DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE

Tuesday, October 26, 2021

CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

GLOBAL  Budget deficit at 2.74% of GDP until Sep-21

Index Last Change % chg  KLBF: 9M21 results slightly above expectations
Dow 35,741 64.13 0.18  UNTR operating volume weak in Sep-21, 9M21 volume mostly strong
S&P 500 4,566 21.58 0.47  IRRA 9M21: Net profit increase by 840.6% YoY to Rp85 bn
Nasdaq 15,227 136.51 0.90
Eido US 24.2 -0.14 -0.57
JCI STATISTIC
H.S.I 26,132 5.10 0.02
Nikkei 28,600 -204.44 -0.71 Tn
7,500 40.0
STI 3,202 -3.28 -0.10
KLCI 1,588 -0.14 -0.01
6,500 30.0
Kospi 3,021 14.38 0.48
SET Thai 1,634 -9.22 -0.56
5,500 20.0

COMMODITIES 4,500 10.0

Index Last Change % chg
Brent Crude Oil ($/bbl) 86.0 0.46 0.54 3,500 0.0

Sep-19
Jan-18

Jun-18

Apr-19

May-21
Feb-20

Dec-20

Oct-21
Nov-18

Jul-20
WTI Crude Oil ($/bbl) 83.8 0.00 0.00
CPO (MYR/ton) 5,244 56.00 1.08
Gold (US$/tr ounce) 1,808 15.08 0.84
Volume JCI Index
Nickel (US$/ton) 20,495 638.00 3.21
Tin (US$/ton) 39,157 317.00 0.82 DAILY TECHNICAL VIEW
Coal (US$/ton) 226.0 -4.00 -1.74

We expect JCI to trade between 6,585 (support) – 6,673 (resistance) level today
BEI STATISTICS EMTK : Buy breached the resistance 1,745
JCI 6,626 Comment : Chance to rebound
Change (1 day) -0.27% ICBP : Speculative buy at 9,025
Change YTD 10.81% Comment : Testing support level
P/E Market (X) 18.7 JSMR : Sell on strength at 4,550
Volume (mn shr) 17,371.8 Comment : Testing resistance level
Value (Rp bn) 11,058.5 TINS : Buy on weakness at 1,580
↑ 254 ↓ 265 ↔ 219 Comment : Testing support level
LQ45 961
% Change (1 day) -0.98% MARKET REVIEW & MARKET OUTLOOK
Regional
INTEREST RATE
Dow Jones gained 0.18% to 35,741 while S&P 500 rose 0.47% to 4,566, both closed at
Current Previous
record highs on Monday. Tesla’s stock rally 12% and hit a USD1 tn market capitalization for
BI 7D Reverse Repo (%) 3.50 3.50
the first time while Facebook ticked 3% higher in after-hours trading after the company
Fed fund rate (%) 0.25 1.25
topped analysts’ earnings expectations for revenue and monthly active users. Today,
inflation mom (%) -0.04 0.03
Alphabet and Microsoft are expected to report their earnings after the bell with Microsoft is
Inflation yoy (%) 1.60 1.59
expecting a strong quarter, bolstered by its key Azure business. As of the close on Monday,
84% of the 117 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings beat expectations.
EXCHANGE RATE From commodity market, WTI crude oil price unchanged at USD83.8/bbl. while nickel rally
Last Change % chg 3.21% to USD20,495/ton.
1 USD = IDR 14,158 35.00 0.25
1 USD = SGD 1.35 0.00 0.04 Domestic
1 USD = JPY 113.72 0.01 0.01 JCI closed at 6,626 or lower by 18 points (-0.27%) on Monday trading however recorded
1 USD = AUD 1.34 0.00 0.05 Rp3.05 tn of net foreign buy. The laggard sectors are Transportation & Logistic (-1.46%),
1 USD = EUR 0.86 0.00 0.02 Consumer Non-Cyclicals (-1.35%) and Consumer Cyclicals (-0.79%) which mainly driven by
BBRI (-2.27% to 4,300), UNVR (-5.57% to 4,580) and TLKM (-2.33% to 3,780) as the key
DUAL LISTING movers. Rupiah weakened by 35 points to 14,158/USD. Our technical desk suggests for
Stocks Close Chg. % chg In Rp. Vol. (ADR) trading within the band of 6,586– 6,673 with possibility to end at lower level.
TLKM 26.6 -0.47 -1.73 3,769 90,994
ISAT 0.2 0.00 0.00 2,832 2,150

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, October 26, 2021
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

BUDGET DEFICIT AT 2.74% OF GDP UNTIL SEP-21

Ministry of Finance (MoF) reported the budget deficit reached Rp452 tn or 2.74% of GDP until Sep-
21. The deficit was 44.9% of the State Budget target at Rp1,006.4 tn (5.7% of GDP). The state revenue
grew by 16.8% YoY to Rp1,354.8 tn (77.7% of target at Rp1,743.6 tn). The revenue was supported by
the tax revenue that grew by 15.7% YoY to Rp1,033 tn (71.5% of target at Rp1,444.5 tn). Meanwhile,
the state expenditure slipped by 1.9% YoY to Rp1,806.8 tn (65.7% of target at Rp2,750 tn). The
growth was formed by the increase in central government spending by 4.4% to Rp1,265.3 tn (65.7%
of target at Rp1,954.5 tn).
Comment: The State Budget update shows the reversal of last year bad figure. We see MoF should
go extra miles to achieve the targets in State Budget especially the state revenue as we are on the
last quarter.

KLBF: 9M21 RESULTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE EXPECTATIONS.

Kalbe Farma (KLBF) reported 9M21 net profit of Rp2.3 tn, which increased by 12.8% YoY mainly due
to higher revenue and solid operating margins. This was slightly higher than our expectation,
forming 79.7% of our 2021F. 9M21 revenue rose by 11.7% YoY to Rp19.1 tn, slightly higher than our
estimate, meeting 78.2% of our 2021F. Revenue growth mainly contributed by Distribution and
Pharma division that increased by 23.9% YoY and 11.2% YoY to Rp6.8 tn and Rp4.2 tn, respectively.
Gross profit improved by 6.5% YoY to Rp8.3 tn with GPM declined by 210bps YoY, as COGS run at
faster rate of 16.0% YoY. However, operating expense ratio declined to 65.7% compared to 67.1% in
9M20, this made operating income to increase by 11.0% YoY to Rp2.8 tn, with OPM remained solid at
14.9%. Operating profit was slightly above our expectation, forming 77.1% of our 2021F. On

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, October 26, 2021
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

quarterly basis, KLBF booked 3Q21 net profit of Rp790 bn, increased by 1.2% QoQ, due to higher
revenue and solid margins. 3Q21 revenue increased by 5.9% QoQ to Rp6.7 tn. Gross profit improved
by 4.8% QoQ to Rp2.8 tn, with GPM slightly declined by 40 bps as COGS ran at faster rate of 6.7%
QoQ. Opex increased by 4.2% QoQ, this made operating income to rise by 6.0% QoQ to Rp1 tn, with
OPM remained solid at 14.9%.
Comment: As the company revised their 2021F revenue and net profit growth guidance to around
11-13% YoY each, we will review our 2021F earnings forecast. At the moment, we have BUY rating
for KLBF with 2022F TP of Rp1,980/sh.

UNTR OPERATING VOLUME WEAK IN SEP-21, 9M21 VOLUME MOSTLY STRONG

United Tractors (UNTR) reported 304 units heavy equipment (HE) volume in Sep-21, which was down
6.7% MoM due mainly to 7% decline in mining HE volume to 170 units coupled with 30% and 49%
drop in agro and forestry HE to 27 and 18 units, respectively. However, 9M21 volume jumped
significantly to 2,194 units (+84% YoY, 91% of our 2021F). PAMA overburden and coal production
were also down by 1.8% and 4.1% MoM in September to 71.5 mn bcm and 9.3 mn tons, bringing
9M21 volume to 630 mn bcm (-0.4% YoY, 79% of 2021F) and 87.3 mn tons (+2.3% YoY and 78% of
2021F). UNTR sold 293 k tons of coal from its own mine in Sep-21, down 5.2% MoM while 9M21
volume still grew by 8% YoY to 7.7 mn tons or at 63% of our 2021F. The company sold 27 k oz of gold
in Sep-21 and 258 k oz in 9M21, relatively flat MoM and YoY.
Comment: Jugding from 9M21 operational metrics, we see upside risks to our 2021F earnings as
sales from machinery and Pama OB and coal production volume, which together contribute to 70%
of revenue, met 77-91% of our forecasts. We will revise our earnings and TP on UNTR after 9M21
earnings report which might be released this week.

IRRA 9M21: NET PROFIT INCREASE BY 840.6% YOY TO RP85 BN

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, October 26, 2021
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

Itama Ranoraya (IRRA) reported 9M21 net profit of Rp85 bn, skyrocketed by 840.6% YoY, mainly due
to higher revenue. 9M21 revenue rose by 670.1% YoY to Rp1.1 tn. This was underpinned by low base
effect in 9M20, where most of the sales came in 4Q20. Gross profit soared by 646.8% YoY to Rp188
bn with GPM declined by 50bps YoY to 17.3%, as COGS run at faster rate of 675.2% YoY. However,
operating expense ratio declined to 6.6% compared to 9.8% in 9M20, this made operating income to
increase by 925.9% YoY to Rp117 bn, with OPM expanded by 270 bps YoY to 10.7%. On quarterly
basis, IRRA reported 3Q21 net profit of Rp34 bn, increased by 14.6% QoQ, due to higher revenue.
3Q21 revenue increased by 54.6% QoQ to Rp521 bn. Gross profit improved by 24.9% QoQ to Rp83 bn,
with GPM declined by 380 bps QoQ as COGS ran at faster rate of 61.9% QoQ. Operating income rose
by 17.9% QoQ to Rp49 bn, with OPM declined by 290 bps QoQ to 9.4%.
Comment: We see this as a positive achievements for IRRA, as they can booked strong sales in
9M21. We believe sales in 9M21 mainly contributed by Abott Panbio, and One Ject syringe. Using the
2021 company guidance of 100% YoY net profit growth, at the moment, IRRA trades at 23x 2021
PER.

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, October 26, 2021
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
JCI : 6,626 or decreased 18 points, (- 0.27 %)
Comment : The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) ended lower 18 points or -0.27 % at 6,626. BBRI,
UNVR and TLKM consecutively became leading movers. Traded in the range of 6,625 and 6,673. The
index, which had reached the positive zone, finally reversed towards the lowest level and closed in
the negative zone. With the gravestone doji candlestick pattern from the bullish index movement,
then this can be a signal that the index will reverse direction to go down and be corrected. Support
at 6,585 and 6,505. Resistance at 6,673 and 6,687.

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, October 26, 2021
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

STOCK OF THE DAY

EMTK : Chance to rebound
Bounced and break the resistance 1,745 opening a chance for EMTK for short term uptrend.
Resistance at 1,840 and 2,220. Support at 1,745 and 1,630.

ICBP : Testing support level

Technical correction and pullback after breakout 630 and formed a high price at 675. Chance to
rebound with limited risk below 620.

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, October 26, 2021
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

JSMR : Testing resistance level

Bounce off from technical support 4,350. JSMR has a chance to rise and test the resistance at 4,550
and 4,650.

TINS : Testing support line

Technical correction after touching resistance 1,770. Tend to pullback and test support 1,580-1,600.

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, October 26, 2021
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

CIPTADANA FIXED INCOME DAILY

CURRENCY TRADING RANGE OF TODAY

USD/Rp: 14,108 – 14,208

INDONESIA GOVERNMENT
AVERAGE DEPOSIT RATE
SECURITIES YIELD
Maturity (yrs) Yield (%) 1M 3M 6M 1YR 2YRS
1 3.10 IDR 3.33 3.51 3.56 3.60 3.22
3 4.24 US$ 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.57
5 5.03
10 6.05 JIBOR (RP) 3.56 3.75 3.91 4.07
15 6.29 JIBOR (USS) 4.07 #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A
30 6.84

BASE LENDING RATE EXCHANGE RATE

EXCHANGE RATE % chg.

BI RATE 3.50 1 US$ = IDR 14,158 -0.25
FED FUND RATE 0.25 1 US$ = SGD 1.35 -0.04
LPS INSURED RATE 1 US$ = JPY 113.72 -0.01
IDR 5.25 1 US$ = AUD 0.75 -0.05
US$ 1.50 1 US$ = EUR 1.16 -0.02

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, October 26, 2021
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

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