33 lbnths 3.5 mnths laie date, if thcy could be relied upon.

It is
36 lbnths .5 nronths late entirely unsatisfactory for this purPose
38 hbnths 1.5 rmnths earlY if the rave being developed is I SrouP
10 llonths 3.5 npnths earlY i n s t e a d o f a s i n g l e o n e . I f r r s e da t , a l l ,
42 Months 5.5 nronths earlY fult eongidcration must be given to the
4l lionths ?. 5 nronths carly phaae shift, snd the fact that the result
If raves of about these lengthl scre may be inacctratc.
prescnt, their srms after guch phase shifts The hey to the use of Methods 9-A urd
rould not give a true re$rlt. 9 - B, and eny 8ccompanyilq Pnocess' auch
q-C md as r novlng periodic table, and noving
Arother objection to the use of
9-D i s thal thcy do n o t g i v e a 8 good lverafie conrbinations, is the Preparetion
elimination of other ravet as 9'A and of an-enptitude table for a dde range of
9 - 8 . T r c g r a p h s a r c a p p e n d e d( F i g u q e 8)- rave lengths, such aa the one on page 89.
dnring a ornparion of the action of 9-C It should be essumedthat vcry neny xaves
rith 9-A 9-D rith 9-R. This ahors nay be present, end that ell should be
thet Metlrods"na9-C urd 9-[J have very peC<cd nearty tlininated cxcept the one to be
bottonrs to the elirnination curve, and rculd chorn. It is rare indeed that a single
not, be vcry effective in rcoroving raves operation dll shor a tave rith any degrce
close to the one being fully climinated. qf fidetity, and e properly Prepared
tfse of ldethodg 9-C and 9-D puld be very urpl i fi cation tabl e changes strch^operations
desireble to give resrlts up to the current from guess rcrk to scicntific planning.

501 Finucial &nter &ri lding

Los Angelcs 74, C,alifornia
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l,at-.; L t . o .l a - ^ ^
,t .tat >>J , . aa , t.rt t . aa , t,l,{l ,,r5' t,t t o ,.n
.a c c - l ,,,t]
I '&.cc.o
.t* t..o t.a aa I >,r.o .oa ,tao
tt .+?t L'J{1 t.l t. .bt .*t | .t oo It . a + t ,.rt t.t t. ,...
tl lr -ltO . af I )).. a. .alt .Q.a-a ', ,1. l,l+q+
l l.ar,l,+t tl traL
,+ .t al tCoi t.ll o ,J a .o+. t.oc ,*f o' t.a a , t,.a
'J t.tra t.rrti ,,, tl t.>J t . . a a ," L.!o , a aa ' .Lcaa ,oo
ta t.at + l.oo1 ,,+r. > . ( c t.4l a I l.oo r ,llt J , o o t, , a l c l,oo
t l . t t a.t?l a ) a a ar-r t tata I t-?t . laa O.O-C t L..L

.ta t.?t* lJ.i . a aa t,5e ,.J4. ,,oo l.Cc'r.a.a

,tu +,,,J , . 1 f , II t c ,',,,J t.o I
tl ,.at t t.{l t.ltl . ? c | . + Qo *,o o
lta,c t,loI l,aal .Oaa l. aa | ..a *cc o oo; .aac
t LQ'. -rtl
--.tol -t.a a]l Lt_rt l--;p ;l.lfa . .r rl .Qlo l,t)
',t.Qa o .tat ,l,JO t . t t t I I t . o .
ll
,+ ',Laca lt.t, I l,{ol .tra 4.oo
.aal l . o o c e,.. , . r t t I l , o , tl.4tt 1..cit.at. 9,oo
,a -.a it.l at
l, al^
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t ull
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t e l f
l.to
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t.at 7 I t o .
t a.a. a I L a . ,
l t o- t l . " ' o i t , l ? ?
l . ta-a- l.co
I t t r a a 2
te ,.tt o ^ t,{ t,a.a , J,c u ,aac - .Lcao .aa
tr, t,t+ t 2 . o"ol -l ,?te : l,o o, .tt? ,.o. t,la / ,.. o
tl + l.7lo ,.icl .t+a 7,c o' .l t+ a.i e ,,aat D,s v
l r-, t) 3.p-cl J* r. &c r. t,oc. a,.c t,rt, 1.. g
rt t,arl J..fol . t a a Q.* t.lta t.tc ,.tr+ |,o t
Io t , ar a 1.co I ... cl t.+t + t.c o 1.11 I ,-l"o o
+* t.tal +,to I r t i't ' . t a..
.i.i ).to. t.,+? ( oo
a^
Qa
t ?ta. '*?tt- t.ta +
t t a a .4, -ta t aaA

t,+., | .+ool toi t , r , a t.to .l*o 6.0 I

CO ,.t a tt 3 J o . l.l . / 9,v'r | . a t 0 i to.o t.Qo t ,.t. .3t0 ,c.Oe
t+ l.ttt 7 .t . t,ate J.:-' . | .rrlt' ta.a t.llo t.to 5.t tr.:
L. 'J 'A Q.t-c. L t t a . f , Q t Iltt oc , ta.a o0 .oo
', 11 .cte0 0 ,acc
a3 t . . t t I o,io t.trr 3..ict I t , t t o ; t.,c l,f c' .r.. t t,c
?t .Qst /t,oo t.+,L l.tc t.ttti t.-c t.at ^ 4,,5 . . +t lta
t1 . a3 t Itttc' l . t C c l l . c c tl,|33i to-o , , a o t Lrll J . 4 3t tt.a
a,a t L-3 13ll' LLt a , r + e b l,t-ttl'. t.^o t t t 1

,.t , . a a ,r + o o l -l,Ott
t , a Q a l T t o ' . t.t,t7-- t cp t.ct, tt,(/, 1.lOI t t,a
llo t.aaaLo t o t,lt* ,e,0 t,Otl ,..',gO t.+t a ,t.a
-fr-f,I i'"t I
I

til Inn-,E|g8's8rt'l t0r ,0+

tlvt t.nr{o
i a roa Fbrrc .bu c : f r
I

.-?l to3 ?berc rh! t s l t x - )

,
- 2 1
' :t' .o# fhrro .btl t r l t x - ,
I
?l
t
,oT Pberc drlt t t l ( x - 3u)
gl
I
a"? Phrrc rhl! t r l t x - rf,)

IDRI rl,ll rcR HASE SfrI' FOR O-)

a _ toI FherC rhll t r l(ex ?)
I to t/z Pbrrc rhll t r l(aX' 3t,
tfq r; r/r Thrm rhl l t-tlzl .

t/s to t/r tbrrc .bl r - l(zx ?T;

 i
.---
a
t--- |
I t - {
 Figure 3
T h e S u m m ai o t n S i n e W a v e s l 8 U n i t s a n d l _ 5U n i t s l o n g o f V a r i o u sR e l a t i v e
A m o l i t u d e as s l n d i c a t e d f o r t h e i r F u | | S y n o o i cP e r i o do f 9 0 U n i t s .
 > T | \ )
) ) F P ) J P r . / P } 1 '
a a a . a
a a r a a a "
" " -l " \O O
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5 ' ' . . . . . I f ! ' ! ' ! ' f H P F P t o
b ; , i , r., r ar b { b io o a., ir u } <r a i b ?a b
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t 7 t A = n
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H P I . t t J P t 9 P } ' P t s P N '
a a a a . a a a . a a a a a a . a a a l a a
o r o a o o o N | } o c D o o N f ( D @ o N a ( D o o
 tegson IOKI
Poge 1

LESSoIIrc

Tha Str.rff lhi.hOn OI Cvole lne.lr'r{ r

llr. Atrahar Strclff, a conrultlng eo6lnoer of lletr fork Clty. haa ilcrc!,opcil i
ncthoil of cyclc analysle uhich'I ftn<t urcful. [hc aescncc of thc Dathoil le that,
t€ttcr then auly other nethoals, lt pernlts thc v*ce of tha corqroaot qtrc1e! to var|r
tn lcogtb anal in eryUtude.

I ftnd thc rcthoil ugeful to help rc to undire tanal tirc baBlc ltructurc of I
aerlcg of ft,3urcs. For purpoaee of forecaatlog, houcrcr, tt rhoultl bc rqplcnotcil
by other rothoats. Cyclae of lrrc€ular lerrgth anit of lrrcgulal splt tuil. a,r. baril
to proJcct !

tlr. Strclffre inethoil brcakr a curr6 tnto four pirta: tShort cyclc. r'nnlilillc
cycle,tr rrlong cyclc,n anil itrend.tr 1hsee four parts, uhc! ad'ileil togethcr. exactly
rqrroalucc th6 orlqlnal eutrr.

t Srr.drr E13qPi ntr''e Of tla l{.thod

To start utthr you c6uguta'a rhort rovtng aversga of thc ilata. IrlI tcll tou
later Juet hon to ilo thls. 1.e.. vhat klnil of a aorlng arerra€! to coqrutr.
ln oriler to tle thlg birils eyc plcture lnto the charts anal lnto th€ aletatlail
ilescrlptlon to follov lrn qolng to lottor tho rarlous co[rlrutatlons to conforD to
the charto ard to thslr rarlous columng on the uorksheete. In accorttancevltb
thls plan I ehall cell the d,eta r.r\i anil call the lhort novtng srcra€e n8.r

Next you erltress your atgta (A) ar <twlatlons froa your 6hort novltrg ererag€
(f). Thcse deviatlona (0) eri the flrst ep?forllratlo! of your rhort ctcte. [bcy
contah ratrilons, sholt cycles, end restt8e3 of your ntA(Ua ctclc.

llov you colrput€ s lonq nortne averaqe (L). Ihis novlng av.tege lr a nlr.turc
of tronil anil the flrst approain.rtlon of yorr long cycle.

lIe*t you cqprrls your ehort novlng averaGc (E) as alcrlattons fror your long
novlnq evcraqc (L). lhsro dwlatlona (ll) constitut€ the flrst qltrorlnatlo! of
yout nialilb cyc16.

After thts you figuro out rrhat lart of tho flrst alproxhatlo! of torr rhort
cycle ( c) ahouldt be renovcil anit adtlett to tha flret agrrorluatloa of your alilile
cyclc (ti). Call thig part lt. Ir11 ehotr ;r7oulater bou to flgurs tt ort.

Iake n out of G. vtrnt ts left after tou talrc I out of O la tour gbort ctcla.
o.
fdd f, to Il. lltrat you havc efter. you add theee yestlges (n), to H , ls a tecoDA
srrDroxlnatlon of your ntddle eycle (f ).

Norr fl€ure out uhat part of F belonee to the long cyclo, Cal] thle Part a-

Tatre Q out of P and edd tt to L, llhea Q te out of P, rrhat 1e left 1e your

 '(O oIrII) eutl PuocaB agl uo T8lol ISJTJ .mod eXTIr:,i 'poJeluec rg Elmlog
oluT 18od 'g Mttfoc uT sonTa^ aql
Jo IE?ol ?u1aou urelT-z € afi1 ;tDf,fg u{{lqf;
use?rrarlord nod pelga*ns eacr{ e1d'1e ebu1q1dee4 o1 'reranog ."uTr(;;::il:ll
I
ol s1sod,JJTarlS 'r1l 'psTtr uT uolqJolsgp BTql daal lsnT notr pr,m--eq Asu esuo or{l
sB 'alel auTI a Jo il_t d1.rre ouII tl Jo ZIT-zuIrrTl .rddo.rcig:o lno auTI B Jo Zl1.
"o ,glr{l op noA .auTI puocao eql uo ro
Tolol Eulaou eq1 Blnd lI ;1 IBrIJ eql raqlTa
uo l€+ol tulaou eq1 loocr'as;rnoc glo '.a'srunort luaTuaauoc eJosr lT puIJ no.( 511
.osTI lt uu
Jo poalsuT sauTl aql xruurl1iilt Tulol Fulaou
eql slnci tul.reltnc lcora 'Tclol tulaou .rnozt ol srrJel Jo Jaqung uelo uE aJu erg.ll sy
'8euTI puocos
PIIB IBITJ.UydEf,El[ f,biiplu laXol lsrTJ nrod allJn .eT lEq& .pe.laluec
*aoc uI 1T 18od 'al€p eql Jo Lslol 8u1aou tratT-z 3 afit. :rrTE Tuot'l S'
:a
'y earoc 88 paf.ra{c puy .1- urnfog ofut peleod aJIl .6eq6 .serntTJ
sel€s euos Jo se8e:e!€ Tenuw-Tures Jo elol ere alcuuere eql trf Dosn Blsp or{&
'toolts uoTleTnq€| B oluo €lBp or{1
lsod :&tIE fgrlf
FJnlssr{l
'rairnToc .6q umloc 'no.C .ro3l qlnorql olciurre eql ,.toIToJ .uaq&
lTsrts I
'noleq .cia1e .(q riels .e.rnpecold
V olqEil, u1 nod .ro3; elcitrara ue lno {106r ITEr{s I ua{[
eq1 nof ealt lErIJ TTBt{s I 'poq15u eq1 puelgrapnn ol noA rog 4esa lT o{-€rr oI,'
'r[8TA noX eauBr f,us
qI eelcdc el€IosT o? poqlsu erll asn usc nof, 'sa8c:als rua.d-g1 ro -S Jo -Z ol uaae
Jo '1trnuue ol dITe? uoJJ €t€p rno{ {q pa.roaoc polreci eq1 tullrlnlar Iq .sn{&
.uo oB puy :roo,
lr,'rf sg to zor r) nffiirzrtTsr
6 ro t lnoqs ol z lnoqa sorJ salcac 1no lurrq TTiA elcdi lroqs .moA'ttr0 Tgruug
-'[EFS een nof,;1 '?uo1 gqTuus
5:o t lnoe€ al Z Inoq€ uoJJ eolcaa 1no iu1rq. IIIA
e1c.&e lroqs eql €l€p AIIITU('II asn no{ gl1 'cla 'tuot y{ofi S ro t lnoqg ol Z lnoqs
troJJ selc{a 1no 9r1rq, I1IA eladc lror{8 ino{ 'Blap' iffftse asn no.t gl1 .{1ru1p1g
. selolc relsol pua
Puell oTlrl Jo ernlrTtr 8 eq TITA rpueJl'' .rno{ !?uo1 rfiep 4 Jo 6r lnoqa ol 6 lnoqs
qorJ seaaA 1no 3u1.rq ITTtr elcdc tuol rno{ ituol EfgT ro g ol
5 lnoqo 5 lnoqr EorJ
8oA€A 1rto tu1rq, TITA e1c{c aTppTr! rnoJ 3?uo1 Eff I rc.t ?noqr3 ol Z tnoqg Eo33 s61aaA
1no tulrq IITA a1c.6c lJoqs Jnoa B18p fr.lup o1 poqlaE aq1 .c1c.deno.6;1 'unlap qc33
dq pareaoc poT.red eq1 uorrn lsqAetroe puaclap Xno lqpnore eJB qclqn eeloAc cq6
rm u'f q TqR
SnoI rno.{ 11 lJer 8T lqltt f g rrog 1T otouer pu3 .
([,) puerl all'|tllea ."qr(*lr"1c'f,c
'S eI uoTl€uTqtrocsI\[ 'Due.rl
puB alc.da 9uo1 Io uoTlBuTqEocs eaaq nod T o1 pepp€ 8T ua{r.l . (u) elcrc oTtpTtr
0
Z eFrA
l[ uo88er1
 lesson XfI
Page 3

fglif! rran: tlake a 2-lten novtD. total of the veluss in Colun C' Post luto
(bettreen
Colum D, centnrd. Vtfie-your ftrst iotal batrr€en the &ril aail lrit lines
Ilace b anit c).

$,!i.h rtep: l{ake a Z-lter novlDg totel of the values 1u Coluol D. Pogt into
coruu-l, c eailreil. llrlte yoru flrst total on the thlrit llne ilorm frou the top
(ltac c).

rbe flfth ste!, glve3 you a z-tte! of a 2-lten of a 2-ltem of a 2-1tp-n nohg
lolal of the valuee ln Colun A.
coium
$l:li.b tL.es: Divlaic €w?t? verue ta Coturu E by 16. Poet th9 reeurt- ln
F on thirane itne a" tho nunler 1o ColurnnE nhlch ls telDg illv iiletl. (that ie.
rtlvlitsntl uoula !c polteA oD the thlril 1lne dova froo the toP of the p&€e'
th. ftrlt

ln ac tual practice tt vouLal be easler to mrlturly each value ln Coliun E ty the

recllrocal of 1-6. fhe reclprocal of 16 is of course .0625' A! yT l'l,o": y* l9l.t
elrrevs co4ute the leciprocal of e nunber t5r illvlillng I by the !u!t!er rlf = .vo.),

or by looklng ur the roclprocal of the nunber ln a table of reciprocals sucb as the

one startlng on pa4e J48 of your test.

Ihe alrth rt€.ir qil'es you a 2-lten of a 2-ltem of a z-lteE of a z-ltstr movhg
Afgf4e! of the Yalues ln ColunurA.
A 2'ltcn of a 2-1ten of a 2-lten of a Z-lten rnovlng averaeo 1€ a vei ghte'I
Jlotllg n?.rrgF of the folloving fornul&:
c, 3rtttern- a.!r+aI 6e I la I e
' 1 6
(or, rlt6e { r/4t I 3lB" I tlha } tlt6e, vhlch le the Batre thing),

vhere a = flrst tern, b 3 secondltermr c 5 third tern, d = fourth tern' etc'

Tou can 8ee hor lt bulld.s up lf you letter er.ch tern as follotrs:

CoI, ]1 Col. 3 CoI. C Col.. D CoI. E Col. F

(rrt tern) e
alb
( zna tern) b alztle
bl" ahahcla
(3ra tern) vlzcJa al4u{6elaal"
cld allcllale L6
(trth tersr) clzale
dlt
(5trt tern) e

Obviously the l+th tern voulrl be a I r+cI & l ae,{ t , etc.

16
 .d uEnIoS JoJ ood roJ
DTP 1 ea sJelleT Jo lno Jte srno.it roJ dn €TnaroJ aql ?Ililt uBo nod qsTA no.. JJ
(zlr'o 'zlrto
elq?TeA ssr{ E:lE:rCrr tq ^ot! aql !I .O .I Jo slrttTeA
V"r{ EfFfuf 9u1'row.eqg1'
.I qsnToCuT senTe^ eql ,o ,O ,"1'
,O ,ZlT Glt
ElrFIor{) etar€^r 3ul^os plqtlaA uolT-Z e to rclt slqllaA) a!ra.r!.o lc1abu
pa1q91an.lrell-7 I f,o 'O 'Zl1. Bl,{glon)'eloroar.?ilaorl pa1q91earira11l7i
Gll 3o
Gll'O'Z/I erUelenl Eiliae.SrTAor pa1q31aArua1l:2 a 3T araq e^aq noJ lq1t
' .6isre!r
tuleor 3uo1 JnoI BT BIqI| .I umlog uI uolllood tuTpuodeerJoi eq1
1r llnser eq1 lroil pur 91 Il X usntoC sT anle^ qc€a epT^IC :IFTE EEItf,:t
'x Esnloc Jo osII qlua^o8 eql [o
l€lo1 eql alTrl .x uimloc oluT 18od -f
@nloc sI senl?^ elasretl8 aql Jo Ialol tul^m uoll-z a aiplt : lFTt qI6EE
.f E![rloc
Jo auII qllls aql uo lElol t8rTJ erll €llr/i .t uEnloc otsT l.od pse
J urnToo 14 aenl€^ alall.rstlB er$ Jo lElot tulrour aell-Z B o{Efi :tttTt e[E]t
.I rr$IoC
Jo osII
qIJTJ er{l qo Tatol lsrlJ rno.{ ollrA .BI lEqJ, .poretuao .t uErrIoColul tsod pu3
B llsnloC trT senTa^ el€arells eql Jo l€1ol tul^ots uell_z 3,e)tBtl :aT'E qT|rra
I r{tT,r
.o ro tqrTeA . errr .r so1qplanqrri,tptr
,uolT tDq eq[ .t Jo lr{t}?4 E qlIA o euII uI ptrs (tT epnlou! toq plp noa
" { .IoC";1.til;:ti3.l#li'^fr"Hlrn$
.eroJeroql)
O Jo li{9laA r{lTA pouTI ,X .IoC .1 3o 1rp1in E -{lIA a auII d .Ioo
ol.ell€^ "
eql pepF lalol tqlrou rnoJ Jo |!re I ?6rIJ aql .sT lErtfi .I prrB .O .I Jo
aa€T€a qlIA IE:rUT SuT.iou pelrFlaA e go pu11 xiqloue BT orer{ e^€q no.Clsr{A
.
.p.pp€ aaaq noX ssnf?l oAl er{l rEaAlgq.tnApIE
(p eu!t) .E
umroc Jo suTI qunoJ eql so l€1ol l8tTJ oql elTrtrt -paroluec .g rrrnloS -o1q .,ipa
-eI sql lsod . ala '8!!re ? qlrnoJ pu" puocos . sural prTrll puo
'r uqnroc ur senrB^ yTtrq[? 1-r1g p1o1 . sI lBti&
eql Jo tslol 'u1aou rua11-7 r elqi : ortF rlrrpEi
.a
Io.Co lroqs notr Jo uo11.--urlrorcideIBIIJ aql cre O .IoC [I senla^ .qI'
r11e1ueueq+
oss.s :llJ; ff$3.i'J,TH^":llr3:t
ppr*.c".rro3."lqff H:i:i:l
oql deel ol ss or sllnsel oql ol OOO.Z pple ol lsalrr^aoo sI 1I .3>oI rI a.rr Elsp
eql rs 'r.!sAqt . lraqqnq - prre ee pereerdte eq plnoo .IoC uT.slTnscr.r$
/ O
,,'" trltllo3_Jo errler Srlpuodaarroc oql 4JeJlaqna V rDmloC uI enlsa qr€a aoJfr .IBa ol
pe.u re_5uol ou .sr ,lno o1 peeu op 03 q11e
I lsth, 11 11edc tos I l€r{t sern$5orc
TaIIIEEI .cllmT.ItJns eq pTnoqs notr e(r11 sFtl trq. l€ql 4r4q1 onnToC uorj g rurn
-IoC lcrlqnsr 'loejJe uT pT€s [oTlolul.gl I r.V
'ecglou
J eaoq€ oql u1 1eq1 llFr uol
.puorl Jeqlo ro etE:er8.?uT^ou aql Aoloq
(no.rJ alq|,I)
ro a loqg err Blsp eql qcTqn Jq Blunoaa eq+ eI€ . rsqueuler no.d .reuol1r1rg"
tqlrouparrpTeA
eqruorr.v .elgp ,o ,o3rffig3':l.tH";";*t,*i$ ffitt"^'
"o*
n atud
D8 UOBSerl
 lcreon EI
Pac. 5

Sblrlg.nf.h atO: Conuute the devlatlon of thc valuee tn Colun f fto! tbo
corrcspolallnE lraluos h Colun !. fdit 2.000 to avotil !.gatlv. rmlbcrs. Port thc
results in Coluur ll. Ehese valuea aro thc flret apprort!6t1o! of tout dAa1c
cyclc.

tmrrtrpnth 4!gp! Chs1.t tha valueg of Colqn G. (Sec Curr6 0)

lrft.errh ttoD: Chart the valucr of Coluor l{ hDcdlat cly brloE tb6 clrs^rt of
Colrro G. (See Cune Il).

Elrteer,lh rL.en: lui a reillan ltne through thc nav ee of Colunt or Sec Qurc
f. Let lt ap?rorinate Co1uo l{. Call t}.tg leillea X. Ecarl off ra'luer aail rccoril
theu ta Colunur !1. I|II illscugs later Just hon to cotlputa thle acillaa.

!-ccotcs!,ib !l,c|l: Subtract cach YAlur of the beillsn lf fron the corrca?olillDc
velue of G. Record the rerult ln Co1unn O. llhe rceulf 1! ysu! !ho!t cyclc.
(Sec Currc o).

ErfihtcFn$r rt.F: ldit the ncdt an ]l to thc dwlatlol ll. Secbrat la Coluur P.
Ihla k the geconil apororlnratlon of your diLlla cyclc.

IllqLgtlth !i.lo: Chalt Columr P. (ses curvo p)

- &.o.tLcttr rtcg: Chart tho values of Coluro L belotr the clrart of Cohuo P.
(See Curve L)

Tventy-fr rct $,.eq: Rrur a ncillan line thou€h Co1un P. (Scc Currc Q) let
tbis neallan regenble Oolunur !. Rsad off values of neiltan alit post h Colunr Q.

EvonLr-racqaA rtcO: Suttract Colusr Q frour Colum P. Poat reeult ia Coluu

R. ftt""" yorr! uldille cyele. (Sec curvc 8)
".fun" "o""tftute
lfuoty-thr r.d rta$: Addl Coluro Q to Coluur L. Recor| recuftr ln.Colun S.
fhlg glves you the conttaatloa of loug cycle anil trcod. (Sca Curvc S)

frantv-rntrth $.lg: R6 a neillaa llue throu8h S. (See Currc [) Recoral

valuer ln Colunn I. fhese vglueg are your trentl.

IssdJr-tutb d.sD: Subtlact Coluno !! fron Coluu S. -Post rcnrlt h Colun

u. Theso i8lues coo"iltot" your roag cycle. (see oune u)

Srr[Lt-;f.rtI !f.e: le a checL,.iid Yaluo3 1l colurr r (trePd).-colum u

(ro"affi)FLtFfi (tiraare cvc:.i), Enil colurm 0 (ahort cyclc). su" shoulil
equsl values ln Colum A, the flgrres rrl th vhlcb you startrd.
(coluu 0). your ulCitle cycle
Ino.!i-arasl!! !isD: Chart vour- short cycle
(
(colust R), your loug cycle coluan U) aail your tren'l (cofun'rr'

TFarrty-c{ rht}r qtaqt! ProJect each of tbo four culvea ebcre. a' best you canl
la the vatr ta tdrlch they hare-been golng' conblne' fhlc ls your forocast'
 'puoJl tu11ca:1
-qo8 f,q pss (d) e1c{c eTppTlreql Jo uoT3€rrTro.rddelsrTJ eql punoJ . (t,) olc.Ac
_uT
tuol eq1 Jo se311se^ eql 3u1ppe.cg eloxc tuol ;rno^ 1e3 no.f 11uoJg lpuart pua
elcfc tuol .rno.d;o uoTlstrTro.rcidslsrTJ er{l sT 'a?€rsas Suyaou.retuol mri{ 'T
qcrqA
no..
lno{oo1 ""i;"}""11,t3"ff:::3*;*;;il:TitlT":r"?"i:
e1c.rc'3;llf
elppTu aql 1e? no1 'a5t.raas tulaoq buol eq1 rro$ e'?reao tulaoru 1.roqo e{l Jo
BuoTlETAap eq1 .d1e.rau Brll 'a1o.dc eTppnl er{l
Jo uoTl€urlroracis IsJTJ or{l sI }t
'c u1 tuluTEoel e1c.dc oIppIE eqt 'Itr
Jo e311sea aq1 lsBrlqns- no.c p uort (o) e1c.dc
lrol{B Tsnlr€ aql 1at o6 'e1c.dc lsrlJ.rrwf gio uolleulrorode lsrT} eql if-O
'spron reglo uT uTeta roAo
f I pIaB I JT <ileq plnoA XT
ederlred 'pelsalT(1l[oc pwroe .rtbu
tT pT8rJ8 urB I ?nq aTolr1s .d.rea s1 slr{l IIv
'pueJl pua e1a.Cc
tuol .mof nof, ea1? ol T ol peppa ero b elcfc buol aql Jo eogllsa^ aser{il,
'e1cf,c aTpplq oql uI ?u1u1eua.r
ITT1B e1c.dc 3uo1 eql
Jo setllse^ eql 'b lno e)pl no.d ruorJ a1c.dc lroq8 oql uT uoeq s€q qcTqn a1c.cc
4
eTPPTt[eql Jo satllsa^ eql tulppt o1 uoTtTpp€ uI 'd .o ,N
1e3 ol Jo tno rioox no.c
8€ 'qcA1n pur '61o.dc 1ror{s eql Jo uoTl€trTrorcids-IBJTJ or{l uT areA r{clqA e1o.Ci
alppp eql Jo s?Sftsea aql 'aaoqa pTuB sn 'ppa uaqtl no.f 'ft'rara11ed c;saq ct{f
o6 ;1 etr.raaa 9uy^otr eTppTT eqt trorJ g els-raae ?u1aou fjbql ai{l Jo suoll€T.e.p
cq1 3u1uT81qo Aq peAlrap 8T lt a1c.Cc oTppTu eql Jo uoTl€rrlrorctrcre IsJIJ srttr,
'8uo1aq op daql aroqA .ll ol papp€ ftuolaq
lnq
l,uop 4eql eIeqA 'e trorJ uerFl dluo lou 3Js ee?11eer asar{6 'afodc alpplq sq?
Jo setllsa^ eql .fq uollrolsTp urorJ peorJ a1o.dc lroqs eql Aoq- ol eldnello poqlau
'g roJ} g tu11ce.r1qns .fq rua{& 'ea1c.dc .ra8uol
]Jfarf g e{f lxeu er{l Jo atTlsea
8Trll a.rnldeo o1 'il esTT uBTpau eql Jo suserl .dq 's1dualxs por{ler JJTarfg e{tr
'ff:ii;
tulao.BsolrssoTr'#"Ilj"rfi;":I'3l*ril":?lmi#TH;i,:."$:fi
Pu3 'eelcfc re3uo1 gio edol oql JJo Blnc egs.rear tulaou..due lar{l lcBJ e{I
'o ea.rng
Jo Jalo"J3qo T€TlueBsoeq1 eturqc
lou teop eterear tulaoq palqpTeA B BT tT tsr{l XceJ oqfi .e8slaro tulaoa 1.1ottl
.C1ae1lrTer ? rlol3l suoTloTasp eql .{1a.teu BT sseco.rd,eaoqa ei{l Jo 0 urnlog
tttrrFl'il
1oI)qFueI*.{;[":;r;:':,il;3frffff;j::'o#ffi,il':e.ffi
'roIAE({oq
TEqua aql slTJ lT I elqlaooci ge TIan s€ .lgr{1 oE uolloeford cg1
esTAer .d.rpeeeoeuJI 'uollelnciTtrer[
Jo seecord aql .fq lsoT uaeq 8eq l€{l pol.recl
eql rero rolddqeq Tsnlcg r{lTn uoticaforci eq1 ercdruog itrF qTaf[-rflFqt
9 ated
I)c{ U O B S € 1 1
 Lesgon )O(I
Page ?

TA3I,E A

Aa Eraryrle of a Cycle Analysle

by the liethode of l'h. Abraham Strelff
Bs Alrnlled to the Strlpnente of Prodtuct X

A c D E- F

trne Dat e Logs A Z-lten A z-lten A ?-ttcu A Z-tteu Sbort Dor.

of novlng, novlng novlng nwlag av3rage.
Data totel total total total (.[ z-lten
of data, of CoI. B of CoI. C of Co}. I) ofa2-
centcred centered centereil centereil lteu of
e 2-1to
of a?-
ltem m.n.
of data,
centered.)
(col, E
. .6)

a Ist ff '35 1-998

4. 113
b 2ntl f, t )s 2.L15 8'390
4.zn u.090
c Ist H tj6 2.].62 8.700 34.809 ?.I?6
4.423 1?.7r8
d zDd H ')6 2.26L 9.0t8 35.?06 2.232
t+.595 17.ggg
c lgt R '3? 2.3J4 8.970 35.5r5 2.220
, 4 . 3 75 L7.527
f ? n dA ' n 2.041 9.557 34.501 2,L56
It.r82 L6,9?tr
t Igt E '38 2.rt9r 8.4I7 33.862 2.116
4 -235 16.gg8
b 2nd E '38 2.O94 g.t?t 33.W 2.Lzl+
t+.2)6 17.089
t lst F '39 2.142 9.618 3t|.563 ?,!&
t+.382 17.t+?4
J 2[d E '39 2.240 8.856 35.w3 2.215
It,4?4 l?,969
k lgt E I ttO 2.231+ 9.113 35.59? ?.285
4.639 18.598
1 hd n r00 ?.l+Os g.tt85
4.8116
E lst f, rbl 2.t*L
 616'r >{
9itt'rt Szo'z f
TzL'g 6€€,'rt z96'T
6€€'tt 619'B glz"tl 0/6'r q
5t5't Lgl'z LLg'ie Lgz.LT zr9'g 0tl4'+t 9go'z z
|rtr€'Lt 899'8 9ee'i 5gg'r J
zel'g 886'f, fftl'Z e
966'tt 6z0'z
986't
-
( T ' r o c:
o0o'zt (9r i
g .Ioc) x 'roc)
.lUgC '8'g
(T 'roc) ( r ' r o c ,-
'3'['PlA lroq8 Jo 000'z t
.e.E .plA
tuol tror; v 'roc)
aelI-z 'aL 'aol[ e
(x 'roc) (r'o'r 1 r ' o ' T (r ' o ' t 1i'o'r
'3'E 'pln ? Io aelT rrq?r?lr) rrq?r9r.r) o1{31e61 et1tlari) lJoi{3 eql lI
-gelO 'perelmc 'per6luec 'ps.Ielueo 'PeJetuoc trorJ €l€P I
lroq8 'I 'A9q
JO'l9C uDlI-Z E 'f roc Jo [og Jo
'g roc to 'g ro3 ;o JO I
'ela.6o 'clo.do
Jo sell-Z . r9lol . r"lol te101 18101
't? .AOE 'Pll ' aoB 'plA '. to8 'PlA '.a o t ! ' P l A
eIppTE to Y) lroq8 Jo
'rou tuol ECII-Z Y rrsll-Z 'tolci.dn 'ltl
.rorids lcl EOTI-Z V trelT-Z v V
-li- -r --T-- -r --
T
PenslluoC--V C{g\ile
I atud
1g uoesat
 Iresson fiI
Pege 9

IAEIjE A-Contlnred.

llcdlan of Short Second llcdtan of lltealc I,ong frcod. tonB

rravct 1n . cyels a14pror,l- ugvcs ln cycle eyclc lled,l,an of cyclc
Col. O (Col. O natlor Col. P (cor. P & frsnd varcs ln (cor. s
L dctcrrnlncd.
I z.ooo. of uldldlc dcter' J 2.ooo (co1. L CoI. S I 2rooo.
1. Graph- - Col[i: cyclc. nlnad - Col e) /-2.000)
c o t s dctcr- - Col. T)
n leally ( Col. ll gsPh- nlnetl
c I col. F lea1ly gaPh-
- 2,(no) lcaIly

?.020 1.956

2.043 1.996
2.On 2.O87
r.975 1.910

e 1.965 2,050 t.9llr l.gg5 I .9Ig 2.L62 2.190 L.n2

J
k

I
 .f uEnloc Jo I euII uo atsol.q snIB^ I.tslqA snld
f t!8rloc Io , .srI @ l8z'Ll Jo t[u eql .q PInOr{tr tnmloo uI anTBl lD|l eq,[
'e6e'lr
'erIAe:lTI P.ltFlqo .T
pERff6'at Jo ao3 eql .l u9'q€ I umloC !X uanloC
'zI9'8 rnlat ZeL'g to ut3 eql 4 +{€,'Ll '! EmToc uort pouTEt.lo33A
t
usnloc l€ttl f3'| err3a eql qI I ulnloo ulodl Peslalqo tT f lEnloc 3f umloc
.:9€t'n Dro 966:t.Jo !m3 qql 9I .zla'8 'o renloc oorJ D€ulslqo 33,t
g anloc 13t1 JtA os83 oql uI f, usnloc Eo€ peuT€lqo 3I I ulttloc : t omloc
'e?€d eql uAoPtlo 03 Pur tenloo Jo
O 'l
t oET'Juo 588't Ptlr O @tIoC Jo D est.I uo 6?.0'2 'UIPp3 trq Peolllqo sI 986't
anloc st .lrl3 Pllooe. .qI| 'rrll'z D[3 986'I Jlent€u 'o tllfrloc qT e PrrEo reu!'t Jo
e.nla^ eql tulpp€ lq p.utrlqo 3I p eolI uo 96C'i cnf!^ l8rIJ eql :f, ErrIoC
'reatm rnol 1€ ol Zgl'tt rorJ
9eI'Z lc?rlqnr nof eollorrd
nI '0oo'? SuTDEnPqr d untloC EorJ 9al'z tuT1o8rlqn3 Pu3 v urnToc rort z9t'z
qtTA bullJsl. lq pesTalqo .I gg6.I enlr^ fsrlJ eql 'on{I 'ooo'z SuTpDi 'araqann
.^Tlst.[ ploas ol 'DEV 'y ErttIoC uI .nl3a iuyguodrerroo .ql uor3i I u.lrlog uT
r.nlr^ aql Snlloarlqn Jq DeuT?lqoerl urnloo .Tt(l ET renT€l srll :O unloo
.o1c,9ZI.?
rlmDc pepcror P|rr gI Iq ieDT^TDc aut'I st 809'fr6 'etsrera qe ol t ranloc Jo
al8lol orlt ecnier 01 gt Jq PePI^Ip Aoll 3l g uanloc ul enral qorg :I rEnloc
'(zIztzzz, r . s l l 9 I u e : i 3 lu . e q
crf,t v Erloc uI .ent3 rnolr"a eql Aon Jg .cle '8IZ'4I pu3 060.eI Jo rna eql .l
.trlrr eua. .ql uI peqlalqo era urnloc sTBl sI renlal eqI| :t onrloc
s0s.fr6
'c1. 'c uBloc nI
OOe'g ?tt3 066'8 tqIDF & petrfslqo .T c usnloc
ttr el|TE^ l.rTt .qt 'o{o.cl :nrtu ..tlralTalr p.rl€lqo rt c u[lrloc :[ unrtog
.!eqf a.aAl.tl go p51ra1 |o|tTt eql no IIu .g nrntoo
C antoC trT ..nIBl etn l$lt
a[ .enIB^ eql s.eAl.e &rqllr pclrod er8 C qmloC ul renlB^ cql tr l3ql .le[
'Czt'q ese lJz'tt to
!!n .ql _rI 004.8 .l,lz.+t put 6fi.t Jo cn. .ql .I 066.9 rn{e .e rlnrlec sr re||nttJ
;o rrlre .ll...cmr tsfpl|3 dt D3rTglqo crr O anloC u1 rcalrr cq6 :O TEBICC
.pe1n&o6 cJr Jcqt qoTqA rorJi
v BIeC
Jo .cBIs^ eq1 ricanleq &ArIq pcporcr crr { rmloC rq renle^.ql tql efct
..rr, ,zgt z $n ,1 r6lql BI
tII.z Ilccrc
.eaftl Drlql Dr iEocnr eql trTpF Jq Deulotqo rI I ErIoO [I cnIB^ lTeE .{I
'5II'Z Drn ^"tcrrc 'Y r[oleC 3I
3.nf.^ oAl 1.rT, eql ?uTpF Iq l.sl3leo.T '6II't 'enlpa 966.1
lsrlJ oqfi :g.roleo
rnrl1r4r@r5 16 W
or ehd
l)Q( uo8eerl
 Leseon)qI
Pa6e 11

Colunr 1,: Ebe vahiee hcre are tLe values ln Corunurf, dlvta€d ty 16. :[hre,
34,6?? a*Ld.,l by 16 ls, vhen rour<lett, 2.16?. lle illvlde by 15 for thc saoe reaaon
. tlat ffc illrlttedt colu:rr I !y 16 to get Colunn F. Tha process of adtlltlou bas butlt
up e total of 16 tema in Colulur X.
GolunurIl: The'va1ue of 1.9+9 la Llne g, Le 2.1L6 la Colun I nlaug 2-16? Lt
Co1ua ! plus 2.000, to keep the values obore anil lelov 2.000.

Coluur lf: Ihese valueg are ottelneil gtaphlcally fron Colrrn O ald aatrually
ltart ltt Llae c becauge Coluur G can be couputeil back to liae c.

Cohun ll leoas a'litlIe blt of aiscutglon. To ilrar'r yout cleatla'! ltne f, ln

tbo cha^rt of Colurur o, you r:rakea, n:^rk on each leg of cach cycle halfiray batu€e!
tbo t6p anil totton of that leg.

vherc tbe top antt/or botton is fla.t tt k a good plaD to estlDat-. th€ toP
at thc place tt vould ie lf it coulat t. rrlotteaL betrreen the llnes. Ule ilotteil
llaee to lct tlre cycle Eo u_oor ilova to lts €stlnatod top or totto! batvcsn the
Ilae ralue.

Sor coloect these polits that you haTs n,.rkea on the 1€g! of tho cyclcs ln
Cune O ;ith a ;ured line, to agprorirnete'ag learly as possible the navca ta
COuo ff, obtct,. to lnetructions, you hnve plotted benegth Co1um G'
"c"oraing
The idea ts to ta!(e out of Coluirn G the vestlges of Columr ll that hsto Deen
l{ nhare
left ln it !y nethod of constnrctlon, srral to ailil thage back lato Colun
thoy beloag.
llhen you have dravn your neilia,n line I{, reai! the valueg fron tbe cbert adl
plot then tn Colum lI.

Coluna O: Tbe valuee here are obtalned !y subtracthg frora eech va.lue ln .
Colulu O the corresoondln4 value ln Coiunn tl ind adding 2.000 to tcep the valuce
pi.iti"". The ttret f" Coturm O, 1.965, 1s obtohed by subtrictl'E Z.O2g'-
ibe tlrst valua h CoI; "J,,6 lt fron I.986, the first ?alus h Coluro 0, alat aiitilg
2.000.
The other valueg are ottalnail. slnilelly.

Coluran?: 3he value of l.91ll, the flrst valu6 ln thie coluD, ls obteln'd
by adiling the valu: ln colunn ti to'tho value ln colun x ala subtra.ttlt 2.O0O.

Ho put tnto l{ the saDe valuee that ve took out of G'

Colunn Q: fhese values ar6 obtaiheil graphlcauy froo ColutD P iu the sallc tay
tbat Colum 1l vag obtained gralhlcallf fron Co1um o'

Ae the valuee ln ColurnsP cannot be codputoil prlor to ltne 0 thc vslueg Of

Colu.m Q start ta Line g aleo.

All the values !n Coluna Q are reail fron the chart '
 .IplseJelul BJa nod qclqA uI BoJnETJ Jo BoTJas Jaqlo .dua .ro 81sp le4rtllt )toot8
Tsrrurrs psuTquoc 3,10o6 $r€ pJ€prpls at{l Jo s1s.d1tut JJIerls e>F}t 'f uelQoJ6
"
srEITgoud
' 'C 'uoltulqser.: 'elueurrrcql Jo luepualulredng uorJ eceyom-{$7 roJ
C
$t?noq oq trec pelayrd err selcTlla eser{l r{cF{A trI sr.lafreg Jel{feo1; .ctqluon eql|
'66--96 eeit4 'gZ5T 't{crBtt 'ne;ae6 .ra{fte1i Itqluql
'962--682 ce?e4' '9261''{Tnf inalaag re{fee6 A1q1uor1
'
;eno11o; sB ,reT^su ra{fea4 f,1q1uo11
eql uT peluedde a^rr{ qcTqA BeIcIlrB oi\l uT asn rTaql Jo aalducrc $arslot uaa18 sBrl
prnr Bpoqles sTq roJ uoll€cTJllsng leaTlsoeqt'uu eql paupltrb seq JJTerlS '{l
strl'uFrqrsE
'oaTlonpord leoq aq o1 .d1a411 sT
{Jotr JaqlJrtJ oJeqA ssgrs
e6oql uodn aoTlrrolle.rnod Balerluecuoc lT ?sr{l 8T ?I aes I ea poqlau.ql Jo ssett
-fnJern e{g, 'selcrc lueuo<inoa eql Jo rlrea Jo epBtr sq plnoqE saTpnls peIIqaB aJoI
'seTJas 8
lql TeeJ I9uTlssaeroJ Jo aesod.rnri.rog Jo a.rnlarLrlE uTslr ortl aJTraIc
ol dTeq 'eu .ro1 lsql ert eleXlrun gio spor{letr J}f arf g e{f Jo anler or{g,
.^"Oa
trcr.nrFntsTir
\ 'noA SulsnJuoc rsorJ deal o1 .d1ga1qa lnq pua sTql tt )troA
ea€s ol .CTq;rad'suollelrulnoc eq1 Jo lsar aqt uT 1ITJ of poJeqloq lou a^sq I
.soTl€I
.- Jo pruolElrT 3a);€fuocrad go &;ol Jo 8ul.I3l IIr sorlf'ga rnoa ud:ru:[ rrl'Jroul
-ro tulppy -.qoTBI'^Tp ol
O00.i Fullmrlqrrf lualcap&e BI 11 lc€rlqns nof ueqA
'uolltc1r.ciTtTnq ol '8urql1.re.,\o1rllT&l ?u11eep e.re nol
luelaalnbe sT lT ppe no4 ua{R
roQtrelreg otllTT B eq. ^eur g9g'Z SuTtc8rlqns ao 3u1pEB Jo rollsrc BTr{il,
ltonfuoo 's{ceqc qaTqn
I?I'z lo JoA8u3 u3
m aap ol OOO'9 ssoT O9O'Z en1d,6T6'T snld 061*'Z tnld ZL6't sT cTlaqqllra eql
esBc ETltt u1 'y rn[nToCuI anTEr' SulpuocrEerroo eql let ol (OOO'9 esJnoo Jo osa!) g
urnfog $t3 'g rrlnfog '6 uunfog f1 utrnfog PPt no.f, 11nse.r.rrui.f rlceqc o6 :{carlC
trEBToo
uorr zgt'z sTBuBrB sTqr'{"ffit;ir':;L2tt;: :llJ: 313't,;"S"ioftot
.unrBr? oe aunc bq1 uorJ p€er ueql err Benf"A o{6
'g urnfoc uT eelcxo snolrlB^ eql Jo etel eql Jo 1u1odp1trsql q9norqt e3t3ueqlo Jo
sarna {cEeJg a qlpl ouII rr"TpaEa tulurm.r {q PauTEIe+ep8T puoJfi : I troloc
'OOO'ZSqTlffirXqns pn€ uEnfog trorJ L9T'Z ol
T t,umfo3 uorJ 566'I tsTppo
Itq paulElqo 8T 'zglt' 7 41erea 'usntoa 8Tr{1 uT enlsa lsrT} srG ss uurnloc
't66' 1 tr1euru 'b
rnralog Jo enT"a tulpuodseJ.roo eq1 SuTlc€rlqn8 pua 'tlT6'1 aleueu 'd sunlog f,o eBlua
SulpuodEorroc aql ol OOO.ZeuTpW .6q,pauTBtqo BT 616'T Jo enf€a e{g; :U uEntoC
'1 rrrnfoC eTq.lgsod EB qcrl[ 8? eTqEassr o1 ee .d?n B qcns ET uAsJp cT tagntog
b
g1 e3a4
Ilt( soeseT
 LESSONNrI
Pagc Ig

- \ o

to3s
i : . : . : . : : : : - - ; i: :. ii.:i : ' ;: -I r;-:-;l l:i :- -| i:i ': Ii ;:::; _
: jl !: :i i' 'i i: : , , : , j j j ' _ : i i j ] l
,/lr;iIii:iiiijliuii:
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. . , : . . i
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i ; :; :- ,. -. -. ::::i . . : : : ' : i . , , , ; , ; , : , : : i i t : ' ;: i r ; ' i, i : t '
i: ; : : i i i : . . i :
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t \ l i , l l i l ' I . : 1 l l il ' ; T . l ' i l T l i F

l# , j \ 1 . i; : i i ' i ; ; ;i : i i ' i, l .
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4--L4
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: ' l ' : : I i : . i .i :! : r . . : : ; : : '

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. i r I

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, : ; i : , : . v ' : ! ; . :! : : : : : : : : . !:

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i : : :--Tl : I l . : : : l: : i , ; j ; : j j i ! i : i ; , :i ; ,
l ; l i : - t , ' l :'-'.:-:i,i
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l.l t

,.taa

lrr
J.oco
, ?tt t)rc ,lJt j)c(
.0l.lo
Flg. I .ri Serles of Sales tlgures
 u sTpatr'{? srT,{ eqx Jo +uaurdoloaec z '8T.{
tta I ot,l thtt oAat tlU
iiiiii,i.i:riiiil::
-., . :-- --:
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' 1--i-i-------i-i-:-:-i-i-::-i
: i:
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; i . . ;' , ' : . ' , .i . ' 1 . : . 1 , i ,,,i-i
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 Page 15

Flg, S DeveloBment of the Seeond !{edlan

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j + n U ; i i + - j r - i ' f i i i l : :i :; :1i : : : : i : . :
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fr.' i l:f;{ l-i iii; I ii ;-t-:}.;;i:tj$-i
r: ,-.:.t-{r I r

trtg t?/o /rJf flfo /,tC

Flg. 5 The three Cycleg ( rnese three lrre6Plar cyeles, plus trendl (T ) ,
o q u eI t l s t a ( A ) ) .
 'aFolaas 3u1aou qolT-6 ertl Jo e?EJeas 3u1aou
ega.raap tulaou Ea+T-5 pr1ocss .:no{ JI 'sft.lel3
Eelr-6 € e)FH ,JepuTeuer eql g:o aSe.raae ?u1.0ou tralT-5 € ep€r! no.( aeoddng
?ulaou eq+ lo efu.roaa tulaou € a>{€a of 8T ssar€ IsJTJ .rno.delFtr o1 .don eug
'q9noue asolc sI ecuapuodseJroo
.gger€ ragq,oun e)I€r 'los JI 'puocisa.l.roc sa3aJal8 au1aou on1
TTlrrn llo og pu€t 'pue.r1
j1
eq1"gtl ees ..rapultuer .rnoA g;o >{ool no.C se 1T go ata.raao 8u1lou eura8 eqt e)pl
'sT lsrt& 'JoJ.re ?u" T€TJX f,q. peecord 18nq nol
en^rl eql ol sa eeer€ B e)Fs lsnu no.6
.pueJl eql elnlTtsuooor ol etsraaa 3u1aou.trotr o1 f,1ddz lsna no{ uollcarroo eql aEfu
-Jatap ol noTIoJ o? saTnr ou nort sar? uac I luoJeJJTP €q IITII a^Jnc 4.reas 8Y
,ealnc eql AoIeq eII IITA eSeraas 8u1aou et{1 erou aql aarnc aql eA€cuoo aroul 9r[&
.pueJl eql ,.roleq BSTT lT eJou eq1 efuraae ?u1aou eq1 ra8uoT eqg, 'pJBAurroPeaacuoo
BT pueJl eql usrtA pueJl aq1 7r a11 sae€.rars 8u1aou l€ql Joqu)sar IITA rrol
aF,rs-ryFTIdfr E & EFfiGEF (€)
. sonTca .rno.6 g:3o pBeU '?urlqeoJl pueJl rnoA u1 ,toJp JO
(c) 'senToa .r,nof, .puarl .rno.C}r€JC 'rePuraueJ aqt Jo |r€qa eqt of ealng
;:g:o Ir€eU
qoqarfr € tTJ JO (q) .puorl rno.f, uodn lceJJe aI+1TI f.raa lnq a^?tt If Trr ! auopua.r
sro.rt sleuTuT1g-eiasir€I TITn efrraae 9u1aou y 'e9elaas tutaou e .ltq qloous (€)
..6seg 'puarl .rno.Cea€eT ol prrB BrropurBr.rnotrJo plr 1a? o1 8T Aou uelqo.rd Jnol
'BI 'tqT
(.lOU sT 1I eJagrqseonBlsur esoql rapTsuoc uec eA re1tr1) 1I
-repTsEoc er€ aA es€c x.I3srt€uT aql uT 'qgql et[nss€ 8n lar lueqou st(l rod 'pJ8tnAop
elscuoc f,1q1ooue eq IITr,l e&rnc rnof go eJnl"rlJls uT8tr eql Eecu€l8uT lsou uf .
('ee1c.6c
TT? Jo T€aotrer ar{t rous sl€p eql Jo sgnTaa aql €louaP ol Pesn 8T rlJsPulEta". trIat
'e8oT uT 8T JepuTBa
eql uossot sTrp uI) .eT€os cTlau{lTrr} uo 1T loTd luaaa qcTqA ur
-eJ Jnort eeagm'e1ece oTtBJ Eo JapuTsua.reql Jo senTsa,eql loTd tITs Jo 18JT,t
rop-aTE'ffiii
Eq'TEtTffi'f W (z)
'srroTl€ulurelep e1a{c BnoeuoJre f,us
f,q pacnBorlur s?csJT?Ja (p) pua salc,tc pa.reaocsTPtm(c) 'suopttt.t (q) Pqorl (8) 8T
.raqlo eql relJr euo uaql roJ soTras rnoA lsnfipo (c) pu€ 'uaql ozTTsePT
lJeT BT lq4
(q) ,reql puTJ (e) notr .se1c.dc aql oaoual ol ,{oq PIol oq 01 psau loII oP nol
re.'fcx$qT Ea 0f (r)
'scTlsTralfirqc slT
ilsrtt ee eldurs B€ sI lI
o1 gutprocca pueJl pe1tzlT€eDl rnof, lcaford no4 'd11eu1g 1q) 'pueJl pozTTsepl rno.d
'puerl eqX ozTpepl noA r.repulauer
Jo cTlsTrela€rtrlo eql euTtnralep notr uaqe (6)
aql qorJ 'ueq[ (Z) .ea1c.f,oeql e^ouar noI lsrTfi (T) :puerl er{| euTulrelap ortr
'etrI+
Jo poTred s raao .(11erpt.r3 (eseeac
-€p Jo) es€ercuT 01 se.rn81giJo saTros € go dcuapual er{l ET ?TilJT' rr.rornlnotr sy
GlXgU,I,Dffif0Ed (trIV [ltlllE$ilIiq 0[ ,,tOH
IIu f,os$tI
1 e8eg
IIlc( uosssrr
 lessou TJ,l.\
Pa€e 2

Iles unifor:nly .005 belov your first aovlng avora€e you could cme YerJr cLose to.
yorrr trend by gAqlpe .OO5 to each value of yorr flrst nwlng avera€e. lho sane
prlnclple uorld a_ply wen in those lnstances vhere the intervel between your nwing
averages vas varlable. You nake each term of your flrst €uogs of tbe trend as nnrch
abova your flrst Dovrng ayerage as the correEponcling tern of yorr gecoud novlng
average ls belor the correspondlng ter:a of your firat noving avera€e.

Of course thie rnetbod vll} coet you values at each end of the serles. These
u111 bave to be ertrapolatetl ( erteniletl) graPhlcally.

(t) $goothtns Dg e Froch Cu::ve

Anotber nay of itteallzlng the renalnder ig to lay a Freuch Crr:r'veon tbe cbart
of the renalncler, eud.e tt arorurd.untll it flta, drav ln yorr trend, and read the
valuee fron the chart.

A French Curve 1s I cut'y6d. ruler usod by draftsnen. It ta [sually transpareDt.

11nodlficatlon of this nethocl ls to lay a flslble rnter edgeuayg on the re-

naln6er, bend it gntil it flte , drau the trencl, read of the vsluee.
f

(c ) Snoothi.gJr Lreehsnd

stlll another ragr to ldeallze your trend ls to draw lt in freeband- 3e careful'

to draw a gnooth 1lne nhich cbanges d.lrectlon smootbly and consistently.

-Ganeral
lronr above treadl
In all lngtanceg be sure tbat the varlatione of the raalnder
egnl to tbe varlations of the renalntler Delon the trentl'
are approrinately
prlnclpl'
Ia Daklng tbo8e atrt en0tnatl oDs 1t 16 s@etlDe3 t lse to oaki ure of the froak
of ltoited ilate, alrcaily ;,tpfi;; lD osrlle! lealoag' Ibat ls ' occaslonal
ligtrg ad toug sSoda tL ""ii-eo* to glzeo before beln6 arcragcil or uaeil to A€ter-
rlne va,rlatlos fron trootl.

U@ Ee IIg! l! !!qL g 0urto Sooothlv goacg'a lbtll'ed'

ecele or h
Occastolally you vlll ftnil a trmrl rhich' uhen ttlott 'it oD rstlo
Io€r, ls not BDoothly dovnnaril. Reference r" to 9J9!.9g for- Dcceober
"ra"
oi roqu€3t vtthout chTe e" s tutrtplcDont- to eacb.pcr'o!
1955 shich t,lll be asnt"o*.r"
taktng the coulre vho U" oii'J"i"qt rGcol?eil it nsnDer of tbr loulitatlott.
"" "
For era4rle ,-

Grovth uay be kllted, as yith horse ilrann vstllcles'

Growtb nay be cut backl 88 vith cotton productloD'

Groryth nay bave reached. tts uPPer aatrrnptote' a8

seernsto be tnre of lunber Pro-
(fUe asyuptote ig tbe t'lnit toward vhlch a curvs al4troaches.)
d,uctloD.
as ulth lead productl'on. PetroreuD Pro-
Growth nay have erPeriesrced a rebirth,
of Gernarry'
ductlon. coffel productloa, the populstlon
 -:1p +8JTJ er{l uI .ecr&)reJJTp IsJTJ tpoous .(11cegred s no.d aanS ol BTBsrcitp (tnoua
ea?r[ .61y.rau1pro lorr TTTn no.( son€ceq .dtf.rafr€errT etros eq T{Tr.r eroltl asrnoc JCI
0T0' 0Io' - acuoJeJJlc 187
900' 600'
L65,T 6sTT og5'T OLg'l 095'T e?ueqg
600' 800' 0r0' 0r0' oouereJJTc18t
159'l 985'r ogt'T oLt'T 095'T PserIl
EJai[ Erei[ aJaE EJei[ Erei[
ct5 qlt PrC luz 137
:!T4 rtoo. lq pEerl JItoI Jo arel qlrnoJ eql esTBr PTnorrnotr uc^Tt aldirste eql uI
.loq 6.op 1T l€ql 08 ?uarl eql Jo .elrl?a eql etqgqo lan[ notr punolE d8nf tgop 1T
'ol. gOO' '600' 'gO0' 'OIO' 'OIO' :e1<Imre rod 'prsroitt aluf loE plnoq.
JI
tI .cle tOO. ,r,oo. .tOO. rggo' '9Og' t2nn''lAO' 'BOO' '&O' '600' lIO' 'OI0'
:e lds€re rog '.CtlsF€er. pu€ .CTqlo@s EenTEr efir€r{c Plnoqa eo@raJJTP +erIJ eq ,.
.tglueorcaI
trTlou EelT-1 eql glnduoo €oI rr1 lor 8I ?uerl rno.f, II ('e cu€reJJTP lsr1J
bql ToITBo sI eoEart tJtp tuT^o[ rs.ll-I eq&) 'pueJl Jnotr J:o stol or{1 Jo ecuereJJl!
. 3u1rou u.lT-I etll e |IrdEoc 01 iT altrlcunf .F{1 li op ol tuTtll 183IJ squ
Ito-'r€rTF€r q 36 E5Tffii',df'fq5 EIf 6ET![f511fiW (6)
f,te18.t€dc a
'uos'el
palceforal eq ttec qce peltrtdar eJB srolc€J uoIl€I$T pEr qtrp€ oql JI
sTIIl ol lueuelddnr t u1 ucap 3T.f,tA eIO 'EFII oP o1 trtn trro1ae;aTlBs trIerllse ou
BI es{|[ 'uoTlETJttT rog pelenfp oq ?Tnoqs 8.l8IToP troseflnc uI terr€IJ q$rcJo
'puerl
cql uT ,Dqr XITnEllEoosTp oql lql 'uretlcd qloous olsT Pmrl eql eo8qJ ol 4r0
"
lou pTnoqo nol Blap eql sI trlleuetoEoq Jo :lo€I ol enP.r€F€o T tI qllro'E .raqfl
,cF , e96l '€06T 'etgl lnoq€ Sulleera elolc J3e.d-05 3
qlTe prlerl lersl IIT€crlGrd I rT atTpunqalFts 9T o^!q eA l€qA t€ttl lozII?eJ I lsrtl
-prBAuo 5f6I Eott ?.r3|rtreoD
'tl6T o7 t66I ltlnETlrro.s lD-l3ealer ol uatoq qre tlsd eql
IrlrEr lou srBAtI 't€61 ol tO6I pJBAuAop/tldrstl. : tO6I ol t68I uoJJ srvrnqlluooETP
:t6gl of 'tg[ ?,reatrrop Xldrtqs s€A turplTtrqdTq. Jo Puerl er{l lq'noql ecuo I a lal@to
JoI 'elc4c tqol € /tlTser .T JlTnsTluocaTp 3 e.t ol Eogee laIA lraT TnJonBoJre^ eq
reaeAoE '3T III€n18 lt pezllle?! cq lsn4 $Drl elll geoEslauT qons ITE EI
'.uTI lr{tTerls e aq Aaa 'q lor0
('rrA JofB[ lru eql relis Illun lou
'uo TleTpndt r ei€q TIIA sA ro
lnq . qoTlsTprdsr Jo llTlTq€qord eq1 r.ro.at; e.er€ l
e8u€qc TITA pqeJl cql .CtTsnl@rg '.fIelTnTJe?uT onuTluoc louu8a ecualsEnorTo r qms)
'iueuureaog Isrepod eq1 Jo 1q3P eql rllTrr 8l 'pre'dn a^Bouoc eq ..teut{l'loJg
'uoTl€IJul 01 etrp pelrolsTp ueeq
ejaq lto sr€Ilop trl seTos 'retreu € ol enp ?elqnoP et€q trIueppns trau seltc e1<Iue
-D Jo,tr '?lsp 4tl Jio tr1leue,ouoq Jo Ic?I Jo aBr$toeqr€To?eJJI eq Ia8 q U|orO
6 atea
T:'.T uosseT
 lesson.t-:rI
Page 4

anpl a €iven you have ttlo .0l0rs ono .009, tvo .O08la, .O(}/rs, .OO6ta, ona .005 6tc.
fLi6 ca$ot be helpeil. ualess you uge four or flve place logp,

|ro se6 lf your lrt illffer€ncer are snooth you csn coEln:t. thc c*onil rllfferelcc
(Iet illfferelces of the lat ittfferocee). f,owerer yorr ca! uuralV seo blt il8pectio!
ban rnooth t hey ara,

It | ! a tooil plan to plot tho ht iliff eroccs. If th6y 3o np artl ilovn ia uarcg
you lay glt a hint of a prervlourly ulAetectcal ctcla. Such a cycle ca! bo lrolated
asil r.loyeat o! lnoothed out ty a iliffereat (or.dilttlolal) oovlag avsraSe.

Ibe flrst rliffsroces of yor! trena DuEt bo alooth' but alo uot €pt tb. ia€a
thst lb€y lu8t plot ar I stralght llnc. For oranple thcy olght nrn .O5O' .050,
.041' .033, .026, .o29, .015, ln vhich caso tbo an iu'ff cr aocs uoulal be Plotteil ae
e o tlaljht ltae. (Tha accoail iuffsroce! eonlat be .010, .009, .008, .00?, .006,
.005, €tc.) Nowsvor tb€ zril illffer enceg iloar t neeil to be a.tralgbt llae oltbor.

Ihe thlng ls, you !u3t figure out btr thc tronal bas teea bebavlag. lou ur't
tst a treDal that varlea accorilttB to toD€ rcgular !gr. Iths! you hB"e ilole thlr
you can proJect it accoriliDg to tho saae 1a$.

Orce you lsvo founit tbe lav yorr caD ilwrss a Dath.oatical fonnrla to sxltrols
it, if your ulnil :tng to tbat sort of tbiDg. Eut a forual lath@atlcal elltresaloD
la !.ot n€cartaw.

Coversely tt tay hspp.n tbat ons of tha uoll lrnoun latb€latlcal curvcs-a
strai€bt thre, e pa.rabota or a loglstlc-fltteit to tho rcDalDil€r (efter thE cyclos
are reoryeit) o! t; tb. lo96 of tbe rereinder, n111 ileecrlDe tbe bobavlor of tbs r+
ualniter (or ltg logs). Ii so, nell anil gooit. f,ou.tYoar€t€ober tbat ao latt 8r ho,
iuathsdatlcali yoor ctrr" lt is lerely a .(!9!g,!E!.!.pg. anil cs.€ottally no -bctter-
alal c crtaltrly no Dore olJectlva-than the-bouily netbih I havo suggelt€il earlicr.
Ioq rho it not be c;!',l,ctely un*rore of th€so nathcoetic cu. o!' boweverr I
your
a,! ther eforo going to aslc iou to read ar ltart of thir lcslon. Pa€€s 3rL-351 of
t er,t book, spurr r liallo€8 and SDlth.

h rea,illlg the.e pa€s8 you vlll note tbgt tbc uethoil el6gesteil for flttilg a
6trsighi llne lrenat tiucanr- of leart .qoatG! ls sllEbtly $ffrlen! frou.tbo ole
t eEvi you la L,eesonXVIII. I llke ry rethoil bettcf. I tbtlt< lt 13 €aller to st-
ptaln, io unilerrtand, -d to *". gi"-er both lethotls coos oBt to tb3 88o placc
ls tbe enil. Ugc eltbor ole you like.
h-
Altborgh lt lg ileslratlo to fit a tr?lal to gs of the reoai!al6.. the really
portant tbing. fron ttre sianapofnt of proJcctloa]13 to seo, a! bost tou ca!' ldt
ilcrserlag
the trenil bas b6en terra"rnJ ii the i66-€d$€ past. If thc trenil bas bcelt it
;;-.60f; Gt;;d i;ab; a"y. v""r, or vbatcer) ror ths easg to-1{elvalr
llko-
ir reasonable to asau!6 that th€ treoil for the aeri ten lnte"'ala Yi1l bshato
ti"". lbat te. if tUe fasi ten of tt@d have been 2'L9t ' 2'L92.. 7'IcR '
z . | 9 4 , e t c . u p t o 2 . 2 q ) i t l ! r € a s o l r""to."
blotoasgulethatth.rgrtfcvvaluegllllbg
to
2.251-, 2.202,- 2.8) elc. lf thr last feu values al€ +gbJ lt ilocs lot Ertter
auch aDout the others. (frod the stanatpolnt of ProJectioD,'

(4) Pro-iectine tbe !33g!

TheiliscussionofProJectlngthetrettdhaabccnlargelyantlcipateilbytbe
1e3t pera€raph: rou ,"ieri find out hov the tfod bar Deea lebavlng aDil proJect
 (itifi prr 'F 'F'3f) 'Puerl
pu" saTctrc 3:o rleeqluio eq1 uorJ BarntTJ Tsnl8 Jo e cqa5Jellp eql lq u^roqs ET
rt8ql Jorra oJoa ou r{fTA eralnJ ar{l lseceroJ Plnoqs puerl pue ea1of,c-Jo uollcefoa<I
'enurluoc rtoql
6qi'
--if ..c11cccoc Tel. forit nu:g peuTurolep ueeq 6cq puerl .rno.t F pu€
;i,ii,"irlei"'iti, 1a)oq
rori 5y ..ciro"i"io peurg.1erip e^Eqsalodc.nrotrii
' .nolloefoJil rnotr r1 s1q; .eelclc eql Jo qc€o Jo enl€^ a l€Trdordda
eql f,q i|rerl sq+ Jo etttE^ qcue .f,1d111nunol Pqerl rrrotr ?alc€fo:tl 'u1acg
E-iTc?fiFGi.TEsqf ffi!ffoqi
'Puerl Jo oSoI
fill !u3 iol.fo eql ITB Jo l€^ouer ra lJ3 rePuIsurtr eq1 3o €o1 uaarleq secuarsJJTp 'era
'sTrtl ,rorD(01 lL€lrodtlT 81 lJ
rtt fit e(tBs eql 6q plnoqs s.oueJeJJI! essq ,
tul !6q' noq notr ,{oq8 ITla BFt& 'a1ap T€uprro eql Jo 85oI ottl Pw e1ctro pra Du'rl
Jo tTsqlu.ct eq1 ;o o?ot ueeAl€q seouereJJTp eql uBltc pu€ e lndaoa pTnoqr lrol
'FfiCiStaEF to qof Poot I euop e^al trIerer {la rtol '?ug1true eaeq
f-tTrossepeu no^ lGn TIer Jlleril puods.rroc fotl lql lcal eql uorJ rylql llaoc
'ers noJ !66!f noq notr noqo 111n
iTqI, 'p[od8eJ{oc jeql 11en Aq,[ ea3 ol BerntlJ I?uTtTro eql qlfr srtoqluj. eq1 ered
-{oc ueql u€o nol 'rFIl op ol Aoq Aor{ trferT€ nol '(€oI uT ars traql Jt r.qlet
-ol steql ppe ro) reqlstol salo^c PUB?uerl d{l l1il113tr ol u€Iat poo8 3 8r1I
Ee-rTr5F !i@E- @iE6ii-f4
' eT€lrelrtl luenber; 'ol oA€tt tlotr usql raqupJ Aro ?ueJl
1r uoTlcoford rnotr ealasg
er{l +.eForal lruoc :or€ reqlrnt pTaE eq ol Peea l?ql €uFtt 41uo eq1 rd€qrod
'8TsAq eIIBs €r{1 tlo
1T
5 efra
llg uosEerl
 hrton IfI II
PaGc I

I.TSSONTKIII

ligl's toR TE: slcrlPIC.'U'C:i OF CYCLIS

If you hEve a series of nrunbe-'eln rrhrch eacb nunber ls totally rurrelated to

tbc nunber befors and the ntunber follorrrng, lt ls reletively easy to eraluate the
rlGnlfteaDce of any cyelee you find.-

Stjslflrs,Fnee neans FeFniJrsfqlnegr. Irr other vords, eig-niflcanee ie the extent

to vtrlch th6 behavlor ie the r;tulb;f e h a l c e ( r a r r i l o r nf o r c e a ) , o r l s n t t '

l{ore o:actly, the slgniflcanee of the bchsvror referr to the mrnber of tineg
out of a tnrndred or a thousand or rone other nurnber that the behavlor could have eolra
about pr.rrely ae a rcault of ehanee. If the behavlor could not have coDe ebotrt by
naltnificantn (neaning-
eharrco nore than onee ln 20 tiureg tt ls ord,lnarrly conelderecl
ful). In other vorde, rPrlck uD your ears.r If the behavior could not have coEe
about ar a result of ebanee more tban once ln 1OOtlurcg lt ls ortlinarlly considered'
.htgbly signlfteant.'? In other rrords, I'ItB a good.beb.n If lt coultl not have colre
about as a result of ctasee Eor6 tban onee ln i,ooo ttneg it ie ordinarlly conslasred
rcrtronely slgntficant,rr In other vords, nTou can alnost banlc on lt.rl

!{oy, as I gaid above, for nunbere successively g4rel.ated to each other-llke

tha orurberg ln a telephrrne book for instanee-lt le qttfte easy to dctetsllo the elg-
nlfleanee of cyclee. But--and herers the rub--tbe nr:nbers lre are interesed' in gL9
related to each other'

Consldor p16 iron pricea for exanple. Drrlng the past I80 yeara the avers€e
aot
anraual prlce ol'pfg lron (ndJusted) has varled. fron:f1z a ton to $5L a ton. hlt
e1l at once. prieeg luve uorked thenselves up, then vorked tbenselves d'otrnagain.
Prleee go up or dovu lfg.tr tllrer.e thgv are. If they are l! tblt year they carrrt
poeelbly go up to le nerb yoar, tl*"E* to 15 the next. ttris tnterrelattonsblp
fron ter6 to tern ls called a.Lrlal. correlation. 1o ellnlnate sertal correlatlon--
that le to get pi6 iron prfces in ranaon order-you vould hsve to urito the trrlce
for each ys.lr o card, Irut the card.s ln a trrnt, ehake the hat, dtC crra''rthe cartlr
"n prieeg but tt
out ons'Utr o1o. The gerlee;rou vouldl gbt tbls val'r'rculd have the seno
voultl not look llke any oconorrle tlne sertea you ever s8tr. It trould Junp armud
orcry vbich uay ln purc randon ordler.

f,II cconomle tlne series I can think of havc gerlal correlatlon. So do

'aarles. eerles, 8t1dnany others' 'f,nd tha
eliaatologlcal blolo;tcal serles, nedleal
gcrial corrslatlon invalldates aloost all of the testg of etgnlflcaDce
Irrcaenee of us to go lnto
tbat have ao far been vorl:ed out! This fnct nakes it unn€ce88ary for
do you
dctatl tn regard to these terts, or for you to learn then. Tbey vonldnrt
any gooal lf you dltt learn then.
profcssor Eotellln6-one of our 1eaitng nathencticcl statrstlclans--toltl ne
(irtlcu he hadnrt)r he couid nodify sone of
hc though (rlc!) ttat, if he had the tine
probably (sic! ) lake no itifference'
tbcer testa !o thst scrlal corrclatlon vouJd,
it"-i""iri"g-lg test to a serles r uaated hio to teet would cost
of tbe srod.J.fted.
atout TZo.q)O, bo cald. llot nueh help there!
r : .ri l.1t i ^I'il F,.i)']t:'i tO be On
'llhcre lr one test hotrever, rrhi''h ,
:rn Ot
tbo rtCht track. The test ttas "r
 . .nollo; qcFln suoTt€lnalsoa neJ eql ?u€ 'III el(1e,tr.I1 elq€i1 uT lno ?s#oA trT1n, cI
oTleqllTJs 4tI| .reETl OT lnoq€ uI aouo aT '8Ieu3E ol tullrooc8 'reAsE€ €q[
,-
. ,,sTlIl 8a tuoT s8 earr€1; Jo saTres € uI
i sB Doot sB .IcJo e €uol? ecraqc .fq let no/t plnoc BauTl XuEu AoIJ .elcJr J"eJ
nr Peloedsns eA 18r{+ prt€ loT^€qoq T€er euro6sluesa;dar E e.0rnc pua+eI(I sleT
1,..3 "Tql
0Z Ott 17 z€ 5r- tt? +f 9I 6r- I
'i6 ItZ-
II- 6E zL- ez t€- 5t ff L
9 s c ZZ' o€ 9- zz Z- tI z- 9
OT LC 9z 6z 5- TZ 99 €t oz- s
1Z g€, ze- gz 5 oz 5e ZT 8- fl
T- 5€. ZT Lz 5r 5r g6- TI 9€, e
z q e zz 9Z 6- 8T z OT .,,6I z
-T- ee st- 5z Lr ,1r z 6 I I
anT8.f, JBU; E61?i JBe.f, aFT€A. rga.[. ffiffi- .ItlaI
"(Frqo ro3: 12 eted 's6rr|'TJ roJ gI a?8d) I uosBeT Jo Z elqe,[ Jo g 'IoC :eornog
'*€q oacl EJ.qurou
EopasagcTqae+ OZ .?nlTTdE?qlTn 9ez9Tz.r'E€ar ,aa*rl3ET
iJo
BlaC er{&l
T aTqr,l
,?T ees trIe.r€q u€c notr l€rll or elala eql aJn3seo s[opniJ
eqi[ 'sso?uBr ptll 'OZ I epn111iIgeqlTr{ olctrc r3e.:-g .r€$t3er tr11ca3;.rei[o sluererder 6
olJnC .Il€cer 11p no.f 6y .I elqs[ uT qllr€ror{ nol ro} pa leeiler er€ Eanl€l eseq[ 'A
uoere'I to E eamc Jo santB.r 0t I8JTJ eql ean 8n loT 'Bl?p pollolluoc osrr Brt latl
.no,l JoJ etdn rio reqlous:[roa TfrI gprs aJrr aql so 9q
ol 'rerarmE '!oJ roJ e1<tren uB lno slroA eq s€ .itlT€tcod6e 'f,lTnoTJJTp tnoqlTA ltel
BrI€1r3{I dld(b ol oI(F e{t TITA rrol radad s jSuorlsurry tulp€or Ic leql r[qTql I
r'slTneeJ olq"uos8ar q,so6aql sdsqred eAIt ol suget onDlrllool
s I Tet.ItrE .scrFcTJT€Tr roJ 3ur1sa1 ul pesn seal^op snolfitr oql tuonBn 'ttlIAOJeq nOf,
'tuoJlturv 'S 'C 'uo1'u1qelq
luet tqeq lr Jo ltmo.a" aql alo.rr oq^ Jo sproA etll uI
Z eA€8
IUI noss€t
 Legsoa nII I
PaCe 3

lla}le II

Slne-coslne eutYes flttad to

thc flrst flve 8-lten cyclea of Gune E

( (a) (t) (c) (a) Ist CvcLe - , Znd CYcLe,- - -

ffilB o Ycos I ffie rcoe o
e Sln e Coe e '
(a g 8) A - D -,8-
Iear
r
2
]-z,5
25.
m
/t .ooo
ffi o00 =TT
19 ltg.
TT.o 2
2 12:
f 1.lll / l.lll
0r
-2t+'.?5 48 -26.87 ]26.a7
3 37.5 I .?a? --1.000
,?o7 35
-g
lzi.Z5
o. I 8;' 35 o. 45.
l+ 50 .000 66 46.66 46:66
62.5 - .?O7 r' '?O? . -ze /t4.tb lro,rt+
5 -z o. -2 12. 0
6 7 5 -1.000 oo0 12.
44 /3r. rr -31.11 4? jz6.t6 -26.L6
? 87,5 - .?Vl I .?v? 4 --0 .
I loo.o .000 /t .o9o 851 4r.96 -80.rh
lotal w -1r.50 -r0.49. -2O.89
+ 812 lzz.93

<rb qJclq =
(a) - ?r$ cvcls -,- 9-bb Cvcle -
lcos o
Y Iein 0 I cot 0 FT-srn 0 rcog 0 mslno
3 B._
Jsaq , a 8 - A J+l. 01 -1 ,?L _ .?L
I r? ,ttz.oz Itz,oz -5S * 1 . 0 1 -
2 -9 -9, 0. 2? l.zz.oo - 0. 2 I 2,oo 0.
-t.3,ll3 L2 / 8 . 1 1 8 . - 8.lt8 -1 _ .?L I .?I
3 19 lt31+3 2L 0. -21.00
t+ 5 O . -5 42 0 . l3z'6 - 7.47
26 -18,38 - -18.38 10 _ ? . t 7
5 4 1636 I 6J6 -
-2? |zz,oo 5 -5. o,
6 -5-l 5. 0. O.
- ?.78
? -Ztr lt6.g? -t6-97 -72 #50.90' -50.90 -11 I ?.?8
I -rg o, -lQ. . ,
l+ o I '+' 20 o.
- 3.?L
{zu
-15,85
!Iotal /'tl+.?8 -)6.o2 42.n
- 3.96
o slz ' l:-!.zo _ 9.01 u.99 -20.@ .93

I
Tabulat A antl B values
eumof thelr squarss

' L2,,, -t? 2 ,lB2

L'658.0j
oxgrg . 4.-. 3
I {22.93 . .-11.50 525.78 t32.25
t$6.39 '*5.t+3
2 -r0.49 -20.99 110,ol+
y'tt.zo - 9.01 125.t* 81.18 206.62
3 428.08 549.08
4 @ -11. OO- -20.69 12r.00
5 . .'Q?
.86 15.68 , 16.41
; Lg?6.70
Sun frr,7r\ -L3.2L 395.*
Average I 2.j4,/
33;l(
t-L.lt
 'luBcTJI€Ts.frea '(69'6) sesTl 91 trreae ocqo lnoqp acurqc fq putoJ eq
lou srll
BFll gle guol sa selra8 e uI sFIl su regr?e.r se elc.,tc uolTt lt3 'eouag
(surei-Otl)
. gL'6 (aryztfrT.tETs)
T -
strz(ry = (tu11n1Tlsqng)
glz'ze -"'-891CfC
---r-- :
Jo reqntu sttl Jo ?oor e.rflrbr ql fQ
popT^Ip utes cyla.rpnb eql 4q P.pTATP
epn111dne ega.rear aq1 3io e.cnba eql ol
lenDa rsr€d B ol pesTor e Jo lecordlceg
}LZ.Z= ,@g.l (Ssf4f fIdtrTS)
.
/16g'e\ (eaoqe EorJ tu11n11loqug)
zttfinl
/ .$l \ -olQ1cf,c 'OU aql
= aO JO lOoJ a.rsnba
4@ ot{l Iq TopTAIp uaou clqerpcnb oql dq
pepTAtp epn111due a?sleat agl Jo e.rrrtbg
169'g =
(euilrrr&rs)
trorJ tu11n111squs)
le^ory
-ta1cf,o gro leqqnu eIIl Jo looJ
e.rgobs eql trq PoPI^TP llsau c11e4rnS
88'5r (tur.(rrrdnrS)
ie'96e'" (rrr oIqB& uorJ 3u11n1118qns)
se1of,c ;o - t r - i= -8apn111dra fBcPTATpUT
raqunu eql rpnDe 11eJeqA l;gT-7|ft," e^TJ st{l Jo (sertnbs eql Io troes
eql Jo loor erenbs ) neeu c11e-rptttS
z\'€I. = g6'6Lt (?uillrrdrrs)
g9'i|t (tuilrrTdBTS)
fs:*
ff'trw'%: (rrr":il:::::,
=
--i,s f dj"
Effi-$1@-d5
t eftd
IIIXX so88eT
 I,eseon F(II I
PaAe 5

fable I: Note tbat the data contala eycl€ q:rd randons only. If trenal bad been
prasent you vouldl have had to renovo lt.

Iable I-I.: (Revlen Lesson X(V, Slne and. Coelne Gurveg and. bow to flt then.)

lr tbs cycle la 8 ltene }ong tbere are 8 polnte to flt.

If tha eycle had. been of a fractlonal lantth, grrcb es 8.2 lteos long there
vould. stlU have been only 8 points to flt. Eotrerer five cyclee of an 8.Z-ltem cycle
vould. bave requlred 41 terns. Isur I Colrrms ttotrld. tbea bave correaltonded to the
flret I colums.of an 8.2-!tea perlodlc tablE. In euch a table the 3rcl line vorld'
have been 9.lteis long (-58 befne h tbe 9tb colunn), 8lrd yout t+th ltnc rrorlcl bavi
rtartedl'rrttl 22, Conieguently ydrr f values for tbe 4tb cycle vorld, bave been 22t
12, -32, 26, -22, -?2| 4, and -1; yout T valueE for the 5th cycle vorld bave started
vftU /2 ln posltlon I, etc.
\
If the cycle bad, been orer 8 tlZ ltems long (r"y 8.8 ltens) you torild, bave hed.
to eaII 1t 9ltens long. Juet as tn the 9th colurm of an 8.8-1ten lable yor uould
have lud. to use certaln ltang tvice.

The algle 0 (ttreta) ln an 8-lten eycle ts 36O0 + 8 or t+so. 0r, lf you u9e 1096
to represeort yorr nhole clrcle lt le lOff + I or IZ.J, Ihe aagles la CoI. (t) have
been flgur€d on a percentage baslg. fhey are in each csse L2.5 tlnes the values lu
CoI. (a) .

If you uqe p€reentages ln Col. (u) you have to look your slnes antl coelnee r4l
ln a perc€ntage lable of slneg. Such a table tg sutrplled vith the eupplenent to thlr
legeon. It was also suppllecl vith tesaon XV.
'If
you had used, degrees your Col, (t)ror:fahave read 45or 90o, L)so, 1800, 2250,
??Oo, 3L5o, 35Oo.. Iou uouldl have lookecl elnes ancl cogines up in a degree table. ID
elther event the gine and cosine values entered lato CoI' (c) ana (d) uould bave
been the 6a,De.

I think the reet of the corrjmtatione tn Table II are qulte cl€sr' lf f,oll D88-
tereC Ireseon )S. For each cyclJyou ntrlttply the T velueE by gln I arrd Dy cor e,
total, and dlvtcte by lr (Urr tbe number of torns ln the cycle).

Annstrong left thie Last step otrt (see hls PootnotE 3), but I prafer to lnclude
It, Eorever lt 1g not lrrportalt. fou get the Eano ansvcr eltber uay.

TgbIe,IIL: I canf t ses lnrch of anythlng_ to t+k abstrt bsre. fqrrr Are anil Els eoDe
fron iable rr. Iour eqrr"res coDe t"oq ihe t"ure of Bquares atartlng on page tl8 of
Spurr, Kellogg, and. surith, The table startlng on page 54'8 also glves the squtro
roOt ralues needed. !n the conlmtatlone to follov.

Cg nrtatlolrs z I eamrt _se€ here vhich lsnrt self wlilat, arcgPt B"*It-
tbe las! ffeu"" of 9.?6. "ttyt$og
tha tiUfe of erponerttals ln tbe euppleuent eLte! #'eIB
'48 wotrrd
ii6r,"Zl'3^L g.g?. fhe d.lfference1s g.g?-g.,02or .95. consiguentli#
iL tlleroxluatlri) g.oz I ?4 ot .95 ot 9-oz { -?t+= 9.76.
 tt'5r :
6'9'w6t'z=x
qtrloD ?oo8 sl qoTqr '.ostl 26 8T l en eep IITA 6'9 Jo l@qodrr
s3 Fll ea. eA ..I.I|E tocD Jo el(t9t rno o1 ultNt" IeJeJ ea Itol o(nl uT I eql lee!
oi ltf.lrr1Oer.lraDc qlyn ensTlnoc ol .litl PTTtoAelofo sgll r.8T1 oql $t oS
'l3el t rI.lrrlE
ol tsllJoof 'rer11 961 EI eouo utql elor e tqt Jq leddst{ lou plnoc rolriileq
eql 'rcltfo OI roJ f,lT$fnter eEr. eql q4IA senuTltroc alcja tFtl JT rcroJoreq&
60'0r =
9't-9ffi6r'z3a
roJ a^Ior ecucg
'sesoilnal rlo rot OOt
ot qtnoE ..oT. .1 qoFlf, '5'66 = '*a e3. nor slueuo&(eIo elqst rnor aol{
r.n"
eql ro enr'^r-
pulr or e Jo trFuodn'
"r.,rrr"qllt$"":::::t,*3nfrt*::::'"*t
e 3o lmuodn s gri6l.'Z . [ (t"FIId!rS)
e 3:o lueooitre .e(e6Tgt'I) - f, (1e? en SuTrcriDs)
= f,.L (tqltlTdErs)
.e lo ruoqoEL . e6rgt'I
'##
:-gg-l-ogc'"1 E (tureodswr&)
(?uTIJIr&rys)
queuodre ..,qi.- _let ee Bepf r
89'6r
Tn.E rtloq, Jo looJ e.renbr 9qrFO
'. Jo lueuodn .i5*51)"o-,
z\fr.aT1
f"+-\re? ol -Btffitrl- tlnlllsqns rna cr 69'9 rol?uTsouep oql rod
z\,fr'fr; t -
[5s LA'z = e Jo lqeuodr
-,ztttl=
4 . - ' - - t
,trrll oel eA eaoqt euollclnduoo Jrto Eord
IOOT uT I of urpp ocusqo Jo Jlll1q1eood, e{l eonper ol peau eA PTnoA
fEj-FFdE 'leal orlegsg eql o1 ?ulprocay
56'fST ffiT Jd' eelcfc .frreu rtoq
. eouacTJ
IrE Tr 5d 6aE'5-' F- ffi ET Eil[bTo F E@-g E,l TdTi E'E
9 a&d
IIIg uo88eT
 Lesson )0(II I
Page 7

fhprefora thls cycle could not contkrue t lt,h this 6a[s re€ulaaity fot 15 rePe-
tltlo[s plrely es a result of c]rance. uore tba olce 1n a thouaaad thao, accoriliag
to tbe Sartelrs t est.

lvalueti on of the lartelrg test.

I t hlnk Arnst rongc colusnt ' €t"e! alove, farlly evaluateg the Sartel I s teat;
rl0 glves perbapa th€ lost reasonable resuftstr of any of the te8t8. lhls i8 not
lnoi€b. lre y13h to @, the prolabllrty of chance. Bartelre tost Etg tell us tlria r
but, as far as I arr concerneil, thlg ls not certain.

lhe Bart€I I B t est bas et least tbee Oa,ns:

(a) ltre Sartelrs test Dreruppore6 atne-cosinc saveg vhercas the naves ve ileal
trlth are u€uaUy ztgzg€.

(t) ttre lartelrs test !8keo no ilistlnction b€tveen the significatlc€ of pre.'
itaterrnlnei vaie lengths altl vave lengths iteternlneil fron lttt 3rnel. wlilence. It 1!
sUrely harier, ln a serlee Of raDaorn nunbersr to fintl a cycle of soDe alven leagblr:-
say 4Fit eog-t harr to finil the tegt cyclo tbat is there.
(c) ltre Sertelte test rakes no alistlrFtlo! betueen cyclos rrhlch keq, on conlng
true e.ft cr illsco"ery anil those vhich are foud 1n past eq)sri elco al6o' A cyclo
rhich repeats ten tlnes anil uhich then,3!@ 4l s,ggll, tePeatr ten nore tin€s' 13
obviously nore sl6nlficant tl n one vhlch repeateil trretrty titoss aU in tho !e6t.

f,owerver,in splte of its flavg the Dartelrs test ls the b.st test I knon about.
Iu fact lb 1s the only test I kaoU alout vhlch 1g not ir|vel laat eit by the terlel
corrGlstion prosent in.alf nost all natural tlne ael'les.

Durther CoErent

Doart be arigletl into thinking tbat bocauso e cycle is higlily gi€Dlflcant thero
ls eDy ce:ttai.nty thet it u111 continue. cycles ere fulny thingr. TlI.y coD6.e!.I
eo. ih"y Ihey are not at'ays ilepenilable. There are periods vhen tboy
"".ppt"r.
ilo not operate

the regulsrl ty of the choo-choo of the olil steaD loco[ot1t6 coulil lot con-
celvably cone about by chance, but ubat bappeae to tho sould vhco tho train-goes,
arourod the hlll? or lnto a tulnel? or rhen the eDglD6€! Bhrts off tbe potrer? It I
tbe sa,Deuay vlth cyclss.
 '.tlJerr ?u1ltr
rtef-5 B u&rJ uuollgfldp'erg 'IEDrl cql eloEDJ 1ru no( lrqt Joqceung :flol
lreclrd {col. uosoo Jo ropsl uollrrodroC
rrrrood ? p.r3pu31sEql c1 o1a.fo ,wett$a$ oql Io eousclll€Ir oql rI lrqn 'I
sEIqord
g efta
IIIXr uo8.eT
 OF .AICI,ES T,ess ln Xl'
A i: -iI5 OF SINES A]iD COSITIDS
I,;&RIISSDDAS EIIRCE:TIACISOT ;]RIOOTIS Supplernent ?

(3600= loof )
t.
stn.l .z .ll .6 .8 Cos Sln .0 .2 .I+ .6 .8 Cog
l, (AIr llgures Positlve) f' t, (rrD Flgures llegatlve)
o . o ] ' a . 0 2 5 . 0 3 8 . 0 5 02 5
f'
o I .ol2 .025 .038 .O50 ?5 50
r. .odj .o?S .o8b .tbo .r13 Z6 5r .06).o?5.088.I00.r13Z6
2 , L ? 5 . r 3 8 . 1 5 0 . r 5 3 . L ? 577 5 .L25.138.r50 .L63.L75Z7
1 .18? .200 .?L2 .224 .236 ?8 5) . 18? .2oO .2L? .224 .236 28
4 .artg .26l'' .273" .285 .?9? ?9 54 .?49 .26L .43 ,285 .2n Z9
5 .3Og .],zL .333 J45 .356 80 55 .jo9 .32L .33) .3t+5 356' 30
6 . i 6 E . 3 8 0 . 3 9 1 . 4 o 3 . 4 1 18r1 56 .368.380 .391 .t+O3.1+r4 3r
? .426 .43? .ly'+8' .460 .47L 8? 57 . 4 2 6 . 4 3 ? . 4 4 8 . l + 6 0 . 4 7 L3 ?
8 .1182 .l+93 . 504 . 5rt+ .525 83 58
9 .5J6 .51t6 .557 .56? .5?8 8ll 59 . 5)6 . *6 .55? . 56? .5?8 3Ir
10 . ji88 .598 . 608 .618 .628 85 6o .588 ,598 .608 .618 :628 35
1r .6)? .&? .656 .666 .6?5 86 6r .63l? .B+? .656 .666 .6?5 16
L2 .584 .694 .7O2 .7L2 .?2O 87 6z ,684 .694 .?o? .?Lz .?2o 37
13 .?29 .?3? .?46 .?54 .?62 88 5) .??9 .?3? .?46'?54 .?6? 38
14 .??O .??8 .?86 .?94 . Bo2 89 64 .??o .??8 .?86 .?94 .8oz 39
L 5 . 8 9 9 . 8 1 6 . 8 2 3 . 8 3 1 . 8 3 8 9o 65,809.816 .823.831 .838ltO
1.5 .Elll .851 .857 .861+ .870 9r 66 . E+Il .851 .85? .864 .8?0 br
L ? . 8 ? 6 . 8 8 2 . 8 8 8 . 8 9 1 . 8 9 9 92 6z .8?6 .82 .888 .89,+ .8n t+2
1g .go5 . gI0 .gls .g2o .925 9) 68 .go5 .9rO .915 .9?|O .925 t+3
19 .93O .934 .939 .943 .9tt? g,+ 6g .g)o .93+ ,g3g .9r+3 ,*7 llll
20 .gsl. .955 .958 .962 .965 95 ?o .95r .955 .958 .962 .965 ',+'
2L .968 .n? .nU .n? .980 g6 ?L .g68 .g?? .nt+ .n? .980 l+6
?2 .982 .981r .98? .989 .990 n . ?2 .982 .98t1 .98tf? .989 .990 t+7
23 .gg2 .gg4 .gg5 .9g6 .gn g8 ?3 .gg2 .gg4 .995 .996 .9n l+8
24 ,998 .999 .999 1. ooo l. ooo 99 l4 .gg8 .999 .999 1. OOO I . OoO t+9
25 r. ooo I . ooo 1. ooo ,999 .999., 0 ?5 L.OO0l.ooo l,ooo .999 .999 50
26 .gg8 .gn ' .996 .995 .9W' I z6 ,ng .gg? .996 ,995 ,994 5L
2? .ggz . ggo' .989 .98?' . 98l+', ? ?? ,992 .990 . 989 .98? ' 98ll 5?
28 .982 ,980 .W ,974 .972 ) ?8 .982 .980 ,n? .nt+ .n2 53
,
29 .968 .965 -.962 .958 .955 4 ?g .96 .965 .962 .958 .955 't|i
30 .95L .94? .943 .939 ,93tr 5 80 .glt .9t+? .94) ,939 ,934 55

31 .930 .925 .92O .9L5 .9ro 6 81 .930 .925 .92O .9L5 .9ro 56
.899 ,894 .888 .882 g2 .go5 .899 .89+ .888 ,882 57
32 .gO5 7
n .8?6 .8?0 ,86t1 .85? 685i' (Bon a'q 8 3 . 8 ? 6 . 8 ? 0 . 8 6 1 +.85? ,85r 58
l4 t*81{ls' .838.831 -823 Drg I Btl .B#l .838 .831 .923 .8L6 59
35.809 .8bz .?94 Q86 .??8 10 g5 .8og .802 .?9t+ .?86 ,??8 60
36 .?70 .?62 .?5+ .?45 .?37 11 8 5 . ? ? O . ? 6 2 . 7 5 t .?l+6
+ .?3? 6r
,??o .?L2. .?O? ,694 gl ' ,?29 .72O .?l?- .?o2 ,69r+ 6Z
)? .7?9 L2
38 .69 .6?t .666 .556 .&+7 L3 88 .681+ ,6?5 .666 .656 ,&? 63
39 .63? .638 .618 .608 .598 rll 8 9 . 6 3 ? . 6 2 8 . 6 1 8 .508 .598 6Lr
lr0 ,.588 .5?8 .56? $5? {146 !!.t.
go ,588 ,5?8 ,56? .55? .*6 65

4t .5],6 .525 . 5rll , 5ot+ .,+93 r6 gr .536 .525 .sl.lt+. 50lr .t+9) 66
42 .l+82 .4?L ; ii60 ,Itll8 .437 t7 gz .l+82 .4?t ,lt6o .41t8 .t8? 6z
,+j .lt16 .lll4 .1103 .39L . 380 18 93 .426 .414 .lt03 .3g]- ,380 58
rl+ .36 ,J56 .3+5 ,333 .)2L t9 9t+ 368 .356 .)t+5 .333 .3zL 69
t+5 .3o9 .2n .?85 ,2?3 .?6L 20 95 .309 .2n .285 .273 .261 ?a
It6 .?49 .236 .224 .2rz .2oo 2l 96 .249 ,236 .2?4 .2r2 .200 ?L
t+? . 18? .l? 5 . r53 , r50 .138 2? n .187 . L 7 5 . ] 6 3 . 1 5 0.138 ?2
48 .r25 .113 . roo ,088 .o75 2J g8 .L25 .113 . roo .o88 .o?5 ?3
,+g .063 . o5o .038 .o25 . or2 zlt gg .063 . o5o .038 ,O25 .012 7+
C. 8. Arostrong
 .{rnr pooc
'"4 - I 'gTO/I - rEeTC/tCrO+ ragtl'| eql araq fu1pn1cu1 oEIe aIB aA scualeJar Jod
.tuptpnle ers no,f 'qlSueT eq+ ro soltae .q+ qI euop qe.q
rCp6erTBssq {.roA ituB JT se3 IEB lcaqc ol lqBA ,tg[ noit .ea1-rae ArB uI qltqeT elc.itc
relnclXred B uf ro ,e?cp Jg eg1res rBlncT+real a uT pelEa.relul aoo3rq noit BV
. rgrrgsB eleTalcoc a sTql repTsroc +on op aA ?Brll osfr raqEeaau .*roA
sTq+ JoJ pern FoJJe pu! stl aq+ lnoqB eTllTT s tcaTtar pTrloqe garnaTJ &lap
aen o1 pa1(ha1 ere oqA nol 5o asoq6 .rtpnls 1er1g: eql uI auop &roA aql EaT+ TI
+seeT lE EXuaseraler,tpn?' $rooes aql lsrll pIEs .q usa lT arns Ba|[ q?nor a ey
EBAqcTqAr,{pn1er1q1 tuTrrpn. Jo arppr. eqt sr ,rrruer.;39:rt:"*::"fff$:i:
TEnlcE aJeaboc 01 qJTqA qlTA .uTf els.qlnrtE I +B aalfi r ol Euart aq? pue sersA
XuaraJJTp ua sTe tqTulgor 1ur tuIlBTosT uT euop :1rolt aql s ezlJ@ns sTqil
t*
q1p:req1eio1
usecrr.r
{corsur "-r",(apd ;J::f"ii ;J;i3.:"il:3":":ff
.lunoccB .ql ET p.pnfcul sT :[roA arnEyJ aq1 ITV ..IcIo .reef,-9f.6 .ql a+cto8l
o? esop IroA aql pnEuaX3l rd.l. aql Jo lunocc. paTTBlep. seaTt lpnp sg6,
'9961 'itnt roJ qrJrerau afofC Jo
lgturcf
eql EorJ peluT.rdo.r6T eTqiB r.uoTlBzIlTuTJ.q ,lt uI De.n BenbTuqaeleql Du.
6g6l-I€gt 'eacgr6 {cotg DEoTTTBu u1 elotg re.I-8T.5 eq.r-rgr rpnts FrrJ aqJ,
'e{.treilxe ImloB lssTeE3 arealrocol ueql tullceforit pue tqTslqooc
'ee1cr(o TErla.s tulzTlTuTrag .itpnle qSno.roql arou . aIru o? +rorJ3 ut
Jo lTnser
3q1 'Iruoces W3 .alr.Cr eTfrIc a Jo uoTlBzTlIuIJap puEuoTldtosl .ql uT pcaTorst
eanbluqaal aq1 .1er1g elE;lsnTtl rlclqA EeTpnlstlcrrdar oAl .rB paqoll1'y
[orsnTcfloc
TESTINGCYCLESFOR STATISTICALSIGNIFICANCE
Applying thc Bartels
to ! Tire
by Charles E. Armstrong
In the cycle analysis of tine series,
the question almost invarialrly arises ag
to rhether or not a given period shows
ststistical evidence of reatity. Amongthe
various devices used in testing for signi-
ficance, Rartels' technique seems Lo give
perhaps rhe most reasonable rcsults- This
test of significance, rhen applied to the
cycle enalysis of time series, r€fleets
the degree to which I particular periodic-
ity is consistently present throughout the
series under etudy, as well es the per-
sistence of uhe cycle, i.€., the nunber of
y a v e s c o n t ai n e d i n t h e s e r i e s . I n t l r i s
test the cycle curve for the given period
under test is fittcd to the entire series,
and the amplit,udeof the resulting mees-
ured cycle is conpared sith the emplitude
s a re-
r h i c h m i g h t l , e e x p c t e d t o o c c u r ' la' h
is
sul t of chance f actors a lone. ex-
pected amplitude is determined Ly fitting
the cycle curve for the given period se5la-
r a t e l y ! o s u c c e s s i v e s e S i l e n L so f t h e s e -
ries, eaeh segment being one period in
length. Frorr the n individual amplitudes
so olrtained, 6h estimte of the expected
rverage amplitude is computedin accord-
atrce rith the rule used in determining. the
dispersion of the rrcan, i.e., by dividing
t h e q u a d r a t i c t n e a no f t h e i n d i v i d u a l
amplitudes by \G. By comparing thc meas'
ured overage amplitude as obtained by
ficting the cycle curve to the entire se-
ries rith the expected s?er8ge ahPlitude,
re have a direct mamr, chrough the use of
smndard prolnbility forrnrlae, of arriving
et a msthematical rEasure of the Senuine'
r g t t c t i l A L L v p U t L t 5 H E D A 3 P U e l t C e t r O t 1N O
rxc Founolrrox fot tlr€ Sruov or Cvct t3.
Test of Si g nificanec
S e r i e g Cycle Analysis
ness of the observedcycle. As vil I be
Been, th resulting rrcasure of genuineness
w i l l b e h i g h i n c a s e sr h e r e i n d i v i d u a l c y -
cles exhibit stebility in both arnplitude
and tirning, and lor rhere the opposite
conditions oL.tain. Also, the value of n,
the numberof individual periods corrtained
in the series, has a positive effect on
this fireasure.Of course, f or n-l th€ test
is neaningless.
Since periods other than the particular
one under rnalysis affecr both the meas-
ruredend expccred eyerage amplitudes in
the sarr ray and to bhe srnE degree, th
f i n a l m e a s u r eo f g e n u i n e n e a s i s n o t a f -
fected Ly such disturt.inF elerrcnts. [,ike'
wise, th effecis of any serial correla-
tion present in ttre serieg is nullified by
aDpearing in l,oth sides of the ratio of
reasured to expectcd amplitude. lfence, th
t e s t n r a yr i t h s a f e t y b e a p p l i c d t o s e r i e s
of deviations from noving avcrages or frorn
other trend or gmoothing curve devices,
che use of vhich ney change the armunt of
setial correlation present in the series.
The Bartcls test is not designed prime-
rily rs a nErns of laating the periods of
cycles present in a aerics. Its chief val-
ue lies in its application as a test of
significance after the period bas been
locetcd by sm other mcens. Hcever, in
thc process of locating the cxect period,
it is ofcen poslriblc to set up Che rork
processes and pa;Ers in such a eey !s to
facilitate the application of the Bartels
test after the period has been detcrmined.
The folloling tal,les and chart illustrace
the application of tte test to the results
l2 Or of a harmonic analysis of a typical cco-
nomic series.
87