Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 47 (2021) 101452

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Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/seta

Green growth of cereal food production under the constraints of

agricultural carbon emissions: A new insights from ARDL and VECM models
Mansoor Ahmed Koondhar a, Noshaba Aziz b, Zhixiong Tan c, Shaoxiong Yang a,
Kashif Raza Abbasi d, Rong Kong a, *
a
College of Economics and Management, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Xianyang 712100, China
b
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
c
School of Public Policy and Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 40044, China
d
School of Economics, Shanghai University, 200444, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The aim of this study is to investigate the green growth of cereal food production under the constraints of
Cereal Food Production agricultural carbon emissions and area sown. A qualitative time-series data from 1985 to 2018 was used to
Agricultural Carbon Emissions analyze the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), vector error correction model (VECM), and Novel dynamic
Area Sown
ARDL models. The empirical results of the long-run and short-run nexus show that the increasing in area sown
Food Production Index
Dynamic ARDL Model
and food production index resulting to increase cereal food production. While agricultural carbon emission only
confirms short-run significant negative effect and predicts that the decreasing agricultural carbon emissions will
support to the increase of cereal food production. The novel dynamic ARDL model revealed that in long-run 10%
positive change in agricultural carbon emission decreases cereal food production and a 10% decrease in agri­
cultural carbon emission will steadily increase cereal food production. Besides, the VECM model results predict
that bidirectional Granger causality runs from area sown and food production index to the cereal food production
while unidirectional Granger causality exists from cereal food production to agricultural carbon emissions.
Overall, conclusion the agricultural carbon emissions and area sown are accountable for reducing cereal food
productivity. By switching from chemical fertilizers to organic fertilizers, farmers can enhance farm productivity
in a healthy and sustainable environment.

Introduction
Food security has become a challenging and threatening issue due to
the rapidly growing population, increasing food demand, and the
decreasing area under cropland as well as reduced soil fertility due to the
over-application of fertilizers [10]. Globally, the population rose to
more than 8 billion in 2018, from 1.65 billion in 1990 [83]. Still, the
production of cereal food per person has remained the same over the
20th century; mainly because of technological advancement, especially
innovations in high-yield production-based rice and wheat varieties,
which were obtained under green revolutions and played a vital role to
meet the food demand for the rapidly growing population [70]. In the
modern era, along with increased food demand, food consumption
patterns also transformed due to the fast-growing population, which
eventually lead to the exploitation of available resources. While looking
back over the last two to three decades, subsequently the rate of the
growing population peaked at 1.66% and started deteriorating and
demolishing to smaller than 0.5% by 2009 [96]. Previous literature
regarding China’s supply of food patterns and forecast of food demand
has given a few bits of knowledge into the possibilities of China’s food
security in the future. An early review paper published by Lv [53]
concentrated on China’s cereal food production and forecasted food
demand for 2020/2030. The results demonstrated a broad scope for both
food consumption and cereal grains production in the context of China,
including skeptical and ideological perspectives on the nation’s grain
imports. It might be possible because the more significant part of the
cynical projections were made during the 1990 s and early 2000 s and
frequently originated from unseeing doubts about China’s food pro­
duction efficiency [3,22]. Norse et al. [61] studied the forecast of food
demand and supply in China in the 2020 s regarding cereals, and other

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: socialist.mansoor@yahoo.com (M.A. Koondhar), noshabaaziz@yahoo.com (N. Aziz), tzxcqu@126.com (Z. Tan), ysx0319@nwafu.edu.cn
(S. Yang), kashifabbasi@shu.edu.cn (K. Raza Abbasi), kr1996@163.com (R. Kong).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2021.101452
Received 4 August 2020; Received in revised form 24 June 2021; Accepted 5 July 2021
Available online 16 July 2021
2213-1388/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
M.A. Koondhar et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 47 (2021) 101452

significant food products found that it will be an independent country Table 1

soon regarding rice production and wheat production i.e. accounting for Summary of previous literature about cereal food production and other
90% of corn and other cereal crops in 2020 s. They came up with an variables.
idealistic view that China’s food security would be no longer in danger Authors Variables Data Models Summery Countries
from the environmental pollution and predicted to sustain the China’s Ali et al [4] CFP, CO2, 1961–2014 ARDL CO2CFP↓ Pakistan
agricultural industry. GDP, AVA
One of the main focuses of the previous survey is that China’s food Amponsah CFP, CO2 , 1961–2010 ARDL CO2CFP↓ Ghana
production and imports will rely heavily on the government’s policies et al [5] RGDP
Chandio CFP, Land, 1982–2014 ARDL CO2CFP↓ Pakistan
and have taken the view that local production will rise rather than im­
[13] FDI, CO2,
ports in the future [53,60]. Norse et al. [61] considered the current LUC, ISD,
changes in China’s policies for food. They revealed that China’s food Fer, AL
policies are significantly informative for food supply and encompass Mahrous CFP, CO2, 1961–2013 ARDL CO2CFP↓ Egypt
healthy nutrition for the fast-growing population. As Huang and Yang [56] PP, Temp,
RP
[32] in their study mentioned that policy changes are moved towards Koondhar et CFP, ACO2, 1976–2018 NARDL CO2CFP↓ Pakistan
national food independence and focused on concerns regarding how al [43] EC, Fer
China ought to develop the agricultural industry for national economic Chandio et CFP, CO2, 1968–2014 ARDL CO2CFP↓ Turkey
development over the long-run. Thinking about the ongoing policies and al [15] PP, Temp,
LUC, EC,
changes in the supply of cereal food and demand, forecasting investi­
RP,
gation can improve our conception of China’s future food security. Pikson et al CFP, LAF, 1990Q1- ARDL CO2CFP↓ China
The agriculture sector has been considered a vital entity to bring [69] CO2, EC, 2013Q
social and economic growth in China. However, due to immense pres­ APP,
sure on available resources by dense inhabitants, huge cultivated areas ATemp,
PPV,
have altered the geography, carbon emissions, and China’s atmosphere.
TempV
In this scenario, China’s agricultural industry is genuinely desperate to LUC, EC,
defend against environmental change [20]. In the forthcoming two de­ RP,
cades, China’s agricultural sector might be unable to produce enough Sossou et al CFP, PP, 1991–2016 OLS CO2CFP/ Burkino
[84] Temp, CO2, Faso
food to feed one-third of the world’s population in 2030, under the
PP2, Temp2,
massive pattern of agricultural carbon emissions [46]. Agricultural RP, GCP
carbon emissions have turned out to be one of the challenging threats Attiaoui et CFP, PP, 1975–2016 ARDL CO2CFP/ Tunisia
faced by human beings. It influences practically all parts of the society, al [6] CS, Temp PMG
especially the food supply even cereal food. In the long-term agricultural Simionescu CFP, GHG, 2000–2016 ARDL GHG, European
et al [82] Fer FERCFP↓ Union
carbon emission brings problems in the ecosystem resulting in climate
Warsame et CP, PP, 1985–2016 ARDL CO2CP/ Somalia
condition changes. Among the numerous effects of climate change, the al [91] Temp, CO2,
risk reverse to the agricultural industry is considered one of the AL, LUC
dangerous effects. The climate changes affect the agricultural sector Kumar et al CFP, PP, 1971–2016 FGLS CO2, Lower-
[44] Temp, CO2, PPCFP↓ Middle
along with the quantity and quality of cereal food in different ways [23].
AS, RP income
For instance, the rising temperature, changing precipitation systems, countries
and expanded environmental carbon emission levels influence physical
factors such as the crop maturity cycle, water availability for irrigation, Note: CFP Cereal food production, CO2 emission, AVA Agricultural value added,
RGDP Real Domestic product, LUC land use under cereal crop, ISD Improved
and breakout of pesticides. During the 20th century, a natural turnout
seed distribution, AL Agricultural labor, Fer Fertilizer consumption, PP Percep­
was seen in crop yield in response to the Northern Hemisphere
tions, Temp Temperature, EC Energy Consumption, RP Rural population, ATemp
ecosystem [94]. China is one of the country who hit hard by carbon Average Temperature, PPV Perceptions Variabilities, TempV Temperature Var­
emissions because of its large territories, complex topographical con­ iabilities, PP2 Perception square, Temp2 Temperature square, GCP Growth in
ditions, enormous fluctuations in the atmosphere, and high intensity in Cereal Production, CS Capital stock, Al agricultural labor, ARDL Autoregressive
climate change [17,24,40,81,87,89]). Notably, China’s agricultural Distributed Lag, NARDL Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag, OLS Ordi­
sector affected return back by agricultural carbon emissions, but its nary Least Square, PMG Pooled Mean Group.
socio-economic factors are also leading towards deterioration [26,85].
Further, Table 1 includes a summary of the literature to help readers
understand the previous literature and identify research gaps. change, and concluded that cereal production affected by energy con­
The main driving factor of food insecurity includes the decrease of sumption, as well as carbon emission [21,68,74,78]. Although they used
arable land due to urbanization and pressure from the growing popu­ different models such as ARDL, NARDL, OLS, and PMG to estimate the
lation, which in turn causes an increased demand for food and changes association between selected variables for different countries using time
in the consumption of food patterns [22,30,31]. During the midst of the series and panel data. Still, the correlation from independent variables to
1990 s, due to carbon emissions, food consumption patterns lead to the cereal production is unclear. Because the previous literature just focuses
reduction of food demand owing to the increasing demand for livestock on climate change. But this study is different in the following ways; this
products and food security [8,18,33,54,88]. Further flow chart of factors study selected cereal food production as dependent variable because
affecting the food security is given in Fig. 1. after the shock of COVID-19 and delayed spring cultivation time, the
Keeping in view the above discussion, the current study aimed to Chinese government is more concerned about saving cereal food and
investigate the green growth of cereal production under constraints of improving the production of cereal food in a sustainable environmental
agricultural carbon emission, area sown, and food production index in manner. Current study selected the agricultural carbon emission, food
China. This study used term green growth, because China is the largest production index and area sown under cereal food production as inde­
carbon emission, and huge population country. Therefore, it is not easy pendent variables, account to these variables are not investigated in
without using chemical application of inputs (which contribute to major previous studies. Additionally, this study will also devote into the
proportion of agricultural carbon emission) to produce enough cereal food. literature by affirming that the 10% positive and 10% negative shock
However, within the dearth of literature, many researchers have already from independent variables to dependent variable will run the upward
researched in the context of food security, environment and climate

2
M.A. Koondhar et al.
Fig. 1. Flow chart of how does the pollutant emissions effect on food security [94].
or downward trend both in the long-run and short-run effect. For
investigating the long-run and short-run nexus between variables, this
study estimated the ARDL, VECM model, and novel dynamic ARDL
simulation model by using time series data from 1985 to 2018. To the
best of our knowledge, this study is differ from previous literature, as
there is no researcher who claimed similar research in the previous
literature. Furthermore, the current study will show a clearly pictorial
diagram and will contribute into the literature for a better understand­
ing of the nexus of selected variables. It will also give a pathfinder root to
researchers for future research. The results of this study will help to
Chinese policymakers to develop new policies for increasing sustainable
cereal food production owing reducing the agricultural carbon emis­
sions by switching from chemical fertilizers to organic fertilizers. Policy
implication of this study may will contribute into China’s policies for
achieve the target of carbon neutrality before 2060, and China has set to
peak the carbon emissions by 2030. The main object of this study is to
build and buttress the green growth of cereal production under the
constraints of agricultural carbon emission in China. Furthermore, this
article is divided into the following sections. Section two is research
methodology in which we describe the data collection, sources of data
collection, variables description and statistical model specifications.
Results and discussion are placed in section three, in which we inter­
preted the results, and provided possible reasoning for empirical results.
In the section four, we provided the conclusion of the study and based on
the conclusion policy implications are measured for sustainable green
growth in cereal food production.
3
Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 47 (2021) 101452
Research methodology
Data
In the introduction and literature review section, it is clear that many
researchers have investigated the relationship between carbon emis­
sions, energy consumption, and cereal production for different countries
using time series and panel data. But this study is different and aims to
understand the growth of cereal food production under the effect of
carbon emissions both in the long-run and short-run. For this study, we
used qualitative time-series data from 1985 to 2018. Data for agricul­
tural carbon emissions, area sown under cereal crop, cereal food pro­
duction, and food production index were collected from World Bank
indicators and the Statistical Bureau of China. This study selected cereal
food production rather than select all kinds of food production because
the recently Chinese government has revealed the policy to produce
more cereal food and save food wastages [36]). For Chinese people,
cereal food is the staple food such as rice, wheat, and maize [16]. China
has revised policies for food saving and producing more cereal food for
green development, reducing agricultural carbon emissions, and
reducing pressure on natural resources [36]. For this study, the variables
were selected based on the literature linkages and prediction effect on
cereal food production. Further, the variable importance of projection
(VIP) technique by partial least square (PLS) algorithm was analyzed to
confirm the selected variables are fit for this study. VIP is a straight­
forward approach to quantify the confidence intervals around the co­
efficient of each variable. Unfortunately given the dependent variable
for formulating the PLS hat-matrix, a closed analytical form for the
M.A. Koondhar et al.
uncertainty is not available for PLS regression coefficients. The matrix of
the independent variable and dependent variable are decomposed into
latent structures in an iterative process. In projection of PLS the beta
should be 1; if it is less than one, it seems there is not enough correlation
between dependent variables and independent variables. For the results
of PLS please see appendix 1. For detailed information of each variable,
see Table2.
For this study, we estimated VECM and ARDL models because a
number of researchers have already used the same models to assess the
long- and short-run cointegration nexus between different variables for
different studies. According to scholars, ARDL model estimates the
correlation among solitarily economic variables in an unstructured
pathway by employing an autoregressive distributed lag and vector
error correction model. The ARDL and VECM models on one hand are
grounded models for the statistical properties of available data; on the
other hand, in both models, each endogenous variable is measured by
the lag value for all the existing variables in the system. Therefore, the
univariate autoregressive model was formulated containing different
variables along with time variance. Before estimating the ARDL and
VECM model, we checked the multicollinearity issue between variables
by variance inflation factors VIF, and due to the multicollinearity issue,
we have dropped one variable, for results of VIF see Appendix II. Then
we used the cointegration equations to predict the variables’ correlation,
afterward we used the Engle and Granger combined cointegration
equation using the trace error correction technique. Subsequently con­
firming the cointegration among desired variables, we employed the
ARDL model, and all the equations for the VECM model were made
based on the ARDL model. This study aimed to investigate the long-run
and short-run association among desired variables; in this case, the
short-run trend shows fluctuation on a larger scale. Then the VECM
approach is considered as appropriate to explore the long-term causality
among selected variables. The assessment was measured by the
following Equation (1).
CFPt = H(ASt , ACO2t , FPIt )
See Equation (3) for the full form of abbreviations. Assuming that a
nonlinear correlation is declared from cereal food production to area
sown, agricultural CO2 emission, and crop production index, the model
will be changed to Equation (2).
CFPt = φ0 + φ1 ASt + φ3 ACO2t + φ4 FPI1 + μt
Before applying the primary model, in this study, compulsory tests
were implicated to understand better and to clearly portray the nexus
between dependent and independent variables; therefore, our model
was converted by taking a double lag, as mentioned below in Equation
(3):
LnCFPt = φ0 + φ1 LnASt + φ3 LnACO2t + φ4 LnFPI1 + εt
Where CFP denotes the cereal food production, AS represents the area
sown under cereal crops, ACO2 is the emissions discharged by the
agricultural industry described in an equation with the sign of ACO2,
and FPI signifies the Food production index. Ln implies the logarithm, ε
represents the error term, and t acquires the time index. The above
equation mentioned the dependent and independent variables. Further
Table 2
Details of the variables and data sources.
Variable Abbreviation Unit Data source
Cereal food production CFP mt World Bank
Area sown AS Square. Km China Statistical
Bureau
Agricultural CO2 ACO2 1000 mt CO2 World Bank
emission equi
Food production index FPI 2004–2006 = World Bank
100
Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 47 (2021) 101452
details regarding each variable and the data sources are mentioned in
Table 2.
Unit root test
The unit root test is the initial test for checking the stationarity of
variables; Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillip Perron (PP) are
the necessary tests of the unit root; because the ADF and PP are used at
the level form as well as first difference of the each series, and in ADF
test the lag length is included to solve the issue of robustness, and
autocorrelation. The ADF and PP equation is shown below.
∑
OP
∇Tt = ϑ0 + ϑTt + Qi ∇Tt− i + εt (4)
i=k
Where ∇signifies the first operator difference, Tt denotes timespan, ϑ0
connotes the constant, OP denotes the maximum lag numbers on the
dependent variable, and ε is the error term’s white noise. The ADF test of
the unit root offers the snowballing of the statistical distribution of ADF.
The equation of the PP test is mentioned in Equation (5).
∇Tt = ϖ + S* Tt− 1 + εt (5)
The PP test is also the unit root test associated with statistics by
measuring the S* value of the coefficient.
Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing model
The autoregressive distributed lag model created and estimated by
Pesaran and Pesaran [63], Pesaran and Shin [66], and Pesaran et al. [64]
and Pesaran et al. [65] used the commands of an unrestricted vector
error correction model to analyze how does the green growth of cereal
food production affected by carbon emission and has divided by small
changes in long-run and short-run area sown and food production index.
(1) As compared with other statistical models, this model desired variables
are supposed to be functioned of its own past values (auto-regressive) as
well as present and previous values of other variables (distributed-lag).
The main benefit of an ARDL model is that this model can handle the
variables at different lag orders, and analyze the well-known model like
statistical regression. But when the variables have unit root then the
(2) ARDL model does not show clear association between variables. If the
data has stochastic (random) trend then the dynamics in an ARDL model
would approximate this trend rather than modeling real dynamics.
However, if the data does not show stochastic trend then this critique is
invalid. The congregation relationship between variable can be
measured at upper bound and lower I(0), I(1) in ARDL bound test rather
than manually analysis [63]. The ARDL model analyzed the properties
(3) of minor and upright samples [28]. Furthermore, the ARDL model offers
that although the data of descriptive variables are endogenous variables,
the model can still be run [63,66]. The equation (6) is given for the
ARDL model.
∑
m ∑
S ∑
F
∇LnCFP=φ0 φ1i ∇lnCFPt− i + φ2i ∇lnASt− i + φ3i ∇lnACO2t−
i
i=1 i=1 i=1
∑
G
φ4i ∇lnFPIt− i + ∂1 lnCFPt=1 + ∂2 lnASt=1 + ∂3 lnACO2t=1 + ∂4 lnFPIt=1 + ε
i=1
(6)
Where φ0 specifies the constant intercept, ∇ reflects the breakdown
machinist. M, S, F, and G, exemplify the lags’ order, ∂ represent the long-
run coefficient, and εt indicate the error term sign. The autoregressive
distributed lag analysis approach starts with the bound test for analyzing
the model empirically, and Eviews 10 was used as a statistical tool for
analyzing the data. Before exploring the Ordinary least Squares (OLS)
model, we used the null hypothesis of no co-integration for acquiring the
long-run nexus, H0 = φ1 = φ2 = φ3 = φ4 = 0 was tested against the
4
M.A. Koondhar et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 47 (2021) 101452

alternative hypothesis, i.e. H0 ∕ = φ1 ∕= φ2 ∕= φ3 ∕

= φ4 ∕= 0.The F-test production, area sown, and carbon emissions. Therefore, the need to
estimated for confirmation: do any long-term relationships exist be­ determine the co-integration confidence level is persisting, as the main
tween the selected variables for this study, or not? The analysis was done target of analysis is to estimate the VECM based Granger causality
for the bound F-test based on the critical value of Pasarana et al. (2001). among the selected variables. The results of this approach observe casual
In the presence sets of two critical values envisioned for significance- impacts from one variable to another by seeing likelihood based on
level linking with the time series and without the time series, I(0) rep­ significant probability and the available value of the series. We need to
resents difference at level, and I(1) signifies the 1st difference. Among simplify the pathways of causatives and estimate the short-run Granger
the critical values, we can check the results of the upper and lower causality to measure the mean of the VECM model [19]. In the approach,
bound of value (UBC& LBC). It runs a band instigating all the variables’ the uncertainty variables that are generally combined for the short-run
classifications for the ordered level I(0) and 1st difference I(1). In case, and long-run association, analyzing the vector error correction model
the analyzed value of the F-statistics exceeds the upper bound value, this ECT-1. Conversely, the uncertainty co-integration by estimating the
meant that the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative hypothesis VECM approach does not exist; previously, it probably had a short-run
is accepted. In contrast, if the critical F-state remains below the lower association linkage with the VAR model. Therefore, the VECM method
bound, the null hypothesis is accepted and the alternative hypothesis is is complicated for the analytical causality association among the desired
rejected. If the value of the F-state remained under both the UBC &LBC, variables selected for this study.
the results would be inclusive. Consequently, the lag order for variables
∇CFPt = f (ASt , ACO2t , FPIt ) (9)
was selected by considering the circumstances of Schwarz–Bayesian
criteria (SBC) and Akaike’s information criteria (AIC). The SBC was ⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤
∇CFPt λ1 β11,1 β12,1 β13,1 β14,1
chosen by considering the lowest lag length, while AIC is equipped in ⎢ ∇ASt ⎥ ⎢ λ2 ⎥ ⎢ β21,1 β22,1 β23,1 β24,1 ⎥
order to select the strongest lag length. The long-run association among ⎢ ⎥ = ⎢ ⎥+⎢ ⎥
⎣ ∇ACO2t ⎦ ⎣ λ3 ⎦ ⎣ β31,1 β32,1 β33,1 β34,1 ⎦
variables was estimated based on the AIC or SBC criterion collection of ∇FPIt λ4 β41,1 β42,1 β43,1 β44,1
the ARDL model. After the long-run association was analyzed, then the
⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤
error correction term (ECT-1) was analyzed for a short-run association ∇CFPt− 1 β11,k β12,k β13,k β14,k
among variables. For short-run correlation analysis, the equation was ⎢ ∇ASt− 1 ⎥
⎢
⎢
⎥ + ..... + ⎢ β21,k β22,k β23,k β24,k ⎥
⎥
estimated as shown below. ⎣ ∇ACO2t− 1 ⎦ ⎣ β31,k β32,k β33,k β34,k ⎦
∇FPIt− 1 β41,k β42,k β43,k β44,k
∑
n ∑
n
∇lnCFPt = φ0 + φ1i ∇lnCPt− i + φ2i ∇lnASt− i + ⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤
∇CFPt− k θ1 γ1
(7)
i=1 i=1
∑
n ∑
n ⎢ ∇ASt− k ⎥ ⎢ θ2 ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
+ φ3i ∇lnACO2t− i + φ4i ∇lnFPIt− 1 + θECTi=1 + Vt ⎢ ⎥ + ⎢ ⎥ECTt− 1 + ⎢ γ2 ⎥
⎣ ∇ACO2t− k ⎦ ⎣ θ3 ⎦ ⎣ γ3 ⎦
i=1 i=1
∇FPIt− k θ4 γ4
The error correction term (ECT) acknowledged the speed of the
Aimed at the VECM method, the equation for the causality technique
adjustment and shows that how the variables run to the long-run asso­
is mentioned in Equation (9), where ∇ represents the change in opera­
ciation in a short period of time. For confirmation of the short-run
tors, the sign of error-based term was mentioned above, γ, ECTt− 1 ac­
correlation, ECT-1 must have a p-value less than 0.5% with a negative
quires the meaning of the error correction term significantly according
sign of the coefficient. Diagnostic and stability tests were analyzed to
to the sign of long-run equilibrium, while the coefficient of the error
confirm the goodness and fit of the model. These approaches tested
term that is represented with the sign of “θ” mathematically diagnoses
casual correlation, normality, and heteroscedasticity. In addition to
the negative influence and probability significance value less than 0.05,
being suggested for the study of short-run stability, the cumulative sum
which indicates that a long-run association exists. To further investigate
(CUSUM) and the cumulative sum of squares (CUSUMQ) are measured
the short-run association, we measure the F-state under the shadow of
to check the stability of the estimated model. In this study, we also
the Durbin Watson (D.W) value. Suppose that β12, k ∕ = 0∀k connotes
evaluated the novel dynamic ARDL (DYNARDL) algorithm for validation
that Area Sown has Granger causality association with cereal food
of the model and better interpretation of the substantive significant re­
production; it is likely that when β21 , k ∕
= 0∀k then AS will follow the
sults. Dynamic simulate ARDL was introduced by Jordan and Philips
relationship to CFP.
[37]. Novel dynamic ARDL has the command to differentiate a variety of
ARDL models significantly. DYNARDL analysis simulates and stores the
Results and discussion
results for generating the plots of a variety of the ARDL models. If the
simulating model has an error, it is necessary to run the pssbound as a
Descriptive analysis
post estimation command. There is another advantage from DYNARDL
that if the independent variable is exogenously weak then DYNARDL
Descriptive statistics reveal the variables’ underlying calculation, in
helps visualize the counterpart change due to a weak exogenous variable
descriptive tests included the mean, median, maximum, minimum, and
at a single time series, by estimating the stochastic simulation approach.
Authors are widely using DYNARDL because it is convenient to show
substantive results for the time series models, whose coefficient is al­ Table 3
ways hidden interpretation or non-intuitive [67]. Equation (8) is given Descriptive statistics of cereal food production (LnCFP), agricultural CO2
for the dynamic ARDL model. emission (LnACO2), area sown (LnAS), and food production index (LnFPI).

∇ln CFPt = δ0 + ∂0 ln CFPt− 1 + ∂1 ln ASt + φ1 ∇ln ASt− 1 + ∂2 ln ACO2t Tests LnCFP LnACO2 LnAS LnFPI
+φ2 ∇ln ACO2t− 1 + ∂3 ln FPIt + φ3 ∇ln FPIt− 1 + ECTt− 1 Mean 1.300 13.180 15.460 19.899
Median 1.041 13.142 15.062 19.860
Where, ∂indicate the sign of long-run, and φ∇stand for short-run effect. Maximum 2.462 13.325 19.823 20.247
Minimum 0.559 13.068 14.411 19.634
Std. Dev 0.551 0.084 1.031 0.170
Vector error correction model “VECM” Skewness 0.521 0.582 2.493 0.546
Kurtosis 1.947 1.743 10.803 2.446
Above mentioned equations and models are not enough to analyze Jarque–Bera 3.108 4.157 26.036 2.1277
Probability 0.211 0.125 0.000 0.345
the long- and short-run correlation because they do not openly
demonstrate the causal nexus between the green growth of cereal food Note: Authors analyzed by Eviews.

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M.A. Koondhar et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 47 (2021) 101452

standard deviation values. The error, Jarque–Bera, and P-value of each
variable is calculated, which can be seen in Table 3. The results of LnAS
show a significant correlation with the food production “LnCFP.” The
results demonstrate that the area sown under cereal crop and agricul­
tural carbon emission are positively and significantly correlated with
crop production. Furthermore, the results of correlation statistics can be
seen in appendixIII.
Unit root test
Table 4 displays the findings of Phillip Perron (PP) and the
Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test. The results of both in­
spections given in Table 4 connote seem that the LnAS has stationarity at
the level I(0) and 1st difference I(1). At the same time, other variables
are also integrated only at 1st difference I(1). The standard requirement
for the estimation of ARDL model is that if the variables are not inte­
grated at the level I(0) or the 1st difference I(1), we would be unable to
run the ARDL model. But, in this study, the variables are stationary at I
(0) and I(1). Therefore, we can analyze the ARDL model, following the
other authors who already estimated the ARDL model [19,59,63,64,66].
When the sample size is less than 60%, using Akaike information criteria
becomes necessary while employing the ARDL model [49].
The autoregressive distributed lag bound testing approach was
employed for examining the cointegration between cereal food pro­
duction, area sown, agricultural carbon emission and food production
index, for both small and large samples, estimating the critical values
recommended by Engle and Granger [19], Pesaran et al. [65], Haug.,
(2002) and Narayan, [59]. The results of Table 5 display that the F-
statistics values for HcFP (CFP/ACO2, AS, FPI),HACO2 (ACO2/CFP, AS, FPI),
HAS (AS/ACO2, CFP, FPI), and HFPI (FPI/CFP, ACO2, AS), are 9.901,
10.976, 14.673, and 3.049, respectively. In contrast, the value of the F-
statistics was measured based on the upper bound critical value with the
standard significant level. From Table 5 it is clear that
exceptHFPI (FPI/CFP, ACO2, AS), others’ F-state values are more than
upper bound critical value at 5% level of significance. This indicates that
the F-state rejects the null hypothesis and confirms the cointegration
between the variables. Furthermore, the critical value of upper and
lower bound is measured significantly at 10%, 5% and 1% levels
respectively, indicating that the cointegration is running in parallel
within regressors to fix values. These results were confirmed by the table
of Pesaran et al. [65], and the value exceeds the upper bound value,
whereas the (LBC) and (UBC) critical values of 3.01 and 4.08 respec­
tively were recorded at the 5% significance level. The results of this
study indistinguishable with early published studies such as Koondhar
et al. [43] confirmed the cointegration correlation between carbon
emission, energy consumption and cereal food production. In addition,
there are also a number of authors who analyzed the ARDL bound testing
Table 5
Results of autoregressive distributed lag bound testing approach.
Variables F-State K=?
Hcfp (CFP/ACO2, AS, FPI) 9.901 K=3
HACO2 (ACO2/CFP, AS, FPI) 10.976
HAS (AS/FPI, ACO2, CFP) 14.673
HFPI (FPI/ACO2, AS, CFP) 3.049
Sign Value I(0) I(1)
10% 2.37 3.20
5% 2.79 3.67
2.5% 3.01 4.08
1% 3.65 4.66
Note: Results calculated by the authors using Eviews 10.
to found cointegration nexus of independent variables with depended
variables i.e.,Ben Jebli and Ben Youssef [11], Khan et al. [39], Koondhar
et al. [42], Sarkodie et al., (2019) and Baz et al. [9]. Furthermore, the
critical value of F-statistics was recorded more than the UBC and was
significant at a 1% level suggesting that selected variables for this study
are cointegrated. Now, if we revise and acknowledge, H0 = φ1 = φ2 =
φ3 = φ4 = 0 there is nothing wrong.
In addition to further understanding the stability of cointegration
between variables, we analyzed the trace statistics and the recom­
mended critical value of Max Eigen statistics based on the integration
equation; for the results, see Table 6 The results illustrate that in trace
statistics at the 0.05% critical value, cons≤0 is significant at the 1%
level, and the remaining variables are significant at the 0.5% and 10%
significant level. Considering the critical value of 0.01%, only cons≤0, is
significant at the level of 1%. In the Max Eigen test, by the critical value
of 0.05% and 0.01%, only cons≤0 is significant at 1% level. Others are
significant at 5% and 10%, respectively, while cons≤2 in the max Eigen
test do not exhibit significance sign at 0.05 critical value. These signif­
icant results accept the alternative hypothesis and reject the null hy­
pothesis at a significance level of 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively, which
indicates that there is a cointegration association between variables at
0.01% critical value. This study probability value was measured
grounded on the MacKinnon–Haug–Michelis [55] p-value theory. In
early research, the outmost comparable results were declared by Ozcan,
[62], Koondhar et al. [42], Rehman et al. [75], Koondhar et al. [41],
Aziz et al. [7] and Zaid et al (2020).
In addition, a superior lag order was selected for the long-run and
short-run association analysis. The whole model is meaningful due to an
unrestricted error correction term, which is used to confirm the corre­
lation. Thus, a prominent and appropriate lag order was found based on
the values of the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Schwarz
Bayesian Criterion (SC), and the Hannan–Quinn Information Criterion

Table 4 Table 6
Results of Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillip and Perron based on unit root Results of trace statistics and Max Eigen Test based on the cointegration test.
test. Hypothesized No of Eigen Trace 0.05% Critical 0.01% Critical
CE(s) Value Stat Value Value
Variables Level 1st Difference Outcome
Trace Test
Intercept Trend and Intercept Trend and
Coin ≤ 0* 0.780 81.890 47.856*** 54.681***
Intercept Intercept
Coin ≤ 1* 0.452 33.358 27.797** 35.458**
Augmented Dickey–Fuller
Coin ≤ 2* 0.237 14.053 15.494* 19.937*
LnCFP –1.884 –1.431 –3.513** –3.945** I(1)
LnACO2 –0.396 –1.406 –4.112** –4.138** I(I) Coin ≤ 3* 0.154 5.387 3.841** 6.634**
LnAS 2.178 –6.083*** –6.563*** –7.124*** I(0)/I(1)
Max Eigen Test
LnFPI –0.124 –1.713 –5.877** –5.776** I(1)
Coin ≤ 0* 0.780 48.531 27.584*** 32.715***
Phillip Perron Coin ≤ 1* 0.0.452 19.304 21.131* 25.861*
LnCFP 1.884 –0.559 –3.538** –3.907** I(1)
Coin ≤ 2* 0.0.237 8.666 14.264 18.520**
LnACO2 –0.192 –1.540 –4.119** –4.149** I(1)
LnAS –2.497** –6.107** –30.724*** –46.537*** I(0)/I(1) Coin ≤ 3* 0.154 5.387 3.841** 6.634**
LnFPI –0.098 –1.953 –5.857** –5.765** I(1)
Note: *** Rejected the null hypothesis at 1% level, ** reject the null hypothesis
Note: *** Rejected the null hypothesis at 1% level, ** reject the null hypothesis at 5% significant level, * Acquired null hypothesis rejected, Results are calcu­
at 5% significant level, Results in author calculation by using Eviews 10. lated by the authors using Eviews 10.

6
M.A. Koondhar et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 47 (2021) 101452

Fig. 2. Lag length order selection by Akaike information criterion (AIC), Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SC), and Hannan–Quinn Information Criterion (HQC).

(HQC). The results of AIC, SC, and HQC can be seen in Fig. 2, demon­ between variables. Long-run nexus results show that the coefficient of
strating the appropriate lag order of the detail regressors for the ARDL area sown under cereal crop is 1.057 and is highly significant at 1%
model are (4, 4, 4, 1) designated for auxiliary analysis. From the pre­ level, meaning that green growth of cereal food production can be
vious literature already, several other researchers used the same equa­ increased to 1.057% by rising 1% in area sown under cereal crop. It is
tion with the different variables and selected the lag order [25,27,86]. common phenomena that when area sown under cereal crop decrease
These graphs were illustrated by the author using Eviews 9.0. will significantly decrease the production of crop. The results of this
study alike the study of Zhang and Lu [97], and concluded that the
Long- and Short-Run association increasing area sown can increase the production of maize and soybean.
Besides, results further show that the food production index rejects the
Table 7 shows the results for both long-run and the short-run nexus null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis with the positive
sign of the coefficient at 10% significance level. This indicates that
Table 7 increasing 10% in the food production index will increase the rate of
Long-run and short-run association among desired variables. cereal food production by 0.043%. While the agricultural carbon emis­
Variables Coeff Std Error T-Test P-Value sion has a negative sign of the coefficient, but it does not show signifi­
cance at any level. Therefore we can say there is no long-run effect of
Long-Run Association
C − 2.659 2.389 − 1.112 0.013**
agricultural carbon emissions on cereal food production. Linquist et al.
LnACO2 − 0.120 0.069 − 1.746 0.037 [51] in their study concluded that cereal crops often emit more carbon as
LnAS 1.057 0.036 28.776 0.000*** compared than other crops, and carbon emissions in return affect the
LnFPI 0.043 0.022 1.920 0.077* production. A study in Ghana conducted by Lenhardt et al. [48] found
Short-Run Association that the significant effect of the food production index on cereal pro­
∇LnACO2 − 0.120 0.037 − 3.224 0.006** duction significantly affects the economic development of a country.
∇LnAS 1.057 0.019 54.019 0.000*** Furthermore, Table 7 also shows the results of short-run nexus. It
∇LnFPII 0.043 0.015 2.730 0.017** reveals that agricultural carbon emission has a negative and significant
ECT(–1) − 0.020 0.002 − 8.046 0.000*** effect on cereal food production at the 0.5% significant level. This in­
R2 0.998 Akaike Infor Criteria − 8.641 dicates that cereal food production increases at the rate of 0.120% by
Adjust R2 0.996 Schwarz criterion − 8.033
F-Stat 432.84 Hannan-Quinn criteria − 8.446
decreasing agricultural carbon emissions by 5%. The cereal production
Prob 0.000 Durbin Watson (D.W) 2.216 is affected due to high extensive agricultural carbon emissions, and
agricultural carbon emission is commonly generated from the over­
Note: *** Rejected the null hypothesis at 1% level, ** reject the null hypothesis
utilization of chemical applications, nonrenewable energy consuming
at 5% significant level, Results in author calculation by using Eviews 10.

7
M.A. Koondhar et al.
agro-based technologies [82]. In addition, area sown and food produc­
tion index also rejects the null hypothesis at the significant level of 1%
and 5% significantly. This means that cereal food production increases
by 1.057% and 0.043% due to an increase of 1% area sown and 5% food
production index. Increasing the production of crops the area of land
under cereal crop is the key factor for cereal production owing cereal
food production index [77]. The conclusion of Table 7 disclose that in
both long-run and short-run area sown and food production index
positively affects the cereal food production, In long-run agricultural
carbon emission does not show a significant effect on cereal food pro­
duction but in short-run nexus, a significant effect from agricultural
carbon emission to green growth of cereal food production is seen. For
the whole system, we can say that the entire system is becoming
adjusted at the speed of 0.020% toward the long-run equilibrium ac­
quired by ECT (-1) results. Besides, the R2, adjusted R2, F-state, proba­
bility, and D.W results connote that this model is fit and supports the
above results. Furthermore, some other studies concluded the results in
align the current study [52,57,72,73,80,90]).
Novel dynamic ARDL simulation
Novel dynamic ARDL simulation model was used to validate the
results of area sown, agricultural carbon emission, food production
index, and cereal food production. The results of the dynamic ARDL
model are given in Figs. 3.1, 3.2 and 3.3. The dots in the figure indicate
the average prediction value, the dark blue and light blue lines, reflects
the confidence interval level at 75%, 90%, and 95% respectively.
Fig. 3.1 shows the 10% positive and negative change in area sown
(lnAS) under cereal crop and its effect on cereal food production. The left
side graph indicates that 10% positive change in area sown confirms to
have both long-run and short-run effects on cereal food production; it
also shows that the increase of area sown in the long run will increase
the cereal food production. May it is possible when the area sown in­
crease then it will be easier to adopt modern agricultural technologies
for managing the crop, as well as timely harvesting. Because modern
technologies will make easier to apply the applications of inputs, it re­
duces the labor work, also save the time of sowing and harvesting [38].
While the right side of the graph indicates that a 10% decrease in area
sown will bring change in the long-run and short-run but decrease in
area sown will lessen the cereal food production in the long-run.
Apparent when there is small farming under same crop it will be hard
to adopt modern agricultural technologies, therefore it need to manage
the farm by conventional methods [58].
Figure 3.2 shows the results of 10% positive and negative change in
food production index (lnFPI) influence the cereal food production. The
left side of the figure reflects the 10% positive effect and connotes that
the food production index has long-run and short-run effect on cereal
food production, and indicates that short-run effects are stronger than
Fig. 3.1. ±10% effect of area sown on green growth of cereal food production. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is
referred to the web version of this article.)
8
Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 47 (2021) 101452
long-run. And the right side of the figure reveals short-run and long run
effects of food production index on cereal food production by 10% and
negative shock in food production index, in the regards the long-run
effect is stronger than the short-run.
The above Fig. 3.3 predicts the 10% positive and negative change of
agricultural carbon emission (ACO2) effects on cereal food production.
The left side of the above figure indicates that a 10% positive shock in
agricultural carbon emission significantly affects cereal food production,
but the long-run positive shock of agricultural carbon emission de­
creases cereal food production. The results on the right side are quite
constructive; it indicates that a 10% negative shock of agricultural
economic growth confirms to have a significant effect on cereal food
production in the short-run, while in long-run negative shock of agri­
cultural carbon emission will gradually increase the cereal food pro­
duction. Agricultural greenhouse gases help to climate change, which
directly resulting to lessen the crop production, because agricultural is
the sensitive industry, when the temperature and perception of rainfall
increase or decrease then directly affect the crop yield [98].
Vector error correction VECM model
The cointegration existence offers a pathway to analyze the direc­
tional casual correlation between the desired selected variables.
Therefore, the available results of Table 8 were measured by analyzing
the short-run nexus based on the vector error correction model. Simi­
larly, the ARDL model, as well as the Johanson cointegration equation
were further employed to understand the long-run cointegration corre­
lation among desired variables. Simultaneously, analyzing the Granger
causality short-run by the VECM model might be compulsory for
determining the precise implications of robust policies. The results of
Table 8 show that there is bidirectional Granger causality running from
agricultural carbon emission to cereal food production. In contrast, area
sown to cereal food production reveals the uni-directional causality
running from food production index to green growth of cereal food
production. The Granger causality test based on the VECM gives us a
clear, understandable conclusion that cereal food production is affected
by area sown, agricultural carbon emissions, and food production index.
It is also shown that area sown is decreasing by increasing agricultural
carbon emission. The whole system also shows that the causality cor­
relation in the short-run exists towards cereal food production. In a
recently published study by Ahsan et al. [2], estimated that the long-run
and short-run impact of carbon emission on agriculture. They concluded
that the land area, consumption of fertilizer, and use of energy cause
agricultural production to reduce both in the long-run and short-run
axis. To confirm the stability of the model, some other approaches
were analyzed, as can be seen in Table 9.
To confirm the goodness and fitness of the model, and the consis­
tency of short-run and long-run coefficients, the cumulative sum
M.A. Koondhar et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 47 (2021) 101452

Fig. 3.2. ±10% effect of food production index on green growth of cereal food production. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the
reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Fig. 3.3. ±10% effect of agricultural carbon emission on green growth of cereal food production. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend,
the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Stability tests
Table 8
Vector error correction (VEC) Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald.
Although the above CUSUM and CUSUMQ tests were employed to
Dependent Independent Variables confirm the model’s fitness and goodness, there is still a slight contra­
Variables
∇CFP ∇ACO2 ∇AS ∇FPI diction. Therefore, in this study, the stability tests were employed to
confirm the model’s goodness and fitness (see Table 9). In the normality
∇CFP — 16.324 34.640 2.683
(0.002)*** (0.000)*** (0.612)
test, the F-state was recorded positively with the value of 3.692 and a
∇ACO2 23.346 —— 27.396 0.2.575 non-significant sign of P-Value, meaning that the null hypothesis was
(0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.631) accepted and the alternative hypothesis was rejected. Also, we employed
∇AS 22.904 13.867 —— 1.846 a serial correlation of the langrange multiplier (LM) test, which indicates
(0.000)*** (0.007)*** (2.575)
that there is no serial correlation among variables because the sign of the
∇FPI 18.429 011.395 28.32(0.000) —
(0.001)*** (0.022)** *** P-value was found to be non-significant. Finally, we confirmed the re­
sults with heteroscedasticity and the inverse root of an autoregressive
Note: *** Acquired null hypothesis rejected at 1% level, ** reject the null hy­
(AR) characteristic polynomial graph by VECM, which also connotes
pothesis at 5% significant level, Results in author calculation by using Eviews
that the null hypothesis was accepted and the alternative hypothesis was
10.
rejected, meaning that this model is fit for this study. Chandio et al. [14]
used the same diagnostic tests to confirm the unidirectional nexus be­
(CUSUM) and the cumulative sum of squares (CUSUMSQ) were exam­
tween energy consumption in industries and Pakistan’s economic
ined in Fig. 4. Vividly, the two different plots presented below were
growth. Furthermore, few other authors who used the same technique in
commonly found. In both scenarios, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ collapsed
earlier studies also confirmed the goodness and fitness of the model
between upper and lower bound with a significance level of 5%, which
[42,76].
means that the null hypothesis was rejected rather than accepted. These
results connote that ARDL and the VECM model confirm the long-run
nexus between green growth of cereal food production, area sown,
Impulse response function
and agricultural carbon emission. From the dearth of research, a list of
researchers already diagnosed and confirmed this correlation by
The combined impulse response function (IRF) was analyzed for all
employing CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests for checking the stability as well
the desirable selected variables for this study. Only the data of the last
as goodness and fitness of the model [1,14,32,42,47,71,79,92,93].
decades was used to analyze the impulse response function, because the

9
M.A. Koondhar et al.
Fig. 4. Results of CUSUM and CUSUM square test.
Table 9
Results of stability tests.
Tests F-State
Normality test 3.692
Serial correlation LM test 0.453
Heteroscedasticity test 0.935
AR root graph based on stability test
AR root graph based on
stability test
Note: Analyzed by the author using Eviews.
fluctuation in agricultural carbon emission has a strong footprint for the
last decade as given in Fig. 5, and it also makes it easier to understand
the correlation. The results of IRF connote that there is a positive cor­
relation of ACO2 with other variables. When ACO2 gives a 1st decisive
standard stroke to other variables, the food production index run
gradually, but area sown (AS) and cereal food production shows an
upward and downward trend, indicating a profound effect on the area
sown and cereal food production.
Furthermore, in FPI and CFP, when the other independent variables
give standard deviation strokes to the solitary variables, the FPI and CFP
increases and decreases accordingly. The increasing strokes create a
patterned curve of the area sown under cereal crop. Thus, initially, the
variables show a flat trend at zero levels, but after a few years, they
portray a mixed pattern in which the variables affect each other.
Conclusion
Cereal food is the staple food of Chinese people, but due to fast-
growing urbanization, population pressure and carbon footprints
significantly effects on the production of cereal crops. Therefore, this
study investigates to increase the cereal food production under the
constraints of agricultural carbon emissions and area sown. For this
study, time-series data from 1985 to 2018 was used to investigate the
long-run and short-run nexus between selected variables by estimating
ARDL, VECM, and DYNARDL models. Initially, ADF and PP unit root
tests were employed, and confirmed the stationarity of the variables.
Furthermore, the results of bound testing show that the cointegration
10
Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 47 (2021) 101452
P-Value
0.157
0.645
0.557
Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
correlation is running from agricultural carbon emission, area sown,
food production index towards the green growth of cereal food
production.
Additionally, In the case of a long-run and short-run association, area
sown under cereal crop and food production index confirm to have a
positive and significant effect on green growth of cereal food produc­
tion, meaning that the cereal production increases by increase in area
sown and food production index over time. While in the long-run agri­
cultural carbon emission is not significant, but in the short run, reveals
that decreasing agricultural carbon emission will increase cereal food
production. The results of error correction term ECT(-1) illustrations
speed of adjustment toward the long-run equilibrium over a short period
of time. What’s more, the novel dynamic ARDL simulation model was
also estimated to validate the results, and it disclose that the 10% pos­
itive change in area sown under cereal crop and food production index
will escalate the cereal food production. The outcomes of 10% positive
and negative shocks of agricultural carbon emission are quite interesting
and show clear trend. It reveals increasing agricultural carbon emission
will drop the cereal production, and reducing agricultural carbon
emissions resulting to rise the cereal production. Besides, the VECM
model results demonstrate that the bidirectional Granger causality is
running from area sown, and agricultural carbon emission to cereal food
production, while uni-directional Granger causality is seen from cereal
food production to agricultural carbon emission. Moreover, the long-run
and short-run nexus between the variables were confirmed by the esti­
mation of stability tests.
The robust policy implications based on the above results were
M.A. Koondhar et al.
Fig. 5. Results of an impulse response function.
measured for this study to increase of cereal food production in sus­
tainable environmental manners. This research suggests that the Chi­
nese government should take necessary initiatives to save the arable
land and motivate farmers to increase the area sown under cereal crops
to fulfill the cereal food demand for a huge population. In the short-run,
agricultural carbon emission shows a negative and significant influence
on the green growth of cereal food production. Thus, this study rec­
ommends that for reducing the agricultural carbon footprint from the
environment; it is necessary to adopt renewable energy-consuming
technologies to operate the agricultural machinery. Generally, most of
the carbon emissions from agriculture causes by the over-application of
chemical fertilizer and pesticides [12,29,45]. Therefore, this study
further suggests that the reducing the use of chemical fertilizers and
pesticides in favor of organic fertilizer and the biological control of pests
to increase soil fertility and produce enough food within a healthy
environment; in previous literature, some other authors also calculated
that reducing the use of chemical fertilizer can improve the crop yield
[34,50,95]. Additionally, current study suggest that it is essential to
consider standard of rural education for easy understanding the envi­
ronment effects by using non-renewable energy consumptions, over
applications of chemicals, and management of the agricultural biomass.
For the agricultural biomass need to encourage farmers to utilize the
biomass as bioenergy sources, which will not only reduce the farm cost
but also clean the environment. The use of chemicals in agriculture
causes to reduce the soil fertility, and decrease the crop yield. In addi­
tion, it is necessary to adopted improved biotechnological varieties of
crop concerning resistance of the pests’ attack, which resulting farmers
don’t need to buy chemical sprayers. These initiatives will also preserve
the resources, such as the soil fertility, suitable water for irrigation, and
11
Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 47 (2021) 101452
decrease the degradation of land. Also researchers needs to introduce
high yield, early mature, and temperature tolerance varieties of cereal
crops for increasing the cereal crop production.
Although this study spectacles a pictorial diagram of green growth of
cereal production under constraints of agricultural carbon emission for
China. This study is estimated based on the one objective of the Ph.D.
thesis, therefore irrigation water, chemical spray, chemical fertilizer,
and technological innovation in agriculture were ignored. We know the
importance of these variables, thus, these variables are included in
another working paper. This research is also limited to analyzing ARDL,
VECM, and DYNARDL models, however, in the future using GMM, 3SLS,
and NARDL models need to investigate. This study also gives us future
directions for research to manage the agricultural biomass for producing
bioenergy owing to reducing agricultural carbon emission. This study
also suggests another pathway of research, it will be more useful and
clearly understandable to compare the effect of agricultural carbon
emissions on cereal production, fruits, and livestock. Thus robust
research needs to be done for increasing agricultural production and
decreasing agricultural carbon emissions.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Mansoor Ahmed Koondhar: Writing – original draft, Writing – re­
view & editing, Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Visualization.
Noshaba Aziz: Writing – review & editing. Zhixiong Tan: Funding
acquisition. Shaoxiong Yang: Data curation. Kashif Raza Abbasi:
Visualization. Rong Kong: Supervision.
M.A. Koondhar et al.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgement
This study was financially supported by the College of Economics
and Management, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University from
the project of National Natural Science Foundation of China “NSFC
project No. 71773094”. This study was also financially supported by the
School of Public Policy and Administration, Chongqing University,
China from the project of the Fundamental Research Funds for the
Centeral Universities of Chongqing University “Projects No.
2021CDJSKJC05 & 2021CDSKXYGG013”.
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