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The Political Quarterly, Vol. 91, No.

3, July–September 2020

Government Communications, Political Trust


and Compliant Social Behaviour: The Politics of
Covid-19 in Britain
KENNETH NEWTON

Abstract
It is commonly said that the lockdowns and social distancing necessary to control coron-
avirus pandemics will only work if the general population trusts its government, believes the
information it provides, and has confidence in its policies. This article traces the British gov-
ernment’s record in providing information about its policies and performance, and compares
this with the public’s use of the mainstream news media. It then considers how these two
sources of information affected trust in government and public compliance with social dis-
tancing and lockdown rules. Lastly, it compares Covid-19 with Brexit and draws conclusions
about how beliefs and behaviour are formed when individuals are personally faced with a
serious threat.
Keywords: Covid-19, government information, mainstream news, trust, social compliance

IT IS REASONABLE to assume that social com- had not much or none. The comparable fig-
pliance with the difficult and stressful beha- ures in Germany, the highest trust country,
viour required to stop the spread of diseases were 83 and 13 per cent, and in Italy, the
such as Covid-19 are dependent on the pop- lowest, 63 and 36 per cent.1
ulation’s trust and confidence in the govern- How the British government has commu-
ment that is imposing lockdown and social nicated with the public and what it has com-
distancing rules. Based on its massive municated have played a major part in
knowledge of public opinion and behaviour, determining how citizens have come to view
this is what the Gallup Poll, for example, has their government and how they have
to say about the matter. behaved during the Covid-19 pandemic. But
the evidence does not confirm the claim that
People’s trust in the medical advice and trust in government is crucial or that compli-
information they get from their government ance with lockdown behaviour is dependent
will be crucial in the coming days and weeks upon this trust.
as the countries on the frontlines of COVID- The evidence for these conclusions is pre-
19 outbreaks in Western Europe and the U.S. sented in three main parts. The first considers
step up their mitigation strategies.
the content of government communications,
Somewhat fortunately, before the arrival of
the COVID-19 pandemic, substantial majori- including the background context of a long
ties of residents in Italy, the United King- tradition of secrecy in British government, the
dom, Germany, France, Spain and the United example the government set in its own beha-
States said they trust the medical advice and viour, and its frequent claims that its policies
information they receive from their govern- were following the science. The second part
ments. turns to the role of the mainstream media in
informing the public about the pandemic and
Gallup reports that 81 percent of the pop- the attention paid to the news by the public.
ulation in the UK in 2018 said they had a lot The third part considers how the combination
or some trust in the government’s medical of government behaviour and media informa-
and health advice, and 18 per cent said they tion caused opinion to swing from trust in the

502 © 2020 The Authors. The Political Quarterly published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Political Quarterly Publishing Co (PQPC)
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use
and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations
are made.
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government to distrust, and how this led their expert views were confidential, so the
many to make up their own minds about how wider world was unable to tell whether the
best to protect themselves and others from the government was actually following the
disease. science, as it claimed. Under pressure, it
revealed SAGE membership and the group
itself released records showing that there was
Government information, lack of sometimes disagreement about alternative
information, misinformation, and courses of action, some heeded by the govern-
disinformation ment, some not. Concern was expressed about
the proper functioning of the committee when
Secrecy it was discovered that the Prime Minister’s
policy advisor, Dominic Cummings, and
A background factor in the official Covid-19
another political appointee of Number Ten,
information campaign is a long-established
had attended its meetings.4 When lockdown
tradition of secrecy in British government.
was delayed on the grounds that research
This caused problems years before the onset
showed the need to avoid lockdown fatigue,
of the pandemic. Experts informed us that flu
there was speculation about the nature and
and virus pandemics had occurred with
reliability of research used to justify inaction
increasing frequency since the Asian flu of
when earlier action would save lives.
1957 and that we should expect another one
Secrecy was also built into the emergency
sooner or later, probably sooner. As a result,
powers of the government to award con-
three simulations were run to test the coun-
tracts to companies without open tendering,
try’s ability to deal with such a crisis and to
sometimes with confidential commercial
make recommendations: Winter Willow
clauses, sometimes not divulged until after
(2007), Exercise Cygnus (2016), and, in Scot-
the event, and sometimes awarded to com-
land, Exercise Iris (2018). All found serious
panies without the resources or experience
failings, and among their recommendations
to deliver services quickly and efficiently.5
they picked out: the need to stockpile equip-
As John Denham puts it, ‘Commercial confi-
ment; the need for close coordination between
dentiality ensures minimal scrutiny’.6 Mini-
levels of government; the need to shield those
mal scrutiny has many possible
most at risk in care homes; and the heavy
consequences ranging from inefficiency to
demands of testing, tracking and isolating.
corruption and public distrust.
Little was known about Exercise Cygnus
One of the most prominent features of the
until it was leaked in 2020, but it seems that
daily press briefings during the pandemic
its publication was suppressed because it was
was the official announcement of daily Covid-
‘too terrifying’ for the public, partly because
19 deaths. Initially, these included care home
the chief medical officer at the time concluded
figures, but these were then then omitted
that the NHS had clearly failed the Cygnus
from the total. When it became clear from
test.2 In any case, care homes were not
other sources that care home deaths were high
informed of its recommendations, so could
and increasing, the government included the
not implement them in 2020. It seems that the
figures in the total once again, increasing
government’s Scientific Advisory Group for
them by a substantial amount. Not releasing
Emergencies (SAGE) did not know about, or
the figures aroused suspicion and had a big-
did not discuss the report in January or Febru-
ger impact on public opinion when it was rea-
ary.3 Publication of reports like Cygnus might
lised how large they were. More distrust was
put pressure on governments to take action
aroused by government ministers failing to
on their recommendations and provide infor-
answer directly questions from the press and
mation for those who need to know. Besides,
public during these press briefings.
lack of PPE and the high care home death rate
both came back to bite the government and
publication would have saved them trouble in Vagueness
the longer run.
Government secrecy had other conse- Some of the most important information
quences. Initially, the members SAGE and broadcast by the government was confusing

GOVERNMENT COMMUNICATIONS, POLITICAL TRUST AND COMPLIANT SOCIAL


B E H A V I O U R 503

© 2020 The Authors. The Political Quarterly published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Political Quarterly, Vol. 91, No. 3
Political Quarterly Publishing Co (PQPC)
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and contradictory.7 In the first daily press and Cabinet ministers with scientific advi-
meetings the government repeated that a pri- sors at daily press meetings over the follow-
mary objective was ‘flattening the curve’, a ing weeks. Since Covid-19 was new, there
phrase that PR experts found unappealing was almost no science to follow about this
and ineffective. On 16 March the Prime Min- specific form of the disease, but, and it is a
ister announced that it would not be neces- big but, there was ample science in general
sary to shut schools, yet on 20 March about how to deal with coronavirus out-
schools were shut until further notice. When breaks—science that was well understood
the government started easing the lockdown, and widely available. That science said that
most people thought the new slogan, ‘Stay early, decisive action was essential to pre-
alert’, was meaningless and the regional gov- vent the disease spreading; a large stockpile
ernments of Wales and Scotland rejected it. of medical supplies and equipment was nec-
When schools were partially re-opened, the essary; a clear plan of action was needed,
government issued vague and confusing preferably laid down in advance when there
directives, and repeated the same mistake was calm and time to think carefully, as
when shops followed suit and airport immi- Winter Will, Cygnus and Iris had done; close
gration officers had to enforce new quaran- coordination between key players; testing,
tine rules. There were days of conflicting tracing, and isolating the infected; a lock-
messages about the need to wear face masks down of the population; international coop-
in shops and public places. Lack of clarity eration; and a ban on travellers from
frequently caused distraction from the main hotspots abroad. Above all, the science
business of managing the crisis, and sug- emphasised that rapid, decisive, and early
gested a lack of thought and planning as action was essential.
well as a failure to master the basics of com- The government did not so much follow
munication with the public. This added to a this science as ignore most of it. In spite of
general feeling that the government was not increasingly urgent warnings coming from
handling things well. the Chinese government, the World Health
Organization (WHO), SAGE, and The Lancet,
the weeks from February to mid-March were
Setting an example a period of indecision and inaction. Boris
Johnson missed five consecutive emergency
The government broke its own rules. On the 3
meetings of SAGE, earning him the nick-
March 2020 the government asked people not
name of the ‘part-time Prime Minister’ and
to shake hands, yet on the same day the Prime
being reported as ‘missing in action’. Some
Minister stated that he was shaking hands
18 million people arrived in Britain by air in
with everyone. The first televised daily meet-
the three months before lockdown, and tour-
ings with the press showed him flanked by
ists disembarked from cruise ships from
medical advisors clearly breaking their two
virus hotspots (and which were themselves
metre social distancing rule. When officials in
virus hotspots), the great majority without
England, Scotland, and abroad broke the lock-
testing and free to travel home and mix at
down rules, they resigned their official posts,
will. All this was reported prominently in
but those close to Number Ten did not.
the press. Not generally known at the time,
Dominic Cummings’ trip to Barnard Castle
but exactly what the pandemic simulations
and Durham had a big impact (discussed
had warned against, large numbers of older
below) on public opinion. Among Western
people were transferred out of hospitals—in
political leaders the Prime Minister was one
order to clear beds for coronavirus patients
of the last to appear in public wearing a face
—to care homes where they spread the dis-
mask (and only two days before Trump).
ease among those most at risk.
As days, then weeks, passed, scientists
Following the science and experts continued to repeat the urgent
need for action, repeating the mantra of test,
The government has made a point of empha- trace, isolate, and lockdown, all of which
sising that its policies followed the lead of soon became common knowledge. The
science, backing its claim by flanking the PM media reported the stark news coming out

504 KENNETH NEWTON

The Political Quarterly, Vol. 91, No. 3 © 2020 The Authors. The Political Quarterly published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of
Political Quarterly Publishing Co (PQPC)
1467923x, 2020, 3, Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-923X.12901 by Nat Prov Indonesia, Wiley Online Library on [11/11/2023]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
of Italy and Spain, and what the Germans that SAGE had advised the government to
were doing to control the spread of the start lockdown a week before it did.
virus. In early March the Prime Minister A report of the National Audit Office
announced his main weapons against this states that the only central stockpile of PPE
contagious and deadly disease: hand wash- was designed for a flu epidemic, not the
ing while singing ‘Happy Birthday’ and not gowns and visors an official committee had
touching your face. recommended in 2019. Consequently, the
The government did not come out publicly volume of required PPE available fell far
with a plan of action until mid-March, but it short of requirements listed by the commit-
was really a plan of inaction that failed to tee of experts.9 Of the 33 million respirator
comply with the science: tracking and tracing masks in the 2009 procurement, only 12 mil-
was not to be attempted; testing was limited lion were distributed. The government failed
to those admitted to hospital; there was little to explain what happened to the rest, except
attempt to build a stock of PPE; no evidence to say that limited demand for masks meant
of a plan of action for the next weeks and they were not handed out; another puzzle,
months; no lockdown; schools were not given that demands for masks and other
closed; large gatherings were not banned; few PPE were repeated loudly and often.
travellers from abroad were tested and quar- The three pandemic simulations discussed
antined. Even though the risk was raised from above were clear about the need to shield
moderate to high the Prime Minister gave vulnerable staff and residents in care homes.
vague, soft advice to stay at home for those On 25 February the government released its
with symptoms (though people without guidance notes for community care and resi-
symptoms can be infectious), avoid unneces- dential care homes. Face masks were not
sary travel and contact with others, and avoid needed, visiting not banned, and there was
cruise ships if over seventy. no need to do anything different because ‘It
Expert scientific reaction was loud and remains very unlikely that people receiving
widespread. Professor William Hanage, an care in a care home . . . will become
epidemiologist at Harvard, wrote that he infected.’10 The document was withdrawn
thought the Prime Minister’s outline policy on 13 March but around 25,000 people were
was satire when he first read it, an example discharged from hospitals into care homes
of strange British humour.8 Those who between 17 March and 15 April and it is not
started social distancing and semi-isolation known how many were tested for Covid-19.
in the first week of March watched the daily Until late April neither staff nor residents
press briefings with disbelief as the govern- were tested routinely unless they had symp-
ment continued to delay the inevitable. toms, but when tested later, it was found
When the national lockdown was that 42 per cent of staff and residents with-
announced on 23 March, the virus had more out symptoms were positive. Furthermore,
or less free rein for fifty-two days after the many staff move between care homes carry-
first infection was recorded on 1 February ing infection with them and the general
2020. The UK was one of the last European underfunding of care homes has left them
countries to go into general lockdown, especially vulnerable to infectious disease.11
although by that time it had one of the high-
est daily rates of death and infection. Mem-
bers of SAGE have calculated that the failure Moving the scientific goalposts
to lockdown earlier cost lives—perhaps as When the stocks of PPE were first dis-
many as 20,000. A model devised for Chan- tributed, some equipment with a use-by date
nel 4’s Dispatches programme estimated that of 2016 had a sticker placed over this infor-
a lockdown on 16 March in the UK might mation with a new date of 2020.12 Similarly,
have saved 8,000 lives; four days earlier it care workers were informed that masks from
might have saved 13,000. On 16 July the the government stockpile that were past
government’s chief scientific advisor, Sir their use-by date were deemed fit for use by
Patrick Vallance, told the science and tech- official sources.13 Medical staff reacted
nology committee of the House of Commons strongly against the government telling them

GOVERNMENT COMMUNICATIONS, POLITICAL TRUST AND COMPLIANT SOCIAL


B E H A V I O U R 505

© 2020 The Authors. The Political Quarterly published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Political Quarterly, Vol. 91, No. 3
Political Quarterly Publishing Co (PQPC)
1467923x, 2020, 3, Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-923X.12901 by Nat Prov Indonesia, Wiley Online Library on [11/11/2023]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
that they should use the PPE more than once below, many members of the public knew
and that full length medical gowns were not this.
necessary, both contrary to the accepted
safety practices.14
The timing and sequencing of lifting the Government information,
lockdown was another problem, starting misinformation, and
with the first efforts to open schools when disinformation
the government broke its own rules for start-
ing the process.15 The SAGE assessment said Secrecy, lack of information, unclear and
it ‘cannot be clear’ that opening up schools ineffective messaging, setting a bad example,
would not lead to an increase in infections’.16 and ignoring the science all played their part
Independent SAGE put it more bluntly: in the course of the pandemic, but more
schools should not re-open on June 1, important for the political attitudes and
because there is no clear evidence that it was behaviour of the population was official mis-
safe.17 In any case, lifting lockdown and information. In an era of fake news, conspir-
keeping the rate of infection low depends on acy theories, alternative facts, and
rigorous and effective testing, tracking, and propaganda, a distinction must be drawn
isolating, but tracking and isolating were still between information, misinformation, and
experiencing teething problems. Further- disinformation. By information is meant fac-
more, the absence of a mobile app limited tual statements that are consistent with the
the ability to track extensively. The chief sci- best available evidence at the time; disinfor-
entific advisor urged caution: the country mation is incorrect but provided in good
did not meet the WHO’s six criteria for lift- faith without intent to deceive; misinforma-
ing lockdown measures, and the UK was tion is incorrect and intended to deceive.
placed 163 on a list of 168 countries in terms Government misinformation was a frequent
of its readiness to exit lockdown.18 occurrence during the British pandemic.
It is rightly said that when you cross poli- It started on 31 January when the EU
tics with science, what you get is politics.19 began planning for the bulk purchasing of
However, it is not clear what exactly hap- PPE. Britain could have joined this effort but
pened during the Covid pandemic and declined, saying it was making its own
research will probably reveal an inevitably arrangements. It then changed its story say-
complicated and muddled process. Did ing that it had not received EU emails invit-
politicians try to follow a science that was ing Britain to participate, although British
wrong, or did they pick the most convenient officials had attended EU meetings. A senior
recommendations from conflicting advice? Whitehall official then said that the decision
Was groupthink involved, or maybe the sci- had been political, but retracted the state-
entists provided what the politicians wanted ment the next day.
to hear? Or, more likely, that scientists rec- In the early days, several government offi-
ommended options that were practicable, cials went on record, stating that one aim of
given the parlous state of the NHS, the pub- their policy was to create herd immunity.
lic health system, and the mindset of their When it was realised that this would might
political masters?20 There are bound to be entail millions of infections and up to half a
delays in making decisions and then again million deaths, it was officially denied that
in implementing them. Any and all of these herd immunity was ever part of the policy.
are possible and must remain open for any If there is any truth in this denial, it rests on
enquiry into the handling of the pandemic. a hair-splitting distinction between policy
What is clear now is that in spite of its fre- and an inevitable consequence of policy.21
quent claims, government policy did not, for The widespread criticism of the govern-
whatever reason, follow the general science ment for its failure to deliver adequate sup-
of pandemic control so far as testing, track- plies of PPE provoked it into making false
ing, isolating, lockdown, protecting the claims about the amount distributed and the
elderly and others most at risk, and those imminence of fresh supplies. One large ship-
frontline workers who depended on a reli- ment of equipment was said to be arriving,
able supply of PPE. And, as discussed but seemed not have been distributed three

506 KENNETH NEWTON

The Political Quarterly, Vol. 91, No. 3 © 2020 The Authors. The Political Quarterly published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of
Political Quarterly Publishing Co (PQPC)
1467923x, 2020, 3, Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-923X.12901 by Nat Prov Indonesia, Wiley Online Library on [11/11/2023]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
weeks later. Another consignment was difference between deaths with Covid on the
claimed to be arriving on a Monday, when it death certificate (the government’s way of
was actually going to be ordered on that counting) and the larger, but more realistic
day. When part of it arrived a few days later figure of excess deaths. Even so, the figures
some items were found unfit for use. On were not the whole truth for some weeks.
another occasion, the Health Secretary, Matt (Initially, the daily count had included care
Hancock, announced that that a massive home deaths, but that practice was dropped,
effort had resulted in over a billion items of until it became clear that the figures were
PPE being delivered. It later transpired that high and increasing. When they incorporated
the billion included many items not usually again into the figures the totals rose substan-
thought of as PPE (such as body bags, clini- tially.)
cal waste containers and cleaning equip- One of the more puzzling events occurred
ment) and surgical gloves were counted when Boris Johnson caught the virus, went
singly, not in pairs. The figure of a billion into intensive care, but while there was
was an overestimation by many millions. announced to be in an optimistic mood and
Covid testing produced another batch of still in charge of government. Being in inten-
misinformation. Under intense pressure, the sive care and still in charge of government
number of daily tests increased a little, until seemed unlikely, the more so when Dominic
on 29 March the Health Secretary announced Raab, the de facto deputy, admitted that he
that a 10,000 target had been met. The fact had barely been in touch with the Prime
check organisation Full Fact finds no data to Minister. Shortly after, a press release said
support the claim and the figure confuses the PM had recovered enough to be able to
the number of tests and the number of peo- sit up in bed. It is not clear how someone
ple tested.22 Since testing is a difficult job, can be in good spirits and running the gov-
the same person may be tested two or three ernment one day, and the next day,
times to get it done properly. A goal of improved enough to sit up in bed. The epi-
100,000 tests a day by the end of April was sode is of little importance in itself, which
then announced and repeated frequently, makes it even more difficult to understand
although it provoked much scepticism. why it required confusing and apparently
When the day arrived, it was claimed that contradictory PR treatment. Perhaps the staff
the target had been exceeded by a substan- at Number Ten thought that news about the
tial margin, but it turned out that the figure Prime Minister flat on his back and totally
included tests that had been put in the post, incapacitated was bad publicity.
though whether they had actually been car- Doubt ranging from scepticism to disbelief
ried out, returned, or processed was of government communications was further
unknown. The next day recorded 85,000 encouraged by pronouncements made by the
actual tests. The nature of testing figures Prime Minister. He claimed early on that the
caused the head of the UK Statistics Author- NHS could cope well with the pandemic,
ity to write letters to the Health Secretary on even when the service itself had warned that
11 May and 2 June, the second saying that it would struggle with a normal bout of win-
the government’s aim ‘seems to be to show ter flu and stated ‘we’ve got a fantastic
the largest possible number of tests, even at NHS, we will give them all the support that
the expense of understanding’.23 they need, we will make sure that they have
The official daily figures for Covid deaths all preparations, all the kit that they need for
released in the government’s press briefings us to get through it.’25 At the daily Downing
are also a matter of doubt and dispute. Street press conference on 19 March, he
There are different ways of counting Covid repeated that ‘We’re guided very much by
mortality, but the government’s highest daily the science’ and ‘the next twelve weeks
figure was 980, recorded on 8 April 2020. could turn the tide of this disease’, adding
The Office of National Statistics reports that that he was absolutely confident it was pos-
the real figure that day was 1,445 and for sible to ‘send the virus packing in this coun-
twenty-two consecutive days between 2 and try’, when the evidence of other countries
23 April it never dipped below 1,000.24 Some further advanced than Britain said otherwise.
of the discrepancy is explained by the Exactly twelve weeks later, a further 1,266

GOVERNMENT COMMUNICATIONS, POLITICAL TRUST AND COMPLIANT SOCIAL


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© 2020 The Authors. The Political Quarterly published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Political Quarterly, Vol. 91, No. 3
Political Quarterly Publishing Co (PQPC)
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people tested positive and the official death excepted, had performed worse than Bri-
rate for that day was 151.26 Johnson had tain.30 The population is often accused of
claimed that the UK would have a world being politically ignorant; these survey
beating tracking and tracing programme, but results suggest otherwise.
the app was delayed and then abandoned. The evidence is that people make up their
On 2 June he announced that ‘This country own minds about subjects that are of per-
is now testing more than virtually any other sonal relevance and about which they have
country in Europe’, but Full Fact finds that personal experience and knowledge.31 It also
‘The UK appears to be testing fewer people shows that people know what news sources
than in Russia. But there isn’t enough data they trust and distrust, that they know when
on this to determine for sure where the UK they are being misled about issues of first-
places, and the UK’s data isn’t particularly hand experience and relevance. They can
comparable with other countries.’27 spot the politicians who do not answer ques-
tions put to them, especially when they do it
daily over months of press meetings. This is
Mainstream media information not to say that they necessarily make the
The British public took close interest in Covid- right, logical, or sensible decisions, or that
19 from the start. The first few deaths in Eur- they master the details of political issues,
ope and the USA provoked a jump in interest only that they have a general understanding
in news about the pandemic that spread to of matters of first-hand experience and
about half the population by 31 January. Four importance to them and make up their own
Populus surveys from 20 March to 10 April minds accordingly.
recorded a record breaking 98 per cent of the The combination of unreliable government
population noticing stories about the virus.28 information, counter-balanced by different
Most were paying much more attention to information from the mainstream news
trustworthy sources of news and drawing media, plus the readiness of the population
their own conclusions from it. Typically in to make up its own mind about issues of
times of crisis, the British people turn to BBC personal, first-hand relevance, had a decisive
News because it is the most trusted source of influence on trust in the government and
information in the country, with a rating far compliance with social distancing and lock-
higher than the government or politicians. The down rules.
Guardian was the most trusted newspaper, but
even the Conservative-leaning national press
often took the government to task for its short-
Political attitudes and social
comings, so the public was far from depen- behaviour
dent on official government press releases.
The mainstream media covered the pan- Attitudes
demic in Britain and abroad extensively, and Times of national crisis are often accompa-
in some detail. Covid-19 was headline or nied by an initial rally-round-the flag effect
front page news for many weeks, with the on public mood, followed by a gradual
press reporting government successes and decline of political trust and confidence as
failures, and investigating and correcting the crisis develops and its costs emerge. Pub-
government misinformation. Consequently, lic opinion in the USA about the Korean and
the public was well informed in general Vietnam wars, for example, followed this
about the pandemic and how the govern- pattern, in both cases disillusionment grow-
ment was dealing with it. A YouGov Covid ing in direct proportion to the increase in
tracker poll compares how well people in military casualties and deaths. The same
twenty-two countries thought their govern- occurred in the UK when support for the
ment was handling coronavirus: by 29 May government and trust in political leaders
the UK sample ranked their country bottom was widespread at first, but declined as the
of the international table.29 Another YouGov pandemic developed.
poll shows that the British believed that that From the end of January 2020, government
no other country in the study, America approval climbed steadily from 30 per cent

508 KENNETH NEWTON

The Political Quarterly, Vol. 91, No. 3 © 2020 The Authors. The Political Quarterly published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of
Political Quarterly Publishing Co (PQPC)
1467923x, 2020, 3, Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-923X.12901 by Nat Prov Indonesia, Wiley Online Library on [11/11/2023]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
to a peak of 52 per cent on 23–23 March, death toll from coronavirus rose, but the
when it fell steeply to 32 per cent by the first announcement of 40,000 deaths and Dominic
week of June. On 11 March 2020, 72 per cent Cummings’ trips to Durham and Barnard
thought the government was handling the Castle tipped the decline into a steep slide.
crisis very or somewhat well; by 5 June it Conservative voters were most likely to
was 39 per cent. In mid-January, 42 per cent break ranks over the Cummings scandal.
thought Johnson was doing well as Prime After a week of news headlines and calls for
Minister. This climbed steeply in the last two Cummings to resign, the Prime Minister said
weeks of March to 66 per cent and then fell that the country should ‘move on’ from the
more steeply over the next three weeks to 43 controversy, but almost a fifth of Tory voters
per cent.32 By the end of April two-thirds of disagreed. Two-thirds of the country
the population thought that the government believed that the PM was wrong to support
had acted too late in imposing stricter lock- Cummings, including 45 per cent of Conser-
down measures.33 vative voters, and almost half the country
Similarly, trust in the government to pro- said they had lost respect for the govern-
vide accurate pandemic information fell from ment for supporting him.39
67 to 48 per cent between 10 April and 21 In other countries, the politicians with rep-
May, while the percentages for news organi- utations intact or enhanced are notable for
sations rose from 38 to 48 per cent, and their plain and honest speaking and frank
those for scientists, doctors, and experts rose discussion of the difficulties of policy mak-
from 83 to 88 per cent.34 By the end of May, ing, for facing problems squarely, and treat-
the Conservatives were, in the words of a ing the public as adults. They are
YouGov poll, taking a hammering.35 More disproportionately women, including Jacinda
people were reporting that they thought the Ardern, Angela Merkel, Sanna Marin, Mette
government weak, incompetent, untrustwor- Frederiksen, and Nicola Sturgeon, but also
thy, and cared only about a select few. By Anthony Fauci, a leading member of the
the end of June, more people thought Keir White House Coronavirus Task Force, and
Starmer would make a better Prime Minister New York State Governor, Andrew Cuomo,
than Johnson; 51 per cent said the govern- among others. By comparison, British minis-
ment had under-responded to the pandemic ters—almost exclusively men—have lacked
and its net approval rating for handling the their qualities and failed to engage the trust
crisis fell further to minus 10 per cent. The of the general public. The government
general feeling was that too little had been seemed to believe that it was necessary to
done and too late, and then by July the view give out optimistic and upbeat messages; the
of almost two-thirds of the population was public wanted honest speaking that con-
that lockdown was being eased too fronted reality.
quickly.36 By the beginning of July, Johnson’s Large shifts in political opinion during the
net approval rating had fallen to minus 6 Covid pandemic were not unexpected, but
per cent, after reaching a high of plus 40 per their consequences for social behaviour were
cent in the second week of May.37 unanticipated.
Public opinion often takes some time to
adjust to new circumstances, with small fluc-
tuations around an accumulation of inci-
Social behaviour
dents, followed by a major swing of opinion Most predictions about social behaviour dur-
precipitated by one or two controversial ing lockdowns assumed that widespread
ones. In the case of the Vietnam War, Ameri- compliance with the rules would require
can support fell slowly in line with the rise high levels of trust in government and confi-
in body bags, but fell sharply and perma- dence in its policies and ability to deliver
nently immediately after the Tet Offensive, them, especially when patience ran out and
mainly because the public came to realise lockdown fatigue set in. None of this applies
that it had been deceived about the power of to the UK. As ever, there were those who
the Viet Cong by their government.38 Simi- did not comply: some thought that the pan-
larly, in the UK trust in the government demic was fake or a conspiracy; some older
began to slip away in late March as the citizens were unable or unwilling to change

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B E H A V I O U R 509

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Political Quarterly Publishing Co (PQPC)
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their settled social patterns; and many control over our affairs or little or no infor-
younger adults took no notice. The 18–24 mation to help us make up our minds. Then
age group was found to have the highest we must rely on others. Little is known even
levels of infection, but the lowest likelihood now about Covid-19—except that it is a
and willingness of isolate, if told to.40 The deadly virus that anyone can catch. The risk
great majority of people, however, complied of infection might be small, but the price to
with social distancing, shielding, and lock- pay for any given individual might be final.
down rules; some took the decision days or The calculation requires balancing the proba-
even weeks before the government acted. bilities against the risk, and if the risk is seri-
When it came to easing lockdown restric- ous illness or death, the calculation is
tions, as mentioned above, the majority of heavily weighted on the side of caution, the
the population thought the government was more so if friends, family and, perhaps,
moving too quickly. unknown others are involved. No one
Why do we find a low trust and sceptical knows what the probabilities and costs of
population socially isolating and distancing Brexit will be for any given individual in Bri-
itself, sometimes before the government told tain, so we must, in the last analysis, trust or
them to and often continuing to do so after distrust the judgment of others or follow our
the rules were eased? Because, as argued own gut feelings. Being told that we will
above, they used different sources of infor- have an extra £350 million a week for the
mation and made up their own minds about NHS by leaving the EU, is one thing, but
how to protect themselves and those around being told that it is safe to send your chil-
them. Three-quarters of the population dren back to school when this involves risk
believed that they could personally influence of serious disease is another.
whether they were infected, and that not fol-
lowing the rules was the most important fac-
tor in spreading the disease.41 Most gave
Conclusion
more priority to health than the economy. It is widely assumed that compliance with
Trust in the government and confidence in social distancing and lockdown rules require
its policies is sometimes not essential, it a trust in government, confidence in its poli-
seems, for public compliance with rules to cies and its ability to deliver them, plus a
protect personal and public interests. If the belief that its information can be relied upon.
crisis concerns the personal interests of an However, the British public generally
individual, or their personal safety and that observed the rules, despite a major decline
of their friends and family, they are likely to of trust, confidence, and belief, in the space
weigh up the risks and take what action they of just a few weeks. It did so because it had
think is appropriate, irrespective of what alternative and more trusted sources of infor-
they think of the media or the government, mation in the mainstream news media, as
or both. well as the non-government expert opinion
In this respect, government information that the media reported. The public paid
about Covid-19 and Brexit was treated in a close attention to the sources of information
different way by the public. Brexit is an it trusted, especially the BBC, and conse-
abstract and remote issue involving complex quently, it was quite well informed about
matters of national identity, international how the British government was performing
affairs, and trading relations in the future. compared with other countries. Its initial
Covid is literally an in-your-face matter of rally-round-the flag attitudes gradually chan-
illness and death in the here and now. Views ged to become less trusting of government
about Brexit were ruled by the heart; Covid information, and less confident about its per-
was a matter for calculating personal risk formance. News of 40,000 deaths and
using the head. As Samuel Johnson might Dominic Cummings’ trips to Durham and
have said: ‘Depend on it, sir, when a person Barnard Castle precipitated a steep slide in
knows they are threatened by a deadly dis- government approval.
ease, it sharpens the mind wonderfully’. Perhaps most important, there is evidence
Another way of putting this is to say trust is that public opinion is less susceptible to
what we resort to when we have little or no influence by the government or the media,

510 KENNETH NEWTON

The Political Quarterly, Vol. 91, No. 3 © 2020 The Authors. The Political Quarterly published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of
Political Quarterly Publishing Co (PQPC)
1467923x, 2020, 3, Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-923X.12901 by Nat Prov Indonesia, Wiley Online Library on [11/11/2023]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
or other sources of information, on matters May 2020; https://www.prospectmagazine.co.
of personal importance and impact. Covid- uk/politics/covid-19-exposes-the-nonsensical-
19 posed a real, immediate, and personal structure-of-english-governance-devolution (ac-
threat to health and life, and hence people cessed 27 June 2020).
7 See, for example, D. Demianyk, ‘5 confusing
generally formed their own opinions about
messages from Boris Johnson’s coronavirus
it, how the government had handled it, and press conference’, Huffington Post, 19 March
what action they should take to protect 2020; https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/
themselves. This makes the pandemic a dif- boris-johnson-press-conference-coronavirus_uk_
ferent sort of political matter compared with 5e73b6cfc5b6f5b7c540665c? (accessed 17 July
Brexit, for example, which is a more remote 2020).
and abstract issue for the future. If Brexit 8 W. Hanage, ‘I’m an epidemiologist. When I
has a strong positive or negative impact on heard about Britain’s “herd immunity” coron-
the bread-and-butter issues of daily life, we avirus plan, I thought it was satire’, The Guar-
may see the public shift from its ideological dian, 15 March 2020; https://www.theguardia
n.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiol
approaches to the referendum campaign to a
ogist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-
more Covid-19 mode of response. 19 (accessed 15/03/2020).
9 Report by the Comptroller and Auditor Gen-
Kenneth Newton is Professor Emeritus, eral, Department of Health and Social Care,
University of Southampton Readying the NHS and Adult Social Care in Eng-
land for COVID-19, London, National Audit
Office, 12 June, 2020; https://www.nao.org.
Notes uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Readying-the-
1 K. Archer and I. Ron-Levey, ‘Trust in govern- NHS-and-adult-social-care-in-England-for-COVID-
ment lacking on COVID-19’s frontlines’, Gallup 19-Summary.pdf; BBC News, ‘Coronavirus: UK
blog, 20 March 2020; https://news.gallup.c failed to stockpile crucial PPE’, 28 April 2020;
om/opinion/gallup/296594/trust-government- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-
lacking-frontlines-covid.aspx (accessed 20 July 52440641 (both accessed 30 June 2020).
2020). 10 Public Health England, ‘COVID-19: guidance
2 C. Smyth, ‘NHS fails to cope with bodies in flu for social or community care and residential
pandemic test’, Times, 27 December 2020; settings’, 25 February 2020; https://www.gov.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nhs-fails- uk/government/publications/guidance-for-soc
to-cope-with-bodies-in-flu-pandemic-test-8pn ial-or-community-care-and-residential-settings-
mdpdfx (accessed 30 June 2020). on-covid-19 (accessed 30 June 2020).
3 N. Titheradge and F. Kirkland, ‘Coronavirus: 11 K. Razzall, ‘Asymptomatic care workers
outbreak exercise showed “clear gap” in readi- unknowingly spread coronavirus’, BBC News,
ness’, BBC News, 5 June 2020; https://www. 3 June, 2020; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52927462 (accessed 30 June health-52912538 (accessed 30 June 2020).
2020). 12 R. Gilroy, ‘Nurses raise alarm after practices
4 See, L. Friedman, ‘Scientific advice at a time of sent PPE with altered expiry date’, Nursing
emergency. SAGE and Covid-19’, in this issue Times, 7 March, 2020; https://www.nursing
of The Political Quarterly. times.net/news/coronavirus/nurses-raise-alarm-
5 On the contracts see P. Geoghegan and D. after-practices-sent-ppe-with-altered-expiry-date-
Conn , ‘Revealed: key Cummings and Gove 17-03-2020 (accessed 30 June 2020).
ally given COVID-19 contract without open 13 National Care Association, ‘Faulty masks’, 2
tender’, OpenDemocracy, 10 July 2020; https:// July 2020; https://nationalcareassociation.org.
www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-inves uk/news-events (accessed 2 July 2020)
tigations/revealed-key-cummings-ally-given-840 14 A. Rimmer, ‘Covid-19: experts question guid-
000-covid-contract-without-competition/ (ac- ance to reuse PPE’, British Medical Journal, 20
cessed 16 July 2020); G. Monbiot, ‘ When April 2020; https://www.bmj.com/content/
secret coronavirus contracts are awarded with- 369/bmj.m1577 (accessed 30 June 2020).
out competition, it’s deadly serious’, The Guar- 15 Independent Sage Committee, ‘Government
dian, 15 July 2020; https://www.theguardian. failing to follow own school advice’, press con-
com/commentisfree/2020/jul/15/coronavirus- ference, 28 May 2020; https://www.independe
contracts-government-transparency-pandemic ntsage.org/government-failing-to-follow-own-sc
(accessed 15 July 2020). hool-advice-review-by-independent-sage/ (ac-
6 J. Denham, ‘Covid-19 exposes the nonsensical cessed 30 June 2020).
structure of English governance’, Prospect, 2

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© 2020 The Authors. The Political Quarterly published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Political Quarterly, Vol. 91, No. 3
Political Quarterly Publishing Co (PQPC)
1467923x, 2020, 3, Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-923X.12901 by Nat Prov Indonesia, Wiley Online Library on [11/11/2023]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
16 J. Gallagher, ‘Coronavirus: key evidence on datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregis
opening schools revealed’, BBC News, 22 May teredinenglandandwales (accessed 8 August
2020; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health- 2020).
52770355 (accessed 30 June 2020). 25 Full Fact, ‘Here is the transcript of what Boris
17 Independent Sage Committee, ‘June 1 too early Johnson said on this morning about the new
to re-open schools’, draft consultation report, coronavirus’, 10 March 2020; https://fullfact.
22 May 2020; https://www.independentsage. org/health/boris-johnson-coronavirus-this-morn
org/too-early-to-re-open-schools-on-june-1-says- ing/ (accessed 17 July 2020).
independent-sage/ (accessed 20 June 2020). 26 S. Berman, ‘12 weeks ago, Boris Johnson said
18 J. Gallagher, ‘Coronavirus: how dangerous is that coronavirus would have already “been
lifting lockdown?’, BBC News, 2 June 2020; sent packing”’, MSN News, 12 June 2020;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health- https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/
52878816; T. Hale, et al., ‘Lockdown rollback 12-weeks-ago-boris-johnson-said-that-coronavir
checklist: do countries meet WHO recommen- us-would-have-already-been-sent-packing/ar-BB15
dations for rolling back lockdown?’, research nzEX (accessed 17 July 2020)
note, Blavatnik School of Government, Univer- 27 Full Fact, ‘We still don’t know if the UK does
sity of Oxford, 29 May 2020; https://www. the most Covid-19 tests in Europe’, 2 June
bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2020-06/Lock 2020; https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-
down%20Rollback%20Checklist%20v3.0.pdf (ac- testing-europe/ (accessed 17 July 2020).
cessed 2 June 2020). 28 Populus, ‘Pandemic news continues to domi-
19 See, for example, ‘“Politicised nature” of lock- nate’, undated; https://www.populus.co.uk/in
down debate delays Imperial report’, Financial sights/2020/05/pandemic-news-continues-to-
Times, 23 May 2020; https://www.ft.com/con dominate/ (accessed 26 July 2020). See also
tent/41e98ccb-a39c-4f88-b444-74d50a76c383 Ofcom, ‘Early effects of Covid-19 on online
(accessed 6 August 2020). consumption’, April 2020; https://www.ofc
20 At a meeting of the House of Commons om.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0030/195069/
Health and Social Care Committee on 21 July covid-19-news-consumption-week-five-comscore.
2020, chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, pdf (accessed 6 August 2020).
defended the government’s ‘entirely practical’ 29 YouGov, ‘COVID-19: government handling
decision to drop its initial tracking and tracing and confidence in health authorities’, 17 March
programme in March, blaming the limited test- 2020; https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/
ing and tracing capacity on the failure to build articles-reports/2020/03/17/perception-govern
up the healthcare infrastructure. He also said ment-handling-covid-19 (accessed 30 June
that had been no ‘huge delay’ in the response 2020).
to the pandemic in England; https://commit 30 M. Smith, ‘Europeans think UK has managed
tees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/747/html/ (ac- COVID-19 poorly . . . and Britons agree, You-
cessed 8 August 2020).. Gov, 2 June 2020; https://yougov.co.uk/topics/
21 E. Yong, ‘The UK’s coronavirus “herd immu- international/articles-reports/2020/06/02/euro
nity” debacle’, The Atlantic, 16 March 2020; peans-think-uk-has-managed-covid-19-poorly-and
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/ (accessed 30 June 2020).
2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-herd-immunity- 31 An array of evidence to support this statement is
uk-boris-johnson/608065/ (accessed 30 June provided in K. Newton, Surprising News: How the
2020). Media Affect—And Do Not Affect Politics’, Boulder
22 Full Fact, ‘Government misses one of its CO., Lynne Rienner, 2019, pp. 145–160, 210–211.
Covid-19 test targets’, 6 April 2020; https:// 32 The figures in this paragraph are taken from
fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-test-targets/ (ac- YouGov polling reports in https://yougov.co.
cessed 5 July 2020). uk/topics/politics/trackers/government-approva
23 UK Statistics Authority, ‘Sir David Norgrove l; https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/arti
response to Matt Hancock regarding the cles-reports/2020/03/17/perception-government-
Government’s COVID-19 testing data’, 2 June handling-covid-19; https://yougov.co.uk/topics/
2020; https://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/ politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
correspondence/sir-david-norgrove-response-to- (all accessed 30 June 2020)
matt-hancock-regarding-the-governments-covid- 33 Ipsos MORI, ‘Spike in Britons thinking govern-
19-testing-data/ (accessed 30 June 2020). ment acted “too late” to address virus but con-
24 Office for National Statistics, ‘Deaths registered fidence in the NHS continues to grow’, 30
weekly in England and Wales, provisional’, April 2020; https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/
London, HMSO, week ending 12 June 2020; en-uk/spike-britons-thinking-government-acted-
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationand too-late-address-coronavirus-confidence-nhs-con
community/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/ tinues-grow (accessed 21 July 2020).

512 KENNETH NEWTON

The Political Quarterly, Vol. 91, No. 3 © 2020 The Authors. The Political Quarterly published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of
Political Quarterly Publishing Co (PQPC)
1467923x, 2020, 3, Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-923X.12901 by Nat Prov Indonesia, Wiley Online Library on [11/11/2023]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
34 University of Oxford, Reuters Institute and 39 Opinium polls, ‘Public Opinion on coronavirus
YouGov, ‘Less than half of Britons now trust 28 May’, 30 May 2020; https://www.opinium.
the government to provide accurate informa- co.uk/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-28th-may/
tion on the pandemic’, 1 June 2020; https://in (accessed 15 July 2020).
teractive.guim.co.uk/charts/embed/jun/2020-06- 40 Telegraph Reporters, ‘England’s coronavirus
01T13:57:54/embed.html (accessed 18 July 2020). infection rate significantly reduced before lock-
35 YouGov, ‘Voting intention: Con 45%, Lab down was eased, study finds’, The Telegraph,
35%’, 1 June 2020; https://yougov.co.uk/topic 15 July, 2020; https://www.telegraph.co.uk/ne
s/politics/articles-reports/2020/06/01/voting- ws/2020/07/15/englands-coronavirus-infection-
intention-con-45-lab-35-29-30-may (accessed 30 significantly-reduced-lockdown/ (accessed 18
June 2020). July 2020); YouGov, ‘Elderly people and res
36 Ipsos MORI, ‘Perceptions of lockdown timings ponses to Covid-19 in 27 countries’; https://you
—too fast, too slow, or about right?’, 8 July gov.co.uk/topics/health/articles-reports/2020/07/
2020; https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en- 17/elderly-people-and-responses-covid-19-27-
uk/perceptions-lockdown-timings-too-fast-too- countries (accessed 19 July 2020).
slow-or-about-right (accessed 21 July 2020). 41 J. Connolly, ‘Public attitudes and the manage-
37 YouGov, ‘Boris Johnson approval rating’, 4–6 ment of the COVID-19 crisis: the importance of
July 2020; https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp- personal responsibility’, LSE British and Irish
content/uploads/2020/06/Opinium-Political- Politics and Policy blog, 1 May 2020; Public
Report-25th-June-2020 (accessed 30 July 2020). attitudes and the management of the COVID-
38 M. Schudson, The Power of the News, Cam- 19 crisis: the importance of personal responsi-
bridge MA., Harvard University Press, 1995, p. bility (accessed 30 June 2020).
147; D. C. Hallin, The Uncensored War, New
York, Oxford University Press, 1989, p. 12.

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