THE HINDU

Monday, February 19, 2024 7

Delhi
Opinion

In Gaza, peace prospects remain distant Are the BJP and BJD foes or frenemies?
The two parties have shared a strange relationship in Odisha for about 15 years

A
s the conflict in Gaza
neared its fifth month,
the wanton death and
destruction wreaked
upon its Palestinian residents
spurred major peace initiatives
that brought together intelligence
officials from the U.S. and Israel
elements had been flushed out. He
assured his American
interlocutors that “we are nearly
there with total victory”.
However, it appears that the
peace negotiators have still not
Talmiz Ahmad given up: as Mr. Blinken left for
is a former diplomat home, he said the Hamas proposal
and court proceedings for
corruption and abuse of office.
Thus, his hardline posture in
response to peace initiatives is
possibly influenced by concerns
relating to his personal rather than
national interests. A major source
of his complacency is his shrewd
both the parties as they have
STATE OF PLAY managed to keep the Congress
at bay,” he said.
Satyasundar Barik Now, in the run up to the
satyasundar.b@thehindu.co.in 2024 general and State elec-
tions, the State BJP leadership

T
engaging with counterparts from “creates space” for an agreement assessment of the limits of the he Biju Janata Dal sees an opportunity to make a
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, to be reached, even as a Hamas pressure that the U.S. can bring to (BJD)’s recent nomina- serious dent in the BJD’s cita-
and the Prime Minister of Qatar. team reached Cairo a day after Mr. bear upon him. In the tion of candidates to del by taking advantage of the
To push the process forward, U.S. Blinken’s departure to discuss forthcoming presidential the Rajya Sabha would have reported fatigue with the two
Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrangements relating to prisoner elections, Mr. Biden faces a passed off as a routine affair if decade-long regime. It has
also embarked on his fifth visit to exchanges and movement of formidable challenge from the not for the fact that the party built a public perception
the region mainly to convey to humanitarian assistance. These resurgent Donald Trump. Again, chose to announce only two against the domination of V.K.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin expectations are perhaps given the total backing for Israel names and not the third. This Patnaik became a Cabinet Mi- Pandian, a close aide of the
Netanyahu the need to accept a unrealistic: on February 12, Israeli that animates most Republicans was especially surprising as nister in the Atal Bihari Vaj- Odisha Chief Minister, in the
ceasefire and allow increased special forces rescued two and Democrats in the House and Chief Minister Naveen Pat- payee government. The BJP BJD and government. It has
humanitarian assistance to reach hostages in Gaza, convincing Mr. Senate, Mr. Biden has no capacity naik’s firm leadership usually and the BJD were allies till the succeeded to an extent in trig-
the beleaguered people in Gaza. Netanyahu that the remaining to make unacceptable demands of leaves no room for interfe- anti-Christian riots broke out gering debates among the pu-
hostages could be freed through the Israeli Prime Minister. Hence, rence within the BJD. Specula- in Kandhamal district in 2008. blic about power being flexed
Peace negotiations military force. Mr. Netanyahu has disdainfully tion was rife that the BJD was The next year, the BJD broke by a “non-Odia”.
A peace plan emerged in Paris at Mr. Netanyahu is regarded as shrugged off all the advice awaiting the nod from the ties with the BJP and fought However, Mr. Vaishnaw’s
the end of January following talks Israel’s most wily, self-centred and addressed to him by the U.S. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). the national and State elec- nomination has brought the
among the intelligence chiefs and ruthless politician, with the President and his Secretary of The mystery unravelled on tions on its own. However, the State BJP’s initiative back to
the Qatari Prime Minister. It called capacity to turn even the most State. Israeli reports suggest that February 14 when the BJP’s Congress continued to be the square one. It is alleged that
for a two-month cease fire when adverse circumstances to his Mr. Netanyahu would like to Central leadership announced main opposition party in Od- the Central BJP’s priorities
the remaining hostages held by advantage. In December 2022, he prolong the Gaza conflict until Mr. the name of Union Minister of isha. Between 2004 and 2014, differ from those of the State
Hamas would be released in formed a government with hard Trump, his friend and benefactor, Railways, Communication, when the United Progressive unit. The Congress has de-
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return for a several Palestinian
prisoners in Israeli custody.
Hamas fine-tuned this proposal by
calling for a 135-day truce when
the release of hostages would take
place in three stages, along with
an increased flow of humanitarian
aid into Gaza. This would be
followed by a full cease fire and
the withdrawal of all Israeli troops
from Gaza.
Mr. Blinken carried this
proposal to Mr. Netanyahu on
February 7. Within a day, Mr.
Netanyahu rejected it, terming the
terms set by Hamas “delusional”.
Mr. Blinken later said he had told
Mr. Netanyahu that “the daily
toll…on innocent civilians remains
too high” and had insisted that
delivery of life-saving assistance
should not be blocked. President
Joe Biden said from Washington
that Israel’s military campaign had
been “over the top” and called for
a sovereign Palestinian state.
Mr. Netanyahu paid no heed to
U.S. advice: he insisted that his
war aim remained “total victory”
— the total destruction of Hamas
and the re-occupation of Gaza by
Israeli armed forces till all hostile
right-wing elements. He included
in his cabinet Finance Minister
Bezalel Smotrich and National
Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir
who represent groups that exhibit
the most visceral animosity for
Arabs and reject any possibility of
compromise with the Palestinians.
Given his dependence on
right-wing support, Mr. Netanyahu
has consistently rejected the
‘two-state solution’ and called for
a sovereign Palestinian state in the
occupied territories.
The Gaza war is perhaps Mr.
Netanyahu’s greatest challenge in
his long career. He is viewed by
most Israelis as responsible for the
failures that facilitated Hamas’
As Biden and
brutal attacks on October 7 last
Netanyahu year. While the hard right in his
struggle for Cabinet rejects any
their survival on accommodation with Hamas, his
the chess board war cabinet includes opposition
of domestic moderates such as former army
politics, scores chiefs Benny Gantz and Gadi
Eisenkot who have gained
of Palestinians
considerable political standing
are dying daily during the ongoing conflict. More
under the lethal seriously for Mr. Netanyahu, if his
barrage of government were to fall, he faces
Israeli firepower the prospect of immediate arrest
is elected to the White House.
The Saudi Arabia card
The one card that the U.S. is
hoping to use to push Mr.
Netanyahu towards a cease fire is
the prospect of normalisation of
ties with Saudi Arabia once a
sovereign Palestinian state is
conceded. But Mr. Netanyahu
believes he can get around this
with a United Nations Security
Council resolution recognising a
Palestinian state; this would
trigger normalisation of ties with
Saudi Arabia without Israel having
to actually give formal shape to
the resolution. This may be
misplaced optimism: the kingdom
has recently reiterated that
normalisation of ties with Israel
would follow the setting up of a
sovereign Palestinian state along
the 1967 borders, with East
Jerusalem as its capital.
Meanwhile, as Mr. Biden and
Mr. Netanyahu struggle for their
survival on the chess board of
domestic politics, scores of
Palestinians are dying daily under
the lethal barrage of Israeli
firepower.
and Information Technology
Ashwini Vaishnaw as its Rajya
Sabha candidate from Odisha
despite the national party not
having adequate strength in
the State Assembly. The BJD
lost no time in issuing a brief
statement extending support
to him. This episode exhibits
the complex relationship of
more than a decade between
the BJD and the BJP, who were
once coalition partners, in
Odisha.
While the BJP is trying to
displace the BJD, which has
held power for over two de-
cades in the eastern State, the
regional party is deploying ev-
ery trick in its playbook to re-
sist the BJP’s advances. Yet, on
critical Bills in Parliament,
constitutional positions, and
contentious national issues,
the BJP appears to always
bank on the BJD’s support.
Mr. Naveen Patnaik formed
the BJD in 1997 soon after the
death of his father, Biju Pat-
naik. The BJD emerged as a re-
gional force opposed to the
Congress. In 1998, Mr. Naveen
Alliance was in power at the
Centre, the BJD strongly posi-
tioned itself as a victim of Cen-
tral negligence, showing its
fundamental anti-Congress
character.
When Narendra Modi be-
came Prime Minister in 2014,
the equation between the two
parties began to change. The
BJP grew on its own and dis-
placed the Congress as the
principal opposition party in
the State in the 2017 pan-
chayat polls. In most of the
elections that followed, the
BJD and the BJP were in a di-
rect contest, while the Con-
gress occupied a distant third
position, except in some re-
gions in southern Odisha.
However, according to San-
dip Sahu, a political commen-
tator, realisation grew in the
BJP camp that the BJD could
not be dislodged for as long as
it was helmed by Mr. Naveen
Patnaik. “The party decided,
if you cannot beat them, join
them. That’s how this unde-
clared understanding came in-
to force. It has worked well for
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manded to know why the BJP
singles out Mr. Pandian while
it has no problem with Mr.
Vaishnaw. “Both are former
bureaucrats and have served
the State. Both belong to other
States and have held impor-
tant positions in government.
The people are no fools. The
nomination has confirmed
that the BJP is not waging a se-
rious fight against the BJD. It is
involved in shadow boxing,”
said a senior Congress leader.
“It is perplexing to see Central
agencies targeting political
leaders of the Opposition in
West Bengal and Jharkhand
and ignoring Odisha as if no
corruption ever happens in
the State,” he added.
The Congress has made the
right move by raking up the
strange relationship between
the BJD and the BJP. After stag-
ing a mock wedding ceremony
between the two parties in Ja-
nuary, the Congress has been
trying to create the public per-
ception that ideologically, it is
the main opposition party in
Odisha.

The enormity of the Indian electorate and its State-wise variances F R OM T HE A RC HI V ES

The prospect of delimitation based on electorate variances in States will have to grapple with federal questions
FIFTY YEARS AGO FEBRUARY 19, 1974

DATA POINT
galore North (28.5 lakh) had the TV for Madras may be
highest number of electors.
The variance across States in delayed
Vignesh Radhakrishnan, the number of electors that each
Rebecca Rose Varghese elected MP represents is also a Madras, Feb. 18: The introduction of television
& Srinivasan Ramani consequence of the frozen delimi- in Madras may be delayed till the end of this
tation exercise, last conducted af- year, according to modest calculations based on
the progress of the project.

W
ith 97 crore voters elig-
ible to register their
mandate in the general
elections later this year, India will
yet again go through a process
confirming its status as the world’s
largest electoral democracy. The
electorate will register a 6% rise
this year in comparison to the
number of eligible voters in 2019.
India’s 28 States and eight Un-
ion Territories are home to a large
number of voters comparable to
some of the world’s biggest nation-
states. Map 1 shows the countries
whose electorate numbers come
close to those of the States in India,
with the name of the country
printed over the respective State.
For example, the electorate size
of Uttar Pradesh (14.6 crore) is
comparable to that of the world’s
seventh most populous country —
Brazil. Maharashtra’s and Bihar’s
electorates match those of Mexico
and the Philippines, respectively.
Even Goa’s electorate size com-
pares well with that of Bahrain and
Cyprus.
There is also significant var-
iance State-wise in the number of
electors that the winning Member
of Parliament represented in the
Lok Sabha from 2019 to 2024.
While an elected MP from Delhi,
on average, represented 20.5 lakh
voters, an MP from Uttar Pradesh
represented 18.3 lakh voters, from
Andhra Pradesh 15.8 lakh voters,
and Tamil Nadu 15.4 lakh voters,
the corresponding numbers for
Kerala and Tripura were 13.1 lakh
each. Map 2 shows the State-wise
average number of voters for each
MP there.
Table 3 lists out the constituen-
cies that commanded the top five
and bottom five electors among
major States. Telangana’s Malkajgi-
ri (31.5 lakh) and Karnataka’s Ban-
CM
YK
ter the 1971 Census, that has not
updated the numbers correspond- The Union Information Minister, who visited
ing to the one-person-one-vote Madras last June expressed the hope after
principle. This was done to en- inspecting the civil construction work that TV
courage States which controlled might be introduced by March, 1974.
the population effectively. But the Engineering personnel of the Government of
idea of delimitation in its present India have just commenced the technical work,
form is fraught with consequenc- like laying the studio and attending to acoustic
es. It could affect States that have details which require “extraordinary care and
worked hard to limit their birth planning” as the entire setup should conform to
and death rates, and who could international standards. Civil work like
see their total number of MPs be- construction of studios and administrative
ing reduced if the Lok Sabha size is offices, is progressing at a fast pace on the
retained in a prospective delimita- five-acre plot inside the Government Estate.
tion exercise or a modest rise in an The main reason for the delay in the schedule
expanded House compared to is said to be the decision on the height of the TV
some of the most populous States tower. Originally this antenna was to be 150
which have not addressed the metres and all erection arrangements were
birth and death rates to the same made on that basis. Subsequently it was felt that
extent. this could be raised, and it has been finally
A recent paper (Vaishnav et al, decided to have a 175-metre tower (575 feet).
Carnegie endowment) pointed to This necessitates re-designing of the structure
the fact that U.P. and Bihar might and the base. Experts in pile driving feel that
gain 11 and 10 seats each if the size special attention is needed for this foundation
of the Lok Sabha is retained as it is, work taking into consideration the height, the
while Tamil Nadu and Kerala will velocity of wind, etc. They hope that their part
experience a net decrease of eight of their work might be completed in about four
seats each (Table 4A). On the oth- months time from the day of starting. The
er hand, if the Lok Sabha size is in- antenna is to be fabricated in Allahabad.
creased to 848 based on the pro-
jected population in 2026, the
increase in the number of MPs for
U.P. and Bihar will be 63 and 39
each, in comparison to 10 and zero A HUNDRED YEARS AGO FEBRUARY 19, 1924
for Tamil Nadu and Kerala (Table
4B). The Cauvery project
This is why experts have cau-
tioned against a delimitation exer- The Government of Madras and Mysore have
cise that could result in a skewed concluded yesterday (Monday) an agreement
federal representation hurting the setting at rest the long-pending Cauvery dispute.
numbers for States that have done Under the agreement the Government of Madras
the most to address the issue of give their consent to the Krishnarajagara project
population explosion. Various and as regards further extension a working
ideas ranging from continuing the arrangement has been secured in the advantage
freeze in delimitation to retaining of both parties. The Government of Madras are
the size of the Lok Sabha and its re- as a part of the arrangement enabled to
presentation as it is nationally construct the Metur reservoir and the two
while increasing the size of the Governments have consented to certain mutual
State Assemblies in respective limitations of extension of irrigation in their
States have been espoused. respective territories.
A ND-NDE