DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE

Tuesday, April 04, 2023

CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

GLOBAL  March inflation slows more-than-expected

Index Las t C ha nge % c hg  ERAA: revenue in-line, but miss on net profit in FY22
Dow 33,601 327.00 0.98
S&P 500 4,125 15.20 0.37 JCI STATISTIC
Nasdaq 12,189 -32.46 -0.27
Tn
Eido US 23.8 0.22 0.93
8,000 50.0
H.S.I 20,409 9.07 0.04
Nikkei 28,188 146.67 0.52 40.0

STI 3,281 22.18 0.68 6,000

30.0
KLCI 1,433 10.80 0.76
Kospi 2,472 -4.52 -0.18 20.0
4,000
SET Thai 1,600 -8.80 -0.55
10.0

COMMODITIES 2,000 0.0

Jan-19

Jun-19

Oct-22
Feb-21

Dec-21

May-22
Nov-19

Sep-20

Jul-21

Mar-23
Apr-20
Index Las t C ha nge % c hg
B rent Crude Oil ($ /bbl) 84.9 5.04 6.31
Volume JCI Index
WTI Crude Oil ($/bbl) 80.4 4.75 6.28
CP O (M YR/to n) 4,169 111.00 2.74
Gold (US$/tr o unce) 1,985 15.37 0.78 DAILY TECHNICAL VIEW
Nickel (US$ /to n) 23,179 -472.50 -2.00
Tin (US$ /to n) 26,100 175.00 0.68
We expect JCI to trade between 6,786 (support) – 6,868 (resistance) level today
Coal (US$/ton) 200.0 22.75 12.83
BBTN : Buy on weakness at 1,200
Comment : Testing support level
BEI STATISTICS JPFA : Buy on weakness at 1,075
JCI 6,827 Comment : Testing support level
Change (1day) 0.32% PGAS : Buy on weakness at 1,325
Change YTD -0.34% Comment : Testing support level
P /E M arket (X) 13.5 SMGR : Speculative buy at 6,350
Volume (mn shr) 12,866.9 Comment : Chance to rebound
Value (Rp bn) 7,553.0
↑ 243 ↓ 285 ↔ 294 MARKET REVIEW & MARKET OUTLOOK
LQ45 943
% Change (1day) 0.57%
Regional
US equities had mixed closings yesterday with Dow and S&P 500 rising 0.98% and 0.37% to
INTEREST RATE close at 33,601 and 4,125, respectively, while Nasdaq declining 0.27% to 12,189. Dow
C urre nt P rev io us
outperformance was driven by energy stocks that jumping sharply on the back of oil prices
B I 7D Reverse Repo (%) 5.75 5.75 amid OPEC+ production cuts. On the other hand, investors were digesting the slow job
Fed fund rate (%) 5.00 4.75 market data released yesterday. This drove the policy-sensitive two-year UST yields
inflatio n mo m (%) 0.18 0.16 reversed course after earlier climbing as much as 11 basis points. On commodity market,
Inflatio n yoy (%) 4.97 5.47 oil prices rose with Brent crude oil price increasing 6.31% to USD84.9/bbl and WTI crude oil
price increasing 6.28% to USD80.4/bbl. Coal also jumped 12.83% overnight to
EXCHANGE RATE USD200.0/ton. Meanwhile, nickel price fell 2.00% to USD23,179/ton.
Las t C ha nge % c hg
1USD = IDR 14,970 -25.00 -0.17 Domestic
1USD = SGD 1.33 0.00 -0.02 On domestic market, JCI rose 0.32% to close at 6,827 yesterday. Foreign investors were net
1USD = JPY 132.25 -0.21 -0.16 buyers with Rp486 bn net buying amount. JCI rallies were driven by: financials (+0.52%),
1USD = A UD 1.47 0.00 -0.04 infrastructures (+0.46%), and consumer cyclical (+0.29%) with BMRI (+1.94% to
1USD = EUR 0.92 0.00 -0.08
Rp10,525/share), BBRI (+1.48% to Rp4,800/share), and BBCA (+0.57% to Rp8,800/share).
Our technical desk estimates 6,786 (support) - 6,868 (resistance) with the likelihood of JCI
DUAL LISTING to close at higher level.
S t o ck s C lo se C hg. % chg In R p. Vo l. ( A D R )
TLKM 27.5 0.23 0.84 4,117 160,803

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1
 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, April 04, 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

MARCH INFLATION SLOWS MORE-THAN-EXPECTED

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the monthly inflation rate climbed by 0.18% MoM in March,
slightly higher than the February rate of 0.16% MoM. This level was below our estimate and
consensus of 0.31% MoM and 0.26% MoM, respectively. However, the consumer price index (CPI)
inflation rate decelerated from 5.47% YoY in February to the lowest rate in seven months of 4.97%
YoY in March, lower than our estimate of 5.07% YoY and the consensus of 5.06% MoM. Meanwhile,
the biggest contributor of March’s inflation rate was the food, beverage, and tobacco basket that
contributed 0.09% MoM to the inflation and grew by 0.35% MoM.

Comment: We believe the inflation rate would be typically higher during Ramadan, which this year
started in late March, and leading up to the Eid al-Fitr celebrations in April. The government should
anticipate higher prices especially from the food and transportation sectors in this month.
Furthermore, we forecast the inflation rate of 3.96% YoY this year, in line with upper band of Bank
Indonesia’s inflation target of 4%.

ERAA: REVENUE IN-LINE, BUT MISS ON NET PROFIT IN FY22

Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA) booked Rp1.0 tn net profit (relatively flat at 0.05% YoY) in FY22. This
was below our expectation, meeting only 88% of our 2022F. This was mainly due to higher finance
expenses, along with weaker gross and operating margins. Revenue increased by 13.8% YoY to
Rp49.5 tn, with GPM slipped by 30 bps YoY to 10.8%, as COGS increased at higher pace of 14.1% YoY.
Operating profit increased by 7% YoY but OPM dented by 20 bps YoY to 3.2% due to higher operating
expenses at 13.6% YoY. On quarterly basis, ERAA booked 4Q22 net profit of Rp333 bn, or increased
by 92.5% QoQ due to seasonality. Revenue grew by 25.9% YoY to Rp14.5 tn, with GPM expanded by
250 bps QoQ to 12.4%, as COGS grew at slower pace of 22.4% YoY. Operating profit rose by 64.8%
QoQ to Rp524 bn, with OPM expanded by 333 bps QoQ to 36.1% in 4Q22.
Comment: Following the earnings miss in FY22, we are reviewing our earnings forecast. We still
have BUY rating for ERAA with 2023F TP of Rp650/sh.

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2
 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, April 04, 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
JCI : 6,827 or increased 22 points (+ 0.32%)
Comment : The Jakarta Composite
mposite Index (JCI) increased 22 points (+ 0.32%) to finish at 6,827.6,827
Traded in the range of high/lowow : 6,849 and 6,805.
6,805 BMRI, BBRI and BBCA consecutively became
leading movers. The index is extending consolidating previous weeks gains between 6,868 and
6790. With the reversal of the candlestick pattern in the green zone, it gives an early indication that
the index will rebound even though it is still limited. Technically
Technically it is just a technical rebound in the
middle of the downward mi term trend. The probability of this increase will be limited byt the
resistance 6,890 level, a break above will propel the index higher. Breakout 6,890 is required for
bullish continuation. On the downside, near term support is located at 6,789, a break below could
turning further weakness.

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3
 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, April 04, 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

STOCK OF THE DAY

BBTN : Testing support level
BBTN was trading unchanged and an closed at 1,225. The stock continues to trade sideway. Technical
bias for the stock is neutral.. The stock has formed a bearish candlestick
ndlestick pattern from support
trendline,, potential for rebound. Itt faces strong support at 1,200. Speculative buy at 1,200 with stop
loss of 1,150 forr taking profit of 1,255.

JPFA : Testing support level

JPFA was trading unchaged and closed at 1.125. The stock continues to trade downside. Technical
bias for the stock is bearish. It faces strong support at 1,075. Should the 1,075 level holds, PGAS
has opportunity to rebound. Near term resistance
resistance is seen at 1,175 and 1,190.
1,190

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4
 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, April 04, 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

PGAS : Testing support level

PGAS fell 1.81% lower and closed
losed at 1,355. The stock continues to trade downside.
downside Technical bias
for the stock is bearish. It faces strong support at 1,325. Should the 1,325 level holds, PGAS has
opportunity to rebound. Near term
erm resistance is seen at 1,380 and 1,420 is possible.

SMGR : Chance to rebound

SMGR rose 0.79% higher and closed at 6,350. 6,350 The stock is consolidating previous weeks gain
between 6,475 and 6,300, trades with a bullish bias. bias. Breakout 6,475 is required for upside
momentum. Next bullish
llish target lies at 6,550 is posibble. Speculative buy at 6,350 with stop loss of
6,200 for taking profit of 6,550.

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5
 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, April 04, 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

CIPTADANA FIXED INCOME DAILY

CURRENCY TRADING RANGE OF TODAY

USD/Rp: 14,920 – 15,020

INDONESIA GOVERNMENT
AVERAGE DEPOSIT RATE
SECURITIES YIELD
Maturity (yrs) Yield (%) 1M 3M 6M 1YR 2YRS
1 5.92 IDR 3.71 3.93 3.83 3.80 3.48
3 6.32 US$ 1.55 1.49 1.48 1.49
5 6.38
10 6.78 JIBOR (RP) 6.40 6.76 6.88 7.08
15 6.98 JIBOR (USS) 7.08 #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A
30 7.07

BASE LENDING RATE EXCHANGE RATE

EXCHANGE RATE % chg.

BI RATE 5.75 1 US$ = IDR 14,970 0.17
FED FUND RATE 5.00 1 US$ = SGD 1.33 0.02
LPS INSURED RATE 1 US$ = JPY 132.25 0.16
IDR 5.25 1 US$ = AUD 0.68 0.04
US$ 1.50 1 US$ = EUR 1.09 0.08

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6
 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, April 04, 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

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advice, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any transaction, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and
qualified legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) you should apprise senior management in your organization as to such legal, tax and
accounting advice (and any risks associated with any transaction and our disclaimer as to these matters.

Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report