles treaty’s mistakes. the north Caucasus which contradicts
The ostensible justification is legal windfall profits on blocked Russian Claims on the west will remain denomi- slow diversification is bound to happen That such thoughts circulate is a sign of the image of domestic harmony that
obstacles. But if those were really the assets — which seems the most that the nated in western currencies and gov- anyway as the global economy changes. the west’s unreliable intentions. However Putin aims to project.
reason for such timidity, western gov- sanctions coalition is currently willing erned by its laws. If Beijing wanted to The supposed cost of seizing Russia’s the war ends, calls to treat Russia “rea-
ernments would have been doing all to contemplate. sell out of western assets altogether, it reserves, then, is limited. It must in any sonably” will suddenly multiply. All the The writer is senior fellow at the Carnegie
they could to overcome them: pursuing The argument looks superficially would struggle to find alternatives. The case be held against the economic gains. more reason to seize its reserves now. Russia Eurasia Center, Berlin and visiting
compensation claims under existing sound. But it unravels upon a closer look rest of the world is too small to house the They include giving Ukraine the finan- fellow at the European University Institute,
law, pushing legislative changes (as at the facts. If non-western governments scale of claims China wants to rack up. cial means to win, recover and become martin.sandbu@ft.com Florence
22 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 6 November 2023*

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