Pulses International Article New My Article

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MULTIDISCIPLINARY ADVANCED RESEARCH TRENDS
ISSN : 2349-7408
VOLUME IV, ISSUE 1(3) JANUARY, 2017
THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF PULSES AND ITS

IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY IN INDIA
K. SOLMON RAJU PAUL

Assistant Research Officer, CCS
Ch. SATISH KUMAR, B. SARATH BABU

PG Student, Department of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural College, ANGRAU, Bapatla.
ABSTRACT
Pulses are popularly known as “Poor man’s meat” & are important sources of
proteins, vitamins and minerals known as grain legume and “rich man’s vegetable”,
that contribute significantly to the nutritional security of the country. India is the
largest producer, consumer and also the largest importer of pulses in the world. The
total production of pulses in India was 18.5 million tons during the year 2014-15.
The world total production of pulses is around 72 MT in the year 2014-15. India has
an average productivity of 911kg/ha for the year 2014-15. Food production is the
base for the food security. Food security issues depend on several factors such as
growth trends in population, per capita income, urbanization, changes in taste in the
era of globalization and future growth of the bottom-most section of the population.
Food security is defined as an economic access to food along with food production
and food availability. Food security is a situation in which both food supply and
effective demand are sufficient to cover nutritional requirements. Indicators of food
security are household food availability, household food consumption and
nutritional status. The per capita consumption of the pulses has been declining
regardless of fall in the per capita demand, it is evident that, the total demand for
pulses (feed, seed, industrial use and waste). Empirical study on the dynamics of the
supply and demand of the pulses is very crucial from the point of view of food
security and often services insight to policy planners regarding the existing state of
affairs and future directions of the food self-sufficiency. The study had estimated
compound growth rates of area, production and productivity of india during 1990-
91 to 2014-15 and also estimated the demand and supply of pulses and had carried
out the projection for pulse under for different scenarios of economic growth rates
(6,7,8 and 9 per cent) for years 2019-20 to 2025-26. The study estimated that, the
Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) for total pulses with respect to area,
production & productivity in India during 1990-2015 was found to be 0.09%, 0.77%
& 0.96% respectively. The results had suggested that the demand for pulses will be
met with surplus under scenario of six and seven per cent of economic growth.
However, the pulses grain shortest in supply of demand in the coming years under
third and fourth scenarios (8 and 9 percent of economic growth rates) of the study.
There-fore, the policies that can help in maintaining the growth in the long-run are
needed that will be able to keep a balance between domestic production and demand
for pulses.
Key words: Pulses Demand, Supply, Food Security and Demand-Supply gaps.
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Introduction
The growth of Indian agriculture over last few decades has helped the country
in achieving food security at National level. The next big challenge faced by the
country in general and Indian agriculture in particular is to sustain this growth and
achieve nutritional security as well. Pulses for being environment friendly, major
source of protein and complementing cereals both in production and consumption will
have a vital role to play under the circumstances. In the production process, pulses
improve soil fertility, requires less water than cereals. On the consumption side, pulses
are relatively cheaper source of protein. (Joshi and Saxena 2002). Pulses will form a
major source of protein for a huge section of India particularly for the poor, backward
classes and most of the traditionally vegetarian population (Reddy, 2004). India is the
largest producer and consumer of pulses in the world economy of pulses farming. The
major pulse crops grown in India are chickpea, pigenopea, urdbean, mungbean,
lathyrus, mothbean, horsegram, lentil and peas. The common pulses grown in Rabi
season are chickpea, lentil, field pea, lathyrus (Khesari) and rajmash. The major
pulses cultivated during Kharif season are arhar, moong and urd (black gram). Pulses
accounted for 14.33 percent of gross cropped area of the country during 1952-53 and
with fluctuations in between the years; it remained to around 12 per cent during 2007-
08. The area under pulses cultivation decreased by 3.95 per cent and production
increased by 17.67 per cent during 1962-63 and 2007-08. This reflects more or less
stagnant conditions of pulses production. There is a demand and supply gap in pulses,
and depending on the domestic short fall in pulses production, India’s net imports of
pulses have ranged from 1 to 3 million tonnes during 2001-02 to 200809. The per
capita availability of pulses declined from 61 grams in 1951 to 36 grams in 2007. To
enhance adoption of improved technology in pulses farming, various programmes of
government like National Pulses Development Project (NPDP), Technology Mission
for Oilseeds and Pulses (TMOP), Integrated Scheme of Oilseeds, Pulses, Oil palm
and Maize (ISOPOM) are in operation from time to time. Considering the importance
of pulses in food security, the National Food Security Mission (NFSM) was launched
during the eleventh Five-year plan targeting important food grain crops rice, wheat
and pulses. In recent reports it has been found that India has achieved a record pulses
production of 18.45 million tonnes (MT) in the 2012-13 as compared with 17.09 MT
in 2011-12. In a nation, continuous growth in demand over time aggravates food
problems and hence it is essential to assess its impact on future prospects of demand-
supply balance. Analysis of food consumption patterns and how they might respond
to changes in income, population, prices, and other factors is essential to formulate
remedial policy measures. In order to tackle this issue of food security, researchers
have made use of different approaches to estimate demand and supply of agricultural
products. These estimations also enable nations to assess their future demand and
supply and accordingly formulate appropriate longterm policies. This paper aims at
forecasting demand and supply of pulses for the period 2019-20 to 2025-26.
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Materials and Methodology

The study primarily based on the secondary data collected from published
sources like Directorate of Economics and Statistics, various annual reports of All
India Coordinated Research Projects of concerned crops and Expert committee on
pulses. The following analytical techniques are used to estimate the demand and
supply of pulses in India. Growth rates of area, production and productivity of pulses
over the period from 1950-51 to 2014-15.
Analytical Techniques:
Compound growth rate (CAGR)
In order to examine the growth of area, production and productivity of pulses
in India compound growth rates has been calculated. Compound growth rate (C.G.R.)
was calculated by using the regression equation in the exponential form as:
Yt = ABt
Where,
Yt = Production pulses for the year t
A = Intercept indicating Y in the base period (t = 0)
B = (1 + r)
r = Compound growth rate per annum
t = Time period
The model was linearized by means of logarithmic transformation, which was

given as
ln Yt = ln A + t (ln B)
The slope coefficient of B measures the relative changes in Y for a given

absolute change in the value of explanatory variable in period t. Therefore, the
compound growth was estimated finally by using the following equation; ln B = ln
(1 + r)
r = [antilog (ln B) -1]
CGR = [antilog (ln B) -1] ×100 or [r×100]
Projections for supply of pulses:

The supply projections for pulses were estimated by analyzing trend equation
(the linear regression form). Projections for supply of pulses for year 2019-20,
202021, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26 have been calculated in
the linear regression form, whose algebraic form is as follows: y = a + bt
Where, y = Production of pulses
a = Constant term b = Regression
coefficient of time t = Indicates
the time (years)
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Projections for demand of pulses

The total domestic demand projections for pulses were arrived at by adding
up the direct demand (human demand) and the indirect demand (seed, feed industrial
use and waste). The expenditure elasticities used in the projection model were taken
primarily from past studies (Kumar et. al. 2009; Srivastava et. al, 2013).
The demand Projections for the pulses were obtained through; Dt

= d0 × Nt (1 + y × e) t
Where,
Dt = The aggregate demand of a commodity in year t
d0 = The per capita consumption of the commodity in the base year
Nt = The projected population in year t y = Growth in per
capita income e = the expenditure elasticity of demand for
the commodity.
The household food demand is primarily driven by growth in population,

income and change in income distribution (Kumar, 1997). The total domestic demand
projections for pulses were arrived at by adding up the direct demand (human
demand) and the indirect demand (seed, feed industrial use and waste).
Conventionally, the indirect demand was assumed to be 12.5 per cent of the total food
grains production- an assumption which has been used since 1950‘s for all official
estimates. Lately, (Kumar et al. 2007, 2009) have computed the shares of seed, feed,
waste and other uses as 9.5 per cent of total production of rice, 13.5 per cent of wheat,
41 per cent of coarse cereals, and 16.85 per cent of pulses. Theses parameters were
used in the present study, and the seed, feed, industrial use and waste allowances were
estimated. Although there are no authentic estimates available for “home away
demand”, based on some guess estimates (Kumar et. al, 2009) had assumed 5 per cent
of total direct demand as “home away demand”. Using the same parameters, the total
“home away demand” for pulses was estimated.
Income Growth:
Income growth is another important factor in demand projections. Growth
rate in per capita income was obtained by subtracting population growth rate from
income growth rate and was used in projections (Kumar et. al, 2009). GDP growth
rate in 2013 was 7.5 per cent and population growth rate was1.2 per cent, resulting in
a net growth of 6.3 per cent. Based on recent trends, it was assumed that the Indian
economy would grow at a much higher growth trajectory and population growth rate
would also decline. So, in the simulation present demand projections were made using
four scenarios with income growth rates in GDP, viz. 6, 7, 8 and 9 per cent.
Results and discussion:
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Area, production and productivity of pulse in india

The status of area, production and productivity of pulses in india over the
years i.e. 1949-50 to 2014-2015 is presented in Annexure-I.
The area, production and productivity of pulses have been hovering in the
same range over the years but have shown some sign of progress during the last
decade the area under pulses has increased from 22.00 M.ha. in 2000-01 to 23.55
M.ha. registering an increase of 1.35 M.ha. the yield has also increased by about 16
per cent during the last decade. This has resulted mainly due to focused efforts of the
government through various initiatives like NFSM.
From the below Table 1, Area, production and productivity of pulses

showed progressive growth during the entire study period i.e. 1949-50 to 2014-15,
but their preference was rather poor and insignificant as compared to other food
crops and we can observe that during the period of 2007-08 to 2014-15 the area of
pulses has registered a negative growth.
Table 1: Compound Growth Rate of Area, production and productivity.

Compound Growth Rate (CGR)
1949-50 to 1949-1950 to 1966-67 to 2007-08 to
2014-15 1965-66 2006-07 2014-15
Area(in 000 ha) 0.0024 0.0079 0.0003 -0.0005
Production(000 ton) 0.0116 0.0129 0.0119 0.0217
Productivity (in kg/ha) 0.0092 0.0052 0.0116 0.0220
Source: Author’s calculation
Total area of pulses in India from 1949-50 to 2014-15

30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Years
Figure 1: Total area pulses in india from 1949-50 to 2014-15.
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We can observe from the Figure 1, the total pulse growing area is not much
changed but some extent of land is increased from 1949-50 to 2014-15.
Total production of pulses in India from 1949-50 to 2014-15
Years
Figure 2: Total production of pulses in india from 1949-50 to 2014-15.
We have depicted from the Figure 2, increase in total pulse production from
1949-50 to 2014-15. Because of the releasing of good varieties and management
practices.
Total productivity pulses in India from 1949-50 to 2014-15
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Years
Figure 3: Total productivity of pulses in india from 1949-50 to 2014-15.
We can see from the Figure 3; the total pulse productivity is also increasing
from 1949-50 to 2014-15. The productivity increase because of the suitable climatic
conditions for growing the pulse in india.
Major pulse producing states in India in 2014-15

In India major pulse producing state are presented in Table 2. From the table
2; we can conclude that, in the total pulse production and in area, Rajasthan stands
first position followed by Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. In productivity Andhra
Pradesh occupies first position followed by Jharkhand and Tamil nadu. In Andhra
Pradesh the climate is suitable for pulses and the farmer follows the good management
practices and releasing of good verities for better productivity.
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Table 2: Area, Production and Productivity in major Pulse Producing States

during 2014-15.
State Production Per cent share Area Per cent Yield
in india (M.ha) share in india (kg/ha)
Rajasthan 95.33 39.63 202.56 38.51 471
Madhya Pradesh 50.8 21.12 104.2 19.81 488
Maharashtra 20.5 8.52 66.9 12.72 306
Karnataka 16.6 6.90 49.2 9.35 337
Tamil nadu 13.1 5.45 19.4 3.69 675
Odisha 12.44 5.17 32.28 6.14 387
Jharkhand 12.06 5.01 14.9 2.83 805
Gujarat 10.7 4.45 16 3.04 669
Chhattisgarh 4.94 2.05 15.64 2.97 316
Andhra Pradesh 4.1 1.70 4.9 0.93 836
Total 240.57 100 525.98 100
Source : www.indiastat.com
Table 3: Shares of Different Pulse Crops in total Pulse Production of India

during 2014-15.
Crop Production (MT) Share %
Bengal gram 7.33 50.10
Lentil 1.04 7.07
Mung Bean 1.50 10.27
Pegion pea 2.81 19.18
Urd Bean 1.96 13.38
14.636 100
Source: www.indiastat.com
Urd Bean,
13.38 Per cent share
Pegion
pea, 19.18
Bengal
gram,
50.10
Mung
Bean,
10.27
lentil, 7.07
Figure 4: Share of major pulse in India
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Per Capita Availability of Pulses in India
The net availability of pulses in India has been depicted in Table 4. Pulses are
an important component of diet for being rich vegetarian source of protein and making
diet nutritionally balanced. In spite of this, the net per capita availability of pulses has
come down over years from 60.7 grams per day per person in 1951 to 47.2 grams per
day per person in 2014. Owning to continuous increase in population and stagnant
production of pulses, the availability of pulses has come down since independence.
This indicates that the growth in production and availability of pulses in not in pace
with the growth in population of the country. The availability of pulses need to
increase to make them available as per the recommendations of ICMR.
Table 4: Per capita net availability gram per day from 1951 to 2014.
Per Capita Net Per Capita Net
Years Availability Per Day Years Availability Per
(in gram) Day (in gram)
1951 60.7 1956 70.3
1952 59.1 1957 71.8
1953 62.7 1958 58.5
1954 69.7 1959 74.9
1955 71.1 1960 65.5
Per Capita Net Per Capita Net
Years Availability Per Day Years Availability Per
(in gram) Day (in gram)
1961 69.0 1990 41.1
1962 62.0 1991 41.6
1963 59.8 1992 34.3
1964 51.0 1993 36.2
1965 61.6 1994 37.2
1966 48.2 1995 37.8
1967 39.6 1996 32.7
1968 56.1 1997 37.1
1969 47.3 1998 32.8
1970 51.9 1999 36.5
1971 51.2 2000 31.8
1972 47.0 2001 30.0
1973 41.1 2002 35.4
1974 40.8 2003 29.1
1975 39.7 2004 35.8
1976 50.5 2005 31.5
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1977 43.3 2006 32.5

1978 45.5 2007 35.5
1979 44.7 2008 41.8
1980 30.9 2009 37.0
1981 37.5 2010 35.4
1982 39.2 2011 43.0
1983 39.5 2012 41.7
1984 41.9 2013 43.3
1985 38.4 2014 47.2
1986 43.9
1987 36.4
1988 36.7
1989 41.9
Source:www.indiastat.com
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Years
Figure 5: Per capita net availability of pulses from 1951 to 2014.
Table 5: Growth of pulses vis-a-vis food grain from 1950-51 to 2014-15.
Area (M.ha.)
1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2010-11 2014-15
Food grains 97.321 115.641 124.316 126.667 127.835 121.048 126.671 124.299
Index 100 118.82 126.33 128.22 129.14 123.83 128.48 126.60
Pulses 19.091 23.563 22.534 22.457 24.662 20.348 26.407 23.552
Index 100 123.42 119.06 118.72 128.53 111.04 140.82 130.01
Production (MT)
Food grains 50.825 82.018 108.422 129.588 176.39 196.814 244.482 252.023
Index 100 161.37 193.57 213.09 249.20 260.78 285.00 288.09
Pulses 8.411 12.704 11.818 10.627 14.265 11.076 18.24 17.152
Index 100 151.04 144.07 133.99 168.22 145.87 210.55 204.58
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Productivity (kg/ha)
Food grains 522 710 872 1023 1380 1626 1930 2028
Index 100 136.02 158.83 176.15 211.05 228.87 247.57 252.65
Pulses 441 539 524 473 578 544 691 728
Index 100 122.22 119.44 109.71 131.91 126.02 153.04 158.40
Source: www.indiastat.com and author’s calculations
From the table 5, we can conclude that, the total area, production and
productivity of food grains growth is more than the pulses.
Projection of pulses demand of India and different components of demand for

pulses
India’s predominance of food grains in the agricultural consumption and
production pattern had changed (Amarasinghe et. al., 2007). Sustained economic
growth, increasing population and changing lifestyles had caused significant changes
in Indian food basket, away from staple food grains towards high value horticultural
and animal products (Kumar et al., 2009 and Mittal, 2007). While per capita
consumption of food grains had declined, their total consumption has increased due
to increasing population. Also, changes in the dietary pattern towards animal products
have led to an increased demand of food grains as animal feed.
Nonetheless, food grains particularly rice and wheat, continue to be the main
pillars of India’s food security. The success of the Green Revolution in India brought
tremendous increase in food production. The past few decades had witnessed
significant amount of technological changes causing tremendous increase on the
production of various crops, particularly cereal crops. Thus, on the supply side,
stimulated by the public investment in irrigation and rural infrastructure and rapid
spread of high-yielding varieties of rice and wheat, together with improved crop
production practices, India had achieved an impressive growth in food grains (Kumar
et al., 2004 and Kumar and Mittal, 2006).
Demand for pulses:

The future demand for pulses in India will not only come from increases in
population but will also originate from the increase in demand for animal feed.
According to an estimate, the share of calorie supplies of food grains, non-grain crops
and animal products will change from 63 per cent, 29 per cent and 8 per cent in 2000
to 48 per cent, 36 per cent and 16 per cent in 2050, respectively in India (Amarasinghe
et. al., 2007).
In India, the demand for grains for animals feed increased by 9 per cent per
annum in 1990s against one per cent rise in demand for food (Rosegrant et. al., 1995).
As a result, the per capita monthly food grain demand in India is projected to increase
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from 16.7 to 19.9 kg over the next 50 years (Amarasinghe et. al., 2007). India’s
current population is about 1.21 billion; it is expected to increase to 1.65 billion by
2050 i.e. an increase of 40 per cent. As per estimates, India would need to increase its
food grain production from current 251million tonnes to 276 million tonnes by 2021
and to more than 450 million tonnes by 2050 (Kang, 2011).
Total demand
for pulsess
Direct demand Indirct Demand
Seed, feed,
House hold Home away
wastage and
demand for demand for
Industrial
pulse food grains
usage
Figure 6: Shows component of total demand for pulses.
Expenditure elasticity
Food, being a necessary item, exhibits inelastic demand. However, within the
food basket, different items respond differently with change in income of households.
The expenditure elasticity of food items was higher for rural households than their
urban counterparts. The expenditure elasticity of cereals was positive but lowest
among the food commodities in all-India in both rural and urban India indicating that
increase in income of households will lead to only a marginal increase in cereal
consumption (Table 6). On the other hand, the expenditure elasticities for high value
food commodities such as milk and milk products (MMP), non-vegetarian products
(Egg/fish/meat) and fruits was comparatively higher than others. Thus, high value
food items are relatively income elastic and with increase in income (expenditure),
demand for these commodities will be higher than staple foods. This indicates the
fact that food demand will be comparatively higher in rural areas with per unit rise in
income.
Table 6: Expenditure elasticity of food commodities (2004-05).

Food group All-India Rural Urban
Cereals b 0.24 0.15 0.15
Rice a 0.04 0.064 0.016
Wheat a -0.068 -0.056 -0.08
Coarse cereals a -0.158 -0.151 -0.165
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Pulses b 0.51 0.56 0.46

Edible oils b 0.53 0.54 0.52
Milk liquid b 0.91 1.00 0.82
Sugar b 0.835 0.83 0.84
Vegetables b 0.44 0.43 0.045
Fruits b 1.21 1.31 1.09
Source: a Kumar et al., 2009; b Srivastava et al., 2013.
Population growth
According to Registrar -General of Census, Government of India (2011), the
total population of the country is likely to increase from 1201.9 million in 2011 to
1326 million in 2020 and further to1399.84 million in 2026 (Table 7).
Table 7: Projected population from 2020–26.

Year 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Total
population 1326.16 1339.74 1352.7 1365.3 1377.44 1388.99 1399.84
(Million)
Source: India, Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, 2006.
Table 8: Projected population growth rate as of March 1, 2001–2026

Population growth during 2001–05 2006–10 2011–15 2016–20 2021–25
Growth rate (% per year) 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9
Source: India, Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, 2006.
Note: Although population projections are given as on March 1st, we have assumed them as
mid-year projections.
Income growth
Income growth is another important factor in demand projections. Growth
rate in per capita income was obtained by subtracting population growth rate from
growth rate of GDP and were used in projections (Kumar et al., 2009). GDP growth
rate in 2013 was 7.5 per cent and population growth rate of 1.2 per cent, owing to
growth of 6.3 per cent.
Demand projection of pulses

Based on recent trends, it was assumed that the Indian economy would grow
at a much higher growth trajectory and population growth rate would also decline.
So, in the simulation present demand projections were made using four scenarios
with income growth rates in GDP, viz. 6, 7, 8 and 9 per cent.
Table 9: Projected demand for pulses in india in different scenarios of

economic growth (6%,7%,8% and 9% and base year is 2009-10)
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2009- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2024- 2025-

10 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Scenario I (6% economic growth)
Direct House hold

demand 9.96 16.91 17.07 17.23 17.38 17.53 17.67 17.75
Indirect demand 2.47 3.55 3.59 3.63 3.67 3.71 3.75 3.79
Home away demand of
pules 0.50 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.89
Total indirect demand 2.97 4.40 4.44 4.49 4.54 4.59 4.63 4.68
Total domestic demand 12.93 21.31 21.51 21.72 21.92 22.12 22.30 22.43
Scenario II (7% economic growth)
Direct House hold

demand 9.96 17.57 17.75 17.93 18.09 18.25 18.41 18.55
Indirect demand 2.47 3.55 3.59 3.63 3.67 3.71 3.75 3.79
Home away demand of
pules 0.50 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93
Scenario III (8% economic growth)
Direct House hold

demand 9.96 17.74 17.91 18.07 18.25 18.41 18.55 18.67
Indirect demand 2.47 3.55 3.59 3.63 3.67 3.71 3.75 3.79
Home away demand of
pules 0.50 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.93
Scenario IV (9% economic growth)
Direct House hold

demand 9.96 18.57 18.75 18.93 19.09 19.25 19.41 19.55
Indirect demand 2.47 3.55 3.59 3.63 3.67 3.71 3.75 3.79
Home away demand of
pules 0.50 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98
Note: Assumption: Seed, feed, wastage and industrial uses were taken as 16.85 per cent of pulses
production (Kumar et al, 2007). Home away demand was assumed to be 5 per cent share in total
household demand pulses (Kumar et al., 2009).
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Direct demand
The household food demand is primarily driven by growth in population,
income and change in income distribution (Kumar, 1997). The total domestic demand
projections for pulses were arrived at by adding up the direct demand (human
demand) and the indirect demand (seed, feed, industrial use and waste).
There has been significant decline in the consumption of pulses (as direct
demand) in the past. During 1993-94 to 2011-12, monthly per capita consumption of
pulses declined considerably from 0.76 kg to 0.63 kg in rural India and from 0.86 kg
to 0.72 kg in urban India.
The direct household demand for pulses was projected to be increased to as

16.91 MT in 2019-20, 17.07 MT in 2020- 21, 17.23 MT in 2021 -22, 17.38 MT in
2022-23, 17.53 MT in 2023-24, 17.67 MT in 2024-25 and 17.75 MT in 2025-26, if
economy grows at 6 per cent (Table 9). In the second scenario of study if economy
grows at 7 per cent, projections for the same were as 17.57 MT in 2019-20, 17.75 MT
in 2020-21, 17.95 MT in 2021- 22, 18.09 MT in 2022-23, 18.25 MT in 2023-24, 18.41
MT in 2024-25 and 18.55 MT in 2025-26 (Table 9).
Similarly, in third scenario of 8 per cent of economic growth, projections

made for direct household demand were as 17.74 MT in 2019-20, 17.91 MT in
2020-21, 18.07 MT in 2021-22, 18.25 MT in 2022- 23, 18.41 MT in 2023-24, 18.55
MT in 2024-25 and 18.67 MT in 2025-26 (Table 9).Likewise, in the fourth scenario
of 9 per cent economic growth, projections made were as 18.57 MT in 2019-20,
18.75 MT in 2020-21, 18.93 MT in 2021-22, 19.09 MT in 2022-23, 19.25 MT in
2023-24, 19.41 MT in 2024-25 and 19.55 MT in 2025-26 (Table 9 )
Indirect demand
Conventionally, the indirect demand was assumed to be 12.5 per cent of the
total food grains production- an assumption been used since 1950‘s for all official
estimates. Lately, Kumar et al. (2007, 2009) have computed the shares of seed, feed,
waste and other uses as 16.85 per cent of pulses. This parameter was used in the
present study, and the seed, feed, industrial use and waste allowances had been
projected as 3.55 MT in 2019, 3.59 MT in 2020-21, 3.63 MT in 2021-22, 3.67mt in
2022-23, 3.71 MT in 2023-24, 3.75 MT in 2024-25 and 3.79 MT in 2025-26, in all
the scenarios of economic growth i.e. 6,7,8 and 9 per cent. This demand constitutes
about 16.7 per cent of total domestic demand of pulses and about 16.8 per cent of
pulse production in the country.
With the stupendous rise in income (increase in employment opportunities

specifically for women and per capita income), urbanization (fast growing urban
population) and sedentary lifestyles are causing significant rise in home away demand
‘for food grains. Although, there are of authentic estimates available for ‘home away
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demand ‘, based on some guesstimates, (Kumar et. al., 2009) had assumes 5 per cent
of total direct demand as home away demand ‘. Using the same parameters, the total
home away demand ‘for pulses was projected as 0.76 MT in 2019-20, 0.77 MT in
2020-21, 0.77 MT in 2021-22, 0.78 MT in 2022-23, 0.79 MT in 2023-24, 0.79 MT in
2024-25 and 0.80 MT in 2025-26 if economy grows at 6 per cent (Table 9).
In the second scenario of study, if economy grows at 7 per cent projections

for the same were as 0.80 MT in 2019-20, 0.80 MT in 2020-21, 0.81 MT in 2021-22,
0.82 MT in 2022-23, 0.83 MT in 2023-24, 0.83 MT in 2024-25 and 0.84 MT in
202526 (Table 9). Similarly, in third scenario of 8 per cent of economic growth
projections made were as 0.84 MT in 2019-20, 0.85 MT in 2020-21, 0.85 MT in 2021-
22, 0.86 MT in 2022-23, 0.87 MT in 2023-24, 0.88 MT in 2024-25 and 0.88mt in
2025-26 (Table 9). Likewise, in the fourth scenario of 9 per cent economic growth,
projections made were as 0.88 MT in 2019-20, 0.89 MT in 2020-21, 0.90 MT in 2021-
22, 0.90 MT in 2022-23, 0.91 MT in 2023-24, 0.92 MT in 2024-25 and 0.93 MT in
2025-26 (Table 9)
Total domestic demand for pulses:

The total domestic pulses demand projections which were estimated as sum
of total direct and total indirect demand of pulses. The projections for the total
domestic pulses demand for the first scenario, if economy grows at 6 per cent were as
19.48 MT in 2019-20, 19.68 MT in 202021, 19.88 MT in 2021-22, 20.07 MT in 2022-
23, 20.25 MT in 2023-24, 20.43 MT in 2024-25 and 20.60 MT in 2025-26
(Table 10).
In the second scenario, if economy grows at 7 per cent, projections for the
same were as 20.28 MT in 2019-20, 20.49 MT in 2020-21, 20.79 MT in 2021-22,
20.90 MT in 2022-23, 21.09 MT in 2023-24, 21.28 MT in 2024-25 and 21.45 MT in
2025-26 (Table 10).Similarly, in third scenario of 8 per cent of economic growth,
projections made were as 21.12 MT in 2019-20, 21.34 MT in 2020-21, 21.56 MT in
2021-22, 21.76 MT in 2022-23, 21.97 MT in 2023-24, 22.16 MT in 2024-25 and
22.34 MT in 2025-26 (Table 9).Likewise in the fourth scenario of 9 per cent economic
growth, projections made were as 22.00 MT in 2019-20, 22.23 MT in 2020-21, 22.45
MT in 2021-22, 22.67 MT in 2022-23, 22.88 MT in 2023-24, 23.08 MT in 2024-25
and 23.27 MT in 2025-26 (Table 10).
Table 10: Total Demand of pulses in India in 2025-26 (Million tonnes).

Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV
(6% economic (7% economic (8% economic (9% economic
growth) growth) growth) growth)
22.35 23.19 23.35 24.27
Source: Authors calculations
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Supply of pulses:
Pulses indicate a sluggish growth or even decline in output. The government
policy in terms of production, market support and distribution had also impacted
substantially on supply of and demand for various pulses. Similarly, the assured
procurement, support price and public distribution has also impacted substantially on
supply of and demand for various cereals. The supply projections for pulses were
estimated by analyzing trend equation (the linear regression form).
India has achieved an impressive growth in pulse production. Production of

pulses has increased to stupendous 17.2 million tonnes (Annexure-I) in 2014-15. The
growth rate of pulses (production) in India from1950-1951 to 2014-2015 was 1.15 per
cent. Per capita annual production of pulses decreased from 18.91 kg during
early1970s to 14.37 kg by mid-1990s, even though country’s population increased
more than 50 per cent during this period (Economic Survey, 2007). After mid1990s,
per capita pulse production started declining due to deceleration in the total factor
productivity growth, with growth rate of -0.70 per cent during 1994-95 to 2003-04
(Table 11).
So, pulse production in India observed varying growth rates with time. As it
is a matter of concern for Indian food-security. This changing scenario of
consumption and production will have a significant influence on the demand and
supply prospects of food (Kumar et al., 2009). The production (supply) projections
for pulses in India were as 21.08mt in 2019-20, 21.32 MT in 2020-21, 21.56 MT in
2021-22, 21.80 MT in 2022-23 and 22.04 MT in 2023-24, 22.28 MT in 2024-25
and22.52mt in 2025-26 (Table 11)
Table 11: Projections for Supply (Production) of pulses in India (2019-20 to

2025-26) (Million tonnes).
Year 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26
Supply 21.08 21.32 21.56 21.8 22.04 22.28 22.52
Source: Author’s calculations
Table 12: Availability of pulses in India

Year Production Exports Imports Total supply Imports as %
MT MT MT MT of total supply
1980-81 10.63 0.001 0.17 10.80 1.60
1981-82 11.51 0.001 0.13 11.64 1.10
1982-83 11.86 0.002 0.10 11.96 0.86
1983-84 12.89 0.006 0.23 13.12 1.74
1984-85 11.96 0.004 0.24 12.20 1.93
1985-86 13.36 0.001 0.43 13.79 3.13
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1986-87 11.71 0.005 0.62 12.33 5.07

1987-88 11.04 0.009 0.61 11.65 5.26
1988-89 13.85 0.010 0.76 14.60 5.17
1989-90 12.86 0.013 0.47 13.33 3.53
1990-91 14.27 0.015 1.27 15.54 8.20
1991-92 12.01 0.026 0.31 12.33 2.54
1992-93 12.81 0.034 0.38 13.20 2.90
1993-94 13.30 0.044 0.63 13.93 4.51
1994-95 14.04 0.051 0.55 14.59 3.80
1995-96 12.31 0.061 0.49 12.80 3.80
1996-97 14.24 0.055 0.65 14.90 4.39
1997-98 12.98 0.171 1.01 13.99 7.21
Year Production Exports Imports Total supply Imports as %
MT MT MT MT of total supply
1998-99 12.16 0.104 0.56 12.73 4.43
1999-00 13.42 0.192 0.25 13.67 1.85
2000-01 11.08 0.244 0.35 11.43 3.07
2001-02 13.37 0.162 2.23 15.60 14.31
2002-03 11.13 0.151 2.00 13.12 15.21
2003-04 14.91 0.154 1.72 16.63 10.36
2004-05 13.13 0.271 1.34 14.47 9.26
2005-06 13.38 0.447 1.70 15.08 11.25
2006-07 13.38 0.251 2.27 15.65 14.51
2007-08 14.76 0.164 2.84 17.60 16.11
2008-09 14.57 0.136 2.48 17.05 14.55
2009-10 14.66 0.100 3.51 18.17 19.31
2010-11 18.24 0.208 2.70 20.94 12.89
2011-12 17.09 0.174 3.36 20.45 16.45
2012-13 18.34 0.202 1.54 19.89 7.76
2013-14 19.25 0.344 3.18 22.43 14.16
1999-00 13.42 0.192 0.25 13.67 1.85
2013-14 19.25 0.344 3.18 22.43 14.16
Change 5.83 0.151 2.92 8.91 12.31
% Change 65.48 1.698 32.82 100.00
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Production MT Exports MT Imports MT Total supply MT
Figure 7: availability of pulses in India
The total supply of pulses in India have increased from 13.67 MT to 22.43
MT during the last 15 i.e. between 1999-2000 and 2013-14 (Table 12). Though, the
production during the same period has increased by 5.83 MT i.e. from 13.42 MT in
1999-2000 to 19.25 MT in 2013-14. Hence, the imports also have played a vital role
in the total supply of pulses in the country. It is assumed that the production, imports
and exports of the pulses contribute to its total supply. The import has increased from
0.25 MT in 1999-2000 to 3.18 MT in 2013-14 and are responsible for increase in total
supply of pulses which increased from 1.85 per cent to 14.16 per cent of total supply
during the same period. The import of pulses during 1990s was less than 1 MT except
for the year 1990-91 and 1997-98 where it was marginally higher at 1.27 and 1.01
MT. But, during the last 15 years the imports have consistently been in the range of 2
MT or above and have touched the highest mark of 3.51 MT in 2009-10. The table
also reveals that out of the increase of 8.91 MT in the total supply of pulses during
the last 15 years, 2.92 MT has been the contribution of imports. This reveals that
mainly imports are responsible for increase in supply which constitutes more than 32
per cent of increase in total supply. On the contrary, increase in domestic production
contributes is 65 per cent for the total increase in supply of pulses.
Demand-Supply gaps
There are many studies on supply-demand mismatch of food commodities
with strikingly diverse conclusions for food security outlook in India (Kumar et al.,
1995; Bhalla et al., 1999; Chand, 2007; Mittal, 2006 and Amarasinghe et al., 2007).
Empirical study on the dynamics of supply and demand of food grains is indeed
valuable for the country like India from the point of view of food security, and often
serves insights to policy planners regarding the existing state of affairs and future
directions of food self-sufficiency. The study had estimated the demand and supply
of pulses and carried out the projections under four different scenarios of economic
234
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growth rates (6, 7, 8 and 9 per cent). The results had suggested that the pulses grains
would be short in supply of demand in the coming years under third and fourth
scenarios (8 and 9 per cent economic growth rates) of the study. Therefore, the
policies that can help in maintaining the growth in the long-run are needed that will
be able to keep a balance between domestic production and demand for pulses. A
comparison of supply-demand gap of pulses under different economic growth
scenarios (6, 7, 8 and 9 per cent) in India from 2019-20 to 2025-26 (Table 12) revealed
that the surplus in supply and demand of pulses declines as economy advances at
much higher growth rates. In all scenarios observed the demand is more than supply
of pulses. Therefore, the policies that can help in maintaining the growth in the
longrun are needed that will be able to keep a balance between domestic production
and demand for pulses. A comparison of supply-demand gap of pulses under different
economic growth scenarios (6, 7, 8 and 9 per cent) in India from 2019-20 to 2025-26
revealed that the demand and supply and of pulses declines as economy advances at
much higher growth rates. In short the need of an hour is to switch from stressed
agriculture to specialized agriculture. Prerequisite for which is knowledge based
agriculture, innovations and policies which could providing local solutions by global
experiences. Coming out of the technological fatigue can work miracles for Indian
agriculture in this changing scenario. If not, it could create serious imbalances
between domestic production and demand. But if growth rate in domestic production
of pulses fails to rise to the required level, it would eventually lead to increased
dependence on import of pulses for meeting domestic demand (Chand, 2009).
Table 13: Demand and supply of pulses from 2007-08 to 2014-15

Year Demand Supply Gap
2007-08 16.77 14.76 2.01
2008-09 17.51 14.57 2.94
2009-10 18.29 14.66 3.63
2010-11 19.08 18.24 0.84
2011-12 19.91 17.69 2.22
2012-13 20.90 18.34 2.56
2013-14 21.71 19.00 2.71
2014-15 22.35 17.2 5.15
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Demand and supply of pulses in india
25
20
15
10 Demand
5 Supply
Years
Figure 8: Demand and supply of pulses in India.
Table 14: Projected Supply-demand for pulses in india in different scenarios of

economic growth (6%,7%,8% and 9% and base year is 2009-10)
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26

Demand 21.22 21.43 21.64 21.83 22.03 22.22 22.35
Supply 21.08 21.32 21.56 21.8 22.04 22.28 22.52
Demand 21.92 22.15 22.38 22.58 22.79 23.00 23.19

Supply 21.08 21.32 21.56 21.8 22.04 22.28 22.52
Demand 22.13 22.35 22.56 22.78 22.99 23.18 23.35

Supply 21.08 21.32 21.56 21.80 22.04 22.28 22.52
Demand 23.00 23.23 23.46 23.67 23.88 24.08 24.27

Supply 21.08 21.32 21.56 21.80 22.04 22.28 22.52
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23.00
22.50
22.00
21.50
Demand
21.00
20.50
Supply
20.00
Years
Figure 9: Demand and supply of pulses in India at 6% economic growth.
23.50
23.00
22.50
22.00
21.50
21.00
20.50 Demand
20.00 Supply
19.50
Years
Figure 10: Demand and supply of pulses in India at 7% economic growth

24.00
23.50
23.00
22.50
22.00
21.50
Demand
21.00
20.50 Supply
20.00
19.50
Years
Figure 11: Demand and supply of pulses in India at 8% of economic growth.
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25
24
23
22
21
Demand
20
Supply
19
Years
Figure 12: Demand and supply of pulses in India at 9% of economic growth
Table 12 Demand supply gap from 2019-20 to 20125-26 with respect to the
economic growth of 6%, 7%, 8% and 9%.
Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV
(6% economic (7% economic (8% economic (9% economic
growth) growth) growth) growth)
2019-20 0.23 0.92 1.10 1.97
2020-21 0.19 0.91 1.08 1.96
2021-22 0.16 0.90 1.04 1.95
2022-23 0.12 0.86 1.03 1.91
2023-24 0.08 0.83 1.00 1.88
2024-25 0.02 0.80 0.95 1.85
2025-26 -0.09 0.75 0.87 1.80
Source :Author’s calculations
Demand - supply gap

2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2019 - 20 2020 - 21 2021 - 22 2022 - 23 2023 - 24 2024 - 25 2025 - 26
-0.50
Years
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Figure 13: Demand supply gap from 2019-20 to 2025-26.

Concern for food security
The demand for pulses was found to be increasing due to population growth,
changing tastes and consumption patterns. For meeting food security in long run, we
need to understand the definition of food security. Food security issues depend on
several factors such as growth trends in population, per capita income, urbanization,
changes in taste in the era of globalization and future growth of the bottom-most
section of the population. Food security is defined as economic access to food along
with food production and food availability. Food security is a situation in which both
food supply and effective demand are sufficient to cover nutritional requirements.
Indicators of food security are household food availability, household food
consumption and nutritional status. But the question of food security has a number of
dimensions that go beyond the production, availability and demand for food. It is the
ability of all people to access food at the same time for healthy life. At the household
level, food security refers to the ability of a household to secure adequate food to meet
the dietary needs of all the members of the household. Looking into the supply and
demand balance for pulses, it appeared that demand will be met in future with a
surplus of pulses. But when we talk about the issues of household food security then
per capita net availability is a better measure. Empirical facts from the literature
predicted that per capita production will decline during the next two decades. But the
per capita availability, which is net of stocks and trade, will take care of the increasing
per capita demand of pulses in the country. However, if the per capita production
shows a decline it remains an issue of concern. To improve food security at the
national level we need to either increase agricultural production or increase imports.
Since agricultural growth is limited, imports can act as a commercial means to
improve the country’s food security. Primarily, for domestic agricultural growth we
need to lay emphasis on productivity improvement, public investment in irrigation,
infrastructure development, and efficient use of water and plant nutrition. We also
need to put in resources for research and development (Kumar 1998; Fan et al., 1999;
Evenson et al., 1999 and Mittal, 2006).
Conclusions:
1. In India the total pulse growing area is stagnating from over the years and the
pulses production and productivity also not having significant growth from
the 1949-50 to 2014-15.
2. The pulses demand is increases due to changes in income and expenditure on
commodities.
3. Demand-supply gap is increasing with respect to the increase in economic
growth rates of the country. Because of the increasing the population from
year to year but the production is constant. the growth in production not much
increasing from the 1949-50 to 2014-15.
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4. Importing of the pulses is increasing year by year to meet our food

requirements.
Suggestions and policy implications:

1. To improve food security at the national level, we need to either increase
agricultural production or increase imports of food. Since agricultural growth
is limited, imports can act as a commercial means to improve the country’s
food security. Primarily, for domestic agricultural growth we need to lay
emphasis on productivity improvement, public investment in irrigation,
infrastructure development, and efficient use of water and plant nutrition.
2. There is also need to put in resources for research and development for
increasing agricultural production.
3. Efforts should be made to regulate price through effective price control
mechanisms like MSP and MRP for high value commodities.
4. Long-term food security demands that research in production technology of
non-cereal food, through technology access to the poor small producers,
should be promoted.
5. While increasing population would necessitate increased production of
cereals, despite per capita decline in consumption, there will be significant
increase in demand for vegetables, fruits as well as fodder for animals. It will
necessitate crop diversification.
6. The extend of diversification due to structural changes in consumption will
be compounded by increased demand for export market especially for fruits,
vegetables and marine products as a result of new economic policies and
globalization. Diversification can raise incomes of producers.
7. The diversified food basket will provide the food security and improve
quality of life by adding to nutritional status
References:
[1] Amarasinghe U A, Shah T and Singh O P 2007 Changing Consumption
Patterns: Implications on Food and Water Demand in India, Research Report
119, draft paper, NRLP-IWMI, Culled from www.nrlp.iwmi.org.
[2] Bhalla G S, Hazell P and Kerr K 1999 Prospects for India’s Cereal Supply and
Demand to 2020: Food, Agriculture and the Environment. Discussion Paper
29, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.
[3] Chand R 2009 Demand for Food grains during 11th Plan and towards 2020.
Policy brief, (National Centre for Agricultural Economic and Policy Research,
New Delhi). Culled from www.ncap.res.in.
240
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[4] Chand R 2007 Demand for food grains. Economic and Political Weekly
42:.1013
[5] Evenson, R. E., C. Pray, and M.W. Rosegrant, 1999, “Agricultural Research
and Productivity Growth in India”. IFPRI Research Report No. 109.
(Washington, D.C.International Food Policy Research Institute).
[6] Fan S, Hazell P B R and Thorat S 1999, “Linkages between Government
Spending, Agricultural Growth and Poverty in Rural India”. IFPRI Research
Report 110. (International Food Policy Research
Institute, Washington, D.C.)
[7] GOI 2006 Level and Pattern of Consumer Expenditure, 2004-05. (NSS 61st
Round—July 2004- June 2005), Report No. 508 (61/1.0/1), New Delhi, India,
Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India.
[8] GOI 2006a Population Projections for India and States 2001-2026. Office of
Registrar and Census Commissioner, New Delhi. Culled from
www.nrhmmis.nic.in.
[9] Joshi P K, and Saxena, Raka 2002 “A profile of pulses production in India:
facts, trends and opportunities. Sixty second Annual Conference of the Indian
Society of Agricultural Economics”, Indian Journal of Agricultural
Economics,57(3): 326-339.
[10] Kang M S 2011 Climate change threatens food security. The Hindustan Times
December 7, 2011. Pp: 4.
[11] Kumar P, Joshi P K and Birthal P S 2009 Demand Projections for Food Grains
in India. Agril Econ
Res Rev 22: 237-243.
[12] Kumar, Praduman 1997 ‘Food Security: Supply and Demand Perspective’,
Indian Farming, December, Pp: 4-9.
[13] Kumar P and Mittal S 2006 Agricultural Productivity Trend in India:
Sustainability Issues. Agril
Econ Res Rev(Conf. Spl.)19: 71-88.
[14] Kumar P, Kumar A and Mittal S 2004 Total Factor Productivity of Crop Sector
in the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India: Sustainability Issues Revisited. Indian
Econ Rev 34: 169-201.
[15] Mittal S 2006 Structural Shifts in Demand of Food: Projections for 2020,
Working Paper no. 184, Indian Council for Research on International Economic
Relations, New Delhi.
[16] Mittal S 2007 What Affect Changes in Cereal Consumption? Economic and
political weekly 42: 444-447.
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[17] Reddy A 2004 Consumption Pattern, Trade and Production Potential of

Pulses. Economic and political weekly 39:4854-4860.
[18] Rosegrant M W, Agcaoili-Sombila M and Perez N D 1995 Global Food
Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment 2020, Discussion Paper No.5,
International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C.
[19] Srivastava S K, Sivaramane N, Kumar R, Hasan R and Meena P C 2013
Unraveling Food Basket of Indian Households: Revisiting Underlying Changes
and Future Food Demand, Indian J Agril Econ 68: 535-551.
[20] www.indiastat.com
ANNEXURE-I
Area, production and productivity of pulses in India (1949-50 to 2014-15)
Year Area (M.ha) Production (MT) Productivity (kg/ha)
1949-50 20.20 8.20 405
1950-51 19.09 8.41 441
1951-52 18.78 8.42 448
1952-53 19.85 9.19 463
1953-54 21.73 10.62 489
1954-55 21.91 10.95 500
1955-56 23.22 11.05 476
1956-57 23.32 11.55 495
1957-58 22.54 9.56 424
1958-59 24.31 13.15 541
1959-60 24.83 11.80 475
1960-61 23.56 12.70 539
1961-62 24.24 11.76 485
1962-63 24.27 11.53 475
1963-64 24.19 10.07 416
1964-65 23.88 12.42 520
1965-66 22.72 9.94 438
1966-67 22.12 8.35 377
1967-68 22.65 12.10 534
1968-69 21.26 10.42 490
1969-70 22.02 11.69 531
1970-71 22.53 11.82 524
1971-72 22.15 11.09 501
1972-73 20.92 9.91 474
1973-74 23.43 10.01 427
1974-75 22.02 10.01 455
1975-76 24.45 13.04 494
1976-77 22.98 11.36 494
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1977-78 23.50 11.97 510

1978-79 23.66 12.18 515
1979-80 22.26 8.57 385
1980-81 22.46 10.63 473
1981-82 23.84 11.51 483
1982-83 22.83 11.86 519
1983-84 23.54 12.89 548
1984-85 22.74 11.96 526
1985-86 24.42 13.36 547
1986-87 23.16 11.71 506
Year Area (M.ha) Production (MT) Productivity (kg/ha)
1987-88 21.56 11.04 512
1988-89 23.15 13.85 598
1989-90 23.42 12.86 549
1990-91 24.66 14.27 578
1991-92 22.54 12.01 533
1992-93 22.36 12.81 573
1993-94 22.25 13.30 598
1994-95 23.03 14.04 610
1995-96 22.28 12.31 552
1996-97 22.45 14.24 635
1997-98 22.87 12.98 567
1998-99 23.50 12.16 634
1999-00 21.12 13.42 635
2000-01 20.35 11.08 544
2001-02 22.01 13.37 607
2002-03 20.50 11.13 543
2003-04 23.46 14.91 635
2004-05 22.76 13.13 577
2005-06 22.39 13.38 597
2006-07 22.39 13.38 597
2007-08 23.63 14.76 625
2008-09 22.09 14.57 659
2009-10 23.28 14.66 630
2010-11 26.41 18.24 691
2011-12 24.46 17.09 691
2012-13 23.26 18.34 789
2013-14 25.21 19.25 764
2014-15 23.55 17.15 728
243

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MULTIDISCIPLINARY ADVANCED RESEARCH TRENDS

THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF PULSES AND ITS

K. SOLMON RAJU PAUL

Ch. SATISH KUMAR, B. SARATH BABU

Materials and Methodology

The model was linearized by means of logarithmic transformation, which was

The slope coefficient of B measures the relative changes in Y for a given

Projections for supply of pulses:

Projections for demand of pulses

The demand Projections for the pulses were obtained through; Dt

The household food demand is primarily driven by growth in population,

Results and discussion:

Area, production and productivity of pulse in india

From the below Table 1, Area, production and productivity of pulses

Table 1: Compound Growth Rate of Area, production and productivity.

Total area of pulses in India from 1949-50 to 2014-15

Total production of pulses in India from 1949-50 to 2014-15

Major pulse producing states in India in 2014-15

Table 2: Area, Production and Productivity in major Pulse Producing States

Table 3: Shares of Different Pulse Crops in total Pulse Production of India

Figure 4: Share of major pulse in India

Per Capita Availability of Pulses in India

1977 43.3 2006 32.5

1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2010-11 2014-15

Projection of pulses demand of India and different components of demand for

Demand for pulses:

Direct demand Indirct Demand

Figure 6: Shows component of total demand for pulses.

Table 6: Expenditure elasticity of food commodities (2004-05).

Pulses b 0.51 0.56 0.46

Table 7: Projected population from 2020–26.

Table 8: Projected population growth rate as of March 1, 2001–2026

Demand projection of pulses

Table 9: Projected demand for pulses in india in different scenarios of

2009- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2024- 2025-

Direct House hold

Direct House hold

Direct House hold

Direct House hold

The direct household demand for pulses was projected to be increased to as

Similarly, in third scenario of 8 per cent of economic growth, projections

With the stupendous rise in income (increase in employment opportunities

In the second scenario of study, if economy grows at 7 per cent projections

Total domestic demand for pulses:

Table 10: Total Demand of pulses in India in 2025-26 (Million tonnes).

India has achieved an impressive growth in pulse production. Production of

Table 11: Projections for Supply (Production) of pulses in India (2019-20 to

Table 12: Availability of pulses in India

1986-87 11.71 0.005 0.62 12.33 5.07

Production MT Exports MT Imports MT Total supply MT

Figure 7: availability of pulses in India

Table 13: Demand and supply of pulses from 2007-08 to 2014-15

Demand and supply of pulses in india

Table 14: Projected Supply-demand for pulses in india in different scenarios of

2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26

Demand 21.92 22.15 22.38 22.58 22.79 23.00 23.19

Demand 22.13 22.35 22.56 22.78 22.99 23.18 23.35

Demand 23.00 23.23 23.46 23.67 23.88 24.08 24.27

Figure 10: Demand and supply of pulses in India at 7% economic growth

Demand - supply gap

Figure 13: Demand supply gap from 2019-20 to 2025-26.

4. Importing of the pulses is increasing year by year to meet our food

Suggestions and policy implications: